Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Ensuring Water in a Changing WorldEnsuring Water in a Changing World

Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO)webinar series on the human health effects of climate change.

April 29th, 2008

Climate Change & The Global Water Cycle: Recent Regional Experiences

Soroosh Sorooshian Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing

University of California Irvine

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

University of California Irvine (UCI) and Arizona (UA)

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvineand many more …

CHRS & Affiliates: A truly International Team

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

A Unique Planet: Blue, Green and alive!

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Earth's atmosphere:78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases

Atmosphere of Earth vs. Mars and Venus

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Distribution of Freshwater

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Distribution of Fresh Water Use

90.8 33.4%

17.1%49.5%

460

7.0%6.0%

87.0%

36.47

18.6%

22.0%59.4%

117

60.0%17.0%

23.0%

467.34

45.2%

13.1%

41.7%

380

4.0% 3.0%

93.0% Agriculture

Industry

Domestic

Fresh Water Use(109 Cubic Meters)

Water Source

Water Use

USA China India

Russia Japan Brazil

92%6%

2%

70.3Iran

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Increasing Population: Number of Mega Cities

Global Urban population 1970: ~37%2010: ~53%

Projected Global Population: 8.3 Billion by 2025

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

The Big Question as to Whether Our Planet Is Warming Up and The Hydrologic Cycle is

Intensifying, has been addressed by The Recent IPCC Report

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Evidence for reality of climate change: Glaciers MeltingEvidence for reality of climate change: Glaciers Melting

1909

2000

Muir Glacier, Alaska

1900 2003Alpine glacier, Austria

1900 2003Alpine glacier, AustriaToboggan Glacier Alaska

Provided By: Kevin Trenberth

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, IrvineSource: NASA GISS 2007

Global Temperature Anomalies: 2007

Tied (with 1998) for the second warmest year (2005 Warmest)

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Global Warming And Hydrologic Cycle Connection

Heating

Temperature Evaporation

Water Holding Capacity

Atmospheric Moisture

Source: Gi-Hyeon Park

Green House Effect

Consequence:Intensification of Hydrologic cycle

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Observed changes: Heavy Precipitation

From 1908-2002:

Total annual precipitation across the contiguous U.S. increased 7%

Heavy daily Precipitation events have increased by 20%

Rainfall associated with warmer climates are more due to extreme events compared to colder climates

Facts from Observations

10

0Confidence Index

Source: Tom Karl NCDC-NOAA 2007

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Record Floods: Among the worst Natural Disasters

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Record Floods: Among the worst Natural Disasters

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Los Angeles (1955)

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Jun- 48 Jun- 52 Jun- 56 Jun- 60 Jun- 64 Jun- 68 Jun- 72 Jun- 76 Jun- 80 Jun- 84 Jun- 88 Jun- 92 Jun- 96 Jun- 00

Eve

nt to

tal p

reci

pita

tion

(mm

)

Eve

nt d

urat

ion

(day

s)

2

4

6

0

8

10

12

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200

400

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1200

Total precipitation (mm) and duration (days) of extreme events in Texas

Normal annual precipitation in Texas is 650~750mmSource: J. Nielsen-Gammon et al., 2005

Extreme Precipitation events: Texas, USA (1948- 2001)

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

American River Runoff Annual Maximum 1-Day Flow

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

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1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Water Year

1,00

0 cf

s

Unimpaired Runoff at Fair Oaks

Changes in Peak Flows American River, California

Red Line = Construction of Folsom Dam From: J. Andrew DWR-DFM

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Observed changes: Drought Reconstruction

• Within the past millennium there have been severe droughts in both the western U.S. and Midwest that have lasted for multiple decades (50 years).

Drought as documented in the paleoclimatic record?

10

0

5 Confidence Index

Source: Tom Karl NCDC-NOAA 2007

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

16th century “megadrought”1930’s dustbowl

>100 year “megadroughts”

2000-year Climate history of central U.S.

DustBowl

2000 yrs. ago Today

The US Breadbasket: The Mid-West

Source: Overpeck 2004

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Ensuring Water in a Changing WorldEnsuring Water in a Changing World

Challenge of predicting the future Climate:

While we Attempt to Improve Our Scientific Understanding of the Climate System, We Face Major Issues With Uncertainties in Information We Can Provide to “Users”

Challenge of predicting the future Climate:

While we Attempt to Improve Our Scientific Understanding of the Climate System, We Face Major Issues With Uncertainties in Information We Can Provide to “Users”

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Some Results at the Seasonal to Inter-annual and Longer time Scales:

Climate Predictions into the Future!

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Climate model Predictions about the future? globallyDJF Precipitation ChangesCM2 - Old model

CM3 - Updated model

Significant differences in regional outcomes!

Source: Hadley Center (Climate Change Projections)

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Model annual precipitation trends over 21st century

Hadley Center: Southwest dries out

What to tell water managers?

Canadian Center: Southwest extremely wet

Source: US National Assessment Report, 2000

What do climate models tell us about the future?

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Canadian Prairie drought 1999-2005

500 km

2001/02

Source: Ronald Stewart

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

SEASONAL PREDICTIONS: Summer of 2005 - Canada

PREDICTION OBSERVATION

AboveNormal

BelowNormal

Source: Ronald Stewart

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

(flooding at the end of the drought)

St. Jean de Baptiste, ManitobaJuly 2005

Source: Ronald Stewart

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Recent Extreme Conditions in the U.S. Southwest

Lake Powell, Colorado River, USA

Normal Years

Sever Multi-year Drought through 2004

Source: J. Kane SRP 2004

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Eye-Catching Article in Science Magazine

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Observed changes: Drought

• U.S. droughts show pronounced multi-year to multi-decadal variability, but no convincing evidence for long-term trends toward more or fewer events.

Drought activity during the 20th and early 21st Century

10

0

5Confidence Index

Based on Palmer Drought IndexModerate to Extreme Drought

Source: Tom Karl NCDC-NOAA 2007

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Practices in Factoring in Climate and Extreme Events in

Water Resources:Engineering Approach:

Control, Store, Use & Deliver for Multi-Purposes

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Hoover Dam

Glen Canyon Dam

Central Arizona Project Aqueduct

A Century of Water Resources Development: Engineering success!

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Time of Construction = 1935Total Storage Capacity = 38.6 BCMAnnual Inflow = 15.4 BCMDrainage Area = 432,500 Km2

Time to fill =2.5 YearsPower Generation = 2,074 MW

Time of Construction = 1963Total Storage Capacity = 33.3 BCMAnnual Inflow = 15.4 BCMDrainage Area = 280,570 Km2

Time to fill = 2.24 YearsPower Generation = 1,356 MW

Hoover Dam

Glen Canyon Dam

Built-In Resiliency in water resources Systems!

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Colorado Basin400%

California Region100%

Storage Capacity/Streamflow Relationship

B. Imam, CHRS-UC Irvine

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

“News From Space”

Satellite ObservationsSatellite Observations

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

SatelliteHuman Eye

Ref

lect

ance

( % )

Visible Range

80

40

00.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6

Wavelength (µm)

40

20

0Bare Soil

HealthyVegetation

40

20

0

StressedVegetation

40

20

0

FreshSnow

SeaWater

543210

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Remote Sensing Systems (Spectral Signal)

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Current Meteorological and Earth Observing Satellites in Space

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Precipitation Observations: Which to trust??

Sources: R. Fulton, D.-J. Seo. and J. Breidenbach, AMS Short-Course on QPE/QPF, 2002

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Satellite Products: Promising future

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

A Key Requirement!

Measurement of Rainfall is a Major Challenge

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Temporal Scale Importance: Daily Precip. at 2 stations

0

20

40

1 6 11 16 21 26

0

20

40

1 6 11 16 21 26

Frequency 6.7%Intensity 37.5 mm

Frequency 67%Intensity 3.75 mm

MonthlyAmount 75 mm

Amount 75 mm

localfloods

soil moisture replenishedvirtually no runoff

A

B

Source: K. Trenberth, NCARSource: K. Trenberth, NCAR

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Water Quality Concerns

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Available Resources

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Satellite Products: Promising future

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Satellite Products: Promising future

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Global Flood Archive for 2007

http://www.dartmouth.edu/~floods/

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

U.S. Drought Monitor ( Multi Agency Effort)

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

U.S. Drought Outlook ( Multi Agency Effort)

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

AHPS Flood Forecast system (U.S.A)

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Monitoring of Global Fires from Space

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine

Thank You For ListeningThank You For Listening

The Rio Grande River, NM Photo: J. Sorooshian 2005