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Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC. Climate Change in the Heartland. Eugene S. Takle Director, Climate Science Program Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
Climate Change in the Heartland
Eugene S. TakleDirector, Climate Science ProgramProfessor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric SciencesProfessor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of AgronomyIowa State University
Ames, Iowa [email protected]
Heartland Regional RoundtableNutrient Management for Water Protection
in Highly Productive Systems of the Heartland Lied Center, Nebraska City
June 8-10, 2010
Outline
Observed global changes in carbon dioxide and temperature
Projected future changes in global and US temperatures and precipitation
Future climate change for Iowa and the US Midwest
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Global Carbon Emissions (Gt)
Actual emissions are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 1990
Forcing Factors in the Global Climate
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Increased Greenhouse Increased Greenhouse Gases => Global HeatingGases => Global Heating
Increasing Increasing greenhouse greenhouse gases increases gases increases heating of the heating of the EarthEarth
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Warming of the Lower and Upper Atmosphere Produced by Natural and Human Causes
Note that greenhouse gases have a unique temperature signature, with strong warming in the upper troposphere, cooling in the lower stratosphere and strong warming over the North Pole. No other warming factors have this signature.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Global Mean Surface Temperature
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Global Mean Surface Temperature
I II III IV
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Balanced fuel sourcesEnergy intensive
More environmentally friendly
If current emission trends continue, global temperature rise will exceed worst case scenarios projected in 2007
FI =fossil intensive
IPCC 2007
IPCC 2007
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
IPCC 2007
IPCC 2007
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Trend of increase in occurrence of heavy precipitation over the 20th C is consistent with increasing GHG concentrations.
Frequency of intense precipitation events is likely to increase in the future.
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
MitigationPossible
AdaptationNecessary
AdaptationNecessary
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
MitigationPossible
AdaptationNecessary
AdaptationNecessary
Farmers install more drainage tile
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
AdaptationNecessary
AdaptationNecessary
MitigationPossible
The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
AdaptationNecessary
AdaptationNecessary
MitigationPossible
The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisionsFarmers plant earlier,
choose longer season hybrids
Arctic Sea-Ice Decline
Decline in Greenland Ice Mass
Equivalent to about 5 ft of ice over the state of Iowa each year
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Insured Losses from Weather-Related
Catastrophes
1980-2005
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Temperature rises in regions having thunderstorms likely to experience increased occurrence of lightning
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Findings of the US National Assessment
Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced Climate changes are underway in the United States and are
projected to grow Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are
expected to increase Climate change will stress water resources Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm
surge Risks to human health will increase Climate change will interact with many social and
environmental stresses Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in
climate and ecosystems Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices
made today
Adapted from Folland et al. [2001]
Observed Summer (JJA) Daily Maximum Temperature Changes (K), 1976-2000
Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 13
1988: 10
2009: 0
Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 13
1988: 10
2009: 0
6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years
State-Wide Average Data
State-Wide Average Data
31.5”
37.5”
19% increase
State-Wide Average Data
Totals above 40”
State-Wide Average Data
Totals above 40” 8 years2 years
Cedar Rapids Data
Cedar Rapids Data
28.0” 37.0”32% increase
Cedar Rapids Data
7.8” 51% increase 11.8”
Cedar Rapids Data
20.2” 34% increase 26.8”
“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Cedar Rapids Data
4.2 days 57% increase 6.6 days
Cedar Rapids Data
4.2 days 57% increase 6.6 days
2
11Years having more than 8 days
Relationship of Streamflow to Precipitation in Current and Future Climates
SWAT (RegCM2): 21 % increase in precip -> 50% increase in streamflow
DrainMod (RegCM2): 24 % increase in precip -> 35% increase in tile drainage
DrainMod (HIRHAM): 32 % increase in precip -> 80% increase in tile drainage
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
es = 17.65 mb es = 19.99 mb13% increase
State-Wide Average Data
Des Moines Airport Data
2009
2010
Des Moines Airport Data
2009
2010
Average 1976-2005: 3.2 days/yr
Des Moines Airport Data
2009
2010
Average 1976-2005: 3.2 days/yr
Caution: Not adjusted for possible urban influence
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Temperature
*Estimated from IPCC reports
*Estimated from IPCC reports
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Precipitation
*Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Other
Iowa Agricultural Producers’ Adaptations to Climate Change
Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season hybrids, harvest later
Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller weather windows
More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for higher yields
Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile is being installed, closer spacing, sloped surfaces
Fewer extreme heat events: higher planting densities, fewer pollination failures
Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by moist conditions. more problems with fall crop dry-down, wider bean heads for faster harvest due to shorter harvest period during the daytime.
Drier autumns: delay harvest to take advantage of natural dry-down conditions
HIGHER YIELDS!!Is it genetics or climate? Likely
some of each.
Successful Farming Jan 2010Dan Looker
For More Information Contact me directly:
[email protected] Current research on regional climate and climate
change is being conducted at Iowa State University under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Programhttp://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website:http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/
Or just Google Eugene Takle