Impact of Climate Change on Food and Nutrition Security in Bangladesh: Issues, Policies and an Agenda for Action

M. AsaduzzamanS. M. Munjurul Hannan Khan

Impact of Climate Change on Food and Nutrition Security in Bangladesh:

Issues, Policies and an Agenda for Action

M. AsaduzzamanS. M. Munjurul Hannan Khan

Dhaka, Bangladesh

June 2017

Nature Conservation Management

Impact of Climate Change on Food and Nutrition Security in Bangladesh: Issues, Policies and an Agenda for Action

M. AsaduzzamanS. M. Munjurul Hannan Khan

© 2017, Nature Conservation Management (NACOM), All rights reserved

Published By : Nature Conservation Management (NACOM)House: 20-21, Apt: D2, Road: 12 Block: FNiketan, Gulshan-1Dhaka-1212+88-02-8832103www.nacom.org

Supported By : Delegation of the European Union to BangladeshDhaka, Bangladesh

No part of this publication may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without the prior written consent of the NACOM, except in case of brief quotation in the academic, research or other purposes using proper citation.

Preferred Citation: Asaduzzaman, M., and S.M. Munjurul Hannan Khan. Impact of Climate Change on Food and Nutrition Security in Bangladesh: Issues, Policies and an Agenda for Action. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Nature Conservation Management, 2017

Disclaimer: Views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NACOM and Delegation of the European Union to Bangladesh.

ISBN : 978-984-34-2510-2

Printed By : Colorline, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Designed by : Amol Das, Colorline

ACKNOWLEDGEMETS

The present publication is the final outcome of the research carried out by the authors under a project titled “Impact of Climate Change on Food and Nutrition Security in Bangladesh: Issues, Policies and an Agenda for Action” supported by the European Union and facilitated by Nature Conservation Management (NACOM). The authors would like to express their gratitude to the European Union for extending their support to this important study. Also, the authors particularly grateful to Mr. Gonzalo SERRANO-DE-LA-ROSA and Mr. Owasim Akram of European Delegation of Bangladesh for their continuous support to conduct the study and prepare the final report. It was their encouragement which finally led us to transform the project report into this small monograph for wider circulation.

The development of several ideas in this study would not have been possible without the active participation of experts and scientists in the workshops during the course of the project. Valuable practical insights were also shared with us by several government agencies as well as development partners. All these contributed immensely to our understanding of the magnitudes and complexities of the problems that we had been trying to grapple with. We express our heartfelt gratitude to all those experts, scientist, on-the-ground workers of various agencies and also the development partners who shared their experience with us.

We tried our best for depicting “Impact of Climate Change on Food and Nutrition Security in Bangladesh: Issues, Policies and an Agenda for Action” in a focused way to identify relevant recommendations for addressing issues of food and nutrition security in Bangladesh. All errors and omissions remain the responsibility of the authors.

M. AsaduzzamanS.M. Munjurul Hannan Khan

List of Acronyms

AEZANCAR5BAUBBSBCCSAPBNNSCDMPCEGISCIPCO2

CSOsDAEDALYDDNDLDOFEUFNSFSFAOGDPGoBHIESHYVIMCI+NIPCCIWFMLDCMAMMIP

Agro-Ecological ZoneAntenatal Care ServiceFifth Assessment Report of IPCCBusiness as UsualBangladesh Bureau of Statistics Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action PlanBangladesh National Nutrition ServiceComprehensive Disaster Management ProgrammeCenter for Environmental and Geographic Information ServicesCountry Investment PlanCarbon dioxideCivil Society OrganizationsDepartment of Agriculture ExtensionDisability-Adjusted Life YearDesirable Dietary NormDepartment of LivestocksDepartment of FisheriesEuropean Union (Delegation of the European Union to Bangladesh) Food and Nutrition SecurityFood SecurityFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Gross domestic productGovernment of BangladeshHousehold and Income Expenditure SurveyHigh-yielding varietyIntegrated Management of Childhood Illness and Nutrition CornerIntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeInstitute of Water and Flood ManagementLeast Developed CountryModerate Acute MalnutritionMulti Annual Indicative Programme

MOEFNACOMNARSNGONNSNPNLPEPRMGSAMSDGSoDSWSRDITRIPSWBWHOWTOWFP

Ministry of Environment and Forests Nature Conservation ManagementNational Agricultural Research System Non Government OrganizationNational Nutrition Service Non-Pregnant, Non-Lactating Poor and Extreme PoorReadymade GarmentsSevere Acute Malnutrition Sustainable Development GoalStanding Order on DisasterSouth WestSoil Resource Development Institute Trade related aspect of Intellectual Property RightsThe World BankWorld Health OrganizationWorld Trade OrganizationWorld Food Programme

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 8

131.1 The Context 151.2 Overall Objective 161.3 Method of Analysis 17

192.1 Definition of Food Security 212.2 Broad Dimensions of Food Security 212.3 Components of Availability 232.4 Components of Access 262.5 Components of Utilisation and Nutrition 282.6 Wastage of Food and Stability of Availability and Access 292.7 Women and Children Issues in Food Security and Nutrition 292.8 A Summing Up 30

333.1 Introduction 353.2 Temperature 353.3 Rainfall 353.4 Sunshine hours 373.5 Salinity 373.6 Natural Hazards 383.7 Climate Change Projections 38

414.1 Introduction 434.2 Definition of Food Security 434.3 Drivers of Food Security 434.4 Summary of AR 5 Review of Present Evidence on Food Security Drivers and

Their Linkages 444.5 Integrated Climate Change Impacts 484.6 Impact on Food Prices and Food Security 494.7 Climate Change and Adaptation in Agriculture 494.8 Research and Data Gaps 514.9 A Summary 51

Chapter 1:

Chapter 2: Concept of Food Security and Its Components

Chapter 3: Climate Variability, Climate Change and Related Physical Events in Bangladesh

Chapter 4: AR5 on Global Food Security and Agriculture

Introduction

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Chapter 5: The Present Situation

Chapter 6: Climate Variability and Stress, Non-climatic Factors and Food and Nutrition Security

Chapter 7: Policies, Programmes, Interventions and Agenda for Action

Chapter 8: Summary and Concluding Remarks

Bangladesh Agriculture and Food Security Issues: 535.1 Introduction 555.2 Natural and Physical Base of Agriculture 555.3 Role of Bangladesh Agriculture 575.4 Cropping Pattern and Cropping Intensity – Predominance of Rice 595.5 Characteristics of Rice Cultivation 615.6 Fisheries in Bangladesh 635.7 Livestock in Bangladesh 645.8 Organisation of Production and Tenurial and Other Production Relations 655.9 Food Security Issues 665.10 A Summing Up 74

756.1 Introduction 776.2 International Literature 776.3 Bangladesh Literature 886.4 Food Security and Nutritional impact of Climatic and Non-climatic Factors 956.5 Vulnerability and Adaptation 976.6 Women's Agency and Empowerment and Factors Influencing Food Security and

Nutrition 986.7 External Factors - Trade, Global Price Shocks 996.8 A Summing Up 100

1017.1 Introduction 1037.2 Policies 1037.3 Programmes, Interventions and Outcomes 1067.4 Lessons of Similar Nutrition and Climate Programmes Elsewhere 1097.5 General Recommendations for Actions 1107.6 Future Directions of EU's MIP 113

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References 119

Annex to Chapter III 130

Annex to Chapter VII 131

Summary Results of the Shouhardo II 131

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYBangladesh has progressed substantially in agriculture over the last 3 decades, particularly in production of rice, the main staple. Yet food and nutrition security (FNS) has not been achieved entirely as other major indicators of such security are still highly unsatisfactory. On the other hand while there are various technical and socio-economic issues confronting agriculture, the threat of climate change has posed new impediments to progress and may jeopardize the gains made so far. Agricultural production and food and nutrition security have to face many climatic as well as the already existing non-climatic challenges.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fifth Report (AR5) has deliberated on these issues and given dire warnings regarding the shape of things to come unless redress measures are undertaken right now. In the light of the analyses of the probable impacts of climate change and climate variability on agricultural production, one may need to find the adaptation strategies and programmes and projects to adjust to the evolving situation and for that the global picture that AR5 has painted need to be contextualised. The present study makes a modest effort to that end for Bangladesh agriculture.

This study report has been commissioned by the European Union which has a major stake in improving the food and nutrition situation in the world in general including Bangladesh for which it operates a Multi-Annual Indicative Programme (MIP) which is expected to run up to 2020. One element of the MIP is Food and Nutrition Security the programmes under which may be fine tuned based on recommendations of the present study.

The objective of this study is toa. Analyze and document the impact of climate change and its variability on major crop

production systems that affect food and nutrition security in Bangladesh; b. Identify policy options and actions to be taken in the country context to address the

predictions of IPCC's AR5 on food security and nutrition.

The study is based by and large on secondary materials, both global (AR5 and non-AR5) and Bangladesh-specific, their assessments and further analysis wherever possible. Moreover, information was elicited through face to face dialogues with various stakeholders on two occasions.

The concept of food security (FS) has been clarified in the beginning of the report. The three elements of food security, namely availability of food, access to food (physical and economic), and utilisation (nutrition aspect) of food have been discussed and their determining factors discussed at length, particularly in the context of climate change. A plethora of issues are involved in understanding FS and for taking appropriate policy actions.

The Issues

There are direct and indirect climate related factors. There are also non-climate factors which ultimately impinge on the same broad dimensions of FS and thus policy action can not be taken in isolation of each other. Furthermore, the food security in all its aspects may also need to be looked through a gendered lens for a clearer picture of differentiated or “divided homes” where women may often be deprived of their due right and privileges. The nutritional outcome of FS have also been more specifically focused and it has been shown that apart from certain technicalities, the conceptual framework for nutritional outcome has broadly the same or similar elements as for FS for which reason we have broadened the term to food and nutrition security (FNS).

The examination of AR5 analyses, diagnosis and predictions along with other literature as mentioned earlier brings several points in bold relief.

First and foremost, while FNS has basically 3 elements of availability, access and utilisation (nutrition), generally, it is the first element which is mainly dependent on production and productivity that gets most attention globally and also in Bangladesh. And even within that it is crops, more particularly, cereal crops which have been researched most. Fisheries and livestock have received comparatively much more limited attention globally and also in Bangladesh.

Given the above caveat, what has been generally concluded in AR5 is that the changes in yield due to climatic anomalies are negative for rice and more definitively for wheat and maize. Furthermore, rainfall anomalies create additional problems with yield. In cases where adaptation occurs, the benefits in case of rice may be 15-18% of the current yield, but less so in case of wheat and maize.

Bangladesh literature appears more specific in this respect in that Transplanted Aman appears to be affected adversely due to either or both of temperature rise and rainfall anomalies. Similarly, it has been estimated that drought could have a major devastating effect leading to up to 40% reduction in rice yield by 2050. Salinity rise (an effect of sea level rise) also will invariably lower yield of various crops.

In case of fisheries, a major loss might be that of Hilsha, the most popular and most abundant fish (in terms of catch) and source of nutrition for the poor and rich alike. By 2060, the catch may fall anywhere between 25-95%.

Second, all the broad elements of FNS have as background factors many issues which may be either climatic or non-climatic in nature. And more often than not these interact with each other. Unfortunately, the nature and strength of these interactions have not been properly understood yet either internationally or in Bangladesh because of limited coordination across disciplines.

AR5 and Other Findings

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Third, given these caveats, that climate and climate change do impact upon production capability of agriculture have been unmistakable, yet, the relationships are not always very clear or stable, particularly in case of Bangladesh.

Fourth, several climatic influences are disturbing for the nutrition security. Studies including those cited by AR5 do confirm that the nutritional quality of plant food generally falls, both protein and micronutrient contents are known to be reduced either under the influence of temperature or carbon fertilization while in some case natural toxins may form. Post AR5 literature confirms that zinc content of wheat may fall by nearly 10% while for rice it is much less about 4%. But iron content may fall in similar degrees, up to 6% or so in case of both. Also, given that rice is a major source of protein in Bangladesh, more worrying is the possible reduction in protein content in case of rice of up to 8-9% which is higher than those for all other crops. However, so far there seems to be limited or no definitive studies in Bangladesh validating or addressing these issues.

Fifth, extreme climatic shocks such as severe floods, drought, cyclonic storms surges as well as those related to climate change such as virulence of pest and disease attacks do not seem to be clearly focused yet systematically but are known anecdotecally to be highly disruptive of the food production system and threaten FNS. The literature in Bangladesh on the adverse effects of these climatic phenomenon are more or less well-known and also been evident from the literature discussed here. Particularly it is the women and children who suffer most in such situations as recently documented quite rigorously in Bangladesh.

Sixth, women's agency and empowerment are critical factors in ensuring the FNS. Given a few exceptions in terms of public programmes, there is little way to reach women in general and women farmers in particular for enhancing their resilience to adverse climatic influences and shocks.

Seventh, globally there are good examples of interventions to increase resilience or reducing vulnerability after major climatic shocks which may be contextualized for Bangladesh. On the other hand, there are successful examples in the country of programmes which ensure FNS for the women and children in a sustainable manner. These may be emulated.

The situation as described calls for actions on many fronts. The first and foremost is that the country must raise awareness of high level policy makers which we believe is still limited. This should apply most immediately for highly climate sensitive sectors and related policies and agencies such as water, agriculture, fisheries and livestock, forestry, health and nutrition, livelihood and employment, disaster and ministries concerned. The awareness

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Recommendations

Agency (of an individual or group) may be conceptualized as the capability to make choices towards desired outcomes/ 1

must percolate down to the ground level administration, particularly in geographical areas that are prone to drought, flooding and salinity ingress.

Second, capacity-building must get priority in all relevant sectors for planning, programming, project formulation and implementation. In this regard the framework of Institutional Assessment of Capacity initially developed by World Resources Institute and now gaining currency in many developing countries may provide a workable guideline.

A successful FNS outcome necessitates coordinated attention to what happens to water, health services, inputs market access and their dimensions and appropriate policy actions. While one programme may not cover all essential aspects, there should be programmes to complement each other.

One major issue is protecting livelihood in general and consequently ensure food security during extreme events, in particular. Here it appears that the experience of household economy model in Southern Africa as well as the Standard Order on Disaster (SoD) in Bangladesh including those of the Government programme called Ekti Bari, Ekti Khamar may need to be blended together.

In ensuring FNS to the poor and marginalized sections in society, certain core activities based on the experiences of several relevant programmes such as NNS (of World Bank) and Shouhardo (under CARE) may be designed. To be very specific one core objective must be 100% guarantee of 1000 days of nutrition for children up to 2 years. There must be a proper monitoring system in place when such programmes are undertaken. This should be considered as a lighthouse programme.

One major area of intervention must be generation of new knowledge. The interventions must be science and evidence based but in many cases despite improvements over the past, we still have insufficient scientific knowledge in critical areas. Two specific actions are recommended.

Several critical areas must receive scientific attention immediately which include among others development of bio-fortified and stress-tolerant varieties, and climate-resilient cropping and farming systems including for non-cereal and home gardening crops as well as non-crop food from inland fisheries and mixed crop-livestock systems. For this to happen the research system as well as the extension system must be further strengthened and given new directions for action.

Secondly, there must be a coordinated, integrated effort and mainstreaming of the climate interventions in all relevant sectors as a manifestation of a new type of development challenge. It requires new type of thinking including piloting based on such exercises backed by relevant research, monitoring and evaluations of experiences of relevant interventions, rather than adhering to a silo mentality as had been the practice almost everywhere in the world as well as in Bangladesh so far. For this to happen, policy

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makers must be properly sensitized to the relevant issues. Furthermore, it must be pointed out that as many factors and issues are involved, there may be several entry points for any interventions but not all will be practical, nor cost-effective, yet whatever are undertaken must have synergy with each other. Interventions with similar objectives must be coordinated properly with each other.

Finally, one should remember that children's nutrition as well as the over-all nutrition of the whole family depends critically on women. Women's empowerment is an essential ingredient in this process. While access to productive resources by women should be the ultimate goal for ensuring empowerment of women, the other immediate essential component of empowerment is education. One area is of course nutrition-related education and awareness. But more importantly, we believe that the children of the poorest must be in schools if the vicious cycle of intergeneration propagation of food and nutrition insecurity is to be broken. And it would be good to keep in mind that world-wide evidence suggests that women's education up to a minimum of secondary level may unlock the key to the advancement of a family. In designing such programmes, possibly the West Bengal's Kanyashree project along with similar programes in Bangladesh may be examined for their applicability.

Based on these general recommendations, future interventions may wish to examine several of them for support. One would be for scientific research as well as evaluations of several flagship programmes in the country and elsewhere for investment in a better designed intervention to support women's agency and empowerment and thereby ensure their and children's food and nutrition security. It may also support the institution of a kind of response mechanism for FNS under a situation of extreme climatic shocks modeled on the basis of good practices elsewhere as well as in this county, again keeping in mind the vulnerability of women in such situation as well as them as the well-spring of strength in such dire times.

Chapter-1INTRODUCTION

1.1 The Context

Agriculture in Bangladesh has seen great changes over the last three decades and a half. Its share in GDP has fallen drastically but it has managed to produce increasingly more food so that the country can be said to be more or less self-sufficient in aggregate. On the other hand, just about one-half of all employed persons are still engaged in agriculture. But its future is not certain as it still faces many challenges now and in the years to come.

Agriculture in Bangladesh, apart from other natural factors is dependent very much on climatic conditions including atmospheric temperature and precipitation and their patterns between and within years and also on the climatic natural hazards such as floods, drought and cyclonic storm surges as well as climate-induced events such as salinity ingress. The climate pattern had previously been somewhat predictable and so farmers knew exactly when they should till the land, when to sow the crop, when the crop would ripen and be ready for harvest. True every year did not see the exact patterns, there were variations in temperature and rainfall, but these were within tolerable limits in most cases.

Climate has started to change and the changes are expected to be more severe in future. The signatures of these climatic anomalies may vary by region but one aspect is definitive which is a trend rise in atmospheric temperature although year to year and season to season variability may also increase. For precipitation, on the other hand there is no definitive pattern. Not only there may be year to year and season to season variability, there may be no definitive geographic pattern either and nor any definitive upward or downward trend. As rainfall is the ultimate source of water, the combined effect of temperature and rainfall anomalies may become quite unsettling for agriculture in general and crop agriculture in particular. As agricultural production becomes uncertain, so will food availability and food security with dangerous consequences for people's livelihood and physical existence, particularly in agriculture-dependent and low-income countries. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fifth Report (AR5) has deliberated on these issues and given dire warning regarding the shape of things to come

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Of course this does not mean that every household or individual within a household is self-sufficient in food. Inter and intra-household equity in access to food are as important as aggregate food self-sufficiency.

Porter, J.R., L. Xie, A.J. Challinor, K. Cochrane, S.M. Howden, M.M. Iqbal, D.B. Lobell, and M.I. Travasso, 2014:Food security and food production systems. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea,T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken,P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom andNew York, NY, USA, pp. 485-533.

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unless redress measures are undertaken right now. In the light of the analyses of the probable impacts of climate change and climate variability on agricultural crop production, it is of paramount importance to find suitable adaptation strategies and programmes and projects to deal with the evolving situation. For this, the global picture that the AR5 has projected needs to be contextualised. This report makes a modest effort to that end.

The objective of this study is toi) Analyse and document the impact of climate variability on major crop

production systems that affect food and nutrition security in Bangladesh ii) Identify policy options and actions to be taken by the country to address the

predictions of IPCC's AR5 on food security and nutritionUnder the over-all objectives, the study provides knowledge, and expects to create awareness among the policy makers and relevant stakeholders and provide them with sufficient knowledge on:

· How food security and nutrition may be impacted by climate change and related climate variability;

· How to address the country's vulnerability of food security and nutrition due to climate change impacts;

· Policy level awareness to address the issues of food security and nutrition due to adverse impacts of climate change; and

· Improved understanding of all relevant stakeholders including the government, development partners NGOs, Civil Society Organization and expert groups.

The study is national in scope and has the IPCC AR5 report on impact of climate change on agriculture, as the main global framework. The study attempts to contextualise the relevant AR5 analysis in case of Bangladesh. Based on an understanding of the present food security and nutrition condition in the country as related to agricultural production it then examines the probable impact that climate change and variability may have in the country on future food security and nutrition.

The present study report has been commissioned by the European Union which has a major stake in improving the food and nutrition situation in the world in general. It operates in Bangladesh a Multi-Annual Indicative Programme (MIP) which is expected to run up to 2020. It has three elements of focus one of them being Food and Nutrition Security. While the conventional elements of food security such as availability and access are emphasised special attention is to be paid to raising nutritional well-being particularly among the most disadvantaged including women and children (see Chapter II for a discussion of the components of food security). Given that climate change has been identified as a major challenge to development, EU considers that it is high time that the MIP be given new directions or be better tuned to address problems that may arise due to impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security including nutrition security. This study is expected to provide a beginning of activities towards that end.

1.2 Overall Objective

change and

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Before we proceed further, there is another issue, population growth, which should not be lost sight of while discussing food security. A rising population means higher demand for food over time. For example at the present rate of population growth of 1.2% per annum and with the present population being 160 mn, the projected population of Bangladesh will be over 190 mn by 2030. Quite obviously, population growth will continue to keep high pressure on food security. Furthermore the nature of food demand may also change more towards non-cereal food crops and non-crop foods of aquatic and livestock origin due to higher levels of urbanisation and income growth . However, these are demand side problems and while extremely important, the issue immediate attention is how to manage the supply of adequate and nutritious food under climate change.

The study is based by and large on secondary materials, their assessments and further analysis wherever possible. An attempt has been made to analyse afresh some available information for understanding the relationship between climate variables and crop (particularly rice) production. A third method is to elicit information based on face to face dialogues with various stakeholders. Given the above specific tasks and methods of investigation, the rest of this study is organised in the following manner (chapter and basic content):

Chapter II: Concept of Food Security and Its ComponentsThis chapter discusses and analyses the concept of food security as generally understood and assessed in AR5 in the context of climate change and variability. The actual results of the AR5 assessment are discussed later in Chapter V. This sets the tone of the later discussions and analyses including policy issues.

Chapter III: AR5 on Global Food Security and AgricultureThis chapter summarises AR5 information on impact of climate change on agriculture and assesses implications for Bangladesh in the later chapters on the basis of its findings along with those discussed and analysed in other chapters.

Chapter IV: Climate Variability, Climate Change and Related Physical Events in BangladeshAvailable temperature and rainfall variability have been discussed here. Information on natural hazards related to climate variability and climate change has also been provided.

Chapter V: Bangladesh Agriculture and Food Security Issues: The Present Situation This chapter discusses the natural, physical context of agriculture, cropping patterns, intensity and dominance of particular crops, nature and role of technological change,

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1.3 Method of Analysis

4 The income growth may come about as part of the general trend of rising current income as well as the change in population structure in favour of higher proportion of working age young people allowing the country to reap a potential demographic dividend. On a brief introduction to the issue of demographic dividend in developed and developing countries see Lee and Mason (2006).

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organisation of production including tenurial issues as well as agricultural labour including family and female labour. The discussion also includes the state of fisheries and livestock production and systems in the country. Finally, the implications of agricultural output changes on food security and nutrition has been assessed based on literature survey and the analyses in the foregoing.

Chapter VI: Climate Variability and Stress, Non-climatic Factors and Food and Nutrition Security

Chapter VII: Policies, Programmes, Interventions and Agenda for ActionThree interrelated issues have been examined in the light of the analyses and discussions in the foregoing chapters One is the (i) analysis and assessment of existing policies and practices, particularly the recent ones from the viewpoint of interactive nature of climate change, food and nutrition security and the level of awareness among policy-makers. This is followed by the (ii) assessment of various programmes and interventions that have been made for ensuring food and nutrition security by the Government as well as non-government organizations. Finally (iii) recommendations have been made for a future climate resilient, food secure and nutritionally adequate agriculture in Bangladesh. Recommendations are general but also been examined to in the context of redirection and/or fine tuning EU's MIP.

Chapter VIII: Summary and Concluding Remarks A summary and some concluding remarks are provided under this chapter.

The available global and Bangladesh-specific literature on interactions between climate variables and crop, fisheries and livestock output and their nutritional consequences have been reviewed in this chapter. Side by side wherever relevant the non-climatic factors which may be important in these cases are also reviewed. Furthermore, we have drawn attention to very recent econometric analysis that has been made for identifying the possible relationships between climatic and other variables and rice output changes over time in Bangladesh. The issues of temperature, rainfall anomalies and salinity changes have been particularly focused for their roles in influencing rice output over time. Such analyses have been supplemented by those based on available global and Bangladesh-specific literature for food security and nutritional implications for the future. Women and children's nutritional status and security as influenced by climate change have received particular focus.

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CONCEPT OF FOOD SECURITY ANDITS COMPONENTS

Chapter-2

2.1 Definition of Food Security

2.2 Broad Dimensions of Food Security

Food security has several dimensions apart from the generally understood one of enough availability of food. FAO conceptualised food security as a situation when "all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for a healthy and active life. " Thus both demand and supply side issues as well as the quality aspect enter any meaningful concept of food security and its operationalisation from which specific policy recommendations in any given country's context may follow. More specifically, food security may be understood basically through 3 lenses, availability of, access to and utilisation of food. In this section we shall try to clarify these issues .

2.2.1 What is Food?To understand how food security is determined or what factors influence it, we actually have to first define food. This may seem banal and obvious but in practice may not always be so. This is because in policy makers' minds in developing countries food is, more often than not, equated to staple food grain which in case of Bangladesh is rice. Note, however, that whenever food security (FS, for short) is mentioned, the issue of nutrition is now mentioned clearly. This means that food should mean a balanced diet composed of adequate nutrition. A balanced diet has to include cereals as well as protein rich food such as meat, eggs and milk, as well as fat through edible oil and vegetables including leafy and coloured vegetables and fruits for essential minerals and vitamins. In general, it will have to be wholesome and that implies it will have to be safe to eat.

Before one gets to the primary dimensions of FS, one other point needs to be mentioned. The FAO definition in the beginning of this section points to preferences of people which indicate among others cultural compatibility which mean that food must be culturally acceptable, not just anything edible .

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1 FAO (1996) Declaration on world food security. World Food Summit, FAO, Rome.Quite a few of the issues discussed in this report have been discussed and debated in the First International Conference on

Global Food Security held in late 2013 in Netherlands. See the relevant issue of the Global Food Security as well as the synthesis of the presentations in van Ittersam and Giller (2014).

Pig meat, for example, is not generally acceptable in this country except among a very small minority of people. So is beef generally unacceptable in Nepal or in most places in India and also among certain groups in this country. The issue of cultural compatibility was made clear when during the period of military dictatorship of Ayub Khan, there was an attempt to impose maize as a supplementary food in the then East Pakistan, it was rejected in a violent manner, with the politically charged slogan “Amra Banglaee Bhutta Khaina” (we Bengalees do not eat maize). Similar attempts in the past to popularize cassava failed miserably during early Pakistani rule. Other new aspects are also entering the issue of cultural compatibility or acceptance. These relate specifically to food from genetically modified plants or animals to which resistance in some countries is particularly fierce on grounds of perceived risk to human health as well as biodiversity.

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2.2.2 Elements of Food SecurityFood security (FS) is now understood to have 3 pillars, availability, access and utilisation (nutrition). Fig. 2.1 shows a highly schematic diagram of the various components and sub-components of FS. Note first the left-most box marked "Food Security". There are three arrows from 3 boxes to it. These are availability, access and utilisation (nutrition). Each may have several sub-components which in turn may be influenced by various factors that include climate and non-climate ones. In the discussion below from time to time reference shall be made to the diagram for clarifying these relationships. Note that some arrows are thicker than others which means that these relationships are in general stronger than others. Also in some cases, one finds arrows directly linking two boxes or through one or other boxes indicating that the former is a direct relationship while those passing through other boxes are indirect relationships.

Fig. 2.1 A Schematic Diagram of Relationship between Food Security and Its Climate and Non-climate Drivers

Note: The arrows indicate only the relationship while the thickness of arrows are only indicative of the major and primary relationships, not their numerical significance.

Source: Constructed by the consultant based on literature

Let us first examine the issue of availability in more detail. At this stage, we must warn the readers that the real world may be even more complex regarding who is food secure and who not and the background factors which may not only vary by country but may

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include many interactive issues including even foreign policy concerns. For a brief but illuminating discussion on these issues see Babu, Gajanan and Sannyal (2014) .

The two immediate sources of food availability are domestic production and imports. Domestic production is translated into availability mainly through three pathways. These are own consumption by food producers which is substantial in a semi-subsistence economy dominated by myriads of small and marginal farmers as in Bangladesh ; secondly through sales in the market for non-producers of food as well as those farmers who are net food buyers; and thirdly wastage in production, storage, transport and processing which of course exerts a negative influence on availability. In case of imports, only market sales and wastage are main factors in determining availability.

What is marketed from domestic production and imports (net of exports) determine the market availability. Given demand at any given time, availability determines the market price of the particular type of food which is important in determining access to food (see later).

Let us now go a step backward from the domestic production scene. At any given point in time and space, the kind of agriculture one finds is determined primarily by natural endowments of soil, relief, and climate. Soil and relief are given for a sufficiently long stretch of time while certain climate-influenced water management practices such as irrigation system and flood regulation measures may also be included here. The access to these resources by households including their quality influences the domestic capability to produce food and/or other output. If the natural resource base (land and water in particular) degrades substantially, the innate capacity for domestic production is compromised and the country may have to depend more on trade .

As opposed to the natural resource endowments or its quality which are given for the time being, climate or rather weather is, however, variable. Climate includes long term temperature and precipitation and their patterns. Precipitation particularly is important as it is the ultimate source of water which is absolutely essential for any agriculture. Climate change which is characterised so far by an upward trend in average temperature and instability of the pattern of precipitation affects yield of crops as well of other types of agriculture (in many cases lowering them as indicated by AR5) naturally influences domestic production. The impacts are unlikely to be similar across crop and non-crop agriculture and within crop agriculture different crops are impacted differently. These

8

9

10

2.3 Components of Availability

non-climatic factors or

23

8

9

10

Chapter 1: "Introduction to Food Security: Concepts and Measurement" in Babu, Suresh, S. N. Gajanan and Prabuddho Sanyal (2014).

This issue will be taken up later particularly when access to food by income-differentiated people are discussed.For an analysis and review of how this may happen as well as their economic impact, see Asaduzzaman (1997) and

Asaduzzaman (2002).

relationships are shown through arrows from the climate change box to Temperature and Rainfall anomaly box which is then linked to domestic production box.

There is another link from the climate change box to the domestic production box which runs through the natural hazards and sudden shocks box. These hazards and shocks include climate related events such as floods, drought, and storm surges along the coast. Sea level rise is also a hindrance to domestic production but is shown separately because of its slow on-set characteristics. But also note that there is an arrow from the sea level rise box to hazards box as the former influences storm surges. In any case, these shocks often do lower domestic production and sometime severely which reduces availability in general but also certain aspects of access as indicated later.

While these are direct results of natural disasters and sea level changes, there is another pathway of change which may be far more long-lasting and it occurs through the destruction of agricultural asset bases, both natural and manmade (FAO: 2015). Irrigation infrastructures may be destroyed, transport networks may break down and create problems of marketing and more importantly of food transport while degrading the soil of the regions affected. These will obviously have deleterious effects on the productivity and production of agriculture.

One aspect that often is referred to is the consequence of rising temperature and humidity (when this is the case) on frequency of occurrence and virulence of pathogens, pests and disease of crops or livestock and fisheries. The increased frequency and severity of such problems lead to lower level of output than would be the case in their absence. Thus, we have arrows from pest and pathogens box to domestic production box. Similar is the case with cropping pattern and agricultural system changes due to the changes in basic parameters under which agriculture operates again resulting in an arrow from the Cropping and Ag system change box to domestic production box. It would be instructive to discuss this in a little more detail as the issues relate also to non-climatic factors.

The domestic production capability given all other factors (climatic and non-climatic) may not change similarly across all crops or between crop and non-crop or between food crops and non-food crops or even between food staples and non-staple food crops. Whichever way it is looked at, the fact remains that the production of food staples as well of other crops may change leading to changes in its (staple) availability. This is indicated by the arrow from Cropping and Agriculture System Change to the domestic production box.

On the other hand, cultivation of more market-oriented crops like cash crops (whether food or not) because of market changes and changes in climatic conditions may raise the problems of food security not simply from the point of view of availability of food but also from that of access to it particularly as cash crops may mean better income prospects than before

24

leading to better economic access to food (see below) although with higher dependence on market . What the ultimate outcome would be becomes an empirical question.

Apart from the above non-climate factors, other such factors that determine domestic production are technology and the costs of inputs for using the technology. While technology changes over time through research and extension activities (see the relevant boxes and arrows), the available set of techniques is more or less fixed at a given time. Which technique to be used or in other words what combination of inputs to be employed for production then depend on the relative prices (costs) of the inputs. If any particular input such as fertiliser becomes relatively cheaper, farmers will try to use more of that compared to others. In general much actually depends on the over-all agricultural support that is publicly provided. We will come back to this issue in a moment.

Technology may change the process and level of inputs combination for producing a commodity. But how the technology itself changes depends on the capacity and efficiency of the National Agricultural Research System (NARS) as well as the capacity to reach the new technology effectively to the farmers through an efficient extension system. Both are also partly influenced by the budgetary resource allocated to the systems. For want of a better place to discuss the issue it should be pointed out here that technological change may have a longer term impact on prices through raising productivity of inputs, in fact cheapening the price of the commodity in question and thus improving access over time (see later).

The issue of globalisation and trade liberalization under the WTO rules provide guidelines regarding how much budgetary resources may be provided to support agriculture, by whom and for what purposes. For brevity we eschew this debate despite the importance of the present rules for countries such as Bangladesh . But a few points may be in order.

Very briefly any kind of support which may distort prices and thus trade (such as inputs subsidy) is allowed for developing countries only up to a limit, while for LDCs such as Bangladesh there is no such bar. Whether support is provided and in what form, therefore, have implications for inputs cost to be borne by farmers and consequently on their inputs use and output levels. Imports of food from developed countries likewise may change due to the changes in costs of production in those countries as well as the climate-related changes in production potentials and levels in these countries. Trade-based rules may also affect such food imports. The ultimate effects on the price level and access (see later) thus cannot be determined a priori.

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12

11

12

See "Chapter 3: Effects of Commercialization of Agriculture (Shift from Traditional Crop to Cash Crop) on Food Consumption and Nutrition—Application of Chi-Square Statistic" in Babu, Gajanana and Sanyal (2014) and references therein.

For an early estimate of the level of agricultural support under these boxes see Asaduzzaman (2001). For a GE analysis under differences in relative price changes, see Alam, M. J., et al, (2016)

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Prices are important from another point of view when domestic prices are compared to world prices. Trade liberalisation may raise welfare in general but movements in relative prices may impact upon and even negate the welfare effects of trade liberalisation (Alam et al: 2016).

Trade liberalization may have another pathway through Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) that may affect the choices available to farmers for cultivation . This may restrict the choices of crops to produce and adversely affect the availability through such restriction as the consumers' choice itself becomes limited. The issue of trade becomes important for food security because if the prospects for domestic production become increasingly uncertain or limited, volume of trade in food may become increasingly large. On the other hand this may also become problematic as experiences of say 2007-08 show when major rice exporting countries some time banned exports of various kinds of food, not only staples such as rice.

Before summing up it must be mentioned that many of the above issues of access to resources by households, the efficiency of production and technology choice, impacts of trade liberalisation - all will be influenced by the policy regimes, their interactions, coherence or lack. Hence without understanding at the macro level the issues of policy-making, policy actions and implementation, it may not be much useful to address the general problems of food security. For an analysis and assessment of such policies, the reader is referred to Chapter VII.

To sum up, availability is by and large determined by both capacity to produce food domestically and the capacity to import from abroad. However, both may be constrained by the similar sets of factors but the net effect may not always be obvious without rigorous empirical analysis.

Access to food is a major and necessary test of whether the FS has been achieved . It is influenced by a host of factors, depending on domestic policies as well as cultural factors. Climate change and variability and some of their manifestations through extreme natural events may particularly affect physical availability of food at a particular time or space and also for specific vulnerable groups. Furthermore, as domestic production is affected by climate change and variability it may also indirectly influence economic access through employment, income and prices. One particular aspect of access is its differentiation within a family mainly against women and children in many, particularly poor and paternalistic societies. Arrows culminating in the "Access" box in the diagram thus emanate from several sources as indicated in the diagram.

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14

2.4 Components of Access

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14

The TRIPS has remained a contentious issue because the clauses under it provides for plant breeders' right to the new hybrid or genetically modified crops which may be exercised either sui generis or through patenting or both.

During the last two famines in this part of the world, the 1942 famine and the 1974 famine both had been as Sen (1976; 1981) argued due to a failure of access through entitlement (i.e., employment and income) although in both years the over-all availability of food was more or less similar to other years during those periods.

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Economic accessibility basically means purchasing power through income and prices. How prices are formed partly due to availability in the short run has already been discussed. It is income, however, which determines if a given level of price can be borne by the consumer particularly without compromising the consumption of other non-food goods and services. Income, of course, depends on various factors but mainly through employment in economic activities resulting from access to natural resources (e.g., farming), capital or marketable skill (for service provision) as well as access to resources which may be rented out to others or receipts as transfers (public or private) from others. More broadly this necessitates an inclusive process of growth and development in which the most marginalised sections of society will benefit as do others. Here the roles of small holders in farming also have a major role to play (Ittersam and Giller: 2014).

Economic capability of a person or household provides the scope for having security of food. However, the essence of FS is reflected in the physical access to food. Physical access ensures that whether or not somebody is capable economically to purchase food or not, the person will have to have access to it physically. Thus, all disadvantaged groups in society (such as the physically and mentally challenged, people living on marginal lands or poor areas or involved in less productive occupations or are destitute or have suffered due to natural disasters when the normal transport and communication lines are inoperative) must have physical access to food to ensure their FS irrespective of their economic capability. Note the arrows from the “Physical access” box to some of the boxes to the right of it. Note that in some cases it is locational and seasonal availability of food which some time give rise to this physical aspect of access to food.

One particular aspect of physical access is intra-household distribution of food. Households may have access to food either through the economic or physical access route. This does not automatically translate into equitable distribution of food to all household members. Women and children generally get less compared to adult men even when women may themselves are employed or earning incomes. While there may be "valid" reasons behind such differential access such as that the male breadwinner must remain physically fit for others to have a limited access at times of limited availability, cultural factors may be more important than such reasons. Particularly pregnant and lactating women need, but usually do not get, more food, and more nutritious food compared to men because of such factors. However the literature the world wide is also replete with evidence that where women have resources either through economic activities and employment, transfers (allowances paid by state for one reason or another) and where they have control over it, whether or partial or full, i.e., they have better status and empowerment, they tend to get better share and children also do get more to eat and consume more calories . Because of these factors several arrows point to the “Intra- 15

15 See Zaman (2002) for a Bangladesh case study as well as an early literature review on these aspects. For some of the recent and broader studies see Smith, (2003), World Bank (2010), FAO (2011), Morrison, Raju and Sinha (2007), OECD (2012), UN (2012), and Glick (2002). For a contrary view, however, see Undurraga (undated). Note that the sample in the last mentioned study did not find much difference in relative status and empowerment of men and women which thus failed to get the usual results in cases where women's general status was lower or they were less empowered financially or otherwise.

27

household distribution” box from factors as stated herein while women and their status also point arrows to child and maternal nutrition.

Utilisation of food and its nutritional value are influenced by climatic as well as non-climatic factors. Nutritional quality and safety of food may be negatively impacted by climate change. There are apprehensions that climate change may lower the zinc and iron contents of wheat, rice and legumes . It is now known that certain food crops under changing temperature may form toxins while nutritional values of some of the crops may fall due to temperature rise. On the other hand if either availability or access fall due to climate change, the over-all nutritional status of the affected group of people may also register a decline due to lower than normal consumption of food itself. We thus find several arrows to the "Utilisation and Nutrition" box from several other boxes as described either directly or indirectly through others. For women and children this may also become a life-cycle problem.

The nature and source of nutrition may change if the cropping and agricultural system changes with change in the mix of food produced in the country. We thus have an arrow from the 'Crop and Agriculture System Change' box to the 'Nutrition' box.

One particular aspect is nutritional content of processed, particularly home-processed food in poor households who may not have enough access to energy for cooking. They may cook only once in a whole day and have to consume the same food without properly warming up for lack of cooking fuel. As ambient average temperature rises due to climate change, the food in such a situation may either get spoiled or its nutritional quality may deteriorate due to bacterial actions or other similar factors. Even if the quantity of food is adequate, its degraded quality may not allow enough nutrition to be obtained from the food and in fact may lead to health problems such as gastro-enteritis. Of the several arrows pointing to the box called "Nutritional quality and safety of food", two points are now worthy of mention.

When one discusses safety of food, there are all kinds of other issues particularly willful adulteration and use of harmful chemicals. This itself is a huge set of issues and we do not intend to get into this discourse in detail although it may be that certain aspects of it such as excessive use of pesticides may have to do with increasing and more virulent pest infestation and pathogen attack in crops and also in case of livestock and fisheries due to climatic change and associated phenomenon.

2.5 Components of Utilisation and Nutrition

16

17

16

17Elbehri, Elliott and Wheeler (2015).For a recent analysis of food safety issues in the context of Bangladesh see Asaduzzaman et al (2014).

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The final issue we want to discuss is the consequence of limited access to food, particularly of nutritious food to pregnant and lactating mothers as well as children in their infancy. Limited maternal nutrition and to children up to two years after birth is known to have major adverse health outcomes over the life cycle . This has to do with all issues related to intra-household distribution of food but also climatic factors that limit the availability of and access to food for women and children and more so during natural disasters caused due to climate change. Note however that the nutritional outcome for children and women are not determined by these factors alone. There are many other issues that need to be considered which will be discussed later in this chapter.

We have separately shown wastage of food to occur in two places in the diagram. Wastage occurs during food production, harvesting and initial processing and storage as well as due to pest and pathogen attacks. This is thought to be a major problem in some countries and limiting it may allow the over-all availability to improve .

There is also wastage in consumption. It happens in two ways. One is the characteristics of affluent societies where a lot of food is simply thrown away (Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change: 2012). If such wastage is reduced, it may allow much higher availability for all. The second wastage is that in nutrition which again may happen in two ways. If there are certain nutritional deficiencies, the nutrition from other food may not be properly utilised by the body. The second type of wastage in consumption occurs due to a rise in ambient average temperature which degrade quality of food.

Sometime a fourth element of food security is mentioned. This is stability of availability and access. This issue of stability of availability and access are actually aspects of the two broader types of shocks, one climate-induced (affecting physical availability and access) and the other further translating itself into economic shocks of access although non-climate factors are also responsible as indicated earlier. Hence we do not examine them separately from the view point of availability or access.

2.7.1 Relationship of nutrition to climatic factorsWomen and children issues in nutrition have already been very briefly indicated in the section on food utilization and nutrition. While this is important and that a main set of issues relate to intra-household dynamics, in fact these go beyond that to other elements of

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2.6 Wastage of Food and Stability of Availability and Access

2.7 Women and Children Issues in Food Security and Nutrition

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18

19

See Asaduzzaman (2010a) for a review of the issues and references therein, in particular, Victora et al (2008); Victora et al (2010), and Osmani and Sen (2003).

See Babu, Gajanan and Sanyal (2014), "Chapter 2: Implications of Technological Change, Post-Harvest Technology, and Technology Adoption for Improved Food Security—Application of t-Statistic" section on Post-harvest technology and the references therein for understanding the implications of food grain storage issues and their implications for availability.

food security i.e., availability to and access by women and consequently for children as well as a host of other factors. Availability is determined to a considerable extent from domestic production where women have a role to play and as we shall see later in Chapter III, sometime it is substantial. This has implications for their employment and income in general and from agriculture in particular. All of these are likely to be impacted and adversely by climate change (Elbehri, Elliott and Wheeler: 2015) restricting women's access to food and correspondingly also to children.

Note that home gardening is often a major source of food and nutrition for rural households and is generally tended by women. The output is often to quite an extent directly consumed in the household, particularly poorer ones among them. How vegetables in home gardens may be affected by climate change is, however, largely unknown. In any case, the availability and access are therefore also likely to have certain genderdifferentiated implications for food security and naturally also for children. Thus, an inter-generational nutrition factor also enters into the picture. Given that Bangladesh has advanced quite some way towards improving child nutrition and to an extent maternal nutrition, the question naturally arises if climate change is going to disrupt the advancement and if it does, what needs to be done to avert such a possibility and how.

2.7.2 A conceptual framework for nutritional outcomesA widely accepted conceptual framework for nutritional outcome is given in Fig. 2.2 below. Note that it includes the issues of agriculture and food security as well as the two elements of availability and access. The other issues are mainly of intervention types. Some of these, particularly health interventions, may be influenced by climate change and climatic factors, and climate-induced issues like disease prevalence and extent and quality of public health services such as water and sanitation.

A plethora of issues are involved in understanding FNS and for taking appropriate policy actions. There are climate related factors, directly and indirectly involved in this (FNS). There are also non-climate factors which ultimately impinge on the same broad dimensions of FNS and thus policy action can not be taken in isolation of each other. Furthermore, the food security in all its aspects may also need to be looked through a gendered lens for a clearer picture of differentiated or “divided homes” .

2.8 A Summing Up

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20 See Dwyer and Bruce (1988).

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Fig. 2.2 A Conceptual Framework for Nutritional Outcome

Source: Gillespie et al 2014, based on the 1990 UNICEF Conceptual Fraemwork (As reported in Hussain, Talukder and Ahmed (2015))

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Food security, including availability,

economic access and use of food

Feeding and caregiving resources (maternal, household

and community levels)

Access to and use of health services, a safe and hygienic

environment

Benefits during the life course

Optimum fetal and child nutrition and development Nutrition sensitive programmes and approaches! Agriculture and food

security! Social safety nets! Early child development! Material mental health! Women's empowerment! Child protection! Classroom education! Water and Sanitation! Health and family

planning services

Building and enabling environment! Rigorous evaluations! Advocacy Strategies! Horizontal and vertical

coordination! Accountability,

incentives regulation, legislation

! Leadership programmes! Capacity investments! Domestic resource

mobilisation

Nutrition specific interventions and programmes! Adolescent health and

preconception nutrition

! Maternal dietary supplementation

! Micronutrient supplementation or fortification

! Breastfeeding and complementary feeding

! Dietary supplementation for children

! Dietary diversification! Feeding behaviours

and stimulation! Treatment of severe

acute malnutrition! Disease prevention

and management! Nutrition interventions

in emergencies

Knowledge and evidencePolitics and governance

Leadership, capacity and financial resourcesSocial, economic, political and environmental context (national and global)

Breastfeeding nutrient rich foods and eating

routine

Feeding and caregiving practices, parenting stimulation

Low burden of infectious diseases

Morbidity and mortality in childhood

Cognitive, motor, socioemotional development

School performance and learning capacity

Adult stature

Obesity and NCDs

Work capacity and productivity

Chapter-3

CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND

RELATED PHYSICAL EVENTSIN BANGLADESH

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Temperature

3.3 Rainfall

In this chapter we briefly review the climatic situation in Bangladesh and also discuss the related climatic hazards which affect agriculture and ultimately food and nutrition security in the country. This is followed by a summary view of the projected climate change in the country.

The annual mean temperatures for the period 1948-2010 show considerable year to year fluctuation but also an over-all general upward trend particularly for later years. One finds a

0roughly 1 C rise over these years. The average annual temperature shows seasonal 0variation, sometime considerable ones. Against an average upward trend of about 1 C the

largest anomaly was found to be for the pre-monsoon period of March-April or so which 0was more than 3 C.

For the pre-monsoon to post-monsoon months from April to November, all the months have witnessed sharper temperature rise over the years 1980-2010 compared to the whole period of 1948-2010, the sharpest rise being for the pre-monsoon moths of April and May.

Naturally, the general average trend have not been repeated for all locations of the country. Of 20 stations from which data have been analysed indicate that in 18 of the cases the rising trend was observed, but only roughly one half of them were statistically significant, the rest were not.

Average maximum and minimum temperatures showed trends similar to the average one. But the trend is more clearly discernible for the average minimum.

For precipitation there is hardly any trend. But there is very substantial year to year, season to season variation. It shows wide fluctuations devoid of any trend (Fig. 3.1).

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21 The discussion in this sub-section and the next two draws heavily from Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) (2012).

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Fig. 3.1 Average Critical Period Rainfall (1960-2010)

Source: IWFM (2012)

Of late, some concern has been expressed in the media regarding falling rains in several parts of the country which are judged to be major food grain as well as vegetable production areas. While the concerns were well-expressed the statistical basis was not clear cut. So we re-analysed the annual rainfall data (season-specific data was not available) for the 10 years reported by BBS in its Agricultural Statistical Year Book 2013 for some of the stations. The graph of the year to year recorded precipitation is shown in Fig. 3.2.

Fig. 3.2 Recent Trends in Annual Rainfall (mm) in Selected Stations

Source: Based on Author's own estimates

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450

300

150

01960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Criti

cal P

erio

d Ra

in (m

m)

Except in two or three stations, there seems to be an unmistakable downward trend in annual rainfall everywhere. In 11 out of 12 stations the precipitation level had been falling but only strongly in 5 cases, weakly in 2 cases and not statistically significantly in the rest 5 cases. These mean that there is a cause for concern, in some areas at least, and for proper policy response, one needs to keep an open eye regarding how things are changing climate-wise and if farmers' behaviours are changing in response and in what direction.

Sun shine hours is a major determinant of the crop cycle. In the last 50 years the average sunshine hours appear to have fallen by an average of a minimum of 1 hour and sometime up to 2 hours.

Salinity has made continuous ingress in the coastal region. As Fig 3.3 shows, area under high to severe salinity has spread over 1973-2009. Similar views have been expressed by households in a recently studied area in the South-western Bangladesh (Rabbani, Rahman and Mainuddin, 2013).

Fig. 3.3 Salinity Changes Over Time

Note: Salinity classes are - S1 (Very slight): 2-4 ds/M; S2 (Slight): 4.1-8 ds/M; S3+S4 (High): 8.1-16 ds/M; S5 (Severe): 16+ ds/M

Source: Based on data from SRDI (2012)

3.4 Sunshine hours

3.5 Salinity

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3.6 Natural Hazards

3.7 Climate Change Projections

The country is normally ravaged by several natural hazards from time to time and these lead to major losses to the economy apart from immediate hardship and also loss of life. Over more than a century, there had been more than 80 instances of flood, 7 instances of severe drought, 17 instances of major cold wave and 85 tropical cyclones.

Floods are a normal event. In any given year at least some 20-25% of the area of the country may go under water. Also, severe floods may occur from time to time. In 1988, for example, just about two-thirds of the country was under water for an extended period. Floods are so common that the land mass of the country has been categorised according to their proneness to inundation. And of course, not all areas are equally vulnerable.

Droughts may occur in any year in any area. But generally it is the north-western part of the country which is more vulnerable than others. Very roughly, 40 percent of the area under north-western Bangladesh is free of drought risk while another 30 percent or more is prone to moderate drought risks. The rest, just about 31 percent, has severe to extreme risk of drought. Drought usually becomes more frequent and also more severe during the pre-monsoon months of March, April and May.

Cyclonic storms are also quite common and almost every year one or other storm may hit although severity may differ from one year to another. The cyclone Sidr in 2007 was one of the most powerful in living memory and wrought heavy damages to the economy and livelihood of the people.

The losses of life and economic damage inflicted due to these natural hazards are enormous. The last top damaging events had resulted in the following estimated losses- floods: US$ 10.4 bn; storm surges: US$ 4 bn. The losses due to drought remains to be properly estimated.

3.7.1 Temperature projectionsThe projected changes for the years 2030 and 2050 for both maximum and minimum temperatures are shown in Table 3.1.The figures are by basic hydro-agro-ecological zones for Bangladesh. The figures clearly indicate that maximum temperature for all regions will rise for the winter months of December, January and February while historically it was for

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Murad and Islam (2011)EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussesl -

Belgium.This section is based upon the findings of the CEGIS (2016).

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the pre-monsoon months of March, April and May for which there appears to be little change. Minimum temperatures on the other hand indicate a rise for all the months in general which is consistent with historical trends.

3.7.2 Precipitation projections The projected rainfall changes suffer from a lot of uncertainties. Yet for whatever these are worth, the analysis indicates that winter and pre-winter months everywhere will be wetter both by 2030 and 2050. Some regions will be wetter than others. Also note that some regions will exhibit falling rainfall as has already been experienced in some places.

Table 3.1 Projected Temperature Changes for 2030 and 2050 in Bangladesh

Source: CEGIS (2016)Note: DJF: December-February; MAM: March-May; JJAS: June-September; ON: October-November

NW: North-west; NC: North-central; NE: North-east; SW: South-west; Sc: South-central; SE: South-east; EH: Eastern highlands

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Region Seasonal Average Seasonal Average Temperature Temperature Temperature Temperature

o o o ochange ( C) change ( C) change ( C) change ( C) for 2030 for 2030 for 2050 for 2050

DJF MAM JJAS ON DJF MAM JJAS ONoMaximum Temperature ( C)

NW 1.5 -0.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 2.3 0.6 1.9 1.9 1.7NC 1.4 -0.3 1.3 1.0 0.9 2.3 0.5 1.9 1.6 1.6NE 1.4 0.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 2.2 0.5 1.9 1.6 1.6SW 1.2 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 2.2 0.9 1.6 1.2 1.5SC 1.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.5SE 1.2 -0.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 2.1 0.6 1.7 1.3 1.4EH 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.6 0.9 1.5 1.2 1.4

oMinimum Temperature ( C)NW 1.4 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.1 2.3 1.3 1.7 2.3 1.9NC 1.5 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.1 2.4 1.2 1.7 2.3 1.8NE 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.3 2.4 1.2 1.8 2.4 1.9SW 1.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 2.4 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.8SC 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7SE 1.4 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.1 2.4 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.8EH 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 2.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8

Table 3.2 Projected Precipitation Changes for 2030 and 2050 in Bangladesh

Source: CEGIS (2016)Note: See Table 4.1

3.7.3 A SummaryBased on the official record of meteorological data, over the last 6 decades or so, Bangladesh experienced considerable year to year fluctuation but on the whole an average upward trend in temperature. The pre-monsoon temperature had shown the largest

0anomaly of 3 C. The upward trend appears to have become sharper in more recent 4 decades or so and more so for pre-monsoon months making them hotter over years.

For rainfall there is hardly any upward trend but substantial year to year variation. There also appears to be some basis for concluding that for more recent years there is an unmistakable trend downward at least for some of the weather stations. While the data series is quite short for some of the stations the downward trend is statistically significant.

Sun shine hours is a major determinant of the crop cycle. In the last 50 years, the average sunshine hours appeared to have fallen by an average of a minimum of 1 hour and sometimes by up to 2 hours.

Climate related hazards remain a major worry. Over more than a century, there had been more than 80 instances of flood, seven instances of severe drought, 17 instances of major cold wave and 85 tropical cyclones

The future temperature projections indicate that the rise in temperature for average maximum will be far more pronounced for the cooler winter months than for the generally hotter pre-monsoon months indicating longer spells of warm weather. Rainfall projections indicate far more uncertainties than temperature but in general the future years will be wetter than at present. Yet, some regions will exhibit downward trends in precipitation.

Region Seasonal Annual Seasonal Annual Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall

change (%) change for change (%) change for for 2030 2030 (%) for 2050 2050 (%)

DJF MAM JJAS ON DJF MAM JJAS ONNW 134.0 19.9 -6.1 116.1 -0.1 119.3 -18.6 5.6 28.8 4.5NC 107.6 34.1 14.8 47.7 19.0 31.2 -5.1 20.6 12.6 16.9NE 32.0 7.1 15.0 8.1 13.1 12.1 -0.9 17.9 9.8 13.2SW 68.8 11.9 1.4 76.4 6.0 58.2 -20.3 0.7 -7.8 -1.5SC -6.7 15.7 3.4 45.4 6.3 0.2 -1.5 -2.1 -11.4 -2.5SE -5.1 26.6 10.9 6.6 12.3 7.2 9.6 5.0 0.6 5.4EH -32.9 -20.1 1.8 -35.4 -2.8 45.0 2.2 -1.3 -33.7 -1.6

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Chapter-4

AR5 ON GLOBAL FOOD SECURITYAND AGRICULTURE

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Definition of Food Security

4.3 Drivers of Food Security

The IPCC's AR5 in its Chapter 7 has elaborately discussed food security and climate change and related issues. A substantial body of literature has been examined, their implications analysed and conclusions drawn for future work including recommendations. The discussion has been made around several themes, such as definition of food security and its drivers followed by an extensive discussion on the drivers, both climatic and non-climatic. Subsequently, the analyses focused on what had been known regarding climatic influence on crop and non-crop food production and their quality and the how the future might be expected based on these observed relationships. It might be noted that while presenting these findings we have also from time to time tried to draw their implications or shortcomings very briefly for clearer understanding of the issues.

The three main aspects of food security include, availability, access and utilisation as mentioned in Chapter II earlier and also so phrased in AR5. For availability, the nearest it has come to is the aspects of production. For access it has initially mentioned poverty (euphemism for lack of income or purchasing power) as a root cause as well as high or volatile prices. Nutritional issues as an element of food security has been mentioned. It also includes stability which may be separately discussed but is in effect as aspect of availability (output losses) or access as reflected in price spikes or variability. That is why in Chapter II we did not discuss this separately. However, it may be easier for policy makers to treat this separately for policy action and we will try to do so as and when so warranted.

The drivers of food security may be both climatic and non-climatic. Climate factors include temperature and rainfall as well as carbon di-oxide and ozone in atmosphere but should also include those natural hazards related to climate such as floods, drought, cyclonic storm surges and salinity ingress due to sea level rise. Non-climate factors are many and probably are at least as important as climate factors.

Climate factors influence all four (i.e., 3 usual ones and stability) aspects of food security. The generally adverse impacts of climate change on food and agricultural production immediately affects availability while access is restricted both physically as output falls and also though price mechanism as prices may rise and lower the purchasing power particularly of the poor. But more particularly climate related natural hazards may

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suddenly lower output in any given time period and push up and destabilise prices. If agricultural output generally falls this may also lower incomes of particular groups such as farmers, agricultural labourers and those employed in ancillary activities of marketing and trade and thus lower their purchasing power limiting access to food. This may also have adverse impacts on intra-household distribution of food to particularly vulnerable ones, the old, the infirm, children and women. The issue of children has been mentioned while discussing some of the studies. But the intra-household issues have not been mentioned clearly possibly because this is not unique to climate change impacts but that climate change may accentuate the already present tendencies.

The safety and nutrition aspects of food security may be compromised in more than one way due to climate change. In some cases, natural toxins may form in certain food crops making them unsafe to consume. More importantly, it may not be possible or profitable to grow crops with better nutrition due to cropping pattern changes as a response to climate change by farmers. Furthermore, lower availability and consumption of food may compromise over-all nutritional intake. Then again if children are deprived of proper nutrition along with their mothers during early period of life (up to 3 years from conception to 2 years after birth), the so called 1000 days of opportunity, they become prone to various diseases later in life (see Chapter II for reference). The interactions between food security on one hand and the climate and non-climate factors on the other are thus quite complex and sometime played out over life time. This inter-generational aspect does not appear to have been mentioned in the AR5, at least not explicitly.

We first provide a highly summarised view of what AR 5 has given attention to under the rubric of FS, particularly the drivers and how these are linked to 4 basic elements of FS and what evidence exists on them. This is followed by a review of analyses of what is known about the elements of the food system or rather elements of food security as these have been influenced so far by climatic and related events as well as non-climatic factors. This in sequence is followed by what might lie in store under projected climate change.

4.4.1 Impact on food production systemsNon-climate drivers are stated to be quantitatively not very precise and in any case there appears to be problem of a clear baseline without climate change. Management changes in agriculture have further complicated the issues. Given such problems in general there is agreement that wheat and maize production may have been negatively impacted due to observed climate changes, but less so in case of rice. Impacts of extreme climatic events are

4.4 Summary of AR 5 Review of Present Evidence on Food Security Drivers and Their Linkages

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less clearly understood although continued adverse impacts of temperature extremes are documented particularly in case of rice. Whatever impacts are observed, its attribution to anthropogenic influences on the climate system is not clear. Carbon enrichment of atmosphere in general is positive on crop yields but not always so and may also be injurious above certain thresholds for some crops.

Food prices and their volatility as well as their relationship to global trade has been mentioned. So are the domestic policy responses without getting into any detail. In any case studies linking prices to supply responses in the context of climate trends are either rare or comparatively old failing to account for recent trends in prices (including the 2007/08 price shocks).

4.4.2 Methodological issuesAnalyses and interpretation of data posed quite some problem in several cases. As a result, there had been attempts at improvements in methodology and corresponding use of data sets at farm, region and country levels. Statistical models have been used much more often than before although not all aspects of climate change and its elements such as carbon concentration have received attention. Important broader issues of water availability or its utilisation across sectors, have also often been not clearly focused. It is not surprising therefore that the basic findings of such analyses seem to be that the "correlation between climate or associated indices and yield are not always statistically significant". All these mean that there are certain uncertainties in the interpretations and the implications of the data that have been analysed.

In case of fisheries and livestock and more particularly for fisheries there are problems of difficulties in controlled experiments and therefore much of the findings also have to be carefully understood before drawing any analytical or policy conclusions.

4.4.3 Crop production sensitivity to weather and other related variables There are many unknowns in the processes of impact of temperature. Yet, there is high

0confidence and high agreement that above 30-34 C, temperature has a negative effect on yield although it is likely to be crop and region-specific because of differences in benchmark agro-ecological and agronomic conditions. Thus, while rice yield is generally negatively impacted due to higher temperature, the actual result also depends on the stretch of time of the persistence of the high temperature. Evidence also suggests that the existence of irrigation facilities may dampen any negative effect of lack of rains or its instability. But if protracted rainfall instability occurs, how can irrigation may help (as the water for irrigation also in final analysis comes from rainfall) does not seem to have been addressed.

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25 AR5, Chapter 7, p. 496.

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0Generally, meta-analysis of studies indicate that local temperature going up by 1-2 C locally in the tropics (such as Bangladesh) lowers yield of wheat and maize. This corroborates earlier findings in this regard that even a small increase in the tropics in temperature may have negative yield effects if local temperature goes up beyond 3 degrees Celsius (see Fig. 4.1 reproduced from AR5)

The increased concentrations of carbon di-oxide and of ozone, although thought to affect crop productivity are not yet well-researched or understood. Post-AR4 literature, however indicate that concentration of ozone affects yield of wheat negatively up to 15% and of maize up to 5-6%.

Higher temperature along with rainfall anomalies may lead to changes in present distribution of pests, weeds and diseases spatially and temporally. But rigorous analyses are still lacking.

Fig. 4.1 Projected Yield Effects on Selected Crops of Rising temperature

Note: Red lines: without adaptation; blue lines: with adaptationSource AR5, Fiugre-7-4, p.498

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4.4.4 Fisheries and livestock productivityGlobally marine fisheries accounted for a total of 95.5 mn mt (64% of total fisheries output) and inland fisheries 52.9 mn mt (36%). Of the global literature on fisheries, unsurprisingly, much is actually on marine fisheries and pertain to the North-Atlantic fisheries. There is comparatively much less on inland and fresh water riverine and wet land fisheries which is dominant in Bangladesh.

Definitive studies are as yet limited at best. But this much is known that the stresses to which the fisheries have to go through such as increasing ocean acidification due to dissolved carbon di-oxide in water (harmful to shell-fishes), elevated temperature levels, hypoxia (lack of dissolved oxygen) are expected to influence the distribution and productivity of marine as well as fresh water fisheries (except for acidification).

As observed by AR5, based on FAO information, the influence of climatic changes on fisheries and aquaculture is expected to be felt on food security along all the 4 dimensions of it. Availability and access may be restricted while nutrition and utilisation are expected to influenced due to changes in species distribution and their catch. Stability may be affected due to extreme weather events such as major cyclonic storms and major floods which are important in case of Bangladesh.

There is a real dearth of published literature related to climatic impacts on livestock economy and its output including related issues. AR5 therefore has been able to say very little on these aspects of food production.

4.4.5 Access, utilisation and stability aspects of food security The negative impact of climate change on food productivity is expected to directly restrict physical and indirectly economic access through rising prices and lowering income of food producers. These latter indirect pathways have been explored in AR5 in a limited manner compared to climate change impacts on productivity and availability of food. On the other hand, however, the aspect of stability or the fluctuations in availability, access due to extreme climate events are better documented. These extreme events are expected to lead to fluctuations in access and thus impact upon food security.

Lastly, but not certainly the least, to quote AR5 "Climate change impacts on utilization may come about through changes in consumption patterns in response to shocks as well as changes in nutrient content of food as well as food safety (medium evidence, medium agreement). Rationing consumption to prioritise calorie-rich but nutrient-poor foods is another common response". Both quantity and dietary quality of available food may go down.

It should be noted that the impact particularly on inland fisheries and aquaculture may also be indirectly due to the changes in flooding characteristics and salinity ingress, specifically in coastal and estuarine areas.

26

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Nutrient quality of food may go down due to climate change. Protein content of food crops may fall while mycotoxin formation may also become a problem. But how far these become major issues are uncertain as under higher temperature certain toxin forming organisms may not be able to survive.

Moisture availability and extremes of heat may reduce the length of growing season as may happen in the Indo-Gangetic plain in case of wheat production which as indicated earlier is in general susceptible to climatic factors. On the other hand, the issue of water availability for agriculture may become a crucial factor in future productivity as scopes for adaptation through irrigation or other means may be limited in the longer run. There may be changes in allocation of land and its spatial distribution to crops as response to climate change occasioned among others due to interaction between water availability and agriculture.

4.5.1 CropsStudies indicate that the negative yield impact of climate change may become pronounced from around 2030s. By 2050s and end of the 21st century the reduced yield will become more certain. Most importantly, from 2080s no matter what adaptation are made or emission scenarios is realized, tropical crops will show lower yield than at present. Region-wise projections also indicate that South Asia will be one of the two most adversely affected regions in this regard. While all crops may be affected, wheat will be affected more than say rice or sugarcane.

For every consecutive decade the yield reduction is expected to be globally 1% "which is small but non-trivial fraction of the anticipated roughly 14% increase in productivity per decade needed to keep pace with demand" (AR5, sub-section 7.4.1, p. 505). It may be noted that these studies generally do not take into account the biotic stressors such as possible increased incidence and may be virulence of pests, weeds and diseases. Whatever are known and analysed indicate that while a lot more needs to be understood in terms of the migration of species and invasion patterns, the insect damage to crop productivity will occur. So may damage due to weed infestation. Both may further lower the base projection of lower yield.

4.5.2 Projected impact on fisheriesThe studies on fisheries do not pertain much to the types of fisheries that Bangladesh has (inland, capture and cultured). Much of it relates to marine fishery and ecosystems that go with them. For marine at least, the general wisdom but with quite some uncertainty is that developing countries in the tropics will experience significant negative impacts while developed countries at higher northern latitudes will benefit at least initially. A major aspect may be species migration towards more suitable ecosystems.

4.5 Integrated Climate Change Impacts

26 AR5, Chapter 7, p. 503.

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Impact on inland fisheries, captured or cultured, have been investigated only in a limited number of studies. For capture rivers fisheries, much depends on water regime changes, in some cases discharge increasing and in others decreasing. "In the latter group, by 2070, up to 75% of the local fish biodiversity would be "headed towards extinction" with the highest rate of extinction forecast mainly in tropical and sub-tropical areas". (AR5, p. 508). This was for capture fisheries. For cultured fisheries, information is limited. But whatever are known in aggregate for inland fisheries leads some to indicate that least developed countries including 4 tropical Asian countries would be at most risk due to adverse impact on fisheries.

4.5.3 Projected livestock impactsImpact on livestock production will be an interactive resultant of several factors including yield and availability of forage and feed, temperature anomalies, water availability and diseases. The attention had been so far mainly on those countries with substantial livestock based economies. Countries which has large livestock population but which seems to be basically farm household based appear to have been given only limited attention, if at all. Whatever is known globally has been summed up as follows: "Higher temperature would lead to decline in dairy production, reduced animal weight gain, stress on reproduction, increased cost of production, and lower food conversion efficiency in warm regions" (AR5, p. 512). Diseases will be more frequent and may be even more virulent reducing productivity potential of livestock on top of the temperature effect.

The AR5 has taken note of the fact that not only climate but also non-climatic factors are important for price changes in food crops and other non-crop food and also that the type of economic models matter as much as climate models. Given these insights, it has been stated that provided climate change results in negative yield effect, food prices and incidence of poverty may rise. However socio-economic institutions and policies probably may impact on food prices as strongly as climate change. On the other hand as productivity in other sectors of the economy may also fall due to climate change, particularly in tropical countries, these may also impact upon food prices but their extent and probable speed are as yet not well understood.

4.7.1 Crop adaptationAdaptation in agriculture has been suggested to mute the negative effects of climate change. Several kinds of adaptation has been mentioned in the literature. For crop cultivation these include planting date changes, early warning systems to manage the planting dates better, improving cultivar tolerance to high temperature through management and breeding stress tolerant varieties including drought, crop diversification

4.6 Impact on Food Prices and Food Security

4.7 Climate Change and Adaptation in Agriculture

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and diversification of livelihood activities outside crop cultivation. Two points should be mentioned here keeping the Bangladesh condition in mind. One is that the AR5 thinks that rainfall variability is important in many places where rainfed agriculture is the norm. In Bangladesh this is not so although rainfed agriculture is still important. Secondly, flood and long term submergence of plants is a reality in Bangladesh. This does not seem to be of much of a global concern.

Whether adaptation is done to manage a single risk or multiple ones, these may reduce the negative impacts of climate change significantly. As Fig. 4.1 has indicated above, with-adaptation situation seems to be better than the without-adaptation situation and the situation for rice appears to be better than for wheat or maize. In general although highly variable by specific situation, on an average the benefits may be 15-18% of the current yield.

4.7.2 Fisheries adaptationMarine capture fisheries are to a considerable extent either over or fully exploited. Little information exists on inland fisheries but is not expected to be unlike marine capture fisheries. Given these issues and that adaptation and governance of the fisheries need to follow an ecosystem based approach, a plethora of management tools may be employed although, none may be sufficient. In case of culture fisheries, improved feed and selective breeding may be required for tolerance to increasing temperature as well as reduce the adverse effects of acidification.

Given the above, there may be no single magic bullet for fisheries to adapt to climate change. Indeed some authors have suggested as many as 25 separate but interrelated activities falling into 3 categories, viz., economic development and government revenue, maintaining contribution of fish to food security (including dietary diversity and nutrition) and sustainable livelihood.

4.7.3 Livestock adaptationAdaptation for livestock production that are mentioned in AR5 are often for large herd size pasture economies, not the household based herd of 2-3 that is the norm in Bangladesh and South Asia. Yet issues like heat stress may be similarly important. Again the indica variety of cattle that we have is different than the African variety. Then again other livestock such as goats and birds such as poultry are totally missing in AR5 possibly because there not enough published peer-reviewed research on these issues. But these are of course very important from the view point not simply of provision of animal protein but also for sustainable livelihood of the poor which affects the access aspect of food security.

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4.8 Research and Data GapsAR5 has clearly indicated the major limitations of the literature. First the emphasis so far had been on cropping systems and crops, not so much on fisheries and the least perhaps on livestock. Secondly, the productivity (read availability) aspect of food security has received some attention. While aspects such as access, distribution, processing and consumption have been addressed only sporadically, little attempt so far has been made to link these to climate change. Similarly, the issue of research on nutrition and utilization as major aspects of food security that may be affected by climate change has so far received only limited attention.

The AR5 has tried to clarify the issues related to food security as affected by climate change. In doing so, it has been clarified that both climatic and non-climatic factors are important. Not only that, they are sometime interrelated although this has not been brought out always very explicitly for the possible reason that there are limited literature analyzing these interconnectedness in various country contexts. Furthermore, as the literature is comparatively abundant in case of crops, rather than in case of fisheries and least so in case of livestock food, most attention had been paid to crops and naturally as its corollary, to food availability rather than access and utilization and nutrition aspects of food security. Indeed, there is very little on nutrition aspects in AR5.

In Chapter VI therefore we shall try to build upon what the AR5 has said and contextualize its analysis and findings for Bangladesh. However, to do so properly, we need to first clarify the benchmark situation of Bangladesh agriculture, its nature and the climatic setting under which it takes place. This is the theme of the next two chapters, Chapter IV briefly describing the present climate trends and the projections for the future, followed by Chapter V on the benchmark situation of agriculture and food security.

4.9 A Summary

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Chapter-5BANGLADESH AGRICULTUREAND FOOD SECURITY ISSUES:

THE PRESENT SITUATION

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Natural and Physical Base of Agriculture

This chapter provides the benchmark situation of Bangladesh agriculture as well as its climatic and other physical contexts. As much of Bangladesh agriculture is known and analysed in various literature, we try to be as brief as possible. However, certain issues such as nutritional aspects of agriculture have received limited attention so far and therefore we discuss that part in more detail.

5.2.1 Location0 0Bangladesh is a tropical country located between 20 34' to 26 38' north latitude and

0 088 01' to 92 41' east longitude in South Asia. It is a littoral country with a long shore line on the south facing the Bay of Bengal while the northern part is close to the Himalayan range.

5.2.2 Topography and physiographyThe country is by and large a low-lying and flat delta. Flood plains which account for roughly 80% of the country is from 1 to 3 meters high from mean sea level in many places. The tidal floodplain is less than one meter high while the average height of uplands particularly in the North-east is roughly only 6 meters.

Based on these elevation characteristics, Bangladesh has three broad physiography, floodplains, terraces (raised upland) and hills. Hills and terraces account for roughly 12 and 8% of the area while the rest 80% as stated above is floodplains including alluvial flood plains and estuaries.

5.2.3 MorphologyRiver morphology is an extremely complex process and an outcome of interactions among many variables some of which must be considered on a rather long time scale of 100 to 200 years. The impact of climate change on river morphology is important because not only does it change the hydrological situation, it also delineates the stability of the boundary between land and water inside the country and thus affects agriculture in multitude of ways including the suitability of the land for crop cultivation and thus ultimately prospects of food production.

To assess the impact of climate change on river morphology, it is assumed that three independent variables discharge, sediment yield and slope will be changed. As there is an

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uncertainty in assessing the sediment load, it is assumed that increase in sediment load would be proportional to the discharge. On the other hand, rising of sea level would cause a change in the slope of the river and with the processes of adjustment, it may propagate upstream. The major issues addressed for river morphology concerned with climate change are (i) riverine morphology, (ii) coastal morphology and (iii) estuarine morphology.

The dynamic stability of the three are somewhat different. While the inland river morphology appears to be largely stable despite short term fluctuation in case of main rivers, coastal morphology is rather quite dynamic indicating a lot of accretions and erosions though there may be a balance between the two. Similarly, estuarine morphology indicates a lot of deposit of sediments but as yet, no balancing of the total sediment load is known with certainty.

The over-all conclusions from the relevant studies on morphology indicate that it is rather dynamic and as much of the water in the country is ultimately due to precipitation within the country and without in the neighbouring countries the possible accretion and erosion due to climate change cannot be ascertained a priori. The issue of natural hazards and shocks emanating from them thus becomes quite uncertain affecting food security in no predictable way.

5.2.4 ClimateBangladesh has a tropical monsoon climate. In general, it is characterized by high temperature, heavy rainfall, often excessive humidity during monsoon (June to September) and marked inter and intra seasonal variation as have already been discussed in the preceding chapter.

5.2.5 Agro-ecological zoneThe potential of agriculture, particularly crop agriculture, in any given area depends on several physical characteristics related to geological formation, soil, hydrology (including flood-ability), agronomic information including dominant land use and related other attributes. Based on such characteristics, the area of the country has been divided into 30 zones called Agro-ecological Zones or AEZs. These AEZs provide a good physical basis for planning of or intervention in agricultural activities as their characteristics provide a kind of idea of suitability of the particular activity or intervention. Some of the AEZs are large and some are quite small. For ease of analysis researchers some time cluster them together. We shall later see that these zones are expected to be impacted by climate change in different ways.

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5.3 Role of Bangladesh Agriculture5.3.1 Agriculture in GDPAgriculture comprises of 4 sub-sectors, viz., crop cultivation, fisheries, livestock and forestry. The sector as whole, in the 1970's and even in the 1980's, was the single most important sector in the economy. But over time other sectors have overtaken it in terms of relative importance in GDP. At present it now accounts for no more than 15-16% of GDP. Crop cultivation accounts for slightly more than one half of the total agricultural GDP. Correspondingly, forestry, fisheries and livestock production have far lower contribution in comparison.

5.3.2 Growth and fluctuation Over the last one decade or so, agriculture had been growing at an average exponential rate of just over 4% compared to 5.8% for GDP. Fisheries and forestry had been growing the fastest. Livestock production lagged behind all others. Crops grew at slightly more than 5.6%.

The average rates however conceal some time quite major year to year fluctuation as evident from Fig 5.1 below. GDP itself has shown quite some fluctuation particularly during the earlier years but somewhat stabilized since then. Agricultural growth on the other hand has sometime tumbled and at another time rose sharply. Note particularly the downswing in 2007-08 continuing the next year due to the conjunction of global shocks of food prices, high prices of energy and fertilizer and major natural disasters at home. But it rebounded the next year. Unfortunately, since then it had been an almost continual decline.

Fig. 5.1 Year to year Fluctuation in Rates of Growth of Agriculture and Its Sub-sectors

Source: Based on figures in BBS, Statistical Year Books, various years

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The decline in agriculture actually mirrored that in crop cultivation which had even sharper troughs and peaks. It was the stabilization effects of growth in fisheries and forestry which muted the influence of fluctuation in crop sub-sector to some extent.

5.3.3 Agriculture and food securityThat agriculture has fallen in relative importance in contributing to GDP actually does not mean that it has become unimportant. And for two reasons at least. The first is that it is absolutely vital for food security the most basic of human needs. On food security, more particularly food grain security, it must be appreciated that over 1970-2015, the output of rice, the main staple, has increased to 3 times from about 12 million to 35-36 million mt. Food aid was a major item of aid previously, but no longer (see Fig. 5.2). Food grain imports is now more for keeping a strategic reserve to weather out sudden falls in output due to natural calamities or other problem (such as global food shocks of 2007 and 2008). On the whole, agriculture now provides for much of the staple food that Bangladesh consumes. And that includes increased fisheries and livestock products which are essential for better nutrition although the requisite balanced diet is yet to be consumed by all.

Fig. 5.2 Food Aid Received over Last 30 Years (Annual average in '000 mt)

Source: Based on data in Ministry of Finance (2014).

5.3.4 Inter-sectoral linkages of agricultureAgriculture has various forward and backward linkages with other sectors of the economy. Thus jute, tea, tobacco, dairy, fish and shrimp processing, rice milling all are directly dependent on agriculture while agriculture is the main consumer of say domestic fertilizer

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industry. Thus while agriculture's direct contribution to GDP has sharply fallen, its indirect contribution is still quite large and strategic.

5.3.5 Agriculture, employment and livelihood Agriculture has another aspect of employment and livelihood which makes it important particularly from gender point of view which is that women are an integral part of the agricultural production and post-harvest processing activities. This is increasingly important because men are either leaving agriculture or not entering agriculture in large numbers and thus women are increasingly taking on the burden of agricultural production. Between 1999/2000 and 2005, the number of women involved in agriculture grew from 3.8 mn to 7.7 mn and further to 10.5 mn by 2010. In 2013, the number slightly fell to 9 million.

Along with the growth in absolute number was the growing share of women in total agricultural employment from 20% in 1999/2000 to 33-34% by 2005/06 rising further to 41% by 2010 and then falling again to 34% by 2013. Note however that agriculture is the biggest employer for both men and women, 53% for women and 42% for men in 2013. These seem to be lower figures than that in 2010 for women at 65%, but slightly higher than that for men at 40% the same year. While the shares of women employed in agriculture may seem to be somewhat static at the moment, the fact remains that the growth of women's employment had been quite faster than that for men in agriculture which between some of the years had even fallen.

5.3.6 Agriculture and export earningsHistorically in many countries agriculture had been the main source of export earnings at least in the initial phases of development. So was it in Bangladesh at one time when jute and tea exports were main sources of foreign exchange earnings. While this is no longer the case, raw jute, processed jute goods, processed leather goods and shrimps all of which are agricultural or agro-processed goods are major export commodities among non-RMG exports.

5.4.1 Cropping intensityThe current cropping intensity in Bangladesh is 188 based on average of years 2000/01-2012/13. Theoretically there are scopes for raising the cropping intensity further but is difficult because of a number of major physical and technical hurdles. This is also understandable from the figures for net and gross cropped area over almost a quarter of a century from 1989/90 to 2012/13. The net cropped area remains largely unchanged over this period at 19-20 thousand acres while the gross cropped is static at about 34-35 thousand acres. So far there appears to be only limited detailed analysis of the causes behind the static cropping intensity. There is a need for finding the available niches for further raising cropping intensity which also perhaps indicate a shift away from rice as far as possible.

5.4 Cropping Pattern and Cropping Intensity-Predominance of Rice

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5.4.2 Cropping patterns and crop diversificationOver the last 15 years or so rice alone accounted for around 80% of the gross cropped area. There had been little change in the proportion although the absolute area appears to has risen somewhat by about 10% or so. On the whole the predominance of rice indicates that there had been little diversification in cropping pattern so far. The Simpson Index which is often used for the purpose of measuring diversity shows it to remain unvarying at 0.35-0.36 all throughout the period. This is quite a low index indicating low diversity.

The non-rice crops together account for no more than 20% in aggregate, each one's share being between 2-3% in general. Again while the aggregate relative importance of non-rice crops has remained static, the absolute areas under the crops and consequently their individual shares have changed sometime spectacularly (see Fig 5.3). Wheat and jute are two cases in point.

While the proportion of area under wheat has drastically fallen, that of jute has risen. Then again maize despite being still quite small in area, has gained quite some prominence over time and this is anecdotally known to be because of its ready use as poultry feed, poultry farming being a thriving activity for more than a decade. This certainly has implications for dietary diversity and nutrition. From nutrition point of view the cause of worry is the rather drastic fall in the area under and its proportion for pulses which are a major source of vegetable protein, particularly for the poor. Oilseeds cultivation appears to be holding out which is good from nutritional point of view as processed edible oil provides essential supply of fat.

Fig. 5.3 Changes in Percent Area under Crops in Gross Cropped Area (2000/01-2013/14)

Source: Based on data in Ministry of Finance (2014)

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27 Diversity has been measured here by Simpson's Index, which is defined as:SID = 1 –Σ (pi)² where the sum is over all i. SID means Simpson's index and pi is the proportion of the area or value of crop or activity. SID varies from 0 to 1, the higher value signifying higher level of diversification. See Deb (2008).

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Against the average picture stated above, it should also be mentioned that there is considerable year to year fluctuation in both area and output of the crops (Ministry of Food: 2016). Annual potato output changes over the last few years varied from 3.4 to 50% while for rice the variation had been from -0.2 to 5.9%. Thus there is a major issue of stability of domestic production.

As for area, rice also is predominant in terms of value added in crop agriculture. It accounts for nearly 68% of the value added while others are less important (Asaduzzaman: 2010b). But as for area, valued added of some of the nutritionally important crops such as pulses and sugarcane, the raw material for making sugar have fallen over years.

5.5.1 Types of rice seasons, water management, variety, qualityBangladesh produces rice, differentiated by season (which means weather conditions as well as susceptibility to climatic natural hazards), technology, input and cost intensity, and quality (including marketability). The most important now, in terms of output is the boro rice grown during the rabi or (hitherto) pre-monsoon season. It is transplanted. Being almost totally high yielding variety (HYV), it is almost wholly dependent on irrigation from surface and ground water, highly cash and input intensive due to high use of fertilizer, pesticides, cost of fuel or charges for irrigation and generally of, but not entirely, coarse variety. Boro has to compete with many other crops during its growing period and these include some of the nutritionally important ones such as oil seeds and pulses. Boro is generally grown on low lying areas for ensuring moisture availability.

Aman is the second most important rice grown during monsoon to post-monsoon period, sometime requiring supplementary irrigation, cultivating both HYVs and traditional transplanted varieties (but also broadcast ones grown on deeply flooded land), moderately input and cost intensive, quality-wise medium to fine varieties and thus having better marketability. Aman is often prone to floods, cyclonic storm surges and drought at late stage of growth and its output therefore fluctuates from year to year. It is generally grown on medium high or flood-protected low lying areas.

Aus is generally cultivated on high land to avoid floods as it is grown under completely rain fed conditions. It is the least input and cash intensive rice with the least share in total rice output. Both HYVs and local varieties are grown in this season. The quality is generally coarse and thus do not have good marketability.

5.5.2 Rice output growth and role of technological changeOutput growthRice output has risen over the last 35 years or so from nearly 12 million mt to 34-35 mn mt at present (Fig. 5.4). The lion's share of the growth in output has come forth from boro rice followed by aman with the least contribution by aus. In fact, the absolute and relative

5.5 Characteristics of Rice Cultivation

61

contribution of aus to rice output have both fallen the slack being taken over largely by boro. Aman production has increased but at a much slower pace than boro.

Rising yield rather than growth in area had been the main responsible factor behind the output growth (Asaduzzaman: 2010b). For example, over 1977/78 to 2006/07, rice area has grown per year at just 0.1% rate while yield has risen at the rate of 2.6% raising total output at the rate of 2.7%. Over 2006/07 to 2014/15, rice area changes had been at the rate of 0.7% while output has changed at the rate of 2.3% again indicating the important role of yield changes in total output growth.

The rise in output had been mainly due to the switch over to HYVs and later also hybrid rice. In 2012/13, of the total rice output of 33.83 mn mt, 83-84% was due to HYVs, practically wholly during boro and aman seasons and 8-9 percent was due to hybrid rice thus making the contribution of HYVs and hybrid to 92-93%.

Fig. 5.4 Output Growth of Rice (1977-2014)

Source: Based on figures in BBS, Statistical Year Books, various years

One particular aspect of the changes in rice output is that both aman and boro show year to year fluctuations some time quite widely (Asaduzzaman et al: 2010b). Two points are worthy of mention here, first, aman fluctuations, mostly negative, are due to various natural hazards that its growth period suffer from; and secondly, the fluctuations in boro which follows aman in cropping sequence, are mainly positive counterbalancing the reduction in its output. Similarly a good harvest of aman is often coupled with lower rise in boro as farmers may want to save costs for cultivation of a cash-intensive crop as well as not force prices down by overproducing. For the last few year as there had been no major natural hazards, one finds that the amplitude of the fluctuations have been more or less dampened for both.

62

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

mn

mt

Aman Aus Boro

1977-78

1979-80

1981-82

1983-84

1985-86

1987-88

1989-90

1991-92

1993-94

1995-96

1997-98

1999-00

2001-02

2003-04

2005-06

2007-08

2009-10

2011-12

2013-14

Yield performanceThe yield of rice had been rising over the last one decade and a half. The rate of growth for aggregate yield of rice was 2.3% per annum. The yield of HYVs had, however, been growing at a much slower rate of 1%. Both are statistically significant. While the average yield had been rising, the present yields are still much lower than those in many other countries. It is just over 3 mt/ha in Bangladesh while countries such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Malaysia get an average of 4 mt/ha while yield in other countries are for example, S. Korea: 7, China 7, Taiwan: 6, Vietnam: 6 and Indonesia: 5 mt/ha. Bangladesh yield therefore still has a long way to go. Indeed, even the HYV yield is only slightly above 3 mt/ha. This means that while climate change may create problems in maintaining and raising productivity in the future, even under the present available technology, Bangladesh can still go a long way in raising domestic output of rice.

5.6.1 Fisheries output growthThe information on which the following discussion is based is rather sketchy in the sense that the manner in which the output are assessed is hardly known. The Fisheries Statistical Year Book 2012-13 published by the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock only mentions a Fisheries Resources Survey without clarifying how the data are collected. Even if there is some understanding of how things are run in the fisheries sector, the fact remains that the estimate of catch at least for the biggest parts, flood plain fishery practiced by millions of people and the artisanal marine fishery similarly practiced by thousands of fishers, are at best guestimates. With this caveat, we move on to the analysis of whatever official data there are.

Fisheries in Bangladesh constitute the second most important sub-sector within agriculture. As shown earlier (Fig. 5.1) it is also the fastest growing sub-sector during the recent years. Bangladesh fisheries include both inland fisheries and marine fisheries. Inland fisheries includes both capture and culture fisheries.

Over the years 2001/02 to 2012/13, the output of fisheries activity in the country has risen from 1.78 million mt to 5.51 million mt. The estimated average exponential rate of growth had been around 5.3-5.4% per annum. This compares favorably with the global long term rate of growth of about 3.2% (FAO: 2014a). Much of this had been inland fisheries which accounted for around 80% of the total catch. The rest was from marine sources.

Capture and culture fisheries accounted for broadly one half each of the total inland fisheries around the turn of the century but since then there had been major changes in the composition. At present capture fisheries have dwindled in importance to around a third while the inland culture fisheries have jumped to a relative share of nearly two-thirds. This had been possible due to a faster rise in fish culture activities.

5.6 Fisheries in Bangladesh

63

Of the total inland capture fisheries output, the lion's share came from flood plain fisheries (70-72%). It may be noted here that in this chapter in the beginning we pointed out that much of Bangladesh is actually a flood plain. The interaction between hydrology (regulated by the flow in the rivers) and relief has resulted in seasonal opportunities for fishing in the commons for all and the opportunities have been well captured so to speak. Naturally, rivers are the other major source of inland capture harvest (about 15%).

The official output figure for fisheries may be an underestimate as apparently it does not take account of subsistence catch by households in rural areas. Noting that the figures from Sample Survey of Census of Agriculture 2008 (BBS: 2011a) indicate a subsistence catch of nearly 0.67 mn mt at least this much is understated in the official figures. Adding it to the 2006-07 output the total comes to 2.74 mt. We shall see later that the Household Income and Expenditure Survey by the BBS for 2010 (BBS: 2011b) implies consumption quite consistent with this level of production.

Of the inland culture fisheries, pond culture accounts for around 80% of total cultured fish harvest. Semi-closed flood plain culture fishery, a new innovation, accounts for nearly 10 percent of the cultured catch. The rest, about 11%, is accounted for by shrimp culture.

For marine fisheries, mariculture is yet to start in Bangladesh. Artisanal marine fisheries accounts for nearly 90% of total catch. The rest is accounted for by industrial marine fisheries.

The changes in the relative importance over time have to do with the rates of growth of the catch under different fisheries activities. The overall catch had been rising at a rate of nearly 5.4%. Inland catch had been rising at almost 6% rate of growth the impetus of which came from inland culture fishery which grew at the rate of 7.4% mainly due to the growth in pond fisheries. Also it may be noted that while marine fisheries had been growing at a comparatively much lower rate of, say, 3.3%, industrial marine fisheries had been rising at the highest rate of all, at about 9%. If such growth continues which is a possibility, given the Government's attention to the development of the Blue Economy, this fishery may have a much larger share in foreseeable future in marine fisheries as well as in total catch.

5.7.1 Role of livestockThe livestock sub-sector has been growing at the lowest rate of all agricultural sub-sectors and as a result its contribution to the GDP in general or the agricultural GDP, in particular, has remained modest. However, it must not mean that livestock is unimportant and secondly, there seems to be only limited data on livestock output and value added which may actually underestimate its contribution to the economy.

To the best of knowledge, there is hardly any analysis of the burgeoning dairy farming and poultry farming as a whole and there is little data that are available in public space.

5.7 Livestock in Bangladesh

64

Here and there a few sporadic case studies are the only material that exist. Second, the information on farm household cattle holding, rearing, disposal (sale or slaughter) and the types of other services received from them are unaccounted for proper analysis. Such services and outputs apart from meat and dairy and also eggs from poultry include draught services for tillage, manures for fertilization, hides and bones of dead or slaughtered animals. Thus livestock are extremely important not simply from direct food security and nutritional view, their indirect contribution to food security should also be recognized as well as sources of income, particularly for poor households.

5.7.2 Livestock outputGiven the above caveats, the official data are reproduced here for whatever they are worth (Table 5.1). Note the sudden increase in milk production between 2011/12 and 2012/13 which was 46% or so. Why there was such an increase defies all logic. In any case whatever has been produced had been very likely mainly from farm households although dairy and poultry farming have gained quite some ground in recent years.

Table 5.1 Selected Livestock Output (mm mt)

Source: BBS (2015).

The issue of organization of production is important from the view point of livelihood and sources of income of the poor and thus is an indirect pathway to food and nutrition security. In case of crop farming, farms are in general rather quite small. The average size of a farm as estimated from the Agricultural Census of 2008 was just 1.50 acres. Farms operating no more than 2.5 acres of land constituted 83% of all farms but operated just under 50% of land. Farms operating more than 7.5 acres had a share of just 1.5% of all farms but operated more than 11 percent of land. The rest falling in the middle account for around 15% operate just under 40% of land.

28

5.8 Organisation of Production and Tenurial and Other Production Relations

28 For that matter a just released report on gross capital formation in several sectors which includes livestock rearing gives no attention to output from household based cattle and other animals. See (BBS: 2014).

65

Year Milk Meat Egg

2008/09 2.29 1.08 4692

2009/10 2.37 1.26 5742

2010/11 2.95 1.99 6078

2011/12 5.56 2.33 7304

2012/13 5.07 3.62 7617

2013/14 6.09 4.52 10168

Most land is owner operated. Wholly owned farms accounted for nearly 61% of all holdings and 56% of operational land. Part owner-part tenant farms accounted for a third of farms and operated 44% of land. Pure tenants are very few, just over 1%.

For fisheries, it is difficult to find a common denominator among various types to describe and understand the organisation of production. The 2008 Census of Agriculture report that of the 15.37 million farm households, 56% were involved in some kind of fishing activities, 37.5% in inland capture fisheries and 18.3% in inland culture fisheries. Non-commercial capture (86% of households) and culture (91%) fisheries were the norm. The above figures do not include the professional fishermen as such. It is estimated that some 1.5 million (1.2 million in inland fisheries and 0.3 million in marine fisheries) people, according to FAO estimates (FAO:2014b), are employed in the sector.

Most crop cultivating farms are mixed crop and livestock farms tilling some land and keeping one or two cows or bullocks or more and also a few poultry birds. However, there is little by way of confirmed information regarding commercial dairy and poultry firms, their output and that of the small holder mixed farms and their relative profitability.

5.9.1 AvailabilityThe rising output of rice and falling imports of food grains clearly indicate that for food grains at least, the main source is domestic production. But this is not the case with several other types of food which are necessary to be consumed for better nutrition.

Among crops, while vegetables production has increased, output of several other crops such as pulses, sugarcane and oil seeds have fallen. The only major exception had been potato whose area and output had both risen. The falling trends for other crops are worrisome because pulses are a major source of vegetable protein while processed oil seeds provide essential fats and sugarcane is processed to produce sugar which provides calorie. Pulses, sugar and edible oils are now major importable food. So is milk (in powder form) as the country does not produce enough milk for consumption.

In case of fish output, the situation seems better than before because of the rising output particularly from inland culture fisheries as described earlier. This may mean much better availability than before. Indeed, the fish consumption in Bangladesh per person per day is 49.5 grams (BBS: 2011b) which translates into just above 18 kg per year which is the average global consumption per person/year. This figure implies a total consumption of, say in 2006-07, for a population roughly of 150 million, 2.71 mn mt - a figure which tallies well with our revised inland production of 2.74 mn mt for 2006-07.

What all these means is that Bangladesh needs to consider the issues of climate change and its effects on domestic production in general for all crops and livestock and food from

5.9 Food Security Issues

66

aquatic sources. For certain of these, the country has to keep track of what is happening elsewhere to maintain supply though imports for food security and more particularly ensuring nutrition. It needs to keep in view the possibility that the normal supply sources may not be available in future as climate change will affect other countries and their cropping patterns also. The large scale depletion reported for natural capture fisheries in inland water bodies needs to be particularly noted. If culture fisheries falter due to climate change, the major source of animal protein in the country will be under severe threat.

5.9.2 Access to foodSeveral factors influence access. One is of course prices while the other is income level. These two are elements of economic access. The third which actually measures physical access is more fundamental at times of general distress and during the aftermaths of major disasters.

Physical accessThe physical consumption levels of rice is shown in Fig. 5.5. The absolute consumption levels of other selected food are shown in Table 5.2. An examination of the Fig 5.5 along with the Table 5.2 indicate the following:

Fig 5.5 Rice consumption levels over time (gms/capita/day)

Source: BBS, various publications; for DDN see Nahar et al (2013)Note: Total means total consumptions by all respondents. 01 etc mean the year 2001 and accordingly.

DDN is desirable dietary norm.

250

300

350

400

450

500

Gm

s/pe

rson

/day

Total 01 Total 05 Total 10 Poor 10 Nonpoor 10 DDN

67

a. Rice consumption has fallen over time, but still remains far higher compared to the desirable dietary norm (Nahar et al: 2013).

b. Except for sugar/jaggery, for all other foods, the consumption levels have increased over time but are quite below the desirable dietary norm.

Table 5.2 Consumption of Various Food over Time (gms/per capita/per day)

Source: See Fig. 5.6Note: See Fig. 5.6

These figures thus indicate that the physical access even during normal times are highly inadequate from nutritional point of view. In times of extreme climatic events such as cyclonic storms or major floods, even this apparent normal access is not possible. From physical access point of view, thus, Bangladesh remains highly food insecure.

Economic accessTable 5.3 shows the consumer price indices for the last few years. The indices indicate that food prices have in general almost doubled by 2013/14 compared to the situation in 2005/06 which is the base year. In comparison non-food indices have risen somewhat slower. On a disaggregated level, the price of coarse rice has risen from around Taka 1650/-quintal in 2005/06 to around Taka 3000/quintal or even more by 2010/11 but fell somewhat later on. The price of medium quality rice has also shown similar tendencies.

Prices of lentils, however, has risen to almost 3 times its level in 2005/06 by 2013/14 from Taka 3600 per quintal or thereabout to more than Taka 10,000/quintal. Eggs per 100 pieces has risen in price from Taka 340 or so to around Taka 900 by 2012/13 and 2013/14. Edible oil price have more than doubled during the same period. So has milk prices while sugar prices have remained somewhat static probably because of large scale imports of sugar. In general therefore, prices have roughly doubled over a spam of 8/9 years indicating that these have been rising at a trend rate of roughly 8-9 percent per annum, quite a drastic rise at least in nominal terms affecting the poor more than the not so poor.

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Food items Total 95/96 Total 2001 Total 2005 Total 2010 DDNRice 464.3. 458.54 434.64 416.01 350Wheat 33.7 17.24 12.08 26.09 50Potato 49.5 55.45 63.3 70.52 100Pulses 13.9 15.77 14.19 14.3 50Vegetables 152.5 140.47 157.02 166.08 300E Oil 9.8 12.82 16.45 20.51 30Meat 11.6 13.29 15.22 18.66 40Eggs 3.2 5.27 5.15 7.25 30Fish 43.8 38.45 42.14 49.41 60Milk 32.6 29.71 32.4 33.72 130Sugarcane 9.2 6.85 8.08 8.5 20

Table 5.3 Movement of Consumer Price Index (2005/06=100)

Source: Ministry of Finance (2014).

Income and access to foodThe absolute levels of consumption by the poor and non-poor during the last Household Income and Expenditure Survey in 2010 are presented in Table 5.4. These very clearly show that except for rice, the poor have lower consumption than the non-poor. For rice it very similar consumption levels.

Table 5.4 Relative Consumption of Selected Food Items by Poor and Non-poor in Bangladesh (2010)

Source: Calculated by consultant based on BBS (2011b)

5.9.3 Utilisation and nutrition aspectsNutrition aspects of food security may be discussed from several angles, one being detailed examination of nutritional quality of food and their consumption and associated nutritional intake in terms of calorie, protein, and micro nutrients of various sorts and their outcomes

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Food items Poor Non-poor Poor as % of(gms/day/person) (gms/day/person) Non-poor

Rice 409.19 420.52 97Wheat 20.36 28.73 70Potato 65.54 73.78 85Pulses 10.15 16.22 62Vegetable 141.18 177.25 80Edible oil 14.2 25.51 60Meat 5.77 25.19 22Egg 5.5 9.02 37Fish 31.16 57.81 53Milk 12.18 43.63 27Sugarcane/gur 3.32 10.88 30

Fiscal year All Food Non-food2006-07 109.39 111.63 106.512007-08 122.84 130.30 113.272008-09 132.17 140.61 127.362009-10 141.18 149.40 130.662010-11 156.59 170.48 138.772011-12 170.19 183.65 152.942012-13 181.73 193.24 166.972013-14 195.08 209.79 176.23

in terms of two basic nutritional indicators, viz., child and maternal under and malnutrition and secondly overweight and obesity issues. Here we first provide a snapshot of the child and maternal nutrition situation mainly and then some of the associated factors on which there are some information in the country.

Nutrition situationOne major nutritional outcome is the child nutrition in terms of specific measures for underweight, stunting and wasting. On the first two counts, there appears to be appreciable advancement over time as shown in Fig. 5.6. However, while the level of stunting is below the standard set by the WHO, the national figure hides substantial spatial variation as 39 out of 64 districts have higher than the WHO standard. For wasting there appears to be a static situation.

Fig. 5.6 Child Under-nutrition in Bangladesh

Source; Hussain, Talukder and Ahmed (2015)

While underweight, stunting and wasting are important in terms of nutritional status in themselves, what these mean for other health problems is also important not simply in later life but also for children. For example, Hawalader et al (2013) have shown that stunting and also underweight are major risk factors for child wheezing caused by respiratory problems.

29

30

29

30 This sub-section draws liberally from Hussain, Talukder and Ahmed (2015).

The measures are: underweight - weight for age Z-score (standard deviation) <= 2; stunting - height for age Z score <= 2; wasting - weight for age Z score <= 2.

70

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

71%68%

71%

59%

64%

55%54%

67%

62% 61%

50%54%

43% 43%

54%

49%

45%47%

41%39%

37%

49%

44%41% 42%

37%

32%

36%35%

31%

CNS86

CNS89

CNS92

CNS95

DHS97

DHS99

CNS00

DHS04

CNS05

DHS07

FSNSP13

FSNSP12

FSNSP11

FSNSP10

HFSNA09

17% 16% 17%18%

20%

12% 13%14% 14% 14% 12%12% 11%10%

17%

Alternative MDG 1, childunderweight goal = 31%

Underweight

Stunting

Wasting

Up to the age of 5, there appears to be little gender-differentiation in nutritional outcome but proportion of stunted adolescent girls is 29%. Also 12% of adult women because they are short for their age, are at risk of giving low birth weight babies which creates an intergenerational vicious cycle of under-nutrition. On the other hand, there is an increasing problem of overweight which has increased from 18% in 2004 to 38% by 2013 and is likely to raise the problems of many serious non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, heart problems etc.

The other nutritional disorder relates to micronutrient deficiency. Table 5.5 indicates that only iron deficiency seems to be somewhat low while all others are in general high. High prevalence of deficiency seems to occur in cases of iodine, zinc, vitamin A and vitamin B .12

Table 5.5 Micronutrient Deficiency Proportions among Population Sections at Risk

Source; Hussain, Talukder and Ahmed (2015)Note: NPNL : Non-pregnant, non-lactating

Earlier we have indicated that there are several types of determinants of nutritional outcomes. One of these is food diversity and dietary habits which we have discussed earlier. Second is that the problems of access to food are different for different groups, in general better for the richer sections than the poor, though not always. These two points are discussed below. First, the deviation from the desirable dietary norm.

We first recall the data in Table 5.4 which showed that while access may be rising those are quite well below the desirable norm in most cases. The same information is provided in Fig. 5.7 in a slightly different way. Here we have shown how far above or below the actual consumption is compared to the dietary norm for both the poor and the

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Deficiency Population group Prevalence (%)Subclinical vitamin A deficiency Preschool age 20.5(serum retinol<0.7 mmol/L) School age 20.9

NPNL women 5.4Anaemia Preschool age 33.1

School age 17.1 - 19.1NPNL women 26.0

Iron deficiency (serum ferritin) Preschool age (<12 ng/mL) 10.7School age 3.9 - 9.5NPNL women (<15 ng/mL) 7.1

Iodine deficiency (urine iodine<100ug/L) School age 40.0NPNL women 42.1

Zine deficiency Preschool age 44.6NPNL women 57.3

Folate deficiency NPNL women 9.1B deficiency NPNL women 23.012

non-poor groups. In most cases, the intake is at least 30% and in some cases such as eggs, it is almost 80% below what should be consumed and the gap is even higher for milk/milk products. Obviously the last one has to do with livestock productivity in the country as well as balance of payments constraints for import. The deprivation of the poor is also glaringly evident.

Figure 5.8 Food Intake Relative to Dietary Norm (2010)

Source: Calculated by Consultant based on BBS (2011b).

Apart from sugar which apparently is consumed more than is healthy, rice is the only food that is consumed much more than what should be. And here there is little difference between the poor and the non-poor. It should be noted at this stage that rice is the major source of both calories intake and protein intake. For calories its contribution was 62% in 2010 lower from 2005 when it had been 69%. Edible oils accounted for just about 8% and is in second place in calorie contribution, minor cereals and wheat at around 4% each and just below 4% for vegetables. Fish contributed just below 3%.

Rice again tops the list at 30% for protein share down from 32% in 2005. This is followed by fish at about 10% (which may in fact be a little higher if previous discussion on underestimation of output is considered), followed by meat and eggs at about 5.6%. Vegetables again contribute just about 5%. There are some time pronounced rural-urban differences like those for rice and fish; for the urban areas their shares are 25% compared to 32% for rural and just about 12% (for rural 9%) followed by meat at 9% (for rural about 4%). Furthermore, an analysis of the HIES 2010 data indicates that even for micronutrients such

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

% diffe

renc

e from

norm

RiceWheat

Potato

Pulsesvegetables

E Oil

MeatEggs

FishMilk

Sugar/gur

Total

10 Poor 10 Nonpoor

10

72

as zinc, calcium and iron, rice is the main source contributing respectively 85, 67 and 55% for agricultural producers (Fiedler: 2014).

The implications are obvious, while we need to shift away from rice for a more nutritionally balanced diet, this cannot be hurried because this is the major source of both calorie and protein and also some of the micronutrients. Without the level of consumption the poor now has they would be nutritionally even poorer if their rice consumption is lowered without concomitant rise in consumption of other foods. While this is difficult in the short run, climate change may create further difficulties in the process as carbon fertilization is known to lower the micronutrient contents of staples such as rice. It may be noted that the problem has been acknowledged by the government in its submission to the 2014 International Nutrition Conference (GoB: 2014).

One specific point that has come up recently regarding such dietary norms is that each of the food items perhaps should not be assessed as to its importance solely based on its nutritional content but in association with other food intakes. A slightly dated but perhaps overlooked scientific investigation (Larsen et al: 2003) indicated that amaranth, a popular leafy vegetable in Bangladesh may be individually nutritionally good but in association with other foods may not be so. If further confirmed, this means that the dietary norms should be decided taking such issues into consideration. On the other hand, that dietary diversity is essential appears to have been brought up by others such as Zongrone, Winskell and Menon (2012) who found clear evidence that diverse diet is associated with better nutritional indicators for children in Bangladesh.

At this point it may also be argued that some of the poor who are in probably the worst situation are those who live in female-headed households. While we do not have information on nutritional status in such households, there are other available information which indicates that their situation may even be worse than the male-headed poor households.

One particular major aspect of nutrition as indicated earlier is the nutrition of babies for the first 1000 days of their lives including that in the mothers' wombs. Nutrition during the time in womb through mothers' nutrition and later particularly immediately upon birth from breast milk is absolutely vital for child survival and health status later in life. On this count there had been little improvement over time. Breast feeding within 1 hour of birth has improved from an abysmal 9% in 1993 to around 40-42% now but has remained stagnant at that for quite some time. The practice of six months of absolute breast feeding too has stagnated at around 45%. The 2 years of continued breast feeding had always been high at around 80% but remained static. There certainly are various reasons for such patterns. While one of these may be the limited maternal nutrition and probably ill-health which limits breast milk formation, the other is very likely sheer lack of awareness and cultural inhibition. Such issues remain little researched so far.

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5.10 A Summing Up This chapter has tried to put in place the information on various factors that determine food security and nutrition and their interrelationships based on available quantitative information. The basic message seems to be that there has been a lot of positive changes during the last 10-15 years. However, these are not yet enough. Improving this already unsatisfactory situation further may in fact be constrained by climatic factors as already discussed at the global level based on AR5 findings in Chapter IV and at the national level in the following Chapter VI.

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Chapter-6CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND STRESS,

NON-CLIMATIC FACTORS AND FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY

6.1 Introduction

6.2 International Literature

Agriculture in any given country or area is governed largely by the climate it has and the various climate related events and the related policies for influencing behavioural patterns of economic agents in production, consumption and trade. Among the physical factors, given the level of temperature and the soil conditions, it is water availability which determines the rhythm of crop agriculture. Given the relief of the area, again it is water availability and its temporal and spatial pattern that determine the opportunities for inland fisheries. For livestock both temperature and water availability are crucial as these determine their metabolic functions and thus productivity. In this chapter we intend to examine how much is actually known about these issues.

The Bangladesh literature is wholly new and thus discussed in some detail for understanding their policy implications. In case of the international literature particularly those which have been published since AR5 are new. Then again, there are also some earlier literatures which do not appear to have been considered by AR5 but remain nevertheless important for the purpose at hand. These have also been examined.

The main emphasis in all these discussion will be on understanding the implications of the results of these studies for food security in all its three aspects. The attempt here would be to find out how far AR5 findings are still valid, have been supplemented or new areas of understanding have been opened up since then or even before AR5 but were overlooked. In fact as indicated in Chapter III, AR5 is largely silent on nutritional issues. Furthermore issues such as the nature of adaptation, women's agency, intrahousehold distribution of food, the problem of repeated and extreme shocks and food security have been given limited or little attention. Here we shall try to remedy that as far as possible, particularly in the context of Bangladesh. For this reason the Bangladesh literature review is much more elaborate than the review based on international literature.

6.2.1 IntroductionAR5 brought up several issues regarding the impact of climate change and variability on food production in general and food and nutrition security due to change in food quality, in particular. The issues of livestock and fisheries have received much less attention than crops in general and within crops, much attention had been on cereals. The international literature which are generally contemporaneous with AR5 or been published since then are

31

31 Concern has also been raised about moral and ethical questions about nutrition security. While we refrain from getting into that debate, the interested readers may look up Fanzo (2015).

77

reviewed to check how far the AR5 findings remain validated or been extended and supplemented.

6.2.2 Food security in general and crop agriculturea. Post-AR5 Review: One of the major review and analytical work post-AR5 is Elbehri, Elliott and Wheeler (2015). Their main points do not differ much from AR5 diagnosis and analytical review but provide certain nuanced and somewhat more elaborate treatment. Also it may be noted that some of these points have been indicated in Chapter II. Elbehri, Elliott and Wheeler particularly point to

- the importance of water availability;

- the role science, knowledge and evidence-based policy-making;

- treating climate change challenges as problems of development and to integrate investments for growth and poverty reduction with climate related investments as keeping them separate harms both;

- treating food security issues at the global level (due to role of trade and related aspects), but managing food insecurity and environmental impacts at the national, regional and local levels;

- the implications of production impacts of climate change into its nutritional consequences such as childhood stunting as a result of shortgaes of food availability and lowered protein contents of plant foods including rice and legumes (pulses);

- food quality changes in major crops including reduction in micro-nutrient contents.

b. Integrated approach: The overall ideas in the review exercise above is useful and broadly supplements the AR5 views. The review also called for an integrated approach that has been emphasized by others also. In fact, Elbehri, Elliott and Wheeler (2015)'s point on the two types of adaptation (reactive or pro-active) itself may need a judicious mix to be practical. Others calling for an integrated or coordinated intervention have approached the issues from different perspectives.

Technical Brief of Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition (2014) has shown that there is a plethora of elements of a food system even without the complexities brought in by climate change. The Brief has gone into much detail on these elements. The food system includes issues such as consumer purchasing power which may include, for example, food pricing policies, various feeding programmes such as school feeding wherever necessary (particularly for adequate child nutrition) and safety

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nets and social protection policies. What these mean is that one needs a coordination among all these policies and also a workable monitoring system for checking their internal consistencies. In practice, no one intervention usually takes so many things into consideration but at the same time one must guard against "siloed policy thinking focused on just one or other part of the system at a time, and one size fits all legislative programmatic solutions". But what it must do is to keep a broad track of other relevant policies for charting a proper course for any particular intervention, yet it must have a suit of "varied entry points… to have greater nutrition impacts than one action affecting one domain alone".

That many policies have a role to play in ensuring food security has also been echoed by others (Dufour et al: 2015). Similarly Reardon and Timmer (2014) discussed issues of coordination while pointing out that in Asia as elsewhere five inter-linked systems and mega-trends are working with implications for food security which are urbanization, diet change, agri-food system transformation, rural factor market transformation and intensification of farm technology. They also deplore the silo-minded policies and interventions and call for an integrated move both through public policies and private investments to foster productivity (read efficiency) in all the interlinked systems. The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture (2012) makes 7 recommendations for a sustainable agriculture under climate change the first one of which reads: "Integrate food security and sustainable agriculture into global and national policies as a first step to inclusion of agriculture….". Coordination within the global research community has also been forcefully advocated by a large group of scientists particularly for maintaining and raising cereal (wheat, rice, maize, pearl millet) productivity (Reynolds et al: 2016).

One thus finds that there is a strong advocacy against silo mentality and for an integrated, mainstreamed approach towards food and nutrition security under climate change. As the Technical Brief of Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition (2014) has warned everything possibly be done under one type of intervention, but whatever is done should consider other interventions for linked objectives.

c. Trade and external factors: The case of trade as a leveraging factor for food security has been argued by several such as Tangermann (2016). He argues that climate change may exacerbate volatility of food production and food prices locally and in such a situation lowering trade-restrictive practices particularly regarding food trade and generally agricultural trade should be a global policy. The author calls for various options one major one being a kind of financial solidarity or rather a mechanism whereby countries in need may be able to be supported with the contribution to the funds being in proportion to trade

Such coordination even for scientific inquiry requires quite a few essential steps (Reynolds: 2010).

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32 Agricultural support under WTO rules fall in what are called coloured boxes. These are those falling in amber box (trade-distorting such as subsidies and taxes), green box (low trade-distorting measures), blue boxes (production limiting measures). There is also a fourth one called development box to be used only be developing countries for developmental purposes. The WTO website has full references to documents and materials and analyses on these issues.

distorting measures by countries but also the more transparent actions regarding operations of the Green Box measures. The UK-US Task Force (2015) also calls for better governance of trade as will be discussed later.

Even when there is no extreme shock, and whether or not trade makes the shocks more bearable in terms of food security, there is the likelihood that agricultural output will be facing a challenge in the near future, say 2030. Hertel, Burke and Lobell (2010) argue that there would be various kinds of destabilising effects of low productivity in which poverty incidence will rise for some segments of society while it might be better for others and the effects are likely to vary geographically between nations. The food security status thus may change but not uni-directionally as rising prices will affect different groups differently.

d. Nature of adaptation: The nature of adaptation against the adverse impacts of climate change has attracted attention from many and discussed in the AR5 (Elbehri, Elliott, Wheeler: 2015, Mapfumo et al: 2015). Their thesis is that without a transformational adaptation, this is going to be short-lived and unsustainable. The idea is that tinkering bit by bit with the system (for the present purpose, the agriculture and food system) will not do as there are likely to be major changes in the climate system, which may be irreversible, and cannot be adapted to without major changes in the process of adaptation. There will have to be possibly drastic modification of the policies and procedures particularly for long-term outcomes and to be sustainable this will have to be brought about by major involvement of those who are expected to be direct beneficiaries.

The above prescription for adaptation means that adaptation is not simply a matter of introducing certain technical means of doing things differently under climate change. Actions from various disciplinary angles, broadly social science and agricultural and related sciences would be necessary. There is a certain uneasiness among authors such as Lennart et al (2015) regarding if there is such meeting grounds yet.

e. Nutrient content of food: In line with discussion in AR5 regarding lower nutritional contents of plant food under climate change and its constituent elements and underlying factors (such as carbon enrichment of atmosphere), other studies have echoed similar concerns. In a 2014 meta-analysis Myers et al (2014) have shown (see Fig. 6.1) negative changes in nutrient contents in certain crops under elevated CO by middle of 21st century 2

relative to those under ambient CO levels. In practically all cases there was some time 2

substantial negative and statistically significant changes.

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Fig. 6.1 Changes in Micronutrient Contents of Several Food Crops under Elevated CO2 Content in Atmosphere

One point of note here is that the results for rice are based on basically temperate zone experiments and thus may or may not apply to conditions in a tropical country, say, Bangladesh. Secondly while legumes such as field peas and soybeans were considered, the main legumes grown and consumed in Bangladesh such as lentils, mung beans, mash kalai and khesari were not experimented with. There is thus a major case for such experimentations not only under elevated contents but also for temperature rise and rainfall anomalies.

f. Specific cases of adaptation: Despite the warning against tinkering by Mapfump et al (2015) above, many of the ideas regarding adaptation are of that type. Biofortification for guarding against lower nutritional quality of plant food has been raised by Technical Brief of Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition (2014, 2015) because of the prospects of lower nutritional contents of plant foods as indicated above. The other issue of adaptation that comes up is the breeding for certain characteristics to withstand this or that adverse impact of climate change or climatic events. Questions, however, have been raised about the principles to be followed.

Source: Based on data in Myers et al (2014).

When specific cultivars were considered, despite certain variation in the extent of changes, the general situation remained the same. Yet it raised the prospects of switching cultivars to take care of one or other nutrition losses. But this also meant that there was certain trade-offs in terms of nutrient contents when cultivars are switched. While it remains clear cut that the nutritional content of some major food items will decrease, the specific cultivar by cultivar analysis of nutrient content under climate change, or more particularly due to changes in temperature and CO , is still limited and so are the choices 2

regarding cultivar farmers or policy makers.

CO2

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Horlings, and Marsden (2011) believe that a new agro-ecological approach may do the trick of feeding the world. While not arguing against such an approach, Sala and Bochhi (2014) similarly argue that this (yield rise based on principles of first green revolution) will not help much in the face of climatic variability being a major contributing factor to losses in HYV output in general compared to output losses for local varieties. Indeed farmers stated in consultations that climatic variability (a composite idea of temperature rise, erratic rainfall and the like) is the main constraint to get a desirable output while the next most important is the limited irrigation facilities (obviously for managing drought). The authors thus conclude that the conventional breeding programmes will not do because of the greater variability of HYV yield to climatic factors but also due to the site-specificity of the outcomes. The breeding progarmmes will have to adapt to these realities and thus call for development of ecotype specific varieties better capable to withstand the stressors which harks back to ideas by Horlings and Marsden (2011) referred to earlier.

The issue of irrigation also been brought up other authors such as Chun et al (2016). A clear cut rising trend in temperature but also an increasing variability of rainfall were observed over much of Southeast Asia. Under these circumstances, based on model results, irrigation along with fertilization management and planting date shifting were judged to be the main elements of an adaptation strategy for rice cultivation. It may be noted that while not so modeled, Bangladeshi farmers too are in favour of irrigation management as an adaptation strategy for rice cultivation under climate change although this perhaps cannot be a long-term strategy due to uncertain rainfall.

g. Availability and nutrition linkage: The role of availability in itself and as it affects other broad elements of food security has been validated by various authors. Nutritional outcomes of disruptions to availability appear to be consistent across scenarios (Dijk and Meijrink: 2014; Baldos and Hertel: 2014). Baldos and Hertel based on modelling results indicate that shorn of agricultural productivity growth a rise in demand due to population and income will lead to price rises and rising incidence of malnutrition. However, given that such agricultural productivity growth is uncertain under temperature rise and uncertain rainfall due to climate change, on the whole, the prospects for nutrition security appear to be gloomy at the worst and uncertain at the best.

h. An interlinked system with wastage as a major issue: We would now wish to discuss a little elaborately the report by the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change. In its view the global agriculture is now operating outside a safe space bounded by emission from agricultural, burgeoning demand for food and the maximum

33

33 It may be noted that probably this particular report should have been discussed earlier because of its comprehensiveness and that it came out earlier than most other studies discussed here. But the reason for it being discussed last is precisely for that reason that most other studies provide only snapshot of part of the problem without providing a holistic view except perhaps for studies mentioned at (a), (c) and (f). But of course all came out later than the Commission report.

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capacity to produce food. This is shown in Fig. 6.2. At present the global agriculture is outside this safe space and may remain so even by 2050 if appropriate measures are not undertaken. In fact the diagram also points to the activities and policies that may be undertaken.

Increasing the production potential is of course a major consideration. But lowering emission through technological, agronomic and other management changes may push the emission curve upwards. However, the most interesting at this stage is the third boundary of global food needs which will increase with population and income growth but the elimination of waste at different stages from the field to the consumer's table would lower the need for production per person. Figs 6.3 (a) and (b) provide the nature and extent of such wastage. Note that the wastage occurs in the developed world more in consumption while in the developing countries, it is the production and generally pre-consumption stage where losses occur.

Such wastage therefore may be removed through improvement in supply chain, more equitable access to food and to healthier diets (noting particularly that obesity and overweight problems are the other nutritional disorder apart from malnutrition). However, if the world temperature continues to rise at the present trend, these may never be enough. "In a much warmer world it will be impossible to even produce current levels of food", the Commission states.

Fig. 6.2 Safe Space for Global Agriculture under Climate Change

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Source: Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change (2012)

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agriculture-inducedclimate change

Global populationfood needs

maximum foodproductiontoday

2050based oncurrenttrends

food

low climate change extreme

34 Of course the actual proportions of waste by supply chain stage may vary by type of food. For example, for a study of the differences in wastage by stage of supply chain for different types of food for USA see Dou et al (2016).

The Commission makes 7 broad recommendation in the face of the current and possible future problems. :

1. "Integrate food security and sustainable agriculture into global and national policies as a first step to inclusion of agriculture….

2. "Significantly raise the level of global investment in sustainable agriculture and food systems in the next decade.

3. "Sustainably intensify agricultural production while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other negative environmental impacts of agriculture…

Fig. 6.3 Nature and Stage of Food Losses by Region

4. "Develop specific programs and policies to assist populations and sectors that are most vulnerable to climate changes and food insecurity…

5. "Reshape food access and consumption patterns to ensure basic nutritional needs are met and to foster healthy and sustainable eating patterns worldwide…

6. "Reduce loss and waste in food systems, targeting infrastructure, farming practices, processing, distribution and household habits… and

7. "Create comprehensive, shared, integrated information systems that encompass human and ecological dimensions"

Some of these recommendations have been echoed through latter day studies and research as indicated earlier. Yet, very few have pointed to the issue of prevention of major losses in consumption, production and post-production activities not simply to lower the needs for food production but also to lower the incidence of nutritional disorders other than malnutrition. The same applies to the need for dietary practices for healthier eating habits. However, it is the 4th recommendation of meeting the dietary and nutrition security of the disadvantaged which should ring the loudest bell now and in future. As we shall later argue this should be one major area of intervention in Bangladesh.

Source: Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change (2012)

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That many policies are necessary to be adopted and implemented for meeting the challenge of food security under climate change has been more or less accepted. But prevention of losses in the value chain including waste as indicated above is going to be a major policy plank as indicated also by the analysis made by Dufour et al (2015). A figure quoted by them from another source supports the view (see Fig. 6.4 below). Note that the suit of policies or interventions are similar to those by the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture (2011). Avoidance of supply chain losses (i.e. reduction of losses in the field and post-harvest) is thus a major source, among others, of final availability.

Fig. 6.4 Types of Necessary Food Security Interventions

i. Crop diversification for dietary diversity: Time and again two issues have come up in all kinds of agricultural intervention, the need to ensure supply of staples and yet diversify to other crops including food crops and non-crop agriculture for not only better income prospects (ensuring better economic access to food) but also to make for diversity in diet for nutrition. While this has not come about yet, the lessons of the attempt in Indian Punjab may be useful. The analysis by Sharma and Singh (2014) that such attempts largely fail because the government may not be able to ensure better income through better prices and marketing system including provision of necessary infrastructure. The authors recommend better marketing and pricing structures and infrastructure and region-specific specialization in crop cultivation.

j. Extreme shocks: Climate change is both about the changes in the average levels (of temperature and rainfall) and their increasing variability. The latter brings in the issue of extreme and rapid onset climatic or climate influenced events. So far we had generally been discussing issues related to a general rise in temperature and uncertain rainfall but increasingly extreme shocks appear to be likely. Agriculture being weather-dependent means that extreme weather shocks may also affect agriculture in an extreme manner. The UK-US Task Force (2015) attempted to examine this issue and come up with recommendations for global level policy. The message of the Task Force is very disturbing.

Source: As quoted in Durfour et al (2014).

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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Reduction of supply chain lossesHealthier diets

Reduction of biofuel demandArea expansion

Irrigated area expansionCropping intensity

Seed productivity (conventional and GM)Soil management

Crop protectionMechanisationInput efficiency

Fertilisation

Consumption - reduction in demand

Production - cropland intensity

Production - cropland expansion

Production - yield increases

First, the issues of extreme shocks and their occurrence frequency or risks are as yet understood only imperfectly; secondly, whatever is known points to major shortfalls in calorie from cereals (because of the production shocks) with carbon fertilization and more so without. While trade may help in managing shortfalls, it may be more difficult for food import-dependent countries and more so as countries may impose bans on food export as happened in 2007-08.

Among the recommendations are several which have also been suggested in a more general context of climate change impacts of agriculture and include better governance of the global trade system from the view point of food security and raising agricultural productivity through better and appropriate adaptation mechanisms nationally. The other two relates to better understanding of the risks involved due to extreme weather shocks and how to coordinate risk management globally.

k. Yield or output?: Much of the discussion on impact of climate change on crop agriculture relates to probable yield changes while output is the ultimate quantity of interest. As output is also a function of area as well as cropping intensity (meaning the intensity of land use in a year), it comes as surprise that there had been rather very little on these two issues by scientists as noted by Izumi and Ramakutty (2015). While this may be so in terms of global data, at least for national changes in area, among economists there had been possibly thousands of studies on area response as well as output response to prices that has been not appreciated. In fact, rather grudgingly the authors have admitted that prices are a major issue in farmers' thinking regarding response. In fact what is being missed is that a farmer's decision does not depend only on one set of factors be it climatic or economic,

.

6.2.3 Livestock issues Livestock has three major issues in the context of FNS and climate change. First, this is an essential source of protein and nutrition and more so in the war against malnutrition in the poorer countries. Secondly, livestock development is likely to be impacted adversely due to climate change and associated factors such as heat stress, availability of fodder and the like. Thirdly it is a major emitter of GHGs. Reconciling the three therefore may become a major issue in planning for food and nutrition security in such countries.

There is one other issue related to livestock system. In some countries livestock is a major form of agriculture as in certain African nations, Australia and New Zealand as well as in USA. In many developing countries including Bangladesh it is a mixed farming system in general where farms keep a few heads which is used in the farm for draught power but also for dairy. The main source of feed in the two systems are quite different, in case of former rangelands and grasslands, in the second case mainly crop residues. Climate change impacts are likely to vary except for certain direct ones of biological nature (such as effect of heat stress on milk output) in the two cases, particularly in problems of supply of feed or the changes in the nature and supply of feed. The literature is generally limited on the mixed farming system we are most interested in. Hence the review in this part will be quite brief.

but mixes of them which vary from context to context

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Bailey, Froggatt and Wellesley (2014) prepared for Chatham House based on a world-wide on-line survey a report on how people respond to lowering of meat and dairy consumption as one of the measures to lower GHGs. The report has mentioned the unhealthy dietary patterns (also referred to in the literature above) in many of the major meat consuming countries. Food and nutrition security therefore may not be in conflict with mitigation attempts in livestock sector in such cases. The message for food and nutrition security planning in poor countries is therefore that it would be better to manage livestock product output, supply and consumption rather carefully to avoid the problems from the beginning.

One of the major reviews on climate change and livestock is that by Thornton et al (2009). The review is comprehensive but apparently is more attuned as usual towards the large scale livestock systems and economies, not the subsistence-oriented types. In fact, there appears to be hardly anything related to the mixed livestock systems.

In a review again in a later year Thornton and Herrero (2014) were more certain about the changes that might happen to mixed crop-livestock systems in developing countries to the extent that they proposed various adaptation measures. Yet, it seems that the clear cut idea of how far the livestock system will be under threat and how much productivity might fall still seems more qualitative rather than quantitative.

West (2003) had been one of the early studies on effect of heat stress and by implication the impact of temperature rise on dairy production. He observed as is now well known that rising temperature leads to lower dry matter intake by livestock and leads to various metabolic changes ultimately giving rise to lower productivity and in case of dairy cattle lower milk production.

Nardone et al (2010) examined again based on review of literature what might be the impact of climate change on livestock and its productivity. The general idea may be summed up in the authors' words as follows:

“Increase in temperatures causes severe damage to the physiology, the metabolism and to the healthiness of animals. Modification of existing regimes of precipitation and the increase of aridity will have repercussions on the availability of feedstuff for animals. The increased difficulty in livestock production in the world will correspond to the increasing needs in animal products. The answers of the livestock systems to these requisites will be diverse. The grazing and mixed rain-fed systems, which count on the availability of pastures and farm crops, will be the most damaged by climate change. The positive trend both in the number of heads and in productivity that we observed in recent decades could slowdown or even become negative, if an effort is not made to adapt."

Given such observations as well as those by West (2003), it appears that livestock production in Bangladesh is likely to face severe tests in the future under climate change, particularly in dairy production. Later in the section on Bangladesh literature on livestock

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issues, we will try to review what is exactly known so far on interaction between climate change and variability and livestock productivity and their pathways.

6.2.4 Fisheries and climate change On fisheries, there seems to be not much of a concern related to direct changes as such in temperature or precipitation. The worries appear to be concentrated mainly in case of large scale marine fisheries (FAO: 2009) due to ocean acidification. For inland capture fisheries and aquaculture there may be both positive and negative impacts depending on situation and as indirect results of climate change and variability. Thus more extensive flooding by extending the seasonal flood plain may increase fish production while drought and lower river flows and low replenishment of wet lands may lower such output. The ultimate result will depend on specific circumstances. Similarly sea level rise, salinity ingress and storms may put coastal inland fisheries at disadvantage. Thus the exact losses and gains must be understood on a case by case basis rather than a generalized global idea of impacts as happens in case of say crops or to livestock.

More recently an attempt has been made to understand the role of inland capture and aquaculture on food security (Youn et al: 2014). Despite the problem of information gaps a few critical points related to nutrition has also been brought to the fore. The replacement of wild captured fishes by farmed fishes may have apparently been successful in terms of availability but the nutritional quality may have been compromised as documented based on case studies including from Bangladesh in that the protein and other mineral contents of farmed fishes are not as plentiful as for wild fishes.

6.3.1 Crop yield and productiona. Climatic variability and crop output: A major recent research is the one edited by Biswas and Maniruzzaman (2014) which contains a few chapters written by various authors on various stresses in crop production due to climate change. The general approach was to choose a drought prone area in the North-west Bangladesh and a salinity prone area in the South-west Bangladesh. The basic research was to find out how climatic variability had led to changes in rice output and productivity in aman and aus seasons. Interestingly boro rice which is grown under irrigated condition in dry period was not investigated. The stressors chosen were temperature, rainfall, water availability, pests and pathogens attack and also adaptive behaviour of farmers to some of these stressors.

First the future trends were investigated based on downscaling from global models (Sarker, Chowdhury, Saiful and Nemes: 2014). The basic findings are that temperature rise by the end of 21st century on the basis of chosen scenario may be up to 3 degrees and to

0 035 C in the drought prone areas. In the saline zone the rise may be slightly less to 33 C. While rainfall will remain largely unaltered in seasonal distributions but over-all 1-4% rise in total may be expected.

6.3 Bangladesh Literature

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Next the water availability is modeled (Ullah, Hassan Ahmed and Nagothu: 2014). The main result is that there is likely to be an increase of water flow of 9-10% in the study regions during monsoon but a reduction of 13-15% in the two regions during the dry season. Consequently, the implications of climate change along with water availability changes were considered to find out the implications for rice yield (Ullah, Rashid, Sarker, Islam and Xenarios: 2014). Their modeling indicates that T. aus yield may rise somewhat in both drought prone and saline areas during 2050s due to higher rainfall. But later by 2080s may fall by 10-11% in the drought prone areas due to higher evaportranspiration but T. aus yield would remain largely unchanged in the other area. T aman yield would fall up to 9% in saline zones by 2050s and by up to 11% in short term future in the drought-prone areas.

Temperature and rainfall have been used by Moniruzzaman and Biswas (2014) using a regression analysis for understanding their effects separately and also for maximum and minimum temperature along with rainfall together for T. aman. We discuss the last mentioned combined exercise. Unfortunately the authors have not given any indication of the statistical significance of regression coefficients for their estimated equations for either

2the drought prone or the saline zone. Nor have they given any R figures making it difficult to assess the statistical properties and significance of their estimates. For whatever these are worth, the results are as follows:

Maximum temperature has a positive sign in both drought prone and saline areas but the effect seems to be much lower in the latter case; minimum temperature has a negative effect on rice yield in Rajshahi (drought-prone) but positive sign in Barisal (saline) zone. Rainfall has a negative coefficient in saline areas, but a positive sign in drought prone areas. To understand some of these results it may be noted that minimum temperature is critical in Rajshahi as its rise lowers moisture during later (flowering) period of Aman and thus leads to sterility while more rainfall during T Aman leads to water logging in Barisal reducing yield.

The authors have cited critical temperatures for sterility which are for, Rice : 35, Wheat: 30; Chickpea: 35, Pea: 30; Mustard:27; Mung bean: 40; Tomato 32 degrees Celsius. Some of these values also provide ideas regarding the possible adaptation in terms of cropping pattern changes. For example, the switch to mango gardening in the drought-prone zone is in response to both water scarcity and higher profitability but may ultimately lead to lower production of other crops at least in the later stages of the garden; in earlier stages, intercropping continues. But more importantly, when given the proper information farmers switched to less water demanding varieties and crops such as chickpeas, wheat and mustard in dry season. Once they practiced the cultivation of new crops, farmers continued with the cropping patterns with lower water demand.

Amin, Zhang and Yang (2015) used national level time series data to find out the influence of temperature, rainfall, humidity and sunshine hours on yield and cropping area. The authors used national level average climatic variables for specific growing periods and aggregated HYV and local variety yield. The data were coarse, but the results did not come out as any surprise.

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For Aus except for rainfall, all had positive coefficients but only humidity had a weakly significant one, the rest were insignificant. For Aman, except for humidity all climatic factors had negative signs and max temperature and humidity had weakly significant and rainfall coefficient significant at 5%. For Boro, except for maximum temperature, all climatic factors had positive coefficients of which maximum, minimum temperatures and sunshine had weakly significant signs. What all these mean is that in most cases climatic factors came out to be of limited influence if at all, something contrary to general observations and what had been found by others. Possibly the way the data had been prepared had something to do with these results.

Drought is often a major problem in crop production. CDMP (2013) modelled the climate scenarios and estimated drought situation based on historical data, used several climate change scenarios and tried to find out the impact of drought on yield based on DSSAT models of several popular varieties of rice. The authors found that drought invariably lowers yield although there are variations across varieties. The model result suggests an overall decrease in yield ranging from less than 10% to 40% or more depending on variety from present yield condition in vulnerable hotspots in year 2030 and 2050 for BR 11 and BR 14.

Salinity impacts were investigated by Baten, Seal and Lisa (2015) who tried to physically measure salinity in several places in the South-west Bangladesh and find out how the crops may be behaving in terms of yield under moderate and high salinity. Their results showed that for crops such as onions, radish, potato and sweet potato some 20-30 percent of yield may be lost due to salinity. In fact almost 100% of farmers confirmed some yield loss while others complained about physical size of crops, stunted plants, and various diseases which may have contributed to the over-all yield loss.

Given the deleterious effects of salinity, it is imperative to find out which areas are suitable for which crops under present salinity levels. Based on large scale surveys and data collection and their analysis Sinha, Singh & Singh (2014) have estimated that about 0.6 million ha out of total 0.87 million ha salinity affected area is suitable for growing the salinity resistant varieties. The maps and other generated information have helped the Dept. of Agriculture Extension (DAE) of Bangladesh in large scale dissemination of seeds of the salinity-tolerant rice varieties in different districts during 2012 and 2013.

b. Adaptation: What interventions are actually likely to work better in adapting to climate change impacts in agriculture? Xenarios et al (2013) tried to find out in the context of two areas in Barisal in SW (salinity prone) and Rajshahi (drought-prone) based on expert views and using a multi-criteria analysis. For Barisal, predictably experts suggested a salinity-tolerant variety while for Rajashahi, deep tubewell irrigation was recommended.

To the best of knowledge, there was no independent third party evaluation of the results of the intervention.

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Are there options for inter-culturing rice and fish so that need for subsistence and cash are both satisfied while providing better nutrition through protein from fish? Dey, Spielman, Haque, Rahman and Valmonte-Santos (2013) have tried to find out how profitable these are. Their paper draws on a study of ricefish systems conducted in 20102011 in two key freshwater ricefish producing districts, Mymensingh and Comilla. The study indicates that in addition to concurrent ricefish systems, alternating ricefish systems and collectively managed alternating systems offer considerable potential for increasing overall agricultural productivity and farm incomes in Bangladesh.

Results also show that a semi-intensive and collectively managed alternating ricefish system provides opportunity for small farmers to participate in a profitable and commercial aquaculture enterprise without losing rice production.

c. Technical and socio-economic factors for understanding climate change impacts on crop production: So far there seems to be not much by way of understanding of the interplay of technical and socio-economic factors in analysis of climate change and variability impact on crop output. Ashraf (2013) tried to remedy that for which he used multiple regression analysis. His regression results estimated on a time series of a period of 38 years show that rainfall and its square term both have negative and statistically significant consequences for productivity of rice in the country. Coefficient of temperature is negative but that of its square term is positive. Neither is statistically significant. Carbon di-oxide concentration has a positive and significant effect. The overall explanatory power is 30%.

The results indicate that the more rainfall occurs, the adverse effects on rice productivity becomes proportionately more. For temperature the signs of the coefficients indicate a negative effect which increasingly gets flattened. Carbon enrichment has the expected effect.

Mottaleb, Gumma, Mishra, & Mohanty (2015) also did an econometric analysis but this time based on household data from the Household Income and Expenditure Surveys in 2005 and 2010. The output of rice was regressed against various household characteristics as well as the incidence of flood and drought (expressed as share of rice area affected by drought and floods) along with direct climatic data such as monthly average maximum temperature and yearly total rainfall.

The direct climate variables had no statistically significant coefficients for any of the rice seasons output. But yearly total rainfall always had a negative coefficient while temperature had negative coefficients only for Aus, but these were positive for Aman. Given these the incidence of drought and flood had deleterious and statistically significant effects on rice production but for drought only in case of Aman and for flood only in case of Aus when both are included in the regression equation. When entered separately, both had negative and significant coefficients. In fact, as indicated, one percent rise in area under drought results in a fall in Aman production per household by 1.4 mt. For Aus the impact of

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drought is a fall of rice production of nearly 700 kg per household, i.e., about one half of the loss for Aman. No relative figures were given which could have been used to estimate output elasticities of temperature and rainfall.

Mishra et al (2015) also used HIES data for 3 years but their emphasis was on whether abiotic stress leads to production inefficiency. The main results are that there is significant inefficiency in rice production that rainfall has a positive and significant coefficient and that drought has a negative and significant coefficient. Interestingly a cross variable of rainfall and drought has a significant and positive coefficient indicating that rainfall brings in positive effects in case of drought. More interesting than these results are, however, the estimates of technical efficiency and its determinants.

Most farmers have a technical efficiency score between 0.25 and 0. 75 indicating that there is an enormous scope for raising efficiency in rice production. Indeed, if the average farmers could be as efficient as the most efficient one, the total output of the average farmer could rise by 40% or thereabout. Since the mean efficiency is 57%, 43% of potential output does not materialize due to inefficiency. Had this loss been prevented, this would have meant a tremendous boost to availability component of food security. And it is the abiotic stresses of maximum temperature and rainfall which are mainly to be blamed for the inefficiency. Between these two, maximum temperature is more problematic as a 1% increase in average maximum temperature is likely to lower production efficiency by 0.69%. For rainfall, the reduction for a 1% rise in rainfall would be 0.07%.

Very recently another econometric analysis of panel data using district level information for 7 consecutive years beginning from 2007 have been made by Asaduzzaman and Anik (2016). The results in general seems to be broadly in line with the scientific views described in the first set of papers contained in Biswas and Maniruzzaman (2014). Their results may be summarised as follows:

The effect of maximum temperature on Boro yield is not robust. Average temperature has significant positive effect in both the models for HYV Boro contrary to expectation. In the linear model for the total Boro production also, temperature has positive and significant coefficient. Most interestingly the dummy for crossing critical temperature has also positive coefficients for all the forms of production and yield function, except in the model for Boro hybrid. Several explanations may perhaps be given. Probably the temperature rise was not for a long enough period to affect flowering. Also, the generally positive impact pethaps can be explained if we take irrigation into account. As Boro is wholly irigation-dependent, a rise in temperature is likely to result in more of irrigation probably nullifying the possible negative effects of temperature.

Unlike in boro season the, temperature has more pronounced effect in the other two seasons. The variable has negative effect on total aman yield. But for local transplanted aman, high temperature increases yield and production. It should be noted that for aman in none of the years under consideration maximum temperature during flowering crossed

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critical temperature as aman flowering occurs during monsoon and hence the dummy variable could not be used.

Among the three rice growing seasons, maximum temperature is an issue of most concern for the aus season. This is not surprising as aus is grown during the summer and wholly rain-dependent. Irrespective of variety maximum temperature has negative effect on aus yield and production. Government is trying to encourage aus cultivation in the coastal regions where due to salinity boro production is not possible. Due to increasing temperature farmers may not properly benefit from such government initiatives.

The rainfall variable has negative effect on production and yield in aman season. As aman is grown during the monsoon excess rainfall may destroy the production. In the aus season rainfall has positive effect at least in models where the effect is significant. Traditionally farmers are used to rely mostly on rainfall during aus and hardly do irrigation. Rainfall in the summer help in production and yield of aus rice particularly as to avoid damages from flood. Aus is generally cultivated on higher elevation land which may also cause water stress if adequate rainfall is not there. But the effect of rainfall on boro rice is mixed and do not have any clear pattern probably because of irrigation which may or may not have been adequate in all cases. Inadequate irrigation will lead to positive effects of rainfall while adequate irigation facilities may lead to negative effect of rainfall if it is higher than ususal.

The study results indicate that increase in saline area have negative effects in case of production and yield of both aman and boro rice. But in case of aus rice, the results are ambiguous. With increasing salinity yield increases though production decreases except for local variety.

Small farmers' role and contribution has always been an issue of keen interest in developing countries agriculture (Schultz: 1964; Adams, 1986; Nair, 1979; Lipton, 1968). The present results in aman season contradicts with Schultz's small but efficient hypothesis. In aman, yield decreases as small farmers' share to total land increases. The relationship is significant for all the three varieties grown in aman season. But small farmers' share do not have any significant effect when it comes to total production in the season. In the aus and boro season the variable positively affects yield, except in the yield function for local variety in the boro season.

Lastly it may be mentioned that time always has a positive and in most cases a statistically significant coefficient. That means with time farmers are learning and applying the inputs in better balance.

6.3.2 Fisheries and food securitya. Climate change impact: Fernandes et al's (undated) is one of the few attempts which tried to quantify fisheries losses due to climate change though only for marine fisheries. Under the A1B scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, the potential catch is likely to fall by less than 10% on the whole, but for some of the major species such as Hilsha, the catch

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might fall by 25% by 2060 under sustainable management. But if overexploitation is allowed, the fall may be much more drastic, by 95% by 2060 compared to the BAU scenario. For Bombay Duck a relatively inexpensive fish and consumed by low income group of people, the falls will be much less drastic, about 20% under sustainable management.

b. Project impacts: Belton, Ahmed and Murshed-e-Jahan (2014) while analysisg culture fishery tried to shed some light on that on two aspects of food security, first as a livelihood option and thus fostering economic as well physical access and secondly providing scopes for consuming a nutritious food. While the type of aquaculture varied, regarding food security two points stand out. First, much of the employment generated in aquaculture was at the expense of employment in crop agriculture and while fish consumption from own production particularly for commercial farming was high, the over-all consumption of fish was not that high meaning that own production substituted for market-based consumption. Such findings if typical does not bode well for ultimate food security in terms of access or nutrition except perhaps for those who are able to buy them in the market. Note that it is anecdotically known that pangasius (Pangus) which was much costlier before has now become much less costly and has become almost a poor man's fish.

Murshed-E-Jahan and Pemsl (2011) utilized 4-years of panel data from 260 treatment and 126 control farmers the former being involved in an integrated agriculture-aquaculture training. In the first year some of the project group received a small amount as credit for immediate purchases of inputs but not in later years. Econometric and statistical analyses of the information indicated that the project farmers increased their efficiency of production and by the end year nearly all farmers achieved an efficiency score of 80% or more. Over-all the findings appear to indicate that training had a major role in raising farm income in an integrated agriculture-aquaculture system and that led to better food and nutrition security.

6.3.3 Livestock issuesThere is hardly any Bangladesh literature which examines the relationship between livestock rearing, service and product output, consumption and nutrition, not to speak of analysis of the impact of climate change. It is thus very difficult to definitively assess how livestock output might change in future under climate change.

Whatever guesses one can make is based on those technical issues particularly of heat stress, the livestock demand for water and the consequences in terms of productivity which is expected to fall as discussed earlier. Such falls in productivity and output obviously will mean a lower availability from domestic production, lower income for livestock households (restricting economic access to food). Also as availability falls and prices rise, physical access may also fall and this may lower consumption of livestock food products including dairy. The last one may lower nutrition particularly of children.

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6.4 Food Security and Nutritional impact of Climatic and Non-climatic Factors6.4.1. Food Security in General and as Affected by Climatic shocks a. One of the recent and very comprehensive report linking extreme climatic shocks to food insecurity and outcomes in terms of child and maternal under and malnutrition have been prepared by Béné et al (2015). Employing quite sophisticated modelling and taking account of real life extreme events of flood, drought, cyclones and salinity ingress they have consistently found in general statistically significant and negative impacts of one or other indicator of malnutrition (stunting, wasting and undernutrition) for children in general through price effects which takes several months to completely work out. Also they find that children's nutrition is protected as much s possible even sacrificing mothers' nutrition. There are also ecological redressal mechanisms such as greater availability and consequently consumption of fish during large scale flood. What the study thought to be less understandable results include the increased dietary diversity at such times of extreme shock and also the erratic behaviour of stunting in some cases.

The second case perhaps cannot be answered without clinical analyses. But the first one perhaps can be understood again through an ecological lens which is that as normal food becomes scarce people try to eat less common but nonetheless edibles found in the area nearby which might be less severely affected by climatic shocks.

Coping strategies, such as eating fewer meals per day, eating less at each meal, skipping meals, eating less preferred foods, and decreasing dietary diversity were consistently listed as post-disaster coping strategies employed to bridge the household to better times. But the respondents also made clear that children are usually given preferential treatment to ensure their health and survival, being given the most nutritious food and being the last to make sacrifices in relation to meals. Women, on the other hand, make the biggest sacrifices, being the most likely to go hungry and not eat. Nutrition was not considered a priority by the respondent after disaster. Nutritious food is available in the market not long after, but access is hindered by lack of money to purchase nutritious food.

b. Mottaleb, Mohanty, Hoang, and Rejesus (2013) have not exactly analysed nutritional implications directly in the wake of a hazard but people's behaviour regarding food and other expenditures in such a situation. They used official Household Income and Expenditure Survey information for 3 years from districts affected by cyclone Aila in 2008 to find out how the respondents have changed their behaviour regarding food and non-food expenditures such as those on children's education and health.

The results of analysis indicate that the incidence of cyclone did affect negatively food, non-food and health expenditures and statistically significantly. An interesting finding was the role of education of the household head. His/her education had statistically significant and positive independent impact on food, non-food, health and education expenditures. For other dependent variables the relationship was not significant. On the other hand while family size had a positive and significant impact on food and non-food expenditures, the existence of children had negative effects on all which were also significant. And

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controlled for all other factors, female headed households raised their levels of food and non-food expenditures compared to male-headed ones. The impact on health and education were not significant, however.

c. Kobir et al (2012) tried to find out the small farmers' contribution to food security through a small survey in 3 villages in Rajbari district. The study indicates that only 45% of farmers think that they are food secure from the view point of annual dietary needs, the rest are food insecure. Farm size and annual family income were positively correlated with food security but family size, cropping intensity and annual dietary needs had negative correlation. Other variables such as age, credit received, education, farming information exposure showed insignificant effect. The major constrains as reported by small farmers in achieving food security were inadequate access to land, inadequate training along with limited information on improved farming techniques, and insufficient credit. The analytical results and the demand by farmers do not seem to agree well, possibly because of limited data and the method used.

d. Uddin (2010) tried to find out how marginal farmers fare in areas prone to storm surges in the coastal region. However, the sample chosen was rather small, only 30. The analysis indicates extent of food insecurity to be 57%, rather similar to Kobir's (2012). Only 13% claimed to be fully food secure. Coping strategies which were self-imposed included decreasing number and portion of daily meals, collection and consumption of wild food, offering labour services at rather low rate, disinvestment of fixed and movable items, borrowing at high rates of interest and cultivation of short duration crops. Those in extreme conditions also resorted to begging.

e. In Chapter IV we indicated that female-headed households might be at much more disadvantageous position compared to others because of their generally weak economic situation. While the sample size was small, a recent study by Akram (2014) supports the hypothesis well. The narratives of women in the study clearly shows the extremely grave food insecurity that such women suffer from. One of the reasons of their poor state is due to their lack of access to productive resources such as land which may often be denied to them by their in-laws after death of the spouse and often due to social and "religious" sanctions against women, particularly younger ones working out of home. The coping strategies they employ include all kinds of deprivation such as smaller meal size, restricting non-essential expenses (even not buying spices) and non-food expenses, relying on wild and less common food, foraging and the like. Not simply that they are food insecure at present, the problem becomes intergenerational as children in such households often work in richer households as domestic help for food. What the narratives indicate is that such women are totally disempowered by society.

f. We intend to introduce another issue which we discussed first in Chapter II regarding the deterioration in quality of processed food due to warmer climate. This may happen particularly in households which may not have enough access to energy for cooking fresh meals more than once a day or for warming the cold meals properly. This is likely to hold true for generally poor and more specifically energy-poor households. This aspect of

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deteriorating quality of processed food and its adverse nutritional and health impact do not seem to have attracted attention yet in the literature.

6.5.1 Some introductory remarksBefore we discuss a few of the vulnerability and adaptation literature, a point or two needs to be made to make the reader aware that there may be quite some disagreement on what constitutes adaptation and what not. Lobell (2014) particularly decry that much of the literature on adaptation at least in crop cultivation possibly will not qualify as adaptation to future climate change. The problem with such type of reasoning is that people has to adapt to whatever they are experiencing now and just can not sit tight thinking that they will act when the probable adverse impact actually happens. While this Consultant does not wish to be engaged in this debate now, the fact remains that from practical point of view such philosophical thinking may carry little weight. If any action whether one calls it adaptation or not reduces people's vulnerabilities to climatic variability or to climate related events now may be categorized as adaptation.

a. Vulnerability of Bangladesh agriculture has been analysed from various angles. As the discussion in this chapter shows, there are many physical aspects of it. How to adapt to such vulnerability in crop production is by and large known. And BCCSAP (2008 and 2009) has clearly spelt out what may be done. It also suggests how this may be done, though not in any detail. Faroque, Asaduzamman and Hossain (2013) have tried to make these issues a little clearer. One particular area to which they have drawn attention is that there is a major gap in yields of even demonstration plots and the farmers filed because of the inappropriate adoption of the technologies. The yield gap in case of rice is from about 25 to 40% or so. For non-rice crops, except for Mung for which the gap is the lowest at 9%, the highest is for lentil at about 50%. For mustard it is 25% or so. Even if these gaps can be closed by at least a half, this will mean a substantial advancement in availability including those of vegetable, protein rich food and also edible oil essential for a better nutrition. Higher supply and availability is expected to lower prices and thus raise access of the poorer sections to these nutrition-dense food. It may be noted that as discussed earlier other authors also drew attention to low efficiency in production and the over-all low productivity of Bangladesh agriculture compared to other countries.

b. While global climate change has been analysed from various perspectives, the manifestations are often local. Hence what needs to be done at home should receive attention. Unfortunately as Brown and Kshirsagar (2015) argue often this is not the case. They have analysed short run impacts on local prices of local weather disturbances as well as of international price shocks based on data from 51 countries. Their results indicate that while only 9% of local market prices were influenced by international prices, local weather disturbances were responsible for 20% of those changes. Only 4 percent was due to their combined effects. This calls for greater attention to what is happening locally weather-wise rather than focusing attention to international price shocks. Obviously economic access to

6.5 Vulnerability and Adaptation

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food is going to be affected more by the local weather anomalies and comparatively speedily than by pass-through of international price shocks.

a. There is a general hypotheses that women's agency and empowerment are necessary for better food and nutrition security in the household in general and for children in particular. And it is also hypothesised that as women are involved in home gardening, training in such activities along with nutrition awareness may help achieve several goals of women's empowerment, and food and nutrition security. This was tested by Patalagsa, Schreinemachers, Begum & Begum (2015). Two hundred eighty five women who received training in home gardening and 171 who did not were approached for information on their activities and situation regarding decision-making.

b. But did home gardening really confer any benefits in terms of nutrition? Apparently it did. That home gardening may be especially significant in preventing certain kinds of nutritional deficiency has been demonstrated by Campbell et al (2011). They have found that while Vitamin A supplementation was advocated against night blindness among children, in those cases where this was not the case (children did not receive such supplementation), existence of home garden still helped in lowering incidence of night blindness implying that home garden food products helped in accessing Vitamin A from such food.

c. That dietary diversity is important has been demonstrated quite early by Ahmed et al (1998). Investigating dietary patterns of school girls they found that their diets are highly inadequate from nutritional point of view and thus they suffered from several nutritional deficiencies. Family incomes and education of parents were major factors behind such dietary patterns and deficiencies. Harris-Fry et al (2015) similarly find that wealth and literacy of women along with their market access improves dietary diversity of women and thus their nutritional security. Mohsena, Taylor and Goto (2010) investigated the factors that explain child nutritional status. Their results clearly indicate that possession of assets by women is a major factor, more so than poverty indicators. Also importantly, there is a clear inverse relationship between mother's education and child stunting and underweight although the pathways of impact were not clearly established.

d. Jost et al (2015) used case studies including one in Bangladesh to find out how climate smart agriculture might work in practice. Among several of its findings the one on women stand out for the limited effectiveness of the innovation which though highlighted women's adaptive capacity, was limited in understanding women's vulnerability. Thus one may not say exactly how far such interventions, even if well-intentioned, might work in favour of women because of apparent misdesigning.

6.6 Women's Agency and Empowerment and Factors Influencing Food Security and Nutrition

The results indicated that there had been improvement in women's control over resources, income and increased their directly productive time.

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e. One of the best arguments for women's empowerment for better food security has recently been provided by Sraboni et al (2014). Using a nationally representative sample of households and measuring women's empowerment as well as using its components separately they have clearly established the case for women's empowerment as a major force to raise food security status of the household in terms of calories and diversity of diet. This also appears to be true in general for the components of empowerment but more so for control over resources including assets. Of course the inheritance laws of the two major religious groups in the country are not exactly tuned at the moment to realise this any time soon. But awareness raising perhaps can help at least for the moment.

a. In Chapter II we speculated about the external shock effects on domestic food security and nutrition. A case study for Bangladesh tried to find out if global crises do indeed pass through the domestic food security scene (WFP: 2010). The financial crisis of 2009 was transformed into price shocks and volatility and some of those shocks also were felt by Bangladesh. Another route of transmission was the flow of remittances to remittance dependent districts such as Sylhet which was included in household samples and FGDs. The respondents were visited at least twice in the beginning in March 2009 and again in March 2010 during which the international forces played out through Bangladesh system.

Livelihood losses were reported by many. The most frequently reported estimate of unemployment increase within a year (March 2009-March 2010) was 10-15 percent. In general, job cuts and reduced job opportunities are reported as the main reasons for the increase of unemployment rate.

The households receiving remittances reported deriving a smaller share of their incomes from remittances as opposed to 12 months ago. Compared to March 2009, focus group discussants described a slightly different pattern of domestic migration. Domestic migration seems to have increased for daily labourers and tea estate casual labourers mainly because of new seasonal jobs and income opportunities such as construction and infrastructure works.

The share of expenditure on food in total expenditures increased slightly from 57 to about 60% between March 2009 and March 2010. This increase is in line with the overall increase in food inflation reflected in the macro-economic changes. Casual labourers reported relatively higher increases in food expenditure (up to 10 percent) compared to other livelihood groups.

In response to food price increases and income losses, food consumption had been adjusted away from protein sources and dairies. About 2/3 of the focus groups reported a decrease in the consumption of meat, fish, eggs, milk and fruits by 25-50 percent during the preceding 12 months since the beginning of crisis. The concerned focus groups reported an increase in prices of meat, fish and fruits, in addition to the rice price increase. Consumption of vegetables remained stable due to increased seasonal availability,

6.7 External Factors - Trade, Global Price Shocks

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resulting in price reduction. The tendency is to maintain the quantity of cereal consumed while foregoing quality. As a coping mechanisms apart from dietary changes, people also tried to diversify their income sources by involving more family members, in particular women and children, in income earning activities (mainly casual labour).

b. That trade could be one driver of food security particularly at times of major price uncertainties and that trade regime has to be more transparent have been argued by several authors. In case of Bangladesh, the lessons of the 2007-08 price shocks and international trade bans by several countries on rice may therefore be analysed as a kind of lesson regarding how to handle a crisis. Dorosh and Rashid (2013) have tried to do that for India-Bangladesh trade over several years since 2000. The results of their modeling was that increase in private stocks equivalent to a mere 2 weeks' of normal consumption had been able to create a surge in prices and thus curtailed access to food for many and thus became a food security issue. Furthermore a timely import of 300 thousand mt of rice would have averted the crisis. The policy implication is that careful planning and timely intervention along with unrestricted trade would have been able to see Bangladesh through the crisis in 2007-08.

c. Even when there is no extreme shock, and whether or not trade make the shocks more bearable in terms of food security, there is the likelihood that agricultural output will be facing a challenge in the near future, say 2030. Hertel, Burke and Lobell (2010) argue that there would be various kinds of destabilizing effects of low productivity in which poverty incidence will change for some segments of society while it might be better for others and the effects are likely to vary geographically between nations. The food security status thus may change but not uni-directionally as rising prices will affect different groups differently.

A lot of issues have come up for discussion in the sections above in this chapter. Though we cannot say that we have been exhaustive, as far as the literature allow we have tried to examine the various issues that have come up for understanding food and nutrition security in general and also some of its other dimensions particularly related to non-climatic factors. Indeed, one may say that the climatic factors are likely only to exacerbate the present inequities, insecurities and deprivation because of the existing socioeconomic-cultural-legal practices and/or norms. Challenging them for lessening or eradicating these insecurities therefore cannot be uni-directionally aimed at climatic issues alone but rather understanding how these climatic factors interact with the existing non-climatic influences on human behavior that should be the essence of any effective intervention for redressing the inequity and deprivation. The ray of hope is that, yet, within such a gloomy environment, time and again globally and also in Bangladesh the issue of food security and nutritional status of children appear to be positively related to women's education, agency and empowerment.

6.8 A Summing Up

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Chapter-7POLICIES, PROGRAMMES,

INTERVENTIONS AND AGENDA FOR ACTION

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Policies

The earlier chapters have discussed at length the issues related to food security and its three elements including utilization and nutrition both in the global context as viewed by AR5 and also by others mainly later but also before AR5. There are very few studies or reports which examine together the three broad elements of agriculture (including crop production, fisheries and livestock), food and nutrition security and climate change impacts. This chapter will try to see if this is also true in case of respective policies that these are disjointed from each other or at best partly considered together. From this discussion we shall move to some of the progarmmes and interventions both globally and in Bangladesh and as far as literature allow try to judge their efficacy. Based on these and prior analyses we indicate the areas of actions by way of general recommendations. Finally we bring in the issue of EU's MIP and discuss how the relevant component on food security may be fine-tuned for future action within the general set of recommendations. In fact we go further. We try to point out at some juncture all the three sub-programmes of EU' MIP may perhaps be partly joined or be supportive of each other all with the final objective of ensuring food security for the poor and the poorest. First we look up policies.

There are many policies related to agriculture in the country. There are also policies related to climate change and food security and nutrition. Agricultural and related policies have been examined intensively for their sensitivity to climate change issues (Asaduzzaman and Munir: 2013). The general conclusion is that save for a few exceptions these do not. Even the New Agricultural Policy of 2013 mentioned climate change almost in passing and devoted just 2/3 lines to it.

Are the agricultural policies sensitive to food security and nutritional security? Talukder et al (undated) reviewed these policies and concluded that the agricultural policies are concerned mainly with the production issues and not with the other elements of food security, namely access and utilization and nutrition. But at least on one point there appears to be an advancement which calls for diversification to high value and nutrient rich crops. How this will be done has not been made explicit, though. In the 7th Plan, some good noises have been made about some of these issues.

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34 By policies we include actual policy statements, strategies, programmes, plans, laws which in one way or another determine the relevant activities.

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One common theme that is repeated is the development of climate stress tolerant varieties. Quite fortuitously certain varieties which were under development for quite long had at least been released. Some of these have salinity-tolerance, submergence tolerance and drought tolerance capacities to some extent. But how these are performing in the field? One hardly finds any information about such performance in the public space. Also as we have seen in earlier chapters it is temperature which is going to be a major concern. We do not know if any heat tolerant variety is being or has been developed.

The Seventh Plan calls for development of bio-fortified food. Indeed at least one rice variety, BR 62, which has higher zinc content has been developed and released very recently for adoption. Bio-fortification for other nutrients need to be geared up. Unfortunately, it remains an open question regarding how well-equipped in terms of manpower and resources the NARS (National Agricultural Research System) is. Studies have indicated that at least in the recent past the real flow of resources to agricultural research had been falling (Asdauzzaman et al: 2010b). In any case the fact remains that there does not seem to be much awareness regarding development of more nutritious vegetables. There has been development of new varieties but whether these are of better nutritive value is hardly known.

There is some idea of supporting home gardening by women. Unfortunately to the best of our knowledge women who tend these gardens are hardly served by the extension services. In any case, home gardening also need to be much more productive and diverse than it is now. How far research is geared towards such development is not known.

What about the nutrition related policies? Do these take into consideration issues of availability from agricultural production and income and livelihood influencing access? The NNS funded by the WB which is about to end has not included the issues of availability (from agricultural production) or access (through livelihood or market interventions). The draft National Nutrition Policy of 2014, however recognizes the need for multi-sectoral activities and their coordination. But without a Plan of Action it is difficult to understand how this will be realized.

The Seventh Plan similarly acknowledges the roles of other sectors in ensuring nutrition and these have been listed. However what the roles and responsibilities of these sectors or ministries/agencies are yet to be spelled out. In any case it is not clear how far these roles and responsibilities have been accepted by ministries other than the Planning Commission particularly as the ideas about these roles and responsibilities are the brainchild of certain development partners. How far these are realizable have to be examined further.

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We may now examine the climate related policies. There is no climate policy in the country but there is the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) which was first formulated in 2008 and subsequently minimally revised in 2009. It has six thematic pillars, the first being Food Security, Social Protection and Health. The programmes under this pillar calls for development of stress tolerant varieties, cropping systems and resilience in fisheries and livestock. This pillar also chalks out programmes for livelihood security in ecologically fragile areas as well as for vulnerable groups including women. No clear cut reference to nutrition was made. But the health programmes can easily accommodate nutritional projects. As the updating of the BCCSAP is overdue, it may be the occasion when among others nutrition may be more explicitly accounted for.

The Sixth Plan promised the implementation of certain projects aligned with the BCCSAP. Apparently none of these were implemented. The Seventh Plan has proposed a much more modest set of actions and there is hardly anything related to nutrition or agriculture.

To the best of our knowledge, the best laid out policy in terms of food security with attention to all its 3 elements as well as climate change risks in attaining them, though not exactly related to nutrition is the Country Investment Plan (CIP) 2011 for food security that was designed by several ministries coordinated by the Ministry of Food.

CIP which is aligned with the BCCSAP tries to internalize the impact of climate change on food production and thus leading to issues on access and utilization problems. It links actions related to food security with actions on climate change and water issues. For ensuring the sustainable food security, the CIP chalked out 12 programmes, of which the first programme is titled as “Sustainable and Diversified Agriculture through Integrated Research and Extension” deals with climate change directly. Three interventions have been laid out in this programme with the aim of food diversification and coping with climate change impacts. The interventions are as follows:

· Enhance research & knowledge generation and adoption to increase agricultural productivity and diversity in a sustainable manner

· Improve extension services to propagate knowledge & practices, supported by community based experimentation & learning and indigenous knowledge

· Promote the development of responses to adapt agricultural systems to climate change

To the best our knowledge till date there is no third party and independent evaluation of the achievements of the programme. This is necessary for learning from the successes and failures and course corrections if necessary.

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7.3 Programmes, Interventions and Outcomesa. The Government with the support of the World Bank started a nutrition intervention programme called Bangladesh National Nutrition Services (BNNS) with the objective of making nutrition focused intervention through public agencies such as the Directorate of Health Services and the Directorate of Family Planning. The project life was initially for 5 years beginning July 2011 and ending June 2016. The core of the programme is delivery of various kinds of health and nutrition related services. To facilitate the service delivery various institutional and governance actions, training and monitoring activities were envisaged. The service delivery has several components which are Integrated Management of Childhood Illness and Nutrition Corner (IMCI+N), ANC, Referral and In-patient care for severe acute malnutrition (SAM), sick child visits and outreach through health assistants and family welfare volunteers. In 2015, World Bank carried out an assessment of the effectiveness of the programme (Saha et al: 2015). The results and findings of the assessment was in one word a semi-failure.

The problems were with designing of the programme (too many things to be done without focus and also the choice of the institutions which were not geared towards preventive issues rather to management of curative health and nutrition); the institutional structure and governance (particularly coordination at higher level); training and roll-out (dense training materials but little record keeping of what training were being given and project staff being loaded with other trainings which may have little to do with NNS and to top it all, problems with logistics even to the extent of handing out of non-functioning equipments to service staff); several delivery platforms of services without nutrition being properly integrated with them; weak and not entirely effective monitoring because of limited record keeping, monitoring indicators being not all appropriate and lack of technical monitoring. The over-al impression that one gets is a huge wastage of resources by a development partner which always works with the Government without ever learning what works and what does not work. The problem of designing to begin with was the WB's fault and so was the choice of the particular conduits of the government and lamenting later on that these were more curative oriented as if this is a new discovery. If the particular directorates were to be chosen, the institutionalization and governance were to be finalized before beginning any serious work.

b. Choudhury et al (2014) reviewed the mother and child malnutrition situation and the efficacy of nutrition programmes including the WB's BNNS. Their basic recommendation is that community based nutrition service needs to be integrated with NNS or similar programmes. How far this might be a good idea given the present nature of service delivery platforms need to be studied carefully. The points raised by Choudhury et al (2014) may be discussed and debated further. However, while the focused attention to SAM and MAM are certainly useful, the question remains as to how to prevent the occurrence of such

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prevalence through preventive actions where the issue of other progarmmes such as Shouhardo come in. This is discussed later.

c. Earlier a point was made regarding the growth of aquaculture and the relative scarcity of indigenous, particularly small fishes which are generally eaten whole and provide a lot of nutrition. Bogard et al (2015) have pointed out that it is possible to provide micronutrient to pregnant and lactating women as well as children up to 24 months (the first 1000 days) through locally processed small indigenous fishes which are generally available to the poor within the country.

While on this issue of indigenous fish, it is instructive to examine a similar proposition by Fiedler et al (2015) who have advocated and actually prepared a programme for aquaculture of small indigenous fishes such as mola which they claim may save 3,000 lives and 100,000 disability-adjusted life-years at a cost per DALY saved of $194, the total programme to run for 11 years will cost US$ 23 million or less than US$ 2 million per year.

d. Shouhardo: CARE Bangladesh and its Partner NGOs were involved in designing and implementing the first Shouhardo programme from 2005-2011. Based upon the lessons and effectiveness of the programme a second Shouhardo programme was launched to run over 2010 to 2015. The second phase continued earlier emphasis on "improving livelihood security, food security, nutrition, poor and extreme poor (PEP), and women's empowerment at the community level, while adding components aimed at strengthening local governance and improving adaptation to climate change". The programme has been implemented by CARE Bangladesh along with NGOs and 4 Technical Partners. The geographic coverage was over 11 districts considered to be the poorest. A final evaluation was carried out of the effectiveness and processes of the programme in 2015. The present discussion provides highlights from the evaluation report.

The summary results are provided in the Annex. The first set of indicators relate to adequacy and diversity of diet. On both counts, the project beneficiaries have performed very well. On the two major nutritional outcomes of under-nutrition and stunting, performance though better than in the base line has not improved to the extent hoped for in case of under-nutrition. In all other cases they did achieve the targets. Immunisation target was achieved almost but not quite. Similarly for breastfeeding and on taking iron supplements the situation improved over the benchmark but not to the extent targeted. Then again the extent of women's empowerment was better than before but should have been more. On the whole the Shouhardo has achieved quite a lot but it could have been better.

What the evaluation did not provide was an evaluation of the process and how the different components hang together. Which impact was conditional on which prior outcome or output was not analysed. There is some suggestion in the literature that it was

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women's empowerment which actually did the trick. But what was the overall empowerment status or level? An analysis like those made by Sraboni et al (2014) could have been very useful. Had these been focused it would have been easier to weed out problems of design or implementation procedures in Shouhardo.

Secondly, a large programme like Shouhardo certainly had hitches. Where were those and how those were resolved? The answers to these questions would have made it easier to redesign for further scaling up the programme. On the whole though it may be said that this is an example of a successful intervention combining nutrition, food availability and adequacy as well as ensuring access to the most disadvantaged sections of the society.

e. From time to time there had been several studies for understanding efficacies of various nutritional interventions. The lessons might be useful for programme designing for future similar investments. For want of a better place some of these are briefly stated here. Rawat et al (2014) who investigated iron deficiency among infants in Bangladesh identified limited intake of iron-rich food by infants as a major factor. However, interventions to remedy various nutritional deficiencies with food supplements should be carefully crafted as evident from Ahmed et al (2012) on long term interventions with supplements for iron and folic acid deficiencies.

Experimentation has been made with various food for addressing Vitamin A deficiency in children and the consumption of a very popular small fish, Mola, has come up for investigation, Kongbak, Thilsted and Wahed (2008) did not find much of a support for using Mola as part of diet for lowering Vitamin A deficiency although the fish is quite nutrition-dense. On the other hand, fortification of vegetable oil with Vitamin A might be a useful vehicle for lowering children's Vitamin A deficiency (Fiedler, Lividini, Bermudez: 2014).

One nutritional supplement that has been in use is administering probiotic to children for better health. Hossain et al (2016) made some tests with such probiotics and found them to be acceptable. Hoy-Schultz et al (2016) actually made a randomised control experiment and found that roughly one -half of those children who were provided probiotics became healthier than before the basic reason being that probiotics help in better absorption of food and its nutrients.

f. The Government has tried to emulate the lessons of Shouhardo in its Ekti Bari, Ekti Khamar (one house, one farm) project. Unfortunately, it was not possible to find any evaluation of the project in public space to examine its efficacy or implementation procedure.

g. Lastly though not a programme yet, one may cite the case of Country Investment Plan for Environment, Forestry and Climate Change just prepared by the FAO (2016). While this seems to be an ambitious programme in its climate change part, it also gives little attention to nutrition security.

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7.4 Lessons of Similar Nutrition and Climate Programmes Elsewherea. In Southern Africa in many countries there is a novel programme particularly to cushion the food and nutrition insecurity caused short term climate related shocks. The approach is called Household Economy Approach which has been analysed by Seaman et al (2014). While this approach seems somewhat data intensive even in its simplified form, Bangladesh already has a kind of similar arrangement under the Standing Order on Disaster (SoD) which may be reformulated for climate shocks in general. On the other hand as the MoEF has a large grant for Vulnerability Assessment based on a large survey, a simplified version based on the African experience may also be tried to see if this works in Bangladesh.

b. The other problem is to link agricultural intervention with human nutrition. Webb and Kennedy (2014) based on a review of studies since 2000 conclude that there does not seem to be much of an overwhelming evidence linking the two. But they warn that the limited evidence does not mean absence of the link. The study designs were not done properly to investigate the links, they contend. They also think that the two issues need to be unpacked sufficiently to be conceptually linked. Once the pathways become clearer, these insights may be used for better and transparently designed agricultural intervention programmes for better human nutrition.

c. Against the above backdrop one should perhaps also consider the views expressed by Balz, Heil and Jordan (2015) which tried to find out how far the call for nutrition sensitive agriculture actually make sense or is practical against the backdrop of SDGs,. Their views based on interviews with various agricultural ministries around the world indicate that this appears to be more a slogan rather than concrete ideas. To make the idea worthwhile and operational a concrete and coordinated approach is needed. The same can be said if the South Asian scene is analysed (van den Bold et al: 2015). Sensitising the key policy makers appears to be the main agenda to begin the process. The authors' recommendations include the usual recipe of "political commitment, inter-sectoral coordination to implement nutrition-relevant policies, adequately resourced nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive programs, and sufficient capacities at all levels". One would have liked a clearer operational procedures and how this can be implemented in phases over a longer period, not the usual 5 year project cycles.

d. Fiorella et al (2016) tried to make a nuanced categorisation of agricultural interventions and tried to find out which ones are better attuned towards improved nutritional status of women and children. They categorised interventions as enhancement, diversification and substitution with increasing complexity of intervention and additional efforts and risks for households. In each case obviously the outcome depends on a set of socio-economic and behavioural factors but is probably likely to be the most difficult in case of substitution of one set of livelihood activities by another. While they have advocated for more detailed examination of the issues, theirs provide a broad guideline for programme designing for agricultural interventions for nutritional improvement in the household, particularly for women and children.

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e. Are probiotics good for improving child health? This issue has been investigated by Onubi et al (2015) based on a review of available literature. The conclusion of the review is that despite the limited evidence, probiotics have the potential of improving health of underweight children in developing countries. In fact as already indicated earlier in this chapter probiotic intervention has indeed promising results.

f. Does community health interventions help in raising children's nutritional status. It is likely that it does according to Hammer and Spears (2016). Based on a randomised control experiment in Indian state of Maharashtra where open defecation was discouraged, they found that the improvement in say height for age z-scores to be not insubstantial. But they have found also quite interestingly that the positive effect gets larger in families with literate adult females.

Community provision of clean water is also expected to help improve child nutrition by lowering the incidence of water-borne diseases. While generally thought to be true, the often non-random placement of such community facilities make it hard to quantify the actual benefits received as argued by Lamichhane and Mangyo (2011) in case of Nepal. While their theoretical objections may be valid, they have found another more interesting but nevertheless often observed factor behind child health which is education of mother of child. In cases where the mother is educated, the same community facility confers greater nutritional benefits on the child.

g. Lastly, we would like to point to the insights provided by McIntyre et al (2011). They have pointed to the often misguided intervention in agriculture without attention to the future climate change simultaneously impacting on various resources and activities that interact with each other for agricultural operations. Thus a successful food security outcome will necessitate attention to what happens to water, health services, inputs market access and gender. In effect this means going back to our conceptual framework in the beginning. While one programme may not cover all essential aspects, there should be programmes to complement each other.

The situation as described in the preceding chapters calls for action on many fronts. The first and foremost is that the country must raise awareness of high level policy makers. This can only be done through not simply a dedicated climate change policy and action plan but definitive mandatory guidance from relevant authorities such as the Planning Commission which is now in the process of mainstreaming climate change into development planning. This should apply most immediately for highly climate sensitive sectors and ministries in charge of them such as water, agriculture, fisheries and livestock, forestry, health and nutrition, livelihood and employment, disaster, and in areas prone to drought, flooding and salinity ingress.

7.5 General Recommendations for Actions

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Second, capacity-building must get priority in all relevant sectors for planning, programming, project formulation and implementation. In this regard the framework of Institutional Assessment of Capacity initially developed by World Resources Institute and now gaining currency in many developing countries may provide a workable guideline.

A successful food security outcome will necessitate attention to what happens to water, health services, inputs market access and gender. While one programme may not cover all essential aspects, there should be programmes to complement each other.

In ensuring food and nutrition security, policy makers need to take into account climate related extreme events as well as the impending climate change and the increasing variability particularly for protecting livelihoods of the poor and the extreme poor and marginalized sections of society including women. In this case, question remains about two issues, how can one link agriculture and food production (as a surrogate of availability), and how to increase access to food and ensure nutrition (for children, mothers and other adults). The major emphasis of the agricultural sectors so far had been to raise output with little or no attention to access or nutrition issues. On the other hand, the importance of climate change in even raising output seems to have received only limited attention.

The development of varieties resistant to various climatic stresses is on-going but needs immediately to be strengthened further as the time for their development, testing and release usually take quite long. Research and extension both should get far higher allocation of resources for research, extension activities and human capacity and institutional strengthening. Particularly development of bio-fortified varieties of crops in general but more particularly non-rice crops such as vegetables should get more and immediate attention.

In ensuring food and nutrition security to the poor and marginalized sections in society, the most critical issues are two, the first being how to ensure child nutrition as well as of mothers. And secondly, to protect the general food security at times of extreme shocks. For the first, obviously certain core activities based on the experiences of both NNS and Shouhardo may be designed. To be very specific one core component must be 100% guarantee of 1000 days of nutrition for children up to 2 years. For children beyond 2 years and for others regular visit systems by community health and nutrition workers is a must. The issue of so called cost-effectiveness should be weighed against the benefits of a healthier generation with higher productivity which will have beneficial intergenerational effects. That investment must be made now. Side by side of course vigorous awareness campaigns must go on.

One major issue is protecting livelihood and consequently ensure food security during extreme events. Here it appears that the experience of Household economy model in Southern Africa might prove useful. First, the interventions must be designed in a way that

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the relevant authorities and entities (Government or CSOs) can immediately get on to action. For that the framework of the Bangladesh's Standing Order on Disasters or a reformulated SoD may be used fruitfully. On the other hand as evident from large scale survey analysis some of the actions will have to be timed with certain time lag. Thus some of the actions in the case of an extreme event will be immediate but some others will be concentrated a few months after that. However what the time gaps shall be may depend on specific situation and careful monitoring of nutritional impacts. Interventions must be designed accordingly

Livelihood options and components need to be chosen carefully depending not only the area but also on other factors such as marketing services, condition of infrastructure etc. This becomes more important more the options involve activities like aquaculture and livestock rearing for meat or dairy. In case of aquaculture issues related to nutrition particularly the trade-off between market price and nutrient content may need to be carefully weighed but how multi-species aquaculture may be promoted may become a technical issue.

Even more important in the livelihood options is the issue of how the vegetables to be grown in the home garden or fishes cultured or livestock reared would be affected by temperature anomalies and drought or salinity. This needs to be monitored from the beginning. The research agenda that has been stated above should take these issues with all seriousness. The local arms of the DAE, DoF or DL should be involved from the very beginning in designing and implementation of the interventions. But it should go much beyond that.

Finally, one should remember that children's nutrition as well as the over-all nutrition of the whole family depends critically on women. Women's empowerment is an absolutely essential ingredient in this process. While access to and control over productive resources by women should be the ultimate goal for ensuring empowerment of women, the other immediate essential component of empowerment is education as all available evidence shows clear and positive child and family nutrition to women's educational status. One pathway is of course nutrition-related education and awareness. But more importantly, general education of women is equally important. And it would be good to keep in mind that worldwide evidence suggests women's education up to a minimum of secondary level may unlock the key to the advancement of a family. Generally, for the family and ultimately the nation's welfare, it is the women's education that really matters, not men's. Against this perspective, we believe that the children including girls of even the poorest families must be in schools up to at least secondary level if the vicious cycle of intergeneration propagation of food and nutrition insecurity is to be broken as well as empower them in general. Nutrition programmes for women and children should therefore be coordinated with general education programmes for girls wherever possible.

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7.6 Future Directions of EU's MIPThe EU's MIP has three flagship intervention sectors which are (i) Strengthening Democratic Governance, (ii) Food and Nutrition Security which now needs to take into account the impending climate change and the increasing variability as well as climate related extreme events particularly in protecting livelihoods of the poor and the extreme poor and marginalized sections of society including women; and (iii) Education and skill Development. In implementing the second area of priority programme as just indicated above, the most critical part here are two, how to ensure child nutrition as well as of mothers and to protect the general food security at times of extreme shocks.

For the first, obviously certain core activities based on the experiences of both NNS and Shouhardo may be designed as suggested earlier and may be adopted by the MIP. Side by side of course vigorous awareness campaigns may also be a part of the MIP agenda. Before designing such a programme, however, it might be needed to examine more closely one or two other flagship programmes of the government, namely the CIP for agriculture and food security and the Ekti Bari Ekti Khamar project through independent evaluation for learning from their experiences.

MIP may examine how the country's SoD and the Southern African Household Economy models may be merged for more effective response during an extreme climatic shock. In designing such programmes attention have to be given to respond to adverse nutritional effects on children which manifest after a time lag. And here as the Household Economy model is somewhat data intensive, it might be useful to have the Ekti Bari Ekti Khamar data base, if one exists, as an entry point.

The MIP may initiate a monitoring of how women's income earning activities from home gardening or aquaculture or livestock rearing are affected by climate change and shocks. And here comes the synergy with other components of MIP namely local governance. The local arms of the DoE or the DoF or DL should be involved from the very beginning in designing and implementation of the interventions. But it should go much beyond that. EU, we think should support crop, fisheries and livestock research for developing varieties, species or breeds which can withstand the climate anomalies now and in future. One specific research it may support is bio-fortification of crops particularly the vegetables, fruits and others which are important to women. Then again, the emphasis may be more on crops for home gardening and hone-based orchards. Active action research will have to be integrated with the interventions at the ground level while engaging in laboratory experiments based on the experience.

One area where EU might support is the extension services to women. How best this can be done need to be carefully thought of. But the areas of support should be as just cited

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above, namely home gardening, home orchard, home based aquaculture and livestock rearing.

Finally, noting that women's education is an empowerment tool, should not should not the interventions in the third priority area of MIP be also a weapon in the fight against malnutrition and under-nutrition? To this end, its education programme should ensure in its geographic area of operation that all children from poor households be in schools and that girls be particularly kept in schools at least up to secondary level. Incentives may be provided in various forms for the purpose. In designing such programmes the best of such programmes in Bangladesh and perhaps those in the West Bengal's Kanyashree Prokalpa may be integrated.

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35 www.wbkanyashree.gov.in/kp_scheme.php accessed on April 19, 2016.

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Chapter-8SUMMARY AND CONCLUDING

REMARKS

The present study has been prepared at the request of the EU. It purports to see how far the AR5 analyses and diagnosis for food and nutrition security under climate change might be applicable in Bangladesh and how actionable programmes may be recommended for the purpose of ensuring such security in general and for the most disadvantaged groups suffering from food and nutrition insecurity, particularly women and children. Based on these recommendations, the EU may fine tune, if necessary, its MIP, particularly the issues relevant for food security programme under it.

AR5 analyses and diagnosis as well as global post-AR5 literature and also wherever necessary pre-AR5 studies have been examined as far as possible. Bangladesh studies on the same or similar topics have been probed along with the experiences of policies, programmes and projects with direct or indirect impact on food and nutrition security. Several points have come out in bold relief.

First and foremost, while FNS has basically 3 elements of availability, access and utilisation (nutrition), generally, it is the first element which is mainly dependent on production and productivity gets most attention globally and also in Bangladesh. And even within that it is crops, more particularly, cereal crops which have been researched most. Fisheries and livestock have received comparatively much more limited attention globally and also in Bangladesh.

Second, all the broad elements of FNS have as background factors many issues which may be either climatic or non-climatic in nature. And more often these interact with each other. Unfortunately the nature and strength of these interactions have not been properly understood yet either internationally or in Bangladesh.

Third, given these caveats, that climate and climate change do impact upon production capability of agriculture have been unmistakable, yet, the relationships are not always very clear or stable, particularly in case of Bangladesh.

Fourth, in case of nutrition security, several climatic influences are disturbing. Studies do confirm that the nutritional quality of plant food generally falls, both protein and micronutrient contents are known to be reduced either under the influence of temperature or carbon fertilization while in some case natural toxins may form.

Extreme climatic shocks such as severe floods, drought, cyclonic storms surges as well as those related to climate change such as virulence of pest and disease attacks do not seem to be clearly focused yet systematically but are known anecdotally to be highly disruptive of

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the food system and threaten FNS. Particularly it is the women and children who suffer most in such situations.

Women's agency and empowerment are critical factors in ensuring FNS for them. Unfortunately given a few exceptions, there is little by way of public programmes to reach women in general and women farmers in particular for enhancing their resilience to withstand the adverse climatic influences and shocks.

Globally there are good examples of interventions to increase resilience or reducing vulnerability after major climatic shocks which may be contextualized for Bangladesh. On the other hand there are good examples in the country of programmes which ensure FNS for the women and children in a sustainable manner. These may be emulated.

One major area of intervention must be generation of new knowledge. The interventions must be science and evidence based but in many cases despite improvements over the past, we still have insufficient scientific knowledge in critical areas. Two specific actions are recommended. Several critical areas must receive scientific attention immediately which include among others development of stress-tolerant varieties and cropping and farming systems including for non-cereal and home gardening crops as well as non-crop food from inland fisheries and mixed crop-livestock systems. Secondly, there must be a coordinated, integrated effort and mainstreaming of the climate interventions as a manifestation of a new type of development challenge, rather than adhering to a silo mentality as had been the practice almost everywhere in the world as well as in Bangladesh so far. For this to happen, policy makers must be properly sensitized to the relevant issues. Furthermore it must be pointed out that as many factors and issues are involved, there may be several entry points for any interventions but not all will be practical, nor cost-effective, yet whatever are undertaken must have synergy with each other. Interventions with similar objectives must be coordinated properly with each other.

Based on these the EU's MIP may wish to examine several of these areas for support. One would for scientific research as well as evaluations of several flagship programmes in the country for a better designed intervention to support women's agency and empowerment and thereby ensure their and children's food and nutrition security. It may also support the institution of a kind of response mechanisms for FNS under a situation of extreme climatic shocks modeled on the basis of good practices elsewhere as well as in this county.

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ANNEX TO CHAPTER III

The Sample Survey under the Census of Agriculture, 2008 collected information on sample farm households' involvement in subsistence and commercial fisheries, both capture and cultured. The data table indicate that the catch figures per household of those who had been involved are given for the reference week (i.e., the week preceding the survey). The Questionnaire for the survey, however, indicates that the figures were collected for the whole year. It is likely that actually weekly figures were collected which wee then converted into yearly figures and then reported as such although the annotation of weekly catch remained in the text for the table. If so, the total implications for catch by farm households in 2006-07 was 1.15 mt. If we assume that the non-commercial part was not considered by the DoF because it estimates catch figures based on landing (for commercial purposes), the total subsistence or non-commercial catch comes to, for 2006-07, 0.67 mt. Added to the officially reported figure of 2.07 mt, the total comes to 2.74 mt for 2006-07. The commercial catches by households are already included in DoF estimates. The present calculations are shown in table below.

Estimated Annual Inland Catch by Farm Households (2006-07)

Fisheries Households Catch per year Total estimated catchengaged (no) (kg/household) in year (mn mt) =

9 (1) (2) (3) (2)*(3)/10 (4)

Inland capture 4951353 82.9 0.41(non-commercial)

Inland capture 811437 275.5 0.22(commercial)

Inland Culture 2554242 102.8 0.26(non-commercial)

Inland culture (commercial) 252007 1032.7 0.26

All 8569039 1.15

Source: Estimated by Consultant based on information in BBS: Census of Agriculture 2008, Agricultural Sample Survey- 2008, Vol. III with the modification of weekly catches reported by BBS are being shown as yearly catch in our estimate.

130

ANNEX TO CHAPTER VIISUMMARY RESULTS OF THE SHOUHARDO II

Programme Effectiveness in Lowering food Insecurity

131

Note: Stars (*) indicate difference is statistically significant at the 10% (*) level£ The five critical times are: Before eating, before breastfeeding or feeding a child, before cooking or preparing food, afterdefecation/urination, and after cleaning a child that has defecated/changing a child's diaper.

Source: Tango International, Inc., Shouhardo II Final Quantitative Performance Evaluation: Shouhardo II Multi- Year Assistance Programme, 2015.

SO 1: "Availability of" and "access to" nutritious foods enhanced and protected for 370,000 poor & extreme poor (PEP) householdsAverage household dietary diversity score 6.0 4.8 5.9 8.7 81.3 *Average number of months of adequate household 8.0 5.9 9.9 11.0 86.4 *food provisioningSO 2: Improved health, hygiene and nutrition status of 176,706 children under 2 years of age

Percent of underweight children under five years of 38.4 42.2 34.4 35.9 -14.9 *age (0-59 months)

Females 34.6 37.2 34.9 36.4 -2.2Males 42.2 46.7 33.4 34.3 -26.6 *

Percent of stunted children under five years of 55.1 61.7 52.7 50.4 -18.3 *age (6-59 months)

Females 51.2 56.5 52.2 47.8 -15.3 *Males 58.9 66.1 53.2 49.7 -24.9 *

Percent of children under age two who had diarrhea 10.3 13.8 11.6 8.1 -41.3in the prior two weeksPercent of children underweight under the age of 31.1 33.2 32.1 29.5 -11.12 yearsPercent of children immunized against 8 diseases by 82.0 58.6 74.9 73.0 24.6 *12 months of agePercent of pregnant and lactating women taking iron 45.0 15.2 29.8 52.0 242.1 *supplements in last 7 daysPrevalence of exclusive breast feeding of children 66.2 64.1 66.4 62.2 -3.0under 6 monthsPercent of mothers who feel it is important to wash 35.0 9.8 10.9 29.8 204.1 *hands at five critical times£Number of people in target areas with improved 60.0 20.3 32.4 52.8 160.1 *access to sanitation facilitiesPercent of children 6–23 months of age who receive 20.0 8.7 17.5 47.9 450.6 *a minimum acceptable dietNumber of people in target areas with improved 80.0 59.5 76.3 77.6 30.3 *access to drinking water supply

SO 3: PEP women and adolescent girls empowered in their families, communities and Union ParishadPercent of women control over economic resources 25.0 5.7 11.3 19.8 247.4 ** SO 5: Targeted community members and government institutions are better prepared for, mitigate, and respond to disasters and adapt to climate changePercent of PEP households distress selling 7.0 9.6 9.5 9.8 2.1Taka value of distress sale (2010) 15000 19979 21304 16,321 46.0

Indicator Target Base-line

Mid-term

End-line

Percent Difference

(Endline-Baseline)

A civil servant under Ministry of Environment and Forests. As a member of the BCS (Administration) he has been serving the government of Bangladesh at various positions of the field and central administration. He is highly experienced in environmental management, climate change, natural resources management, biodiversity conservation, agriculture, and community-based natural resource management. He has been involved in climate change negotiation of the UNFCCC. He has also been involved with a number of global and national research projects on climate change, biodiversity conservation and environmental management. Dr. Khan played central role to establish Bangladesh climate change Trust Fund and Bangladesh climate change Resilience Fund.

Dr. Khan served as Co-Chair for IPCC Conflict Resolution Sub-Group, and Co-Chair of Loss and Damage stream of negotiation under the UNFCCC and member of the Working Group, Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC). He worked as Spokesperson for the Least Developed Countries at the UNFCCC as well as core member of LDC negotiation team. Dr. Khan has long teaching experienced at the University of Manitoba, Canada, BRAC University, Bangladesh and North South University, Bangladesh. Dr Khan has authored, edited or co-authored quite a number of publications on environmental management, climate change, biodiversity & natural resources management. He has been contributing s ignif icantly to the mult i lateral g lobal environmental process as member of many global committees and forums.

S.M. Munjurul Hannan Khan, PhD

A former Research Director and presently a Distinguished Fellow at the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), the premier and independent development studies research centre of the country, Dr M. Asaduzzaman has to his credit major analysis of climate change and its impacts and adaptation, energy and environment in the country. In climate change, he has been involved as an author in practically most official documents on climate change including NAPA, as Coordinator of Second National Communication, one of the lead authors of the BCCSAP and a lead author of the Third National Communication. He prepared the adaptation strategy for agriculture under climate change for the CCAFS under the CGIAR system, a road map for adaptation under climate change and also developed along with others methodology for analysis of vulnerability under climate change. At present he is involved in the evaluation of the projects under Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund.

Dr Asaduzzaman was a lead author for the Second Assessment Report of IPCC and also the Chair of the Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) for Non-Annex 1 countries under SBI/UNFCCC. He has been one of the Commissioners and the Deputy Chair of the International Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change under CGIAR headed by the then Chief Scientific Advisor to the British Government.

Dr. Asaduzzaman has many peer-reviewed and published articles, books and monographs as well as major unpublished works on environment and climate change, energy, agriculture and food security and natural resource management. Dr. Asaduzzaman has worked also on other areas of development including poverty eradication measures, local government, local level resource mobilisation, trade and education.

M. Asaduzzaman, PhD

Nature Conservation Management (NACOM)Dhaka, Bangladeshwww.nacom.org