illegal activities - recent and planned developments hugh skipper
TRANSCRIPT
Illegal activities- recent and planned developments
Hugh Skipper
What I’ll cover
• Recent and planned developments to:
• Drugs• Prostitution• Alcohol and tobacco smuggling• Tax evasion
• Most of these to meet Eurostat requirements
Drugs, background
• Introduced in 2014 Blue Book• Eurostat requirement
• Comparability across member states
• ONS approach now Eurostat approved• Demand based methodology
• User numbers, rather than seizures• 6 drug types
• Full data for 2003 used as base• Projected by user numbers, prices, purity
• Adds £4.9bn to GDP 2013 (0.3%)
Drugs, further developments
• In Blue Book 2015, corrections to• Dollar conversion • Volume measure methodology
• Academic review – now near final• Broadly clean bill of health• Stressed difficulty of accurate measurement
• Recommendations: • Partial adjustment for purity – reduce volatility• Better measure of usage – work with Crime Survey
• Will follow these up• But need to prioritise
Prostitution, background
• Introduced Blue Book 2014• Eurostat requirement
• Now Eurostat approved
• Supply based methodology• Number of prostitutes
• Data for 2004 escalated• Using male 16+ population• Consumer price index
• Adds £5.9bn to GDP 2013 (0.3%)
Prostitution, further developments
• No methods changes in 2015• For 2016 Blue Book, working weeks assumption
• 52 weeks to 40, in line with Netherlands• Eurostat keen for this
• Academic review – now near final• More critical than drugs review
• 52 weeks assumption, 25 clients per week assumption
• But improvements less straightforward than for drugs• Will follow this up
• Again, need to prioritise
Alcohol and tobacco smuggling
• Methodology introduced 2000-01• Volumes from HMRC• Prices from a range of sources• Assumed proportions for different outlets
• Adds £1.3bn to GDP in 2013 (0.1%)• Small revisions in 2015 Blue Book
• Taking numbers consistently through the accounts
• Wider update of sources and methods planned• Review assumed proportions• Assess tax gaps data for wine smuggling
• In co-operation with HMRC
Tax evasion
• Blue Book 2015, major review of methodology• Corporation and income tax evasion
• Previous model from 1998, used 1994 as a base• Differences production v income measures escalated• Small impact on balanced GDP
• New method developed with HMRC• Now Eurostat approved• Good example of co-operation
• Uses HMRC tax gaps data• To estimate unrecorded income/production
• Bigger impact - upward revisions to GDP all years• £5.4bn 2013 (0.3% GDP)
Tax evasion, future plans
• Refine new methods for corporation/income tax• Build understanding of HMRC data• Streamline production
• VAT fraud: explicit estimation for 2016 Blue Book• To meet Eurostat requirement
• Methodology for 2016 approved internally• Uses new income/corporation tax evasion estimates
• Revisions to GDP likely (subject to balancing)
• Continuing development planned• In co-operation with HMRC• E.g. confronting with HMRC VAT gaps
Any questions?