imbalances peak oil crisis

16
G lobalIm balances, Peak O il, and the N extEconom ic Crisis? D r. M inqiLi, A ssistantProfessor Departm entofEconom ics, U niversity ofU tah E-mail:minqi.li@ economics.utah.edu W ebpage:www.econ.utah.edu/~m li A pril2011, SaltLake City

Upload: slade-hooper

Post on 31-Dec-2015

16 views

Category:

Documents


2 download

DESCRIPTION

- PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Imbalances Peak Oil Crisis

Global Imbalances, Peak Oil, and the Next Economic Crisis?

Dr. Minqi Li, Assistant Professor

Department of Economics, University of Utah

E-mail: [email protected]

Webpage: www.econ.utah.edu/~mli

April 2011, Salt Lake City

Page 2: Imbalances Peak Oil Crisis

Neoliberalism and Global Imbalances • Neoliberalism: insufficient effective demand / frequent, destructive financial crises • Stabilizing the neoliberal global economy: borrower of last resort • 1995-2007: US (debt-financed household consumption) • 2010-?: US (led by federal government deficit?) / China (led by investment?) • Peak Oil – The Next Global Economic Crisis?

Page 3: Imbalances Peak Oil Crisis
Page 4: Imbalances Peak Oil Crisis
Page 5: Imbalances Peak Oil Crisis
Page 6: Imbalances Peak Oil Crisis
Page 7: Imbalances Peak Oil Crisis
Page 8: Imbalances Peak Oil Crisis
Page 9: Imbalances Peak Oil Crisis
Page 10: Imbalances Peak Oil Crisis
Page 11: Imbalances Peak Oil Crisis
Page 12: Imbalances Peak Oil Crisis
Page 13: Imbalances Peak Oil Crisis
Page 14: Imbalances Peak Oil Crisis

Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1980-2009

(Dependent variable: logarithmic value of GDP)

World OECD Asia & Pacific

INTERCEPT 0.031

(0.002)***

0.025

(0.002)***

0.071

(0.003)***

OIL PRICE

(unit: $10)

-0.007

(0.003)**

-0.014

(0.003)***

0.001

(0.004)

R-square 0.143 0.417 0.002

Standard errors are in parentheses.

**Statistically significant at 5 percent level.

***Statistically significant at 1 percent level.

Data sources: World Bank, http://databank.worldbank.org; BP, Statistical Review of World

Energy 2010.

Page 15: Imbalances Peak Oil Crisis

Oil Consumption, Oil Price, and GDP, 1980-2009

(Dependent variable: logarithmic value of Oil Consumption)

World OECD Asia & Pacific

INTERCEPT -0.013

(0.006)**

-0.011

(0.007)

0.004

(0.019)

OIL PRICE

(unit: $10)

-0.009

(0.003)***

-0.016

(0.006)***

-0.016

(0.006)***

GDP

(in logarithmic value)

0.722

(0.174)***

0.562

(0.263)***

0.612

(0.263)**

R-square 0.603 0.584 0.324

Standard errors are in parentheses.

**Statistically significant at 5 percent level.

***Statistically significant at 1 percent level.

Data sources: World Bank, http://databank.worldbank.org; BP, Statistical Review of World

Energy 2010.

Page 16: Imbalances Peak Oil Crisis

Alternative Scenarios of Oil Consumption and Economic Growth

(Economic growth rates consistent with stable real oil price are reported)

Oil Consumption

Growth Rate

World OECD Asia & Pacific

-2% -1.6%

-1% 0.4% 0.2%

0% 1.8% 2.0%

1% 3.2% 3.7%

2% 4.6% 2.6%

3% 4.2%

4% 5.9%

5% 7.5%