illinois governor rod r. blagojevich climate change advisory group (iccag) modeling of policy...

Illinois Governor Rod R. BlagojevichIllinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich

Climate Change Advisory GroupClimate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG)(ICCAG)

Modeling of Policy Proposals Modeling of Policy Proposals

July 10, 2007July 10, 2007DRAFT – Numbers subject to DRAFT – Numbers subject to

revisionrevision

22

Policy ProposalsPolicy Proposals

Code

Original Number Short Description

Straw Man Estimate of Reductions Mt CO2e

Commercial, Industrial and Agricultural Sub-Group:

CI-05-04 04 Efficiency standards for commercial and industrial boilers and incentives for efficiency upgrades and combined heat and power

3.6

CI-10-21 21 Expand use of no-till farming 0.5

CI-15-03 03 Encourage or require reductions in emissions of high GWP gases ?

CI-25-00 00 Increase Traditional Recycling Diversion Rate with Municipal Goals and by Stimulating Demand for Recycled Materials

2.7

CI-30-11 11 Encourage or require methane capture from coal mines, landfills, livestock operations and wastewater treatment plants

2.56

CI-35-00 00 New - Land use offset requirement ?

CI-40-02 02 Programs to encourage forest management, reforestation, tree- and grass-planting

0.16

Cap & Trade Sub-Group:

CT-05-12 12 Carbon Offset for Electric Generation

5.2

CT-10-16 16 State-level cap and trade program

Up to 72.6

33


Code



Electricity and Power Sub-Group:

EP-05-05 05 CO2 emission performance standards for electricity generation or an emissions portfolio standard

9.3

EP-10-42 42 Energy conservation and efficiency programs for existing state facilities 0.3

EP-15-00 00 Enhanced Energy Efficiency Programs

37.4

EP-20-00 00 Enhanced Renewable Portfolio Standard 15.8

EP-30-33 33 Phase-in of Energy Efficiency Standards for Light Bulbs Policy Type: Regulatory technology standard

6.8

EP-35-13 13 Establish residential and commercial energy efficiency construction codes beyond International Code Council model standards

4.3

EP-40-07 07 Small Renewable Distributed Generation: rules, legislation, incentives 1.9

EP-45-08 08 Energy efficiency standards for appliances and equipment 2.9

EP-50-09 09 Carbon capture and storage portfolio standard 9.8 to 12.6

44


Code



Transportation Sub-Group:

TR-05-44 44 Fuel efficiency &/or low carbon fuel requirements for government vehicles. 0.08

TR-10-18 18 GHG Emissions Standards for Cars (CA Vehicle Emissions Standards) 8.5 to 9.4

TR-15-19 19 Incentives for Fuel Efficient Vehicles

1.5 to 4.5

TR-20-20 20 Low Carbon Fuel Standard 5.2 to 5.7

TR-25-69 69 Passenger and freight rail upgrades 0.14

TR-30-17 17 Implement smart growth initiatives and expansion of mass transit 0.3 to 0.4

55

Portfolio ScenariosPortfolio Scenarios

Portfolio Runs:Portfolio Runs: (In addition to the Reference Case) (In addition to the Reference Case)

All strategies approved for modeling by the All strategies approved for modeling by the ICCAG (“All-In”) excluding CT-05-12.ICCAG (“All-In”) excluding CT-05-12.• (Note – CT-10-16 included in “All In” but CT-05-12 (Note – CT-10-16 included in “All In” but CT-05-12

excluded at present)excluded at present) All-In with linkage to the RGGI states.All-In with linkage to the RGGI states. All-In: Assume high oil and natural gas prices All-In: Assume high oil and natural gas prices

(based on RGGI high prices)(based on RGGI high prices) All-In minus the Cap and Trade (CT-10-16) All-In minus the Cap and Trade (CT-10-16)

proposalproposal

66

Optional Runs: Optional Runs: (if time and resources permit)(if time and resources permit)

For each run all Policies with the following changesFor each run all Policies with the following changes ::

1.1. Minus proposal EP-50-09, CCS Portfolio Standard.Minus proposal EP-50-09, CCS Portfolio Standard.

2.2. Minus cap and trade plus a modification of Proposal EP-05-05, Minus cap and trade plus a modification of Proposal EP-05-05, Carbon Performance Standards, to include existing sources as well as Carbon Performance Standards, to include existing sources as well as new sources (effectively Carbon Performance Standard replaces Cap new sources (effectively Carbon Performance Standard replaces Cap and Trade). and Trade).

3.3. Apply cap and trade to existing sources only (carbon performance Apply cap and trade to existing sources only (carbon performance standards still apply to new sources). standards still apply to new sources).

4.4. For Proposal TR-10-18, California Vehicle Emissions Standards, For Proposal TR-10-18, California Vehicle Emissions Standards, assume change to vehicle purchase price as per auto manufacturers’ assume change to vehicle purchase price as per auto manufacturers’ projections. projections.

5.5. With Proposals CI-40-02 (Tree Planting), CI-10-21 (No-till Farming), With Proposals CI-40-02 (Tree Planting), CI-10-21 (No-till Farming), and CI-30-11 (Methane Capture) eligible as offset projects under Cap and CI-30-11 (Methane Capture) eligible as offset projects under Cap and Trade but not eligible for other new incentives. and Trade but not eligible for other new incentives.

Portfolio ScenariosPortfolio Scenarios

77

Illinois GHG Emissions – Base CaseIllinois GHG Emissions – Base Case

Illinois GHG Emissions - Reference Case

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mt

CO

2e

Agriculture &ForestryWaste &WastewaterPower Sector

FreightTransportPassengerTransportIndustrial

Commercial

Residential

Trajectory toTarget

Target - 237 Mt CO2e

88

Illinois GHG Emissions- with PoliciesIllinois GHG Emissions- with Policies

Illinois GHG Emissions - Reference Case

(50,000)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mt

CO

2e

Agriculture &Forestry

Sequestering

Waste &Wastewater

Power Sector

FreightTransport

PassengerTransport

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

All except Cap &Trade

All In with C&T

All In with C&T &RGGI

99

Illinois GHG Emissions- with PoliciesIllinois GHG Emissions- with Policies

GHG Emissions with Policy Portfolios: (kt CO2e)2000 2010 2020

Reference Case 285,708 293,494 326,007 All In except C&T 285,708 285,483 294,067 All In with C&T (2) (2) (2) All In with C&T& RGGI (2) (2) (2)

1010

Policy “Leakage”Policy “Leakage”

A portion of emission reductions A portion of emission reductions associated with some policies may occur associated with some policies may occur outside of Illinois.outside of Illinois.

Model tracks emissions in Illinois, Model tracks emissions in Illinois, surrounding region and balance of surrounding region and balance of continent.continent.

Additional analysis will be provided to Additional analysis will be provided to identify policies subject to such “leakage”identify policies subject to such “leakage”

1111

Policy “Leakage”Policy “Leakage”

Initial policies identified as affected by “leakage”Initial policies identified as affected by “leakage” Electric energy efficiency policies – power may still be Electric energy efficiency policies – power may still be

generated for sale outside of Illinois.generated for sale outside of Illinois.

1212

Questions?Questions?

illinois governor rod r. blagojevich climate change advisory group (iccag) modeling of policy...

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