imagining a green sustainable comox valley, 2034

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Imagining a Green Sustainable Comox Valley, 2034

Guy Dauncey Earth Week 2014

We have come a long way from this…


To this…


but…


Smithore Dreamstime.com

We have also come to this…


GDP =GrossDepletion of the

Planet


Gross Depletion of the Planet

+ Yield - Costs= Profit



Dead albatross filled with plastic garbage on Midway Island. Chris Jordan.

Garth Lenz


Liquefied Natural Gas - also a Fossil Fuel


As we burn the fossil fuels…

Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

CO2 CO2CO2

CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second

Climate Emergency


Ireland’s great winter storm of 2014

The last time the world was 3°C warmer

the sea level was 25 metres higher

2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres

1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

1 metre sea-level rise

http://flood.firetree.net

20 metre sea-level rise

http://flood.firetree.net

We have also come to this…


And this…

And this…

The power of our vision

must be stronger than

the power of our fears


“The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.”

― Eleanor Roosevelt


So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future

for the Comox Valley?


www.waterbucket.ca

Ten Themes1: The New Green Economy2: Poverty and Inequality3. Transportation without Fossil Fuels4: The Return of Nature5: Food and Farming6: The Streets Where We Live7: Suburban Life in 20348: Affordable Housing9: Energy without Fossil Fuels10: How Do We Make It Happen?


Moving from a CAPITALIST

to a

COOPERATIVEEconomy

1: A New Green Economy


A COOPERATIVEEconomy

Businesses flourishing in harmony with other businesses, workers,

community, nature and the world.

Emilia Romagna, Italy• Population 4.4 million• $$$, top ten European regions• 32% self-employed• 76% work in small • Business with 4-5 workers• Italy’s 4th largest exporter• 400,000 enterprises• 15,000 cooperatives• Strong tradition of reciprocity, regional economy mutual support system, financed by a 0.4% levy on sales • High density of banks• Regional credit system with close ties to local enterprises• Lowest unemployment• Highest rate of citizen satisfaction in Italy

Emilia Romagna, Italy

There are half a million businesses and coops in the region, which pay a 0.4% levy on sales to local inter-business organizations.

In return, they receive support with financing, training, research, development strategies and export efforts.

In 2034, Comox Valley communities have set up Village Business Networks

Businesses pay a 0.4% levy on sales to financial mutual support and cooperation.


Cooperatives have set up their own Mutual Support Network and pay 3% of their profits into a Cooperatives Development Fund

Businessesare making

Wage Differential Reduction Pledges

from 30:1 to 10:1


Many businesses are becoming Benefit Corporations


Most businesses have Women Directors on the Board

“Companies with more Women Board Directors experience higher financial performance,

according to latest Catalyst Bottom Line Report.”


All businesses are incentivized to acquire

Green Business Certification


Youth Enterprise Initiatives flourish


There are many community gardens and Farmer’s Markets


All local banks and credit unions have embraced Values-Based Banking

The banks in the Global Alliance for Banking on Values have assets that exceed $60 billion, and touch the lives of

10 million people in 25 countries.


All banks and credit unions offer Debt Circles


Many people have joined an interest-free JAK Bank


Community Currencies are flourishing


Time-banking is flourishing

VANCOUVER


Micro-Lending is flourishing


WIR Inter-Business Banking is giving businesses credit when they need it


There is a publicly-owned State Bank of BC

Creates new creditHolds public taxes and feesTargets strategic investmentsClearing bank for other banksProfits recycled, public benefit

Modeled on The Bank of North Dakota


2: Poverty and Inequality


Basic Income for allhas been established

A Basic Income is an income unconditionally guaranteed to all on an individual basis, without means test or work requirement.


Financed by:•Reallocation of pensions, unemployment benefit, social security and welfare•Direct taxation•Indirect taxation on consumption (GST)•Financial Transactions Tax


Student Debt has been eliminated

The Sharing Economy is

thriving


A Good Minimum Wage is Normal…


Debt CirclesFair TaxationBasic Income Co-operativesProfit-sharing

Affordable HousingStudent Debt SolutionThe Sharing Economy

Increased Minimum WageAbility to grow your own food

3: Transportation without Oil

We love you mama

Mama, waaah! Where are you?

The Joyful Pedestrian

Toronto Walking School Bus

Neighbourhood Walkability Auditwww.walklive.org


The Joyful Cyclist


In 2034 there are long-distance safe bike routes and trails throughout the Comox Valley

In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle

Safe bike lanes and routes Good bike parking Cycling education in schools

Electric Bikes

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

The Copenhagen Wheel

Tony’s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com


Luminescent bike lane at night

The Joyful Transit Rider

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com BC Transit’s Future Bus

Free transit, paid in city taxesFrom 1996-2006 ridership increased

from 1,000 to 12,600 riders a dayPayment is now $1 per ride.

Hasselt, Belgium

Real-time electronic bus stops

Creative Bus Shelters

On-Line Electric Bus, South Korea

Fast-Charge Electric Bus, Los Angeles

Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment


Small local connector buses

See

Victoria Carshare Coop650 members share 23 vehicles

www.victoriacarshare.ca

The Happy Car Sharer

Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

Vehicles owners earnup to $300 a month

Top

Hiroko EV

Renault Twizy EV

2 seats, 100 km range

$10,600 + $65/month battery lease

Top

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range


Smart Electric – 135 km range

Mitsubishi MiEV – 150 km range

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Toyota RAV4 EV - 148 km range

Tesla Model-X: 300-400 km range

10,000 km = 1,500 kWh1,500 kwh @ 10 cents = $13 a month

Gas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month

The Cost of Power for Electric Cars

EV Bargain!!10 times cheaper

to run!

1.5 kW solar PV $6,000

5% 25 year mortgage on $6,000 = $35 a month

Gas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month


No fossil fuel pollution = clear skies


4: The Return of Nature


Semiahmoo Transit StationSurrey, BC, Canada

Bringing greenery into our towns and cities…


www.greenovergrey.com


Musee du Quai Branly, ParisPatrick Blanc, Le Mur Vegetal

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Athenaeum Hotel, London Patrick Blanc


Rainwater Storage


School playing grounds…awaiting transformation


Brooklyn Public School 216 Arturo Toscanini, New York

Turning concrete schoolyards…


into Green Schoolyards


Schools Growing Their Own Food


Bev Byerley www.bevbyerley.com

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Salmon Return to the Tsolum after 50 Years


www.bccf.com

Guy Dauncey 2014Guy Dauncey 2014www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com 5: Food and Farming

Food imported to Vancouver Island: 95%


Boulevards being ‘vegetablized’

FARM VILLAGESThe Way of the Future

A lot of Vancouver Island farmland is growing hay

Good farmlandsits empty

Young peoplewant to farm

Using small-scale intensive organic horticulture, farmers can earn to earn up to

$25,000 an acre, grossing up to $80,000 a year profit per small farm.

Throughout the world, in every culture, farmers have lived in small farm villages

Imagine…

By 2034, on any farm of more than (eg) 40 hectares, 1 hectare may be rezoned as a

Community Farm Village and additional acreage may be leased or sold

for farming purposes.

Community Farmland ZoneAllows development of a clustered Farm Village with controls to ensure the land is farmed:

A: Community Farmland Zone Bylaw

B: Farming Covenant registered with land

C: Strata Farm Fees – if land is not farmed

D: Registered Housing Agreement restricting residential units to farmers and their families.

43 acres $564,900

43 acres $955,000

100 Hectare FarmAnywhere, BC

100 Hectare FarmAnywhere, BC Farm

Village

100 Hectare FarmAnywhere, BC Farm Village

Cost of land: $100,000?Shared by 5 families = $20,000 each

Cost per small starter self-built house: $150,000

100 Hectare FarmAnywhere, BC Farm Village

Cost of land: $100,000?Shared by 5 families = $20,000 each

Cost per small starter self-built house: $150,000

Leasedor

purchased

Leasedor

purchased

Also, in the future …

In 2034, land zoned agricultural carries a requirement from the time of purchase

that at least

25% of the land be used to grow food …

or be leased to someone who will.

Deep in many of our hearts is a longing to recover what we have lost.

FamilyCommunity

Honest hard workHarmony with Nature

Sara Dent, www.farmlove.orgLove…

Babies…

School...

Sara Dent, www.farmlove.orgCelebration

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com 6: The Streets Where We Live


London: a Garden Bridge across the ThamesThomas Heatherwick


The HighlineConverted Railway,

New York


Hamburg – Hiding the Autobahn


Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea

Before and After


Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea


Vancouver’s Green Streets Program



Portland, Oregon www.CityRepair.org


Density combined with greenery creates urban delight


Hundertwasserhaus, Vienna


7: The Suburbs of the Future


Village Homes, Davis, California


Village HomesNot

Village Homes


8: Affordable Housing


Affordability Initiatives

Inclusionary Zoning: all new developments must include 20% (eg) affordable and 15% low income units


Affordability Initiatives

Secondary Suites…But with a “no cars” covenant


Car-Free Laneway Housing


Rooftop Housing


Communal Renting allowedby more than five people


Communal ownership


A Community Land Trustbuys land for affordable housing

Hannah Wittman/Michelle Colussi


$$ for the Community Land Trust•Progressively increasing tax on real estate sales over $2 million

•15% sales tax on properties bought through offshore companies

•Annual levy on properties registered offshore for tax reasons

•Escalating tax on empty properties to stop developers from sitting on them


Micro-homes

502 Alexander StVancouver

280 sq ft

12 units, base cost $85,000 each

CMHC



8: Energy without Fossil Fuels


Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com

The Passive House


Construction costs: 4.3% more per square foot


Monthly net energy savings more than the increased mortgage

2014: 4 kW PV = $16,0004,400 kWh year


2034: 4 kW PV = $6,0004,400 kWh year


Will save $30,000 - $60,000 over the 30 year life of the panels

100 GW in 2012

Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000



134 GWin 2013

9000% increase

since 2000


Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW solar plant


London’s new solar bridge


Solar Hot Water


Hybrid solar PV and solar hot water


Air Source Solar Heat


Water-Source Solar Heat

Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

Neolithic Era

Ancient Egypt

Roman Empire

Islamic Golden Age

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

The Age of Oil……………………………………….

The last 10,000 years


The last 10,000 years

...................................................

What happens here,when we stop using oil?


A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years


A billion years

The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

And with every passing year, solar technology will improve

and get cheaper.


A Happy, Resilient Future

More walking, biking, bus, carsharing

Lower transport costs

More urban food gardens Cheaper and healthier eating

Innovative affordable housing Lower housing costs

Stronger neighbourhoods More friends, more real community

More urban greenery More inner space, and peace

Stronger community economy More financial security

Green, energy-efficient homes Lower energy costs

No more fossil fuels Clean air, clear sky, quiet city

More civic engagement Healthier political realm

Basic Income Less poverty, fear and homelessness

More arts, music and neighbourhood celebration

More friends, more happiness, more love


9: How Do We Make It Happen?

Community engagement


Engaging Young People

www.leadingchangenetwork.com


Electronic ballotsVoting aged reduced to 16

Transferable Voting for City Hall$100 tax credit for voting


Design the Future Community Meetings


A Green, Sustainable Future is not an ‘Option’

It is an Urgent Necessity



CITY of the

FUTURE

A Journey to the Year 2032

GUY DAUNCEY

Summer 2014

Special Price

$5


This is about us, our planet,our children and our future.


Josephine Wallwww.josephinewall.co.uk


www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey


Guy Dauncey

May 29th, 7pm, Florence Filburg Centre


Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

imagining a green sustainable comox valley, 2034

Environment

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co2 co2 co2 co2 co2

gross depletion

rise http

metres higher

planet dead albatross

planet yield costs