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Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health) in Taiwan Pei-Fen Lee

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North South North South Roads 36000 Km 2 68% vegetated cover

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Elevation vs. Latitude

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Long-term Prediction and Short-term Monitoring Long-term Species distribution database Environmental database Species distribution models Future projection from IPCC data Change in species distribution Short-term Alpine bird distribution (Yushan National Park)

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Finch-billed Bulbul Finch-billed Bulbul ( ) Species distribution data

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Species Distribution Models Logistic regression Discriminant function analysis Artificial neural network (ANN) Cummulative distribution function Genetic algorithm (GARP) MaxEnt

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From Occurrence to Probability White-eared Sibia

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Presence Maps Bufo melanosticus Microhyla inomata

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Climate Change Scenario RSM2 for 2100 (15 x 15 Km grid) CO 2 concentration expected to be doubled IPCC data (1 x 1 Km grid) Species Breeding birds (117 species, 75%) Amphibians (24 species, 73%) Freshwater fishes (25 species, 42%)

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Climate Change Scenario Temperature: RSM2Precipitation: RSM2

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IPCC data Annual mean temperature (C)

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Annual Total Precipitation (mm)

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Fairy Pitta (Pitta nympha) Low-elevation forest species Status: Vulnerable < 10,000 worldwide

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Wintering Breeding (Apr. to Sep.) Source: BirdLife International

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Mean: 22.3C Range: 16~26C n=514 Fairy Pitta: mean temperature 20-25C 98%

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202020502100 CCS - B2 Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta 20-25C Suitable

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202020502100 CMA - A2 Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta 20-25C

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Current 2020 2050 2100 Taiwan Yuhina Taiwan Yuhina: change in distribution due to climate change Reduced suitable habitat Moving toward higher elevation Dramatic change between 2050 and 2100 Suitable

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Endemic Birds Decreasing-distribution: Decreasing-distribution: Taiwan Yuhina Increasing-distribution: Increasing-distribution: Taiwan Hwamei

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Decreasing-distribution: Decreasing-distribution: Taiwan Yuhina Increasing-distribution: Increasing-distribution: Taiwan Hwamei 15 species 2 species

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Breeding Birds: change in species richness CurrentUnder RSM2 In 2100

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Breeding birds: Breeding birds: change in species richness Decrease in low- elevation & mid-elevation Increase in high- elevation

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Amphibians: change in species richness Current RSM2

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Amphibians Amphibians: change in species richness Due to low dispersal ability, most frog species show local contraction in distribution Fragmentation

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Freshwater Fish: change in richness Current RSM2

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Freshwater Fish Negative impact: Low-mid elevation Positive impact: High elevation

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Monitoring from 1922 to 2011 3100-3700 m in elevation in Yushan National Park

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Breeding Bird Monitoring 1992, 2006 & 2009-2011

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Vegetation types Vegetation zoneElevation range (m) Climatic zoneAnnual mean temperature range (C) Alpine zone38003952Subarctic< 4 Juniper shrub36003800Subarctic45 Fir forests31003600Coldtemperate58 Hemlock forests27003100Cooltemperate810 Spruce forests25002700Cooltemperate1011 Mixed forests23002500Temperate1112 Upper Quercus zone 20002300Temperate1214 Lower Quercus zone 15002000Warmtemperate1417 Machilus Castanopsis zone 5001500Subtropical1723

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Population density (#/ha) Population density (#/ha): 1992, 2006 and 2009 High-elevation species Mid-elevation species 13 Species199220062009Trend Alpine Accentor11.354.424.95Down Wren58.6437.5621.90Down Vinaceus Rose Finch37.356.227.96Down Formosan Laughing Thrush40.215.193.01Down Johustens Bush Robin27.3611.948.66Down Formosan Firecrest144.3781.57132.10Uncertain White-browed Bush Robin11.9416.7111.97Uncertain Yellow-bellied Bush Warbler20.068.9513.13Uncertain Beavans Bullfinch0.325.091.02Uncertain Coal Tit14.905.579.93Uncertain Streak-throated Fulvetta40.5567.2090.54Up Orange Parrotbill0.003.9819.10Up Nuthatch0.00 5.66Up

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Population Trend Density Decreasing: 5 high-elevation species Uncertain: 5 Increasing: 3 mid-elevation species 31 Wren Formosan Firecrest Streak-throated Fulvetta

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Upper distribution limit (m) Species19922009Change Alpine Accentor3602361210 Wren3438 0 Vinaceus Rose Finch3438351374 Formosan Laughing Thrush34473438-9 Johustens Bush Robin3438349254 Formosan Firecrest3338342284 White-browed Bush Robin31823454272 Yellow-bellied Bush Warbler3338343496 Beavans Bullfinch3180320020 Coal Tit3223330380 Streak-throated Fulvetta32583401143 Orange Parrotbill3200? Nuthatch3200?

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Changes between 1992 and 2009 2009 vs. 1992 Change in mean elevation (m)+42.9 Change in mean upper limit (m)+33.7

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Community pattern Biodiversity increase in high elevation 34

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Temperature Change Summer Winter

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Decrease in snow days 1992 40 days 2006 11 days

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Dongsha Atoll National Park South China Sea

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Climate Change Impacts Under climate change, many species are expected to suffer a reduction in habitable area Because smaller areas support smaller populations, species extinction risk is expected to increase

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Climate Change Impacts Short-term change observed in Yushan National Park is similar to those predicted in long-term distribution trend Protected areas may turn out to be in the wrong place in the shifting template of temperature and moisture

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Climate Change Impacts Ecological disturbance in human dominated areas Reduced species richness More pests and unwanted grass species Potential public health problem E.g., dengue fever

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Dengue Trend in Southern Taiwan 2002

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Dengue and Precipitation 2002/6/1

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Dengue case distribution Only concentrated in certain districts

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Dengue and Urban Development Older community Rural region City and county junction Low biodiversity and potentially less managed areas

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Bio-indicators for Climate Change Different species groups Bird, amphibian, fish, barnacle Different ecosystems (spatial) Urban, coastal, high mountain Different temporal scales Month, season, year, decade,

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Barnacle distribution 21 species

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nMDS plot

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Barnacle distribution Species occurrence Abundance