images of bioeconomy - futures of a complex world¤ivi pelli, elena kulikova, timo karjalainen &...

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UEF // University of Eastern Finland

Futures of a Complex World

12–13 June 2017, Turku, Finland

Päivi Pelli, Elena Kulikova, Timo Karjalainen & Teppo Hujala

FUTURES IMAGES OF A BIOECONOMY


Outline

Motivation to study bioeconomy images – futures research perspective

Young Leadership Programme as a case context

Analytical frame

Research design and methods

Results (preliminary)

To conclude

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Bioeconomy - what is it?

New wave of economy (Finnish Bioeconomy Strategy 2014)

Biosociety after information society (Mannermaa)

Service society (Malaska)

Molecular economy (Linstone)

Renewed, refreshed, reborn sector

Transformed system


Motivation to study bioeconomy images – futures research perspective

•Bioeconomy = evolving concept, various, ambiguous interpretations

– Policy push, market pull

– Technology and economy drivers often ruling

– Societal transformation and sustainability aspects somewhat suppressed

•Systemic, transformational nature of the domain

– Understanding calls for wide contemplation

– Futures thinking may be beneficial

•Experiments and pedagogic exercises are needed

•Important to know what are the practical opportunities and limitations to advance futures consciousness and bioeconomy understanding

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Our empirical case

The Young Leadership Programme on Forest-Based Bioeconomy: Focus on Russia (YLP) 2014-2016 was aimed at young professionals working in the research and development, governance, administration or business side of the forest sector, or a related area. The 5-day programme offered a unique opportunity for young professionals with leadership potential to learn about the emerging opportunities and challenges facing forest-based bioeconomyin Russia, interact with a network of global peers and experts, and share practical experience through group exercises.

3 components of the programme: information + leadership + scenarios.

http://www.efi.int/portal/capacity_building/ylp/


Key characteristics of the empirical case

Tensions for elaborating futures in the context of the Young Leadership Programme on Forest-Based Bioeconomy: Focus on Russia (YLP):

•focus on one natural resources sector mainly, i.e. forests, and the challenge of thinking in “sectors” while discussing about “a bioeconomy”;

•the challenge of developing bioeconomy alongside the parallel renewal of the traditional forest industry and emergence of new bio(technological) industries;

•the challenges of different European/Finnish and Russian contexts for developing the forest-based sector / bioeconomy.

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Research questions

1. What are the pronounced and hidden knowledge interests for a bioeconomy, and how are those reflected in organizers’ and participants’ futures thinking?

2. How do the actors perceive futures information and how did the training activities support constructing futures consciousness?

3. What are the opportunities and limitations of futures-oriented bioeconomy training to advance wide understanding of the concept among young professionals?


Research design, methods

•Document analysis of the preparation and implementation of the YLP, including feedback reports

•Interviews of the organizers and key contributing partners (5)

•Online survey for the participants (31 responses of total 57 participants, response rate 54%)

•Follow-up interviews with participants (9)

•Qualitative analysis

– Extraction of futures-meaningful viewpoints

– Interpretative assessment

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Analytical framework for enquiry

One future versus futures in plural

3P – possible, probable, preferable

Time horizon(s) and uncertainties

Nature of data and information required

Definition of the system boundaries

Incremental versus transformational change

Futures thinking – futures literacy/fluency – futures consciousness

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Analytical framework for interpretations

Technical Dialectic CriticalFutures focus Focus on probable Focus on possible Focus on preferable

Time scales and uncertainties

Target to as accurate / as useful as possible timescales, evidence-based projections

Open timescales, including both short, medium and long term perspectives

Open, including both long-term (visions), medium and short-term (actions)

Motives to manage (risks) to understand (different ways to assess futures)

to reveal (hidden basic assumptions)

Systematic data (multiple angles,

multiple sources)

Empirical evidence (past and present trends and testing them with “what if” questions)

Dialogue between different knowledge areas / disciplines

Discourse analysis, acknowledging power structures...

multi-disciplinary interdisciplinary transdisciplinary

Systems and multiple levels

Modeling, causalities, multivariate analysis

Insight of different models; interpretation and comparing of alternatives, new conceptualizations

De- and re-constructing the future; visioning;emancipation, action taking

Futures awareness Futures thinking Futures literacy/fluency Futures consciousness

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Survey results on components’ importance and YLP success

– Z-scores (n=33-34)

1 New information and knowledge2 Networks3 Tools for leadership4 Ideas about possible changes and emerging issues5 Practical examples (Forest sector North Karelia)6 Overall assessment (personal)7 Overall assessment (organization)


Survey results on statements about a forest-based bioeconomy

– Z-scores (n=33-34)

1 I have a clear understanding of BE2 BE realization depends primarily on decisions outside the forest sector3 My organization has an active role in BE4 Major steps towards BE will be taken by 2030 5 We have sufficient evidence on future of BE6 New BE sectors are already taking shape7 Consumers and general public have an important role in making BE real8 New technologies will lead to disruptive, radical changes in the forest sector9 A forest-based BE will mainly take place in local level10 Role of the forest sector will increase in the future

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Preliminary findings (1/3)

Knowledge interests for a bioeconomy in this case context focused on instrumental knowledge

•Experts providing data and knowledge, proven information, evidence based analyses

•Direct developments towards the (FB) vision and goals

Yet, the idea of a paradigmatic change is a goal… but the level and nature of the change remains unspecified further and thus discoursive

Interdisciplinarity and stakeholder involvement are acknowledged, but systemic view appears rather shallow



Knowledge interests and futures thinking:

•YLP has supported a visionary thinking towards a forest-based economy and critical thinking to assess the developments based on scientific / expert-based analysis

•YLP gave the participants tools to think of a bioeconomy and issues related to it

•The task after target setting is to communicate the preferable vision for a larger audience in a convincing way

•Forming new types of partnerships and co-creation of a desirable future are not that visibly present

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What types of futures information was there?

•Focus on probable (past and present developments / evidence) and preferable – overall the three perspectives (P…) are difficult to grasp and would require more practical practice.

•Timescale: both short, medium, long term… but long may be as short as 30 years; nature of futures information on different time scales is not seen to change much, which reflects a need to strengthen futures consciousness

•Multiple angles and sources: yes, but… the operational environment is overall perceived rather sector-specifically and could be opened up

•System definitions: mainly present-day forest-based sector extended with the new products and technologies already visible within this sector; no foresight to behind the corner


Summary of the preliminary findings

•Which means were used: Knowledge-sharing via high-level experts, networking with the experts and among the peer group of young professionals, contemplating leadership competences and exercising leadership skills, group work on scenarios

•How well they performed:

– Very well to build confidence among the participants (young leaders of the future), to build visionary thinking and leadership thinking

– Critically for: opening up the wide futures consciousness, transformation challenges, trans-sectoral, systemic thinking?

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What contributed to the participants’ benefits

Composition of the programme: lectures and interaction, information and group work

Open, supportive atmosphere: ambitious participants with inner motivation, peer-to-peer interactions, high-level speakers

In the scenario work (group work) the scenarios as such were not the main outcome, but the practice of working with such task – learning to work together, to organize things, to solve issues, to master also the uncertainties and confusion of the exercise


To conclude

- Limitations: on a one-week training participants are prone to maintain the perceptive structures that they originally had

- achieving higher futures consciousness would require more confrontation;but then the networking and leadership benefits might be hampered

- Next steps: follow-up meetings, continuation of offering futures information to further nurture the evolving futures consciousness

- Lessons learnt and contribution beyond this case context: there are relevant opportunities and challenges in disseminating futures information, supporting shared sense-making and initiating futures thinking in an international collaboration

- Suggestions: more diverse groups; practical, interactive tasks; thought-evoking interventions

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Thank You!

images of bioeconomy - futures of a complex world¤ivi pelli, elena kulikova, timo karjalainen &...

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