illinois greenhouse gas emissions inventory and projections: 1990-2020 meeting of the illinois...

Illinois Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections: 1990-2020

Meeting of the Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group

300 West Adams St., 2nd Floor, Chicago, IL

February 22, 2007

Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group

2Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group

Topics to Cover

• Data Sources and the Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT)

• Greenhouse Gases in Illinois and the U.S.

• Illinois Greenhouse Gas Projections to 2020

• Discussion


CAIT overview:

• State-level data available for 6 Kyoto gases across the economy

• CAIT based on EPA’s Emissions Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP) Tools

• Does not include int’l bunker fuels and land use change and forestry

CAIT-US Sector and Gas Coverage

Sector CO2 CH4 N2O F-Gases

Energy

Electric Generation

X X X

Residential X X X

Commercial X X X

Industrial X X X

Transportation X X X

Fugitive Emissions

X

Industrial Processes X X

Agriculture X X

Waste X X

CAIT is available free at: http://cait.wri.org


Federal data, tools and state proxies used

CAIT-U.S. Proxy Data, Sources and Comments by Sector

Sector Agency Source Proxy Data Comments

Electric Generation, Residential, Commercial, Industrial & Transport

Energy Information Administration (EIA)Federal Highway Administration

State level fuel consumption

2001 Non-CO2 data used to supplement missing data, some mis-assignment of emissions from jet fuel

Fugitive Emissions US EPA Estimates based on state coal production data

Oil and natural gas processing emissions are excluded

Industrial Processes U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)Directory of Chemical Producers (SRI 2000)

National data assigned by population (HFCs), state-level shipments (SF6)

No data for certain production processes, data anomalies present at state level

Agriculture US Department of Agriculture (USDA)Commercial Fertilizers Report, Fertilizer Institute

State level crop and livestock production data

2001 data used as proxy for 2002 and 2003 due to anomalies

Waste US EPA National data assigned by population

Industrial waste water methane data are excluded

Data uncertainties have only a small effect on aggregate state emissions


Topics to Cover




• Discussion


IL is a big emitter; electricity & transport lead

CO2

85%

N2O9%

CH4

4%F-Gases

2%

Electricity Generation30%

Industrial14%

Commercial5%

Industrial Processes

5%

Residential10%

Agriculture9%

Transportation24%

Waste2%

Fugitive Emissions

1%

• Total Illinois GHG emissions 2003: 274.7 million metric tonnes

• 5th largest GHG emitting state in the U.S.

• Roughly equal to total emissions of the Netherlands

IL GHGs by Gas (2003) IL GHGs by Sector (2003)


IL emissions grew faster than U.S.

GHG Emissions Trends in Illinois and the U.S., 1990-2003

Illinois 1990 2003 Growth Annual Rate

Total (MtCO2Eq) 237.3 274.9 15.8% 1.1%

Electricity Generation 56.3 85.9 52.5% 3.3%

Residential 25.6 26.4 3.0% 0.2%

Commercial 12.5 12.6 1.1% 0.1%

Industrial 44.9 38.4 -14.6% -1.2%

Transportation 55.3 65.5 18.5% 1.3%

Fugitive Emissions 4.2 1.9 -55.6% -6.1%

Industrial Processes 3.5 13.1 277.2% 10.8%

Agriculture 25.9 24.4 -5.7% -0.5%

Waste 9.2 6.8 -25.8% -2.3%

U.S. 1990 2003 Growth Annual Rate

Total (MtCO2Eq) 6,108.9 6,959.1 13.9% 1.0%

Electricity Generation 1,803.6 2,272.2 26.0% 1.8%

Residential 338.0 378.8 12.1% 0.9%

Commercial 222.6 235.8 5.9% 0.4%

Industrial 1,082.2 1,065.4 -1.6% -0.1%

Transportation 1,460.0 1,818.4 24.6% 1.7%

Fugitive Emissions 254.9 217.4 -14.7% -1.2%

Industrial Processes 301.1 304.1 1.0% 0.1%

Agriculture 439.6 439.1 -0.1% 0.0%

Waste 210.0 194.8 -7.2% -0.6%


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Mil

lio

n T

on

ne

s C

O2

Eq

.

IndustrialProcesses

FugitiveEmissions

Waste

Commercial

Residential

Agriculture

Industrial

Transport

ElectricGeneration

Emissions growth has varied

Illinois GHG Emission Trends by Sector 1990-2003

National RecessionsUnusually Warm Winter


Topics to Cover




• Discussion


Projections methodology:

• Transportation, Residential, Commercial and Industrial sector growth rates are based on EIA projections for energy use in the East North Central region (IL, IN, MI, OH and WI)

• Electric generation and non-energy sector growth rates are derived from historic trends

• Illinois total GHG emissions are projected to increase at an annual rate of 1.00%


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

IL G

HG

Em

issi

on

s (T

ho

usa

nd

Met

ric

To

nn

es C

O2

Eq

.)

Actual Projected

IL GHGs projected to be 326 MtCO2e by 2020

Illinois actual and projected GHG Emissions 1990-2020

Best Guess:37.2% above 1990 levels = 88 MtCO2e

Low

High

Best Guess


EIP could cut 22.9 million tonnes from projected emissions by 2020

1990 levels

Illinois actual and projected GHG Emissions with Energy Independence Plan measures 1990-2020

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

IL G

HG

Em

issio

ns (

tho

usan

d m

etr

ic t

on

nes C

O2e)

Natural gas efficiency programs

Residential building code

RPS + EEPS

Biofuels (high)

Biofuels (low)

Baseline & Projection

1990 levels

26% below best guess case in 2020

Actual Projected


Discussion

Questions and Comments

illinois greenhouse gas emissions inventory and projections: 1990-2020 meeting of the illinois...

Documents