IMMIGRATION

INTO

THE UNITED STATES.

EDWARD JARVIS, M. D.

Reprinted from The Atlantic Monthly for April, 1872.

BOSTONJAMES R. OSGOOD AND COiVj/ANY,

Late Ticknor & Fields, and Fields, Osgood, & Co.

18 72 .

IMMIGRATION

INTO

THE UNITED STATES.

EDWARD JARVIS, M. D.

Reprinted from The Atlantic Monthly for April, 1872.

BOSTON;

JAMES R. OSGOOD AND COMPANY,Late Ticknor & Fields, and Fields, Osgood, & Co.

1872.

Entered according to Act of Congress, in the year 1872,JAMES R. OSGOOD AND COMPANY,

in the Office of the Librarian of Congress, at Washington.

University Press : Welch, Bigelow, & Co.,Cambridge.

IMMIGRATION.

THERE is a belief held by a few inboth Europe and America, that

the climate of the United States isunfavorable to the Caucasian constitu-tion. This is put forth distinctly byMr. Clibborne, in a paper which heread before the British Association forthe Advancement of Science at Chel-tenham, in 1856, entitled “ The Tenden-cy of the European Races to becomeextinct in the United States.” Thiswas published in the volume of Trans-actions of the society for that year.

The sum of Mr. Clibborne’s idea isembraced in the following sentence :“ From the general unfitness of theclimate to the European constitution,coupled with the occasional pestilen-tial visitations which occur in thehealthier localities, on the whole, onan average of three or four generations,extinction of the European races inNorth America would be almost cer-tain, if the communication with Europew’ere entirely cut off.” Knox repeatsthis opinion in his English lectures onthe races of men.*

The existence and rapid increaseof the large population in the UnitedStates are held not to conflict with thistheory, for these facts are explainedby the supposition that our people arecomposed mostly of strangers fromabroad and their children, whose fami-lies are extraordinarily fertile in thefirst generation in America, althoughthey soon become sterile, and in courseof a century or less,yield their places tonew arrivals, as their predecessors haddone for ages before them, and as theirsuccessors will do forever after them.

Mr. Louis Schade, in his work pub-lished at Washington, in 1856, affirmsthis principle of American deteriora-tion of human life, and says that thepower of natural increase of those whowere hereeighty-twoyears ago is reducedto the annual rate of 1.38 per cent,

* Page 57.

while all the rest of the growth of pop-ulation within that period is due tonew immigrants and their very fruitfulfamilies.

Mr. Frederic Kapp, in an addressread before the American Social ScienceAssociation and printed in their Jour-nal for 1870, warmly supports this doc-trine, and says that “it is the greatmerit of Mr. Schade to have first ap-plied the true principle of computingthe gain of population.” *

M. A. Carlier, a French traveller inthis country, and writer, in his Me-moire stir PAcclimatement des Racesen Amerique, read before the Societed’Anthropologie, of Paris, and printedin their Transaction's, endeavors to sus-tain the same doctrine of the decadencaof population in America, and quotesMr. Schade in proof of his opinion.

In harmony with these views, aresome seemingly wild opinions as tothe number of people of foreign birthliving now in the United States. TheBishop of Cassel said in the House ofLords, of Great Britain, “ There areseven million natives of Ireland in theUnited States.” A speaker in a pub-lic meeting of Germans in New Yorksaid, “We have four millions of ourcountrymen here.” Disraeli, in “ Lo-thair,” makes Monsignore Berwick, whois represented as a man of rare intelli-gence, say, “We have twelve millionCatholics in the United States.”

To meet these opinions and to de-termine, as far as the attainable rec-ords will permit, exactly or approxi-mately, the numbers of these foreign-ers and their descendants living in theUnited States, in the several decen-nial years of this century, 1800 to 1870,is the purpose of this article.

Immigration into the United States.No organized system of ascertaining

and recording the number and charac-* Page 16.

Immigration.2

ter of the persons who came here fromabroad existed previous to October i,

1819. From that time the law ofCongress required that all who cometo the sea and lake ports should beregistered at the custom-houses. Theirnames, ages, sex, nativity, occupation,and destination are ascertained and re-ported to the national government.

Since the law went into operation,in 1819, the State Department at first,and the Treasury Department latterly,have published annual reports of thenumber and character of the immi-grants. So far as these documents go,they may be received with confidence.But there were manifest omissions atsome ports in the earlier years, andthey could give no account of foreign-ers who entered this country throughother channels than the sea and lakeports.

No official account has been givenof the arrivals, before October 1, 1819.Some statistical writers, however, madecareful inquiries and estimated the ex-tent of .immigration. Mr. Blodgettthought the arrivals did not exceedfour thousand 4 year, from 1789to 1794.Dr. Seybert supposed there were sixthousand a year, from 1790 to 1810.*Professor Tucker fixed the number atfifty thousand in the period 1790 to1800, seventy thousand from 1800 to1810, one hundred and fourteen thou-sand from 1810 to 1820, and two hun-dred thousand from 1820 to 1830.! TheProfessor’s estimates are now admittedas correct by the best authorities.

European Immigration through theBritish Provinces.

There is no difficulty in determiningthe number who landed at our sea-portsand the lake-ports since October 1, 1819.But the doubtful problem is the num-ber who came across the border, fromand through Canada and New Bruns-wick, and escaped the notice of ournational officers.

The censuses of Canada for 1842,1851, and 1861, and those of Nova

* Statistical Annals, p. 29.t Progress of Population, Chap. X.

Scotia and New Brunswick for 1851and 1861,show the numbers of foreign-ers that were then living in the BritishNorth American Provinces. The Brit-ish emigration reports show the num-bers that left the United Kingdom forthese colonies in the intervals of thoseenumerations. Calculating the mortal-ity of these emigrants at the usual an-nual rate, we have the numbers of theirprobable survivors in the several yearsof the census. Comparing these sur-viving immigrants with the Europeansliving in the Provinces, in 1842, 1851,and 1861, the last were found insuffi-cient to account for the first.

The survivors of those who left theUnited Kingdom for the British NorthAmerican colonies exceeded the num-bers of Europeans living there

Previous to 1842by 110,518Interval between 1842 and 1851 by . . 75,245Interval between 1851 and 1861 by • . 9,°53

194,816

All others had either died or were ab-sorbed into the provincial populations.

No account is given of these 194,816.Some of them may have returned toEurope. Probably most of them cameacross our border, and thus swelled ourforeign population.

Immigration ofBritish Provincials.The number of natives of British

Provinces, recorded in our immigrationreports, do not account for all that ap-pear in our censuses of 1850 and iB6O.The custom-houses do not reach thosewho come directly by land. In thecensus of 1850 there are 100,692 Brit-ish Provincials more than could be ac-counted for by the previous immigrantrecords. Besides the survivors of thesein iB6O, there were found by the enu-merators of that year 72,286 more thanhad been officially reported. The lastcame between 1850 and iB6O. Theother 100,692 came previous to 1850,and probably arrived in periods similarto those in which other Provincialscame by sea and by lake, and wereregistered in the custom-houses.

Those found living in 1850 and iB6O

Immigration.are the survivors of larger numbers,who had arrived in previous years.The actual arrivals include not onlythose living in 1850 and iB6O, but alsothose who died after their passing theborder, and before these dates.

Then the 100,692 British Provincialsliving in the United States in 1850were the survivors of

5,325 who arrived between 1820and 183026,623 11 “ l< 1830 “ 184083,576 “ “ “ 1840 “ 1850

A total of 117,524 “ “ “ 1820 “ 1850And the 72,286 who were living here

in IS6O, in excess of those who sur-vived from 1850,represent 82,487 Pro-vincial immigrants by land across theborder between 1850 and iB6O.

Thus those natives of Europe andthe British Provinces who came fromand through Canada and New Bruns-wick unnoticed by the American offi-cers and not included in the immigra-tion reports were :

These should be added, in their re-spective periods, to the numbers of im-migrants given in government reports.

For the rest, in this paper, the na-tional records are assumed, exceptthat, when not deducted and whenstated, those passengers who were

natives of the United States, and alsothose who expressed an intention toreside elsewhere, are omitted, and16,327 are added to the arrivals of1820 to 1830, to compensate for theapparent deficiencies in some of thecustom-house returns. These, withthe 31,987 presumed to have comeacross the border, added to the sea-portand lake-port arrivals, make 200,000,the estimate of Professor Tucker.

By these means and from thesesources, the following probable andcertain numbers of foreign immigrants,from 1790 to iB6O, are found :

Immigrants.Period.Dec. 31, 1790 to Dec. 31, 1800, . . . 50,000Jan. 1, 1801 “ “ “ 1810, .

. 70,000“ “ 1811 “ “ “ 1820, . . , 114,000“ “ 1821 “ “ “ 1830, . • 200,000“ “ 1831 “ “ “ 1840, . . . 682,112“ “ 1841 to May 31, 1850, • • 1,711,161

June 1, 1850 “ “ “ IS6O, . . 2,766,495“ “ iBso “ “ “ 1870, . . 2,424,390

8,018,

Number of Foreigners living in eachdecennial Year.

It was desirable to determine thenumber of foreigners who were living inthe United States, at each of the censusor decennial years. In order to reachthis, the numbers of the survivors ofthose who arrived in each decade arecalculated at the annual rate of 2.4 percent mortality and .976 per cent surviv-ing, for the periods 1790 to 1850,and2.625 per cent mortality for the period1850 to iB6O, and 2.2 per cent mortal-ity for the last decade, iB6O to 1870,with the following results :

Immigrants arriving in Periods and surviving in Years.

In Periods. Provincials. Europeans. Totals.

1815 to 1820 12,157 12,1371820 to 1830 5,325 26.524 .31,8491830 to 1840 26,623 56,364 82,9871840 to 1850 83.576 go.718 176,2041850 to 1860 82,787 9,053 91,8401815 to i860 200,31 I 194,8l6 395-127

Arrive. Surviving in Years.

Period. Number. 1800. 1810. 1820. 1830. 1840. 1850. i860. 1870.1790- 1 Soo1800 - x8io1810- 18201820 - 18301830-18401840 - 18501850- 1S60i860 — 1870

50,00070,000

1 14,000200,000682,112

1,711.1612,766,4952,424,390

44,282 .34,7326i,993

27,24148,623100,961

21,36438,13779,187177,Mi

16.75529,91262, ICQ

6ll,486

1.3,1.3523,79649,409

110,518486,450

1,552,7°9

10,272!8,23737,86884,704

372,8291,190,0362,421,944

8,17914,60030.31S67,810

298,499952.685

1,938,7422,253,548

1790 - 1870Census,

8,018,158 44,282 96,72s 176,825 3 iS,;83° 859,202 2,236,2172,240.535

4,135,8904,'3N»7S

5,564,3785,566,546

Error, — 4,218 — 285 — 2,168

Immigration.4The results of the logarithmic calcu-

lations show the approximate numbersof foreigners who were living in theUnited States in the several decennialyears since 1790. They agree verynearly with the census returns of for-eigners in the years 1850, iB6O, and1870, when they were separately re-

ported. They fall short, less than onein 500 in 1850, less than one in 14,000in iB6O, and less than one in 2,500 in1870. The actual rates of mortalitywere a very slight fraction less thanthe rates herein assumed. These cor-respond very nearly with the rates de-termined and reported in the mortalityvolume of the eighth census, pageslix and 277.

The numbers of foreigners stated inthe censuses of 1850, iB6O, and 1870are fixed points, beyond which we can-not pass. If we assume that the im-migration was greater, in any of theperiods, than is here given, it will be ne-cessary to increase the rate of mortal-ity in order to reduce their numbers tothose then determined by enumeration.

Rate of Mortality among Immigrants.The rates of death, 2.4 per cent pre-

vious to 1850, and 2.625 per cent 1850to iB6O, and 2.2 per cent iB6O to 1870,are very large. It must be consid-ered that the immigrants include buta small proportion of those in the per-ilous periods of life, the very youngand the aged, but they are mostly inthe healthy ages, when the rate of mor-tality is very low. Among all the im-migrants, from 1819 to iB6O, there wereonly 7.9 per cent under five, and 10.2per cent over forty years old. In afixed population, as in England, therewere 13.3 per cent under five and 24.6per cent over forty.

The rate of mortality for thirty yearsin England, for all classes and ages,was 2.333 for males and 2.151 forfemales. But reducing the propor-tions of infants, children, and old peo-ple to those of the immigrants, andincreasing the proportions of thosewho are between ten and forty tothose of the immigrants, and allowing

these, in their respective ages, thesame rates of mortality that they nowhave in England, the general ratewould be only 1.329 for males, and1.338 for females. The rates thus

assumed for the foreigners here (24,2.625, and 2.2) are very high, almostdouble that of England, for personsin the same ages.

In these calculations, it is assumedthat the immigrants of the first fortyyears were distributed in equal num-bers over the years of the respectivedecades of their arrival, and that thosewho arrived in each year had a chanceor hope of living through the remain-ing years of that, their first decade.Thus those who came in 1791 had achance of living nine and a half yearsin that decade, to 1800 ; and the arri-vals of 1795 a chance of four and ahalf years’ life, and the average of thewhole, in that decade, was five years.But in the subsequent decades, withthe aid of the custom-house records,this average was determined precisely,by multiplying the arrivals of eachyear by the remaining years of thedecade, and dividing the sum of theproducts by the whole number ofarrivals. This gave five years for the ar-rivals, 1820-1830 and 1850-1860, fourand a half years for those who came1830-1840, and four years for those of1840 - 1850,and four and one third yearsfor the arrivals of the last decade.

The decades-are assumed to end onthe 31st of December, in 1800, 1810,1820, 1830, and 1840. But afterward,in order to correspond with the cen-sus, they are assumed to end on the31st of May. The period 1840 to 1850is therefore only nine years and fivemonths, all the others are ten years,and all the immigrants that enter onany decade, after that in which theyarrived, are assumed to have a chanceof living to its end.

Ar atural Increase of the Americanand Foreign Element of Populationsince 1790.On this question there is probably a

wider difference than in regard to the

Immigration. 5numbers of the arrivals from abroad.And public opinion is singularly un-settled as to the extent of the foreignelement, the numbers of the nativesof other countries who have comehere since 1790, and of their childrenand grandchildren born in the UnitedStates.

Mr. Schelde's Theory.Mr. Schade supposed that the natu-

ral increase or excess of births overdeaths in the American populationwas only 1.38 per cent a year ; and allthe surplus growth of the white popu-lation was due to the immigrants whocame since 1790. Mr. Kapp and M.Carlier indorse Mr. Schade in thisopinion.

This theory is founded on TableXVIII. in the Report of the seventhcensus,“ Statistics of the United States,1850,” page xli. The table is enti-tled “ Births, Marriages, and Deaths,Dwellings and Families.” This tableis repeated in the compendium of theseventh census, page in. Comparingthe numbers of births and deaths, Mr.Schade found the excess of the birthsover the deaths to be equal to 1.38per cent of the total white and freecolored population in 1850, and thenceinferred that this was their annualrate of increase.

If Mr. Schade had examined thisvolume a little further, he would haveseen that the column headed “births”did not give these facts, but merelythe number of children under one yearold living on the first day of June.Moreover, he would have seen a starat the head of the column referring toa note under the table, which says,“The figures include only those whowere surviving at the end of the year,and therefore are but approximate.”If he had looked further through thisvolume, he would have seen that Mr.De Bow, fearing the world would putconfidence in this statement of thetable which is repeated in regard toeach State, also repeats this caveat onevery page where this table or any partof it appears, forty-four times in all,

and as often tells the reader that hemust not believe his table, column,heading, or figures. And as if thiswere not sufficient, and there were stilldanger of misleading the people, he, onpage xxxix, paragraph second, says,“The table of births, as is stated inthe notes to each State, includes onlythose who were born in the year andwere surviving at the end of it; in otherwords, it comprises the figures of thecolumn of population under one yearof age.”

If Mr. Schade had looked at the lawregulating the census of 1850, pagexix, or the schedules, page xi, or theexplanation of the schedules, page xxii,or the instructions to the marshals inthe same volume, he would have seenthat the facts of birth were not re-quired by Congress, nor sought by thecensus department, nor asked by themarshals. Hence there is no groundfor the statement or inference asto the number of births in the year1849- 50.

Numbers ofBirths and Children underone Year not identical.

Even supposing that this matterhad been required by the law and re-ported by the marshals, the identity ofthe number of children under one andof the births would have thrown dis-trust over the statement. No allow-ance is made for the deaths in thisthe most dangerous period of life. Allof them had passed through theirmost perilous months, except thoseborn in May, 1850, and these hadpassed through the most perilousweeks and days of life.

The records of the experience ofseveral nations show the number ofchildren that were born in each monthand year, and the number that died ineach month of their first year. Fromthese it is easy to determine the num-ber and proportion of those born inany definite year who will die beforethe year ends, and the number andproportion that will then be alive.The clearest of these are the Dutchtables, in the S/atistisch Jaarboek, X.

6 Immigration.

and XL, page 82, for the ten years 1850-1559, showing all the births 1,075,979,and the deaths in each month afterbirth. Another authority equally valu-able is the monthly statement, in thelarge volume “ English Life Table,”No. 3, page 91.

According to the experience of theNetherlands, if 100,000 are born in anyyear, 13,139 of these will die before theIst of the next January, and 86,871will be alive on that day. The Eng-lish statement is more favorable, andshows that of the 100,000 born in theyear, only 9,910 will die before its end,and 90,090 will live to enter the nextyear.

The Dutch is the actual experienceof a progressive population, where thebirths exceed the deaths. The Eng-lish calculation excludes this excess,and is carefully reduced to the caseof a strictly stationary population, in•which the births and deaths are equal.

The American population is evenmore progressive than the Dutch ; and,including the South, it has probably ahigher rate of infant mortality. It willnot then go beyond the truth to as-sume the experience of the Nether-lands as the rate in this country, andthat 100,000 children born here, with-in a year, were represented by only86,871 survivors at its end, and, con-versely, 100,000 children under oneyear old, living on any day, representand are the survivors of 115,113 birthswithin the year next preceding.

Applying these proportions to thenumbers of children under one year ofage, in the United States, quoted byMr. Schade, from the census of 1850,we find that the

537.66 i whites were the survivors of 618,917 births,11,176 free colored “ 12,862 “

80,607 slaves “ 9 2>79 1 “

629,444 whiteand colored “ 724i57° “

within the year. At least it was neces-sary, according to the law of mortality,that so many should have been bornin the year next preceding June 1, 1850,to leave this reported number alive atthat date.

Incomplete E7inmeration ofChildren.There is another element of error in

this matter, which is equally if notmore important. In the preparation ofthe mortality report of the eighth cen-sus, an attempt was made to obtainsome light on the rate of mortality inthis country, by comparing the numbersliving at each age in 1850 with thenumbers of the same persons who, tenyears older, were living in iB6O ; as, forexample, those under five in 1850 withthose between ten and fifteen in iB6O,those between ten and twenty at thefirst date with those between twentyand thirty at the second, and so onthrough all ages.*

The first step was to ascertain all theimmigrants who had arrived in this in-terval, 1850 to iB6O, and their numbersat each age ; then, by the Life Table, tocalculate the number of survivors ofthe arrivals of each year in their respec-tive ages in iB6O, and deduct thesefrom the numbers of the whites of thesame ages, as they appeared in theeighth census. The remainders werethe survivors, in the several ages, ofthose who, ten years younger, wereliving here, in 1850, and the differenceshowed the probable loss by death inthis period.

If the enumerations had been com-plete at both censuses, 1850 and iB6O,and none had gone out except by death,and none had come in except by birth,the differences would show the exactmortality, and the rate at each agewould be easily determined for thatdecade of years. But at the early agesof all classes there was no apparentloss ; on the contrary, there were somegains. The 2,896,458 whites living,under five old, in 1850,instead oflosing any of their numbers by death,in course of the next ten years, accord-ing to the natural and necessary law ofmortality, are represented by the eighthcensus as being 2,939,510 at the ages tento fifteen, in iB6O, and thus as havinggained 43,052. There were similar dis-crepancies in the statements of thecolored population of these ages. In

* See Eighth Census Mortality volume, p. 285.

Immigration. 7the next period, passing from the agesbetween five and ten, in 1850, to thosebetween fifteen and twenty, in iB6O,there were also apparent errors, andthe case was the same with the agesnext beyond. But in the after ages, therepresentations of the numbers of theliving were apparently more correct.

In seeking an explanation of theseinconsistencies, it is necessary to as-sume, either that the numbers in theearlier ages, in 1850, were too small, orthat those in the later ages, in iB6O,were too large.

As the census was taken by name,and each person was described and re-corded, it is hardly supposable that anynames could have got into the record,unless they were those ofpersons reallyexisting. But it is not difficult to sup-pose that some, especially infants andchildren, may have been unknown to,or forgotten by, the informants, or over-looked by the enumerators.

As the census of 1850 failed to givetrustworthy information as to the num-bers ofchildren at that time, an attemptwas made to determine, from the ac-cepted statements of the eighth census,the number of children under five yearsold in 1850, in accordance with theknown number between ten and fifteenyears old in iB6O.

For this purpose the censuses ofother nations, which are taken decen-nially and represent their populations inquinquennial or decennial periods, wereexamined, and similar comparisonsmade of the numbers at the successiveenumerations. Most of these are af-fected by emigration, and thereforethey do not give sufficiently adequatedata for a comparison of their popula-tions at different periods.

The life tables of different countrieswere also examined for this end.These tables are exact representa-tions of the progress of populationthrough several periods of life. Ofthese, the English Life Table mostnearly represents our people and theirmovements of life. According to this,1,000,000 males, at the ages of 10 to15, are the survivors of 1,204,197, at

the ages of o to 5 ; 1,000,000 females, atthe ages of 10 to 15, are the survivorsof 1,193,398, at the ages of o to 5 ;

1,000,000 of both sexes, at the ages of10 to 15, are the survivors of 1,198,769,at the ages of o to 5.

In Mr. Meech’s American Life Ta-ble* for males only, 1,000,000 at 10 to15 are the survivors of 1,201,728 un-der 5.

Taking the English rate, whichnearly coincides with our own, the2,939,51° whites, aged 10 to 15, livingin the United States in iB6O, werethe survivors and representatives of3,523,793 children under 5, living in1850. The 601,647 colored children

aged 10 to 15, living in iB6O, werethe survivors and representatives of721,235, under 5, living in 1850.

By the same Life Table it appearsthat 1,000,000 children, between theages of 10 and 15, are the survivors ofan annual average of 287,877 births,ten to fifteen years previous ; then the2 ,939’5 1Q whites, aged 10 to 15, whowere living June 1, iB6O, represent anaverage of 846,217, and the 601,647colored children of the same age liv-ing June I, iB6O, represent an averageof 173,200, and the 3,541,157 of bothcolors, aged 10 to 15 in iB6O, represent1,019,417 annual births through the;five years next preceding June 1, 1850.

Since, in accordance with the law ofpopulation and the law of mortality,,there could not be any given number-of boys and girls of the ages 10 to 15,,unless a proportionately larger num-ber had lived ten years, previously atthe ages o to 5, and unless these hadbeen preceded by a still larger anddue number of births ; 5,097,085 chil-dren— an average of 1,019,417 a year

must have been born within theperiod, June 1, 1845, to May 3j>, 1850,and 4,245,028 of these must have beenalive and under five years,old; on the-first day of June, 1850, im order to.meet the usual chances of death andleave the 3.54b 1 57 survivors at the ages,10 to 15 on the Ist of June, iB6O.

* Thirteenth Report of Life-Insurance Comrftis--sioners of Massachusetts, 1867, page cvi.

8 Immigration.Number of Children omitted in the

Census.Comparing, then, the calculated with

the reported numbers of children un-der 5, in 1850, we have,

All these numbers in the last line,627,335 white, 119,588 colored, in all746,923 children under five years old,must have been overlooked and omit-ted in the census of 1850.

Children tinder one Year.By the same law, the number of

infants under one must have been922,297, June 1, 1850, instead of629,446 as stated in the census, show-ing a probable omission of 292,851.

Births.The births, in the year June x, 1849

to May 31, 1850, probably were1,019,417, instead of 629,446,* as sup-

posed by Mr. Schade, showing a differ-ence of 389,971, or an excess of 61 percent of his theory.

Deaths in 1850.The deaths in 1849-50 were imper-

fectly returned. Some whole countiesreported none ; others made their re-ports so incompletely as to offer noindication of the numbers who diedeither in any State or in the wholecountry. Still less do these returnsoffer any sound basis for the deter-mination of the rate of mortality inthat year.

Having then no reports of births, butonly a conjecture, widely removedfrom the fact, of their numbers, andno full return of deaths, the estimateor calculation of the annual natural in-crease, based upon these two classesof events, falls to the ground.

* 'Mr. Schade quotes only the whites and freecolored. In this paper the whole are taken toshow more completely the deficiencies of the seventhcensus. These are in the same proportion as Mr.Schade’s.statement.

Application of Mr. Schade's Theory.After having formed this baseless

theory of 1.38 per cent natural increaseof population, Mr. Schade proceeds toapply it in a manner equally remarka-ble and equally groundless.

The statements in Mr. De Bow’svolume (of the numbers of deaths andof children under one year wronglyassumed to represent the births) weremade with reference to the whole popu-lation, both native and foreign. Nodistinctions were made as to origin ;

these events are given in their totality,of all the people of each State and ofthe nation. The only distinction re-lates to color and to civil freedom orbondage. If the births were few andthe deaths many, these statements ap-ply to the foreign as well as to the na-tive families.

But Mr. Schade, finding the inferen-tial rate of 1.38 per cent growth insuffi-cient to account for all the actual in-crease, applied the rule to the Ameri-can population exclusively, those whowere here in 1790 and their descend-ants, and claimed all the surplusgrowth for the foreigners that cameafter 1790 and their posterity, andfor reasons entirely fallacious.

He says that the foreign populationhas a much larger proportion in theproductive age than the American.This is true ; but he overlooks one im-portant fact. While in the American,as in all fixed populations, the sexes arenearly equal, allowing opportunity ofmarriage for nearly all; on the otherhand, among the immigrants, from Oc-tober t, 1819, to December 31, 1850,whose ages were given, there were3,264,781 males and 2,099,982 females,or for every 1,000 females 1,554 males,giving opportunity for only two thirdsof the males to marry. This fact issomewhat qualified by their large pre-ponderance in the middle and produc-tive periods of life. Comparatively fewwomen become mothers before theycomplete their twentieth or after theirfortieth year. It is therefore safe toassume the period from twenty to fortyas the productive age, and as the ground

White. Colored. All Colors.

Calculated,Reported,Difference,

3,523.7932,896,458

721,235601,647

4,245,0283,498,105

627,335 119,588 746,923

Immigration. 9ofcomparison between differentpeoplesas to their productiveness.

The ratio of women twenty to fortyyears old was :

Then the proportionate productivepower to the whole population of eachclass is 13.4 per cent of the American,and 18.4 per cent of the immigrant, oras 100 of the former to 137 of the latter,so that the alien race, in this respect,exceeds the native by 37 per cent.

This excess of productive poweramong the foreigners in this countryceases with the first generation; fortheir children and remoter descendantsare nearly equally divided as to sexes,and are distributed, like others, throughthe several ages, as they pass throughlife.

Mr. Schade's Calculations of ForeignIncrease.

Mr. Schade shows the result of hiscalculation of the increase of the for-eign element, and says, “ Accordingto the above calculation, the immi-grants and their descendants numberin 1850,

“Since 1790 .•

. 12,432,150“ iBoa .... 11,032,109“ 1810 . • . 9,277,230“ 1820 .... 8,669,089”1830 .

, . 5,656,847“ 1840.... 3,215,899 ” *

The difference between the numbersof the increase, from any two succes-sive decennial years, to 1850 is theamount of increase during the inter-vening decade. By subtracting thegain, since each year, from the nextpreceding, we have the following num-bers, supposed by Mr. Schade to havebeen gained in the intervals, by immi-grants and their descendants :

* Page 14.

In period 1790 to 1800 this increase was 1,400,041“ “ 1800 “ 1810 “ “ “ 1,754,879“ “ 1810 “ 1820 “ “

“ 608,141“ “ 1820 “ 1830 “

“ “ 3,012,242“ “ 1830 “ IS4O “ “ “ 2,440,948“ “ 1840 “ 1850 “ “ “ 3,215,899

Mr. Schade does not tell us what pro-portion of his supposed foreign elementconsists of immigrants born in othercountries, and what proportion consistsof their children and grandchildren bornin the United States. He seems to be-lieve that both numbers are very large.As evidence of a much greater immi-gration than is usually supposed, herefers on page 11 to Dr. Chickering’sestimate that fifty per cent should beadded to the number of recorded andofficially reported immigrants, for thosewho come unnoticed by public authori-ties, from and through the BritishProvinces.

In support ofhis theory of large nat-ural increase by births in foreign fam-ilies Mr. Schade says: “ The birthswere in Massachusetts in the threeyears 1849, 1850, and 1851, of Americanparents, 47,982, or 578 in 10,000 of theirown race ; foreign, 24,523, or 1,491 in10,000 of their own race.” *

In this statement of American andforeign births the figures are correct,but not so the numbers of the respec-tive races that are assumed as thebases of comparison. The foreign raceincludes all of its own blood, parents andchildren, whether born abroad or bornhere. The American race includesonly its own children. But Mr. Schadeincludes in the foreign race only thoseborn in other lands ; and in the Amer-ican he includes not only its own chil-dren, but also those children of foreign-ers who, having been born in the UnitedStates since their parents’ arrival, arelegally but not ethnologically Ameri-cans. By transferring these childrenof the aliens from the American to theforeign class, we materially diminish theformer and increase its birth-rate, whilewe increase the latter class and dimin-ish its proportionate fertility ; thus les-sening the apparent preponderance of

* Page 10.

To allPersons.

To allFemales.

Whites in United States,i860, excluding immi-grants, 1850 to i860, . 134 perct. 27.8 perct.

Immigrants arriving 1819to i860, 18.4 “

47.0“

Population of Englandand Wales, i85i, 15-6 “

30-7“

Immigration.

growth of the foreign element in ourpopulation.

Irish Population.Whatever may be the fertility of the

foreign families in Massachusetts, thefact applies almost exclusively to theIrish, who constitute about 70 per centof the foreign population in Massachu-setts, but less than 40 per cent of theforeigners in the whole country. TheseCelts are very prone to marry, andtheir marriages are very productive.But it is yet doubtful whether their highbirth-rate adds to the permanent pop-ulation. Certainly their mortality, es-pecially in infancy, is higher than thatof American families. Most of thembelong to the class whose straitened cir-cumstances and improvident habits aremost unfavorable to the developmentof sound constitutions and the mainte-nance of health and power in theirchildren.

The British, the Germans, the Scan-dinavians and others, who constitutemore than 60 per cent of the foreignersin this country, are generally of morecautious temperament and are moreprovident managers ; they are less hastyin marrying, and probably less prolific,and they have a lower rate of mortality.

Increase ofPopulation not in Ratio ofBirths.

In determining the rate of increaseof any population, the birth-rate is butone of the elements to be considered.An equally important matter is thenumber of years during which the new-born shall remain in the community.In this respect, the numbers of peoplein a state are like those in a college inwhich a definite number enter yearlyand as many leave at the end of theprescribed course. If a hundred enterand the course be three years, therewill be three classes and three hundredstudents constantly present. But ifthe course be four years, there will befour classes and four hundred membersof the college. A living octogenarianhas been annually counted eighty timesin the census, and a dead infant onlyonce; and each of these and personsof all intermediate ages have added tothe numbers of the people in proportionto the years they have lived.

With an equal number of births, thelong-lived race adds most to the con-stant population. This is in ratio ofthe years they may enjoy. The lifetables of various countries show thedifference. Of 1,000,000, born in eachcountry, the survivors will be :

One million births, in each year,through several generations, will sup-port a constant population in England,40,858,204; in France, 34,938 >543 ; inIreland, 22,505,101.

Deductions drawn from the bills ofmortality are not so accurate as thosedrawn from the life tables ; neverthe-less they offer an approximation to thetruth. The table, No. XXXV. in themortality volume of the eighth census,page 275, contains the results of theanalysis of the death records of thirtyStates and countries, showing the pro-

portion of the deaths that happened toyouth before maturity at twenty. InMassachusetts, from 1841 to 1850 in-clusive, this proportion was 4,687 in10.000 of all ages. Until 1850, thepopulation of that State was almostentirely American. But then the fam-ilies of the immigrants began to mul-tiply, their numerous children formeda larger proportion of the people, andthey were of the perishable class ; con-sequently, from 1851 to 1863 the propor-tion ofyouth who died grew to 5,733 in10.000 of all.

At Ages Sweden. England. France. Holland. Belgium. Austria. Ireland.

20 669,800 662,756 629,901 609,020 534.500 521,300 501,50040 567,000 538,584 464,869 489,840 408,890 396,20060 384,900 367,827 205,006 3“.73o 272,420 189,500

Immigration. 11

Analysis ofMr. Schade's supposed In-crease ofthe Foreign Element of thePopulation.

Mr. Schade does not state the partswhich immigrants and their childrenhave respectively contributed to thegrowth of the foreign element in theseveral decades of years, from 1790to 1850. Yet his assertions that theAmericans have increased at the an-nual rate of 1.38 per cent only, whileall the rest of the growth of popula-tion has been due to the multiplicationof foreigners and their children, andthat the birth-rate is 5.78 per cent inAmerican and 14.91 per cent, or 2.579times greater, in foreign families, fur-nish means of approximately determin-ing his rate of natural increase amongthe aliens. Assuming the excess ofbirths over deaths in the two racesto be in the same proportion astheir birth-rates, his natural increaseof the foreign element is 3-5597 percent a year. This seems to be a fixedfactor in Mr. Schade’s theory of itsgrowth, while immigration is a vari-able factor, changing according to thenumbers required to complete the in-crease in the successive decades.

In the first decade, 1790 to 1800, Mr.Schade supposes the foreign increaseto have been 1,400,041. This con-sisted exclusively of new immigrantsand their children born after their ar-rival. The foreigners are presumed tohave come in equal yearly numbers,and to have had a chance or hope ofan average life of five years, before1800, as well as an annual natural in-crease of 3.5597 per cent for the sameperiod. On these data, an algebraicequation shows that the foreign ele-ment of our population, living at theend of 1800, consisted of 1,188.420 im-migrants, who had arrived since 1790,with their 211,620 children who wereborn here. To these immigrants livingm 1800 must be added those that diedafter landing here, at an annual rate of2.4 per cent; these would make, withthe survivors, 1,350,472 arrivals in theten years 1790- 1800.

In the period, 1800 to 1810, Mr.Schade’s supposed increase of the for-eign element was 1,754,879. Theybegan with an assumed capital of1,400,041, whose natural increase was498,372 in these ten years ; and1,256,507 were to be gained by new im-migrants and their children who shouldsurvive to 1810. By calculation, thesewere 1,066,667 natives of other landsand 189,840 born here ; and the arri-vals were 1,212,117.

Theperiod 181oto 1820began with anacquired capital of 3,154,920 foreign-ers and their children. Mr. Schade’sassumed gain was 608,141. The naturalincrease of only 1.9 per cent annuallyon those already here added all thatwas necessary to complete the theory,and no immigrants were required forthat purpose in this decade.

The next period, 1820 to 1830, wassupposed to open with 3,763,06z inthe foreign element, and there were3,012,242 tobe added to these. Besidethe natural increase of those alreadyhere, it was necessary that 1,613,981new immigrants should arrive, whosesurvivors and children, in 1830, wouldcomplete the supposed gain in theseten years.

From this time forth there was littleneed of further immigration to fulfilMr. Schade’s idea of foreign increase.He had created so large a supply of for-eigners in the early stages of this his-tory, that their natural increase, at hisassumed rate, made it necessary thatonly 11,055 nevv aliens should come inthe period 1830 to 1840, and none inthe period 1840 to 1850, to give all theenormous gain which his theory re-quires. Moreover, in the last period thenatural increase at the presumed rategave 64,805 more than was needed forhis gain of 3,215,899.

In three of the decennial periods,Mr. Schade’s increase of the foreignelement is greater than the whole ac-tual increase of white population asshown by the successive censuses,leaving no increase, but, on the con-trary, a decrease, of the American ele-ment.

Immigration.12

Mr. Rapp's Estimate of Foreign In-crease.

Mr. Kapp’s estimate of the increaseof the foreign element of populationdiffers in details from that of Mr.Schade, although he starts with thesame theory, that the American in-crease is only 1.38 per cent, and thatall the surplus has been derived fromforeign sources since 1790. He sim-

ply calculates the American growth atthis rate, subtracts the result from thetotal white and free colored populationat each census, and assumes that theseveral remainders are immigrantssince 1790 with their children, grand-children, etc.* He says,| “The wholewhite and free colored population, in1790, having been 3,231,930, it wouldhave amounted, if increased only bythe excess of births over deaths,” tothe numbers in the second column inthe table below, “while, in fact, it was,exclusive of slaves,” as in the thirdcolumn, both of which are quoted fromhis address. The numbers in the fourthand sixth columns are deduced from hisfigures in the second and third.

Mr. Kapp says, “ Samuel Blodgett, avery accurate statistician, wrote, in 1806,that from the best records and esti-mates then attainable, the immigrantsarriving, between 1784 and 1794, didnot average more than 4,000 per annum.Seybert assumes that 6,000 persons ar-rived in the United States, from for-eign countries, between 1790 and 1810.Both averages seem too large: 3,000for the first, 4,000 for the second, periodnamed is a very liberal estimate.”*Mr. Kapp makes no objection to Pro-fessor Tucker’s estimate of 114,000arrivals, between 1810 and 1820. Hequotes, with seeming approval, thegovernment reports of the numbersthat came, in subsequent years, exceptfor the ten years 1844 to 1854, whenhe appears to think that the German

� Address, p. 5.

immigrants were 30 per cent, and theIrish 28 per cent, more than thosegiven by national documents. For therest there is no apparent differencebetween his estimates and the returnsof the custom-house officers.

It is safe, then, to assume that thenumbers estimated by Messrs. Seybertand Tucker and those reported by thegovernment officials, with the excep-tion of the ten years 1845 to 1855, in~

clude, at least, all the increase of theforeign element which Mr. Kapp creditsto actual immigration from other coun-tries ; and that all the rest of this in-crease has been due, in his opinion, tobirths of foreigners’ children and grand-

� Address, p. 16.t Page 17.t Page 17.§ Estimated in round numbers.

Period.Increase of

whites accordingto the censuses.

Increase of theforeign elementby Mr. Schade’s

theory.

1790 -18001800 - 18101820- 1830

1,148,9411,SS°« I 322,493,663

1,400,0411,754,8793,012,252

Mr. Kapp’s statement, t Deductions from Mr. Kapp’s statements.

Americanpopula-tion increasing atrate of 1.38 per

Total population,exclusive of

slaves.

Increase of the foreign element.

Year.Total since 1790.

In periods of ten years each.cent a year. Period. Number.

1800 3,706,674 4,412,896 706,222 1790- 1800 706,2221810 4.251.>43 6,048,450 x,797.307 l800 - l8lO 1,091,0851820 4.875,600. 8,100,056 3,224,456 1810- 1820 1,429,1491830 5-59 l '775 10,796,077 5,204,302 1820- 1S30 1,979,8461840 6,413.161 14,582,008 8,168,847

12,632,1401830- 1840 2,964.545

1850 7.355.42,3 19,987,563 1840- 1850 4,463,293i860 8,435.882 27,489,662 19,053,780 1850- i860 6,421,6401865 9.034.249 about

30,000,000 §20,965,755 five years.

i860 - 18651,911,975

Immigration. 13children in the United States since1790. With these assumptions and on

the basis of Mr. Kapp’s figures, thefollowing calculations of the numberand rate of births in foreign familiesin the several decennial periods aremade:

Period 1790 - 1800.Mr. Kapp’s assumed foreign gain was . 706,22aForeign Immigrants . , . 50,000

Surviving to 1800 .... 44,282

Leaving 661,940

to be supplied by children born in thisperiod and living to 1800. Beside these661,940 who survived to 1800, therewere naturally others born, who died inthe course of the period. These mustbe added to the survivors to completethe totality of births. The due pro-portion of these deaths was 26.976 percent of the survivors, 178,564; addthese to the survivors, 661,940, andthere were 840,504 births necessary, inforeign families, to complete Mr. Kapp’ssupposed increase in this decade.

Sources ofNatural Increase..Mr. Kapp’s theory of foreign in-

crease includes, in its sources of births,only the immigrants who arrived after1790,and their descendants, when theyhad reached the productive age. Henceall the children that enter into his esti-mate of the increase of this period wereborn of the 50,000, who came between1790 and 1800. These strangers arepresumed to have arrived in equal yearlynumbers. They had a chance or hopeof living an average of five years eachbefore 1800, and the sum of all theirlives is presumed to be 250,000 yearsin this decade.

Of the 50,000 immigrants, the fe-males were 19,577 ; 47 per cent of thesefemales, or 9,301, were twenty to fortyyears old, and therefore of the mar-riageable age.

If all these females were married attwenty, and lived in uninterrupted wed-lock until they had completed their for-tieth year, the whole enjoyed a produc-tive life equal to 46,505 years in thisdecade, between 1790 and 180 a

The number of births necessary tocomplete Mr. Kapp’s supposed in-crease in this decade was 840,504.The number of productive years of fe-males between twenty and forty was46,505. Dividing the number of birthsby the productive years shows thatevery female must have borne 18.07children in each year in order to sat-isfy the theory.

Period 1800- 1810.Mr. Kapp’s assumed foreign gain in this

period was 1,091,085The increase of foreigners was, by immi-

gration 61,993To be accounted for, bybirths of children

living to 1810 ..... 1,029,092Add the number who died, in course of

the period 278,953

And we have 1,308,045the number of births in this decadenecessary to produce the increaseassumed by Mr. Kapp.

There is another contingency to beprovided for. According to the theo-ry of Messrs. Schade and Kapp, thegains that accrued in each decade werepermanent. That is, whatever losseshappened by death, these were com-pensated by an equal increase of births.

In 1800,the beginning of this period,there were presumed to be 641,940children surviving from the births inforeign families since 1790. Theseconstituted the greater part of the gainat that time. They were subject to 2.4per cent annual mortality, and therebylost 138,446, in course of these tenyears, and so many were needed to beborn and survive to the end to fill theirplaces. As the last were only the sur-vivors of the compensating births, thenumber 37,347 who died among themmust also be added to those born inthis period, making 175,793 births ne-cessary to supply the loss on the pre-vious increase. Add these to thoseneeded for the increase of this period,1,308,103, and there was a total of1,483,896 births necessary in this pe-

riod to sustain and complete Mr. Kapp’ssupposed increase.

The sources of this increase or theproductive power were, l. The 44,282

14 Immigration.survivors of the immigrants of the pre-vious period ; 2. The 70,000 who ar-rived in this decade. Of the former,17,338 were females, and 8,148 of thesewere of the productive age, twenty toforty, who had a chance or a hope ofliving ten years each, or a total of81,480 years within this period.

Of those who arrived in this decade,27,881 were females, and 12,881 wereof the productive age. They had achance or hope of an average of fiveyears of life, and the whole of 64,405years, within this period.The productive years were, then, of the

first class 81,480Of the second class .... 64,405

Total 145,883Dividing the total births required,.1,483,896, among the productive years,gives 10.13 births a year for each fe-male between twenty and forty yearsold. This also presupposes that everywoman was married at twenty, andlived in uninterrupted wedlock untilshe was past forty.

Period 1810- 1820.Mr. Kapp’s assumed foreign gain, in this

period, was ...... 1,427,149The increase of immigrantsliving in 1810 was 80,100

Leaving 1,347,049

to be supplied by births of childrenwho would be alive in 1820.

For this addition to the living in1820, and for the losses by death in theperiod, it was necessary that 1,710,428should be born. To compensate forthe losses among the children born inthe two previous decades and survivingto 1810, 442,786 births were needed;making, in all, 2,153,214 births requisitein this period to provide for the as-sumed increase and to keep the formerincrease full.

The sources of these births were theforeigners who arrived previous to 1820and their children born here and reach-ing the marriageable age in this period.The sum of their presumed productiveyears was 1,130,303 ; and in order thatthey should add the number of childrenliving in 1820, needful to sustain Mr.Kapp’s theory of the increase of the for-

eign element in this decade, every fe-male between the ages of twenty andforty must have borne, on an average,1.9 children a year.

In the next period, 1820 to 1830, Mr.Kapp’s theory implies the necessity of3’376,936 births for the new increase,and to compensate for losses by deathamong the immigrants and their chil-dren. There were 4.290,180 produc-tive years among the females, con-sequently there must have been anaverage of one birth in every sixteenand a half months.

In the followingperiod,. 1830 to 1840,there vras a need of 4,374.330 births.There were 7,742,897 productive years,and an average of one birth in one anda quarter years of female life, betweenthe ages of twenty and forty.

With so large an accumulation of for-eigners and their descendants assumedto be living in the United States in1840, the proportions of births neededfor Mr. Kapp’s supposed increase, inthe subsequent periods, do not exceedthe bounds of possibility; and if hisdata thus far are correct, his deductionsmay also be admitted.

Rate of Natural Increase diminishedwith Increase ofForeigners.

It is a noteworthy fact, that the rateof natural increase has diminishedwiththe increase of foreigners. I3y com-paring the numbers of foreigners inour population with those of the totalwhites, at the several decennial years,or the average numbers of the foreign-ers with the average numbers of totalwhites during the decennialperiods, weobtain the proportions between theseclasses at each period.

The difference between the totalnumbers of whites at each decennialyear and the total whites, minus thearriving foreigners at the next follow-ing decennial year, shows the naturalincrease or excess of births over deathsin the intervening period. And hencethe rate of natural increase is easilycalculated.

By these means the following tableis made:

Immigration.

Proportion ofForeigners to total Whites and Natural Increase of Whites.

In the twenty years 1790-1810,when the average foreign populationwas one ninety-third of the total whites,the rate of natural increase was 30.9per cent greater than it was in thetwenty years, 1840-1860, when theyconstituted two seventeenths of ourpeople.

The theories of Messrs. Schade andKapp, in respect to the increase of theforeign element of the population of theUnited States, being built without foun-dation, and being sustained by explana-tions at war with the recorded facts ofthe censuses, lead to deductions incon-.sistent with each other and at variancewith the recognized laws of populationand mortality. They imply an incredi-ble immigration in the early periods, oran impossible birth-rate, to produce asufficiency of the foreign element tocomplete their supposed increase in theseveral decades of years. Or if neitherof these is admitted to the fullest ex-tent herein calculated for Mr. Schadeand Mr. Kapp, if Mr. Schade is sup-posed to mean a larger birth-rate thanhe seems to indicate, and Mr. Kappa larger immigration than he states,and consequently a smaller immigra-tion is necessary for the former, anda lower birth-rate is needful for the lat-ter, to establish their theories of foreignincrease, in whatever proportion theydivide their supposed gains of the for-eign element between these, the only

sources of population, they assume afruitfulness of one or the other, or ofboth, beyond all human experience.

There is not only no ground for thetheory of the limited growth of theAmerican, and of the unlimited growthof the foreign, element in the populationof the United States, but, on the con-trary, the natural increase is at a lowerrate in the foreign than in the Americanfamilies.

The whole number of foreigners liv-ing in this country, January 1, 1870, was5,566,546 ; and their families, parentsand children, amounted to 9,734,843persons. Add to these the grandchil-dren of the immigrants of the fortyyears 1790-1830, who came earlyenough for their children to be bornhere, grow to maturity, marry and be-come heads of families, and the wholewill not much exceed 10.500,000;■whereas if the rates of natural increasewere equal for both races from 1790,the American element would have been21,479,595, and the foreign 11,607,394,in 1870 ; and these classes several-ly would have been 19,110,078 and7,847,373 in iB6O, and 15,644,448 and3,908,620 in 1850, and the numbers innative families would have been 80 percent in 1850 and 71 per cent in iB6O,instead of 36 and 29 per cent as sup-posed by Mr. Kapp. But the propor-tion of the whole white population iseven more largely American than this.

Edward Jarvis.

Decennial Years. Decennial Periods.

Year. TotalWhites. Foreigners.

Whites toone For-eigner.

Period. AverageWhites.

AverageForeigners.

Whitesto one

Foreigner.

Rate ofnatural

Increase.

17901800

3,162,0204-305.961 44,282 113 1790 -1800 3,733,99° 25,000 149

per cent.34 77

1810 5,862,093 96-725 60 l800 - l8lO 5,084,027 69,506 73 34-721820 8,043,915 176,825 45 1810 - 1820 6,953,004 136,775 51 35-5°1830 10,537,378 315,830 33 1820 ~ 183O 9,290,646 246,327 37 28.921840 14,189,108 859,202 IS 1830- 1840 12,363,243 5«7,5i6 22 28.661850 19.553.068 2,240,535 8 184O“ 185O 16,891,088 1,549,866 IO.7 26.77i860 26,957,471 4.136,175 6 1850 - i860 23,255,299 3,188,353 7 26-'3I1870 33,586,989 5.566,546 6 i860 - iS/O 30,273,664 4,801,360 6-5 IS 97