IMPACT ANALYSIS OF THE PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION ON ALABAMA

Michael Anderson, Jeffrey Wilson and Jaehoon KimUniversity of Alabama in Huntsville

Logistic, Trade and Transportation Symposium 2014

Canal ExpansionWill allow for the larger ships

Capacity 12,000 TEUs

Methodology

Use FAF3 Database of Freight Flows

Distribute freight traffic between Asia and Inland port through Mobile

Freight Passing Through - Port of MobileLocation Zone Mobile

Jacksonville, FL 121 9.6%Miami, FL 122 3.4%

Orlando, FL 123 0.3%Tampa, FL 124 0.5%

Remainder of Florida 129 6.4%Atlanta, GA 131 2.8%

Savannah, GA 132 0.5%Remainder of GA 139 1.7%

Chicago, IL 171 22.3%Indianapolis, IN 182 0.7%

Detroit, MI 261 0.1%Mississippi 280 49.3%

Cincinnati, OH 391 0.1%Remainder of OH 399 0.9%Remainder of TN 479 1.3%

Destination of freight passing through Port of Mobile(FAF3)

Additionally, had Freight to Birmingham, Mobile and Remainder of AL

Sensitivity Analysis

Scenario Increased volume

Base (1) -

2 8,000 TEUs Post-Panamax vessel per two month

3 8,000 TEUs Post-Panamax vessel per a month

4 Two 8,000 TEUs Post-Panamax vessel per a month

5 12,000 TEUs Post-Panamax vessel per two month

6 12,000 TEUs Post-Panamax vessel per a month

7 Two 12,000 TEUs Post-Panamax vessel per a month

Alabama Statewide Travel Demand Model

• 1158 Zone Model

• Has capacity and existing traffic volume for all segments

• Distribution of freight trips to/from Port of Mobile based on FAF3 distribution

• Expanded volumes based on scenarios

Impact/Conclusions

• Worst case scenario– An additional 6 miles of roadway exceed capacity

– Only 4.5 miles had V/C ratio increases greater than 0.05

• Majority of Alabama have capacity to handle addition freight traffic

• Greatest impact will be felt in Mobile near the port facility