‘Imagining 2020’: key demographics

Cheshire & Warrington Sub-regional Conference 11 July 2014

Content

• What are the shared challenges?

• Where are we now?• What can we do?• Case study – alcohol

use

What are the shared challenges?We’re changing• Aging population• Becoming heavier• Drinking more• StressResult• Increase in long term

conditions• Increased use of services

Financial constraints

Increased demand

Services

1992 2012 2031

Births 4186 4013 ↓ 9.6%Deaths 3780 3420 ↓ 9.0%Population 342k 371k ↑ 8.3%Smokers 28% 17% ↓ 40%Heart adm. 1347 1209 ↓ 10%Lung cancer 216 246 ↑ 14%Bowel cancer 160 267 ↑ 67% 374Breast cancer 165 323 ↑ 96% 481Diabetics 5581 17268 ↑ 309% 28955Drug users 319 1139 ↑ 380% 1959

Cheshire East Age Structure

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-4950-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-59

80-84

85-89

90+

1991 to 2011 2011 to 2031

During the next twenty years there will be substantial rises in the number of people over 80,

and fewer people aged 30 to 55

Example from Cheshire East

Implications of an aging population• More dementia

• Increased cancer

• Increased comorbidity

• Loss of function

: Warrington

• In 2012, 6.8% adults estimated to have diabetes, • by 2020, if current trends continue this could be 7.6% • by 2030, 8.5%

2005-07 2006-08 2007-09 2008-10 2009-11 2010-120

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

187

162

144

134

144

156

52 4944 42 41 38

Number of deaths from suicide and injury of undetermined intent (Males & Females, All Ages): Merseyside & Cheshire

Male Deaths

Female Deaths

1 Year Figures Based on 3 Year Average

Aver

age

Num

ber o

f Dea

ths

44% rise in cancer over next 10 years (ageing and PREVENTABLE lifestyle factors)13/15th when compared to similar LAs

• Early detection of cancer may not be improving

• Challenge of Bowel Screening

The Lifetime Risk of Developing Cancer in Cheshire East

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

2002-04 2003-05 2004-06 2005-07 2006-08 2007-09 2008-10 2009-11 2010-12 2011-13 2012-14 2013-15 2014-16 2015-17 2016-18

Perc

entage

of the

Who

le P

opulation

Male Female Persons Male (Projection) Females (Projection) Persons (Projection)

Cancer key facts- Cheshire East

Where are we now?April 2012 – the All Party Parliamentary Group on Primary Care &

Public Health held a roundtable discussion on: Ten years on from Wanless, how “fully-engaged” are we?

• some success in meeting smoking cessation targets

• but a rise in other serious public health challenges (obesity, alcohol)

• huge reductions in treatment waiting times (although is this changing?)

• but GP consultation rates have risen as people still do not self-care

• no shift in resources out of hospitals

• no switch of activity from GPs to pharmacies • we still do not have no good information to support personal decisions

and the ability to have consistency of care • ‘’ the rhetoric of engagement has risen – but paternalistic services

continue and the public remains dependent on these’’

What can we do????• Move from cure to prevention• People at the centre, instead of “what's the matter”

ask “what matters to you”• Healthy people, healthy place, healthy communities• Healthy policy (health equity and health impact)• Collaboration (service improvement, efficiency,

resilience)• Agree priorities for action

Case study: Alcohol

MAKING THE MOST OF THE OPPORTUNITIES

Alcohol Use – Trends in Related Harm

Alcohol misuse harms families and communities(source: PHE)

Alcohol Use – The response(source: PHE)

The Response - Prevention(source: PHE)

The Response - Partnership(source: PHE)

Questions and comments ?

Eileen O’MearaDirector of Public Health and Public Protection DepartmentHalton Borough Council / Runcorn Town Hall / Heath Road / Runcorn / Cheshire / WA7 5TD

Email: Eileen.omeara@halton.gov.uk Tel : 0151 511 6848