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Impact Assessment of Hydroclimatic Change on Water Stress in the Indus Basin

by

Bilhuda Rasheed

Bachelor of Arts (magna cum laude) in Astrophysics

Princeton University (2010)

Submitted to the Engineering Systems Division

in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of

Master of Science in Technology and Policy

at the

MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

September 2013

Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2013. All rights reserved.

Author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Technology and Policy Program

August 9, 2013

Certified by . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Dr. C. Adam Schlosser

Principal Research Scientist and Assistant Director for Science Research

MIT Joint Program for the Science and Policy of Global Change

Thesis Supervisor

Certified by

Dr. Afreen Siddiqi

Research Scientist, Engineering Systems Division

Thesis Reader

Accepted by... Dr. Dava J. Newman

Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics and Engineering Systems Director, Technology and Policy Program

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Impact Assessment of Hydroclimatic Change on Water Stress in the Indus Basin

by

Bilhuda Rasheed

Submitted to the Engineering Systems Division

on August 9, 2013, in partial fulfillment of the

requirements for the degree of

Master of Science in Technology and Policy

Abstract

Ninety percent of Pakistans agricultural output is produced in fields irrigated by the Indus basin

irrigation system, the worlds largest network of canals, dams, barrages and tubewells. River flows,

primarily fed by snow and glacial melt, are highly seasonal and fluctuate between intense floods and

droughts. Built storage is relatively small, with withdrawals averaging at 70% of annual availability.

Climate change, growth in sectoral water demands, and changes in water management infrastructure

could have a profound impact on water stress in the coming decades. The interplay and contribution

of these influences is explored using a model of the managed Indus River basin. To account for key

hydro-climate shifts, I translate temperature rise and glacier cover scenarios into river runoff in 2050.

I also project sectoral water demands to 2050. I then use an optimization model to estimate dam

releases and project water stress to 2050. I find that climate change will cause decreases in peak river

flows, but the changes in runoff will be comparable to current interannual variability. The most

significant increase in water stress is caused by a scenario of 1-2.5C warming and 1% annual glacial

retreat. However, rises in demand have a greater impact on water stress than climate-induced

changes in runoff which can be either positive or negative. The stabilization of global greenhouse gas

emissions checks the rise in water demand and thus lowers future water stress. Effective adaptation

options to an increase in water stress include building more storage capacity, relaxation of water

allocation to allow interprovincial water trading, and adaptation of the cropping calendar to the

natural hydrological cycle.

Thesis Supervisor: Dr. C. Adam Schlosser

Title: Principal Research Scientist and Assistant Director for Science Research

MIT Joint Program for the Science and Policy of Global Change

Thesis Reader: Dr. Afreen Siddiqui

Title: Research Scientist, Engineering Systems Division

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................... 8

1.1 Historical Background ............................................................................................. 12

1.1.1 Colonial Era and the Building of the Indus Basin Irrigation System .......................... 12

1.1.2 Partition and the Indus Waters Treaty ..................................................................... 14

1.2 Storage Infrastructure in the Indus Basin ................................................................. 15

1.3 Scarcity and Climate Change .................................................................................... 18

1.4 Modeling Global Change Impacts on Water Stress ................................................... 22

1.5 Scope of This Work ................................................................................................. 25

2 Water Management in Pakistan .......................................................................... 26

2.1 A Management Model of the Indus Basin System .................................................... 28

2.1.1 Estimating Monthly Water Supply ............................................................................ 29

2.1.2 Estimating Monthly Water Demands and Withdrawal Requirements ..................... 30

2.1.3 Model Operation and Constraints ............................................................................ 37

2.2 Mean Annual Cycle of Water Stress in Major Indus Provinces ................................... 43

2.3 Augmenting Storage Capacity on the Indus .............................................................. 46

2.4 Monthly Water Stress ............................................................................................. 47

3 Climate Change Analysis ..................................................................................... 56

3.1 Climate Change: Trends and Projections .................................................................. 56

3.2 Scenario A: Stable Climate ....................................................................................... 57

3.3 Scenario B: Temperature Rise with a Stable Glacier Cover ........................................ 59

3.4 Scenario C: Shrinkage of Glacier Cover ..................................................................... 74

3.5 Projection of Water Demand ................................................................................... 77

3.6 Scenario Ensemble .................................................................................................. 79

3.7 Results: Water Stress in 2050 .................................................................................. 81

3.8 Summary of Results ................................................................................................ 87

4 Options for Lowering Water Stress ...................................................................... 91

4.1 Interprovincial Water Trading .................................................................................. 91

4.2 Adapting Cropping Patterns .................................................................................... 92

4.3 Building the Next Dam ............................................................................................ 96

4.3.1 Interprovincial Water Accord.................................................................................... 99

4.3.2 Objections by KPK ..................................................................................................... 99

4.3.3 Objections by Sindh ................................................................................................ 100

4.3.4 Response to Sindhs Concerns ................................................................................ 101

4.3.5 Response to KPKs Concerns ................................................................................... 104

4.3.6 Why the Critics Are Unconvinced ........................................................................... 104

4.3.7 Policy Lessons ......................................................................................................... 106

References .............................................................................................................. 111

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Acronyms

BCM billion cubic meters

CSIRO Commonweath Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

EPPA Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis

GCM General circulation model

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IRSA Indus River System Authority

KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwah

MAF million acre feet

MCM million cubic meters

NARD National Agro-Ecological Resources Database

NAS National Academy of Sciences

NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research

PARC Pakistan Agricultural Research Council

PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department

PMF probability mass function

PNAS Proceedings of the National Academy of Science

WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority

WRS Water Resource Systems

1 MAF approximately equals 1233.45 MCM.

1 BCM = 1000 MCM

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1 INTRODUCTION

The Indus river and its tributaries irrigate one of the worlds most fertile and populous

regions in modern day Pakistan and northwestern India. The rivers originate in the Western

Himalaya, Karakoram and Hindukush mountains bordering the northwest of the Indian

subcontinent. The upper Indus basin boasts the highest co