Impact of Climate Change in Developing Countries

Presentation by Svein Tveitdal and Frank Turyatunga

Oslo September 18 2007

Focus on PovertyUneven Record of

SuccessChina, India and other places in Southeast Asia have experienced

significant progress in poverty reduction while others have been left behind

Dilemma

“We have the right to do as you – use cheap (fossil) energy to bring us out of poverty – and clean up afterwards”poor countries about the rich

How much must emissions be reduced

Action now decides the temperature in 2100 2 degrees C - a warming we can live with More than this can get the development out of

control Stabilization goal ≤ 500 ppm CO2 equivalents Scientists: Emissions to be reduced by 50-85%

by 2050 (1990 base line) Uncertainty and conservatism in the

projections of the IPCC projections Precautionary principle might require a

reduction target on 80 % by 2050

Distribution of emission reductions

Rich counytries more than poor countries independent of target

80% global reduction target:

Annex 1 ≥ 90 %

Non Annex 1 ≤ 70 %

Regions most affected:

•The Arctic •Sub-Saharan Africa •Small islands •Asian megadeltas

OBSERVED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN UGANDA

INCREASED INTENSITY OF DROUGHTS

MORE FREQUENT AND INTENSE FLOODS

CHANGES TO TRADITIONAL GROWING SEASONS

MORE FREQUENT CROP FAILURES

INCREASED VULNERABILITY OF COMMUNITIES

FREQUENT AND INTENSE FLOODS

LOSS OF LIVELIHOODS (CURRENTLY 400,000 AFFECTED)

DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE, REDUCED MOBILITY, LIMITED ACCESS TO AID (CURRENTLY OVER 150,000 AFFECTED AND GROWING)

WATER-BORNE DISEASES ON THE INCREASE (CHOLERA, TYPHOID, DYSENTRY)

VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES (MALARIA MORE THAN DOUBLED)

FLOODS IN NORTHERN UGANDA (14.09.07)

DAMAGED BRIDGES

RELIEF FAILS TO GO THROUGH TO PEOPLE

INCREASED TERMITE ACTIVITY IN RANGELANDS

SNOW MELT CHANGING INTERNATIONAL BORDERS IN CONTESTED AREA – RIVER SEMLIKI/LAKE ALBERT

IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT

LOWERING GDP

AFFECTING TOURISM (MT. RWENZORI MELTING GLACIERS, FIRES IN PAs)

EFFECTS ON POWER GENERATION (50% OF HEP LOST, LOWEST LAKE VICTORIA LEVELS IN 83 YEARS)

UNDERMINING GAINS IN POVERTY REDUCTION

A CHALLENGE TO FORWARD-LOOKING PLANNING

STRAIN ON AVAILABLE MEAGRE RESOURCES

LIKELY TO INCREASE DEPENDENCY

PROPOSED APPROACH

REDUCTION OF PEOPLE’S VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE MAKES MORE SENSE

SUPPORT REACTIVE POLICIES THAT STRENGTHEN PREVENTIVE OPTIONS

UTILISE THE POWER OF INFORMATION!