Planning for the Future:Planning for the Future:Immigration and Labour Market Immigration and Labour Market

TrendsTrends

ALLIES Mentoring ConferenceALLIES Mentoring ConferenceCalgary May 2011Calgary May 2011

Naomi AlboimNaomi Alboim

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Overview of presentation1. Introduction2. Canadian immigration and labour market context3. Immigration numbers and trends4. Pre-election consultations and proposals:

FQR FSW

5. Implications for Immigrant Employment Councils6. Recommendations7. Conclusion

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Introduction Immigration trends rapidly shiftingImmigration trends rapidly shifting

Labour markets shifting as wellLabour markets shifting as well

Significant policy and program Significant policy and program implicationsimplications

Significant implications for employers Significant implications for employers and service providersand service providers

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Canada’s labour market context Labour market forecasting is an art, not a Labour market forecasting is an art, not a

sciencescience Canada does not have a good track record Canada does not have a good track record

in predicting specific skill shortages or in predicting specific skill shortages or surpluses but:surpluses but:

Two Mega Trends:– Aging population resulting in lower

labour force participation rates– Knowledge economy requiring a more

educated work force

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Aging populationAging population Aging workforce (baby boomers retiring), low Aging workforce (baby boomers retiring), low

fertility rates (below replacement) will create fertility rates (below replacement) will create labour shortages labour shortages

Need better utilization of underemployed, Need better utilization of underemployed, unemployed, underrepresented groups: Eg.unemployed, underrepresented groups: Eg.– Aboriginal labour force participation rates for 15-24 year Aboriginal labour force participation rates for 15-24 year

olds is 13.6% lower than total Canadian ratesolds is 13.6% lower than total Canadian rates– Persons with disabilities aged 15-64 have labour force Persons with disabilities aged 15-64 have labour force

participation rate 22.4% lower than those without participation rate 22.4% lower than those without disabilitiesdisabilities

But even with them, demand will exceed supplyBut even with them, demand will exceed supply By 2015, 100% of net labour force growth will By 2015, 100% of net labour force growth will

depend on immigrationdepend on immigration

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Supply and demandSupply and demand

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Knowledge economyKnowledge economy Most new jobs (O, A, B) will require post-secondary educationMost new jobs (O, A, B) will require post-secondary education Estimates range from low of 65% (HRSDC, 2007) to 81% (Ontario Estimates range from low of 65% (HRSDC, 2007) to 81% (Ontario

Ministry of Education, 2005)Ministry of Education, 2005) Education/training beyond high school includesEducation/training beyond high school includes

– ApprenticeshipApprenticeship– CollegeCollege– UniversityUniversity– PolytechnicPolytechnic– Industry/professional qualification Industry/professional qualification

Essential skills for most new jobs will include high level Essential skills for most new jobs will include high level communication skills, IT skills, working in teams, critical thinking, communication skills, IT skills, working in teams, critical thinking, intercultural skills (beyond the commonly defined essential skills)intercultural skills (beyond the commonly defined essential skills)

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Labour force options and Labour force options and combinationscombinations

Increased involvement of AboriginalsIncreased involvement of Aboriginals Increased involvement of persons with disabilitiesIncreased involvement of persons with disabilities Increased involvement of womenIncreased involvement of women Increased involvement of older workers (ages 55 Increased involvement of older workers (ages 55

and older)and older) Increased involvement of youth (15 to 24 years Increased involvement of youth (15 to 24 years

of age)of age) Increased immigration and effective utilization of Increased immigration and effective utilization of

internationally trained skilled workersinternationally trained skilled workersDifferent strategies for eachDifferent strategies for each

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Rising and declining immigration numbers: Canada and Ontario

Despite increased overall permanent immigration to Despite increased overall permanent immigration to Canada between 2006-2010, these increases were not Canada between 2006-2010, these increases were not reflected in all classes or in all provincesreflected in all classes or in all provinces

2006 2010 2006 2010 Family class: 70,517 60,207Family class: 70,517 60,207 Business Class : 12,076 13,301Business Class : 12,076 13,301 FSW : 105,944 119,339FSW : 105,944 119,339 CEC : 0 3,916CEC : 0 3,916 PNP : 13,336 36,419PNP : 13,336 36,419 LCP : 6,895 13,906LCP : 6,895 13,906 Refugees: 32,499 24,693Refugees: 32,499 24,693 Total (plus “other”) 251,642 280,636Total (plus “other”) 251,642 280,636

Ontario: 125,892 118,116Ontario: 125,892 118,116

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Permanent residents awaiting a Permanent residents awaiting a decision December 31, 2010decision December 31, 2010

FSW apps rec’d on or after 02/27/08FSW apps rec’d on or after 02/27/08

173,050173,050 FSW apps rec’d before 02/27/08FSW apps rec’d before 02/27/08

334,881334,881 All other PR appsAll other PR apps

495,081495,081

Total applicants awaiting a decisionTotal applicants awaiting a decision

1,003,0121,003,012

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Rise in Temporary Workers

2006 20102006 2010

TFW entries 139,004 182,322TFW entries 139,004 182,322TFW present Dec 160,908 283,096TFW present Dec 160,908 283,096

Even during the recession, large numbers of TFW’s were Even during the recession, large numbers of TFW’s were being admitted, although there were some declines in 2009 being admitted, although there were some declines in 2009 in Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta, BC and NWT. All were up in Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta, BC and NWT. All were up again in 2010.again in 2010.

BC, Alberta, NFLD, Nova Scotia and the Territories received BC, Alberta, NFLD, Nova Scotia and the Territories received more temporary foreign workers than permanent residents more temporary foreign workers than permanent residents in 2009in 2009

Significant increase in low skilled temporary workers (NOC Significant increase in low skilled temporary workers (NOC C+D)C+D)

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2009 Permanent Residents,Temporary Workers, International Students

(entries)

Province 2009 PR 2009 TFW 2009 ISProvince 2009 PR 2009 TFW 2009 IS

Newfoundland 603 (.2) 1,395 (.8) * 530 (.6)*Newfoundland 603 (.2) 1,395 (.8) * 530 (.6)*PEI 1,723 (.7) 521 (.3) 322 (.4)PEI 1,723 (.7) 521 (.3) 322 (.4)Nova Scotia 2,424 (1.0) 2,795 (1.6) 2,606 (3.1)*Nova Scotia 2,424 (1.0) 2,795 (1.6) 2,606 (3.1)*New Brunswick 1,913 (.8) 1,705 (1.0) 1,422 (1.7)*New Brunswick 1,913 (.8) 1,705 (1.0) 1,422 (1.7)*Quebec 49,493 (19.6) 27,786 (15.6) 14,134 (16.7)Quebec 49,493 (19.6) 27,786 (15.6) 14,134 (16.7)Ontario 106,867 (42.4)* 61,056 (34.2) 30,503 (35.8)Ontario 106,867 (42.4)* 61,056 (34.2) 30,503 (35.8)Manitoba 13,520 (5.4) * 3,649 (2.0) 2,064 (2.4)Manitoba 13,520 (5.4) * 3,649 (2.0) 2,064 (2.4)Saskatchewan 6,890 (2.7) 3,937 (2.2) 1,461 (1.7)Saskatchewan 6,890 (2.7) 3,937 (2.2) 1,461 (1.7)Alberta 27,017 (10.7) 28,610 (16.0) * 5,532 (6.5)Alberta 27,017 (10.7) 28,610 (16.0) * 5,532 (6.5)British Columbia 41,438 (16.4) 44,372 (24.9) 26,541 (31.2)*British Columbia 41,438 (16.4) 44,372 (24.9) 26,541 (31.2)*Territories 291 (.1) 561 (.3) * 23 (.03)Territories 291 (.1) 561 (.3) * 23 (.03)

Total 252,179 (100.0) 178,478 (100.0) 85,140 (100.0)Total 252,179 (100.0) 178,478 (100.0) 85,140 (100.0)

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How are immigrants doing?How are immigrants doing? Recent immigrants hardest hit by the recession, Recent immigrants hardest hit by the recession,

particularly in regions hardest hit by the particularly in regions hardest hit by the recessionrecession

Still recoveringStill recovering

No special initiatives were put into place for No special initiatives were put into place for immigrants to reduce scarringimmigrants to reduce scarring

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However Certain Factors Make A Difference…

Human capital matters:Human capital matters:– Principal applicants in skilled worker class assessed on points system Principal applicants in skilled worker class assessed on points system

earn significantly more than all other classes earn significantly more than all other classes – Knowledge of official language and education most important factorsKnowledge of official language and education most important factors

Services matter:Services matter:– Early interventions, language, social networks, Canadian top-upsEarly interventions, language, social networks, Canadian top-ups– Internships (75-80% of Career bridge participants find full time Internships (75-80% of Career bridge participants find full time

employment in chosen careers)employment in chosen careers)– Mentoring(80% of mentoring partnership participants find employment Mentoring(80% of mentoring partnership participants find employment

within 3 months; 85% in their field)within 3 months; 85% in their field)– Bridge training (70% of graduates in Ontario working in their field and Bridge training (70% of graduates in Ontario working in their field and

licensure exam pass rates have gone from 30 to 80%)licensure exam pass rates have gone from 30 to 80%)

Social capital matters:Social capital matters:– Family class members do better in first year after arrival Family class members do better in first year after arrival

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Possible Interventions Focus on the immigrantFocus on the immigrant

– Levels/mix/source countriesLevels/mix/source countries– Selection criteria (language, age, education, credentials, Selection criteria (language, age, education, credentials,

occupation)occupation)

Focus on programs and servicesFocus on programs and services– Know who’s coming and what their needs areKnow who’s coming and what their needs are– Bridge gap faced by immigrant before and after arrivalBridge gap faced by immigrant before and after arrival– Information, qualification assessment, essential skills, Information, qualification assessment, essential skills,

language/communication and bridge training, language/communication and bridge training, mentorships, work experience programs, loansmentorships, work experience programs, loans

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.. .. Possible Interventions Focus on systems and supports for host Focus on systems and supports for host

society and institutionssociety and institutions– Regulatory bodies, employers, schools, universities, Regulatory bodies, employers, schools, universities,

community colleges, community agencies community colleges, community agencies – Bridge gap faced by the institutions: Bridge gap faced by the institutions:

awareness/recognition of skills, cross-cultural/anti-awareness/recognition of skills, cross-cultural/anti-racism training, supports, incentives, legislation, racism training, supports, incentives, legislation, funding formulasfunding formulas

– Multi-stakeholder collaborationMulti-stakeholder collaboration– Inter and intra-governmental collaborationInter and intra-governmental collaboration

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Federal government responses:Federal government responses:levels /mix and selection criteria levels /mix and selection criteria

Decrease in overall immigration numbers by 5% forecast for 2011 from Decrease in overall immigration numbers by 5% forecast for 2011 from 20102010

Decrease in Federal Skilled Workers (assessed on points system for human Decrease in Federal Skilled Workers (assessed on points system for human capital) by 20% forecast for 2011capital) by 20% forecast for 2011

Decrease in Family Class: parents and grandparents by about 31% forecast Decrease in Family Class: parents and grandparents by about 31% forecast for 2011for 2011

Based on evaluation of FSW program, consultations on changes to the Based on evaluation of FSW program, consultations on changes to the points systempoints system

Tied economic immigration more closely to short term labour market Tied economic immigration more closely to short term labour market needs:needs:– Restriction to 29 occupations or those with job offers and proof of language Restriction to 29 occupations or those with job offers and proof of language

testing for new federal skilled worker applicantstesting for new federal skilled worker applicants– Increased responsiveness to employers for temporary foreign workersIncreased responsiveness to employers for temporary foreign workers

Unilaterally imposed cap on PNP at 2010-11 levelUnilaterally imposed cap on PNP at 2010-11 level

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Federal government responses:programs, services, systems

Decreased funding for settlement services, particularly in Decreased funding for settlement services, particularly in Ontario and TorontoOntario and Toronto

Focus on FQR with stakeholdersFocus on FQR with stakeholders

Focus on overseas interventionsFocus on overseas interventions

Budget included loan program to meet FQR requirementsBudget included loan program to meet FQR requirements

Failed to re-negotiate COIAFailed to re-negotiate COIA

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Pre- election consultationsPre- election consultations1. Pan- Canadian FQR Framework: consultations 1. Pan- Canadian FQR Framework: consultations

with priority regulated occupations identified with priority regulated occupations identified need for pan-Canadian initiatives in following need for pan-Canadian initiatives in following areas:areas:– Pre-arrival information, assessment, upgrading, Pre-arrival information, assessment, upgrading,

mentoringmentoring– Assessment processesAssessment processes– Bridge training opportunitiesBridge training opportunities– Communications and soft skillsCommunications and soft skills– Workplace opportunitiesWorkplace opportunities– Individual and employer supportsIndividual and employer supports– Alternate pathwaysAlternate pathways

2020

Pre-election consultationsPre-election consultations2. Selection criteria for FSW Principal applicants:2. Selection criteria for FSW Principal applicants:

Consultations were held on proposed changes to point Consultations were held on proposed changes to point system based on findings of the FSW evaluationsystem based on findings of the FSW evaluation

Point system working well but needs some refinementPoint system working well but needs some refinement

Human capital model works better than pre-IRPA modelHuman capital model works better than pre-IRPA model

FSWs do best of all classes in long term (including PNPs)FSWs do best of all classes in long term (including PNPs)

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LanguageLanguage Increase maximum points for first official language from 16 Increase maximum points for first official language from 16

to 20 pointsto 20 points Require standardized language test for all PA’sRequire standardized language test for all PA’s Introduce minimum language requirements depending on Introduce minimum language requirements depending on

occupation:occupation:– CLB 8 for NOC O, A, and most BCLB 8 for NOC O, A, and most B– CLB 6 for NOC B skilled tradesCLB 6 for NOC B skilled trades

Issues raised in consultation:Issues raised in consultation: How should the second official language be treated for points? Adaptability?How should the second official language be treated for points? Adaptability? Do you get full points for minimum level required? Or is it a pre-requisite?Do you get full points for minimum level required? Or is it a pre-requisite? Should all Skilled trades require CLB 6? Perhaps some at 7?Should all Skilled trades require CLB 6? Perhaps some at 7? Impact on levels and source countries?Impact on levels and source countries?

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AgeAge Increase weight of age on grid from 10 to 12 pointsIncrease weight of age on grid from 10 to 12 points Award maximum points until age 35, with a sequential Award maximum points until age 35, with a sequential

leveling off to age 49. No age points after 50leveling off to age 49. No age points after 50

Issues raised in consultation:Issues raised in consultation:– Giving full points for 18-35 may not make sense.Giving full points for 18-35 may not make sense.– Young single male FSW’s are the most mobile and may not be Young single male FSW’s are the most mobile and may not be

able to access education easily in Canadaable to access education easily in Canada– Age 35 may be too young for maximum pointsAge 35 may be too young for maximum points– Age 36-40 tend to be married with young children (will stay)Age 36-40 tend to be married with young children (will stay)– Chain migration impacts should be studiedChain migration impacts should be studied

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EducationEducation Relax years of education required to earn education points Relax years of education required to earn education points

to allow for skilled tradespersons, technicians and to allow for skilled tradespersons, technicians and apprentices to qualifyapprentices to qualify

Issues raised in consultations:Issues raised in consultations:– Education is significant predictor of success so do not reduce Education is significant predictor of success so do not reduce

requirements across the board. requirements across the board. – Consider eliminating need for credential Consider eliminating need for credential andand years of study to years of study to

be assessedbe assessed– Have different assessment for trades credentialsHave different assessment for trades credentials– Require credentials to be assessed by recognized Canadian Require credentials to be assessed by recognized Canadian

ACAS and assign points based on assessmentACAS and assign points based on assessment

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Work experienceWork experience Decrease points allotted to work experience from Decrease points allotted to work experience from

21 to 1521 to 15 Increase the range within which points are Increase the range within which points are

allotted (not four years=max pts)allotted (not four years=max pts)– 1-2 10 pts1-2 10 pts– 3-5 13 pts3-5 13 pts– 6+ 15 pts6+ 15 pts

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Arranged EmploymentArranged Employment Strengthen regulatory provisions and definitions Strengthen regulatory provisions and definitions

to support more rigorous up-front assessment of to support more rigorous up-front assessment of the employer and job offer to prevent non-the employer and job offer to prevent non-genuine job offersgenuine job offers

Issues raised in consultations:Issues raised in consultations:– FSW evaluation showed this was best predictor of FSW evaluation showed this was best predictor of

success, so should be encouraged and facilitatedsuccess, so should be encouraged and facilitated– Employers seeking temporary workers to fill permanent Employers seeking temporary workers to fill permanent

vacancies should be directed to use AEOsvacancies should be directed to use AEOs– This would be facilitated by developing searchable This would be facilitated by developing searchable

inventoryinventory

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Outstanding issuesOutstanding issues How can the adaptability points be better used?How can the adaptability points be better used?

If FSW program continues to decline in numbers If FSW program continues to decline in numbers

because of rise in PNP and TFWs, these changes because of rise in PNP and TFWs, these changes will be mootwill be moot

If the FSW evaluation demonstrated that If the FSW evaluation demonstrated that occupation based selection criteria pre-IRPA was occupation based selection criteria pre-IRPA was not as effective, why have the Ministerial not as effective, why have the Ministerial instructions restrict access to the FSW to only 29 instructions restrict access to the FSW to only 29 occupations?occupations?

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Implications for IECsImplications for IECs The role of IEC’s more important than ever to The role of IEC’s more important than ever to

maximize contributions of skilled workersmaximize contributions of skilled workers Skilled immigrants will continue to enter Canada Skilled immigrants will continue to enter Canada

in many ways, not necessarily as PAs of FSW’sin many ways, not necessarily as PAs of FSW’s Even if changes made to FSW criteria, they and Even if changes made to FSW criteria, they and

others will still need supports pre and post arrivalothers will still need supports pre and post arrival Lots of interest and possibilities to work with Lots of interest and possibilities to work with

other stakeholders like regulatory bodies and other stakeholders like regulatory bodies and educational institutionseducational institutions

You can bring employers to the table to involve You can bring employers to the table to involve them in new initiativesthem in new initiatives

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RecommendationsRecommendations Explore opportunities for employer involvement with Explore opportunities for employer involvement with

immigrants still overseas (AEO vs TFW) immigrants still overseas (AEO vs TFW) Add regulated occupations as focusAdd regulated occupations as focus Develop employer role for sustainable bridging programs: Develop employer role for sustainable bridging programs:

co-op positions, advisory boards, scholarships, PT co-op positions, advisory boards, scholarships, PT instruction, workplace events, job fairsinstruction, workplace events, job fairs

Explore “return of service” agreementsExplore “return of service” agreements Explore possibility of practice firmsExplore possibility of practice firms Explore employer/preceptor incentives and supports to Explore employer/preceptor incentives and supports to

provide workplace opportunities for those not-yet-licensed provide workplace opportunities for those not-yet-licensed and first Canadian work experiencesand first Canadian work experiences

Explore opportunities for on-site trainingExplore opportunities for on-site training Explore ways to expand internships to regulated Explore ways to expand internships to regulated

occupations occupations

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Recommendations for MentoringRecommendations for Mentoring Expand e-mentoring initiatives for access pre and Expand e-mentoring initiatives for access pre and

post arrival (CIIP)post arrival (CIIP) Explore mentoring for regulated occupations with Explore mentoring for regulated occupations with

licensing bodies and professional associationslicensing bodies and professional associations Develop a mentoring program specifically for Develop a mentoring program specifically for

entrepreneursentrepreneurs Develop a mentoring program for big companies Develop a mentoring program for big companies

to mentor SME’s on immigrant recruitment, to mentor SME’s on immigrant recruitment, hiring, retention and promotionhiring, retention and promotion

Work with large employers (eg, hospitals) to Work with large employers (eg, hospitals) to develop mentoring programs for ALL occupationsdevelop mentoring programs for ALL occupations

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ConclusionsConclusions Wonderful initiatives taking place across the countryWonderful initiatives taking place across the country How transform individual projects to sustainable imbedded How transform individual projects to sustainable imbedded

systems?systems? Need for rigorous evaluation, data, storiesNeed for rigorous evaluation, data, stories Need for collective policy and program activismNeed for collective policy and program activism Need for continued public advocacy on the benefits of immigrationNeed for continued public advocacy on the benefits of immigration Immigration patterns and policies are constantly evolvingImmigration patterns and policies are constantly evolving Labour markets are constantly changing and differ across the Labour markets are constantly changing and differ across the

countrycountry Extremely difficult to get both in synch but vigilance necessary to Extremely difficult to get both in synch but vigilance necessary to

see and act on early warnings recognizing broader context and see and act on early warnings recognizing broader context and implicationsimplications

Strategies to address the diversity of our employee pool will Strategies to address the diversity of our employee pool will ensure we have the workforce we need ensure we have the workforce we need andand the citizens our the citizens our communities need to thrive communities need to thrive