impact of climatic parameters on agricultural production and

Impact of Climatic Parameters

on Agricultural Production and

Minimizing Crop Productivity

Losses through Weather

Forecast and Advisory Service

in SAARC Countries

SAARC AGRICULTURE CENTRE

ii

SAARC Agriculture Centre (SAC) BARC Complex, Farmgate Dhaka-1215, Bangladesh Phone : 880-2-8115353, Fax : 880-2-9124594 E-mail : [email protected] Web : www.saarcagri.net c 2012 SAARC Agriculture Centre Published July 2012 All rights reserved

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Impact of Climatic Parameters on Agricultural

Production and Minimizing Crop Productivity

Losses through Weather Forecast and Advisory

Service in SAARC Countries

Compiled & Edited

by

Dr. S. K. Pal Deputy Director (Agriculture)

SAARC Agriculture Centre

v

Table of Contents____________________________

Serial No. Content Page No

1 Table of Content v

2 Foreword xi

3 Executive Summary xiii

4 Concept Paper xxiii

5 Country Status Report 1

5.1 Bangladesh 3

5.1.1 Introduction 5

5.1.2 Existing Weather Forecasting Systems 5

5.1.2.1 Storm Warning Center 5

5.1.2.2 Existing Agro-met Advisory System 6

5.1.2.3 Modernizing Agro-met Division 8

5.1.2.4 Conversion of Weather Forecast Information into Farmers’ Advisories proposed

10

5.1.2.5 Dissemination Mechanism of Agro-met Advisory Services 10

5.1.2.6 Application of Forecast Information and Advisories to address several risks to minimize crop losses

10

5.1.3 Recommendations 12

5.1.4 Action Plan for Implementation 13

5.1.5 References 14

5.2 India 15


5.2.2 Indian Agriculture & Climatic variability in recent past 18

5.2.3 Extreme Weather and its impacts on crops 19

5.2.3.1 Cold wave 19

5.2.3.2 Drought 19

5.2.3.3 Fog 20

5.2.3.4 Thunderstorm, Hailstorm and Duststorm 20

5.2.3.5 Heat Waves 20

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5.2.3.6 Tropical Cyclones 20

5.2.3.7 Floods 21

5.2.4 Signals of Climate change based on historic data 21

5.2.5 Projection of climate change in India 25

5.2.6 Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture 28

5.2.7 Agromet Advisory Service to minimize crop loss 30

5.2.7.1 Integrated Agromet Advisory Service scheme 31

5.2.7.1.1 Activities under different Tier 32

5.2.7.1.2 Weather Forecast for Agriculture 32

5.2.7.1.3 Special weather forecast for agriculture 34

5.2.7.1.4 Agromet Advisory Service Bulletins at different levels 34

5.2.7.1.5 Translating forecast into crop advisory 34

5.2.7.1.6 Weather observing system 36

5.2.7.1.7 Agrometeorological Support for farm management 36

5.2.7.1.8

Management of Extreme weather on Agriculture through Agromet Advisory Services

38

5.2.7.1.9 Adaptation to Climate Change & Climate Variability through Agromet Advisory Services

39

5.2.7.1.10 Dissemination of Agrometeorological Bulletins 40

5.2.7.1.10.1 Strategies for dissemination of agro-meteorological advisories 41

5.2.7.1.10.2 Dissemination of Agromet Advisory Services through Internet 48

5.2.7.1.10.3 Dissemination of Agromet Advisory Services through Mobile Phone

49

5.2.7.1.10.4 New Proposals on dissemination of Agromet Advisories 53

5.2.8 Farmers Awareness on AAS through Roving Seminars 56

5.2.9 Training in Agrometeorology 57

5.2.10 Extension and outreach and collection of feedback from farming community

58

5.2.11 Agromet Browchure 58

5.2.12 Impact of agrometeorological advisory services on climate risk management

59

5.2.13 Current status of R&D in Agrometeorology 64

5.2.14 Future research & development strategies 66

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5.2.15 Future projection under Agromet Advisory Service 67

5.2.16 All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology (AICRPAM)

68

5.2.16.1 Agroclimatic Characterization 70

5.2.16.2 Crop-Weather Relationships 71

5.2.16.3 Crop Growth Modelling 73

5.2.16.4 Weather Effects on Pests and Diseases 73

5.2.17 Conclusions 75

5.2.18 References 76

Appendix I National Level Agro Advisory Bulletin 79

Appendix II Agro Advisory Bulletin for the State of Maharashtra 116

Appendix III District Level Agro Advisory Bulletin for Tikamgarh District, MP 125

5.3 Nepal 127


5.3.2 Climate Change and Agriculture 129

5.3.3 Impact of Climate Change in Nepalese Agriculture 130

5.3.4 Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Practices in Nepal

131

5.3.5 The Need for Agrometeorological Advisory Service (AAS) 134

5.3.6 Existing Agrometeorological Advisory Service in Nepal 139

5.3.6.1 National level 140

5.3.6.2 Regional level 141

5.3.6.3 District level 142

5.3.6.4 Weather Observing System 142

5.3.6.5 Weather Forecasting System 142

5.3.6.6 Advisory Dissemination Mechanism 143

5.3.7 Proposed District Level Agrometeorology Advisory Service 144

5.3.8 Proposed organizational set up for AAS 144

5.3.9 Recommendations 146


Appendix 1 Synoptic Meteorological Stations, Nepal 148

Appendix 2 Morning Weather Forecast 149

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Appendix 3 24 Hour Weather Forecast 150

Appendix 4 Weather Bulletin 151

Appendix 5 Weather Forecast for Mountaineering Expedition 152

Appendix 6 Preliminary Weather Summary 153

Appendix 7 Normal (Average) Maximum, Minimum Temperature (°C) and Rainfall (mm) through 2000 year

157

5.4 Pakistan 159


5.4.2 Climate and Crop Productivity 162

5.4.2.1 Crop Situation 162

5.4.2.2 Climate and Crop Productivity: A Case Study on Wheat in Rainfed Area

162

5.4.2.2.1 Rainfall Pattern Over Time in Rainfed Area 162

5.4.2.2.2 Wheat and Climate Variability 164

5.4.2.2.3 Effective Climate Risk Management 164

5.4.2.2.3.1 Understanding Climate Variability to Sustain Wheat Productivity 168

5.4.2.2.3.1.1 Use of Crop Simulation Models: An appropriate tool to understand Crop systems in relation to Climate

168

5.4.3 Existing Weather Forecasting System 171

5.4.3.1 Numerical modeling 174

5.4.3.2 Regional Climate Model 174

5.4.3.3 Numerical Weather Forecasting Systems 175

5.4.4 Existing Agromet Advisory System 175

5.4.4.1 Agromet Centres in Pakistan 175

5.4.4.1.1 National Agromet Centre (NAMC), Islamabad. 175

5.4.4.1.2 Regional Agromet Centres 175

5.4.5 Existing Agromet Advisory Dissemination Mechanism 176

5.4.5.1 National Weather for Next 24 Hours 176

5.4.5.2 Four Days Forecast 177

5.4.5.3 Weekly Forecast 178

5.4.5.4 Agro-meteorological Advisory Bulletin 178

5.4.5.5 Monthly Agro-Met Bulletin 179

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5.4.5.6 System of Dissemination of Agromet Data 179

5.4.6 Conclusion 179


Appendix I Agrometeorological Advisory Bulletin 182

5.5 Sri Lanka 183

5.5.1 Climate of Sri Lanka 185

5.5.2 Temperature 185

5.5.3 Rainfall 185

5.5.4 Relative Humidity 186

5.5.5 Evaporation 186

5.5.6 Climatic zones of Sri Lanka 186

5.5.7 Climate parameters and crop growth 187

5.5.8 Major issues of climate change with respect to agricultural productivity in Sri Lanka

188

5.5.9 Importance of seasonal weather prediction to Sri Lanka 189

5.5.10 Present Situation of Long Range Weather Forecasting (LRF) in Sri Lanka

190

5.5.11 Current state of agromet advisory service in Sri Lanka 191

5.5.12 Proposed networking of Department of Meteorology and Department of Agriculture

191

5.5.13 Information that should give along with value-added agro-advisory reports

192

6 Proceedings of the consultation meeting on “Operational Agrometeorological Services in SAARC and other Countries of RA II Region” jointly organized by SAC, WMO & IMD at Pune, India during 20-21 April, 2012

193

7. Recommendations and Action Plan of the consultation meeting 209

8. Program details of the consultation meeting 211

9. Acronyms used in the document 213

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Foreword

SAARC Agriculture Centre, is putting is best effort to promote agricultural Research and Development (R&D) as well as technology dissemination initiatives for sustainable agricultural development and poverty reduction in the Region. One of its objectives is to strengthen agricultural research and accelerate technology transfer through establishing regional networks on agricultural and allied disciplines, particularly among agricultural research and extension centers, professionals, policy advisers and stakeholders.

In this endeavour SAARC Agriculture Centre (SAC) has initiated a program on “Impact of

climatic parameters on agricultural production and minimizing crop productivity losses

through weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries” during 2009. We had invited country documents on this aspect from all the member countries and finally we have received country paper from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka as other countries may not have enough document on this aspect to report. The content of the respective country report is authenticated by the author(s). Later on these country reports were discussed in details in a consultation meeting jointly organized by the Centre in collaboration with World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, Maharashtra, India during 20-21 April 2012. Main purpose of this program is to review the existing situation of impact of climatic parameters on agricultural production and minimizing crop productivity losses through weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC countries, find out the diversity among the member countries; identify the strength and weakness of the present scenario in the member states and recommend measures for improving the existing production system in individual member countries to address the need of 21st century.

You are well aware of the fact that global climatic changes and increasing climatic variability are likely to exert pressure on agricultural systems and may constrain attainment of future food production targets. Available adaptation strategies can help reduce negative impacts in short term but to a limited extent. We therefore need to urgently take steps to increase our adaptive capacity. This would require increased adaptation research, capacity building, development activities, and changes in Policies. Weather based agro-advisory is one such adaptation strategy in which India has already shown considerable progress. However, this needs to be propagated throughout the region for betterment of the farming community in the region.

I strongly believe that if recommendations emerged out of the consultation meeting are adopted by the member states, there are enormous opportunities to minimize the hazardous effect of climatic parameters and increase productivity in the region through agro-met advisory services. I hope and fully believe that India Meteorological Department in association with World Meteorological Organization can take a lead role in this regard to help fellow member states of the region with their resources and technology.

Dr. Abul Kalam Azad

Director SAARC Agriculture Centre

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Executive Summary

Climate variability witnessed in recent years is not new. It has been, and continues to be, the principal source of fluctuation in global food production, particularly in the semi-arid tropical countries of the developing world. In conjunction with other physical, social and political-economic factors, climate variability contributes to vulnerability to economic loss, hunger, famine and dislocation. In the developing countries, where adoption of improved technologies is too slow to counteract the adverse effects of varying environmental conditions, climate fluctuations are the main factors that prevent the regular supply and availability of food, the key to food security. Hence it is imperative that weather and climate variability aspects are well understood so as to formulate more sustainable policies and strategies to promote food production and food security.

It has long been recognized that if society could have advance information on weather, the adverse effects associated with it could be minimized. Climate determines the general adaptation of ecosystems and land use activities at any location. Year to year recurrences of extreme climate events such as drought, flooding, hot/cold spells, etc. often have far reaching consequences in agriculture. Advance warning of such events through climate prediction can minimize various socio-economic problems which are often associated with such events. The severity of the socio-economic impacts of climate related stress varies significantly from one region to another. The impacts are generally more severe in many developing countries particularly in SAARC countries where technological adaptations are often very low, and where most of the agricultural systems are rain dependent.

It is necessary to replicate the successful model of agro-advisory services developed by India or other developed countries to be replicated in the SAARC countries with the following objectives.

Objectives:

� To provide location specific weather forecast and Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service (AAS) as per different climatic conditions and cropping patterns.

� To implement an efficient outreach system so that the farmers receive weather based agro-advisories specific to their areas and crops on real time basis.

� To set up operational arrangements for AAS involving extension and information disseminating agencies.

It is possible to achieve these objectives with systematic plan of action :

1. Developing regional weather forecasting system

SAARC Meteorological Research Centre in collaboration with country level meteorological Centre may provide the weather forcasting information up to the district level or Block level whichever is feasible. These information need to be disseminate once or twice a week to the National Agromet advisory unit who will ultimately disseminate it to the district level or

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block level advisory unit for its effective translation in to agricultural advisory system to be practiced or followed by the farmers of that district or block.

2. Establishment of Agromet advisory system network

SAARC Agriculture Centre in collaboration with National Agricultural Research System and Agricultural Universities need to develop an advisory system network who can translate the weather forecast information to farmers friendly agricultural management advice to cope up with the forthcoming weather situation.

3. Advisory Dissemination Mechanism:

These weather based advisories would be disseminated to the farmers through mass media dissemination, Internet etc as well as through district level intermediaries. The advisories would be communicated through multi-channel dissemination system including Radio, National as well as private television channels, FM radios, print media (newspapers), Internet (web pages of SAC, SMRC, NARS SAUs etc) and Community Service Centres of Ministry of Information Technology, Cell Phone-SMS, District Agricultural Offices (DAO), Kisan Call Centres, NGOs etc. A mechanism also needs to be developed to obtain feedback from the farmers on quality of weather forecast, relevance and content of Agromet advisory and effectiveness of information dissemination system.

In order to do this it is necessary to understand the existing situation of the SAARC member states in respect of impact of climatic parameters on agricultural production and minimizing crop productivity losses through weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC countries, find out the diversity among the member countries; identify the strength and weakness of the present scenario in the member states and recommend measures for improving the existing production system in individual member countries to address the need of 21st century. In this endeavourer SAARC Agriculture Centre (SAC) has initiated a program on

“Impact of climatic parameters on agricultural production and minimizing crop

productivity losses through weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries” during 2009. Centre has invited country documents on this aspect from all the member countries and finally we have received country paper from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka as other countries may not have enough document on this aspect to report. Latter on these country reports were discussed in details in a consultation meeting organized by the Centre in collaboration with India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, Maharashtra, India during 20-21 April, 2012. Existing status of the above five countries are summarized below.

I. Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, weather forecasting on cyclones, storms, tornadoes, etc. are mainly provided by Storm Warning Center (SWC) and on flood, drought, rainfall, sunshine hour, etc. by Agro-met division of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). The BMD is a government organization under the administrative control of the Ministry of Defense and was established at Agorgaon, Dhaka in 1971. The BMD operates 35 synoptic stations and throughout the country of which 12 provide agro-met information, reporting daily to the central office at Agorgaon, Dhaka.

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Based on the review of the activities of the current Agro-met division of BMD and weak linkage of DAE and NARS institutes with BMD, the following recommendations are suggested:

� Modern Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) facilities should immediately be installed at the Agro-met division to collect more accurate data on crop yields, moisture stress, incidence of pests and diseases, etc.

� It is essential that increased number of stations is established at more number of locations of the country to obtain location-specific information on climate changes and related issues. The existing stations and the proposed ones must be simultaneously equipped with adequate number of professionals, supporting staff and Automatic Weather Observation Systems (AWOS) with telemetry.

� The WRF model which is now at experimental stage should be completed as soon as possible for better and effective forecasting.

� Planning of a training program with required training aids at the Agro-met division is essential to offer training courses to farmers, DAE officials and scientists of NARS institutes on weather forecast and agro-met advisory systems.

� The agro-met division is recommended to prepare and publish Agro-met advisory bulletin based on major crop seasons for the farmers of different agro-climatic zones. The proposed RS and GIS technologies are essential to prepare and publish such season-based Agro-met bulletins.

� The SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Bangladesh may be urged to upgrade research on developing Regional Climate Models (RCM) for the member countries of the region including Bangladesh.

� An MOU needs to be signed involving BMD, DAE and BARC to strengthen the present mechanism of dissemination of farmer’s advisories from BMD and feedback on such advisories from farmers, DAE and NARS institutes.

� It is also recommended that at least one or two krishibids (agricultural scientists)

with strong background in integrated crop management and skill in GIS and RS be immediately placed at BMD on deputation mainly to improve the current advisory service system of BMD based on location-specific weather forecast.

II. India

The Indian subcontinent has been exposed to disasters from time immemorial. The increase in the vulnerability in recent years has been a serious threat to the overall development of the country. Subsequently, the development process itself has been a contributing factor to this susceptibility. Coupled with lack of information and communication channels, this had been a serious impediment in the path of progress. India's vulnerability to various disasters has led to mounting losses year after year. Mammoth funds were drawn to provide post disaster relief to the growing number of victims of floods, cyclones, droughts and the less suspecting landslides and earthquake. Indian agriculture is passing through a critical phase as the rate of increase in crop production is barely keeping pace with the increase in population rates. As

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more land cannot be diverted to agriculture, increase in unit area productivity of crops is called for. Our recent experience is that the strategy of erring on the safe side through over-irrigation, over-protection and over fertilization of crops has been counter-productive, leading to a decrease in rates of crop production even under irrigation and degradation of soil and air environments and pollution of surface and groundwater reserves. Despite technological advances, such as improved varieties, genetically modified organisms, and irrigation systems, weather is still a key factor in agricultural productivity, as well as soil properties and natural communities. The effect of climate on agriculture is related to variability in local climates rather than in global climate patterns.

The challenges facing agriculture in the country are ever increasing. In the first place agriculture is highly weather dependent and hence subject to its variability. Secondly, the possible impacts of climate change may pose major challenges. Finally, the very sustainability of intensive agriculture using present technologies is being questioned in the context of Global Climate Change debate. The combination of long-term changes and the greater frequency of extreme weather events are likely to have adverse impacts on the agricultural sector. Changes in hydrological regimes will directly impact agricultural production and production methods. Reductions in crop yield and quality as the result of reduced water availability and precipitation variability could result in a loss of rural income. This loss of income will be further exacerbated by the need for increased spending as a result of damage caused by extreme weather events. The problem therefore has to be addressed collectively by scientists, administrators, planners and the society as a whole.

Several adaptation measures are available to reduce vulnerability to climate change by enhancing adaptive capacity and increasing resilience. Farmers can adopt coping mechanisms that withstand climate variability through activities such as the use of drought-resistant or salt-resistant crop varieties, the more efficient use of water resources and improved pest management. Adjustments may include the introduction of late-maturing crop varieties, switching cropping sequences, sowing earlier, adjusting timing of field operations, conserving soil moisture through appropriate tillage methods and improving irrigation efficiency. Some of the adaptive measures communicated through the Agromet Advisory bulletins are:

• Adjustment of planting dates to minimize the effect of temperature increase-induced spikelet sterility to reduce yield instability, by avoiding having the flowering period to coincide with the hottest period.

• Changing the cropping calendar to take advantage of the wet period and to avoid extreme weather events (e.g., cyclones and storms) during the growing season.

• Cultivation of crop varieties that are resistant to lodging (e.g.short rice cultivars)which withstand strong winds during the sensitive stage of crop growth.

• Development of cultivars resistant to climate change; adopting new farm techniques that respond to the management of crops under stressful conditions, plant pests and disease

• Shifts on sowing date of crops for more effective use of the soil moisture content.

• Moving forward the dates of crop sowing in a crop rotation calendar and farmers to plant a second crop that could even be vegetable with a short growth period.

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• With increased evapotranspiration, orientation toward a shift from conventional crops to types of agriculture that are not vulnerable to evapotranspiration

• Cultivation of heat resistant crop varieties by utilizing genetic resources that may be better adapted to warmer and drier conditions.

• Growing of suitable cultivars (to counteract compression of crop development), increasing crop intensities (i.e., the number of successive crops produced per unit area per year), or planting different types of crops.

The Agro-meteorological Advisory Service (AAS) is a mechanism to apply relevant meteorological information to help the farmer to use it for improving agricultural production. The main emphasis is to collect and organize climate/weather, soil and crop information, and to amalgamate them with weather forecast to assist farmers in taking management decisions. This has to be done immediately after generation of the weather forecast as there may be an emergent situation asking farmer to take management action in view of forthcoming weather situation. Critical factors for successful dissemination include relevance of information to weather & climate sensitive decision making in agriculture, followed by good outreach. The task is to provide information to help farmers make the best possible use of weather and climate information. To ensure delivery of information to the farming community, a multi-mode dissemination system for agro-meteorological advisories is essential in which beside the conventional modes (radio, television & print media), the emerging modes of communication such as mobile phones and internet are also deployed. More often than not, a wrong presumption is made while disseminating the information, that the farmers do not possess relevant knowledge and skills. To smarten the service through continuous up-gradation of service one needs back flow of information on quality and relevant of information or demand for specific product, hence two way communication has to be integral part of the dissemination system. As agro-meteorological information is dynamic in nature and there exists a large temporal and spatial difference leading to a very complex interaction between weather & agriculture, repetitive dissemination is essential. Deployment of communication model should be as per user’s need and convenience.

Under Integrated Agromet Advisory Service (IAAS) scheme at IMD/MoES efforts are being made to strengthen the outreach of the agromet advisory as per the need of the farmers. Under the project advisories are primarily disseminated to the farmers by mass mode, outreach at village level and human face for advisory dissemination. Advisories are being disseminated to farmers through following the multi-channel system;

i. All India Radio (AIR) and Doordarshan ii. Private TV and radio channels iii. Newspaper iv. Mobile phone / SMS v. Internet vi. Virtual Academy / Virtual Universities / NGOs vii. Kisan Call Centres / ICAR and other related Institutes / Agricultural

Universities / Extension network of State viii. Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVKs)

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To cope with climate change more effectively, it is necessary to identify integrated adaptation and mitigation options for a range of agroecosystems so as to enable a favorable policy environment for the implementation of the framework. The policy implications are wide-reaching, as changes in agriculture could affect food security, trade policy, livelihood activities and water conservation issues, impacting large portions of the population.

To promote sustainable farm production in the scenario of increased climate variability and climate change, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences, has strengthened the weather forewarning system and also developed weather information based advisory service to assist farmers to undertake suitable farm management practices. The service has components that mitigate likely impacts of severe weather and harness benevolent weather. Under the service known as Agrometeorological Advisory Service (AAS), the needs of farming community were defined through ascertaining information requirement of diverse groups of farmers to find that the prime need of farming community is to have location specific weather forecast in quantitative terms for medium range and beyond. Hence, the district level medium range weather forecast was developed and made operational in June, 2008. Thereafter, mechanism was developed to integrate weather forecast and climatic information along with agro-meteorological information to prepare district level agro-advisories outlining the farm management actions to harness favorable weather and mitigate impacts of adverse weather. A system has also been developed to communicate and disseminate the agro-meteorological advisories to strengthen the information out reach.

III. Nepal

Nepal is extremely vulnerable to climate change like other GHG gas non-emitting countries. Its emission level is lowest in the world measuring only 0.025% of global GHG emissions. However, this ratio is increasing over time. From the last couple of years, Nepal has been experiencing flooding, landslides, drought and variability in the occurrence of the regular course of monsoon. Flooding of the Kosi River in monsoon, over the past two years has displaced millions in Nepal as well as in Bihar (India). On the other hand, a weakened and irregular monsoon is causing drought threatening hundreds of millions of farmers all over India, Bangladesh and Nepal while heavy rains have caused terrible landslides across the Himalayas. The agriculture production particularly paddy in the current year in Nepal will decrease considerably due to the late monsoon. Likewise, last year’s drought plagued winter has adversely affected this year’s food production creating deficit of food. Currently up to 3.4 million people are estimated to require food assistance in Nepal due to a combination of natural disasters (particularly winter drought) affecting agricultural production and higher food prices, reducing people’s ability to purchase food. Scientists claim that Nepal is getting warmer. Monsoon changes its regular course in a slow and creeping manner. While none of these natural disasters can be directly attributed to climate change, scientists predict that they will become more frequent and more severe unless we act properly. Furthermore, scientists claim that increasing warming and changes in the occurrence of monsoon in Nepal are the worst consequences of climate change. Most of the arable land remains fallow as its cultivation depends on the rainfall resulting in food supply shortages. The livelihood of the majority of farmers is in danger due to crop failures arising from the uncertainty of monsoon. It is the poorest who are most vulnerable to these natural disasters getting most

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severely affected by the climate change. The rising trend of warming if allowed to continue will put the Himalayan glacier in danger. Scientists have warned that the fast melting of ice in the Himalayan range will convert the ever flowing river into desert after 30 years.

Nepal has not been able to cope with such cliamte and weather related problems due to its poor data base and weak advance weather forecasting mechanism. The agromet advisory system is not well established and needs to be strenghthened at different levels. Agrometeorological advisory service (AAS) in Nepal is at rudimentary stage. It is not well organized and what so ever exists is not easily accessible to the end users. The agency responsible for this service is Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) of the Government of Nepal. Government of Nepal started hydrological and meteorological activities in an organized way in 1962. The activities were initiated as a section under the Department of Electricity. The section was subsequently transferred to the Department of Irrigation and was ultimately upgraded to Department status in 1988. The department with headquarters in Kathmandu has three basin offices: Karnali Basin Office in Surkhet, Narayani Basin Office in Pokhara and Kosi Basin Office in Dharan. DHM has a mandate from Government of Nepal to monitor all the hydrological and meteorological activities in Nepal. The scope of work includes the monitoring of river hydrology, climate, agrometeorology, sediment, air quality, water quality, limnology, snow hydrology, glaciology, and wind and solar energy. General and aviation weather forecasts are the regular services provided by DHM. As a member of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), DHM contributes to the global exchange of meteorological data on a regular basis.

To improve the existing situation following recommendations are made:

1. Establish an effective and efficient Agrometeorology Advisory Service Unit at National and District level within the extension service delivery mechanism of Nepal.

2. Formation of AAS Steering Committee under the chairmanship of Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooeratives to coordinate and decide about policy issues in AAS.

3. Use of decision-support systems should be promoted as an effective means of providing output of integrated climate-agronomic information

4. Research into the introduction of new scientific-based weather and climate forecast services, which provide accurate and reliable outlooks into the local indigenous cultural traditions in many poor rural areas;

5. Increased attention to facilitate access by the rural poor to technical expertise and technological innovations; Development of agrometeorological products with an emphasis on local user communities.

6. Development of capacity building of persons involved in agromet service and farmers as well.

7. Application of remote sensing techniques for AAS and exploitation of rapid innovation of technologies for the benefit of agromet service.

8. Development of crop weather models for AAS.

9. Generation of advisories for different areas- Horticulture, Crops, Livestock, Fisheries, Post Harvest and Storage.

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10. Exchange of data and Agricultural Meteorological knowledge between member countries and also the Inter-Regional exchange of these materials.

11. Use of Meteorological forecasts and short- and long-term Agricultural Meteorological recommendations should be included in specialized bulletins for further notice.

IV. Pakistan

Pakistan is basically an agricultural country and its economy mainly revolves around this sector. Though, the share of agriculture in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been declining, it still accounted for 21.8 percent (%) of GDP during 2008-09. Despite its declining share it remains the single largest sector of Pakistan’s economy and an overwhelming majority of the population (Table 1) depends directly or indirectly on income streams generated by the agriculture sector. Rural areas in the country are home to around 65 percent of its population and agriculture is their principal livelihood, employing over 60 percent of the labor force. In Pakistan, like in many other regions, climatic conditions are highly variable and climate can be one of the known biggest risks factors impacting on agricultural system’s performance and management. Climate change has started to measurably affect agricultural production. There is enormous year-to-year climate variability, in terms of seasonal and in-season temperature and rainfall variability. Elevated temperatures and drought are among the biggest issues in agriculture. Occurrence of these climatic events represents the risk that existing agricultural activity may not be sustainable, given spatial and temporal variations in rainfall and other climatic conditions

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) is responsible to provide meteorological expertise and professional services to the development of agricultural sector in the country through its weather forecasting mechanism. The department is in charge to deliver quality forecast, warning and advisory services. Agromet service is in operation since 1988 with a National Agromet Centre, (NAMC) at Islamabad and Regional Agromet Centres (RAMCs). The PMD provides the information in the form of current, 10-day and monthly Agromet Bulletins, Pakistan Weather Outlook etc. from NAMC.

In Pakistan, general but non-specific climate information for the agricultural sector is available for producers from a range of sources. Information providers and users are often either ignorant of the possible consequences of a certain climatic outcome or unable to quantify its effect. While general information is somewhat useful and of interest, it usually stops short of providing the level of details needed in order to affect management decisions. To improve climate risk related decision making at the farm level, farmers need to gain a better understanding of the climate factors that affect crop yield in their environment. This will allow decision makers to identify possible management options based on climate information or seasonal climate forecasts.

Use of seasonal climate forecasting can help to enhance the resilience in various cropping systems. However, to further improve financial profitability, economic efficiency and resource risk management, well-targeted case studies should address the following objectives:

• Quantify relationships between SOI phases (using the phenomena of El Nino Southern Oscillation, ENSO) and rainfall, crop yields and income;

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• Identify promising management strategies in existing cropping systems via simulation analysis using seasonal climate forecasts and climate variability information;

• Quantify the impact of using climate knowledge in economic and social terms;

• Provide a methodology for objective evaluation of policy consequences.

For successful climate applications, there is a need for effective collaboration and communication. It requires to engage in participatory, cross-disciplinary research that brings together institutions (partnerships), disciplines (eg. climate science, agricultural systems science, sociology and many other disciplines), people (scientists, policy makers, farmers and agribusiness representatives) and institutions as equal partners to gain maximum benefit from agricultural systems and climate research. Most importantly, the concept that has proven valuable to reduce vulnerability in agricultural systems is applicable for other crops exposed to climate induced risks.

V. Sri Lanka

Being a country whose economy is highly dependent on agriculture is very sensitive to the weather aberrations. Thus, there is no doubt that climate change/variability would inflict additional strain on the agricultural productivity of Sri Lanka due to reduction of crop yields both quantitatively and qualitatively. Recent estimated statistics indicate that the climate change will affect the agricultural production in Sri Lanka, and is expected to decrease agricultural production by 16 per cent in 2020. If accurate and timely agro-met advisory products are available, the magnitude of this impact could be reduced considerably. Therefore, it has become a timely need to produce reliable seasonal weather forecasting than ever before so that appropriate changes to farming practices could be undertaken to minimize the impacts of possible weather aberrations under a changing climate.

At present, even though agro-meteorological information are being collected by both departments of agriculture and meteorology, there is hardly any collective effort to synthesize these information and compile agro-met advisory products or documents which are of any use to farmers and agri-business people. Whatever information that is being collected is used by researchers and policy makers for long-term planning and decision making. It has also been observed that there is only minimal interaction exists among agricultural and meteorological officials and farmers and agri-business people. As a result meteorological officials have only limited concern on agriculture when they issue short or medium range forecasts. This has led to farmers and peasants have no experience in relying on weather information which in turn results in no demand for agro-meteorological products or documents to be produced by the met service.

Therefore, it is proposed to take following steps by respective authorities in order to increase the demand for agro-met advisory products by agricultural stakeholders to reduce the risk that may arise due to the climate change

• Establishment of an Agro-met Forecasting Cell at the Department of Agriculture (DoA) with a team of Scientists and Extension Agronomists

• Linking this cell directly to the National Meteorological Center (NMC) of the Department of Meteorology (DoM)

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• Immediate transferring of short and medium range weather forecasts issued by the NMC directly to the Agro-met Forecasting Cell

• Preparation of Value-added Agro-Advisory Reports by the Agro-met Forecasting Cell

• Dissemination of these information immediately to the, Farm-broadcasting service, On-line agricultural extension service, Cyber Extension Service of the DoA, all printed and electronic media

In long-run, following activities should be undertaken

• Carry-out awareness programme to educate farmers and other stakeholders on the importance of Agro-advisory reports and build their confidence on such information

• Develop a mechanism to get the feedback of end-users to improve the agro-advisory reports

• Preparation of area specific detailed value-added agro-advisory reports on request through on-line for agri-business people after paying a small fee

All these will help farmers and agri-business people and policy makers to utilize the real time weather information for improved decision making and management of agricultural systems for enhanced and sustainable productivity through minimizing the risk of weather aberrations.

xxiii

Concept Paper

IMPACT OF CLIMATIC PAREMETERS ON

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND MINIMIZING

CROP PRODUCTIVITY LOSSES THROUGH WEATHER

FORCAST AND ADVISORY SERVICE

Dr S K Pal, Deputy Director (Agriculture), SAARC Agriculture Centre

Food production in the developing world declined from an average annual growth of 4.2 per

cent during the period 1991–1995 to 3.5 per cent during the period 1996–2000. One of the

reasons for this decrease was the alarming increase of natural disasters in number of

countries, which rose from 28 in 1996 to 46 in 2000. In recent years, major storms and

floods have struck Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Caribbean, Central America, China, India,

Southern Africa, Venezuela and Vietnam. As of April 2001, some 60 million people in 36

countries were confronting food shortages of varying degrees.

Climate variability witnessed in recent years is not new. It has been, and continues to be, the

principal source of fluctuation in global food production, particularly in the semi-arid

tropical countries of the developing world. In conjunction with other physical, social and

political-economic factors, climate variability contributes to vulnerability to economic loss,

hunger, famine and dislocation. In the developing countries, where adoption of improved

technologies is too slow to counteract the adverse effects of varying environmental

conditions, climate fluctuations are the main factors that prevent the regular supply and

availability of food, the key to food security. Hence it is imperative that weather and climate

variability aspects are well understood so as to formulate more sustainable policies and

strategies to promote food production and food security.

Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a

global scale. Global warming is projected to have significant impacts on conditions affecting

agriculture, including temperature, precipitation and glacial run-off. These conditions

determine the carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food for the human

population and domesticated animals. Rising carbon dioxide levels would also have effects,

both detrimental and beneficial, on crop yields. The overall effect of climate change on

agriculture will depend on the balance of these effects. Assessment of the effects of global

climate changes on agriculture might help to properly anticipate and adapt farming to

maximize agricultural production.

Despite technological advances, such as improved varieties, genetically modified organisms,

and irrigation systems, weather is still a key factor in agricultural productivity, as well as soil

properties and natural communities. The effect of climate on agriculture is related to

variabilities in local climates rather than in global climate patterns. Consequently,

agronomists consider any assessment has to be individually consider in each local area.

xxiv

In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways :

• productivity, in terms of quantity and quality of crops

• agricultural practices, through changes of water use (irrigation) and agricultural

inputs such as herbicides, insecticides and fertilizers

• environmental effects, in particular in relation of frequency and intensity of soil

drainage (leading to nitrogen leaching), soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity

• rural space, through the loss and gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land

renunciation, and hydraulic amenities.

• adaptation, organisms may become more or less competitive, as well as humans

may develop urgency to develop more competitive organisms, such as flood

resistant or salt resistant varieties of rice.

It has long been recognized that if society could have advance information on weather, the

adverse effects associated with it could be minimized. Climate determines the general

adaptation of ecosystems and land use activities at any location. Year to year recurrences of

extreme climate events such as drought, flooding, hot/cold spells, etc. often have far

reaching consequences in agriculture. Advance warning of such events through climate

prediction can minimize various socio-economic problems which are often associated with

such events. The severity of the socio-economic impacts of climate related stress varies

significantly from one region to another. The impacts are generally more severe in many

developing countries particularly in SAARC countries where technological adaptations are

often very low, and where most of the agricultural systems are rain dependent.

Socio-economic challenges of the next century will include population pressure,

industrialization, environmental degradation, and anthropogenic climate change issues,

among others. Thus some climate stress in this century may be able to induce far more

serious socio-economic disasters in the next century. Advance warning of impending

extreme climate events, especially within time scales of months to years, would provide vital

information which could be used for sustainable agricultural production. Such early warning

information can also form crucial components of national/regional disaster preparedness

system which will help to minimise loss of life and property including damage to

agricultural investments.

In many parts of the Asia-Pacific region, agriculture plays a significant role in sustaining

livelihood systems of communities. The year-to-year variability of monsoon behavior

prompted agrarian communities to search for advance measures to manage risks. They have

developed their own methods of climate forecasting based on generations of experience,

local religious beliefs and close observations of their environment to anticipate weather

patterns (Sukradi, 1998). Communities rely on interpretation of cloud color and form, animal

behavior and flowering of certain plants, among others, as indicators of seasonal conditions.

Many of these observations have been coded in folk songs and rhymes, and thus passed

through generations. While use of these prediction methods varied from community to

community, the prevalence of traditional forecasting methods reflects the demand for

advance climate information to cope with climate variability in planning for agricultural

operations (Eakin, 2000).

xxv

The magnitude of projected changes in temperature, rainfall and carbon dioxide in future for

different parts of the world, including South Asia as simulated by various general circulation

models has been compiled by the IPCC (Watson et. al., 1998). According to this, by 2010

CO2 level will increase to 397 - 416 ppm from the current (2000) level of approximately 368

ppm. This will further increase to 605 - 755 ppm by 2070. There is considerable uncertainty

in the projected magnitude of change in rainfall and temperature for India (Table 1).

Relatively, the increase in temperature is projected to be less in kharif than in rabi. The rabi

rainfall will, however, have larger uncertainty. Kharif rainfall is likely to increase by as

much as 10%.

Table 1. The expected magnitude of change in climatic factors in south Asia by 2010 and

2070 AD due to global warming (Watson et. al., 1998).

Climatic factors Rabi Kharif

2010 2070 2010 2070

Temperature increase, oC 0.3 to 0.7 1.1 to 4.5 0.1 to 0.3 0.4 to 2.0

CO2, ppm 397 to 416 605 to 755 397 to 416 605 to 755

Rainfall change in southwest

monsoon region, %

0 -10 to +10 0 0 to +10

IPCC (2001) and Lal et al. (2001) have recently updated these scenarios. The area-averaged

annual mean warming by 2020 is now projected to be between 1.0 and 1.4 oC and between

2.23 to 2.87 for 2050. It is again confirmed that kharif rainfall would increase and rabi

rainfall may decrease in some areas.

Such global climatic changes will affect agriculture through their direct and indirect effects

on crops, soils, livestock and pests. Increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide has a fertilization

effect on crops with C3 photosynthetic pathway and thus promotes their growth and

productivity. Increase in temperature, depending upon the current ambient temperature, on

the other hand, can reduce crop duration, increase crop respiration rates, alter photosynthate

partitioning to economic products, effect the survival and distributions of pest populations

thus developing new equilibrium between crops and pests, hasten nutrient mineralisation in

soils, decrease fertilizer use efficiencies, and increase evapo-transpiration. Indirectly, there

may be considerable effects on land use due to snow melt, availability of irrigation,

frequency and intensity of inter- and intra-seasonal droughts and floods, soil organic matter

transformations, soil erosion, changes in pest profiles, decline in arable areas due to

submergence of coastal lands, and availability of energy. All these can have tremendous

impact on agricultural production and hence food security of any region. Equally important

determinants of food supply are socio-economic environment including government policies,

capital availability, prices and returns, infrastructure, land reforms, and inter- and intra-

national trade that might be effected by climatic change.

Agriculture and it's economy in the SAARC countries are strongly influenced by the

vagaries of the weather. The farming community is in great need to have access to weather

information to plan and manage their crops and their livelihoods. One of the important

communication systems which is gaining increased acceptance in the recent times is the

Internet. It is the need of the day to provide valuable agro-meteorological information to the

users through an interface like Crop Weather Outlook of SAARC countries. India one of the

xxvi

Direct effect on

Crop Growth

� Physiology � Phenology

� Morphology

Indirect effects

� Soil fertility � Irrigation availability � Pests � Floods & Droughts

� Sea level rise

Socio-economics

� Food demand � Cost & benefits � Policy � Trade

� Farmers response

Agricultural Production

& Vulnerability

Human intervention

Adaptation strategies

Mitigation Strategies

Climate Change

cHANGE

Assessment of Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change

member country is already using such an interface namely crop weather outlook of ICAR

which envisages to provide agro-meteorological information highlights generated under the

All India Coordinated Research Project on Agro-meteorology (AICRPAM) and its

Cooperating and Collaborating Centres along with ‘Value Added Agro-advisory Reports’.

One such system is essentially needed for the other SAARC member countries for a wider

use by the planners, researchers, farming community and other public users. This will help

the user to utilize the information for improved management of agricultural system as well

as achieving enhanced and sustained agricultural productivity in the SAARC countries.

At local level or at farm level Long-range forecasts could provide the indications of

monsoon rainfall variability. There are at least four significant aberrations in rainfall

behavior that could upset established crop calendars and yields:

1. The commencement of rains may be quite early or considerably delayed.

2. There may be prolonged “breaks” during the cropping season.

3. There may be spatial and/or temporal aberrations.

4. The rains may terminate considerably early or continue for longer periods.

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To deal with these aberrations, farmers could respond to forecasts to undertake these

measures:

• Change variety for one with shorter or longer duration;

• Change crop species or mix of species, especially combinations of cash and food

crops;

• Implement soil and water conservation techniques;

• Increase or decrease area planted, either total, by crop, or by upland or lowland

location;

• Adjust timing of land preparation;

• Increase or decrease borrowing for inputs;

• Sell or purchase livestock depending on anticipated cost and availability of feed; or

• Remain in village or migrate to seek off-farm employment or better grazing for

livestock.

Whereas at regional level or provincial level it can help policy makers to take certain

initiatives on the following aspects to mitigate the adverse situation :

1. Water Resources Management: Water resources managers at catchment, watershed and

river basin levels could undertake proactive measures to manage water resources. There is a

potential possibility of introducing water budgeting arrangements to prioritize water use and

allocate water resources among various competitive users. In areas where water availability

for irrigation purposes is scarce, a campaign can be launched to advise farmers to provide

minimum irrigation only at the critical crop stages. The lead-time available could be used for

augmenting water resources by constructing small-scale water harvesting structures and

rehabilitating old irrigation structures.

2. Compensatory Cropping Program: This has two dimensions. One is to try to compensate

for crop loss in the most severely affected areas (MSA) by intensifying the production

program and increasing yield in the most favorable areas (MFA) where there are

expectations of good rainfall and availability of assured irrigation sources. The second is to

make up the crop loss in the same area by taking up short duration cultivars.

3. Alternate Cropping Strategy: This involves shifting of crops which could be grown on the

availability of soil moisture during less than normal conditions. The success of this strategy

could depend on government intervention in providing input and market support to farmers.

The above-mentioned approaches need to be matched with irrigation potential and

agroclimatic zonation maps to evolve suitable cropping patterns, keeping in view El Niño

influences on rainfall patterns in various regions. Provincial level institutions would have

lead-time to provide agricultural input support, credit arrangements and technical advisories

to enable farmers to undertake contingency crop plans. Provincial administrations could also

provide support for marketing the agricultural products.

xxviii

Similarly National level institutions could provide necessary support to provincial

administrations and farming communities in terms of resources. National governments can

undertake policy decisions to map out potential impact areas and target resources for

mitigation measures. They could also undertake policy measures for export and import of

agricultural commodities. National governments could undertake measures to plan for good

logistics such as procurement of food grains, transport and distribution to potentially affected

areas.

The broad strategy of such a project in a specific region would be to:

1. Forecast seasonal onset of monsoon indicating the dates of monsoon onset at ten day intervals;

2. Forecast monthly rainfall;

3. Seasonal cumulative rainfall status for the entire season.

4. Determine the baseline relationship between climate variability and crop production in the region;

5. Establish awareness in the region of the potential for climate predictions to be used to increase crop yield;

6. Mobilize a multi-disciplinary team to design and execute the project in the region;

7. Identify agriculture practices in the region that may be modified through knowledge of future climate variations;

8. Design a project in which the impact of changes in agriculture practice can be quantified;

The most obvious and cheapest way to reach the farmers is through radio, television and

news papers. A special weather bulletin giving information may be broadcasted and

published every day. It should give specific information relevant to the farmers/ planters at

specific locations where the crop field is situated. These locations may be different

agricultural regions, namely: West, North, East, South and Centre. Each location identified

would be representative of a cluster of several hectares of crops.

EXISTING AGROMETEOROLOGICAL ADVISORY SERVICE IN INDIA

India Meteorological Department (IMD) started weather services for farmers in the year

1945. It was broadcast by All India Radio in the form of Farmer’s Weather Bulletin (FWB).

Subsequently, in the year 1976, IMD started Agro-Meteorological agricultural Advisory

Service (AAS) from its State Meteorological Centers, in collaboration with Agriculture

Departments of the respective State Governments. Though these services are being regularly

provided by IMD for the past many years, the demand of the farming community could not

be fully met due to certain drawbacks in the system. In view of that IMD launched Integrated

Agromet Service in the country for 2007 in collaboration with different

organisations/institutes. At present bulletins are being issued from three levels as mentioned

below.

xxix

National Agromet Advisory Bulletin

The bulletin is prepared for national level agricultural-planning & management and is being

issued by National Agromet Advisory Service Centre, Agricultural Meteorology Division,

India Meteorological Department. Prime users of this bulletin are Crop Weather Watch

Group, (CWWG), Ministry of agriculture..Bulletin is also communicated to all the related

Ministries (State & Central), Organizations, NGOs for their use.

State Agromet Advisory Bulletin

This bulletin is prepared for State level agricultural planning & management. These bulletins

are issued from 22 AAS units at different State capitals. Prime user of this bulletin is State

ACWWG. This is also meant for other users like Fertilizer industry, Pesticide industry,

Irrigation Department, Seed Corporation, Transport and other organizations which provide

inputs in agriculture.

District Agromet Advisory Bulletin

This is prepared for the farmers of the districts. These bulletins are being issued from 30

AMFUs functioning at State Agricultural Universities. This contains advisories for all the

weather sensitive agricultural operations form sowing to harvest. It also includes advisories

for horticultural crops and livestock. These weather based advisories are disseminated to the

farmers through mass media dissemination, Internet etc as well as through district level

intermediaries. The advisories will be communicated through multi-channel dissemination

system.

An expert committee consisting of Scientists (specialists) from different disciplines meet

every week on Tuesday and prepare the agro-advisories based on the weather forecast,

keeping in view the crop status. The advisories thus prepared are disseminated through e-

mail and telephone to the farmers. A copy of the advisories is also sent to the press. The

expert members keep visiting the farmers in different villages, examine their crops, interact

with the farmers to get the feedback and give proper guidance and advise. The agro-met

advisory bulletin contains crop management which is based on weather forecast and giving

warning to farmers much in advance regarding rainfall variation its amount and other

weather variables including pest/disease problems etc. so that farmers can decide about his

choice on tactical crop management, application of nutrients, strategy to overcome other

problems. Weather based agro-advisory service, has been functioning since 1993 and

effectively serving the farming community of villages. It receives weather forecast from the

IMD (Earlier from NCMRF) twice a week on Tuesday and Friday for Five days period based

on which the expert committee prepares the agro-advisory needed for that week.

The Government of India has been focusing on strengthening farmers' knowledge on

sustainable farm practices in their overall efforts to augment food security of the nation. In

spite of successful research on agricultural practices and technologies, Indian farmers are

facing a multitude of problems to sustain crop productivity. Many of these problems are

linked to variability in weather and climate. To address this issue effectively, the

Government launched District-level Agro-meteorological Advisory Service (DAAS) in June

2008 as one of the flagship programme of Ministry of Earth Sciences. The DAAS aims to

xxx

generate agro-meteorological information (weather forecast and agro-met-advisories) and

develop suitable dissemination system, to the farming community in order to improve

crop/livestock productivity. It enables farmers to take advantage of benevolent weather and

minimise the adverse impact of malevolent weather on crops. Presently, the weather based

agro-advisories are disseminated to the farming community at district level through mass

media (Radio, Print and TV). But there exists a wide information gap between information

generator and user. The outreach of IAAS system to deliver the information at Block and

Panchayat (village) level, in a timely manner, needs to be stepped up. The Common Service

Centre (CSC) of Department of Information Technology is a good solution to bridge the

information gap by exploiting advances in Information Technology (IT), which has

witnessed incremental use in dissemination of information in the recent past.

The DAAS is multidisciplinary and multi-institutional project. It involves all stakeholders

such as State Agricultural Universities (SAUs), Indian Council for Agriculture Research

(ICAR), Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVK), Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, State

Departments of Agriculture/ Horticulture/ Animal Husbandry/ Forestry (up to District level

offices), NGOs, Media Agencies, etc. This project is being implemented through a five tier

structure to set up different components of the service spectrum. It includes meteorological

(weather observing and forecasting), agricultural (identifying weather sensitive stress and

preparing suitable advisory using weather forecast), extension (two way communication with

user) and information dissemination (Media, Information Technology, Telecom) agencies

(Fig. 1). The critical components of DAAS system (Fig. 2) is discussed in the following

sections:

Weather Observing System: District-level service needs meteorological observations at

sub-district levels. The current observation forms the basis for running the Numerical

Weather Prediction (NWP) models and also refining the weather forecast generated at

district scale. Also, the historical climate data is needed to support the crop planning. The

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has a network of 125 Automatic Weather Station

(AWS) and a large number of manual observatories. IMD is in the process to set up 550

additional AWS and 1350 Automatic Rain Gauge (ARG) stations in the first phase of its

modernisation plan. With this, every district in the country will have at least one AWS and

two ARG stations. In the second phase the network density of AWS/ARGs will be further

enhanced so as to automatically record meteorological observations at near block level. In

addition to this, a network of 55 Doppler Weather Radar has been planned of which 12 are to

be commissioned in the first phase. Techniques have been developed to assimilate large

volumes of satellite-derived information. A new satellite INSAT-3D is being launched in the

year 2009. Through improvement in observing systems, there will be further improvement in

defining the initial conditions to run the numerical weather prediction models which may

lead to higher accuracy in weather forecast.

Weather Forecasting System: IMD has started issuing quantitative district level (612

districts) weather forecast of up to 5 days from 1st June, 2008. The products comprise of

quantitative forecasts for 7 weather parameters viz., rainfall, maximum and minimum

temperatures, wind speed and direction, relative humidity and cloudiness, besides weekly

cumulative rainfall forecast. IMD, New Delhi generates these products based on a Multi

Model Ensemble technique using forecast products available from a number models of India

and other countries. These include: T-254 model of NCMRWF, T-799 model of European

xxxi

IMD

Agromet Services

State Department

of Agriculture

State Meteorological

Centre (23) IMD

AMFU (129 Agroclimatic

Zones) – SAUs/ICAR

Institute/IITs

District level Agriculture

Extension setup (512), DAO/KVK/ATMA

Block Level (BDO)

Farm Input Management

Village Level

CSC, DIT

NGO,

MSSRF

Extension Directorate of University

Local Media(AIR/TV/Print), NGOs

State Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG)

1. Drought Monitoring Centre 2. 2. State RS Application Centre 3. DAO/KVK/NGO

NCMRCWF-Location specific weather

Forcast Development Department of Agri. & Coop.

NCFC/ATMA/CWWG/

ICAR R&D Inputs Dept. of Space & Crop Information

Prasar Bharati

Department of Information Technology

Ministry Of Earth Sciences

Government of India

(AAS Steering Committee

Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF); United Kingdom Met Office

(UKMO), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA and Japan

Meteorological Agency (JMA). The products are disseminated to Regional Meteorological

Centres and Meteorological Centres of IMD located in different states. These offices

undertake value addition to these products twice a week on Tuesday and Friday and

communicate to 130 AgroMet Field Units (AMFUs) located with State Agriculture

Universities (SAUs), ICAR etc.

Agro-meteorological Field Units (AMFUs) and Agro-advisory: Based on the above

forecast products and the crop information available from districts, the AMFU prepares

district-wise agro-advisories. The Ministry of Earth Sciences has set up a network of 130

AMFUs covering the agro-climatic zones of the country. These are operated at State

Agriculture Universities (SAUs), Indian Council of Agricultural Research institutions

(ICAR), Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) by providing grant-in-aid from IMD. These

units are responsible for recording agro-meteorological observations, preparing medium

range weather forecast-based Agromet advisories for the districts falling under precinct of

concerned agroclimatic zone and dissemination of the same. Concerned

universities/institutes have appointed Nodal Officer and Technical Officers,

xxxii

who prepare the advisory bulletins in consultation with the panel of experts already created

at these units. The Agromet bulletins include specific advice on field crops, horticultural

crops and livestock etc., which farmers need to act upon. Its frequency is twice a week i.e.

Tuesday and Friday.

Advisory Dissemination Mechanism: The weather based advisories, generated by 130

AMFUs, are being disseminated to the farmers through mass media dissemination, Internet

etc. A mechanism has also been developed to obtain feedback from the farmers on quality of

weather forecast, relevance and content of agromet advisory and effectiveness of

information dissemination system. The dissemination mechanism needs to be scaled up to

communicate advisories through multi-channel dissemination system including Radio, TV,

print media, Cell Phone-SMS, Internet and Common Service Centres of Department of

Information Technology. (Fig. 2)

FARMERS (THROUGH MEDIA AGENCIES,

IT SERVICE, PERSONAL

CONTACT)

District Level Agro-Met Advisory Service

IMD/NCMRWF

Agroclimate Level

Agro-Met Data

PREPARATION OF DISTRICT WISE MEDIUM RANGE

WEATHER FORECAST BY STATE MET CENTRE

130 AG.MET. FIELD UNITS

PREPARATION OF

DISTRICT SPECIFIC AGRO-ADVISORIES

FOR CONCERNED AGRO-CLIMATIC

District-wise

Agro-met data

DISTRICT LEVEL AGENCIES (DAO/KVK/ATMA/NGOs)

DISSEMINATION OF

DISTRICT LEVEL AGRO-ADVISORIES Feedback Analysis

xxxiii

In order to communicate agromet advisory in real time to the rural farmers in every district

of the country, District-level Agromet Advisory Service meetings with stakeholders in all the

states of the country has been completed recently. The prime objective of these meetings

was to develop a mechanism to involve district-level agencies (District Agriculture Offices,

Krishi Vigyan Kendras, Kisan Call Centres, NGOs etc.) for strengthening the agro-met

advisory service.

Augmentation of Agro-Met extension services by synergizing with Common

Service Centers (CSC) scheme

The Department of Information Technology (DIT) is establishing State Wide Area Network

(SWANs) to provide wide area converged network at block level across the state and

Common Service Centers (CSCs), one in every six villages across rural India in an effort to

deliver all types of services to the citizen at the local level. IMD shares the vision of DIT to

bring efficiency in farming sector through use of CSCs as an effective additional channel of

farm communication, in order to reach all sections of the farming community. National e-

Governance Plan of DIT aims to establish over one lakh Common Service Centres (CSCs)

across six lakh villages in the country by June 2009. The CSCs are ICT-enabled Kiosks

having PCs, basic support equipment like Printer, Scanner etc. The Scheme is being

implemented through a Public Private Partnership. Both the organisations, IMD and DIT are

working to develop suitable mechanisms to augment Agro-Met extension services by

synergising with CSCs through the following proposed interventions.

• Providing Meteorological Information (observation, forecast and products such as

agromet advisories) to the rural farmers at their locality i.e, villages, based on

districts and agro-climatic zones of the country.

• Meteorological information be linked with agri-productivity measures like farming

inputs/ precautions/ package of practices –information and guidance

• Supplementing necessary information on part of meteorology into the complete

solution for small farmers through integrated framework of the related stakeholders

like KVK, ICAR, Universities/Colleges etc.

• Weather warnings to ensure minimal losses due to disasters Establishing a two way

communication linkage through CSCs so that agri-related queries may be attended to

and replied.

• A mechanism may also be developed to obtain regular feedback based on the skill of

forecast, quality and relevance of advisories, problem solving by interactive mode,

answering questions of common interest through bulletins, accessibility to

information/ experts via ICT.

• CSCs may communicate local level observation (Meteorological, Crop, Soil,

Pest/Disease, Sowing, Harvesting and Other prevailing intercultural operations) to

the knowledge pool for generating relevant and specific advisories.

• Training may also be planned for the kiosk operators as well as farmers on use of

agro-met advisories in farm management through AMFUs with active support from

IMD/ICAR.

xxxiv

India Meteorological Department (IMD) was operating Agro-met Advisory Service (AAS)

on the basis of short range weather forecast at the state level, since 1976. Considering the

need of farming community to provide a service with improved resolution based on medium

range weather forecast, an improved service was developed and rendered by National Centre

for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). This service was operating at agro-

climatic zone level (127 in India) using 4 day weather forecast. Although quite successful

and useful in terms of benefits accrued, the present agro-advisory system is not adequate to

deal with crop management issues owing to weather variability prevalent at sub-district

levels. Further, the problem of spatial variability in weather gets compounded due to variable

cropping system, farm operations and soil conditions at the sub-agroclimatic zone level.

Keeping these in view, the Ministry of Earth Sciences has upgraded the AAS from

agroclimatic zone scale to district level.

Salient features of DAAS

1. Weather Observing System:

District level service needs meteorological observations at sub-district levels. The current

observation forms the basis for running the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models

and also refining the weather forecast generated at district scale. Also, the historical climate

data is needed to support the crop planning. IMD has a network of 125 AWS and a large

number of manual observatories. IMD is in the process to set up 550 additional Automatic

Weather Station (AWS) and 1350 Automatic Rain Gauge (ARG) stations in the first phase

of its modernization plan. With this, every district in the country will have at least one AWS

and 2 ARG stations. In addition to this, a network of 55 Doppler Weather Radar has been

planned of which 12 are to be commissioned in the first phase. Techniques have been

developed to assimilate large volume of satellite derived information. A new satellite

INSAT-3D is being launched next year. Through improvement in observing systems, there

will be further improvement in defining the initial conditions to run the numerical weather

prediction models which may lead to further improvement in skill of weather forecast.

2. Weather Forecasting System:

IMD has started issuing quantitative district level weather forecast up to 5 days from 1st

June, 2008. The products comprise of quantitative forecasts for 7 weather parameters viz.,

rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, wind speed and direction, relative humidity

and cloudiness. In addition, weekly cumulative rainfall forecast is also provided. IMD, New

Delhi will generate these products based on a Multi Model Ensemble technique using

forecast products available from a number models of India and other countries. These

include: T-254 model of NCMRWF, T-799 model of European Centre for Medium Range

Weather Forecasting (ECMWF); United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO), National Centre for

Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The

products are disseminated to Regional Meteorological Centres and Meteorological Centres

of IMD located in different states. These offices undertake value addition to these products

and communicate to 130 Agro-Met Field Units (AMFUs) located with State Agriculture

Universities (SAUs), institutes of Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) etc.

xxxv

3. Advisory Service Network:

Based on the above forecast products and the crop information available from districts, the

AMFUs will prepare district-wise agro-advisories. The DAAS is multidisciplinary and

multi-institutional project. It involves all stake holders such as State agricultural Universities

(SAUs), Indian Council for Agriculture Research (ICAR), Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVK),

Department of Agriculture & Cooperation, State Departments of Agriculture/ Horticulture/

Animal Husbandry/ Forestry (Up to District level offices), NGOs, Media Agencies, etc. This

project is being implemented through five tier structure to set up different components of the

service spectrum. It include meteorological (weather observing & forecasting), agricultural

(identifying weather sensitive stress & preparing suitable advisory using weather forecast),

extension (two way communication with user) and information dissemination (Media,

Information Technology, Telecom) agencies.


These weather based advisories would be disseminated to the farmers through mass media

dissemination, Internet etc as well as through district level intermediaries. The advisories

would be communicated through multi-channel dissemination system including All India

Radio (AIR), Doordarshan, private television channels, FM radios, print media

(newspapers), Internet (web pages of IMD, SAUs etc) and Community Service Centres of

Ministry of Information Technology, Cell Phone-SMS, KVKs/ District Agricultural Offices

(DAO), Kisan Call Centres, NGOs etc. A mechanism has also been developed to obtain

feedback from the farmers on quality of weather forecast, relevance and content of agro-met

advisory and effectiveness of information dissemination system.

The scope, accuracy and outreach of DAAS will continuously be enhanced with time as and

when newer products, technologies and scientific inputs are available in future.

REGIONAL NEEDS TO IMPROVE AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL

SERVICES TO VARIOUS SECTORS SUCH AS AGRICULTURE,

FORESTRY, FISHERIES, ETC.

Some problems with agro-meteorological services

The needs to improve agro-meteorological services could be determined in the following

way:

� to describe the system of agro-meteorological service in a region � to list the needs in agro-meteorological services from different groups of end user � to define the gap between “what are” and “what should be” � to number the problems, which have to be solved � to formulate the requirements for people, who will develop solutions and provide

them to end users

� to develop programs and corresponding courses to train those people.

The obvious conclusion from the above classification is very simple: it is necessary to have

at least three different strategies to improve agro-meteorological services.

Let consider the problem of determining regional needs from the necessity of improving

agro-meteorological services.

xxxvi

Within the first group of countries the existing systems of agro-meteorological services meet

the essential needs in agro-meteorological information (both operational and climatological),

in agro-meteorological parameters derived from observation data (variety of indexes, etc.),

in different agro-meteorological forecasts and reviews.

Education and training are conducted in the framework of universities, educational

institutions, colleges, etc. There are a tremendous number of consulting companies and firms

offering both an information services and training courses or workshops. There are no real

problems in providing end users with traditional types of agro-meteorological information or

products. New and promising technologies and techniques such as “precise agriculture” with

GPS-devices on agricultural equipment, map of fields from GIS-bases, detail soil

composition at every piece of a field require the next level of agro-meteorological

information – measurement of energy and mass flows within a field, taking into account

some microclimate relationships, crop development models accurate enough to evaluate the

growth of particular species. Possible difficulties are stipulated by no existence of

corresponding agro-meteorological knowledge.

But nothing is perfect. Real demand on agro-meteorological services is lower that could be

expected on the base of the above facts. The propositions on the market of agro-

meteorological services are not rich enough to attract attention and interest of farmers. We

provide farmers with agro-meteorological information, and after receiving such information

they must think and take some decision. But there are no ready-to-use solutions fitted to

current feathers of a farm, applicable procedure and current weather conditions. So if we

focus our efforts

on this problem the situation with agro-meteorological services should improve. If my

suggestion is true the trainees should be selected among top managers from consulting

companies dealing with planning new products or services. But this may partially be

applicable for Indian condition only and may not be true for other SAARC countries..

The second group of countries

The systems of agro-meteorological services exist and work, but, as a rule, they evaluate the

agro-meteorological conditions within big territories with the area in thousands of square

kilometers. Such information is of significant importance for regional and national bodies

but it is almost useless at farmer’s level. There are no agro-meteorological services for

farmers or they are provided with minimal number of agro-meteorological products or

documents. Agro-meteorologists and workers for agriculture are trained in the framework of

universities, educational institutions, colleges, etc. Workers for agriculture study

fundamentals of agro-meteorology during short period. In general agro-meteorology and

agriculture exist and develop independently - there are two separate educational and training

agro-meteorological and agricultural subsystems with minimal interaction between them. It

is necessary to develop agro-meteorological services for farmers, to teach farmers of using

agro-meteorological information and products, to develop agricultural services, which are

based on agro-meteorological information and products. The considerations about the agro-

meteorological services in the first group of countries are also applicable for the second

group.

xxxvii

The third group of countries

Agro-meteorological services do not exist at all or they are in embryo. The agro-

meteorological network is too sparse, the available volumes of agro-meteorological and

agro-climatological information are not enough to develop some modern agro-

meteorological services. Farmers and peasants have no experience in relying on agro-

meteorological information, which is resulted in no demand on agro-meteorological services.

The principal objective is to arrange enlightenment and education. In the conclusion of this

section it is necessary to mention an additional urgent problem for the second and third

groups – who (authority, administrative bodies, private companies, interested parties, agro-

meteorological community or somebody else) would design, develop, establish and

implement a system of agro-meteorological service) and who proved them with required

resources.

It is necessary to replicate the successful model of agro-advisory services developed by India

or other developed countries to be replicated in the SAARC countries with the following

objectives.

Objectives:

� To provide location specific weather forecast and Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service (AAS) as per different climatic conditions and cropping patterns.

� To implement an efficient outreach system so that the farmers receive weather based agro-advisories specific to their areas and crops on real time basis.

� To set up operational arrangements for AAS involving extension and information disseminating agencies.

Plan of work

1. Developing regional weather forecasting system

SAARC Meteorological Centre in collaboration with with country level meteorological

Centre may provide the weather forcasting information up to the district level or Block level

which ever is feasible. These information need to be disseminate once or twice a week to the

National Agromet advisory unit who will ultimately dissiminate it to the district level or

block level advisory unit for its effective translation in to agricultural advisory system to be

practiced or followed by the farmers of that district or block.

2. Establishment of Agromet advisory system network

SAARC Agriculture Centre in collaboration with National Agricultural Research System

and Agricultural Universities need to develop an advisory system network who can translate

the weather forcast information to farmers friendly agricultural management advice to cope

up with the forthcoming weather situation.

xxxviii


These weather based advisories would be disseminated to the farmers through mass media

dissemination, Internet etc as well as through district level intermediaries. The advisories

would be communicated through multi-channel dissemination system including Radio,

National as well as private television channels, FM radios, print media (newspapers),

Internet (web pages of SAC, SMRC, NARS SAUs etc) and Community Service Centres of

Ministry of Information Technology, Cell Phone-SMS, District Agricultural Offices (DAO),

Kisan Call Centres, NGOs etc. A mechanism also needs to be developed to obtain feedback

from the farmers on quality of weather forecast, relevance and content of agromet advisory

and effectiveness of information dissemination system.

REFERENCES :

Eakin, H. 2000 Seasonal climate forecasting and the relevance of local knowledge. Physical

Geography

IPCC, 2001. Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Inter-

Governmental Panel on climate change. Report of the Working Group II.

Cambridge, UK, p 967.

Lal, M., Nozawa, T., Emori, S., Harasawa, H., Takahashi, K., Kimoto, M., Abe-Ouchi, A.,

Nakajima, T., Takemura, T. and Numaguti, A. 2001. Future climate change:

Implications for Indian summer monsoon and its variability. Current Sci., 81:

1196-1207.

Sukardi, W. 1998 The meteorological meaning of traditional time reckoning: wariga and its

applications. Journal Agromet. XIII(1), pp.15-24. Indonesian Association of

Agricultural Meteorology.

Watson, R.T., Zinyowera, M.C. and Moss, R.H. (Eds). 1998. The regional impacts of

climate change. An assessment of vulnerability. IPCC II Report. Cambridge

University Press, 517p

It is suggested to prepare the document under the following broad heads:

1. Existing weather forecasting system at different level (National, Provicincial, District, Block & Panchayat).

2. Existing Agromet advisory system network at different level and

3. Existing Agromet Advisory Dissemination Mechanism at different level.

5. COUNTRY STATUS REPORT

2 Weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries

Mohammad H. Mondal

Director General (Retd.),

Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI),

Gazipur, Bangladesh.

5.1 BANGLADESH

Bangladesh 5

5.1.1 Introduction

Agriculture and climate are very much interrelated processes. Pre-harvest (seeding, weeding,

application of fertilizers, irrigation, pesticides, etc.) and post-harvest (drying, processing,

preservation, etc) operations are highly influenced by climatic changes. In recent years,

agriculture in the developing countries including Bangladesh has become seriously

vulnerable to climatic stresses like drought, flood, cyclones, salinity, etc. In Bangladesh,

drought affects annually 2.3 million ha land in kharif and 1.2 million ha in dry (rabi) season

every year. About 2.6 million ha land are affected by flood in a normal year. The devastating

flood of 2004 inundated 40 districts of the country and caused considerable losses to crops

and lives. Besides, about 1 million ha land in coastal region is vulnerable to different degree

of salinity forcing farmers to go for monocrop agriculture in the area. Timely weather

forecast may avert drought, flood, cyclone, etc. and reduce losses of crops to a significant

extent.

For the preparation of this country paper, information were collected from a) Storm Warning

Centre and Agro-met division of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), b)

Department of the Agricultural Extension (DAE) and c) National Agricultural Research

System (NARS).

The paper highlights the a) existing weather forecasting system of the Bangladesh

Meteorological Department (BMD), specially with respect to generation and dissemination

of such information to Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), NARS and farmers and

feedback from farmers to BMD and b) how timely forecast could help minimize the

productivity losses of crops. Necessary recommendations have been offered to take policy

actions for improving the current status of weather forecasting and agro-met advisory

system.

5.1.2 Existing Weather Forecasting System

In Bangladesh, weather forecasting on cyclones, storms, tornadoes, etc. are mainly provided

by the Storm Warning Center (SWC) and on weather parameters like temperature, flood,

drought, rainfall, sunshine hour, etc. by the agro-met division of the BMD. The BMD is a

government organization under the administrative control of the Ministry of Defence. The

BMD operates 35 Synoptic Stations (Fig.1) throughout the country of which 12 provide

agro-met information reporting daily to Agro-met division, BMD, Dhaka.

5.1.2.1 Storm Warning Center

The Centre is responsible for monitoring and issuing daily forecasts and warning on

meteorological events such as cyclones, storms, tornadoes, heavy rainfall, etc. based on (a)

Synoptic chart analysis, (b) Pilot chart analysis, (c) Radio Sonde analysis and (d) Satellite

(MT SAT, Japan). The weather data are disseminated mainly through print and electronic

media, fax, telephone and internet. The Centre maintains linkage with the Disaster

Management Bureau and Flood Forecasting & Warning Centre of the Bangladesh Water

Development Board to provide information on storm, disaster, cyclone, tornado, etc. for

public in general.


5.1.2.2 Existing Agro-met Advisory System

The agro-met unit was established as a division of BMD. The Agro-met division of BMD at

present operates its activities through a network of 12 agro-met stations (fig.2). The stations

record weather forecast information synoptically on rainfall, average max/min humidity,

average max/min temperature, flood and drought around the area. The stations are

responsible to collect weather data as inputs for the preparation of agro-met bulletin for

different end users. The data are collected twice a day at 0000 GMT and 1200 GMT from all

agro-met stations and submitted to the Agro-met division of BMD in Dhaka for

consolidation.

The agro-met bulletin is issued every 7 days of each month using the data collected from 12

agro-met stations. The forecast information thus generated are disseminated by e-mail,

website, fax and postal service to different end users mainly DAE, NARS, Agriculture

Information Service (AIS), Ministry of Agriculture, etc.

Fig.1: Bangladesh map showing the locations of existing synoptic stations of SWC (35)

Source: Agro-met division, Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)

Bangladesh 7

Fig.2: Bangladesh map showing the existing Agro-met stations (12)


The Agro-met bulletin is published based on the following weather information:

• 07 days actual rainfall in mm

• 07 days climatic normal rainfall in

mm

• Departure % of actual rainfall from

normal.

• No. of rainy days

• Max. temperature

• Normal max. temperature

• Min. temperature

• Normal min. temperature

• Average evaporation

• Average max. humidity

• Average min. humidity

• Average sunshine hours

• Weather forecast for next 07 days (rainfall,

temperature, sunshine hours, evaporation,

fog, hail, storm)

• Advisories for the farmers(selection of

technology, time of application of fertilizers

and irrigation based on weather forecast,

time of application of pesticides based on

the incidence of pests and diseases, etc.)


The bulletin also includes 7 days location-specific deterministic forecast (rainfall,

temperature).Deterministic forecast is based on GFS (INCEP, USA) model output.

Accumulated rainfall forecast for the period from 01.05.12 to 07 .05. 12 (7 days) is shown in

figure 3.

To improve the quality of agro-met bulletin and advisory services, model outputs of different

international meteorological centers, namely ECMWF (EU), NCEP (USA), JMA (Japan),

MRWFC (India), etc. are used for making deterministic forecast. BMD is experimentally

operating a WRF model of NWPS and GSM model of JMA, 1st phase of which is

completed. Second phase is in progress. A separate website is installed under GOB-

supported Climate Change Trust Fund (CCTF) project on pilot basis.

5.1.2.3 Modernizing Agro-met Division

The Agro-met Division of BMD needs aerospace Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic

Information System (GIS) facilities to obtain accurate weather forecast information. The

existing networks of 12 agro-met stations are quite insufficient to obtain representative

weather data. The stations should also be staffed with adequate number of manpower and

equipment, specially RS and GIS. The existing network has recently been expanded to install

8 new agro-met centers under a government -supported Climate Change Trust Fund (CCTF)

project. The new centers will have Automatic Weather Observation Systems (AWOS) with

telemetry to improve the resolution of the model output for forecasting and generate agro-

met database for research purpose (fig.4). There is also a need for few agricultural scientists

at BMD with expertise in ICM (Integrated Crop Management), RS and GIS to correctly

analyze weather forecast data on-location- specific technologies.

Weekly Agro-met forecast for the period: 01.05.12 to 07.05.2012

Fig.3: Bangladesh map showing divisions of weekly accumulated rainfall (mm) forecast for

the period: 01.05.12 to 07.05.12 Source: Agro-met division, Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)

Bangladesh 9

Weather Forecast and Advisory for the period from 01.05.2012 to 07.05.2012.

• Light (4 -10 mm) to moderate (10-22 mm) rain/thunder showers may occur at most

places over Rajshahi, Dhaka and Sylhet divisions and many places elsewhere over

the country with a chance of isolated moderately heavy (22-44mm) to heavy (44-

88mm) rainfall accompanied by temporary gusty or squally North/North-Westerly

wind speed 45-60 km per hour or more may occur at places over the country during

this period.

• Rainfall activity may reduce during the second half of this period.

• Weather condition of this period is suitable for aus rice sowing.

• Maximum and minimum temperature of this week may remain nearly unchanged.

Fig.4: Bangladesh map showing the location of new Agro-met stations (8) with Automatic

Weather Observation System (AWOS)



5.1.2.4 Conversion of Weather Forecast Information into Farmers’ Advisories

Proposed

The weather forecast information disseminated to DAE, NARS by agro-met division should

be transferred to the District Advisory Committee for preparing crop and location specific

advisories in consideration of farmers’ needs. The forecast information and advisories help

farmers plan for application of fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation and weather related location-

specific cultural operations. The operations should include selection of technology (variety),

date of sowing/ planting/transplanting/harvesting and other preharvest and post harvest

activities. Dissemination of weather forecast, preparation of agro-advisories and their

transmission to farmers are proposed in the figure below:

5.1.2.5 Dissemination Mechanism of Agro-met Advisory Services

Agro-met advisories are received mainly by DAE and NARS at almost regular intervals

from Agro-met division, BMD. The advisories are then disseminated to their district offices

through telephone, fax or postal services. However, the dissemination mechanism of DAE

and NARS with BMD is still weak. An effective and strong mechanism needs to be

developed with BMD to obtain feedback from farmers, DAE and NARS on the quality of

weather forecast information, its content and relevance of farmers’ advisory services through

training, demonstrations and review meetings.

5.1.2.6 Application of Forecast Information and Advisories to address several

risks to minimize crop losses

Agriculture in Bangladesh is becoming vulnerable to climatic stresses like drought,

flood, pest attack, etc. every year. The disasters have been occurring at greater

intensity and severity in recent years.

a) Drought and advisories to avert the risk(drought)

Droughts in Bangladesh are associated with late arrival or early withdrawal of monsoon

rains and sometimes complete failure of monsoon. Bangladesh had experienced droughts of

major magnitude in 1973, 1978, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1989, 1992, 1994 and 1995. Droughts of

different intensity affect about 2.32 million ha land in Kharif season (April-October) and 1.2

million ha in Rabi (November-March) season almost every year. Kharif drought affects

Preparation of forecast

information by Agro-met

division, BMD

Dissemination of the forecast

information to DAE, NARS

(national level)

Preparation of farmers’

advisories by DAE, NARS at

district level

Dissemination of advisories to

farmers’ for specific locations

(through media, fax, etc.)

Bangladesh 11

transplanted (T) aman rice whereas Rabi drought wheat, potato, mustard and pulses mainly.

Yield reduction of T.aman rice ranged from 20 to 60% due to Kharif drought. Yield

reduction of Rabi crops (wheat, potato, mustard) varied from 20 to 70% due to Rabi drought.

Advisories given to farmers’ mainly by DAE and NARS to avert the risk are shown below:

Crop Kind of risk Advisories to avert the risk

Aus rice Dry spell in March/April Timely/delayed sowing

T. Aman rice Dry spell in July/August Delayed transplanting, application of

supplementary irrigation

Boro(winter)

rice

Inadequate soil moisture

at transplanting

Early/delayed transplanting coinciding

rainfall

Wheat Inadequate soil moisture

at sowing

Sowing under minimum tillage to exploit

residual soil moisture

Rabi crops Inadequate soil moisture

at sowing

Timely sowing under minimum tillage to

exploit residual soil moisture

b) Flood and advisories to avert the risk (flood)

Between 1953 and 2007, there had been 42 occurrences of flood in Bangladesh. The floods

of 1974, 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2007 are worth mentioning. The flood of 1988 inundated

89,000 sq. km. land of 52 districts and that of 1998 inundated 100,000 sq. km. area of 53

districts causing considerable losses of crops, livestock, fisheries and humans. Flood

normally affects 2.6 million ha of land every year. Flood mainly affects aus/T. aman/

boro(winter) rice, jute and summer vegetables. Advisories given to farmers’ to avert the risk

are given below:

Crop Kind of risk Advisories to avert the risk

Aus rice Flood at harvest Advanced harvest at physiological maturity

T. Aman rice Chance of late flood Early transplanting of HYV/ late

transplanting of LIV of rice

Boro(winter)

rice

Flash flood at harvest Transplanting short duration varieties for

early harvest

Jute Early flood Early harvest through early sowing

Summer

vegetables

Early flood Sowing short duration

vegetables/cultivation of vegetables at

homesteads

c) Late blight disease and advisories to avert the disease

In 2008-2009, area under potato in Bangladesh was 4.64 lakh ha of which 16087 ha was

affected by the late blight disease. As a result, production of potato was reduced to about 67

lakh tons against the target production of more than 80 lakh tons. Foggy weather and

temperature of 180C or more that prevailed in December - January, 2008-2009 favoured the

incidence of the disease causing production loss of potato throughout the country. On the

other hand, cooler temperature (less than 180C) and bright sunshine in the following year

(2009-2010) was unfavorable for the appearance of the disease that resulted in higher

production of approximately 88 lakh tons of potato. In the subsequent years farmers were


advised by NARS to go for delayed planting of potato to minimize losses due to the disease

or arrange timely application of appropriate pesticides to control the disease.

5.1.3 Recommendations

� An MOU should be signed involving BMD, DAE and BARC without delay to

strengthen the present mechanism of dissemination of weather forecast information

and feedback of farmers, DAE and NARS on the quality and relevance of such

information.

� Agro-met division should be equipped with adequate number of RS, GIS and other

relevant facilities to collect accurate and timely information on weather forecast.

� At least two agricultural scientists with strong background in ICM (integrated crop

management) and skill in GIS and RS may immediately be placed at BMD on

deputation mainly to correctly analyze and interpret weather forecast data. Until the

creation of such new posts at BMD, proposed deputation mechanism should

continue.

� Strong training programs with necessary training aids must be developed at BMD

without delay to offer training to farmers, DAE officials and scientists of NARS on

weather forecast and agro-met advisory services.

� The Agro-met division should publish agro-met advisory bulletin based on major

crop seasons (winter & summer) for the farmers of different agro-climatic zones.

The proposed RS and GIS technology could be used to prepare such bulletins.

� It is also essential that all existing agro-met stations of BMD are equipped with

adequate number of expert professionals, supporting staff and Automatic Weather

Observation Systems (AWOS) with telemetry to generate agro-met database for

research

� An Agro-met Advisory Committee should be established at district level with

representatives from farmers and NARS under the coordination of the Department of

Agricultural Extension (DAE) to develop the agro-met advisory services.

� Agro-met advisory service is at present confined only to Crop sub-sector of

agriculture. It is proposed that the advisory services be extended to include

Livestock and Fisheries sub-sectors as well.

� Establishment of weather index-based Crop Insurance is also recommended with

provision of compensation for crop losses.

� Crop agriculture urgently needs medium/long range weather forecasting for

planning. A dynamic regional model should be developed to improve the

forecasting, long range in particular.

� In addition, it is necessary to establish an Agro- met Crop Yield Model. The model

needs to be calibrated under the local weather conditions of the country. Training of

the concerned expert is also required on the operation of the model. The model is

required by Food Planning & Monitoring unit (FPMU) of the Ministry of Food and

Disaster Management for estimating annual foodgrain requirement of the country.

Bangladesh 13

5.1.4 Action Plan for Implementation

Area of action Action time frame Organizations

responsible

Signing of MOU involving BMD, DAE,

NARS to strengthen the existing

forecast dissemination mechanism

Short term(6 months

to 1 year)

BARC, Ministry of

Agriculture

Providing Agro-met division with RS,

GIS to collect forecast information

accurately

Short term(6months

to1year)

BMD, Ministry of

Defence

Deputation of Agric. Scientists with

skill in RS,GIS at Agro-met division

Short term(6 months) BARC, Ministry of

Agriculture, BMD

Offering training to different

stakeholders(farmers, DAE, NARS) on

weather forecast and farmers’

advisories

Short term(6 months

to 1 year)

BMD,BARC,DAE

Publishing crop-season based agro-met

bulletins for farmers of different agro-

climatic zones

Short term(6 months) BMD,BARC,DAE

Staffing Agro-met division with expert

professionals and providing AWOS to

improve the resolution of model output

for forecasting

Medium term(1to 2

years)

BMD, Ministry of

Defence

Establishment of District Agro-met

Advisory Committee to develop

farmers’ advisory services

Short term(6 months

to 1 year)

BARC,DAE,NARS

Extension of Agro-met Advisory

System to include Fisheries and

Livestock sub-sector

Medium term(1 to 2

years)

BARC, Ministries of

Fisheries and

Livestock, BMD

Establishment of weather index-based

Crop Insurance

Long term(3 to5

years)

BARC, Ministry of

Agriculture,

DAE,BMD

Establishment of medium/long range

weather forecasting system at BMD

Medium term(2 to 3

years)

BMD, Ministry of

Defence

Establishment and calibration of Agro-

met Crop Yield Model

Long term(5 to 7

years)

FPMU, Ministry of

Food & Disaster

Management; BMD


5.1.5 References

Abedin, M. Z. 2009. Achieving food security at times of crisis: Bangladesh perspective. A

paper presented at the World Food Day, 16 October, 2009, MOA and FAO, Dhaka.

BMD. 2009, Brochure. Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Abhawa Bhaban,

Agargaon, Dhaka. 2009.

FAO and ADPC, 2005. Training manual for climate and flood forecast applications in

agriculture. FAO and ADPC.

FAO and ADPC, 2007. Climate Variability and Change. Adaptation to Drought in

Bangladesh. A Resource Book and Training Guideline.

Karim, Z. et.al. 1990. Soils publication no. 34, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council

(BARC), Dhaka.

Mondal, M. H. 1997. Drought management technologies for sustainable crop production in

Bangladesh. A paper presented in the symposium of Bangladesh Society of

Agronomy.

Mondal, M. H. 2011. Existing Weather Forecast Systems of Bangladesh and their potential

to manage different risks to minimize crop productivity losses. Bangladesh

Agriculture, 4(1)

Tuber Crops Research Centre (TCRC), BARI. 2010. Personal communication with TCRC.

Area and production of potato affected by late blight disease in 2008-2009.

Dr. L.S. Rathore, N. Chattopadhyay & K.K. Singh

[email protected], [email protected]

[email protected]

5.2 INDIA

India 17

5.2.1. Introduction

There are ominous signs that the Earth's weather patterns have begun to change dramatically

and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production. Thus climate

change and climate variability are concerns of humankind. The recurrent droughts and floods

threaten seriously the livelihood of billions of people who depend on land for most of their

needs. The global economy has adversely been influenced due to droughts and floods, cold

and heat waves, forest fires, dust storms, hailstorms, thunder clouds associated with

lightning and sea level rise. In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in

several ways:

• productivity, in terms of quantity and quality of crops

• agricultural practices, through changes of water use (irrigation) and agricultural

inputs such as herbicides, insecticides and fertilizers

• environmental effects, in particular in relation of frequency and intensity of soil

drainage (leading to nitrogen leaching), soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity

• rural space, through the loss and gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land


• adaptation, organisms may become more or less competitive, as well as humans



The Indian subcontinent has been exposed to disasters from time immemorial. The increase

in the vulnerability in recent years has been a serious threat to the overall development of the

country. Subsequently, the development process itself has been a contributing factor to this

susceptibility. Coupled with lack of information and communication channels, this had been

a serious impediment in the path of progress. India's vulnerability to various disasters has led

to mounting losses year after year. Mammoth funds were drawn to provide post disaster

relief to the growing number of victims of floods, cyclones, droughts and the less suspecting

landslides and earthquake. Indian agriculture is passing through a critical phase as the rate of

increase in crop production is barely keeping pace with the increase in population rates. As

more land cannot be diverted to agriculture, increase in unit area productivity of crops is

called for. Our recent experience is that the strategy of erring on the safe side through over-

irrigation, over-protection and over fertilization of crops has been counter-productive,

leading to a decrease in rates of crop production even under irrigation and degradation of soil

and air environments and pollution of surface and groundwater reserves. Despite

technological advances, such as improved varieties, genetically modified organisms, and

irrigation systems, weather is still a key factor in agricultural productivity, as well as soil


variability in local climates rather than in global climate patterns.

The challenges facing agriculture in the country are ever increasing. In the first place

agriculture is highly weather dependent and hence subject to its variability. Secondly, the

possible impacts of climate change may pose major challenges. Finally, the very

sustainability of intensive agriculture using present technologies is being questioned in the

context of Global Climate Change debate. The combination of long-term changes and the


greater frequency of extreme weather events are likely to have adverse impacts on the

agricultural sector. Changes in hydrological regimes will directly impact agricultural

production and production methods. Reductions in crop yield and quality as the result of

reduced water availability and precipitation variability could result in a loss of rural income.

This loss of income will be further exacerbated by the need for increased spending as a result

of damage caused by extreme weather events. The problem therefore has to be addressed

collectively by scientists, administrators, planners and the society as a whole.

5.2.2. Indian Agriculture & Climatic variability in recent past

Agriculture represents a core part of the Indian economy and provides food and livelihood

activities to much of the Indian population. Majority of the food grain production in the

country still depends on rainfed agriculture. Stagnation/decline in yields is due to the inter-

annual and intra-seasonal climatic variability. Agricultural production is frequently affected

by extreme weather events such as droughts and cyclones. Climate induced vulnerability of

agriculture cause plateau in agriculture productivity in the country. Wide variation of rainfall

and temperature not only affect the crops in kharif season, but the effects are also being

manifested on rabi crops in winter season. The year 1999 witnessed a super cyclone striking

the eastern coast of India (Orissa State). It was a major natural disaster affecting the

subcontinent in recent years. Droughts of 1972 and 1987; the heat waves in 1995 and 1998

and the cold wave in 2003 killing several hundred people are still fresh in public memory.

The drought and failed monsoon of 2002, in particular, an unusually dry July, is matter of

concern for scientists and planners (De et al. 2005). .Severe drought in 2002 caused heavy

crop damage. The year 2002 was a classical example to show how Indian food grain

production depends on rainfall of July and it was declared as the all-India drought, as the

rainfall deficiency was 19% against the long period average of the country and 29% of area

was affected due to drought. The kharif food grain production was adversely affected by a

whopping fall of 19.1%. Huge crop losses were noticed in Maharashtra due to unseasonal

and poor distribution of rainfall during 1997-98. The year 2005 was another historic second

worst warmest year, heavy downpour over Mumbai on 26th July, 2005 (Single-day the

highest record rainfall of 944 mm) and 3rd September, 2005 over Bangalore; severe tropical

storms in Andhra Pradesh in September; and floods in Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra,

Gujarat, Orissa and Himachal Pradesh during the southwest monsoon (June-September) in

2005 in India devastated cropped area to a large extent in addition to losses of thousands of

human lives Similar was the case during all-India drought in 1979 and 1987. Occurrence of

droughts and floods during southwest monsoon across the country affects food grain

production to a greater extent. Again in 2006, occurrence of droughts and floods devastated

rice and other crops in Andhra Pradesh and 40% cereal production was affected in Karnataka

due to drought Torrential downpour in June, 2007 over Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh

and Maharashtra while in July and August over Gujarat, West Bengal, Orissa, Bihar, Uttar

Pradesh and Assam, led to floods. Heavy rains again in September in Andhra Pradesh,

Karnataka and Kerala led to floods and thus the year 2007 was the flood year in India. A

huge crop loss was noticed in several states of the country due to floods in kharif, 2007.

Study of the multi-decadal changes considering the data of past 50 years in break days

during monsoon season show that number of break days are more (Table 1) in July as

compared to August.

India 19

Table 1. Number of break days

PERIOD

NUMBER OF BREAK DAYS DURING

JJUULLYY AAUUGGUUSSTT

0011--1100 1111--2200 2211--3311 11--1100 1111--2200 2211--3311

11888888--11991177 46 49 53 43 84 26

11991188--11994477 14 36 21 55 54 25

11994488--11997777 22 44 64 21 33 41

11997788--22000033 23 32 39 6 14 37

Data of past 50 years show that number of Break days are more in July as compared to

August.

5.2.3. Extreme Weather and its impacts on crops

The weather and occurrence of climatic anomalies/extremes in different seasons in the

country are i) Cold wave, Fog, Snow storms and Avalanches ii) Hailstorms, Thunderstorms

and Dust storms iii) Heat wave iv) Tropical cyclones and Tidal waves v) Floods, Heavy rain

and Landslides vi) Droughts.

5.2.3.1 Cold wave

Occurrences of extreme low temperature in association with incursion of dry cold winds

from north into the sub continent are known as cold waves. The cold waves mainly affect the

areas to the north of 20°N. Long periods of extreme cold weather combined with other

meteorological phenomena result in the loss of winter crops, fruit crops and vineyards due to

frost injury. Low soil temperature at the depth of plant roots causes frost injury. Such

reduction in soil temperature occurs with strong frosts, in the absence of snow cover and

with deep freezing of the soil. Most frost injury to winter crops takes place in the first half of

winter before sufficient snow cover has formed. In the second half winter, frost injury

happens in regions with unstable snow cover. Under low temperatures basically a plant dries

out and the protoplasm (the living cell) dies. Damage to the part of a plant does not always

result in damage or destruction of the whole plant. A determining factor is the degree of frost

injury to a tillering node, if it is heavy the whole plant will perish. The winter crops most

frequently destroyed by frost are those grown on uplands, where snow cover is less and the

depth of soil freezing is greater. The main agrometeorological factor influencing frost

damage in winter crops is low soil temperature at the depth of the tillering node. Long (three

days or more) and intensive cooling causes complete devastation of the crops.

5.2.3.2 Drought

Droughts have an immediate effect on the recharge of soil moisture resulting in reductions of

stream flow, reservoir levels and irrigation potential and even the availability of drinking

water from wells. The acreage planted to food crops is also affected by land quality. The

cultivation of lands subject to a high degree of rainfall variability makes them extremely

susceptible to wind erosion (and desertification) during prolonged drought episodes, as the

bare soil lacks the dense vegetative cover necessary to minimize the effects of aeolian

processes. Due to uncertainty of rains during the drought, farmers sometimes make several


attempts at sowing of seeds leading to a drastic reduction in seed reserves which in due

course are neither sufficient for planting nor for consumption.

5.2.3.3 Fog

Immediately after the passage of a western disturbance (WD), a lot of moisture is available

in the atmosphere and the regional and synoptic scale conditions provide the trigger for the

formation of fog. Even though this phenomenon is not directly related to the extreme

weather events, it has an effect in all forms of transport and wind speed at the soil surface

and to increase the cohesion of soil particles are both crucial.

5.2.3.4 Thunderstorm, Hailstorm and Dust storm

The arid regions are characterized by frequent and strong winds which are partly due to

considerable convection during the day. The usually sparse vegetation is not capable of

slowing down air movement, so that dust and sand storms are frequent. Winds in dry

climatic zone also affect growth of the plant mechanically and physiologically. The sand and

dust particles carried out by wind damage plant tissues Winds also cause considerable losses

by inducing lodging, breaking the stalks and shedding of grains and ultimately decreasing

the yield As winter season gives way to spring, the temperature rises initially in the southern

parts of India, giving rise to thunderstorms and squally weather which are hazardous in

nature. While the southernmost part of the country is free from dust storm and hailstorm,

such hazardous weather affects the central, northeastern, north and northwestern parts of the

country.

5.2.3.5 Heat waves

Extreme positive departures from the normal maximum temperature result in heat waves

during the summer season. The rising maximum temperature during the pre-monsoon

months often continues till June, even in rare cases till July over the northwestern parts of

the country. Notably the period roughly coincided with last two decades of the twentieth

century which witnessed unprecedented high temperatures globally as a result of the global

warming.

5.2.3.6 Tropical Cyclones

Though several studies by De and Joshi (1995, 1999); Srivastava et al. (2000) showed a

decreasing trend in the frequency of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Monsoon Depressions

(MDs) over the north Indian Ocean (The Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea) in recent years,

their potential for damage and destruction still continues to be significant. A severe super

cyclonic storm with winds of up to 250 km/h-1, crossed the coast in Orissa on October 29,

1999. This proved to be the worst cyclone of the century in the Orissa region and was

responsible for as many as 10,000 deaths for rendering millions homeless and for extensive

damage Over the past decades, the frequency of tropical cyclones in the north Indian ocean

has registered significant increasing trends (20% per hundred years) during November and

May which account for maximum number of intense cyclones (Singh et al. 2000). Coffee

and bananas suffer the direct loss of fruits and mechanical damage due to tropical cyclones.

India 21

Nonetheless, food crop losses were estimated to be higher (35%), while the livestock sector

was less affected (8%, of which one fifth was poultry). The effects of strong winds in coastal

areas are seen in stunted and often much sculpted trees providing the evidence of the

direction of the strong winds. Fields inundated by the storm surge suffer a loss of fertility

due to salt deposition, even after the sea.

5.2.3.7 Floods

Floods and droughts over India are the two aspects of weather associated with the abundance

or deficit of monsoon rains. A large number of studies are available on various aspects of

floods and droughts. In general, the greatest damage to agriculture results from high

intensity rainstorms with sufficient duration as opposed to the low intensity, long duration

storms. Direct damage to growing plants from floods is most often caused by depletion of

oxygen available to the plant root zones. Flooding creates anaerobic soil conditions that can

have significant impacts on vegetation. Root and shoot asphyxia, if prolonged, typically

leads to plant death. Chemical reactions in anaerobic soils lead to a reduction in nitrate and

the formation of nitrogen gas. The de-nitrification can be a significant cause of loss of plant

vigour and growth following flooding. Soil erosion, disruption to critical agricultural

activities, the logging of crops, increased moisture leading to increased problems with

diseases and insects, soil moisture saturation and runoff, soil temperature reduction, grain

and fruit spoilage and transportation interruption are the more significant agricultural

impacts from heavy rainfall.

5.2.4. Signals of Climate change based on historic data

Global temperature has increased 0.15 to 0.30C decade-1 for 1990 to 2005. Next two

decades, warming of 0.20C decade

-1 is also projected. Indian scenario is not different.

Climate change studies for India with respect to temperature and rainfall have already been

made by a number of workers (Hingane et al., 1985, Thapliyal & Kulshrestha, 1991,

Srivastava et al.,1992, Rupa Kumar et al., 1994, Rupa Kumar et al., 2002,Govinda Rao et al.,

1996, Kothawale and Rupa Kumar, 2005, Chattopadhyay & Hulme, 1997, Das & Hunt,

2007). Fig. 1 shows annual rainfall of India and fig. 2 shows mean anomalies of average land

surface maximum and minimum temperature (0C) relative to their respective means (1901-

2003) values in northern and southern parts of India. Studies show that Indian temperatures

are steadily increasing and mean annual temperature has increased by about 0.40C in India

during the past century. In general, it can be mentioned that an increasing trend in

temperature has observed in southern and central India in the post monsoon season. The

warming is generally been accompanied by increased diuranality. Srivastava et al. (1992)

observed increasing trends of annual mean, maximum and minimum temperature south of

230N and cooling trends north of 23

0N. A number of other workers (Hingane et al., 1985,

Rupa Kumar & Hingane, 1988, Rupa Kumar et al., 1994, Govinda Rao et al., 1993)

concluded from their studies that an increasing trend in mean temperature in most parts of

Indian subcontinent has been observed most strongly in post monsoon and winter seasons.

Fig 3 shows linear trend expressed as a percentage of normal per 100 years and Fig 4 shows

linear trend of mean annual temperature per 100years in 0C. Kothawale and Rupa Kumar

(2005) reported that while all India mean annual temperature has shown significant warming

trend of 0.50C 10 yr

-1 during the period 1901-2003, the recent period 1971-2003 has seen a


relatively accelerated warming of 0.220C 10 yr

-1 which is largely due to the unprecedented

warming during the last decade. As per the study of Das & Hunt (2007) frequency of intense

rainfall events has increased over past 53 years. Extreme rainfall events also increased over

the west coast of India (based on analysis of 100 years of data; 1901-2000). Analysis of

meteorological measurements in India indicates large difference in trends in the minimum

temperature and cloud amounts between north and south India. There is also asymmetry in

the increasing temperature trends between different seasons in a year. These observations

along with the occurrence of extreme weather events lead to the importance of regional

climate changes. The interplay between the aerosols, clouds and mesoscale flows around

Indian mountains in global warming atmosphere may play a crucial role in the regional

climate in future. According to Rupa Kumar (2002) the summer monsoon rainfall during

1901-2000 has shown significant decreasing trends in the sub-division of northeast India,

Orissa and East Madhya Pradesh while increasing rainfall trends in Konkan and Goa, coastal

Karnataka along the west coast and in Punjab, Haryana and Delhi.

Fig. 5 and 6 shows linear trend (0C decade

-1) in mean temperature and diurnal temperature

for 1940-90 for different seasons over India based on 27 stations Linear trend (0C decade

-1)

respectively. In spite of general increased in temperature over recent decades, there has been

decreased trend in Pan Evaporation (Ep) in almost all the parts of India particularly

significant in premonsoon and monsoon season (Chattoadhyay & Hulme, 1997). Fig. 7.

shows regionally averaged annual Ep anomalies (mm day-1) for the period 1961-1992 with

respect to the 1976-90 mean for different seasons over India and Fig. 8 shows regionally

averaged annual PE anomalies (mm day-1) for the period 1976-90 with respect to the 1976-

90 mean for different seasons over India.

Seasonal and spatial pattern of changes in Potential Evapotranspiration (PE) are similar to

those for Ep, but magnitude of changes is less. In monsoon and post monsoon seasons PE

has decreased over the whole country, whereas in the winter and pre-monsoon season the

trend is less consistence.

Fig. 1. Annual rainfall of India.Thick line-five year running mean

(Source: Thapliyal & Kulshrestha , 1991)

India 23

Fig. 2. Anomalies of average land surface maximum and minimum temperature (0C)

relative to their respective means (1901-2003) values in northern and southern

parts of India. The smoothed curve is obtained using 21 point binomial filter.

(Source: Thapliyal & Kulshrestha , 1991)

Fig. 3. Linear trend expressed as a percentage

of normal per 100 years, 1971-84 for

monsoon rainfall. Hatched areas

indicates negative trend & stipped

areas indicates significance at 5%

level

( Source Rupa Kumar et al., 1992)

Fig. 4. Linear trend of mean annual temp.

(oCper100years). Shaded areas

indicates significance at 95%

level

( Source : Hingane et al., 1985)


Fig. 5. Linear trend (0C decade

-1) in mean

temperature for 1940-90 for different

seasons over India based on 27

stations (dots) Dot size is related to

trend

(Source: Chattopadhyay & Hulme, 1997)

Fig. 6. Linear trend (0C decade

-1) in

diurnal temperature range for

1940-90 for different seasons

over India based on 27 stations

(dots). Dot size is related to trend


Fig. 7. Regionally averaged annual Ep

anomalies (mm day-1) for the

period 1961-1992 with respect to

the 1976-90 mean for different

seasons over India. Number of

stations is ten between 1961-75

and 1991-92 and 19 between 1976

and 1990. Dashed lines show best

fit linear trend.


Fig. 8. Regionally averaged annual PE

anomalies (mm day-1) for the

period 1976-90 with respect to the

1976-90 mean for different

seasons over India. Number of

stations averaged is ten. Dashed

lines show best fit linear trend.


India 25

5.2.5. Projection of climate change in India

Using a number of Global Circulation Models different scenarios have been generated for

the future climate change in India. It has been projected that average surface temperature

will increase by 2-40C during 2050s, marginal changes in monsoon rain in monsoon months

(JJAS) and large changes of rainfall during non-monsoon months. Number of rainy days set

to decrease by more than 15 days and intensity of rains to increase by 1-4 mm/day. Increase

in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is projected. The hydrological cycle is

predicted to be more intense, with higher annual average rainfall as well increased drought

(Bhattacharya, 2006). Fig. 9 and Fig. 10 shows rainfall and temperature projections at

different seasons. There is a predicted increase in extreme rainfall and rainfall intensity in

all three river basins (Ganga, Godavari & Krishna) towards the end of the century 21st

century. Number of rainy days decreases in the western parts of the Ganga basin, but with

increases over most parts of the Godavari and Krisha basins. Thus, surface water availability

showed a general increase over all 3 basins though future populations projections would

need to be considered to project per capita water availability. According to Lal et al. (2001)

an annual mean area-averaged surface warming over the Indian subcontinent will range

between 3.5 and 5.60C over the region by 2080. These projections showed more warming in

winter season over summer monsoon. The spatial distribution of surface warming suggests a

mean annual rise in surface temperatures in north India by 30C or more by 2050. The study

also suggests that during winter the surface mean air temperature could rise by 30C in north

and central parts while it would rise by 20C in southern parts by 2050. In case of rainfall, a

marginal increase of 7 to 10 per cent in annual rainfall is projected over the subcontinent by

the year 2080. However, the study suggests a fall in rainfall by 5 to 25% in winter while it

would be 10 to 15 % increase in summer monsoon rainfall over the country.

Future changes in PE over India and adjoining countries will increase in all the global

climate models. In the winter seasons, maximum models show increasing trend in PE over

southern and central India up to around 250N. In most of the model experiments maximum

winter increased in PE is of the order of 3-4% per degree Celsius of global warming and is

seen in peninsular and most central parts of India. In the monsoon season maximum

increased in PE over northwestern India. Inter relationship between PE and rainfall was

assessed by mapping the number of GCM experiments which yield and increased the P/PE

ratio for the monsoon season. A number of GCMs agree that P/PE ratio becomes more

favorable over northeastern India and changes in this ratio are less favorable in post

monsoon season and in the extreme south in the country. (Chattopadhyay & Hulme 1997).

Fig. 11 and 12 shows calculated change (%) in mean seasonal PE for CCC experiment and

the GFDL experiment for 10C of global warming. And Fig 13 and 14 shows mean seasonal

change in UKTR experiment and number of GCM experiments which yield an increase in

P/PE ratio for each season.


Fig. 9. Rainfall projections at different seasons

(Source: Bhattacharya, 2006)

Fig. 10.Temperature projections at different seasons

(Source: Bhattacharya, 2006)

India 27

Fig. 11. Calculated change (%) in mean

seasonal PE for 10C of global

warming for the CCC experiment.


Fig. 12. Calculated change (%) in mean

seasonal PE for 10C of global

warming for the GFDL experiment


Fig.13. Calculated change (%) in mean

seasonal PE for 1oC of global

warming for the UKTR

experiment.


Fig.14. Number of GCM experiments which yield

an increase in P/PE ratio for each season.

Maximum number is six. Areas of

agreement in the sign of the change

between all six GCMs are shaded.



5.2.6. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture

India, located in south central Asia, has great economic dependence on agriculture. A likely

impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in India is causing great concern to the

scientists and planners as it can hinder their attempts for achieving household food security.

Assessment of Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change is in Fig. 15.

Any major changes in water budget and change in temperature have major consequence in

hydrologic processes and agriculture and in turn economy of the country. The potential

effect of climate change on agriculture in India would be the shift in the sowing time and

length of growing season which would ultimately alter planting and harvesting dates of crops

and varieties currently use in a particular areas. With warmer temperatures,

evapotranspiration rates would rise, which would call for much greater efficiency of water

use. Also weeds and insect pests could sift.

As per the findings in the AR4 of the IPCC, Working Groups I, II and III, there will be

decrease up to 30% in south and central Asia by 2050. Sinha and Swaminathan (1991)

showed that an increase of 20C in temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton

ha-1 in the high yield areas; and 0.5

0C increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat

yield by 0.45 ton ha-1. Increased temperature is likely to reduce the wheat production

particularly in north India. Morey and Sadaphal (1981) reported a decrease of wheat yield by

400 kg ha-1 for a unit increase of 10C. Rao and Sinha (1994) showed that wheat yields could

decrease between 28 to 68% without considering the CO2 fertilization effects; and would

range between +4 to -34% after considering CO2 fertilization effects. Aggarwal and Sinha

(1993) using WTGROWS model showed that 20C temperature rise would decrease wheat

yields in most places. Saseendran et al. (2000) showed that for every one degree rise in

temperature, the decline in rice yield would be about 6%. Decrease in yield of crops would

be due to the temperature increase in different parts of India For example a 20C increase in

mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton ha-1 in the high yield

areas and by about 0.06 ton ha-1 in the low yield coastal regions. Major impacts of climate

change will be on rainfed crops (other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of

cropland area. The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a

temperature rise of 2-3.50C. The study found that increase in temperature (by about 2

0C)

reduced potential grain yields in most places. Regions with higher potential productivity

(such as northern India) were relatively less impacted by climate change than areas with

lower potential productivity (the reduction in yields was much smaller). Climate change is

also predicted to lead to boundary changes in areas suitable for growing certain crops.

Reduction in yields as a result of climate change are predicted to be more pronounced for

rain fed crops (as opposed to irrigated crops) and under limited water supply situations

because there are no coping mechanisms for rainfall variability. The difference in yield is

influenced by baseline climate. Overall temperature increases are predicted to reduce rice

yields. An increase of 2-40C is predicted to result in a reduction in yields. Eastern regions are

predicted to be most impacted by increased temperatures and decreased radiation, resulting

in relatively fewer grains and shorter grain filling durations. By contrast, potential reduction

in yields due to increased temperatures in Northern India is predicted to be offset by higher

radiation, lessening the impacts of climate change. Although additional CO2 can benefit

crops, this effect was nullified by an increase of temperature. It clearly indicates that the

India 29

yield of wheat, mustard, barley and chickpea show sign of stagnation or decrease following

rise in temperature at all the four northern states. However, the extent of decrease was

different for crops as well as there locations.

Agriculture will be worst affected in the coastal regions of Gujarat and Maharashtra, where

agriculturally fertile areas are vulnerable to inundation and salinization. Standing crop in

these regions is also more likely to be damaged due to cyclonic activity. In Rajasthan, 20C

rise in temperature was estimated to reduce production of pearl millet by 10-15 per cent. The

state of Madhya Pradesh, where soybean is grown on 77 per cent of all agricultural land,

could duplicitously benefit from an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. According

to some studies, soybean yield could go up to by as much as 50 per cent if the concentration

of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubles. However, if this increase in carbon dioxide is

accompanied by an increase in temperature, as expected, then soybean yields could actually

decrease. Changes in the soil, pests and weeds brought by climate change will also affect

agriculture in India.

There is thus an urgent need to address the climate change and variability issues holistically.

Climate change, energy security and food security are interlinked, and require an integrated

approach. Some specific options have already been identified, tested and documented for

climate change mitigation and adaptation for agriculture sector, such as sustainable land and

forest management; changing varieties; more efficient water use; altering the timing or

location of cropping activities; improving the effectiveness of pest, disease and weed

management practices and making better use of seasonal climate forecasts to reduce

production risks. If these options are widely adopted, they could have substantial potential to

offset negative impacts from climate change and take advantage of positive impacts. To cope

Fig. No. 15 Assessment of Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change

Direct effect on Crop Growth

� Physiology � Phenology � Morphology

Indirect effects

� Soil fertility � Irrigation availability � Pests � Floods & Droughts � Sea level rise

Socio-economics � Food demand � Cost & benefits � Policy � Trade � Farmers response

Agricultural Production & Vulnerability

Human intervention Adaptation strategies Mitigation Strategies

Climate Change


with climate change more effectively, it is necessary to identify integrated adaptation and

mitigation options for a range of agro-ecosystems so as to enable a favorable policy

environment for the implementation of the framework. The policy implications are wide-

reaching, as changes in agriculture could affect food security, trade policy, livelihood

activities and water conservation issues, impacting large portions of the population

5.2.7. Agromet Advisory Service to minimize crop loss


adverse effects associated with it could be minimized. Climate determines the general

adaptation of ecosystems and land use activities at any location. Year to year recurrences of

extreme climate events such as drought, flooding, hot/cold spells, etc. often have far

reaching consequences in agriculture. Advance warning of such events through climate

prediction can minimize various socio-economic problems which are often associated with

such events. The severity of the socio-economic impacts of climate related stress varies

significantly from one region to another. The impacts are generally more severe in many

developing countries particularly in SAARC countries where technological adaptations are

often very low, and where most of the agricultural systems are rain dependent.

Socio-economic challenges of the next century will include population pressure,

industrialization, environmental degradation, and anthropogenic climate change issues,

among others. Thus some climate stress in this century may be able to induce far more

serious socio-economic disasters in the next century. Advance warning of impending

extreme climate events, especially within time scales of months to years, would provide vital

information which could be used for sustainable agricultural production. Such early warning

information can also form crucial components of national/regional disaster preparedness

system which will help to minimise loss of life and property including damage to

agricultural investments.

Adaptation can be defined as any action that seeks to reduce the negative effects of climate

change. Several adaptation measures are available to reduce vulnerability to climate change

by enhancing adaptive capacity and increasing resilience. There is a considerable scope for

decreasing the vulnerability of agriculture to increasing weather and climatic variability and

climate change through weather forecast based agro-advisories.

A national meteorological or other agrometeorological service contributes to the national

economy, and obtain best recognition and remuneration for the investments made in

agricultural meteorology, throughout the effective use of information by the agricultural

community in the widest sense. Improvements in agricultural production may well occur

first where the inputs into agriculture are the highest. Such inputs are of a different nature:

genetic material, energy, water, adapted use of the soil and of the landscape and plant

nutrients, management and of course weather. The delivery of regular agrometeorological

advisory and weather forecasts for agriculture is meant to serve an important segment of the

county’s economy. The development of this service is necessary since modern day

agricultural operations are becoming increasingly dependant upon detailed and accurate

predictions of meteorological elements. Meteorological information is important for making

many operational decisions and agriculturalists need weather information both for long range

or strategic decisions and for short range or tactical decisions.

India 31

5.2.7.1 Integrated Agromet Advisory Service scheme

India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), is operating an

integrated Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service (AAS) at district level, in India, which

represents a small step towards agriculture management in rhythm with weather and climate

variability leading to weather proofing for farm production. Under AAS, needs of farming

community was defined through ascertaining information requirement of diverse groups of

end-users. It emerged, that prime need of the farmer is location specific weather forecast in

quantitative terms. Hence, the same was developed and made operational in June, 2008.

Thereafter, mechanism was developed to integrated weather forecast and climatic

information along with agro-meteorological information to prepare district level agro-

advisories outlining the farm management actions to harness favorable weather and mitigate

impacts of adverse weather. A system has also been developed to communicate and

disseminate the agro-meteorological advisories to strengthen the information out reach. The

institutional dissemination channels such as farmer association, Non-Governmental

Organizations (NGOs), input suppliers, progressive farmers are also employed. Operational

mechanism involving different organizations for implementation of IAAS is in Fig. 16.

Fig. 16 Operational mechanism involving different organizations for implementation of

IAAS

Ministry Of Earth Sciences Government of India

(AAS Steering Committee

IMD Agromet Services

State Department

of Agriculture

State Meteorological

Centre (23) IMD

AMFU (130 Agroclimatic Zones) – SAUs/ICAR

Institute/IITs

District level Agriculture Extension setup (512),

DAO/KVK/ATMA

Block Level (BDO) Farm Inpute Management

Village Level

CSC, DIT

NGO,

MSSRF

Extension Directorate of University

Local Media(AIR/TV/Print),

NGOs

State Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) 1. Drought Monitoring Centre 2. 2. State RS Application Centre

3. DAO/KVK/NGO

NCMRCWF-Location specific weather Forecast Development Department of Agri. & Coop. NCFC/ATMA/CWWG/ ICAR R&D Inputs Dept. of Space & Crop Information Prasar Bharati Department of Information

Technology


The main emphasis of the existing AAS system is to collect and organize climate/weather,

soil and crop information, and to amalgamate them with weather forecast to assist farmers in

taking management decisions. This has helped to develop and apply operational tools to

manage weather related uncertainties through agro-meteorological applications for efficient

agriculture in rapidly changing environments.

5.2.7.1.1 Activities under different Tier

This project is being implemented through five tier structure to set up different components

of the service spectrum. It include meteorological (weather observing & forecasting),

agricultural (identifying weather sensitive stress & preparing suitable advisory using weather

forecast), extension (two way communication with user) and information dissemination

(Media, Information Technology, Telecom) agencies

I. The broad spectrum of the activities of different tier is given below in Fig 17.

Fig. 17 Broad spectrum of the activities of different tiers

5.2.7.1.2 Weather Forecast for Agriculture

The weather forecast for agriculture is a specialized forecast issued to serve an important

segment of the county’s economy. The development of this service is necessary since

modern day agricultural operations are becoming increasingly dependant upon detailed and

accurate predictions of meteorological elements. Meteorological information is important for

making many operational decisions and agriculturalists need weather information both for

long range or strategic decisions and for short range or tactical decisions

India 33

An agricultural weather forecast should refer to all weather elements, which immediately

affect farm planning or operations. Though the elements vary from place to place and from

time to time, it should include the following:

• Rainfall distribution and its probability

• Temperature

• Wind

• Humidity

• Dew

• Dry spells

IMD has started issuing quantitative district level (612 districts) weather forecast up to 5

days since 1st June, 2008. The products comprise of quantitative forecasts for 7 weather

parameters viz., rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperatures, wind speed, wind

direction, relative humidity and cloudiness. In addition, weekly cumulative rainfall forecast

is also provided. IMD, New Delhi generates these products using Multi Model Ensemble

technique based on forecast products available from number models of India and other

countries. These include: T-254 model of NCMRWF, T-799 model of European Centre for

Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF); United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO),

National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA and Japan Meteorological

Agency (JMA). The products are disseminated to Regional Meteorological Centres and

Meteorological Centres of IMD located in different states. These offices undertake value

addition to these products using synoptic interpretation of model out put and communicate to

130 AgroMet Field Units (AMFUs), located with State Agriculture Universities (SAUs),

institutes of Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) etc. on every Tuesday and

Thursday. Weather forecasting system setup in fig. 18 below.

Fig. 18 Weather forecasting system setup in IMD


5.2.7.1.3 Special weather forecast for agriculture

Special weather forecast for agriculture provides the necessary meteorological input to assist

farmers in making decisions. The requirements for these special forecasts will vary during

the season, from season to season and from crop to crop. These forecasts are normally issued

for planting, applying agricultural chemical crop protection, forestry operations as well as

for serving other weather related agricultural elements associated with the crop and its

location.

5.2.7.1.4 Agromet Advisory Service Bulletins at different levels

The Agro-met Advisory Bulletins are issued at district, state and national levels to cater the

needs of local level to national level. The district level bulletins are issued by AMFUs and

include crop specific advisories including field crops, horticultural crops and livestock. At

present these bulletins are issued for 563 districts of the country. The State Level bulletin is a

composite of district bulletins helping to identify the distressed district of the state as well as

plan the supply of appropriate farm inputs such as seeds, irrigation water, fertilizer,

pesticides etc. These bulletins are jointly prepared by State Meteorological Centre of IMD

and AMFUs and mainly used by State Government functionaries. This is also useful to

Fertilizer industry, Pesticide industry, Irrigation Department, Seed Corporation, Transport

and other organizations which provide inputs in agriculture. This bulletin is a significant

input to the State level Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) meeting. Presently, these

bulletins are issued for all the states of the country. National Agromet Advisory Bulletins are

prepared by National Agromet Advisory Service Centre, Division of Agriculture

Meteorology, IMD, Pune, using inputs from various states. This bulletin helps identify

stress on various crops for different regions of the country and suitably incorporate

advisories. Ministry of Agriculture is prime user of these bulletins, which help take

important decisions in Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) meetings at national level. The

bulletins are also used by a large number of other agencies including fertilizer, pesticide

industries. District Level Advisory bulletins are being prepared and uploaded in the website

of Agrimet Division (http://imdagrimet.gov.in).

5.2.7.1.5 Translating forecast into crop advisories

Application of weather forecast to generate crop advisories is linked to accuracy, spatial

domain of validity and temporal range. In view of these requirements of farming community,

district level forecasts are issued for above listed parameters for next 5 days and same are

translated into crop specific advisories keeping in view their phenological stages for farmer’s

guidance on cultural practices.

District-specific medium-term forecast information and advisories help maximize output and

avert crop damage or loss. It also helps growers anticipate and plan for chemical

applications, irrigation scheduling, disease and pest outbreaks and many more weather

related agriculture-specific operations. Such operation include cultivar selection, their dates

of sowing/planting/transplanting, dates of intercultural operations, dates of harvesting and

also performing post harvest operations. Agromet advisories help increase profits by

consistently delivering actionable weather information, analysis and decision support for

farming situations such as: to manage pests through forecast of relative humidity,

India 35

temperature and wind; manage irrigation through rainfall & temperature forecasts; protect

crop from thermal stress through forecasting of extreme temperature conditions etc.

At local level or at farm level Long-range forecasts could provide the indications of

monsoon rainfall variability. There are at least four significant aberrations in rainfall

behavior that could upset established crop calendars and yields:






measures:



crops;



location;





livestock.

Whereas at regional level or provincial level it can help policy makers to take certain

initiatives on the following aspects to mitigate the adverse situation:

a. Water Resources Management: Water resources managers at catchment,

watershed and river basin levels could undertake proactive measures to manage

water resources. There is a potential possibility of introducing water budgeting

arrangements to prioritize water use and allocate water resources among various

competitive users. In areas where water availability for irrigation purposes is scarce,

a campaign can be launched to advise farmers to provide minimum irrigation only at

the critical crop stages. The lead-time available could be used for augmenting water

resources by constructing small-scale water harvesting structures and rehabilitating

old irrigation structures.

b. Compensatory Cropping Program: This has two dimensions. One is to try to

compensate for crop loss in the most severely affected areas (MSA) by intensifying

the production program and increasing yield in the most favorable areas (MFA)

where there are expectations of good rainfall and availability of assured irrigation

sources. The second is to make up the crop loss in the same area by taking up short

duration cultivars.

c. Alternate Cropping Strategy: This involves shifting of crops which could be

grown on the availability of soil moisture during less than normal conditions. The

success of this strategy could depend on government intervention in providing input

and market support to farmers.



agroclimatic zonation maps to evolve suitable cropping patterns, keeping in view El Niño

influences on rainfall patterns in various regions. Provincial level institutions would have

lead-time to provide agricultural input support, credit arrangements and technical advisories

to enable farmers to undertake contingency crop plans. Provincial administrations could also

provide support for marketing the agricultural products.

5.2.7.1.6 Weather Observing System

District-level service needs meteorological observations at sub-district levels. The current

observation forms the basis for running the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models

and also refining the weather forecast generated at district scale. Also, the historical climate

data is needed to support the crop planning. The India Meteorological Department (IMD)

has a network of 125 Automatic Weather Station (AWS) and a large number of manual

observatories. IMD is in the process to set up 550 additional AWS and 1350 Automatic Rain

Gauge (ARG) stations in the first phase of its modernisation plan. With this, every district in

the country will have at least one AWS and two ARG stations. In the second phase the

network density of AWS/ARGs will be further enhanced so as to automatically record

meteorological observations at near block level. In addition to this, a network of 55 Doppler

Weather Radar has been planned of which 12 are to be commissioned in the first phase.

Techniques have been developed to assimilate large volumes of satellite-derived

information. A new satellite INSAT-3D is being launched in the year 2009. Through

improvement in observing systems, there will be further improvement in defining the initial

conditions to run the numerical weather prediction models which may lead to higher

accuracy in weather forecast.

Under the AAS system, more focus has been started to be given to use the crop/soil

simulation models to decide crop management strategies, for the given weather condition.

Agricultural scientists at Agrometeorological Field Units have started using crop simulation

models as a decision support tool for helping with weather forecast based farm management

decision making as they are more objective. For example, the Agro-meteorological Field

unit can objectively assess the impact of skipping irrigation at a particular phenophase of a

crop on its dry matter yield though with some uncertainties. Agrometeorologists can

consider many of the factors involved, and answer the question with a reasonable estimate.

The crop models are also be used as technique for prediction of different phenophases and

final yield.

5.2.7.1.7 Agro-meteorological support for farm management

Weather based farm advisories as support system has been organized after characterization

of agro-climate, including length of crop growing period, moisture availability period,

distribution of rainfall and evaporative demand of the regions, weather requirements of

cultivars and weather sensitivity of farm input applications. All this is used as background

information. Following are the ingredients of a typical Agromet Advisory Bulletin to reap

benefits of benevolent weather and minimize or mitigate the impacts of adverse weather;

i) District specific weather forecast, in quantitative terms, for next 5 days for rainfall,

cloud, max/min temperature, wind speed/direction and relative humidity,

India 37

including forewarning of hazardous weather event likely to cause stress on

standing crop and suggestions to protect the crop from them.

ii) Weather forecast based information on soil moisture status and guidance for

application of irrigation, fertilizer and herbicides etc.

iii) The advisories on dates of sowing/planting and suitability of carrying out

intercultural operations covering the entire crop spectrum from pre-sowing to post

harvest to guide farmer in his day–today cultural operations.

iv) Weather forecast based forewarning system for major pests and diseases of

principal crops and advises on plant protection measures.

v) Propagation of techniques for manipulation of crop’s microclimate e.g. shading,

mulching, other surface modification, shelter belt, frost protection etc. to protect

crops under stressed conditions.

vi) Reducing contribution of agricultural production system to global warming and

environment degradation through judicious management of land, water and farm

inputs, particularly pesticides, herbicides and fertilizers.

vii) Advisory for livestock on health, shelter and nutrition.

The support on above is rendered through preparing district specific agrometeorological

advisory bulletins which are tailored to meet the farmers’ need and are made relevant to his

decision making processes. The suggested advisories generally alter actions in a way that

improves outcomes. It contains advice on farm management actions aiming to take

advantage of good weather and mitigate the stress on crop/livestock. Hence, while

formulating the bulletin one ought to know the crop condition. Ideally, farmer should place

request to the AMFU/IMD either directly or via the extension officer. But more often than

not, such information has to be assessed through field observation, media reports, farmers’

feedback, and remote sensing (NDVI etc) observations. The desired information is also

obtained by exploratory surveys or participatory methods of personal interactions with

farmers. The critical issues in this regard as summarized by Hansen (2002) are followed and

include: a) site specificity – that farmers are aware of spatial variability and can recognize

scale mismatches between the forecasts and their on farm decisions; b) temporal specificity –

including timing relative to decisions and impacts, highlighting factors such as onset of

rainfall, dry spell distribution, and weather conditions during harvest; and, c) skill of the

forecast – often in different terms from the forecasters but relative to the other risks within

their farming operations.

The bulletins are encoded in a format and language which is easy to comprehend by the

farmer. The agrometeorologists first interpret the immediate past weather and the forecast

for next 5 days and translate it into layman’s terms so that the farmers can understand it.

Thus, the agrometeorologists play a vital role in the encoding and decoding of the messages

from the meteorologists to the agricultural sector. Also, interaction between the AMFUs and

farmers to identify the weather sensitive decisions is promoted under the service. This step

enables a relationship between the IMD, AMFUs and the farmers so that they can identify or

diagnose the gaps in weather information available from the IMD. As the interaction

between the weather and agriculture is complex, it is not just a case of applying a simple

solution and expecting implementation by the farmers. So, an awareness process to

understand the influence of weather and climate on sustainable agricultural production as

outlined by Sivakumar, et al., (2000) is followed.


5.2.7.1.8 Management of Extreme weather on Agriculture through Agromet Advisory

Services

a. Cold injury and frost : A key factor in protection of crops from cold injury is

stable air temperature and snow covers throughout the winter. Thaws, resulting in

packing or disappearing snow cover, worsen dormancy conditions and reduce or

destroy the protective properties of snow cover. The prevention of crop damage by

frost can be controlled by breaking up the inversion that accompanies intense night

time radiation. This may be achieved by heating the air by the use of oil burners

which are strategically located throughout the agricultural farm Other methods of

frost protection include sprinkling the crops with water brushing (putting a

protective cover of craft paper over plant) and the use of shelterbelts (windbreaks).

b. Drought : In arid, semi-arid and marginal areas there is a probability of drought

incidence once in ten years. It is important for those responsible for planning of

land-use, including agricultural programmes, to seek expert climatological advice

regarding rainfall expectations. Drought impact is the result of the interaction of

human pattern of land use and the rainfall regimes. There is thus an urgent need for a

detailed examination of rainfall records of these regions. Agricultural planning and

practices need to be worked out with consideration to the overall water requirements

within an individual agroclimatic zone. Crops which need a short duration to mature

and require relatively little water, need to be encouraged in drought prone areas.

Irrigation, through canals and groundwater resources, needs to be monitored with

optimum utilization avoiding soil salinity and excessive evaporation loss. In areas of

recurring drought, one of the best strategies for alleviating drought is varietal

manipulation, through which drought can be avoided or its effects can be minimised

by adopting varieties that are drought-resistant at different growth stages. If drought

occurs during the middle of a growing season, corrective measures can be adopted;

these vary from reducing plant population to fertilization or weed management.

Rainfall can be harvested in either farm ponds or in village.

c. Dust storm, sand storm : In most countries, afforestation of fields is the main

measure to protect the soil from dust storms. Improving soil resistance to erosion

can be achieved by careful selection of cultivation methods, applying mineral and

organic fertilizers, sowing grass and spraying various substances which enhance soil

structure. It is also an important to reduce the areas where a dust can gather,

especially in tracts characterized by erosion. One major protection strategy is to

establish well developed plant cover before the dust storms period. This can

encourage a reduction in the wind speed in the layer above the ground by forming an

effective buffer.

When assessing the impacts of the dust storms on agricultural crops, it is necessary

to take into account the degree of the development of the plants. On well-tilled

crops, the deposition of soil moved by airflow is observed more often than soil

carried by wind erosion over long distances.

When looking at the conditions under which dust storms develop and by examining

the data on storm-induced damage, it is evident that measures to reduce the wind

speed at the soil surface and to increase the cohesion of soil particles are both,

India 39

crucial. Such measures include the establishment of tree belts and wind breaks.

Leaving stubble in fields, avoiding ploughing with mould boards, application of

chemical substances promoting the cohesion of soil particles, soil-protective crop

rotation using perennial grasses and seeding of annual crops are also important

rotation. In regions with intensive wind erosion, especially on slopes or on light

soils, strip cultivation may be used. On fallow lands, bare fallow strips of 50-100 m

can be alternated with strips of grain crops or perennial grasses and spring crops can

be alternated with winter crops.

d. Cyclone: Disaster preparedness for impending cyclones, as is known, refers to the

plan of action needed to minimize loss to human lives, damage to property and

agriculture. Preparedness for cyclones in the agricultural systems can include early

harvesting of crops (if mature), safe storage of the harvest etc. Irrigation canals and

embankment of rivers in the risk zone should be repaired to avoid breaching. Crop

damage by winds can be minimised or prevented by the use of windbreaks

(shelterbelts). These are natural (e.g. trees, shrubs, or hedges) or artificial (e.g walls,

fences) barriers to wind flow to shelter animals or crops. Properly oriented and

designed shelterbelts are very effective in stabilizing agriculture in the regions where

strong wind causes mechanical damage and imposes severe moisture stress on

growing crops. Windbreaks prevent the loose soil being lifted by erosion and

increase the supply of moisture to the soil in spring. Beyond this, as the storm

approaches the area, nothing can be done

e. Flood: Soils that are saturated prior to an extreme weather event are more likely to

be affected severely by a damaging flood than soils that are relatively dry. Fields

that have recently been tilled and are devoid of vegetation are much more

susceptible to water erosion. Vegetation that is able to use much of the water and

that can act as a barrier to moving water (horizontally and vertically) can reduce

flood severity and impacts. Water storage systems (rivers, lakes, reservoirs, etc.) that

are able to capture and hold most of the incoming water are usually effective in

reducing flood damage.

5.2.7.1.9 Adaptation to Climate Change & Climate Variability through Agromet

Advisory Services

Several adaptation measures are available to reduce vulnerability to climate change by

enhancing adaptive capacity and increasing resilience. Farmers can adopt coping

mechanisms that withstand climate variability through activities such as the use of drought-

resistant or salt-resistant crop varieties, the more efficient use of water resources and

improved pest management. Adjustments may include the introduction of late-maturing crop

varieties, switching cropping sequences, sowing earlier, adjusting timing of field operations,

conserving soil moisture through appropriate tillage methods and improving irrigation

efficiency. Some of the adaptive measures communicated through the Agromet Advisory

bulletins are:

• Adjustment of planting dates to minimize the effect of temperature increase-induced

spikelet sterility to reduce yield instability, by avoiding having the flowering period

to coincide with the hottest period.


• Changing the cropping calendar to take advantage of the wet period and to avoid

extreme weather events (e.g., cyclones and storms) during the growing season.

• Cultivation of crop varieties that are resistant to lodging (e.g.short rice

cultivars)which withstand strong winds during the sensitive stage of crop growth.

• Development of cultivars resistant to climate change; adopting new farm techniques

that respond to the management of crops under stressful conditions, plant pests and

disease

• Shifts on sowing date of crops for more effective use of the soil moisture content.

• Moving forward the dates of crop sowing in a crop rotation calendar and farmers to

plant a second crop that could even be vegetable with a short growth period.

• With increased evapotranspiration, orientation toward a shift from conventional

crops to types of agriculture that are not vulnerable to evapotranspiration

• Cultivation of heat resistant crop varieties by utilizing genetic resources that may be

better adapted to warmer and drier conditions.

• Growing of suitable cultivars (to counteract compression of crop

development),increasing crop intensities (i.e.the number of successive crops

produced per unit area per year), or planting different types of crops.

5.2.7.1.10 Dissemination of Agrometeorological Bulletins

The task of AAS is to provide information to help farmers make the best possible use of

weather and climate resources. While disseminating the information, it is presumed that the

farmers possess relevant knowledge and skills. Although concerted efforts are being made to

set up two way communications, but as of now the information flow is largely one-way. As

agro-meteorologists at Agrometeorological Field Units (AMFUs) have less frequent

interaction with the farmers, good communication and working relationships have been set

up with the agricultural extension, Krishi Vigyan Kendra (Agriculture Science Centres),

Kisan (Farmer) Call Centre etc. to promote participatory methods for interactions with

farmers. Due care is being taken regarding content of the message which must be relevant to

the weather based decision making by the farmer. This involves the identification of weather

& climate sensitive decisions and interactions between the weather forecasters from

meteorological Centres of IMD and the agriculture scientists from Agriculture Universities

and/ or Institutes of Indian Council of Agriculture Research to develop weather based

advisories and technological. Information is disseminated through multi-modes of delivery

including mass and electronic media. It include, All India Radio, Television, Print Media

(local news paper in different vernacular languages), internet (Web Pages) as well as group

and individual relationships through email, telephone etc. The use of electronic media such

as e-mail or the Internet is picking up as the access of these methods to the farming

community is on significant rise. The agrometeorological bulletins always contain dynamic

information hence, repetitive dissemination is being made. This reiterative process also helps

to address large temporal and spatial variability having significant influence of weather &

India 41

climate on agriculture. Critical factors for successful dissemination include relevance of

information to weather & climate sensitive decision making in agriculture, followed by good

outreach.

Based on the climatic variability and climate trends specific information are being

communicated to the farmers of the country through agromet service. Based on this inputs

farmers can adopt coping mechanisms that withstand climate variability through activities

such as the use of drought-resistant or salt-resistant crop varieties, the more efficient use of

water resources and improved pest management. Adjustments may include the introduction

of late-maturing crop varieties, switching cropping sequences, sowing earlier, adjusting

timing of field operations, conserving soil moisture through appropriate tillage methods and

improving irrigation efficiency. Options such as switching crop varieties might not be

expensive while others such as irrigation entail major investments. Changes in cultivation

patterns can include the reduction of fertilizer use, better management of crop production,

improvement of livestock diets and better management of their manure. In areas of recurring

drought, one of the best strategies for alleviating drought is varietal manipulation, through

which drought can be avoided or its effects can be minimized by adopting varieties that are

drought-resistant at different growth stages. If drought occurs during the middle of a

growing season, corrective measures can be adopted; these vary from reducing plant

population to fertilization or weed management. Rainfall can be harvested in either farm

ponds or in village tanks and can be recycled as lifesaving irrigation during a prolonged dry

spell. The remaining water can also be used to provide irrigation for a second crop with a

lower water requirement, such as chickpea.

5.2.7.1.10.1 Strategies for dissemination of agro-meteorological advisories

The Agro-meteorological Advisory Service (AAS) is a mechanism to apply relevant

meteorological information to help the farmer to use it for improving agricultural production.

The main emphasis is to collect and organize climate/weather, soil and crop information, and

to amalgamate them with weather forecast to assist farmers in taking management decisions.

This has to be done immediately after generation of the weather forecast as there may be an

emergent situation asking farmer to take management action in view of forthcoming weather

situation. Critical factors for successful dissemination include relevance of information to

weather & climate sensitive decision making in agriculture, followed by good outreach. The

task is to provide information to help farmers make the best possible use of weather and

climate information (Agarwal, 2002). To ensure delivery of information to the farming

community, a multi-mode dissemination system for agro-meteorological advisories is

essential in which beside the conventional modes (radio, television & print media), the

emerging modes of communication such as mobile phones and internet are also deployed.

More often than not, a wrong presumption is made while disseminating the information, that

the farmers do not possess relevant knowledge and skills. To smarten the service through

continuous up-gradation of service one needs back flow of information on quality and

relevant of information or demand for specific product, hence two way communication has

to be integral part of the dissemination system. As agro-meteorological information is

dynamic in nature and there exists a large temporal and spatial difference leading to a very

complex interaction between weather & agriculture, repetitive dissemination is essential


(Carlson, 1989). Deployment of communication model should be as per user’s need and

convenience.

The dissemination of agrometeorological information illustrates the vital parts of

communication. The communication include five fundamental factors namely, initiator,

recipient, mode or vehicle, message, and effect. The communication begins with the farmer

who formulates a request to initiator. The initiator must be able to interpret it into a scientific

formulation to perform the data analysis and prepare a message in a format and language that

the farmer can understand. The process includes; a) Identification of the clients or target

groups b) Identification of weather & climate-sensitive decisions that are made during the

course of day-to-day farm management. This step enables a relationship between the

meteorologists, agriculture Scientists, extension personnel and the farmers so that they can

identify or diagnose the gaps in weather information available from the National

Meteorological & Hydrological Services) Choose the right media which is available to the

targeted user groups. The communication channels deployed for the process can be broadly

divided into three groups;

� Mass and electronic media

� Group methods; addressing needs of clients having similar needs, hence benefit

from similar information. Therefore, uniform advisories formulated to address

critical decisions and provide the desired agromet information using the same format

and language. The groups allow farmers to be exposed to other farmers’ successes as

well as realize that they may encounter similar problems or obstacles.

� Individual contacts; time consuming but build good rapport & develop credibility

between role-players. It is a vital part of participatory technology and training &

visit method of extension.

In general, the use of more than one channel gives a greater chance of reaching the client or

user. The individual contacts can be time consuming but also build good rapport and help

maintain credibility between the role-players. It is a vital part of the participatory technology

and the training and visit method of extension. In identifying the clients, it is often useful to

focus on a specific homogenous target group likely to have sufficiently similar needs and,

therefore, can also benefit from similar information. Therefore, the same sort of uniform

recommendations, advisories, or information which are formulated to address these critical

decisions and provide the desired weather information using the same format and language,

etc. The groups allow farmers to be exposed to other farmers’ successes as well as realize

that they may encounter similar problems or obstacles. This encourages them to preserve and

to consider alternatives that may have been used by others. It also helps to share experiences

and opinions and identify gaps in the knowledge or information flow (Joyce, 2003). The

groups can be used in follow-up to both mass media and previous individual contacts. The

use of mass media has the advantage of reaching many more people with each action. The

format used includes electronic media (including radio, television), written bulletin,

newspaper, voice messages, SMS and Internet posting.

AAS has considered different aspects pertinent to the flow and content of information and

accordingly evolved a strategy for dissemination of agro-meteorological information.

Although concerted efforts are being made to set up two way communications, but as of now

India 43

the information flow is largely one-way. Although, Agro-meteorological Field Units

(AMFUs) have limited interaction with the farmers, good communication and working

relationships have been set up with the agricultural extension, Krishi Vigyan Kendra

(Agriculture Science Centres), Kisan (Farmer) Call Centre etc. to promote participatory

methods for interactions with farmers. Due care is being taken regarding content of the

message which must be relevant to the weather based decision making by the farmer. This

involves the identification of weather & climate sensitive decisions and interactions between

the weather forecasters from meteorological Centres of IMD and the agriculture scientists

from Agriculture Universities and/ or Institutes of Indian Council of Agriculture Research to

develop weather based advisories and technological. Information is disseminated through

multi-modes of delivery including mass and electronic media. It include, All India Radio,

Television, Print Media (local news paper in different vernacular languages), internet (Web

Pages) as well as group and individual relationships through email, telephone etc. The use of

electronic media such as e-mail or the Internet is picking up as the access of these methods

to the farming community is on significant rise. The agrometeorological bulletins always

contain dynamic information hence, repetitive dissemination is being made. This reiterative

process also helps to address large temporal and spatial variability having significant

influence of weather & climate on agriculture.

The use of electronic media such as e-mail or the Internet depend on the availability and

access of these methods to the users which is picking up in India particularly through

initiative of Department of Information technology, who is in the process of setting up a very

strong net work of common service centres (CSC). AAS is a scalable system which can be

incrementally developed and extended to cover all the farmers (crops) of India in a cost-

effective manner. It enables the farmer to receive both crop and location-specific expert

advice in a timely manner. With the advent of computers and Internet, emphasis is often

being given to electronic communication systems. However, TV and radio services are still

the best ways of communicating advisories among rural people as these are not only fast

methods, but also large and illiterate masses can be contacted. Broadcasting of advisories in

vernacular language provides an edge on other means of communication. Under Integrated

Agromet Advisory Service (IAAS) scheme at IMD/MoES efforts are being made to

strengthen the outreach of the agromet advisory as per the need of the farmers. Under the

project advisories are primarily disseminated to the farmers by mass mode, outreach at

village level and human face for advisory dissemination. Advisories are being disseminated

to farmers through following the multi-channel system;

i. All India Radio (AIR) and Doordarshan

ii. Private TV and radio channels

iii. Newspaper

iv. Mobile phone / SMS

v. Internet

vi. Virtual Academy / Virtual Universities / NGOs

vii. Kisan Call Centres / ICAR and other related Institutes / Agricultural

Universities / Extension network of State

viii. Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVKs)


Table 2. Status of dissemination through Radio, Television and newspapers in different sates

under IAAS is given below;

State Radio Television Newspaper

Andhra

Pradesh

Anantapur All India Radio

(AIR) station

Duration of 10 minutes

Frequency of broadcast:

107.1MHZ

ATP Channel.

Eenadu, Vaartha, Sakshi,

Andhrajyothi, Andhra

prabha and Andhra

bhoomi under different

headings viz.,

Vatavaranam-

Vyavasayasalahalu

Rythulaku vatavarana

suchanalu, salahalu.

Vatavarana samacharam

rythulaku suchanalu.

Assam AIR, Jorhat

AIR, Dibrugarh, 5 min,

The AABs regularly

broadcast in regional

language at 6.15 pm on

every Wednesday and

Friday.

AIR, Nagaon

Doordarshan Kendra,

Dibrugarh.

It utilized the AAB in

formulating agricultural

capsules in their regular

programs on agriculture

from January, 2002 at

6.25-7.30 pm.

Asamiya Khabar

Amar Asom

Twice a week (Wed &

Saturday)

Ajir Paharidoot &

Solangdo (both in

Assamese)

Arunachal

Pradesh

AIR Tezu (6.05 pm-6.30

pm)-AIR Tawang (6.05 pm-

6.30 pm)

AIR Ziro (6.05 pm-6.30

pm)

AIR Pasighat (6.05 pm-6.30

pm)

AIR Itanagar (6.05 pm-6.30

pm)- In Farm & Home

Section at MW : 444.4 mt

675 KHz

Doordarshan Kendra,

Itanagar

Arunachal Times

Chattisgarh AIR Jagdalpur. In Kisan

Wadi programme everyday

except on Sunday (7:21-

8:00) PM

AIR, Raipur

Krishi Darshan

programme on

Thursday 5:40 PM on

Bastar coverage

through transmitter.

Doodarshan Raipur

Highwat Channel, Dainik

Bhaskar Press, Hari

Bhoomi Press,

Dandkarnaya press, Nav

Bharat Press, Nai Duniya

Amrit Sandesh, etc. Dainik

Swadesh (All Raipur)

Navbharat (Bilaspur)

Nayee Duniya - (Bhilai),

Gujarat Rajkot - Kesari, Divya Bhashkar,

Sandesh, Gujarat

Samachar, Phool Chhab,

Akilla etc. Kesari publish

the bulletins regularly and

paper publish them

occasionally.

India 45

Haryana 1. AIR Hisar once in a

week Kisan vani

2. 91.2 FM

3. Community Radio station

CCS Haryana agricultural

University Hisar twice a

week 10minutes.

4. AIR Rohtak once in a

week Kisan Vani

DD Hisar Once in a

week Kissan

programme and some

time telecast in local

news.

Sity Hulchal: Local

cable channel , Extreme

weather events and

weather information

telecast in twice in a

week

Nabhchhor

Punjab Keshri

Dainik Tribune

Dainik Bhaskar

Dainik Jagran

Amar Ujala

Haribhumi

Himachal

Pradesh

AIR SHIMLA Every

Tuesday in 'KRISHI

JAGAT' at 7:32-7:34 pm

and On Next day again in

'Sunehrey Kirney' at 2:02-

2:04pm

DDK SHIMLA : On

Every Tuesday in

KISAN JAGAT

program at 5:00-

5:02pmAs special

report as and when

required.

LOCAL CITY

CABLE:

on Every Tuesday and

Friday in the news after

every 1 hr starting from

evening till next day

evening.

AMAR UJALA, DIVYA

HIMACHAL, APKA

FAISLA, DENIK

JAGARN, PUNJAB

KESARI,JANSATTA and

DENIK BHASKAR.

ENGLISH- The Tribune,

The Indian express and

Hindustan times

Jammu &

Kashmir

AIR-Jammu & Kathua

(broadcast at 6:00 P.M. for

5 Minutes in Khati Vani).

AIR, Poonch - biweekly

AIR Bhaderwah - biweekly

Doordarshan Kendra,

Jammu, (telecast at

6:00P.M. for 5

minutes in Soni Dharti

programme) JK

Channel & Take One

(telecast in Headline

Show at 8:00 P.M. for

3 minutes)

Dainik Jagran (ii)Amar

Ujala (iii) The Himalayan

Mail

Daily Taksin

State times

Kashmir Times

Kashmir Images

Dehaat Sandesh

The Latest

Daily Excelsior

Hindustan Times, UNI

Jharkhand AIR, Ranchi broadcast

DAAS on every Tuesday

and Friday at

between 6.30 and 7.00 pm.

DD, Ranchi telecast

DAAS on every

Tuesday and Friday

at

between 6.00 and

7.00 pm.

Prabhat Khabar

Aaj

Ranchi

Express,

Hindustan

Jharkhand Jagran

Dainik Jagran

Kerala Radio mattoli" (Tuesdays

and Fridays)

AIR Kannur (for Kasrgode

and Kannur districts in their

farm program)

Radio Mango

"Malanadu Vision”

and Trikkaripur

Vision and Kasargode

vision, They are also

giving the information

through their

agriculture

programme in twice in

a week.

Mathrubhumi

Malayala manorama


Karnataka All India Radio, Mysore

All India Radio Gulbarga

AIR Chitradurga,

AIR Karwar

Akashavani, Bhadravathi

Annadata Program of

ETV Kannada - Every

day till the next

bulletin is received

TV Station Gulbarga,

twice in a week

(Tuesday and Friday)

Chandana DD -

Bangalore duration 5

min

Vijaya Karnataka, Kannada

Daily, Bidar

Uttar Karnataka, Kannada

Daily, Bidar and

Local news papers such as

Karanja Express and Bidar-

ki-Awaz

Karanja Express

Bidar-ki-Awaz

Prajavani, Udayavani,

Lokadwani, Janantaranga,

Maharashtra AIR Ahmednagar

AIR, Pune' in Uttam Sheti'

AIRs Ratanagiri

Doordarshan- Marathi

Channel

E TV (Marathi).

Daily Lokmat, Sakal,

Agrowon, Pundhari

Ratnagiri times

Ratanagiri Express

Konkan Raja

Madhya

Pradesh

AIR Bhopal

Between 7.20-8.00 P.M.

Every Tuesday & Friday

Gram Sabha

AIR Chinndwara

Doordarshan Kendra

Bhopal

Between 6.10-6.30

P.M.

Every Friday

Krishi Darshan

E TV

Dainik Bhasker, Dainik

Jagran, Raj Express, Nav

Duniya, Nai Duniya, Fursat

People, Patrika, Nav Bharat

Krashak jagat, Desh

Bandhu

Swatantra Mat, Dainik Mat

Hari Bhumi, Lokmat

Punjab AIR Bathinda

Doordarshan Kendra

Jalandhar

The Tribune, Daily Ajit,

Dainik Jagran, Punjabi

Tribune

Rajasthan AIR Suratgarh

AIR Banswara

AIR Bikaner

Doordarshan Kendra,

Jaipur

E.T.V.Rajasthan

Rajasthan patrika, Dainik

Bhaskar, Seema sandesh,

Pratap Kesri, Lok Sammat,

Prashant jyoti, Seema

kiran,

Sandhya Border,Evening

Fighter

Tamilnadu AIR Ooty

AIR Trichirapalli

AIR, Tirunelveli

Udhagai T.V.(Local

T.V.)

8.30 p.m &10.30.p.m.

Aakash TV

Nam TV

Dhinamalar(Every

Wednesday and Saturday)

Dhinabhoomi (Every

Wednesday and Saturday)

Dinakaran (Tamil) -

Biweekly and regular

Dinamani (Tamil) -


Thinathanthi (Tamil) -


Nagaland AIR Kohima, Everyday at

6:15 PM for 15 minutes

- Nagaland Page,

The Morung Express,

Local dialect newspaper,

'Capi' (Angami dialect)

'Tir yim yim' (Ao dialect)

India 47

Barapani Bulletins are broadcasted

by AIR in “Farm Radio-

Kisan Samachar”

Programme weekly one,

Time 7.00-7.15PM

“KHABOR KHETI

KI” in Doordarshan,

Shillong (Directed and

edited by Shri P.

Chakraborty)

Time: 6.15-6.30PM

Assam Tribune

The shillong Times

U Nongsain Hime

The Mawphor

Nort East Today

Sentinel

Meghalaya Guardian

The Dong Musa

Lembuchera AIR Agartala,

AIR Belonia,

Doordarshan Kendra,

Agartala

Akash Tripura

Local TV Channel

Aajkal , Aajker Fariad

Dainik Sambad, Daily

Desher Katha ,

Syandan, Tripura Times,

Tripura Observer

Portblair AIR Port Blair in Kisan

Wani, Duration:10 minutes,

twice a week (Wednesday

& Saturday) at 6 PM.

DOOR DARSHAN

KENDRA, Port Blair

Programme: Dweep

Darpan

Duration : 15 minutes

Frequency : twice in a

week (Every

Wednesday and

Saturday at 7 PM)

The Daily Telegrams

(English daily)

The Echo of India (English

daily)

Dweep Samachar (Hindi)

Uttar

Pradesh

AIR in kisano ke liye

BIG FM Radio RADIO

MIRCHI FM Rainbow

Krishi Darshan

(Lucknow)

KTV (Kanpur)

SAHARA

SAMAYA(Uttar

Pradesh)

ETV (Uttar Pradesh)

Dainik Jagaran, Amar

Ujala

Aaj Hindustan(Hindi),

The Hindustan Times,

(English), Rashtriya Sahara

The Times Of India

Compact (Amar Ujala)

Uttarakhand AIR Nazibabad (Daily,

combined presentation of

UP & Uttarakhand)

AIR Rampur AIR Bareilly

Kishan Vani”

Doordarshan

Dehradun, occasional

ETV- Uttar Pradesh /

Uttarakhand TV

Channel under the title

”Mausam Evam

Krishi” for five

minutes from 6.50 to

6.55 AM on every

Thursday under

“Annadata Program” at

6.30 AM

Amar Ujala

Dainik Sahara

Dainik Jagran

Uttar Ujala

West Bengal AIR Siliguri

Doordarshan,

Jalpaiguri

3. E-TV (In

ANNADATA at

everyday 6:30am)

Etv Bangla Annadata

Program (telecasted

once a week)

DD, Kolkata,

Bartaman Patrika

(Wednesday)

Uttar Banga Sangbad

(Wednesday)

Ganashakti (Thursday)

Pratidin (Thursday),

Kalantar (Wed)


5.2.7.1.10.2 Dissemination of Agromet Advisory Services through Internet

Disseminating agrometeorological information is part of a process that begins with scientific

knowledge and understanding and ends with the evaluation of the information. The Internet

is one of the new and cost-effective technologies that can provide this information in an

accurate and timely manner. Additionally, the Internet can also be effectively used to offer

training modules to agrometeorologists to help them improve the quality of the

agrometeorological products, which they produce. Beside the website of India

Meteorological department and Agrimet Division, the agromet bulletins are loaded on a

number of websites which are maintained by collaborating agencies. The addresses of such

web sites are as follow in table 3:

Table 3. Addresses of website of AMFUs

AMFU station Website address

Basar, Arunachal Pradesh https://sites.google.com/site/iaasbasar/

Rahuri, Maharashtra http://mpkv.mah.nic.in

Ambikapur, Chhatisgarh http://igau.edu.in

Namakkal, Tamil Nadu www.tanuvas.ac.in

Jodhpur, Rajasthan www.cazri.res.in

Delhi www.iari.res.in

Solan, H.P. www.yspuniversity.ac.in

Trissur, Kerala www.Kau.edu.in; www.kauagmet.org

Jorhat, Assam http://192.168.99.1/dee/aaservices.php

http://www.aau.ac.in/dee/aaservices.php

Raipur, Chattiagarh http://igau.edu.in.

Junagarh, Gujarat www.jau.in

Jabalpur, M.P. www.jnkvv.nic.in.

Dantiwada, Gujarat www.sdau.edu.in

Jorhat, Assam http://192.168.99.1/dee/aaservices.php,

www.aau.ac.in/dee/aaservices.php

Hyderabad, A.P. www.agromet.ap.nic.in

Palampur, H.P. www.hillagric.ernet.in/info/kisano_ke_liye_soochna/index.htm

Raichur, Karnataka www.uasraichur.edu.in

Srinagar, J & K. www.skuastkashmir.ac.in

Junagarh, Gujarat www.jau.in

Hissar, Haryana www.hau.ernet.in/coa/agromet.htm

www.hau.ernet.in/coa/agrometpub.htm

Jagdalpur, Chhatisgarh www.igau.edu.in

Kanniwadi, Tamil Nadu www.oddanchatrammarket.com

Modipuram, U.P. http://www.svbpmeerut.ac.in

Raichur, Karnataka www.uasraichur.edu.in/info/infofile

Imphal, Manipur www.mosdac.gov.in,www.icar.org.in

Barapani, Meghalaya www.indiaweatherwatch.org,www.meghalaya.nic.in

www.icarneh.ernet.in,www.neigrihms.gov.in

Darisai, Jharkhand www.baujharkhand.org,www.atmachaibasa.org

www.atmaseraikella.org,www.sameti.org

Chhindwara, M.P. www.jnkvv.nic.in

Karimganj, Assam www.aau.ac.in,www.karimganj.gov.in

CRIDA, ICAR www.cropweatheroutlook.org (For 25 Units)

Pune, Maharashtra www.mahaagri.gov.in

India 49

5.2.7.1.10.3 Dissemination of Agromet Advisory Services through Mobile Phone

In addition to different multi-channel dissemination system, agromet advisories under the

project Integrated Agromet Advisory Service (IAAS) are being disseminated to the farming

community in India through SMS and IVR (Interactive Voice Response Technology). Under

the SMS system an information platform has been created which allows the existing

Agromet Field Units (AMFUs) located at State Agriculture Universities (SAUs), institutes of

Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR), Indian Institute of Technology (IITs) etc. to

provide the information in a convenient and timely manner. The advisories are crop and

location specific and delivered within actionable time to the farmers. Under IVR system the

information from AMFUs for each state are collected and then stored, and converted into

voice where the farmer would be calling and receiving the desired information.

A number of private firms namely Reuter Market Light, Handygo, Vritti Solution, IFFCO

Kisan Sanchar Limited (IKSL) and NOKIA Life Tools is disseminating the agromet

advisories generated under IAAS through SMS and Interactive Voice. At present 16 states

namely Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, West

Bengal, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra and

Himachal Pradesh have been covered under this service. Advisory are also disseminated

through SMS to the farming community of Maharashtra in collaboration with the State

Department of Agriculture, Government of Maharashtra.

Public Private Partnership for agromet advisory dissemination:

In the era of emerging IT arena in India many private companies have joined hands with

IMD to deliver weather based agricultural information to the farmers using multiple modes

of information communication. As some of the farmers are willing to pay for the

information, IMD has tied up with different public and private organizations, which are

already working in dissemination of agricultural information to the rural village. The

dissemination technology employed under this are mainly based on Information Technology

(IT) and includes Internet based communication systems and Mobile phone based

communication system. The most advantageous feature of mobile phone based systems is

that farmers can communicate with the web-based systems, while in the field and thus

request for advice concerning a newly discovered problem. The IMD has so far partnered

with Reuter Market Light (RML), Handygo, Maharashtra State Agriculture Department

(Government of Maharashtra), Vritti Solutions, IFFCO Kisan Sanchar Ltd. (IKSL), NOKIA

Life Tools and TATA Consultancy Services (TCS).

IMD and Reuter Market Light (RML) are working together to disseminate weather and

Agrimet crop/livestock advisory developed by Agromet Field Units (AMFUs) located at

State Agriculture Universities (SAUs), IITs, Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR)

etc. Reuter Market Light delivery platform is in fig. 19. Such weather based advisory

bulletins help farmers to decide cultural management actions and also manage the farm

inputs which all are highly weather sensitive. At present the advisories are being

disseminated to thirteen states. RML already created an information platform which allows

the AMFUs to provide the information in a convenient and timely manner. The information

is basically crop and region specific and delivered within actionable time to the farmers. The

project’s experience would be leveraged upon to create a scalable model which can expand


across India and utilize the information developed for all the 640 districts of the country. The

information cover realized weather information, 5 day forecasts, weather forecast based crop

& live-stock advisories and special alerts or warnings for severe weather conditions. This

information are being provided to farmers on their mobile phones in the form of SMS as part

of the RML service, stating IMD as the source. The information enables them to take

appropriate actions resulting in tangible benefits.

Fig. 19. Reuter Market Light (RML) delivery platform

Handygo is a Telecom Value Added Services company based at New Delhi and maintains a

very healthy relation with leading mobile operators in the industry. Handygo delivery setup

is in fig. 20. The company is disseminating agromet advisories through IVR (Interactive

Voice Response) system to five states (Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra, Gujarat and West

Bengal) in the country. Its rural IVR service on 55678 by is designed to serve Farmers

through providing information on weather, crops, livestock & fisheries, Govt. & Bank

offerings for rural, Health, Family Planning, Mandi Rates etc. It fetch information from IMD

for each state and store it in our database. Thereafter, we would be converting these data into

voice and then transferring the information into the Network where the farmer would be

calling and receiving the desired information. Handygo plans to launch this rural service in

India 51

23 different states in the country and have the Weather Based Agro Advisory as a part of its

IVR solution for the farmers. The delivery of the content is in Regional Languages. A

feedback mechanism in which farmers can let us know that how relevant the information

provided by IMD has also been set up.

Fig. 20 Handygo delivery platform

Vritti Solutions Limited is a company working for enabling IT in the rural parts of India and

having background of working for 16 years in the software for variety of businesses

primarily to cater agriculture and rural population. They have developed interactive software

through which the advisories are being sent to the farmers in the Maharashtra State.

IFFCO Kisan Sanchar Limited (IKSL) is providing Value added services to the farmers

through the mobile channel. Five Voice messages per day of importance to farmers are sent

free of cost to the farmers which cover area of their immediate interest. The uniqueness of

the messages is that they are in local languages and conveyed by local people. Location

specific orientation is provided by channelizing local resources to share information related

to local needs. IFFCO has started to disseminate agromet advisory through five voice

messages per day to the farmers in free of cost which cover area of their immediate interest.

Initially in 16 states they have started this project namely Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab,

Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala,

Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra and Himachal Pradesh. The broad areas

presently covered are recommendation for farmers on best agricultural practices, nutrient


related issues, animal husbandry, and information on nearest mandies, input on weather &

climate and appropriate rural technologies.

Nokia is a world leader in mobile communications, driving the growth and sustainability of

the broader mobility industry. Nokia connects people to each other and the information that

matters to them with easy-to-use and innovative products like mobile phones, devices and

solutions for learning, livelihood, imaging, games, media and businesses. Delivery Platform

of NOKIA Life Tools is shown in fig. 21.

Nokia Life Tools is delivering information to the farmers who have subscribed to the Ovi

Life Tools Service from Nokia. This information is delivered to the farmers via SMS service

on their mobile phones. Nokia is giving this service in the States Maharashtra, Andhra

Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala,

Rajasthan and Punjab.

Nokia Life Tools is taking this information from the various AMFUs affiliated to IMD

using its technology infrastructure. Also IMD & Nokia is doing Joint awareness Programme

(for eg. Farmer Meets) to spread more information about the service to the target audience.

Tips and Advices on Specific Crops

Market Prices

Weather Updates & Forecasts

Agriculture News

Fig. 21 Relevant and Personalized Information Delivery through Nokia Life Tools

India 53

State Department of Agriculture, Government of Maharashtra is sending SMS to the farmers

in the villages of the state through the website www.Mahaagri.gov.in. In addition the other

areas of service, agromet advisories are also being sent through the sites.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has already signed a MoU with IMD. It proposes to

provide the personalized agro advisory generated under IAAS in local language on the

handset of the farmers using mKRISHI platform on the compatible handsets of the farmers.

The mKRISHI platform would be in operative mode shortly. It solves the problem of

dissemination and delivery of dynamic content available on web through mobile application

and will have a personalization filter which enable to disseminate the information relevant to

the farmer. It allows to easily staying informed by retrieving the latest content from the

relevant sites interested in while ensuring privacy as one is not required to subscribe

newsletter or join any sites.

Status of SMS service through different dissemination agencies is given in Table 4.

Name of the Service

Provider

States under their jurisdiction Total number

of SMS

Reuter Market Light Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra, Gujarat and

West Bengal 317788

Handygo Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra, Gujarat and

West Bengal 240000

Vritti Solutions Maharashtra 3930

IFFCO Kisan Sanchar Ltd. Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana,

Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, West

Bengal, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala,

Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar,

Maharashtra and Himachal Pradesh

1081002

NOKIA Life Tools Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka,

Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu,

Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, Rajasthan and

Punjab.

900000

State Department of

Agriculture, Government

of Maharashtra

Maharashtra 200000

Total 2742720

5.2.7.1.10.4 New Proposals on dissemination of Agromet Advisories

a. Common Service Centre (CSC)

CSCs constitute one of the three pillars of the National e-Governance Plan for enabling

anytime anywhere delivery of government services. The collaborative scheme with IMD will

be implemented through a Public Private partnership. CSC will be having following

objectives

• Providing Meteorological Information (observation, forecast and products such as

agromet advisories) to the rural farmers at their locality i.e., villages, based on

districts of the country


• Meteorological information be linked with agri-productivity measures as like

farming inputs/ precautions/ package of practices –information & guidance


solution for small farmers through integrated framework of the related

stakeholders like KVK, ICAR, University-Colleges etc.

• Weather warnings to ensure minimizing disaster losses

• Establishing a two way communication linkage through CSCs so that agri-related

queries may attended and replied.

• A mechanism may also be developed to obtain regular feedback based on the skill

of forecast, quality & relevance of advisories, problem solving through interactive

mode, answering questions of common interest through bulletins, accessibility to


• CSCs may communicate local level observation (Meteorological, Crop, Soil,

Pest/Disease, Sowing, Harvesting & Other prevailing intercultural operations) to

knowledge pool for generating the relevant and specific advisories.

• Training may also be planned for the kiosk operators as well as farmers on use of

agromet advisories in farm management through AMFUs with active support from

IMD/ICAR.

b. ITC E- Choupal

It has been decided to disseminate the Agro Met advisories on e-Choupal platform. ITC has

about 6500 e-Choupals covering approximately 40,000 villages providing the information on

weather, agronomic practice, and market information to the farmers on daily basis, free of

cost. This provides opportunity to benefit a large number of farmers who can plan the

farming operations to maximize benefit in case of favorable weather conditions or take

appropriate actions for mitigation of risk due to adverse weather. The advisories will also be

disseminated through mobiles to farmers. ITC has a huge database of farmers which can be

leveraged to advise any sudden climate variability apart from normal weather advisory. IMD

will provide the weather information on-line by emails to ITC branches in respective states

to facilitate almost real time up-dating and dissemination on e-Choupal website. The e-

choupal links knowledge and technology transfer for creation of economic and social

capacity and provide an end to end solution with the farmer having the freedom of choice

based on informed decision making notwithstanding the heterogeneity and weak

infrastructure.

Under the e-Choupal set up, a Sanchalak (lead/Progressive farmer) is appointed for about 3 –

5 villages. At the Sanchalak’s house an ITC kiosk with Internet access has been installed.

The farmer is trained to operate this infrastructure and disseminate information on market

prices, weather and agricultural best practices. Group of 3 – 5 villages has been made to

ensure that the kiosk is within walking distance for the farmers. The active participation of

farmers in this rural initiative has created a sense of ownership in the project among the

farmers. For every 35- 40 e-Choupal, ITC has created a hub which is located such that the

farmer need not travel more than 30 Kms to transact. The Hub is being managed by a

India 55

“Sanyojak” whose role is to manage operations including labor, logistics, Cash distribution

etc. Through the kiosk the farmers access ready information in their local language on the

weather & market prices, disseminate knowledge on scientific farm practices & risk

management, usage of farm inputs. Real-time information and customized knowledge

provided by 'e-Choupal' enhances the ability of farmers to take decisions and align their farm

output with market demand and secure quality & productivity.

c. National Bank for Agriculture and Rural development (NABARD)

NABARD is set up as an apex Development Bank with a mandate for facilitating credit flow

for promotion and development of agriculture, small-scale industries, cottage and village

industries, handicrafts and other rural crafts. It also has the mandate to support all other

allied economic activities in rural areas, promote integrated and sustainable rural

development and secure prosperity of rural areas. Joint collaborative project with IMD aims

at dissemination of:

• Need-based agro-meteorological advisory services to the farmers at the right time

based on local context and culture.

• To bring together experts and grassroots level communities in a two-way

communication with the objective of making knowledge accessible to village of

the country.

• Dissemination of Agro-Advisory and feedback from farmers through the

involvement of Farmers’ clubs, Joint Liability Groups, Village watershed

Committees in areas where Watershed projects are being implemented & self help

groups.

• R&D in Operational Agro-meteorology.

d. MS Swaminathan Research Foundation

M S Swaminathan Research Foundation is a non-profit research organization and was

established in 1988. M S Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF) has all along been

developing and following a pro-nature, pro-poor, pro-women and pro-sustainable on-farm

and non-farm livelihoods through appropriate eco-technology and knowledge empowerment.

Weather related needs for agriculture and allied activities to IMD to provide the location

specific, agro-meteorological advisory services to the farming and fishing communities

through VRCs and VKCs. The advisories will be disseminated through different

communication tools. The proposed project sites of this project are in Tamilnadu are

Thiruvaiyaru VRC (Thanjavur District), Annavasal (Pudukkottai District), Nagapattinam

(Nagapattinam District), Chidambaram (Cuddalore District) and Sempatti VRC (Dindigul

District).The proposed project sites in Union Territory of Puducherry are Puducherry and

Karikkal.The proposed project sites in Maharashtra are Waifad VRC (Wardha District),

Yavatmal (Yavatmal District), Jasapur VRC (Amaravati District) and Karda VRC (Washim

District) in Vidarbha region. The proposed project site in Orissa is Jeypore VRC (Koraput

District).


Beside above ongoing and proposed initiatives, the linkage of agrometeorological service is

also being established with some other ICT companies, operating in rendering Agriculture

Services, like aAqua, Kissan Kerala, ITC e-Choupal, India Development Gateway,

agropedia, mahindra Kisan Mitra, iKisan, Agmarknet and IBM for enhancing the access of

information to the farmers. Besides above efforts, there is a plan to disseminate this service

through Narrowcasting Centre of Prasar Bharati, FM channel of AIR and Community Radio

Stations which are emerging. The ultimate aim is to disseminate advisories to farmers on real

time basis to save farm inputs and increase crop yield in a more profitable manner.

5.2.8. Farmers Awareness on AAS through Roving Seminars

Efforts made by Ministry of Earth Sciences, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian

Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR), State Agricultural Universities (SAUs),

Union/State Departments of Agriculture and other collaborative agencies through

Agrometeorological Advisory Service (AAS) have demonstrated the role of weather forecast

in increasing overall preparedness of farmers, leading to substantially better outcomes

overall. However, more efforts are needed to assist farmers to further develop their adaptive

capacity with improved planning and better management decisions. Hence, more effective

approaches to delivery of climate and weather information to farmers through participatory,

cross-disciplinary approach is being carried out through enhancing awareness of information

user groups. It is done through organizing farmer’s awareness programs, also termed as

roving seminar that brings together research and development institutions, relevant

disciplines, and farmers as equal partners to reap the benefits from weather and climate

knowledge. Given the current concerns with climate change and it’s impacts on crop

productivity, there is an urgent need to sensitize the farmers about the increased weather

variability, in their regions, and different adaptation strategies that can be considered to cope

with the extreme weather situations. Examples of more general decisions that can be aided

by targeted weather information include strategic and tactical crop management options,

agricultural commodity marketing etc.

Such programs help increase the interaction between the local farming communities and the

Meteorological Centres (MCs), AgroMeteorological Field Units (AMFUs) and Krishi

Vigyan Kendra (KVK). Considering above, a large number of such seminars are organized

in different agro-climates of the country to sensitize farmers about the weather and climate

information and it’s applications in operational farm management. These are jointly

organized by India Meteorological Department (Ministry of Earth Sciences), Indian Council

of Agriculture Research and State Agricultural Universities, Local NGOs and other stake

holders.

Typically the Roving Seminars are of one-day duration and bring together farmers from a

group of villages to a centralized location in any given region. The programme for the

Seminars consists of two parts. The part-I deals with Weather and Climate of the Farming

Region, Climate Change and Farming Risks, and part-II deal with Farmer Perception of

Weather and Climate Information Provision and Feedback. The Roving Seminars are

organized jointly by AMFUs and KVKs under aegis of IMD, ICAR, and SAUs. Primary

emphasis here is placed on free and frank exchange of ideas and information. The Seminar

has been designed in such a way as to engage all the participants in discussions and obtain

India 57

full information from the farmers on their needs for weather and climate information and the

ways and means to improve future communication of weather and climate information to

them to facilitate effective operational decision making.

In order to improve the linkage with the AAS system and develop a local (Village) level rain

measuring network, 5 rain gauge made of plastic are distributed to the selected group of

progressive farmers during the meeting who are trained to record and report the rainfall

observation to the concerned AMFUs who in turn communicate the data to IMD. So far such

seminars have been organized at So far such seminars have been organized at 76 AMFUs

namely Aduthurai, Allahabad, Ambikapur, Anand, Anakapalli, Anantpur, Arnej, Bikaner,

Bangalore, Bhatinda, Banswara, Basar, Bharatpur, Bhawanipatna, Bhubaneshwar,

Brahmavar, Chennai, Coimbatore, Chintapalli, Darisai, Dapoli, Diphu, Dumka, Faizabad,

Hiriyur, Hyderabad, Hisar, Igatpuri, Jabalpur, Jagdalpur, Jagtiyal, Jammu, Jaipur, Jhabua,

Jharnapani, Jodhpur, Jorhat, Kakdweep, Kalyani, Kanniwadi, Kharagpur, Kolhapur,

Kovilpatti, Kolasib, Lam, Leh, Lembucherra, Ludhiana, Majihan, Maktampur, Manipur,

Mulde, Nammakal, New Delhi, Naganhalli, Palampur, Parbhani, Pechiparai, Portblair, Pune,

Pusa, Rajouri, Roorkee, Ranital, Ranchi, Ranichauri, Solan, Shillongani, Sonitpur, Srinagar,

Sehore, Seobagh, Thrissur, Udaipur, Tirupathi and Varanasi.

5.2.9. Training in Agrometeorology

As per the demand of the AMFU personnel, Agrimet Division, IMD, Pune organized training for

AMFU Scientists entitled “Agrometeorology towards better advisories for serving end users

requirement” during the year. 22 AMFU Scientists participated in the course. There is

proposal to conduct one more batch of Training for Scientists under AMFU during January

2011. A number of preparatory workshops to Technical Officers on use of crop simulation

model to develop application tools for decision making in agro-advisory were organized at

different SAUs. The objective of this programme is to incorporate dynamic crop model in

farm decision-making for developing information on real-time weather dependent agro-

meteorological advisories issued from AMFUs disseminated to farmers and also evaluation

of Decision Support System for Agro technology Transfer (DSSAT) consisting of crop

models, data base management system and strategy evaluation programme for major crops in

agro-climatic zones. 4-days training to Technical Officers from 11 AMFUs (BAU, Ranchi,

APAU, Hyderabad, KAU, Thrissur, AAU, Jorhat, OUAT, Bhubaneswar, NDUAT, Faizabad,

BCKV, Kalyani, Bijapur, Coimbatore, Anand, Dapoli).

Two days training cum discussion programme to AMFU Officers of was organised

Chandigarh, Pune, Kolkata & Ahmedabad with representatives of two companies Reuter

Market Light (RML) and Handygo on dissemination of advisories through SMS and IVR

system. Nodal Officers of AMFU along with Technical Officers and officers/staff members

of State Meteorological Centres (SMCs)have attended training cum learning programme.

Training course on ‘Agrometeorology towards better advisories for serving end users

requirement’ for AMFU scientists was conducted from 15.02.11 to 07.03.11 at CTI, Pashan

by the Agrimet Division. 24 trainees from different Agrometeorological Field units

(AMFUs) participated in the course and Agromet Core course for university professors,

readers, scientists from agricultural/agrometeorological research organizations / ICAR


Institutions / universities was conducted from 17th August to 6th September 2011. Also 3

weeks Agromet observers’ course with 7 candidates was conducted w.e.f. 13.6.2011.

5.2.10. Extension and out reach and collection of feedback from farming

community

Regular feedback from farmers, State Agricultural Departments and Agricultural

Universities / ICAR and other related Institutes is being collected and processed for further

improvement of services. Feedback information are also been collected from Regional and

Narrowcasting stations of DD, AIR, and FM channels, Krishi Vigyan Kendras, ATMA,

CSCs, NGOs, VRCs and VKCs. Officers of the AAS units participated in Kisan Melas to

understand the problems of large groups of farmers. For improvement of the agro-advisory

bulletins, regular discussion were held among IMD and Agricultural officers at the State

AAS unit level and also with scientists in Agricultural Universities / ICAR and other related

Institutes.

Officers/Staff members of Agrimet Division, IMD,Pune participated in Kisan Mela

organized at different AMFUs to interact with the farming community and to collect their

feedback about the AAS services. It served as platform to showcase the activities of Agrimet

Division, AMFUs and Dissemination Centres at District levels an opportunity to create

awareness to farmers, directly interact with farmers from different States and obtained their

suggestions to improve the agromet advisory services.

Following linkages were established at district level to disseminate the agro advisories as

well as receive the feedback information on crop, soil, pests and diseases etc

� 130 AMFU (one in ~ 5 Districts)

� 567 KVKs in 605 Districts

• Impart skill through oriented programs to rural masses

• Organize vocational trainings, demonstrate latest technologies and its refinement

in farmers’ field conditions

• Organize demonstrations to generate awareness & feedback

� ATMA

� District Agriculture/Horticulture Offices

� CSC (Village Level)

� Local Media

5.2.11. Agromet Brochure

Agricultural Meteorology Division, India Meteorological Department (IMD) in collaboration

with State Agricultural Universities, Indian Council of Agricultural Research, India Institute

of Technology published Agromet Brochure highlighting the activities of the Agrimet

Division particularly the different areas of Integrated Agromet Advisory Services launched

by IMD/Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) for the benefit of the Indian farmers. For general

awareness and easier access to the services of IMD, the brochures in different languages

India 59

namely Assamese, Bengali, English, Gujarati, Hindi, Kannada, Malyalam, Manipuri,

Marathi, Nepali, Oriya, Punjabi, Tamil, Telegu is being circulated to the concerned

organizations/institutes like Ministry of Agriculture (Central & State), Indian Council of

Agricultural Research (ICAR), State Agricultural Universities, Regional Research Institutes,

Krishi Vigyan Kendras, Department of Space, NGOs and all other organization directly and

indirectly related to the agricultural services in the country.

5.2.12. Impact of agrometeorological advisory services on climate risk

management

Impact assessment of weather forecast based agro-advisory service was carried out by

National Centre for Medium range Weather forecasting (NCMRWF) at 15 representative

AAS units representing different agro-climatic zones. The report assesses the impact of

weather based agro-advisories on cereals, millets, pulses, oilseeds, fruits, vegetables and

cash crops selected for the study. The study period was spread over three years comprising

of 3 Kharif and 3 Rabi seasons. National Centre for Agriculture Economics and Policy

Research (NCAP), who was engaged as consultant for the project, helped to formulate the

study plan, including devising sampling method, preparation of questionnaire, monitoring its

implementation and data analysis.

In general it is difficult to assess the economic benefit of any advisory service given and also

there does not exists any general simulation model for the evaluation of the economic

benefits of meteorological assistance to agriculture, however, evident effective benefit,

probable effective benefit, and theoretically maximum possible benefit can always be

defined. Weather information content which is part of the advisory bulletin contain

information on what is going to happen (precipitation, temperature, cloud, wind) and when is

it going to happen at the given area of interest to the farmer. Weather information is

translated into farm level action oriented advice by the agricultural scientists such as time

and method of sowing, time and amount of irrigation, time and method of fertilizer/pesticide

application etc. The information is disseminated through mass media dissemination agencies

including internet, Radio / TV and Phone/Fax. When user-focused weather based advisories

are made available and used by farmers in the agriculture sector, losses resulting from

adverse weather and climatic conditions are minimized, thereby improving the yield and

quality of agricultural products. Also, the favorable weather is harnessed to its potential. The

requirements that must be met if farmers are to manage risks weather and climate include,

access to early warning and forecast conditions, awareness that weather and climate

variability will impact on farm operations, and ability to apply the agro-meteorological

information in decision making. Farmers may have more than one option for managing the

risks they face, and most use a combination of strategies and tools. Some strategies deal with

only one kind of risk, while others address multiple risks. This complicated the task of

assessing the economic value of agro-meteorological information. Agriculture impacts

include changes experienced by farmers that have meaning or value positive (a benefit

effect) or negative (an undesired effect) helping them to decide selection of crop/variety,

sowing/harvesting time, irrigation management, fertilizer management, pest/disease

management and other intercultural operations. This formed the backbone of the economic

impact study carried out by NCMRWF in collaboration with the AAS units.


The study was conducted with following prime objectives;

� Adoption of the forecast by the user community and its realization. It further helps to

understand the linkages between information, users and impacts

� To assess the effectiveness and potential benefits of Agro-Advisory services by

taking into account the AAS contact and non-contact farmers.

� To work out weather based farming strategies based on the economic impact of

Agromet Advisory Services.

� To account and assess the needs of the farming community for increasing the farm

produce.

� To assess the economic impact of the AAS services in various crops under different

ago climatic conditions.

The concept of the study is based on the assessment of ability of forecast based advisory to

influence farmers’ decisions on various farm management operations, find out Economic

and other benefits due to use of advisories in farm management decisions, and assess

impacts of advisories on overall yield of the crop.

Impact Assessment Analysis Framework:

A number of approaches and methods have been used in the literature to assess the value and

impact of weather forecast. Important among these are assessment of the value of weather

forecast, economic benefits to farmers or individual farms, and economic and social benefits

for a sector or country as a whole. The cost-loss analysis, expected utility approach,

stochastic programming approach, simulation model, economic surplus, and computable

general equilibrium model are most frequently used methods. The selection of analytical

method is determined by objective of the study, availability of required data and

computational skills. Since main objective of the study is to assess the adequacy, use and

impact of the medium range weather forecasts, an analytical method focusing more on farm

level impact was considered to be most appropriate. In the present study, the selection of

method is also influenced by the fact that policy makers can easily understand the results and

the method can be applied with moderate analytical skill. Therefore, NCAP proposed use of

simple farm-level indicators for the impact assessment. The impact assessment framework

proposed included estimation of accuracy of the forecast, adequacy and reliability of the

forecast from farmers’ perspective, use of the forecast, and farm-level impacts.

Table 5a. describes the framework to be followed for assessing the usefulness of weather

forecast through the survey and Table 5b gives the economic impact indicators to be

considered

Table 5 a. Use of Weather Forecast

Impact area Indicator

Perception of stakeholders Reliability, dissemination, adequacy,

value addition

Awareness about AAS Farmers knowing AAS (%)

Usefulness-farmers’ perception Farmers considering it useful (%)

Use of information Farmers using weather forecasts (%)

India 61

Table 5b: Economic Impact Indicators

Parameters Indicators

Yield Difference in yield of AAS and non-AAS farmers

Cost • Difference between total paid out cost (per acre) of

AAS and non-AAS contact farmers

• Changes in cost per unit of output

Profitability • Difference in return over paid out cost (Rs/acre) of

AAS and non-AAS contact farmers

Utility Increase in utilization by farmer for maneuvering cultural

operations

Sample selection

Considering the importance of the sampling in the study, care was taken to identify the

sample which is true representative of the class. Thus the farmers were selected based on

their size of holding (small, medium, large), educational background, size of the family,

types of crops grown. Section 4 gives the demographic details of the samples chosen by each

unit. As it was difficult to collate information from a very large or not-interested farmers the

sampling was done based on the following criterion.

� 15 AAS units out of a total 127 were chosen based on the existence of an effective

weather based agro-advisory service of NCMRWF at the unit for quite some time.

� From each unit, a representative district where AAS Unit was operating was selected

for conducting the farm survey. The selection of the district was based on its

similarity with the agro climatic zone in terms of cropping pattern, irrigated area,

rainfall and soil type.

� A list of villages, from the selected district, having AAS contact farmers was

prepared and two villages were chosen randomly from among these.

� In each selected villages, a list of all the AAS contact farmers was prepared by

category of their size of holding (small, medium, large), educational background,

family size, type of crops grown etc. A total of 20 farmers were then selected using

random sampling technique.

� Thus a sample size of 40 AAS contact farmers was selected from the 2 villages.

Similarly, two villages having no AAS contact farmer (from the same district) were chosen.

From the two selected villages, a list of all the farmers (non- AAS contact farmers) was

prepared based on the criteria described above. 20 farmers were then selected by random

sampling from each village. Thus, four villages comprising of 2 villages of AAS contact

farmers and 2 villages of non-AAS contact farmers were selected at each of the 15 units

chosen for the study. 20 AAS and 20 non-AAS contact farmers were selected from each

village, thus making a sample of 80 farmers (40 AAS and 40 non-AAS).

In order to keep the data of manageable size, information on important crops (at least one

each for Kharif and Rabi, but not more than four crops was selected for taking detailed

information on use and impact of weather forecasts. To ensure reliability of the results, data


has been collected for 3 Rabi and 3 Kharif seasons viz., Kharif 2004, 2005 and 2006 and for

Rabi 2003-04, Rabi 2004-05 and Rabi 2005-06. As most of the units could not collect the

data for Rabi 2003-04, hence the project was extended by 6 months to accommodate the

Rabi season of 2006-07.

Survey & the questionnaire

The sampling method was designed to work directly with the users of forecast and advisory

information, to be able to more meaningfully assess credible cost/loss estimates. The

important issue was to develop effective and meaningful base for assessing impacts of cost-

cutting yield and enhancing decisions. Cost-cutting measures can take a variety of forms,

some of which include saving in irrigation, reducing the loss of fertilizer, reducing the

pesticide applications. To obtain quantitative information, working relationships between

AMFUs and user farmers were set up through periodic visits. Through such visits input from

the farmers were obtained about use and application of the advisory bulletins through pre-

devised questionnaire. Thus the sample survey is not independently conducted by the

agency which provided the questionnaire and therefore a certain amount of bias in

inevitable. This has been highlighted in Section 9 as one of the limitations that has been

encountered during the study.

The AAS units gave special attention to date of sowing, planting, harvesting, spraying,

irrigation and tillage operation. Due attention was paid to collecting information on the

adoption of advisory by the farmers during such operations and the benefit/loss accrued by

the farmers by following/not-following advisories related to such crucial operations.

Based on the above methodology and impact assessment framework, the survey is done

using three aspects

i. Socio- Economic Status: The socio -economic status of the farmers was

surveyed using the queries related to; Family structure, Literacy among farmers,

Size of land holding, Cropping pattern, Traditional Methods used, Mode of

irrigation, Awareness of AAS, Mode of receipt of AAS, Weather parameters

required, Satisfaction from service (reliability, timely availability, expected

benefits, frequency), and Willingness to pay.

ii. Quantity analysis of inputs used

� Quantity of Seed, Fertilizer, Pesticide

� Number of Labour (Human, machine)

� Number of Irrigations

iii. Price analysis of inputs used

� Price of Seed, Fertilizer, Pesticide

� Cost of labour (Human, machine)

� Cost of Irrigation

� Cost of product/byproduct

� Any other associated cost

India 63

Crops selected by the units

The major crops chosen for the study are as under

• Food grains: Wheat, Rice, Millets, Maize, Red Gram and Chickpea

• Oilseeds: Mustard;

• Cash crops: Cumin, Jute, Cotton and Tobacco

• Fruit crops: Apricot, Peach and Banana

• Vegetables: Tomato and Spinach.

The crops wise results of the study which spread over three years (comprising of 3 Kharif

and 3 Rabi seasons) for cereals, millets, pulses, oilseeds, fruits, vegetables and cash crops are

presented in table 6.

Table 6: Crop specific and station specific impact of AAS on cost of cultivation, gross & net

returns, and yield.

Crop Station Impact of AAS

on cost of

cultivation

(Rs/acre)

Impact of AAS

on gross returns

(Rs/acre)

Impact of

AAS on net

returns

(Rs/acre)

Impact of AAS

on yield

(Q/acre)

C

E

R

E

A

L

S

Paddy

Raipur; Thrissur; Kalyani; Ludhiana;

Bhubaneshwar;

Hyderabad; Pantnagar

Decrease by

5-12%

Increase by

8-20%

Increase by

16-20%

Increase by

8-20%

Wheat Raipur; Ludhiana; Jaipur; Pune;

Pantnagar

Decrease by

1-2%

Increase by

8-13%

Increase by

12-28%

Increase by

7-30%

Millets Pearlmillet Jodhpur, Jaipur,

Pune

Increase by

1-5%

Increase by

4-14%

Increase by

10-28%

Increase by

4-25%

V

E

G

E

T

A

B

L

E

S

Tomato BhubaneshwarBang

alore Coimbatore

Hyderabad Solan

Decrease by

2-5%

Increase by

7-20%

Increase by

12-30%

Increase by

13-23%

Palak Hyderabad Decrease by

9.4%

Increase by

24.6%

Increase by

25.1

Increase by

24.4%

Capsicum Solan Increase by

2.2%

Increase by

57.3%

Increase by

61.3%

Increase by

20.1%

Onion Pune Increase by

0.9%

Increase by

20.4%

Increase by

30.1%

Increase by

30.2%

Potato Anand Decrease by

3.1%

Increase by

10.3%

Increase by

13.5%

Increase by

5.4%

C

a

s

h

C

r

o

p

S

Cotton Hisar, Coimbatore,

Hyderabad

Decrease by

4-10%

Increase by

2-3%

Increase by

6-20%

Increase by

3-20%

Jute Kalyani Decrease by

24.9%

Increase by 11% Increase by

21%

Increase by

14.1%

Tobacco Anand Increase by

2.8 %

Increase by

11.7%

Increase by

21.5 %

Increase by

0.9%


Oil

Seeds

Mustard Hisar; Kalyani;

Jodhpur

Decrease by

2-10%

Increase by

3-11%

Increase by

7-20%

Increase by

2-10%

P

U

L

S

E

S

Gram Raipur, Jaipur Decrease by

3-5%

Increase by

8-14%

Increase by

11-30%

Increase by

7-16%

Red Gram/

Tur

Bangalore Decrease by

14.1%

Increase by

14.8%

Increase by

32.7%

Increase by

14.8%

F

R

U

I

T

S

Banana Thrissur,

Coimbatore

Increase by

4-10%

Increase by

4-13%

Increase by

25-30%

Increase by

10-11%

Peach Solan Increase by

10.6%

Increase by

57.2%

Increase by

59.9%

Increase by

12.3%

Apricot Solan Increase by

2.2%

Increase by

76.3%

Increase by

82.6%

Increase by

23.7%

The above table attempts to isolate the economic impact of weather based advisories on

different crops cultivated by weather-sensitive users. Indirectly it assesses what the impacts

might have been had the forecasts-cum-advisories not been available. Though the sampling

method was devised to determine the direct and indirect impacts of weather-related costs and

losses for the representative sample of users, there is ample scope for not catching holistic

impacts. Considering the complexity of the situation one can understand the difficulty in

estimating and quantifying the user response. Nevertheless, survey results provide credible

information about the value of forecast-cum-advisory products. It has been found that in

most of the cases, use of AAS advisories resulted in decline in the cost of cultivation up to

25% for the study crops. However, in some cases, cost of cultivation did increase up to 10%

as a result of follow up action on AAS advisories, but this was more than offset by the

consequent increase in net returns up to 83%, with a modal value of 20%. The major crops

which benefited most from the use of AAS service are paddy, wheat, pearl millet and fruits

and vegetables. This proves the usefulness of AAS advisories. This also endorses the need

for dissemination of AAS information to farmers on a wider scale and convincing them

about its positive impacts on a sustainable basis. Undertaking timely field operations due to

adoption of agro-advisories being disseminated twice a week helped in improvement in the

yields of various crops. Equally important but the most challenging task would be to enhance

the accuracy of weather forecast and to make the AAS more useful and demand-driven for

the farm households (Rathore and Maini, 2008).

5.2.13. Current status of R&D in Agrometeorology

At present Research & Development in Agrometeorology is mainly carried out at ICAR

institutions, IMD and State Agriculture Universities. As a matter of fact the R&D effort at

SAUs is coordinated by ICAR through All India Coordinated Research Project on

Agrometeorology (AICRPAM). India Meteorological Department has been carrying out

R&D since setting up of Agrimet Division at Pune in 1932 focusing primarily of following

areas;

i. Forewarning of Pest and diseases incidence

The possibility of occurrence of insects and diseases particularly under favourable weather

conditions when outbreak of pest and diseases occur is an important area of study. In order

India 65

to develop forewarning models of pests and diseases, the following measures are being

taken:

• Creation of data base through collection of historical data on outbreak of insects

and diseases and delineation of the regions prone to different insects and diseases.

• Utilization of pest/ diseases- weather relationship already available at different

State Agricultural Universities (SAUs) / ICAR Institutes.

• Identification of threshold values of weather parameters for each individual phase

of growth cycle of the pest / disease.

• Development of prediction model and strategies for integrated pest management

based on weather parameters through about 20 collaborating Agriculture

Institution/Universities. Pest data for important pest and weather data from the

observatories are being collected using pheromone traps. These data are also

being utilized for developing forewarning models.

ii. Dry farming research

Dry farming tract comprise 87 districts is spread over Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat,

Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

The seasonal rainfall variability over most parts of dry farming tract is quite high. The

uneven distribution and high variability of rainfall leads to moisture stress on field crops

causing reduction in their yields. This need to be overcome by adopting the risk management

strategy through assured rainfall and water balance studies. Probability of wet and dry spells

information in the region also helps to plan not only sowing time but also adopt contingency

planning under weather vagaries. By analyzing long period rainfall data (more than 70

years) and computing moisture availability index for the stations in the semi-arid region

suitable cropping patterns are being suggested. Optimizing crop management strategies to

increase production in dry farming areas is being carried out through crop modeling.

iii. Crop weather relationship

Theoretical models of crop weather relationship enable to understand, quantitatively, the role

played by weather elements on crop growth and yield. Such models have been applied to

wheat, paddy, cotton and groundnut crops and response of these crops in various

phenological stages in relation to meteorological factors have been studied. Agroclimatic

classification of India has been attempted by applying principal component method to agro-

climatic factors. Variability of soil moisture and soil temperature and the contribution of dew

has been studied in relation to crop growth. Fluctuations in weather with regard to crop-

factors like leaf area index, stomatal resistance, crop co-efficient, and dry matter production

are also been studied. Field experiments are being conducted using state-of-art instruments

to study the effect of CO2 and PAR(Light) on the rate of photosynthesis in major field crops.

iv. Crop Weather Calendar

Crop weather calendars for 12 states have been published. Also normals of

Agrometeorological observatories have been published. Calendars are being prepared for

other states also. Agroclimatic atlas of India is also being updated.


v. Drought studies:

By analyzing rainfall data since 1875, ADGM(R) office has worked out the probability of

occurrence of drought in various parts of India has been worked out. Different parameters

like water availability, soil moisture stress, aridity index have been studied. Droughts are

monitored by deriving aridity anomalies on a fortnightly basis in the kharif season and

weekly basis in the north-east monsoon season over the southern peninsula.

Also, agrometeorological data have been analyzed (Spatially & Temporally) to develop

various agro-meteorological applications. As climatological information is essential for

preparation of agro-advisories, the same has been prepared by averaging daily atmospheric

data across a standard 30-year period. With the advent of weather generators to generate

daily temperature, precipitation, radiation, relative humidity, and wind data for crop models,

the amount of input parameters based on climate data can be overwhelming. Soils data on

water-holding capacities (wilting point, field capacity), soil texture, nutrient contents, soil

ph, organic carbon, and soil layer depth have also been collated as they are essential for crop

simulation models. Similarly, agronomic data including data on crop-management

information (planting dates; plant spacing and depth; phenological observations); irrigation

management; cultivar types; historical yield series; and disease, pests, and weed information

have been collected for concerned regions by most AMFUs. Some of the data required for

crop simulation based decision support system have also been acquired through expert

opinion, literature values, and agricultural statistics.

5.2.14. Future Research & Development strategies

Considering growing focus on providing district level advisories to the farmers, the R & D

efforts in agrometeorology is required to take up studies on adoption of new approaches to

analysis and also utilization of modern tools like remote sensing, simulation modeling, GIS

technology and communication system which are all expected to result in framing of more

realistic weather based advisories and render value added services for day-to-day agricultural

operations, and move towards maximization of agricultural produce in the next two decades.

The R&D effort also needs to look at the fact that these services for the farmers are planned

to be up-graded from existing district level to block level in its next leg. Accordingly the

future plan on R&D in agrometerology is mainly focusing on following aspects;

• Strengthening of agromet databases for improving regional / micro level planning.

Develop temporally and spatially diverse climate database that supports a wide

variety of user oriented analysis tools.

• Preparation of State-wise Agroclimatic Atlas and weather-based DSS for growing

crops in different seasons.

• Studies on climate extremes and their probabilities, delineation of hotspots and

regions vulnerable to climate change and their impact on agricultural crops.

• Value addition to agromet information for improving the efficiency of agromet

advisories and its dissemination in local languages using latest ICTs.

• Development of drought monitoring indicators by combining the climate and remote

sensing information and preparation of drought vulnerability maps.

• Development of simple crop-weather relationships for use in AAS

India 67

• Studies on dynamics of pests and diseases in a cropping system mode as influenced

by weather for development of thumb rules for forewarning models and Decision

Support Systems, which are farmer-friendly and economically viable.

• Development of appropriate scientific criteria for National Agricultural Insurance

Schemes both for crops and weather.

• Modelling impacts of climate change / variability on agricultural systems.

• New thrust areas on agrometeorological aspects in horticulture, livestock and

agriculture in hill and island regions.

• Generate agrometeorological Products using weather forecast.

• Application of Remote Sensing in AAS through Linking RS products with crop

growth simulation model and decision support tools.

• Develop interactive agrometeorological information system that delivers a family of

user-selectable products to meet customer needs via Internet and mobile phones.

• A climate applications research program that address climate-relevant natural

resource management.

• Conduct studies to assess economic impact of AAS at local levels.

• Develop sound weather based indices for all crops to cater to needs of Crop Weather

Insurance.

• Develop tools for application of weather forecast in extended and seasonal scales for

translating such forecasts into advisories

Achieving these goals requires leadership and coordination among agricultural weather and

climate service providers at the national, regional, and state levels and with the user

community at all levels. From the IMD, MoES, adequate funding is being provided for the

maintenance of a modernized observational network that includes data needed for

agricultural analysis.

5.2.15. Future Projection under AAS

It is proposed to downscale the Agromet Advisory Service at relatively smaller areas of the

country. The main objectives of the proposed project would be:

� To improvise the existing District level Agromet Advisory Services (AAS in order

to deliver the AAS to farmers at block level with village level advisory.

� To provide last mile connectivity to farmers for accessing the personalized agromet

advisory services.

� To extend the agromet advisory service to the new areas like livestock, fisheries etc.

� To establish appropriate dissemination system to reach each and every farmer in the

country

� To establish an appropriate support system for weather based crop insurance in the

country.

� To address the climate and climatic variability through high resolution agromet

advisory service system.

The beneficiaries of the proposed service include:

� The small, marginal and large farmers engaged in cultivation cereal crops, cash

crops horticultural and plantation crops.


� Livestock and fisheries Farmers.

� Different high valued crop growers like mango, apple, grapes etc. in the country

� State and central level planners formulating the strategies for crop cultivation.

There are number of stake holders like State Agricultural Universities, Department of

Agriculture (both State and Central Governments), Krishi Vigyan Kendras, ATMA, NGOs,

Crop Growers’ Associations and others are involved in this project. All the above mentioned

stake holders are being consulted periodically in framing the projects. All the beneficiaries

will be directly incorporated in the project by organising different farmer’s awareness

programmes etc. Followings are the major areas of works will be taken up in the proposed

project.

� Preparation of high resolution forecast at block level

� Dissemination of Block level Agromet Advisories

� Establishment of optimum observational network

� Convergence of IAAS with KVK & ATMA, CSC, NGOs etc.

� Linkage with DOS on application of Remote Sensing in AAS

� Establishment of District Agro-Met Units (DAMU)

� Permanency of AMFUs & proposed DAMU

� Set up smart Telecom system

� Stronger Linkages with AICRP(AM)

� Economic impact assessment

� Crop weather insurance

5.2.16. All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology

(AICRPAM)

With an aim to bring stability in food grain production on the face of varying weather

conditions, Government of India recognized the research needs in agrometeorology and

started strengthening it at its various Research Institutes functioning under Indian Council of

Agriculture Research (ICAR). The National Commission on Agriculture (NCA) (1976)

strongly recommended for establishment of Departments of Agricultural Meteorology at

each State Agricultural University for strengthening teaching and research in Agricultural

Meteorology. The inception of All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology

during 1983 at Crop research Institute for Dry-land Agriculture (CRIDA), Hyderabad was

the culmination of the prompt response of ICAR to the recommendations of NCA for

strengthening agrometeorological research.

The All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology (AICRPAM) was

launched in the year 1983, by setting a Coordinating Centre at Central Research Institute for

Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), Hyderabad and 10 Cooperating Centres at different State

Agricultural Universities across the country. Initially the project came into operation at six

centres, viz., Anand, Anantapur, Bangalore, Hisar and Ludhiana, which were already

engaged in teaching and research in the Discipline of Agricultural Meteorology. The

network was further widened in 1985 by inclusion of four more centres, viz., Solapur,

Jabalpur, Mohanpur and Ranchi. During VII Plan period, i.e., two more centres, one at

Kovilpatti in Tamil Nadu and another at Ranichauri in hilly region of Uttarakhand were

India 69

added to the network. In the year 1990, Varanasi centre was closed and in its place, Faizabad

(Uttar Pradesh) was included as Cooperating Centre of the Project. In 1988 through a

USAID funding on Indo-US Sub-project entitled “Strengthening Agrometeorological

Research to enhance Food Production” the project was augmented to equip the Cooperating

Centres with modern agrometeorological instruments and also provided specialized training

to the scientists of the project in USA for six months on identified thrust areas of

agrometeorological research. Considering a good progress the ICAR sanctioned 13

additional centres during VIII Plan and these centres came into operation in 1995-96. In the

year 1998, the project established an Agromet Databank with the financial support from

DST to cater to the needs of agromet data requirement of ICAR Institutes and its scientists.

It is being maintained by ICAR and continued to serve its purpose. During 2001 to 2005,

sanction of five external funded research projects of high budget allocation under National

Agricultural Technology Program (NATP) further strengthened AICRPAM, in terms of

infrastructure and human resource development especially at the Coordinating Unit. For

strengthening of research capabilities of Agrometeorologists, about 22 training programs

were conducted on agrometeorological analysis.

Presently the project is operating with its Coordinating Unit at Hyderabad and Cooperating

Centres in 25 State Agricultures (SAUs) spread across all the agroclimatic regions of country

(Figure 22). This is the first and only Network Project on Agrometeorological Research in

India. The Project maintains its uniqueness among other network projects by not confining

to a single commodity or crop and a particular ecosystem or climatic condition. The

research domain of the project cuts across all the four agro-ecosystems, viz., Rainfed,

Irrigated, Hill & Mountain and Coastal Island. Unlike other Network Project on

Agrometeorology elsewhere in the world, which are mostly focused on data collection and

operational research, it is engaged in both basic and operational research in the discipline of

agrometeorology. Each centre conducts agrometeorological research on one or two main

crops of its region besides analyzing long-term weather data for Agroclimatic

Characterization and Climate Change Studies. All the centres are serving Agro Advisory

Services using the research results obtained over the years.

Fig. 22: Network of AICRPAM Centres


The Broad R&D domain of AICRPAM is as under:

� To study the agricultural climate in relation to crop planning and assessment of crop

production potentials in different agroclimatic regions,

� To establish crop-weather relationships for all the major rainfed and irrigated crops

in different agroclimatic regions,

� To evaluate the different techniques of modification of crop micro-climate for

improving the water use efficiency and productivity of the crops,

� To study the influence of weather on the incidence and spread of pests and diseases

of field crops,

� To provide weather-based agro advisories using medium range weather forecast and

ICT,

� To collect and update weather data in the Agromet Databank at CRIDA.

Thematic Areas to achieve the objectives include Agroclimatic characterization, Crop-

Weather Relationships, Crop-Weather Modeling, Effect of Weather on Pests and Diseases,

and support to Agro Advisory Services.

Significant Achievements of AICRPAM are as follows:

Over the past two and half decades, network centres of AICRPAM have generated data on

growth, development and yield of crops that were assigned to each centre, besides collecting

historical weather data with respect to their region. Historical crop yield data and the

corresponding weather data of different districts of their respective agroclimatic regions /

state were also collected by each centre. Data on disease / pest incidence of the main crop(s)

of each centre were analyzed in relation to weather conditions. Validation of crop

simulation models were undertaken at some centres. Theme-wise achievements emerged

from the research activities over years are summarized as under:

5.2.16.1 Agroclimatic Characterization

� Climatic resources of many agroclimatic regions were worked out for better

agricultural planning.

� Agroclimatic Atlases were brought out by centres Raipur, Faizabad and Anand.

� The probabilities of weekly and monthly rainfall occurrence were worked out by many

centres and Nakshatra-wise probabilities were also worked out by few centres for easy

understanding of farmers.

� Crop growing environments for mustard, pearlmillet, chickpea, cashew, cardamom

and groundnut were delineated.

� The frequency of occurrence of droughts and their impact on agricultural production

was studied by few centres.

� Climatic variability and trends in different weather parameters were assessed at all the

research centres.

� Observation on VUB radiation was initiated at few centres.

� Daily rainfall data for 9 districts in West Bengal were analyzed to derive information

on assured rainfall, initial and conditional probability of rainfall, wet and dry spells,

length of growing season through forward and backward accumulation, soil water

balance, and moisture adequacy index.

India 71

5.2.16.2 Crop-Weather Relationships

• At Raipur, wheat varieties tolerant to thermal stress were identified with the help of

Thermal Sensitivity Index (TSI).

• Based on line source irrigation experiments in mustard at Anand, it was recommended

to apply four irrigations each of 30 mm through sprinkler for obtaining optimum yield

in middle Gujarat agroclimatic zone. In this zone, higher day length and temperature

during vegetative phase and cooler temperatures (<19˚C) during reproductive period

were found to be optimum weather conditions for higher yield.

• At Bhubaneswar, variety with lesser leaf angle (Ghanteswari) intercepted higher

radiation in rice produced higher grain and straw yields in addition to higher radiation

use efficiency. However, increased the number of grains per panicle due to

supplemental light over natural is more in CR 1009.

• Response farming strategies for overcoming adverse effects of early and late season

droughts in pearlmillet at Solapur, proved that in situ moisture conservation practices

of “ridges and furrows before sowing” to be better over other drought management

practices.

• At Solapur, crop water use can be effectively monitored and yield of pearlmillet could

be accurately estimated with the help of canopy temperature differential.

• At Mohanpur rainfall during 100 percent anthesis to maturity showed significant

positive relationship with rice yield and is crucial for achieving higher yield.

• At Anantapur, a dry spell of more than 15 days duration during pod filling stage was

identified as climatic risk in rainfed groundnut as it reduced yield by 60-75 percent.

• Significant positive relationship between minimum temperature and pod yield in

groundnut were observed at Anand, Anantapur, Ludhiana and Bangalore. At Anand,

minimum temperature around 23-25˚C during pod development stage favoured in

achieving higher pod yield. At Anantapur and Ludhiana, drop in nigh temperature

below 20˚C adversely affected the growth and yield of groundnut. • Based on long-term (1976-1996) yield data of fingermillet (Indaf-8) under different sowing

windows and the corresponding rainfall during the crop growing period at Bangalore, sowing

window period 9 July to 5 August was identified to be the best for obtaining high yield.

• The analysis of rice yield in relation to weather parameters at Dapoli reveals that

sunshine hour is the major climatic constraints for not only achieving higher grain and

straw yields but also for achieving higher harvest index. Therefore, sowing of crop 20

days after the onset of monsoon seems to be optimum period for getting higher grain

and straw yields as increased number of sunshine hours during maturity helped in

increasing the productivity.

• Crop water requirement in different growth stages as well as total growing period were

worked out for all important crops, viz., rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, pearlmillet,

soybean, groundnut, mustard, cotton and gram.

• At Anand, 1˚C increase in minimum temperature in the month of December and

January reduced the wheat yield by 217 and 404 kg/ha, respectively.

• Both maximum (MXT) and minimum (MNT) temperature was found to had negative

effect on wheat yield at Kanpur.


• At Samastipur, wheat yield and weather relations facilitated to identify wheat varieties

PBW-343 and HP-1744 for early sowing (27 Nov) and K-9107) and NW-1014 for late

sowing.

• Thermal sensitivity of mustard varieties were evaluated at Raipur and identified Pusa

Gold and T-9 are susceptible and Pusa Bold and Pusa Agrani to be moderately

susceptible to thermal stress.

• At Mohanpur, seed yield of mustard was found to be highly significant positive

relation (R2 = 0.98) with radiation during the growing period.

• Yield of sunflower at Solapur was found to be significant positive relationship with

cumulative moisture use and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) during the total

growing period. Unit increase in moisture use produced 2.3 kg/ha more yields.

• At Kovilpatti, rainfall during the growing period was found to be significant positive

relationship with yield of rabi sorghum.

• The relationship between cardamom productivity in Kerala and water deficit during

summer was worked out by Thrissur.

• Potato yield at Mohanpur was found to be inversely related with air temperature

during planting to ripening stage and soil temperature (at 15 cm) during tuberization to

end of bulking stage.

• At Dapoli, cucumber fruit yield was found to be significant parabolic relationship with

growing degree days during reproductive stage.

• Yield of chickpea at Jabalpur was found to be significant negative relationship with

temperature during reproductive period. Increase in temperature by 10C during

reproductive period caused yield loss of 82 kg/ha.

• At Ranichauri, minimum temperature less than 100C during grain filling and maturity

stages reduced seed yield of amaranthus.

• Based on agrometeorological studies, Bhogali and Monohar Sali varieties of rice were

identified for delayed transplanting conditions at Jorhat.

• At Ludhiana, water production functions were developed for wheat, raya, gram,

sunflower, soybean, groundnut and greengram. In case of wheat, one or two

irrigations during flowering and milking stage proved to improve yield and harvest

index of the crop.

• Yield of mustard at Faizabad and cotton yield at Kovilpatti showed significant inverse

relationship with canopy temperature, under rainfed conditions.

• At Bijapur, a multiple regression equation relating yield of pearlmillet with weather

parameters, viz., maximum temperature at 3 and 6 week (TX3 and TX6) and cloud

cover at 8 and 9 week ( CC 8 and CC9) was developed. This model can provide yield

forecast 3 to 4 week in advance of harvest.

• At Hisar, the decrease in seed yield of mustard was of the order of 4.4 q/ha for every

10C rise in minimum temperature during seed development period.

• At Akola rainfall during reproductive stage was found to have significant exponential

relationship with soybean yield.

• At Parbhani, weather during milk stage was found to be highly significant relationship

with yield of kharif sorghum. Rainfall, number of rainy days, minimum temperature

and number of sunshine hours at this stage positively influenced the yield.

• At Palampur, Crop Weather Calendar for maize and rice crops was prepared.

India 73

• At Ludhiana, based on microclimatic studies, it was recommended to decrease the row spacing

to 15 cm from the existing practice of 22.5 cm row spacing in wheat crop, in view of the

increase of 13 percent increase in yield and same was adopted by PAU in farmers’ fields.

• Analysis of data on phenology of mustard (cv. Varuna) over three locations, viz.,

Hisar, Arjia and Mohanpur, in relation to temperature showed that duration of both

vegetative and reproductive phases is inversely related to average temperature during

the respective phases. Increase in temperature by 10C reduced the vegetative period

by 3 days and reproductive period by 6 days among the stations. At the same

locations, increase in duration by one day improves yield by 32.8 kg/ha and increase in

temperature by 10C reduces yield by 174 kg/ha.

5.2.16.3 Crop Growth Modelling

• Centres have validated process-based crop simulation models, viz., DSSAT,

PEANUTGRO, BRASSICA, CERES, and RODMOD, for major crops like rice,

wheat, sorghum, groundnut, soybean and mustard.

• Sensitivity analysis of models like INFOCROP, WHEATGRO, etc. was worked out

by comparing predicted values with observed ones.

• Large database on phenology and GDD requirement of many crops, viz., rice, wheat,

maize, sorghum, pearlmillet, fingermillet, pigeonpea, chickpea, soybean, cotton,

groundnut, greengram, mustard, sunflower, safflower and amaranthus was generated.

• Dry matter partitioning of different crops under different agroclimatic conditions has

been worked out.

• Statistical models using long-term crop and weather data and their validation were

carried out by all the centres.

5.2.16.4 Weather Effects on Pests and Diseases

• Using long-term experimental data, regression models for forecasting powdery mildew

incidence in ber was developed at Bijapur.

• At this centre, a multiple regression model for advance monitoring of bacterial leaf

spot disease in grapes and DSS for pest management was developed.

• Kovilpatti centre has identified the periods of outbreak of bacterial blight disease in

cotton from the historical disease and weather data and suggested contingency plans

for spraying of chemicals.

• A multiple regression equations using temperature, relative humidity, wind direction

and evaporation was developed for prediction of Helicoverpa Armigera population in

cotton crop at Hisar.

• The hotspot areas of tea mosquito bug across the cashew cultivated regions of the

country were demarcated considering optimum night temperatures during flushing and

flowering stage by Thrissur centre.

• At Hisar, low mean temperature and high relative humidity were identified to be

causing increase in aphids population in mustard.


• At Solapur, fall in minimum temperatures to 15˚C with low morning relative humidity

(< 60%) led to sugary secretion in rabi sorghum, in the presence of aphids and

delphacids and minimum temperature less than 12˚C lead to severe sugary secretion.

• At Anand, maximum temperature of more than 32˚C favoured infestation of stem rot

and maximum temperature between 26-28˚C and relative humidity of 82-86 percent

favoured infestation of white rust in mustard.

• At Faizabad, the thumb rules were developed for incidence of alternaria leaf blight in

wheat.

• At Palampur, analysis of 21 years pest and weather data brought out that RH of about

90 percent, night temperature les than 20˚C and cloudy conditions were conducive for

development of blast disease in rice.

• Weather condition identified to be conducive for development of insect pests of rice

crop at Mohanpur were identified.

• Anantapur centre found close relation between emergence of red hairy caterpillar

(RHC) in groundnut and heavy rainfall events. RHC reach a peak 3 to 4 days after

rain event and can be predicted 8 to 9 days in advance.

• At Bangalore, regression equations relating tikka disease in groundnut and weather

conditions, i.e., relative humidity (RH), growing degree days (GDD) and sunshine

hours (SSH) was developed.

• Incidence of stem borer (SBR) is positively related with cumulative rainfall during

preceding 15 days at Bhubaneswar.

• Based on data for 12 seasons, minimum temperature, relative humidity during soft

dough stage, number of rainy days and rainfall from sowing to harvest in wheat were

identified as factors responsible for incidence and spread of Karnal bunt disease at

Hissar.

• With the help of block level daily rainfall, crop statistics and soil information, climatic

constraints for low productivity of rice in eastern India were identified. The major

constraint for rainfed rice production is low dependable rainfall during reproductive

stage which is not sufficient to meet water requirement at the crucial stage.

• Under the project “Near real time monitoring of Agroclimatic Conditions – A Case

Study for Andhra Pradesh” thematic maps of weekly rainfall and temperature

departures as well as soil moisture index maps were prepared for preparing contingent

crop plans.

• Under “INARIS: Climate Database Management” project, long-term daily weather

data were stored in Oracle Database. Spatial distribution maps of monthly weather

parameters, viz., maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall and those of

derived indices, aridity index and moisture adequacy index during monsoon was

developed.

• Under the project “New Approaches to IPM in rainfed rice-based production system”,

weather-based pest forecasting models for yellow stem borer, brown plant hopper and

green leaf hopper in rice were developed and validated.

• Under the project “Development of weather-based forewarning systems for crop pests

and diseases”, crop-pest-disease-weather relationships were developed for 14 targeted

insect pests and 12 diseases in six crops. Simple weather-based thumb rules for

forewarning of pests / diseases were developed and validated. A decision support

India 75

model for leaf spot in groundnut, a degree-day model for aphids in mustard and neural

network model for yellow stem borer in rice and American boll worm in cotton were

developed.

• Under the ongoing Network Project on “Climate Change”, annual rainfall data of 1140

stations in rainfed districts of the country were analyzed and regions vulnerable to

climate change were identified. The impacts of climate change on crop water

requirement and length of growing season of wheat in Indo-Gangetic Plains and on

yield of major crops in other regions were studied.

5.2.17. Conclusions

Nearly 700 million rural people in India directly depend on climate-sensitive sector

(agriculture, forests, and fisheries) and natural resources for their subsistence and livelihood.

Under changing climate food security of the country might come under threat. In addition,

the adaptive capacity of dry land farmers, forest and coastal communities is low. In

increased in weather extremes like torrential rain, heat wave, cold wave, flood besides year

to year variability in rainfall affects agricultural productivity significantly and lead

stagnation/ decline in production across various agro-climatic zones. In developing countries

like India, climate change could represent an additional stress on ecological and

socioeconomic systems that are already facing tremendous pressures due to rapid

urbanization, industrialization and economic development. With its huge and growing

population, a 7,500 km long densely populated and lowlying coastline, and an economy that

is closely tied to its natural resource base, India is considerably vulnerable to the impacts of

climate change. Increased temperatures will impact agricultural production. Higher

temperatures reduce the total duration of a crop cycle by inducing early flowering, thus

shortening the ‘grain fill’ period. The shorter the crop cycle, the lower the yield per unit area.

There is growing need to qualify the effects of rising temperature on yield of crops in

different agroecologies and agri-production environments. There is thus an urgent need to

address the climate change and variability issues holistically. Climate change, energy

security and food security are interlinked, and require an integrated approach. Some specific

options have already been identified, tested and documented for climate change mitigation

and adaptation for agriculture sector, such as sustainable land and forest management;

changing varieties; more efficient water use; altering the timing or location of cropping

activities; improving the effectiveness of pest, disease and weed management practices and

making better use of seasonal climate forecasts to reduce production risks. If these options

are widely adopted, they could have substantial potential to offset negative impacts from

climate change and take advantage of positive impacts. To cope with climate change more

effectively, it is necessary to identify integrated adaptation and mitigation options for a range

of agroecosystems so as to enable a favorable policy environment for the implementation of

the framework. The policy implications are wide-reaching, as changes in agriculture could

affect food security, trade policy, livelihood activities and water conservation issues,

impacting large portions of the population.

To promote sustainable farm production in the scenario of increased climate variability and

climate change, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences, has

strengthened the weather forewarning system and also developed weather information based

advisory service to assist farmers to undertake suitable farm management practices. The


service has components that mitigate likely impacts of severe weather and harness

benevolent weather. Under the service known as Agrometeorological Advisory Service

(AAS), the needs of farming community were defined through ascertaining information

requirement of diverse groups of farmers to find that the prime need of farming community

is to have location specific weather forecast in quantitative terms for medium range and

beyond. Hence, the district level medium range weather forecast was developed and made

operational in June, 2008. Thereafter, mechanism was developed to integrate weather

forecast and climatic information along with agro-meteorological information to prepare

district level agro-advisories outlining the farm management actions to harness favorable

weather and mitigate impacts of adverse weather. A system has also been developed to

communicate and disseminate the agro-meteorological advisories to strengthen the

information out reach.

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Rupa Kumar K, Kriskna Kumar K, Pant GB, Srinivasan G (2002) Climate Change-The

Indian Scenario, In: Backgroud Paper prepared by FICCI, International Conference

on Science & Technology Capacity Building for Climate Change October 20-

22,New Delhi,5-17,

Rupakumar,K., Kriskna Kumar,K. and Pant,G.B 1994, Diurnal assymetry of surface air

temperature trends over India., Geophysics Res. Lett. 15,677-680


Saseendran, SA, Singh KK, Rathore LS, Singh SV, Sinha SK (2000) Effect of climate

change on rice production in tropical humid climate of Kerla, India. Climate Change

44: 495-514.

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Climate. In the conference proceedings for The Changing Atmosphere: Implications

for Global Security, 27-30 June 1988, in Toronto, Canada, 167-192. WMO-No. 170.

Geneva: World Meteorological Organization.

Singh OP, Alikhan TM, Rahaman MS, 2000, Changes in the frequency of tropical

Cyclones over the north Indian ocean. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 75:11-20.

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Decadal trends in climate over India. Mausam, 43,7-20.

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42,333-338.

India 79

Appendix-I

National Agromet Advisory Bulletin

Thursday, 18th August, 2011

(For(For(For(For thethethethe periodperiodperiodperiod 18181818thththth AugustAugustAugustAugust totototo 22222222ndndndnd August,August,August,August, 2011)2011)2011)2011)

Satellite image 0600 UTC Dated 19th August, 2011

Issued by

National Agrometeorological Advisory Service Centre

Agricultural Meteorology Division

India Meteorological Department, Shivajinagar, Pune.

The bulletin is also displayed in the website (http://www.imdagrimet.gov.in) of the Division


Executive Summary

Due to receipt of good amount of rainfall during last two weeks transplanting of paddy was

completed in most parts of the country and this rain also helped the normal growth of

standing paddy crop. There are reports of damage of standing paddy crop in low lying areas

of West Bengal and parts of Assam and Meghalaya. The paddy crop which was facing

moisture stress condition during the end of July in parts of Bihar and Jharkhand also

benefited due to adequate rainfall during last two weeks. Farmers in East Uttar Pradesh were

benefited with the recent rainfall as paddy is the major crop sown in this area. At present,

parts of Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada region, standing crops like cotton, soybean,

sesamum, niger etc. are facing moisture stress condition. Farmers in these areas are advised

to give irrigation to the standing crops. There are also some reports of moisture stress

condition in parts of Haryana. As there was sufficient rainfall in Rayalaseema during last

week, groundnut crop is likely to recover from wilting symptoms especially in Anantapur,

Cuddapah and Kurnool. Farmers are advised to continue sowing of groundnut and short

duration varieties of red gram, black gram, castor and field bean. Fruit dropping have been

noticed in Himachal Pradesh in Apples, Pomogranates and cherries due to heavy rainfall

during last week.

In view of good amount of rainfall reported from most / many districts of Arunachal

Pradesh, Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttar

Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, East Rajasthan, Gujarat, Konkan and Goa, Madhya

Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Orissa, West Bengal, Kerala, Coastal, South Interior Karnataka and

Rayalaseema during last week. Widespread / fairly widespread rainfall is also likely to occur

during next three days in East Uttar Pradesh, East India, Northeastern states and along west

coast, farmers of these parts of the country are advised to complete sowing of kharif crops.

Postpone irrigation in the already sown crops.

As isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Orissa, Coastal Karnataka and

Kerala during next 48 hours and isolated heavy rainfall would occur over East Uttar Pradesh,

Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and

Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during next 24 hours, farmers in these States are

advised to arrange adequate drainage facilities in the already sown crop fields to avoid water

stagnation.

Due to deficient rainfall during last fortnight in Marathwada, infestation of girdle beetle in

soyabean above ETL was noticed. Due to heavy rainfall during the week in Himachal

Pradesh, black spot may occur in apples and there is a chance of stem borer attack due to

water logging in maize. Farmers are advised to undertake appropriate plant protection

measures to control the pests and diseases. No other major pest and disease incidences were

observed during last week in the country.

India 81

Realised rainfall for the States of Maharashtra, Haryana, Himachal

Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh during last few weeks State/Districts Actual 20.07.11 Actual 27.07.11 Actual 03.08.11 Actual 10.08.11 Actual 17.08.11

Himachal Pradesh

Bilaspur 89.3 4 21.1 -75 26.7 -67 20.5 -78 302.2 359

Chamba 37.6 -60 35.0 -63 10.5 -87 63.0 -25 122.0 64

Hamirpur 96.2 -15 39.2 -61 47.8 -50 70.9 -28 361.0 212

Kangra 95.5 -37 127.4 -21 79.4 -52 262.2 61 256.0 55

Kinnaur 5.5 -55 40.6 272 2.6 -73 24.9 122 74.7 430

Kullu 28.4 -54 50.1 -16 16.4 -67 54.9 43 204.3 408

Lahaul and Spiti 2.6 -94 0.2 -99 0.0 -100 16.0 -45 93.4 183

Mandi 45.2 -59 118.9 0 36.0 -70 94.1 -6 249.5 174

Shimla 44.3 -43 55.2 -17 5.2 -92 52.8 -3 105.5 89

Sirmaur 115.3 -4 86.8 -38 34.0 -72 55.6 -57 126.7 -6

Solan 138.9 41 30.4 -68 10.2 -88 16.0 -81 113.8 24

Una 120.8 63 33.6 -52 13.2 -84 115.1 51 322.4 329

Haryana

Ambala 55.9 -10 93.3 37 33.2 -50 23.9 -63 58.2 3

Bhiwani 8.5 -74 0.0 -100 10.5 -65 25.9 -15 6.6 -82

Chandigarh 103.1 65 41.8 -34 33.2 -54 36.9 -57 91.5 29

Faridabad 25.5 -39 17.0 -65 27.5 -32 39.3 -8 90.3 126

Fatehabad 6.5 -71 0.8 -98 13.3 -52 26.9 10 7.0 -70

Gurgaon 2.0 -96 32.0 -42 26.6 -38 16.0 -68 38.2 -25

Hissar 8.7 -69 2.3 -93 17.8 -28 18.2 -33 2.0 -94

Jhajar 1.5 -96 0.0 -100 58.9 85 2.7 -92 12.0 -68

Jind 1.9 -95 1.4 -95 25.3 -17 12.0 -64 27.4 -9

Katihal 4.0 -91 0.0 -100 18.3 -47 3.5 -92 12.5 -71

Karnal 11.0 -80 25.0 -35 16.3 -63 22.9 -50 51.5 -15

Kurukshetra 5.2 -90 2.6 -94 0.2 -99 14.6 -65 25.9 -52

Mahendragarh 26.1 -40 0.0 -100 12.4 -52 12.0 -69 19.6 -62

Palwal 1.6 -96 46.8 -5 13.8 -66 42.6 0 65.3 63

Panchkkula 63.0 -17 27.3 -65 9.8 -89 28.8 -64 58.4 -27

Panipat 1.4 -97 1.4 -97 0.5 -99 5.7 -86 31.5 -38

Rewari 9.8 -80 3.5 -93 1.2 -97 22.1 -63 24.1 -56

Rohtak 1.1 -98 1.2 -98 13.3 -62 24.7 -32 9.4 -78

Sirsa 18.3 -25 0.0 -100 9.4 -64 88.3 500 20.2 -20

Sonepat 19.4 -58 9.4 -83 9.9 -78 19.3 -51 45.5 -19

Yamunanagar 69.7 9 29.1 -62 35.1 -59 17.5 -79 94.9 29

New Delhi 10.5 -82 17.8 -72 11.9 -80 13.4 -80 72.8 27

Maharashtra

Konkan & Goa

Goa 405.3 54 169.2 -36 338.4 44 152.3 -20 78.7 -54

Mumbai 404.8 111 120.6 -20 542.6 237 35.3 -70 40.7 -67

Raigad 565.0 97 172.3 -31 557.6 102 136.6 -31 116.9 -47

Ratnagiri 719.6 157 308.6 14 695.5 149 138.8 -35 93.7 -56

Sindhudurg 467.9 86 235.9 -14 434.5 89 125.8 -31 75.9 -54

Thane 356.5 46 65.7 -67 473.5 132 90.7 -47 120.6 -29

Madhya

Maharashtra

Ahmednagar 35.1 47 21.8 -5 20.0 -8 2.2 -88 3.9 -77

Dhule 56.8 62 24.3 -40 14.5 -62 31.5 -15 19.3 -25

Jalgaon 53.3 24 21.3 -51 77.4 57 41.5 -24 8.3 -80

Kolhapur 287.6 75 136.8 -17 140.5 -4 123.8 -6 81.2 -34

Nandurbar 78.7 10 39.8 -42 43.0 -37 88.8 34 109.2 110

Nasik 98.2 37 50.2 -29 57.2 -27 34.1 -49 56.8 -4

Pune 130.1 85 25.8 -60 38.5 -47 23.2 -61 34.4 -40

Sangli 50.5 38 18.2 -41 18.2 -46 10.9 -60 17.7 -28

Satara 187.1 201 65.0 22 73.3 22 60.6 36 63.3 43

Solapur 20.5 -11 11.0 -57 40.2 53 2.2 -89 1.0 -95

Marathwada

Aurangabad 34.7 -4 25.5 -35 48.6 17 16.1 -55 4.3 -86

Beed 98.5 224 46.5 32 37.3 9 9.1 -64 1.8 -94

Hingoli 49.9 -2 19.5 -66 33.4 -51 53.3 -3 14.1 -77


Jalna 50.3 38 43.8 4 39.1 -9 23.2 -34 3.3 -90

Latur 136.7 228 26.4 -57 87.3 40 11.7 -72 6.9 -86

Nanded 70.5 47 17.8 -73 91.1 35 31.7 -33 16.1 -72

Usmanabad 38.4 20 10.5 -73 60.7 47 2.1 -93 3.2 -90

Parbhani 104.4 164 70.7 22 48.6 -19 17.2 -55 7.1 -86

Vidarbha

Akola 58.0 1 34.3 -40 7.4 -85 24.7 -60 19.4 -51

Amraoti 95.9 57 62.1 6 18.2 -71 65.7 -6 53.2 0

Bhandara 167.0 86 75.9 -5 10.5 -88 161.8 41 47.0 -44

Buldhana 71.9 65 19.0 -58 35.1 -29 26.4 -53 8.3 -79

Chandrapur 68.6 -13 42.2 -51 42.4 -55 107.4 12 84.3 1

Gadchiroli 121.0 18 56.4 -47 36.7 -68 136.7 28 101.2 -5

Gondia 143.5 42 146.3 63 27.7 -72 151.3 39 47.8 -49

Nagpur 140.7 95 64.6 1 20.1 -72 129.5 72 52.3 -5

Wardha 94.9 55 53.1 -15 24.2 -64 92.0 25 82.5 33

Washim 96.0 71 40.3 -29 33.8 -44 51.8 -27 16.8 -71

Yeotmal 92.8 53 36.8 -41 38.3 -40 64.6 -4 45.0 -25

Andhra Pradesh

Coastal Andhra Pradesh

East Godavari 58.9 30 26.1 -49 46.5 12 42.4 -6 60.7 35

Guntur 14.6 -54 49.7 26 65.2 85 8.5 -70 22.1 -44

Krishna 47.5 10 44.7 -23 104.8 113 13.0 -68 34.7 -31

Nellore 2.1 -90 24.5 -7 38.1 116 6.0 -70 9.8 -58

Prakasam 5.0 -78 20.3 -25 16.2 -28 8.2 -47 13.7 -38

Sirkakulam 21.1 -52 18.2 -62 73.9 70 25.3 -43 37.9 -19

Visakhapatnam 17.7 -56 33.0 -28 58.9 48 32.4 -13 32.1 -29

Vizianagram 18.7 -52 43.0 -4 52.9 26 10.0 -72 34.8 -23

West Godavari 63.5 27 37.5 -40 102.1 108 20.6 -63 42.2 -25

Telangana

Adilabad 81.0 19 26.7 -67 110.2 45 48.4 -28 29.6 -58

Hyderabad 51.5 33 60.9 17 17.8 -63 6.5 -84 15.8 -67

Karimnagar 76.1 47 36.3 -43 61.2 2 20.4 -63 33.2 -39

Khammam 104.2 75 34.9 -52 45.9 -38 27.5 -54 50.7 -21

Mehabubnagar 9.6 -74 53.9 27 68.3 59 13.7 -56 16.7 -58

Medak 81.8 62 31.3 -49 86.0 44 29.4 -36 46.5 -14

Nalgonda 21.1 -43 55.3 29 23.2 -35 3.5 -88 10.5 -71

Nizamabad 123.4 118 50.3 -34 135.3 81 38.0 -42 36.9 -49

Rangareddy 26.6 -37 39.6 -22 57.6 23 5.9 -82 24.8 -47

Warangal 81.1 42 29.3 -59 114.6 91 9.1 -83 57.5 -2

Rayalaseema

Anantapur 4.2 -72 51.4 194 10.4 -33 12.1 -19 24.6 59

Chittoor 9.0 -63 67.8 138 24.4 27 14.5 -46 63.1 161

Cuddapah 0.7 -97 70.0 141 18.1 -22 3.6 -86 31.5 25

Kurnool 2.7 -89 53.6 71 39.4 33 14.7 -43 30.9 5

(20% or more) excess rainfall (-60 to -99 %) scanty rainfall

(-19 to +19%) normal rainfall (-100%) no rainfall

(-20 to -59% )deficient rainfall ** Data not available

India 83

Distribution of rainfall for remaining states of the country during

last week

State / Districts Actual 17.08.11

Arunachal Pradesh

Changlang 31.3 -72

East Kameng 49.2 -27

East Siang 223.6 37

Lohit 42.6 -63

Lower Subansiri 70.0 26

Papumpara 194.0 76

Tawang 60.0 -59

Tirap 29.6 -75

Upper Siang 55.4 -59

Upper Subansiri 72.6 29

West Kameng 137.0 -6

West Siang ** **

Assam

Barpeta 159.3 -3

Bongaigaon 181.4 34

Cachar 80.6 -26

Darrang 198.8 47

Dhubri 130.0 39

Dibrugarh 150.6 63

East Garo Hills 347.1 329

East Khasi Hills 522.3 119

Goalpara 54.9 -43

Golghat 63.1 1

Hailakandi 45.3 -53

Jaintia Hills 179.0 -27

Jorhat 115.3 55

Kamrup 65.0 -11

Karbi Analog 56.4 18

Karimganj 226.0 118

Kokrajhar 263.0 54

Lakhimpur 216.3 83

Morigaon 59.0 -17

N.C.Hills 61.0 37

Nowgong 37.6 -38

Nalbari 86.3 15

Sonitpur 151.6 7

Sibsagar 81.2 7

Tinsukia 110.3 12

Himachal Pradesh

Bilaspur 302.2 359

Chamba 122.0 64

Hamirpur 361.0 212

Kangra 256.0 55

Kinnaur 74.7 430

Kullu 204.3 408

Lahaul and Spiti 93.4 183

Mandi 249.5 174

Shimla 105.5 89

Sirmaur 126.7 -6

Solan 113.8 24

Una 322.4 329

Punjab

Amritsar 52.9 15

Barnala 42.8 10

Bhatinda 69.7 123

Faridkot 21.6 -29

Fatehgarh Saheb 201.3 387

Ferozpur 44.8 81

Gurdaspur 103.4 51

Hoshiarpur 161.7 157

Jalandhar 156.5 236

Kapurthala 75.4 120

Ludhiana 195.1 320

Mansa 10.2 -70

Moga 33.6 -1

Muktesar 6.0 -77

Nawashahar 263.8 386

Patiala 93.6 130

Ropar 233.1 318

Sangrur 31.6 -19

Mohali 37.2 -9

TarnTaran 39.1 -15

Jammu & Kashmir

Anantnag 44.9 225

Badgam 58.2 547

Doda 67.6 248

Jammu 202.2 149

Kathua 95.4 -6

Kupwara 6.5 -45

Ladakh(Leh) 5.0 25

Pulwama 23.4 76

Srinagar 22.9 71

Udhampur 100.5 -8

East Madhya Pradesh

Anuppur 145.7 40

Balaghat 78.9 -39

Chhatarpur 33.6 -64

Chindwara 16.6 -77

Damoh 18.4 -80

Dindori 199.1 87

Jabalpur 50.6 -55

Katni 1.0 -99

Mandla 132.2 0

Narsingpur ** **

Panna 24.4 -76

Rewa 0.4 -100

Sagar 37.0 -64

Satna 55.2 -42

Seoni 73.6 -19

Shahdol 91.0 -2

Sidhi 0.0 -100

Singrauli 122.0 83

Tikamgarh 39.8 -55

Umaria 79.8 -31

West Madhya Pradesh

Alirajpur 124.6 123

Asoknagar 2.5 -97

Badwani 48.7 15

Betul 44.8 -43

Bhind 58.1 -28

Bhopal ** **

Burhanpur 7.5 -88

Datia 15.7 -81

Dewas 55.0 -33

Dhar 78.1 41

Guna 50.4 -38

Gwalior 42.0 -45

Harda 11.7 -89

Hosangabad 35.5 -72

Indore 61.0 -1

Jhabua 98.2 101

Khandwa 29.1 -58

Khargone 29.6 -44

Mandsaur 34.9 -43

Morena 265.8 232

Neemuch 55.5 -19

Raisen 17.2 -83

Rajgarh 13.7 -82

Ratlam 156.1 143

Sehore 20.5 -78

Shajapur 23.9 -67

Sheopur Kalani 9.5 -88

Shivpuri 12.7 -81

Ujjain 64.9 9

Vidisha 42.3 -56

Chattisgarh

Bastar 15.2 -83

Bijapur 67.5 -41

Bilaspur 114.7 31

Dantewara 101.6 16

Dhamtari 34.6 -59

Durg 24.0 -70

Janjgir 99.8 -11

Jashpurnagar 135.9 37

Kanker 80.5 -22

Korba 140.1 19

Koriya 199.6 103

Kawardha 37.0 -46

Mahasumund 44.8 -50

Narayanpur 59.5 -40

Raigarh 58.6 -33

Raipur 41.3 -51

Rajandgaon 33.6 -56

Surguja 126.9 49

East Uttar Pradesh

Allahabad 146.8 102

Ambedkar Nagar 103.0 58

Azamgarh 73.3 -3

Bahraich 66.4 5

Ballia 43.8 -39

Balrampur 49.2 -34

Banda 172.5 79

Barabanki 128.6 62

Basti 74.0 3

Chandauli 91.0 20

Deoria 99.5 8

Faizabad 71.1 8

Farrukhabad 121.5 44

Fatehpur 54.6 -36

Gazipur 99.9 29

Gonda 53.3 -23

Gorakhpur 65.6 -22

Hardoi 154.5 135

Jaunpur 69.7 2

Kannauj 142.3 70

Kanpur City 70.0 3

Kanpur Dehat 156.3 141

Kaushambi 80.5 15


Kheri 162.6 117

Kushi nagar 48.5 -48

Lucknow 234.3 216

Maharajganj 14.6 -86

Mau 76.0 -7

Mirzapur 167.8 133

Pratapgarh 78.0 5

RaiBarelly 67.3 -11 Sahuji Maharajnagar 174.0 117

Sant Kabirnnagar 30.0 -62 Sant Ravidas Nagar 67.0 -12

Shrawasti 97.1 53

Sidharthnagar 46.8 -39

Sitapur 187.3 162

Sonbhadra 146.7 93

Sultanpur 60.3 -18

Unnao 100.9 28

Varanasi 133.6 145

West Uttar Pradesh

Agra 38.6 -49

Aligarh 111.3 78

Auraiya 176.6 165

Badaun 90.6 23

Baghpat 41.5 -31

Bareilly 213.5 181

Bijnor 277.0 218

Bulandsahar 124.8 74

Etah 62.5 -12

Etawah 122.3 68

Firozabad 73.4 13

GBNagar 162.0 199

Ghaziabad 75.0 30

Hamirpur 84.1 -3

Jalaun 119.4 45

Jhansi 56.2 -33 Jotirba Phule Nagar 153.3 85

Kanshiramnagar 145.5 105

Lalitpur 21.0 -75

Mahamaya Nagar 135.1 96

Mahoba 48.6 -48

Mainpuri 89.5 21

Mathura 40.3 -35

Meerut 100.9 43

Moradabad 262.8 227

Muzzaffarnagar 42.1 -39

Pilibhit 163.4 104

Rampur 101.2 38

Saharanpur 19.3 -73

Shahjahanpur 103.8 40

UttaraKhand

Almora 247.6 235

Bageshwar 123.0 67

Chamoli 128.9 64

Champawat 387.8 353

Dehradun 275.9 61

Garhwal Pauri 191.2 57

Garhwal Tehri 233.3 255

Haridwar 307.1 222

Nainital 376.3 247

Pithorgarh 218.7 83

Rudraprayag 172.4 3 Udham Sing Nagar 336.0 228

Uttarkashi 219.6 75

Bihar

Araria 167.0 119

Arwal 91.8 34

Aurangabad 112.6 89

Banka 50.4 -10

Begusarai 77.2 -1

Bhabua 163.5 116

Bhagalpur 49.7 -11

Bhojpur 31.0 -50

Buxar 23.2 -66

Darbhanga 63.3 5

East Champaran 69.6 22

Gaya 188.1 161

Gopalganj 67.2 4

Jahanabad 95.1 75

Jamui 98.5 56

Kathihar 53.5 -22

Khagadia 44.8 -34

Kishanganj 242.1 110

Lakhisarai 50.1 -14

Madhepura 85.5 37

Madhubani 46.2 -21

Monghyar 77.0 32

Muzaffarpur 75.7 34

Nalanda 105.6 82

Nawada 50.3 -21

Patna 40.8 -32

Purnea 167.6 159

Rohtas 165.3 126

Saharsha 129.5 114

Samstipur 109.2 95

Saran 41.5 -40

Sheikpura 32.8 -40

Sheohar 44.0 -38

Sitamarhi 45.2 -36

Siwan 27.3 -62

Supaul 100.9 67

Vaishali 20.4 -68

West Champaran 80.7 7

Jharkhand

Bokaro 224.7 232

Chatra 145.5 86

Deoghar 161.2 146

Dhanbad 181.3 188

Dumka 102.1 33

East Singbhum 206.4 191

Garhwa 157.4 83

Giridih 177.0 192

Godda 91.9 70

Gumla 142.0 62

Hazaribagh 63.6 -8

Jamtara 132.0 52

Khunti 160.3 144

Koderna 104.6 76

Latehar 178.0 162

Lohardagga 206.3 222

Pakur 113.0 26

Palamau 172.9 124

Ramgarh 312.8 351

Ranchi 235.7 259

Sahebganj 204.8 174

Seraikela 140.3 125

Simdega 112.2 28

West Singbhum 174.5 127

East Rajasthan

Ajmer 57.5 37

Alwar 52.8 -2

Banswara 52.7 -11

Baran 26.5 -63

Bharatpur 31.0 -45

Bhilwara 34.2 -41

Bundi 22.7 -63

Chittorgarh 40.8 -37

Dausa 76.6 36

Dholpur 13.8 -80

Dungarpur 55.8 22

Jaipur 65.1 38

Jhalawar 8.1 -90

Jhunjhunu 20.1 -43

Karauli 44.0 -40

Kota 27.3 -59

Pratapgarh 33.4 -48

Rajsamand 120.3 151

Sawai Madhopur 50.1 -21

Sikar 46.9 30

Sirohi 250.4 213

Tonk 65.5 21

Udaipur 57.8 27

West Rajasthan

Barmer 101.4 324

Bikaner 44.1 141

Churu 19.3 -12

Hanumangarh 27.3 38

Jaisalmer 92.8 340

Jalore 135.2 267

Jodhpur 42.4 68

Nagaur 30.7 14

Pali 73.6 107

Sri Ganganagar 62.5 238

Gujarat Region

Ahmedabad 147.3 217

Anand 236.0 254

Banaskantha 158.5 267

Baroda 210.7 193

Broach 100.6 104

DNH 132.2 -18

Dahod 144.9 153

Daman 115.8 -29

Dangs 138.0 12

Gandhinagar 206.5 338

Kheda 156.4 168

Mehsana 171.6 271

Narmada 173.0 110

Navsari 127.6 7

Panchmahal 159.8 123

Patan 211.7 419

Sabarkantha 144.2 147

Surat 148.1 87

Tapi 112.9 17

Valsad 141.9 11

Saurashtra, Kutch & Diu region

Amreli 42.7 47

Bhavnagar 72.3 123

Diu 31.3 -11

Jamnagar 58.9 104

Junagarh 78.1 108

Kutch 180.9 572

Porbandar 5.5 -84

Rajkot 115.1 248

Surendranagar 116.1 260

Orissa

Angul 104.3 27

Balasore 117.9 48

Bargarh 76.2 -14

Bhadrak 103.4 21

India 85

Bolangir 56.3 -36

Boudh 104.4 13

Cuttack 74.3 -1

Deogarh 79.1 -35

Dhenkanal 173.5 102

Gajapati 42.9 -36

Ganjam 30.8 -44

Jagatsingpur 34.9 -55

Jajpur 127.2 63

Jharsuguda 64.5 -39

Kalahandi 117.1 15

Kandhamal 77.9 -15

Kendrapara 73.7 -20

Keonjhar 111.1 38

Khurda 46.3 -40

Koraput 29.7 -70

Malkangiri 64.0 -47

Mayurbhanj 114.5 32

Nawapara 43.7 -42

Nawarangpur 56.3 -53

Nayagarh 107.7 27

Puri 52.5 -23

Rayagada 65.5 -1

Sambalpur 102.9 -15

Sonepur 46.0 -60

Sundargarh 84.3 -12

West Bengal

GWB

Bankura 120.0 68

Birbhum 110.0 49

Burdwan 116.1 66

Hooghly 136.0 127

Howrah 139.6 115

East Midnapore 102.0 40

Murshidabad 119.7 79

Nadia 157.1 154

24 Pargana (N) 145.8 94

Purulia 142.5 105

24 Pargana (S) 200.1 121

West Midnapore 200.4 176

SHWB

Cooch Behar 202.4 -7

Darjeeling 257.8 69

East Sikkim 153.3 81

Jalpaiguri 229.6 43

Malda 154.9 142

North Dinajpur 126.2 68

North Sikkim 87.1 -11

South Dinajpur 212.3 258

South Sikkim 229.9 172

West Sikkim 68.0 -30

Karnataka

Coastal Karnataka

Dakshin Kannada 184.3 -14

Udupi 196.8 -16

Uttar Kannada 129.4 -27

North Interior Karnataka

Bagalkote 8.0 -51

Belgaum 10.9 -65

Bidar 23.8 -48

Bijapur 4.5 -78

Dharwad 7.8 -71

Gadag 6.0 -62

Gulbarga 24.7 -41

Haveri 10.9 -61

Koppal 14.6 -21

Raichur 10.3 -65

Yadgir 19.5 -51

South Interior Karnataka

Bangalore Rural 123.4 347

Bangalore Urban 102.3 219

Bellary 12.4 -35

Chamarajnagar 20.2 54

Chichballapur 68.0 198

Chickmagalur 53.5 -53

Chitradurga 1.9 -84

Davangere 3.9 -82

Hassan 12.1 -60

Kodagu 54.4 -60

Kolar 56.6 175

Mandya 10.2 -10

Mysore 13.7 -5

Ramnagara 48.6 114

Shimoga 66.6 -37

Tumkur 22.5 27

Kerala

Alappuzha 94.4 34

Kannur 88.3 -31

Ernakulam 80.8 -14

Idukki 92.8 -29

Kasaragod 112.0 -26

Kollam 12.5 -76

Kottayam 99.3 15

Kozhikode 87.8 -23

Malappuram 85.2 -9

Palakkad 56.6 -33

Pathanamthitta 82.9 8

Thiruvanantapuram 0.3 -99

Thrissur 92.6 -13

Wyanad 46.3 -65

Tamil Nadu

Chennai 11.0 -67

Coimbatore 11.7 28

Cuddalore 38.6 37

Dharmapuri 65.7 214

Dindigul 45.5 222

Erode 31.4 188

Kanchipuram 60.1 60

Kanyakumari 0.0 -99

Karur 22.8 104

Krishnagiri 66.2 198

Madurai 46.6 182

Nagapattinam 37.1 82

Namakkal 33.4 49

Nilgiris 42.2 -6

Perambalur 29.8 106

Puducherry 103.6 233

Pudukottai 29.1 29

Ramanathapuram 33.2 245

Salem 56.0 115

Sivaganga 32.7 106

Thanjavur 36.9 62

Theni 21.7 164

Tirunelveli 2.5 -49

Tiruvallur 55.8 79

Tiruvannamalai 157.7 400

Tiruvarur 23.3 14

Toothukudi 7.4 118

Trichy 24.4 73

Vellore 72.2 148

Villupuram 55.8 104

Virudhunagar 27.8 136


Weather Forecast (Valid upto1430 hours of 21

st August, 2011)

Major Feature of Weather Forecast upto1430 hours IST of 21st August, 2011

• Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over east Uttar Pradesh, east India, northeastern states, Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and along

west coast.

• Scattered rain/thundershowers would occur over central and adjoining peninsular India during next 24 hours and increase thereafter.

• Isolated rain/thundershowers would occur over remaining parts of the country.

Weather Warning

• Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Orissa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala during next 48 hours.

• Isolated heavy rainfall would occur over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, Manipur,

Mizoram & Tripura during next 24 hours.

India 87

Weather Outlook up to 1430 hours IST of 23rd August, 2011

• Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over Gujarat, west coast and northeastern states.

• Subdued rainfall activity over remaining parts of the country.

Zonewise Agromet Advisories

EAST INDIA [JHARKHAND, BIHAR, ORISSA, WEST BENGAL &SIKKIM]

• Realised Rainfall: Most of the districts of the States of the region received rainfall

during last week.

• Rainfall Forecast: Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over the

region. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Orissa during next 48

hours and isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal

& Sikkim during next 24 hours.

• Advisories:

� In view of likely occurrence of fairly widespread rain / thundershowers over the States of the region during the period, farmers are advised to postpone irrigation,

intercultural operation and application of plant protection measures and

fertilizers to the standing crops in these States. In view of isolated heavy to very

heavy rainfall over Orissa and isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Bihar,

Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim farmers are advised to arrange for adequate

drainage to avoid water stagnation in the fields.

� In Jharkhand, farmers are advised to complete transplanting of rice within a week using SRI method. Undertake sowing of urd and improved & short

duration varieties of horse gram in upland in Central and North Eastern Plateau

Zone of Jharkhand.

� Farmers in Western Plateau Zone of Jharkhand are advised to continue sowing of kharif crops like rice, maize, groundnut, urd, arhar etc. utilizing monsoon

rain. Prepare the land and undertake sowing / transplanting of kharif vegetables

like bhindi, bean, tomato, French bean, cauliflower, cabbage etc.A good amount

of rain has been occurred during last 4 days and light to heavy rain is also

expected during next four days. Hence, maintain the water level in rice field and

well drained field of different upland crops. � In South Eastern Plateau Zone of Jharkhand, farmers are advised to undertake sowing of

maize, arhar, green gram, black gram and groundnut. Also complete sowing of arhar as

sole crop as well as intercrop with any of the crops like jowar, maize, groundnut,

soybean, urd, moong bean and okra.

� Undertake sowing of arhar, green gram black gram and cowpea, transplanting of rice and planting of mangoes, marigold in Orissa utilizing monsoon rain. Also

undertake sowing of ragi and sesame as the weather is optimum for sowing of

these crops.

� Farmers in West Bengal are advised to undertake sowing of maize, early tomato and cauliflower, transplanting of aman rice in low land and start cultivation of


mushroom. Drain out excess water from already planted ginger and turmeric

fields in Terai Zone.

� Moderate to heavy rainfall has been forecasted for the next four days in laterite and red soil zone of West Bengal. Farmers are advised to postpone irrigation and

provide drainage facilities to avoid waterlogging. Apply 16:24:8 kg N: P: K per

acre astotal fertilizer & for top dressing apply 16:0:8 N: P: K for composite

variety. for hybrid variety 19:28:10 as total & for top dressing 19:0:9 at 30 DAS

after current spells of rain.

� In New Alluvial Zone of West Bengal, maintain stagnant water (2 to 3 cm) upto 10 days in rice field after transplanting due to realised rainfall. Increase the

depth of stagnant water with age of crop. � Due flooding situation occurred in Coastal Saline Zone then check the drainage system. Farmers are advised to restrict seedling destruction under submerged field

condition. In place of destruction use those seedlings for gap filing in the field.

� Farmers in Old Alluvial Zone of West Bengal are advised to complete transplanting of Kharif rice within this week and maintain 2-3cm depth of water

in the field up to 7-10 days.

� Farmers in the districts of North West Alluvial Plain Zone of Bihar are advised to transplant short duration rice varieties with available rain water and remove

the weeds from the field.

� Farmers in South Bihar Alluvial Zone are advised to undertake transplanting of vegetable crops like brinjal, tomato, chilli and cauliflower on ridges, if seedlings

are ready. This is time for late sowing of arhar, sesame and also for transplanting

of fruit trees. As sowing time of long and medium duration varieties of rice in

the nursery is almost over, short duration varieties of rice should be sown in the

nursery as soon as possible. Farmers are also advised to transplant ready

seedlings of rice through SRI method.

� Suitable varieties of the crops for sowing or transplanting are mentioned in Annexure II.

� In some pockets, of Western Plateau Zone of Jharkhand, rice crops are attacked either by stem borer or leaf eater insects like rice hispa, leaf roller etc., spray

Monocrotophos @ 1.5 ml per litre of water or Chlorpyriphos @ 2 ml per litre of

water during clear weather condition. In the solution of insecticide, mix Tipol or

Sandovit @ 0.5 ml per litre of solution.

� Prevailing weather condition is conducive for attack of tikka/ leaf spot disease in groundnut in Western Plateau Zone of Jharkhand,spray the fungicide Kavach (@

2 gm per litre of water) or Indofil M-45 (5 gm) + Bavistin (1 gm) in 4 litres of

water during clear weather.

� The current weather is favourable for infestation of root rot of pointed gourd. Spray 10 g Plantomycine along with 20 g Blitox 50 in 10 litrevwater. Thrips in

Chilli has been found, spray 300 ml Ethion or 400 ml Carbosulphan/ acre in

Khurda, Keonjhar, Puri, Cuttack, Ganjam, Jagatsingpur and Nayagarh districts

of Orissa.

� Due to prevailing weather there may be aphids and thrips attack in Orissa on maize crop, so apply Dimethoate 30EC @ 400ml/acre and for yellow vein

mosaic virus in arhar, take prophylactic spray to control insect vector with

India 89

Dimethoate @ 300g a. i./ha or Methyl Demeton@ 250g a.i./ha.in Keonjhar and

Mayurbanj districts of Orissa.

� In the less rainfall areas of the North Eastern Plateau Zone of Orissa, in sugarcane crop there is chances of top borer attack, then release Trichogamma

@ 20000/acre for 2-4 times to control the bore and in Jajpur district of North

Eastern Coastal Plane Zone of Orissa, for control of pyrilla spray

Chloropyriphos@ 400 ml/acre in 200 litre of water and for red rot spray

Mancozeb @ 750 gm/acre in 200 litre of water.

� In Old Alluvial Zone of West Bengal, fruit and shoot borer may infestbrinjal in this weather condition. To manage this, spray Lamdacyhalothrin 2.5 EC @ 1.5

ml or Neem oil 2-3ml per litre of water. Also there may be infestation of collar

rot on vegetables; spray Copper oxychloride (Blitox) @4g/ Tricyclazole @0.5g/

Trichodermaviridae @ 4g per litre of water.

� In this weather condition, in New Alluvial Zone of West Bengal, combined attack of downy mildew and mosaic may be seen in bitter gourd and pointed

gourd; apply Redomil –MZ @ 2 g per litre of water.

� Undertake plant protection measures after current spells of rain. � Stages of major crops are mentioned in Annexure I.

• Animal Husbandry

� During this monsoon season there is a chance of black-quarter in Coastal Saline Zone of West Bengal; keep the cattle clean and if this disease occur, promptly

give penicillin and tetracycline and inoculate into the site of lesion. Cattle may

also be attacked by worm infection. Give medicine after testing the stool and

prohibit grazing in the field, keeping them under shade.

� In North Eastern Plateau Zone of Orissa, periodic vaccination viz. FMD, HS and BQ may be carried out to protect the dairy animals. Clean and hygienic water

should be fed to dairy animals. Keep the animal shed clean. RD vaccine should

be given immediately to the chicks which are 7 days old. To prevent coxidiosis

disease spray antibiotic solution named Kohrsolin-TH in the poultry house.

NORTHEAST INDIA [ARUNACHAL PRADESH, NMM&T, ASSAM, MEGHALAYA]

• Realised Rainfall: Most of the districts of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam received

rain during last week.

• Rainfall Forecast: Fairly widespread rain / thundershowers would occur over the

states of this region during next 24 hours. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely to occur

over the States of the region during next 24 hours.

• Advisory

� As most of the districts of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh received rain during last week and also fairly widespread rain / thundershowers would occur over the

states of this region, farmers are advised to postpone irrigation to the crops in

this region. Farmers are also advised to postpone intercultural operations and

application of fertilizer and plant protection measures. In view of occurrence of


isolated heavy rainfall during next 24 hours, farmers are advised to arrange for

adequate drainage to avoid water stagnation. � In Assam, farmers are advised to continue sowing of pulses, pigeon pea, cauliflower (early varieties), radish and planting of banana and pine apple. Taking the advantage

of adequate rain during last few weeks, farmers are also advised to prepare the land

and undertake transplanting of sali rice. Also start sowing of black gram, brinjal

(early varieties), country bean, Dolichos Bean, marua etc.

� In flood prone areas in Lower Bramhaputra Valley Zone in Assam, farmers are advised to raise nursery seedlings in flood free area or high lands and transplant

at a convenient time.

� In Manipur, for flooded areas, contingency nurseries with late variety / cold tolerant variety RC Maniphou 7 may be raised.

� Farmers in Tripura are advised to undertake preparation of main field and complete transplanting of aman rice.

� Farmers in Arunachal Pradesh are advised to undertake preparation of main field and complete transplanting of rice at the earliest.

� Farmers in Mid Tropical Hill Zone in Nagaland are advised to complete sowing of groundnut, soyabean, pulses and undertake transplanting of rice crop.

� Farmers in the States of the region are advised not to allow the rain water to stand in the maize crop as this crop is highly sensitive to standing water.

� Suitable varieties of the crops for sowing or transplanting are mentioned in Annexure II.

� In Central Bramhaputra Valley Zone in Assam, present situation of alternate drying and wetting condition may favour the occurrence of rotting of leaves and

stems of beetle vine and quick wilt of black pepper. Prophylactic application of

Bordeaux mixture may prevent the spread / outbreak of the diseases.

� In Hill Zone of Assam, there is chance of infestation of rice hispa where the crops are at tillering stage; farmers are advised to monitor the crop and spray

Quinolphos @ 2 teaspoonful / 5 litres of water to control the attack. � In North Bank Plain Zone in Assam, there is chance of attack of gummosis disease on citrus due to heavy rainfall and high relative humidity. Farmers are advised to

clean the affected portion and wash with ‘potash water’. Bordeaux mixture should

be used in affected area. As preventive measure, it is essential to drain out excess

water from the area. The weather is also favourable for pollu beetle grabs in black

pepper, which feed on tender berries; therefore, farmers are advised to apply

Endosalfan 35 EC or Dimmethoate 30 EC @ 1 ml / litre of water against grabs.

� In North Bank Plain Zone in Assam, farmers are advised to drain out the excess water as well as to move kerosene soaked rope over the crop to protect the rice

from the case worm infection.

� In North Bank Plain Zone in Assam, due to water stagnation in root zone, the betel vine may be infected with foot rot and leaf spot diseases. In addition to

keeping the root zone free from water stagnation, apply four drenches (in root

zone) with 1% Bordeaux mixture at 30 days interval and spray (on leaves) 0.5%

Bordeaux mixture at 15 days interval. � In Sub Tropical Hill Zone of Arunachal Pradesh, there is high possibility of infestation

of sheath blight on rice. Farmers are advised to remove collateral hosts from bunds and

spray Spencer / Bavistin @ 2 g / litre of water.

India 91

� In Mizoram, there is chance of infestation of rice stem borer, leaf hopper and plant hopper on rice due to substantial increase in minimum temperature and

evening humidity and an appreciable decrease in sunshine hours with occasional

rainfall; farmers are advised to monitor the crop and to apply Nuvacron /

Monocil 36 SL @ 1020 WG in 400 litre of water per ha. Also, due to prevailing

weather conditions, there is chance of incidence of gummosis in Khasi

Mandarin; farmers are advised to scrap the diseased portion and apply Bordeaux

paste. There is also chance of tikka disease in groundnut due to warm and moist

weather conditions; farmers are advised to burn plant disease debris. In severe

case, foliar spray with Bordeaux Mixture (4:4:50) is recommended.

� Due to hot and humid conditions and high wind speed, there is also chance of sigatoka leaf spot on banana in Mizoram and Tripura; farmers are advised to

apply Mancozeb @ 0.01%. There is also chance of development of tikka disease

in groundnut. To prevent, foliar spray with Bordeaux mixture (4:4:50) is

recommended. In low land, sheath blight may be noticed in rice due to

stagnation of rain water; the disease can be checked by spraying of Bavistin 50

WP @ 200 g or Tilt 25 EC or Monceren 250 SC @ 200 ml in 200 litres of water.

� In Ri-Bhoi, East Khasi and West Khasi hill districts of Meghalaya, there is chance of occurrence of blast disease in rice; farmers are advised to spray

Carbendazim 50 WP @ 1-1.5 g / litre of water. There is chance of wilt in

banana; farmers are advised to drench the field with 1-2 % Bordeaux mixture. � In Nagaland, due to high moisture in the soil, there is chance of stem rot in papaya;

farmers are advised to spray Copper oxychloride @ 3 g / litre of water.

� In Mild Tropical Plain Zone of Tripura, due to the prevailing humid weather, there is chance of attack of gundhi bug and sheath blight in upland rice; farmers

are advised to spray Imidachloprid @ 1.5 ml per liter of water for gundhi bug

and surf @ 1 g per litre of water for sheath blight.

� Apply plant protection measures after current spells of rain. � Stages of major crops are mentioned in Annexure I.

• Animal Husbandry:

� Undertake immunizations against Brucellosis, Foot and mouth disease (FMD), HS, BQ and Anthrax diseases in cattle and buffaloes in Central Bramhaputra

Valley Zone in Assam.

� Farmers in Arunachal Pradesh are advised to avoid dumping excreta and also to undertake deworming with broad spectrum anthelmantic viz., Albendazole,

Fenbendazole etc. Also provide adequate clean water to the pigs throughout the

day in present weather condition.

� Farmers in Manipur are advised to deworm the cattle, sheep, goat etc. and vaccinate against Haemorrhagic Septicemia. It is also advised to vaccinate

poultry birds against Coccidiosis, Ranikhet, Gumboro etc. It is also advised to

deworm and vaccinate pigs with SFV (Swine Fever vaccine).

� In Mizoram, vaccinate and deworm the pigs from swine fever and internal parasite. Avoid dampness to prevent from coccidiosis in poultry. Add

coccidiostats in the poultry feed for prevention of this disease.


NORTHWEST INDIA [JAMMU & KASHMIR, HIMACHAL PRADESH,

UTTARAKHAND, PUNJAB, HARYANA, DELHI, UTTAR PRADESH & RAJASTHAN]

• Realised Rainfall: Most of the districts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh,

Uttarakhand, many districts of Rajasthan, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana,

Delhi of this region received rainfall.

• Rainfall Forecast: Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers is likely to occur over

east Uttar Pradesh and isolated rain/thundershowers would occur over remaining

parts of this region. Isolated heavy rainfall would occur over east Uttar Pradesh

during next 24 hours.

• Advisory:

� As most of the districts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, many districts of Rajasthan, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi received

rainfall during last week, postpone irrigation to the standing crops. Provide

drainage facilities in East Uttar Pradesh as isolated heavy rainfall places is likely

during next 24 hours.

� Farmers are advised to adopt proper drainage to remove stagnant water from standing crops in Uttarakhand due to receipt of excess rainfall during last week.

Application of Urea as top dressing and weeding may be undertaken after

current spells of rain.

� Farmers in Bhabar and Tarai Zone of Uttarakhand are advised to undertake sowing of raddish, transplanting of broccoli and harvesting of matured

frenchbean, tomato, brinjal crops and also fodder grass.

� Farmers in Uttar Pradesh are advised to undertake sowing of vegetables viz. brinjal, chilli, lady’s finger, onion, gourd, bottle gourd, cucumber, toria and new

planting of mango, banana, papaya, banana, amrud, amla and lemon. Give

mechanical support to banana and sugarcane crop to avoid lodging due to wind.

� Farmers in Delhi are advised for hoeing and weeding of standing crops including vegetables. Transplanting of brinjal, tomato, chilli, cauliflower and

cabbage on raised bed may be undertaken and farmers are advised to undertake

transplanting of seedlings. Farmers are also advised to prepare nurseries of

cauliflower for mid season. Transplanting of onion may be undertaken.

Undertake sowing of sarson saag, radish, spinach and coriander.

� Farmers in Punjab and Haryana are advised to start sowing of radish, cauliflower using 250 g seed of mid season varieties. It is the right time for

planting evergreen fruit orchards of citrus, mango, litchi, jamun, guava and

loquat. Apply need based irrigation to sugarcane crop. Provide drain out excess

standing water from cotton, orchards, vegetable and maize field. Irrigation to

rice crop may be withheld as there was sufficient rainfall during last week.

� Continue sowing of sweet potato, Ashwagandha, cowpea, raddish, cauliflower, green gram, moth been, cluster bean in West Rajasthan utilising the realised

rainfall. Farmers are advised to apply first dose of nitrogen in bajra and continue

hoeing and weeding. Farmers are advised to harvest matured pods of cluster

beans.

India 93

� Nursery sowing of early varieties of cauliflower and cabbage may be undertaken in mid hills regions of Himachal Pradesh.

� Farmers in Jammu and Kashmir are advised to undertake sowing/nursery sowing of radish, cabbage and carrot, transplanting of basmati rice, cauliflower, knol

khol and chillies, planting of fruit plants like mango, citrus, litchi, loquat, guava

and papaya. Farmers are advised to undertake top dressing in late transplanted

rice, early sown maize, vegetable crops like bhindi, chillies, pumpkin, sponge

gourd, bitter gourd, bottle gourd, tomato and cauliflower.

� Due to prevailing weather in Himachchal Pradesh, scab and other diseases in apple orchards may appear. Farmers are advised to spray Dithane M- 45(2.0g/L)

as preventive spray on clear day and apply micronutrient in orchards to control

fruit drop problem. Heavy rains are expected in next week so skip irrigation and

ensure proper drainage to flowers beds. Weather is conducive for attack of blue

beetle in roses and balsam, for control spray metacid @ 0.05%.

� In Bhabar and Tarai zone of Uttarakhand, due to heavy rainfall during last week and excess moisture conditions, bacterial leaf blight (BLB) and bacterial leaf

streak diseases are expected in rice. If incidence is more than 10 % then farmers

are advised to spray 200 g Blightox-50 & 6 g streptocycline dissolved in 200

litres of water per acre two times within 10 days.

� Attack of tobacco caterpillar is observed in Narma cotton at some places of Sriganganagr district of Rajasthan. Farmers are advised to install pheromone

traps in the field or use Nuwaluron 10 EC 1.0 ml or Emomectine Benzate 5 SG

0.5 gm per litre. Attack of spotted bollworm is also seen in indeginous cotton,

for control farmers are advised to spray Fenvelrate 20 EC or Indoxacarb 14.5

S.C. 1 ml / litre water.

� In present weather condition in Delhi, constant monitoring for brown plant hopper in paddy field is advised. Farmers are advised to enter into the middle of

the crop field and see mosquito like insect at the basal portion of the plant.

� Farmers in Punjab and Haryana are to monitor the sugarcane crop for pyrilla and whitefly attack on crops. The standing cucurbits should be kept under vigil for

symptoms of blight and spray as per recommendation. There can be

development of anthracnose and blight in chilli after rains. So apply fungicides

as per recommendation.

� Due to presence of congenial weather bristle beetle attack the maize in Jammu & Kashmir, under such situation spray the crop with carbryl @0.1% or

endosulfan @ 0.07%, when weather remains clear.

� In Jammu & Kashmir, stem and root borer may likely to infect the rice crop due to prevailing weather situation under such situation, farmers are advised to apply

Phorat 10G@ 10kg/ha or Carbendazim3G @ 20 kg/ha, when 5% dead hearts or

egg mass/m2.

� Farmers are advised to postpone plant protection sprays in East Uttar Pradesh and continue spraying in the remaining region.

� Spraying may be undertaken after current spells of rain in the region. � Stages of major crops are mentioned in Annexure I.



� In some parts of Uttar Pradesh, farmers are advised to protect domestic animals from coming in direct contact with rains. Do not allow water to stagnant in their

sheds. Try to keep their litter dry.

� In Himachal Pradesh, Weather is conducive for spread of FMD and galghotu so, farmers are advised for vaccination of animals against FMD.

SOUTH INDIA [TAMILNADU, ANDHRA PRADESH, KERALA, KARNATAKA,

LAKSHADWEEP, ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS]

• Realised Rainfall: Most of the districts in Kerala except Thiruvananthapuram,

Coastal Karnataka, Bangalore Rural &Urban, Chickballapur, Chickmagalur,

Kodagu, Kolar, Mysore, Ramnagara and Shimoga districts in South Interior

Karnataka, most districts in Coastal Andhra Pradesh except Nellore, Guntur and

Prakasam, Karimnagar, Khammam, Medak, Warangal and Nizamabad in Telangana

and most districts in Tamil Nadu received good rainfall. No significant rainfall

occurred in North Interior Karnataka and the remaining parts of the region.

• Rainfall Forecast: Fairly widespread rainfall is likely in Kerala and Coastal

Karnataka and scattered rainfall is likely in Coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48

hrs. and increase thereafter. Scattered rain/thundershowers would occur over

remaining parts of peninsular India. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely in

Coastal Karnataka and Kerala during next 48 hours.

• Advisories:

� As there was sufficient rainfall in most of the districts in Kerala except Thiruvananthapuram, Coastal Karnataka, Bangalore Rural & Urban,

Chickballapur, Chickmagalur, Kodagu, Kolar, Mysore, Ramnagara and Shimoga

districts in South Interior Karnataka, most districts in Coastal Andhra Pradesh

except Nellore, Guntur and Prakasam, Karimnagar, Khammam, Medak,

Warangal and Nizamabad in Telangana and most districts in Tamil Nadu, drain

out excess water and postpone irrigation to the crops. Apply irrigation to the

crops in North Interior Karnataka, where there was no significant rainfall.

Provide drainage facilities in Kerala and Coastal Karnataka as heavy rainfall is

expected during next 48 hours.

� Farmers in the Krishna Godavari Zone of Andhra Pradesh are advised to undertake gap filling in cotton, kharif sowing of black gram, green gram, red

gram, cotton and maize etc., utilizing realized rainfall.

� Farmers in the Eastern Dry Zone of Karnataka are advised to go for sowing as light to medium rain is expected in the coming four days and follow ploughing

for better rain water infiltration and other land preparation activities.

� Farmers in the North Dry Zone of Karnataka are advised to take up plant protection measures, harvest the matured green gram crop and continue sowing

of desi cotton, horse gram, maize and sunflower, since light to moderate amount

of rainfall is expected at few places.

India 95

� Farmers in the Southern Dry Zone of Karnataka are advised to undertake sowing of rice, ragi, sugarcane, cotton, sunflower, cowpea, soyabean, horsebeans, gram

and horticulture crops.

� Farmers in North East Dry Zone of Karnataka are advised to undertake intercultivation and hand weeding in early sown pigeon pea and cotton crops.

Harvesting of greengram is to be done carefully as there is forecast of rainfall.

Farmers are advised to continue sowing of pigeon pea in North East Dry Zone of

Karnataka.

� Farmers of North Transition Zone are advised to provide protective irrigation at the critical stages of crops, wherever possible, undertake plant protection

measures to prevent the crop withering from the biotic stress (sucking pests in

cotton and defoliators in groundnut, soybean and other crops.) and uproot and

destroy the heavily infested and infected crops with insects and diseases.

� Farmers in the Coastal Zone of Karnataka are advised to spray the Monocrotophos @ 1.5 ml/lit of water, since late planted paddy crop was infested

with thrips. Due to higher humidity, low temperature and frequent rains, it is

likely that leaf folder may occur on rice. Hence farmers are advised spray

Quinolphos @ 2ml/lit of water. Rotting of nuts and bunches of tree are also

noticed. Hence farmers are advised to spray 1% Bordeaux mixture.

� Farmers in the North Western Zone of Tamil Nadu are advised to go in for late sowing of groundnut after treating the seeds with Trichoderma viridii at a rate of

10 grams for every 1 kg of seed and planted at space of 30 cm between rows and

10 cm between plants as they received rainfall last week.

� As wind speed is high in High Altitude Hilly Zone of Tamil Nadu, wind breaks / shelter belts may be provided in wind prone areas and sowing / planting may be

completed by the end of this month.

� In rainfed areas of southern Telangana zone of Andhra Pradesh, where sowings have not been done, sow castor, sunflower, ragi, horsegram, redgram (close

spacing) and forage crops as contingent crops. Taking advantage of recently

received rains, top dress with urea @ 20-25 kg per acre in rainfed crops like

maize and cotton.

� Due to prevailing weather condition in the Problem areas zone of Kerala, attack of black bug is noticed in different fields. The farmers are advised to keep

regular watch over the fields and if the attack is found, they are advised to drain

off the field completely and consult the agricultural officer.

� Due to cold weather, pest and disease problems are noticed in groundnut, thrips, mites and murda -complex disease in chilli, sucking pest problem and cut worms

in cotton and brown plant hopper in rice. Hence farmers in the North Transition

Zone of Karnataka are advised to undertake precautionary measures to prevent

their attack.

� Due to continuous rain and decrease in temperature rust disease was noticed in soyabean in the North East Transition Zone of Karnataka. To control, spray

Propiconozole or Hexaconozole 1 ml per liter of water. Thrips, aphid and stem

fly were also noticed in greengram/ blackgram. As a control measure spray

Imidachlorprid @ 0.3 ml per litre of water.


� In Southern Dry Zone of Karnataka, brinjal crop is affected by shoot and fruit borer and turmeric crop by trips insects. Spray carbaril @ 4 gm/lt. of water to

control shoot and fruit borer and Mancozeb @ 2 gm/lts of water to control trips.

In paddy field zinc deficiency was noticed. To overcome this, apply zinc suphate

@ 8 kg/acre without mixing with fertilizer.

� In Kuruvai rice, diseases like bacterial leaf blight and bacterial leaf spot is noticed in Cauvery Delta Zone of Tamil Nadu, due to prevailing weather

condition. To control, apply 1 kg Pseudomonas fluorescence per acre along with

20 kg of FYM or sand in the main filed. There is wide spread occurrence of

black bug. To control the pest, spray Acephate @ 250 gm/acre (or)

Profennophas 400 ml/ acre along with sticking agent in the base of rice crop.

� Monitor thrips and leafhopper infection in cotton, mealybug infection in tapioca and red hairy caterpiller in groundnut in Western Zone of Tamil Nadu and take

the appropriate management measures. Since pod formation is a critical stage,

one or two irrigation is essential for rain-fed sorghum and the farmers are

advised to raise one row of cowpea for every five rows of rainfed groundnut

wherever red hairy caterpillar is endemic.

� Stem borer incidences are found in the paddy field in Southern Zone of Tamil Nadu. Monitor it using the light trap and spray neem oil @ 20 ml/lit or

Azadirachtin @ 3 ml/lit in the morning hours, tie trichogramma card @ 2

cc/acre and in when it reaches above ETL spray profenophos at 2.0 ml/lit of

water or Chlorpyriophos @ 2 ml per litre of water.

� Sucking pests, Helicoverpa, Spodoptera, bud ncerosis and leafminer were noticed in early sown groundnut crop in the Scarce Rainfall Zone of Andhra

Pradesh. To control bud necrosis, spray 1.6 ml monocrotophos or 2 ml

Dimethoate in lit of water and spray Monocrotophos @ 1.6 ml or

[email protected] ml per litre of water to control leaf miner.

� Banded leaf and sheath blight is observed in maize in some districts of Northern Telangana Zone of Andhra Pradesh. As and when the symptoms are noticed,

stripping of the affected bottom 2-3 leaves along with their sheath and spraying

of Propiconazole@ 1 ml/l in endemic areas is recommended.

� Due to prevailing dry weather sucking pest complex (thrips, jassids, mites and whitefly etc.,) occur in pulses and cotton in the Krishna Godavari Zone of

Andhra Pradesh. Farmers are advised to undertake appropriate plant protection

measures.

� Undertake plant protection measures after spells of rain in Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and on a non- rainy day over remaining region.

� Varieties are mentioned in Annexure II.

WEST INDIA [GOA, MAHARASHTRA, GUJARAT]

• Realised rainfall: All districts in Gujarat region and all districts in Saurashtra and

Kutch region except district Porbandar and most of the districts in Konkan &

Vidarbha received significant rain during last week.

• Rainfall forecast: Fairly wide spread rainfall would occur over Konkan and Goa,

Scattered/fairly wide spread rainfall would occur over Vidarbha region. Scattered

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rainfall would occur over Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada. Isolated rainfall

would occur over Saurashtra and Kutch region and isolated/scattered rainfall would

occur over Gujarat region.

• Advisory:

� Farmers are advised to postpone irrigation in Gujarat, Konkan and Vidarbha as there was sufficient rainfall during last week. In view of occurrence of

widespread rain over Konkan and Vidarbha, farmers are advised to postpone

irrigation, application of plant protection measures and fertilizers to the crops.

� Due to deficient rainfall during last fortnight in Marathwada, moisture stress in soyabean, sesamum, niger is reported and infestation of girdle beetle in

soyabean above ETL and infestation of aphids, jassids in cotton, jowar, tur is

noticed below ETL, farmers are advised to provide irrigation and apply

necessary plant protection measures.

� As Ahmednagar, Sangli and Solapur districts of Madhya Maharashtra received deficient rain during last two weeks, farmers are advised to apply irrigation to

standing crop.

� Utilizing monsoon rain, farmers of east Vidarbha region are advised to complete the transplanting of 20 to 22 days old rice seedlings.

� Maintain water level 5 cm by bunding of rice field in Konkan, Kolhapur division and 2-3 cm water level in other. Cleaning of bunds and proper drainage of water

should be done.

� Undertake hoeing and weeding in early sown kharif jowar, soyabean,

groundnut, cotton, bajra, maize to keep the crop weed free, after current spells

of rain in Vidarbha. Earthing up may be completed in 35 to 40 days old

groundnut.

� This is the proper time of planting of all fruit crops in Konkan and Kolhapur division.

� As prevailing weather is favourable, farmers of Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada are advised to complete planting of adsali sugarcane.

� In Vidarbha zone, for better growth of cotton boll and control of red leaf in cotton, spray Magnesium Sulphate 1 kg + DAP @ 4 kg/acre. Spray 2% Urea or

DAP at flowering stage on soyabean in East Vidarbha.

� Farmers in Bhal and Coastal Zone of Gujarat are advised to complete sowing of castor up to 25th August to protect the crop from the castor semi lopper. Carry

out transplanting of vegetables and plantation of horticulture crops.

� Farmers in South Gujarat Zone are advised to apply first spray of 2% DAP solution in greengram and blackgram at flowering stage and second spray after

15 day of first spray.

� Farmers in South Gujarat Heavy Rainfall Zone are advised to apply remaining half dose i.e. 40 kg Nitrogen by using Ammonium Sulphate.

� Farmers in North Gujarat Zone are advised to carry out transplanting of different horticultural crops and complete transplanting of vegetable crops. Also avoid the

water stagnate condition in low land areas.

� Farmers in South Saurashtra Zone of Gujarat are advised for sowing of pigeon pea between two rows of groundnut crop in relay cropping and for sowing of


castor. Also apply second dose of fertilizers @ 40 kg N/ha (88 kg urea/ha or 200

kg Ammonium Sulphate per ha) after vapsa condition in cotton crop.

� Due to receipt of sufficient rainfall in Middle Gujarat Zone, farmers are advised not to irrigate the crops, avoid spraying of insecticide/pesticides, avoid

application of fertilizers. Also prepare land for transplanting of Tobacco crop.

� Suitable varieties of the crops for sowing are mentioned in Annexure II. � Due to prevailing weather there is mild incidence of leaf cater pillar and spodoptera in soyabean in Sangli District, spray Quinolphos 25%@20 ml or

Chloropyriphos 220EC@20 ml in 10 litres water.

� Due to subdued rain, there may be incidence of leaf folder and blue beetle in rice in Konkan, for control of leaf folder spray Monocrotophos @ 12 ml /10 litres of

water and for control of blue beetle spray Monocrotophos 36WSC @ 14 ml or

Carbaryl 50 WP @ 20 g or Cypermethrin 25 EC @ 2.4 ml/10 litres of water or

dust 2% Methyl Parathion dust @ 20 kg/ha. Under prevailing weather there may

be incidence of army worm in rice in East Vidarbha, spray Cypermethrin 10%@

6 ml in 10 litres water or dust Methyl parathion dust 2%(20 kg/ha) in the

evening.

� Due to favourable weather, infestation of sap sucking pest (aphids, jassids, thrips) may increase in cotton in Central Vidarbha zone, if infestation exceeds

ETL (10 pests/ leaf) spray Dimethoate 30%@ 10 ml or Methyl Dimeton 25%

@8 ml in 10 litres water. Due to continues cloudy weather there may be

infestation of white fly, aphids and jassids in western Maharashtra scarcity zone,

spray Acitamiprid@4 g+ sticker in 10 litres water.

� Due to prevailing weather there may be incidence of downy mildew and powdery mildew in vegetables in Ratnagiri, Raigad and Thane district, spray

Dithane M-45 or Dithane Z-78 each @ 2.5 g/lit of water at an interval of 10 to

15 days.

� Due to cloudy weather there may be more infestation of thrips in onion in western Maharashtra scarcity zone, spray Carbosulfan@10 ml or Deltamethrin

@20 ml/ 10 litres water at 10 to 15 days interval.

� Due to light rain there may be incidence of shoot fly in jowar in Marathwada region, spray Quinolphos @20 ml in 10 litres water.

� There is infestation of mealy bug on branches, leaf and fruit of custard apple in Pune division, spray Imidacloprid or Thiamethoxam or Colathianidin @3 g/10

liter water.

� Due to cloudy weather condition, there is a chance of downey mildew in pearl millet and maize. Farmers in Middle Gujarat Zone are advised to spray

Carbendazim 3g/litre.

� There is a possibility of occurrence of hoppers and tip burn in mango in South Gujarat Heavy Rainfall Zone. Farmers are advised to spray Carbaryl (4gm/lt)

and wettable Sulphur (3gm/lit) respectively.

� To control leaf curl virus spread by thrips in chillies, farmers in South Gujarat Heavy Rainfall Zone are advised to spray the crop with Imedachlopride 2.8 ml

or Carbaryl 50 % WP 40 gm in 10 liter water.

� Stages of major crops are mentioned in Annexure I.

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� Protect animals by sheltering them in safer places in Gujarat. � Provide green fodder and cool water for drinking. Vaccination should be done to animals (cows, buffaloes and sheep) against foot and mouth disease and to sheep

against P.T.R. disease under the guidance of veterinary doctors. Protection

should be given to dairy / farm animals, sheep, goat and poultry birds from

heavy rains and cold winds. Do not allow to store water in animal shed. Pits in

cattle shed should be filled with soil.

CENTRAL INDIA[MADHYA PRADESH, CHHATTISGARH]

• Realised Rainfall: Sufficient rain occurred in most of the districts in Madhya

Pradesh and Chattisgarh

• Rainfall Forecast: Scattered rainfall is likely during next 24 hours over the region

and widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over thereafter.

• Warning: Isolated heavy rainfall would occur over East Madhya Pradesh and

Chhattisgarh after 48 hours.

• Advisory:

� As there was good rainfall in most of the districts in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh during last week, postpone irrigation to the crops. Arrange for

drainage facilities in the crop fields as isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall

would occur over Madhya Pradesh during next 48 hours.

� Due to excess rainfall occurred during last week, farmers in Jhabua Hill Zone are advised to prepare proper drainage system for drainage of excess water in

the field to escape the crops from water lodging condition. Runoff water

diverted to the recharging structure so rain water is store and the water lavel is

improved.

� Farmers in Jhabua Hill Zone of Madhya Pradesh are advised to carry out transplaning of fruit plants like mango, guava, anola, citrus, chickoo and

pomegranate etc.

� Farmers in Malwa Plateauand KymorePlateau and Satpura Hill Zones are advised for transplanting of tomato, brinjal and chilly.

� Farmers in Vindya Plateau, Central Narmada Valley and Gird Zone of Madhya Pradesh are advised for proper drainage of water in field of soyabean, arhar, til,

jowar and maize.

� Farmers in Central Narmada Valley Zone are advised to prepare nursery for cabbage and cauliflower and transplant of fruit plants i.e. Papaya, Guava and

Mango.

� In Chattisgarh Plain Zone, farmers are advised to undertake biasi operation of direct seeded rice wherever sufficient moisture is available. After biasi operation

SaghanChalai should be done at the earliest.

� Due to sufficient rainfall in Bastar Plateau Zone of Chattisgarh, oilseed and pulses crops like urad, horsegram (Kulthi), niger (ramtil), moong (greengram)

and urad (blackgram) crops may be sown in upland marhan situation.


� Due to prevailing weather, thrips, insects, blast disease and Brown spot disease are affecting the rice crop in Dantewara and Bijapur district of Chattisgarh,

spray Profenophos or Dimethoate 2:1 mls in one litre of water for thrips, Beam

or Baan1 gms./ litre of water for blast and Furadon, Chlorpyriphos or

Carbofuran 3 G 10-12 Kg./ acre for brown spot.

� Due to prevailing weather in Narayanpur and Bastar district of Chattisgarh, it is being observed that attack of insect-pests and diseases is enhanced. In this

particular situation, farmers shouldn’t use the fertilizers and bunds should be

properly cleaned. The control measures should be adopted accordingly.

� Due to water logging in plant nursery beds in Malwa Plateau Zone of Madhya Pradesh, fungal attack in plant nurseries may be there, so avoid water logging by

providing drainage and if attack is there apply fungicide.

� Weather is congenial for blue beetle on soyabean in Madhya Pradesh, spray Prophenophos@ 2 litre per ha or Monocrotophos 1.5 litre per ha.

� Weather is congenial for semi lopper in the soybean crop in Bundelkhand Zone of Madhya Pradesh, farmers are advised to spray Quinolphos 25 E.C. @ 2.0 ml

per litre of water. Also there is possibility of attack of yellow mosaic in soybean,

urd, moong crops; If found, spray of Methyl dameton 2.0 ml. orEmedachloprid

1/2 ml. perlitre of water for their control.

� Weather is congenial for attack of girdle beetle in Central Narmada Valley Zone in soybean of Madhya Pradesh, spray Trizophos 0.75 lit/ha or Quinolphos

0.75lit/ha

� Spray chemicals after spells of rain in the region. � Stages of major crops are mentioned in Annexure I.

• Animal Husbandry & Poultry

� Provide the animal’swith clean water, balance and nutrients rich food. etc. in Malwa Plateau Zone of Madhya Pradesh. Also vaccination in Goats and other

cattle’s. Ensure vaccination to protect animals from infections/diseases like

Black Quarter and FMD etc.

� Humid weather condition is prevailed in Kymore Plateau and Satpura Hill Zone hence keep cattle’s in dry and clean place. Also create neem leaves smoke in

night to save them from mosquitoes and bees. Arrange for vaccination for Foot

and Mouth disease, and anthrax. Use potassium permanganate @ 5 ml per liter

of water for infected animals.

� In Budelkhand Zone of Madhya Pradesh, four to five hours bulb light should be provided in the poultry houses during night on account of likelihood of clouds

and shortened photoperiod in this week. Farmers are advised to prevent the goat

form wetting in rain and also do the vaccination against P.P.R to Goats. Also use

new liter material in the poultry houses like saw dust, wheat straw to avoid

excessive moisture. Provide de-worming to the calf of dairy animals and keep

on dry and clean shade.

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Annexure I Major Crops

EAST INDIA [JHARKHAND, BIHAR, ORISSA, WEST BENGAL &SIKKIM]

� Sugarcane (early vegetative / vegetative), rice, kharif maize, kharif arhar, sesame, sorghum, jowar, lobia for green fodder, mishrikand (sowing / vegetative), onion,

radish (sowing), cauliflower and fruit trees (transplanting) in Bihar.

� Sugarcane (early vegetative / vegetative), papaya (transplanting), turmeric, ginger, elephant foot yam (vegetative / tuber development stage), rice (transplanting/

vegetative), rainy season vegetables like bhindi, bean, tomato, french bean,

cauliflower, cabbage etc. (vegetative / flowering / fruiting), maize, pigeon pea, urd,

moong bean, groundnut( vegetative) and sweet potato (transplanting / vegetative)in

Jharkhand.

� Arhar and maize (sowing / early vegetative), papaya, marigold, tuberose (planting), cowpea (sowing / early vegetative), kharif vegetables (sowing / vegetative),

sugarcane (vegetative), kharif rice (transplanting / tillering), groundnut (sowing /

early vegetative), chrysanthemum, ragi (sowing / vegetative), turmeric and ginger

(planting / early vegetative), yam (sowing), sesamum, green gram, black gram, niger

(sowing / early vegetative), mango, banana, lemon, cashew nut, marigold(planting)

in Orissa.

� Aman rice (transplanting / tillering), tomato, cauliflower (nursery preparation /

transplanting), aus rice (tillering), kharif maize (sowing / tillering), jute (vegetative /

harvesting), mango, coconut, guava, banana (planting) and kharif vegetables

(sowing / planting / vegetative / fruiting) in West Bengal.

� Large cardamom (capsule formation / transplanting of suckers from nursery/grain maturity;), kharif vegetables (harvesting), orange (fruiting.), ginger (germination /

early vegetative), rice (early tillering), maize (harvesting), seed potato (tuberization)

in Sikkim.

NORTHEAST INDIA [ARUNACHAL PRADESH, NMM&T, ASSAM, MEGHALAYA]

• Sugarcane (active vegetative), ahu rice (flowering / grain formation / ripening), sali rice (transplanting / tillering), olitorius jute (maturity / harvesting / retting),

Capsularis jute, (harvesting / retting / fibre extraction), maize (vegetative), sesame,

groundnut (early vegetative / vegetative), arhar, pigeon pea, raddish, cauliflower and

brinjal (early variety) (sowing / early vegetative) and jute (for seed production)

(early vegetative), ginger / turmeric (vegetative), black / green gram (sowing /

vegetative), banana (planting), cowpea (sowing / vegetative) and khasi mandarin

(sowing / vegetative) in Assam.

• Rice (nursery preparation / transplanting / tillering), tuber crops (vegetative), soyabean and groundnut (vegetative) and maize (tasseling / silking /cob formation /

maturity / harvesting) in Arunachal Pradesh.

• Soyabean (flowering / pod formation), groundnut (pod formation), kharif rice (transplanting / tillering), ginger and turmeric (vegetative / rhizome formation), early

cauliflower (transplanting), tomato (nursery raising), lemon (fruiting / harvesting) in

Manipur.


• Ahu rice (panicle initiation / flowering / grain filling), arhar (sowing / vegetative),

vegetables (vegetative / flowering / fruiting / maturity), sali rice (transplanting /

tillering), early cauliflower and cabbage (transplanting / vegetative), ginger and

turmeric (rhizome formation), Khasi mandarin (flowering / fruiting), banana

(vegetative) in Meghalaya.

• Rice (transplanting / tillering), kharif maize (tasseling / silking / cob formation), groundnut (flowering), soyabean (vegetative / flowering), okra (sowing /

vegetative), ginger and turmeric (planting / vegetative), khasi mandarin (new

planting / vegetative / fruiting), French Bean, rice bean, urd and moong bean

(vegetative / flowering / pod formation), banana (vegetative / fruiting), cucurbits

(sowing / vegetative) in Mizoram.

• Soyabean (flowering), groundnut, green gram and black gram (sowing / vegetative), rice (transplanting), maize (cob formation / maturity), okra (flowering / fruiting),

lowland rice (transplanting), banana (fruiting), colocasia (flowering) and papaya

(transplanting) in Nagaland.

• Aus or kharif rice (panicle initiation / flowering / grain formation), aman rice

(transplanting / early tillering), upland / jhum rice (flowering / milk), cucurbits and

other vegetables (flowering / fruiting), maize (tasseling / silking / cob formation) and

sesame (vegetative / flowering / pod formation) in Tripura.

NORTHWEST INDIA [JAMMU & KASHMIR, HIMACHAL PRADESH,

UTTARAKHAND, PUNJAB, HARYANA, DELHI, UTTAR PRADESH & RAJASTHAN]

• Tomato, chilli, paddy (transplanting/early vegetative), brinjal & cucurbits crops (flowering/fruiting), lentil (pod formation), maize, hybrid cluster bean, baby corn,

Pigeon pea (sowing/ vegetative), green gram and black gram, cotton (sowing),

Sugarcane(sowing) in Delhi.

• Vegetables (flowering / fruiting / harvesting), garlic, ginger (planting), bhindi, (transplanting), cucurbits (transplanting), Khira, summer squash, bitter gourd, tur,

brinjal, Shimla mirch, and tomato (transplanting), Apple (fruit

development/maturity), pomegranate (fruit development), ginger, arbi, amaranthus,

turmeric, rice, maize (sowing/transplanting) in Himachal Pradesh.

• Berseem (vegetative), cucurbits (vegetative / flowering/maturity), onion (seed bed preparation), capsicum, chilli, brinjal (nursery sowing / transplanting), raddish,

carrot, turnip, cauliflower, cabbage, broccoli (sowing / transplanting), kharif fodder

viz. maize, jowar, bajra, cowpea (growth / harvesting), early sown maize (initiation

of tassel emergence / grain development), maize (vegetative / silking), kharif pulses,

moong, mash (flowering / pod development), rice (tillering/panicle initiation),

Kharif oilseed like groundnut, sunflower, summer brassica etc. ( vegetative/

flowering / seed development), orchards (apple-fruit development and pear –

maturity) in Jammu & Kashmir.

• Chilli, capsicum (transplanting), tomato (vegetative/maturity/harvesting) and lahi (flowering / fruiting), sugarcane (planting), rice (tillering/ panicle initiation), litchi,

loquat, peach, citrus (flowering / fruiting), mango (early varieties) (flowering),

maize (cob formation), foxtail millet, okra, bottle gourd, bitter gourd, ginger,

India 103

turmeric, soyabean (sowing / planting), sorghum, pigeon pea, urd and pearl

millets(sowing) in Uttarakhand.

• Spring sugarcane (sprouting), berseem (vegetative), vegetables(fruiting), sugarcane

(germination/tillering), pulses (seedlings), cotton (ball initiation), okra

(sowing/vegetative), rice (sowing/transplanting), maize (knee height stage) in

Punjab.

• Sugarcane (spring season) (planting/emergence/early vegetative), barseem (vegetative), pulses, moong, mash, pigeon pea (sowing), rice (transplanting/tillering)

in Haryana.

• Rice (Transplanting), winter sugarcane (vegetative growth / formative), summer sugarcane (initial growth / formative stage), cucurbits like gourd, bittle gourd,

cucumber, etc. and another vegetables like lady’s finger, tomato, brinjal, chilli etc.

(sowing / flowering/fruiting), black gram, baby corn/ maize / fodder maize,

vegetables (vegetative/flowering/fruiting), groundnut, jowar, bajra, til, moong, urd,

moong, lobia (early vegetative), arhar (sowing /early vegetative), tomato, brinjal,

cabbage (sowing) in Uttar Pradesh.

• Rice (nursery sowing/transplanting), narma cotton, desi cotton (flowering / boll formation in Sriganganagar), sweet potato(sowing), pearl millet, sorghum, maize,

soybean, chilli, moong, cowpea, urd, sorghum and cluster bean (sowing) in

Rajasthan.

SOUTH INDIA [TN, AP, KERALA, KARNATAKA, LAKSHADWEEP, ANDAMAN &

NICOBAR ISLANDS]

• Kuruvai rice (panicle initiation/flowering), cotton (vegetative to flowering), vegetables (nursery / transplanting/ fruiting), sugarcane (vegetative/ grand

growth/maturity), groundnut (vegetative/ flowering / peg formation/ pod

development/maturity), maize (vegetative/flowering/harvest/), sorghum (vegetative),

black gram (flowering/ harvest), green gram (harvest) in Tamil Nadu.

• Sugarcane (ratooning/vegetative), cotton (sowing / vegetative), hybrid jowar, maize, ragi, sugarcane, sunflower, groundnut, red gram and horticulture crops (vegetative)

in Karnataka. Early sown crops are at early vegetative stage.

• Maize (Sowing to seedling stage), jowar, cotton (vegetative), sugarcane and pulse crops like green gram (vegetative), red gram(vegetative), rice (nursery /

transplanting stage), groundnut (Early sown- pod initiation & development

stage/Late sown crop - flowering stage/ vegetative), in Andhra Pradesh.

• Virippu rice (tillering/panicle initiation/flowering) and black pepper (berry

development), ginger (vegetative), turmeric and vegetable crops (flowering to

harvesting stage) Mundakan rice (sowing/transplanting) in Kerala.

WEST INDIA [GOA, MAHARASHTRA, GUJARAT]

• Sugarcane (new adsali - planting / old adsali - grand growth), sugarcane (pre-seasonal) (vegetative), sugarcane (suru) (early vegetative), Kharif rice (early

tillering in Konkan, Kolhapur, Pune, Nashik Division and transplanting in East

Vidarbha), jowar (vegetative ), soyabean (flowering/ pod formation in Kolhapur

division and branching/ flowering in other division), groundnut ( vegetative /


flowering ), cotton (vegetative), red gram (early vegetative) and green gram

(flowering / pod formation).

• Kharif bajra (vegetative), vegetables (transplanting / vegetative), sugarcane

(vegetative), groundnut (vegetative / flowering / pegging), kharif pulses (sowing /

germination / vegetative), cotton (vegetative / flowering), rice (seedling /

transplanting) in Gujarat.

CENTRAL INDIA[M.P., CHHATTISGARH]

• Sugarcane (vegetative), vegetables (flowering and fruiting), moong, urad, maize, soybean, sesame, groundnut, jowar groundnut, pigeon pea, kharif onion, brinjal,

tomato and chillietc.(sowing), rice (transplanting) in Madhya Pradesh.

• Rice (seedling / tillering), sugarcane (planting), maize (flowering), groundnut, arhar, green gram and sesame (sowing), ginger, turmeric, papaya, mango and guava

(planting) in Chhattisgarh.

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Annexure II List of Varieties

Orissa

Arhar: Early duration- Prabhat, Upas-120, ICPL-86012, ICPL-87.

Medium duration - Asha, Visakha, DA-11, C-11 etc.

Papaya: Honey Dew, Kurg Honey Dew, Co-1, Co-2, Pusa Delicious, Pusa Majestic, Pusa

Dwarf and Pusa Giant.

Cow pea: Bush type – PusaPhalguni, PusaKomal, SEB-2, PusaBarsati.

Runner type – American Long and Banarasi Long.

Other improved varieties – Russian Giant, EC-4316, NP-3, C-152, UPC-286,

UPC-5286 and IGFI-450.

Okra: Improved high yielding varieties – UtkalGourav, ArkaAnamika, Uphar,

ParvaniKranti.

Hybrid varieties – Varsa, Vijay, Vishal, Tara, Adhunik, Atyadhunik and Supriya.

Bitter gourd: PusaDomousumi, Coimbatore Long Green and ArkaHarit.

Ridge gourd: PusaNajdar, Jaypur Long and any local variety.

Cluster bean: PusaNaubahar.

Ginger: Suprava, Suruchi, Surabhi.

Turmeric: Roma, Surama, Rang, Rashmi etc.

Maize: Navjot, Shakti, Decan-107, Decan-109.

Rice: Extra early – Kaling-3.

Early – Khandagiri, Bandana, Pathara, Parijat, Annada, Jogesh, Siddant.

Medium – Pratikshya, Manaswini, Tapaswini MAS, Konark, Kharavela, Naveen,

Abhisek, Lalat, MAS MTU-1001, MTU-1010, Konark, Gajapati, Surendra, Lalat.

Late - CR-1009, CR-1018, Swarna (MTU-7029), Indravati, Mahanadi, Puja,

Ramachandi, Kanchana, Sarala, Lunishree, Ranidhan, Mrinalini, RGL-2837,

Ketakijoha, Moti, Padmini, Kanchana, Mahanadi, Jagabandhu.

Fine - CR-1014, BPT-5204.

Flash flood areas - Swarna Sub-1.

Yam: Shreekirti, Shreerupa, Hatikhoj, Shreeshilpi; small yam – Shreelata, Shreekala.

White yam: Shreesubhra, Shreepriya, Shreedhanya.

Groundnut: Ak-12-24, TG-3, TG- 38, TMV 2, ICGS -11, JL-24 and Smruti for oil.

Ragi: Divyasingh, AKP-2, AKP-3, AKP-7, Godavari, Neelachal, Bhairavi, Shubhra and

Chilika.

Chrysanthemum: Yellow - Chandrama, Kiku, Biory, Super Giant and Evening Star.

White - Snow Ball, Inoscence and Premier.

Red - Brave, Rustic, Alfred and Wilson.

Sesamum: Kanaka, Kalika, Vinayak, Uma, Prachi, Tilottama, Nilima.

Green gram: K-851, PDM-11, PDM-54, OUM-11-5.


Black gram: T-9, Pant U-11, Pant U-19, Pant U-30.

Niger: Deomali, Niger-1.

Cashew nut: BPP-4, Bhubaneswar-1, VRI-2, Hybrid 2-17.

Banana: Dwarf Cavendis, Robusta, G-9, Tissue cultured Banana – Hampa, Patakpura,

Bantal and Kabuli.

Mango: Baiganpalli, Totapuri, Bombay green, Suvarnarekha, Neelam, Himsagar, Langra,

Dusheri, Amrapalli, Mallika, Ratna, Sindhu, Alphanso, Keshar etc.

Lemon: Ureka, Lisbon, Bhillafranka of lemon and Kagazilembu, Mexican lime, Sarbati lime

and Tahita of lime.

Marigold: Giant Ball, African Yellow, Giant Ball African Orange, Early Yellow, Early

Orange, Serakola, Africut, Sun Giant, Crown Of Gold, Spun Gold and Cuprid Yellow.

West Bengal

Aman rice: Upland situation (110-120 days): Rasi, Khitish, Bhupen, CST-7-1, PNR-519, Kunti, Ajaya,

CSR-6.

Shallow low land (130-140 days): ManasSarovar, MTU-7029 (SwarnaMasuri), MTU-1001,

MTU-1010, Naveen, IET-5656.

Semi deep water (150-160 days): Jogen, Sabita, Purnendu, Amulya, CR-1009, CR-1018,

Sarala.

Banana: Mortoman, Chapa, Kathali, Singapuri.

Jharkhand

Turmeric: RajendraSona.

Ginger: Burdwan and Nadia.

Elephant foot yam: Gajendra.

Maize: Birsa-1, Birsa Vikas-1, Suhan-1, Suwan Composite 1 (100 days) and hybrid variety

– HQPM 1 (100 days), composite variety – BirsaMakka 1 (80-85 days) and hybrid variety -

Kanchan (80-85 days), BirsaVikashMakka 2 (70-80 Days).

Rice: Swarna (MTU 7029), Rajshree, BPT 5204 (SambhaMahsuri), Birsamati and for hybrid

rice – Proagro or Arize 6444; for medium land rice – IR 36, 64, Lalat, Naveen, Sahbhagi,

BR 10, Kanak, RajendraDhan 202, Sugandha, BirsaVikashSugandhDhan 2,

BirsaVikashDhan 203; Birsamati, early duration varieties – Vandana, Lalat, BirsaDhan 108,

109, 110.

Horse gram: Birsa Kulthi-1 (95 days), G.H.G.-20 (75 days).

Urd: T 9, Pant U 19, 30, 35 and Birsa Urd 1.

Moong bean: Pusa Vishal, SML 668, K 885, PS 16, Pant Moong 2 and PDM 11.

Pigeon pea: BirsaArhar (210 days), Bahar (240 days) and ICPH 2671 (210 days).

Finger millet: Birsa Marua 2, A 404 and GPU 45, 47.

Groundnut: AK12-24, BirsaMoongfali 1,2, 3 and bold type – Birsa Bold (BAU 13).

Sweet Potato: Birsa Sakarkand-1 and Sri Bhadra.

Sesame: KankeSafed and Krishna.

Horse Gram: Birsa Kulthi-1 (95 days), G.H.G.-20.

India 107

Bihar

Rice: Mansuri, RajendraMansuri, NataMansuri, RajendraSweta, Santosh, Rajshree, Satyam,

Pankaj, Swarna (MTU 7029), Sita, Kank and IR-36.

Short duration varieties: Pusa 2-21, IR-36, Saket-4, Prabhat and photosensitive tall local

varieties like Katarni, Kamini, Sugandha, TulsiMunjari.

Kharifmaize: Shaktiman 2, Shaktiman 3, Shaktiman 4 and Deoki.

Scented rice: Sugandha, Kamani, RajendraSuwasani and RajendraKasturi.

Mishrikand: RajendraMisrikand 1.

Onion: N-53, Agrifound Dark Red and Baswant 780.

Tomato: DBRT-2, ArkaVikash, PusaGaurav, Labonita, Marglov, Punjab Kesri, Sweet 72,

Pant Bahar and hybrid varieties such as Vaishali, Rupali, Navin, Ratna, ARTH-3.

Brinjal: Rajendra Baigan-2, Rajendra Annapurna, Pant Baigan, PusaAnmol, Pusa Purple

Long, ArkaNavneet, Pusa Hybrid-5.

Radish: PusaChetki, PusaDeshi, PusaHimani, PusaReshmi, JapaniSafed, ArkaNishant.

Cauliflower: Kuwari, Patna Early, PusaKatki, PusaDipali, HajipurAgaat.

Pointed gourd:RajendraParwal 1, RajendraParwal 2, F.P. 1, F.P. 3.

Assam

Sali rice: Long duration: Monohar Sali, Andrew Sali, Gitesh.

Short duration: Luit, Kapili, Kolong, Dishang.

Others: Jalashree, Jalkuwari, Plaban.

Arhar: T-21.

Early cauliflower: Early Kunwari, Pusa Deepali, Pusa Katki.

Green gram: T-44, Kopergaon, K-851, ML-56, ML-131.

Black gram: SB 121 (Saonia Mah), T-9, T-27, Pant U-19, T-122, KU 301, USJD 113, T 9,

T27.

Radish: Pusa Desi, Pusa Himani, Pusa Chetki.

Cowpea: RC 19, TVX-944-02E.

Dolichos Bean : Pusa Early Profile and SD-18.

Meghalaya

Arhar: T-21.

Manipur

Rice: RC Maniphou 7.

Delhi

Hybrid cluster bean: Pusa Komal, Pusa Sukamol,

Baby corn: HM-4.

Sugarcane: Karan-1, Karan-2, Co-64, and Co-1496.

Late varieties of Cotton: H-777, H-974, H-1098.

Pigeonpea - Pusa 2001, Pusa991, Pusa992, Paras manak, UPAS 120.

Soybean: Pusa-9712, Pusa-9814, and Pusa-16.


Fodder Sorghum: Pusa chari-9, Pusa chari-6.

Himachal Pradesh

Cauliflower: Sweta,Madhuri

Capsicum green: California wonder, Mahabharat, Capsicum yellow : US 616

Cucumber: Kiyan

Summer squash: hybrid green

Lettuce: Iceberg

Brinjal : Arka Nidhi, PPC

Ageti bhindi : P-8, Prabhini kranti, Arka anamika

Frenchbean : Contender

Pepper : Surjmukhi

Brocolli: Palam Samridhi

Rajmash : Triloki,Jwala,baspa Kailash

Jammu & Kashmir

Rice : Jaya, RR-8585, IET-1410, Ratna,PC-19, GS-2, mansar, trikuta, C-5 and C-8

Direct sowing : Jaya, RR-8585, PC-19, IET-1410 and Ratna, Basmati-370, Sanwal Basmati,

Local Basmati (Ranbir)

Brinjal : PPL, PPC & PPR

Raddish: Japanese white

Carrot: . Nantes and Pusa Yamdagini

Turnip : Purple Top White Globe

Chillies : NP-46A, Pusa jawala

Maize : var.GS-2, mansard, trikuta, C-5 and C-8, GS-2, Super composite, Mansar, C-6, C-8

and Local

Pulses: Mash: Pant U-19, Moong: PDM-54, ML-131 and ML-818.

Groundnut: Punjab no.1, M-13 and JL-24,

Bajra:WCC-75, ICMS-7703 and Hybrid M.H.B-110,

Til: Punjab Til-1.

Cabbage: GA, POI

Punjab

Paddy : Pusa Basmati 1, Pusa 1121, Punjab Basmati 2, Punjab Mehak and Super Basmati

during these days and Basmati 370 and Basmati 386, PAU 201, PR 120, PR 118, PR 116,

PR 114, PR 113, PR 111, PR 115 etc.

Okra : Punjab 7 / Punjab 8

Radish : Punjab Ageti, Pusa Chetk

Haryana

Baisakhi Mung: K851 and Type 44 and Muskan

Pigeon pea: UPAS 120, T-21.

India 109

Uttar Pradesh

Arhar : T-7, Amar, Bahar, Narendra Arhar-1, Azad, Malaviya -13, Pusa-9.

Maize : Tarun, Navin, Kanchan,Sweta, Navjyoti, Ganga-1 and 2, Duccan-107.

Moong : Pant Moong-1, Pant Moong-2, Pant Moong-3, Pant Moong-4, P.D.M.-11,

P.D.M.-54, Narendra Moong-1, Samrat, K.M.-2241, K.M.-1995.

Vegetables: Pumpkin: Azad pumpkin-1, Narendra pumpkin-1,

Gourd: Kalyanpur Lambi Hari, Pusa Meghdoot, Taroi- Kalyanpur Chikni, Pusa Chikni,

Bitter gourd: Baramasi, Narendra Baramasi,

Cucumber – Kalyanpur Hara

Lady’s finger – Azad Bhindi-1,2, Parmani, Kranti, Pusa Sawani, Vaishali, Selection-1

Brinjal : Azad-1 type-3, Pusa purple log, Azad Baingan gol, Kranti

Onion : N-53, AG found Dark Red, Arka Kalyan.

Lobia: Improved varieties T & 5269, T&2, UPC & 4200, Pusa Komal, 5269

Lobia: for green fodder : Russian jaint, U.P.C.-5286, Bundel Lobia-1, B.P.C.-9202.

Mango: early var.: Bambai Hara, Gopal Bhog, Medium var.:Dabhahari, Langada, Lucknow

Safeda, late var.: Chouda, Amrapali, Mallika, Swarn Rekha.

Banana: Dwarf Kovindis, Basrai Dwarf, for vegetables purpose: Hari chhal.

Pappaya: Pusa Delecius, Pusa Mejestry, Pusa Dwarf, Pusa joint, C.O.-1,2,3.

Amrud: Lucknow-49, Alahabadi Safeda, Banarasi Surkh, Chittidar, Apil colour,

Arkamrudula

Awala: Chakaiya, Krushna, Kanchan, Narendra Awala-6,7, Lakshmi-52

Lemon: Kagji gol, Hybrid-2

Uttarakhand

Maize : Ganga-2, Ganga-7, African Tall, Ganga-5, Pusa Hybrid-1, Pusa Hybrid-2 and

Composite varieties like Gaurav, Amar or Surya, Him, Ganga Makka-9, Ganga Makka-11

Lobia : Russian Joint, EC-4216, UPC-5286 etc.

Okra : VL Bhindi-1

Soyabean : Brag, PK-262, VL Soya-2, VL Soya 21, VL Soya-47, pant soya-1042, 1092 and

PRS-1

Gahat :VLG-1

Ugal : VL-7, PRB-1

Urd : Pant Urd-19, Pant Urd-30. Pant Urd-31 or Pant Urd-35

Cabbage: GA, POI

Rajasthan Rice : JC152(90 to 95 days), JC5(100 to 110 days), JC10(100 to 120 days), RC9(80 to 85

days), RC19(60 days), Ratan BK79, Jay Basmati 370] Kasturi(IET8580)] Taravari Basmati,

Pusa Sugand 4 & 5, Pusa improved Basmati-1.

Pearl millet: Pusa 334, Pusa 383, HHB 67, HHB 94, Raj 171, ICMH 356, ICTP 8201 and

RHB 121, H.H.B.-67(I), I.C.T.P.-8203, H.H.B.-60, Raj.- 171, G.H.B.-538, R.H.B.-90 and

I.C.M.H.-356, Raj 171, H.H.B. 67, Pusa 334, Pusa 383, HHB 67, HHB 94, Raj 171, ICMH

356, ICTP 8201, RHB 121 MH-169, RHB 90, RHB121, CZP 9802, ICMH356, Pusa-334,

HHB-67, HHB-94.


Moong : K-851(60 to 65 days), Pusa Baishaki(60 to 80 days), RMG62(60 to 65 days)

ML131, 267, Ganga-1(Jamunothri), Ganga-8 (Gangothri), SML668, SUM-2, K-851, ,

ML131, Pusa 267,

Sorghum: Improved varieties/hybrids - CSV 15, CSH 14, CSH 16,CSH 5-6,9,SPV 245,

346, 475, 96, CSV 15, SSG-59-3 and MP-Chari, CSV-15, CSV-17, Pratap Jowar-1430 and

green fodder, varieties are Rajasthan Chari-1, Rajasthan Chari-2, SPV-837, and MP-Chari.

Cluster been: Improved varieties - RGC 936, RGC 986, RGC 1002, RGC 1003, RGC 1017,

and HG 365.

Sesamum: Improved varieties - Pratap, TC 25, RT 46, RT 54, RT 103, RT 125 and Tt 13.

Ground nut: Improved varieties - GG 2, GG 7, HNG 10, Prakash and M 13.

Green gram: Improved varieties - K 851, RMG 62, RMG 268 and Ganga

Bajra: R.H.B-121, H.H.B.-67(I), I.C.T.P.-8203, H.H.B.-60, Raj.- 171, G.H.B.-538, R.H.B.-

90 and I.C.M.H.-356

Guar: HG 75, RGC 936, RGC 197, RGC 966, RGC 1017, RGC 1002 and RGC 1003 a

Moth bean: RMO-40, RMO-435, RMO-225, RMO 257, RMO 423

Cowpea : FS-68, RC-19 and 101

Maize: Sagar Ganga white 2, Sagar Ganga 5, Pratap maize 2, 5, PEHM-2 and Mahi

Kanchan

Arhar: Prabhat, Gwalior-3, UPAS 120, ICPL 87, 151, ICPH-8.

Soyabean: MACS 58, 450, JS 80-21 335, 93-0, PS16, PK472, NRC-12, Pratap soya 2,

RKS24.

Groundnut : RSB 87, RS 138, JL 24, RG 14,

Cowpea: C-152, JC-5, JC-10, C-52, RS-9, FS-68, RC-19, RC-101 and RCP-27

Tomato: Pusa Ruby, Pusa early dwarf, Roma

Brinjal: Pusa long, Meghdoot, ArkaBahar, Pusa summer and prolific round

Fodder grass : Desmodium, Muslai, Gold, Penicum Koleratum.

Cucumber: Balam, PusaSahyog, Radish : Pusa Chetki, Cauliflower : Improved Japanese,

Pusa hybrid-2 & Himjyoti

Guava: Allahabad safeda and Lucknow 49, Pomegrante: Ganesh, Jhalore and Seedless,

Orange: Nagpur and Kinnoo, Lime: Kagzi and Baramasi, Aonla: Banarshi, Krishana,

Kanchan, Chakaiya, NA7, NA9 and NA10, Ber: Sonor,Thornless, Katha Alwar, Gola,and

Seb

Sweet potato: Pusa Safed, Pusa Lal, Pusa Sunhari & L-20

Ashwaghandha: Ashwaghandha-20 and Ashwaghandha-134

Andhra Pradesh Blackgram: LBG-20, LBG-623, T-9, Madira-307 and LBG-752

Greengram: LGG-407, LGG-430, LGG-460 warangal-2

Redgram: LRG-30, LRG-38, LRG-41, ICPL-8863, ICPL-87117

Groundnut: TAG-24, JL-24, K-6, K-9, Narayani, ICGV-91114

Seasame: Gauri, Madhavi,YLN-11,YLH-17,YLH-66

Paddy: MTU-7029 (Swarna),MTU-2067 (Chaitanya), MTU-2077, Krishnaveni, BPT-5204

(sambamashuri), BPT-1768(Bapatlasannalu), MTU-1061 (Indra), NLR-T-145

(Swarnamukhi), NLR-34449 (Nelluri mashuri), NLR-9674 (kothamolakolukulu), NLR-

India 111

28523 (Sriranga), NLR-3BPT-5204 (sambamashuri), Pushkala(RGL-2624), IR-64 and

MTU-9993,MTO-1010, MTU-1001, Vasundhara, Swarna and Srikakulam sannalu

Karnataka Sugarcane : CO-419 , CO-62175,& CO-7804

Sunflower : Modern, KBSH-1,41,42,&44

Field bean : HA-3,4

Green gram : Selection – 4, BGS-9

Black gram : TAU – 1, DU – 1, T-9

Soybean : JS - 335

Jowar : DSV – 2

Rubber: RRIM-600 ,RRII 105, GT-1

Paddy: Mangala, Mukthi, KMP-105

Ragi: GPU-26,28,45 &48, HR-911, Indaf-5,9 PR-205

Redgram: TTB-7, BRG-1, 2, ICP-7035 , CPI-7035

Maize: Ganga-11, Deccan-103, NAC-1137, NAH-1137

Tur Var,: (Medium to Long Duration)PT-221,GS-1,ICP-8863(Maruti),ICPL-

87119(Asha)WRP-1 &

Short Duration Var: like ICPL-87(Pragati), Selection-31(Zone 2 irrigated areas ),GCS-11-39

(Zone-2)

Pigeon pea: PT-221, GS-1, ICP-8863 (Maruti),ICPL-87119 (Asha)WRP-1,TS-3-R ICPL-

87(Pragati), GCS-11-39 (Zone-2)

Gujarat Cluster bean: G.Guar-2.

Caster: GAUCH-1, GCH-2, GCH-4, GCH-5, 6 or 7.

Pegion pea: BDN-2, Viashali, ICPL-87, Gujarat-100.

Sesame: GT-1 or GT-2.

Maharashtra Red gram: ICPL-87, Vipulla, BSMR-853, 736 for Madhya Maharashtra, ICPL-87119

(Asha), C-11 for Vidarbha.

Adsali Sugarcane: CO-86032 (Neera), COM-88121, COM-0265 (Phule-265).

Banana: Basrai, Shrimanti and Gradnine.

Mrug Banana: Basrai, Shrimanti, Gradnine.

Madhya Pradesh Maize- JM 12, JVM 421, JM 13, JM 216; Hybrid varieties: HPQM-1, Payonior 30R77,

Sinzenta NK 30, Monsento Allrounder, Bioseed 9681;

Soybean: JS 9560 (85 days), JS 9305 (90-95 days), JS 335 (110 days);

Urd: JU 86, JU 3, T- 9 etc

Moong: K851, Jowar moong-721, Pant moong-4, TJM-3,

Urd:Oant U-30, RBU-38, Jowar Urd-3, RJU-88.

Arhar: Laxmi, Pragti, Asha, Jagrati, JKM-7 and JKM-189

Mango: Kesar, Aamrapali, Dasahri, Mallika, Guava: seedless, Sardar, Allahabadi safeda,

Amla:chakaiya, NA 3, NA 7, Pomegranet: Ganesh, Mradula.


Short duration varieties for Jabalpur Paddy-JR-201, Poornima, JRH-5, JRH-8 (Hybrid), IR-36, JR-503SV-1

Jowar-JJ-741, JJ-938, JJ-1022, JJ-1041 and CSV-15

Arhar-Laxmi, Pragti, Asha, Jagrati, JKM-7 and JKM-189

Soybean-JS-95-60, JS-93-05, JS-97-52, JS-80-21, JS-335, NRC-37

Moong-Pusa Vishal, K-851, JN-721, Jawahar-99-37, HUM-1, HUM-2, JM-98-90, PDM-11

Urd-JU-2, JU-3, JU-86, T-9, JCB-623, LGB-884 and TAU-1

Chattisgarh Paddy: MTU-1001, MTU-1010, IR-64, IR-36, Poornima, Annada, Mahamaya,

Karma,Mahsuri, Bamleshwari, Swarna

Soyabean: JS 335, Indira Soya-09, JS 93-05.

India 113

Annexure III Contour maps for the week ending 17.08.2011

Actual Mean Maximum temperature ranged

between 36 to 400C over some parts of

Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Raylaseema,

Tamil Nadu, 32 to 360C over most parts of

Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, some parts of

Punjab, West Rajasthan, West Uttar

Pradesh, Assam, Chattisgarh, Orissa, North

& South Interior Karnataka, Kerala,

Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, 24 to

280C over some parts of Jammu &

Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, East

Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim,

Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, 20 to 24 0C

over some parts of Jammu & Kashmir,

Himachal Pradesh, 28 to 320C over

remaining parts of the country.

Actual Mean Maximum temperature

anomaly between 2 to 40C over most parts

of Andhra Pradesh, some parts of North &

South Interior Karnataka, Madhya

Maharashtra, Marathwada, -2 to 00C over

most parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal

Pradesh, Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh,

Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim,

Assam, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, West

Madhya Pradesh, some parts of

Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh,

Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland,

East Madhya Pradesh, Madhya

Maharashtra, Chattisgarh, Orissa, Gujarat,

Saurashtra & Kutch, Andaman & Nicobar

Islands, -4 to -20C over most parts of

Haryana, Delhi, some parts of Jammu &

Kashmir, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand,

West Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gangetic

West Bengal, Chattisgarh, West Madhya

Pradesh, Gujarat, Saurashtra & Kutch, -6 to

-40C some parts of Punjab, Haryana, West

Uttar Pradesh, 0 to 20C over remaining

parts of the country.


Actual Mean Minimum Temperature

ranged between 20 to 240C over most parts

of Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh,

Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, some parts

of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh,

Uttarakhand, Punjab, Rajasthan, East Uttar

Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Orissa, Telangana,

Raylaseema, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, 16 to

200C Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal

Pradesh, 24 o 280C over remaining parts of

the Country..

Minimum Temperature anomaly ranged -2

to 00C over most parts of Jammu &

Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana,

Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, East India, North East

India, Chattisgarh, West Madhya Pradesh,

Gujarat, South Interior Karnataka, some

parts of Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, East

Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil

Nadu, Kerala, Coastal & North Interior

Karnataka, Maharashtra (except Konkan &

Goa), Saurashtra, Andaman & Nicobar

Islands, -4 to -20C over some parts of

Orissa, Chattisgarh, East Rajasthan,

Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Gujarat, 0 to

20C over remaining parts of the Country.

India 115

Relative humidity between 60 to 80% over

most parts of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu,

South & North Interior Karnataka, Madhya

Maharashtra, Marathwada, some parts of

West Rajasthan, Orissa, Kerala, Vidarbha,

West Madhya Pradesh, 80% and above

over remaining parts of the country.

Cloud amount 4 to 6 okta over most parts of

Jammu & Kashmir, Andhra Pradesh,

Marathwada, Vidarbha, some parts of Punjab,

West Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Orissa, Madhya

Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, North & South

Interior Karnataka, 2 to 4 okta over some parts

of Andhra Pradesh, North & south Interior

Karnataka, 0 to 2 okta over some parts of

Telengana, 6 okta and above over remaining

parts of the country.

Wind speed ranged between 8 to10 knots over some parts of Saurashtra & Kutch, 6 to 8 knots over

some parts of West Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra& Kutch, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, 4 to 6

knots over most Parts of Haryana, Delhi, East Rajasthan, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, South Interior

Karnataka, Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, some parts of Punjab, West Rajasthan,

West Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, North Interior

Karnataka, Maharashtra (except Vidarbha), Saurashtra& Kutch, 0 to 2 knots over most parts of

Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Sikkim,

North East India, East Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, some parts of Punjab, West Rajasthan, East

Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Orissa, Vidarbha, Telengana, Tamil Nadu, 2 to 4

knots over remaining parts of the country.


Appendix II

Agro Advisory Bulletin for the State of Maharashtra issued on Friday

12.08.2011 To 15.08.2011

Part A: Realized and forecast weather

Summary of past three days over the State (9th August to 11th August Morning ):

Monsoon was active over East Vidarbha on 9th and 10th August. Rain occurred at most

places over Konkan, at many places over Madhya Maharashtra and at few places over

Marathwada and Vidarbha.

Maximum temperatures ranged between 26-32°C and anomaly in it was found to be between

-4 to 2°C and minimum temperatures varied from 22 to 28°C and anomaly by -2 to 4 °C over

the State. Mean relative humidity was found to be between 60-100 %, Cloud cover was

almost 8 Okta and wind speed varied from 0-8 knots over the State.

13 districts of the state received normal to excess rainfall and rest of the districts received

deficient/ scanty rainfall during the week. 24 districts of the state received normal to excess

rainfall and rest of the districts received deficient rainfall till date during the season.

Distribution of weather parameters in the State (4.08.11 to 7.8.11)

India 117


Weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution

Rainfall forecast for the next five days (daywise)

Day 1 Day 2

Day 3 Day 4

India 119

Day 1

State Rainfall Forecast ( Next 72 Hours): Rain would occur at many places over Konkan

and at few places over Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha and at isolated places over

Marathwada.

Heavy Rainfall Warning : Isolated heavy rain would occur over Konkan during next 48

hours.

Outlook upto 0830 of 17th August: Fairly widespread rainfall activity over the State.


Part B

Crop information and Advisories Information showing kharif (major)sown area in Maharashtra state during 2011 as on 08.08.11

(Area in “00”ha)

(Data collected from the State Department of Agriculture, Maharashtra )

India 121


Stages of the major Kharif crop

( Crop stages and state as collected from AMFUs and State Department of Agriculture,

Maharashtra)

S:Sowing, G: Germination, Se: Seedlings, Trans: Transplanting, EV: Early vegetative,

V:Vegetative growth

ET : Early tillering, Br: Branching, flow: flowering

India 123

Crop Advisories � As rain is likely at many places over Konkan during next 3 days, farmers are advised to undertake intercultural operations and apply plant protection measures and

fertilizers after current spells of rain in Konkan and on a non-rainy day in Madhya

Maharashtra and Vidarbha. As there is chance of isolated heavy rain during next 48

hours in Konkan, farmers are advised to make an arrangement to drain out excess

water from standing crops field.

� Utilizing monsoon rain, farmers of east Vidarbha region are advised to complete the transplanting of 20 to 22 days old rice seedlings.

� Farmers in Maharashtra are advised to undertake sowing of spinach and fenugreek step by step. Also complete the transplanting of brinjal, tomato, cauliflower and

chilli.

� Maintain water level 5 cm by bunding of rice field in Konkan, Kolhapur, Pune, Nashik division and maintain 2-3 cm water level in east Vidarbha.

� Undertake hoeing and weeding in kharif jowar, soyabean, groundnut, cotton, bajra, maize to keep the crop weed free.

� Undertake the planting of fruit crops in Konkan and Kolhapur Division.

� As prevailing weather is favourable, farmers of Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada are advised to continue the planting of adsali sugarcane by selecting

variety among CO-86032 (Neera), COM-88121 and COM-0265(Phule-265). Select

10-11 months old cane sets.

� For better growth of cotton boll and control of red leaf in cotton, spray 2 % DAP after 45 to 60 days from sowing.

• Plant Protection:

� Due to light and uneven rains there may be incidence of leaf folder, army worm and blue beetle in rice in South Konkan, for control of leaf folder spray

Monocrotophos@ 12 ml/ 10 litres of water. For control of Armyworm and blue

beetle spraying of Monocrotophos 36WSC @ 14 ml or Carbaril 50 WP @ 20 g or

Cypermethrin 25 EC @ 2.4 ml per 10 litres of water or dusting with 2% Methyl

Parathion dust @ 20 kg/ha may be done.

� Due to humid and rainy weather there is chance of infestation of green semi looper and tobacco eating cater pillar in early sown soyabean in East Vidarbha, spray

Chloropyriphos 20 % @ 20 ml or Quinolphos 25 % @20 ml in 10 liters water. There

is also chance of infestation of girdle beetle in Marathwada, spray

Trizophos40EC@10 ml or Profenophos 50%WSC@25 ml in 10 litres water.

� Due to favourable weather infestation of sap sucking pest(aphids, jassids, thrips) may increase in cotton in Central Vidarbha zone, if infestation exceeds ETL (10

pests/ leaf) spray Dimethoate 30%@ 10 ml or Methyl Dimeton 25% @8 ml in 10

litres water. Due to continues cloudy weather there may be infestation of white fly,

aphids and jassids in western Maharashtra scarcity zone, spray Acitamiprid@4 g+


sticker in 10 litres water. There is also possibility of attack of mealy bug in cotton in

Pune division. For primary control of mealy bug, the weeds near the bunds of field

should be uprooted and destroyed. At primary stage use Metavyrazium anasoli or

verticylium leconi 4 gm per lit along with 1 gm detergent powder. If there is more

incidence, spray Dimethoate 30% 10 ml or Methyl Dimeton 25% @25 ml or Di

chlorovas 76% @1 ml or Chloropyriphos 20 ml or Acitamiprid 20% 20 gm per 10

lit. of water.

� Due to clouds and more humidity there is chance of infestation of powdery mildew in green gram in Central Vidarbha zone, spray Dinocap@10 ml or Tridemarf@10 ml

in 10 litres water.

Advisories for Transport in Agricultural Field

• As there is a chance of isolated heavy rainfall likely to occur in Konkan, transporters are

requested not to transport agricultural goods in and out of these areas.

Advisories for Fisheries

• Seed production and screening programme of ornamental fishes should be initiated and

carried out in south Konkan region

• If the seeds are available, release the small seeds or fingerlings in the conservation ponds @

10000 per ha or in small watershed reservoirs @ 2000 per ha.

Advisories for Poultry and Livestock

• Vaccination may be done to animals against H.S and B.Q disease under the guidance of

veterinary doctors.

• Provide green fodder and cool water for drinking. The varieties of perennial fodder crops

(stumps) like paragrass, Hybrid Napier, CO-3, Yashwant may be used.

• Protection may be given to Dairy/Farm animals, sheep, goat and poultry birds from

heavy rains and cold winds in Konkan. Do not allow to store water in animal shed. Pits

in cattle shed should be filled with soil.

• For mature animal, give 20 to 25 kg green fodder and 5 to 6 kg dry fodder and for

pregnant cow, give extra 1.5 to 2 kg supplementary feed after 7 months.

• In rainy season there is possibility of contagious disease in animal in Pune division. For

control of black quartec, give Penicylium Qutibiotics 10,000 international unit per kg

body weight at interval of 4 to 5 days. For control of hemorrhagic septicemia disease,

give Oxytetracyclin 10 mg per kg body wt at interval of 4 to 5 days.

Advisories for storage

• As isolated heavy rainfall is likely to occur over Konkan, farmers are advised to store

seeds and fertilizers in safer places.

India 125

Appendix III

Last week weather (Form 30th July to 02nd, August, 2011)

During the week, 40-100 percent cloud cover and total rainfall 90.3 mm were record in the

agrometeorological observatory at Tikamgarh. The maximum temperature and minimum

temperature were recorded of 33.1 and 24.6°C, respectively during the week. Relative

humidity varied between 84 and 100% during morning and 62 and100% during afternoon

hours respectively. Average wind speed was 6.8 km/hr and evaporation rate recoded 3.5

mm/day during the week.

Medium range Weather forecast (Valid from 03rd to 07th August 2011)

Five days forecast description is based on the numerical weather forecast received from

IMD, Bhopal

There is possibility of medium rainfall during next five days and (90%) cloudy weather

conditions in the district, Maximum temperature will be around 30°C. Minimum temperature

is expected to be 25°C in next five days. Moderate winds of an average speed of 04 to 11

km/hr are expected during next five days. Predominant winds are expected to be westerly.

Weather based Agro-Advisories (For week ending on 9th August, 2011)

Advisories based on advices received from subject matter specialists/members of agro-

advisory committee

There is possibility of medium rainfall during next five days; farmers are advised to spray

the agrochemicals with 1 ml teepol as sticker.

Cereals, oilseeds and pulses:

There is report of attack of grasshopper in the soybean crop. If found, it is advised to spray

quinolphos @1.5 ml per litre of water in clear sky condition.

There is possibility of medium rainfall during next five days. Farmers are advised to monitor

the crop during next five days; there is report of attack of stem fly in the soybean crop. If

found it is advised to spray melathiyon 50 E.C. @100 ml per litre of water.

If crops are 25-30 days old, farmers are also advised for hoeing in the crop.

Fruits and vegetable:

In view of cloudy and rainy weather, farmers are advised to monitoring the mite, jassid and

grasshopper in the ladyfinger and brinjal crop; If found it is advised to spray Phosmite @1.5-


2.0 ml per litre of water for mite and control for the jassid and grasshopper to spray rogur in

clear sky condition.

In view of rainfall; Farmers are advised to monitor the cucurbits vegetable crops and provide

supports the plants (climb up) to prevent cucurbits from rotting in standing water. Make

arrangement of appropriate drainage for safe disposal of excess water In present weather

condition, farmers are advised to monitor the chilly and tomato crops for sucking pest because of

leaf curl may be possible. If found, it is advised to spray the crops with Methyl Dematon 25 E.C.

@2.0 ml per litre of water in clear sky condition

There is possibility of light rainfall during next five days; farmers are advised to do the transplant

of banana and practicise cutting of water suckers in old plants.

Animal husbandry & poultry:

Farmers are advised to vaccinate their milch cattle against H.F. and B.Q disease.

In rainy season lesser digestion of grasses is a common phenomenon in milch cattle therefore,

supplement the food with mineral and salt.

(A. K. Srivastava)

Nodal Officer

Janaki Prasad Khanal

Regional Director of Agriculture

Regional Directorate of Agriculture

Hariharbhawan, Lalitpur, Nepal

[email protected]

5.3 NEPAL

Nepal 129

5.3.1 Introduction

Historically, farmers have learned to cope with climate variability and have often adapted

crops and farming practices to suit new conditions in a consistent manner. But the severity

and pace of climate change is presenting new, unprecedented challenges. The poor in rural

and urban areas have a low capacity to adapt and thus will be most adversely affected as they

depend on climate sensitive activities . Gradual changes in temperatures and precipitation as

well as more frequent extreme weather are expected to result in crop failures, livestock

deaths and other asset losses, thereby threatening food production but also access, stability

and utilization of food resources. In some areas, the changes may well exceed the adaptation

capacity of populations.

Total agricultural production in the developing world declined from an average annual

growth of 3.3 per cent during the period 1995-2000 to 3.0 per cent during the period 2000-

2007. One of the reasons for this decrease was the alarming increase of natural disasters in

number of countries. During the past four decades, weather and climate risks such as

droughts, floods, storms, tropical cyclones, heat waves and wild land fires and windstorms

have caused major losses in the agricultural sector (Sivakumar, 2005). Communities that are

most exposed to these risks are those with limited access to technological resources and with

limited development of infrastructure. Currently there are many opportunities that can assist

in coping effectively with agrometeorological risks and uncertainties (Meinke and Stone,

2005). One of the most important strategies is improved use of climate knowledge and

climate risk technologies. Both structural and non-structural measures can be used to reduce

the impacts of the variability (including extremes) of climate resources on crop production

(Wilhite, 2005). Planning, early warning and well-prepared response strategies are the major

tools for mitigating losses.

Farmers can play an important role in reducing global emissions by planting trees, reducing

tillage, increasing soil cover, improving grassland management, altering forage and animal

breeds and using fertilizer more efficiently among other measures.

In the developing countries, where adoption of improved technologies is too slow to

counteract the adverse effects of varying environmental conditions, climate fluctuations are

the main factors that prevent the regular supply and availability of food, the key to food

security. Hence it is imperative that weather and climate variability aspects are well

understood so as to formulate more sustainable policies and strategies to promote food

production and food security.

5.3.2 Climate Change and Agriculture

Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a

global scale. Global warming is projected to have significant impacts on conditions affecting

agriculture, including temperature, precipitation and glacial run-off. These conditions

determine the carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food for the human

population and domesticated animals. Rising carbon dioxide levels would also have effects,

both detrimental and beneficial, on crop yields. The overall effect of climate change on

agriculture will depend on the balance of these effects. Assessment of the effects of global


climate changes on agriculture might help to properly anticipate and adapt farming to

maximize agricultural production.

Despite technological advances, such as improved varieties, genetically modified organisms,

and irrigation systems, weather is still a key factor in agricultural productivity, as well as soil


variations in local climates rather than in global climate patterns. Consequently, agronomists

consider that any assessment has to be individually considered for each local area.

In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways:

• Productivity- in terms of quantity and quality of crops

• Agricultural practices- through changes of water use (irrigation) and agricultural

inputs such as herbicides, pesticides and fertilizers

• Environmental effects- in relation of frequency and intensity of soil drainage

(leading to nitrogen leaching), soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity

• Rural space -through the loss and gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land


• Adaptation- organisms may become more or less competitive, as well as humans



5.3.3 Impact of Climate Change in Nepalese Agriculture

Least developed countries are the ultimate bearer of the likely impact of climate change.

They are more at risk from climate change because of their dependence on agriculture,

especially the subsistence and with poor irrigation and soil management practice. Climate

variability has a more severe impact on the economies in which agriculture is a large share

of GDP. Developed as well as few newly emerging developing economies are the major

pollutants. They are emitting a large amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) as they consume

unlimited quantity of fossil fuel to sustain their economic growth rate and maintain their

living standard thus giving birth to global warming. Scientists have proved that GHG

emission is the sole agent of global warming and climate change. The intensity of the impact

of global warming and climate change is more sensitive to the less emitting countries like

Nepal.

Nepal is extremely vulnerable to climate change like other GHG gas non-emitting countries.

Its emission level is lowest in the world measuring only 0.025% of global GHG emissions.

However, this ratio is increasing over time. From the last couple of years, Nepal has been

experiencing flooding, landslides, drought and variability in the occurrence of the regular

course of monsoon. Flooding of the Kosi River in monsoon, over the past two years has

displaced millions in Nepal as well as in Bihar (India). On the other hand, a weakened and

irregular monsoon is causing drought threatening hundreds of millions of farmers all over

India, Bangladesh and Nepal while heavy rains have caused terrible landslides across the

Himalayas. The agriculture production particularly paddy in the current year in Nepal will

decrease considerably due to the late monsoon. Likewise, last year’s drought plagued winter

Nepal 131

has adversely affected this year’s food production creating deficit of food. Currently up to

3.4 million people are estimated to require food assistance in Nepal due to a combination of

natural disasters (particularly winter drought) affecting agricultural production and higher

food prices, reducing people’s ability to purchase food. Scientists claim that Nepal is getting

warmer. Monsoon changes its regular course in a slow and creeping manner. While none of

these natural disasters can be directly attributed to climate change, scientists predict that they

will become more frequent and more severe unless we act properly. Furthermore, scientists

claim that increasing warming and changes in the occurrence of monsoon in Nepal are the

worst consequences of climate change. Most of the arable land remains fallow as its

cultivation depends on the rainfall resulting in food supply shortages. The livelihood of the

majority of farmers is in danger due to crop failures arising from the uncertainty of

monsoon. It is the poorest who are most vulnerable to these natural disasters getting most

severely affected by the climate change. The rising trend of warming if allowed to continue

will put the Himalayan glacier in danger. Scientists have warned that the fast melting of ice

in the Himalayan range will convert the ever flowing river into desert after 30 years.

5.3.4 Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management

Practices in Nepal

Different adaptation options selected and screened based on hazard specificity and location

specific preferences are presented below. The practices are under field testing to find out

suitability for replication in similar areas. The following list provides selected practices

under each of the prioritized hazards.

i. Rain Water Harvesting and Soil Moisture Conservation: More than 80% of the total

annual rainfall in Nepal is received during the rainy season (June – September). The rainfall

is erratic and mountain slopes offer little opportunity for storage. Major crops grown during

rainy months and dry season face seasonal drought. On average, 65% of the total cultivated

land is rainfed and yields are low. Further, livestock rearing as a livelihood activity in mid-

hills and terrai requires adequate water both for cultivating fodder crops and/or pastures and

for drinking. Water harvesting becomes essential to support livelihood activities throughout

the year. Some projects support excavation of a model water harvesting pond in selected

VDC with recommended dimension considering farmer’s preference. The practice is

promoted with a primary objective of reducing the impact of drought. Similarly, soil surface

mulching techniques are required to enhance soil water retention and to manage drought

risks.

ii. Improvement of Degraded Land: More than 90% of the population in Nepal is

dependent upon the land for the fulfilment of basic needs (food, fuel, fibre and timber).

Land degradation has resulted in decline in land quality or reduction in its potential

productivity. Both the natural conditions and human activities contribute to the degradation

of land in Nepal. Natural hazards like landslides in the hills, drought in the most of the areas

of the country and flooding in the foothills and the Terai have frequently contributed to land

degradation leading to poor socio-economic conditions and deterioration of natural

ecosystems. Anthropogenic causes such as deforestation, overgrazing, and unscientific

farming in steep slopes have resulted in loss of flora, fauna, erosion of top soil, occurrence of

landslides in the hills and flooding in the plain areas. The repeated pressure of grazing on


grasslands beyond its carrying capacity, shifting cultivation in the mountains and

overgrazing in the open lands lead to land degradation and damage the ground vegetation

and grassland ecosystems. Climate change and associated impacts contributes to additional

vulnerability. Improvement of degraded land contributes to climate change adaptation and

mitigation together with potential benefits for disaster risk reduction. To manage such risks

the activities include plantation of broom grass, forage/fodder grass, nitrogen fixing

plant/tree species and agroforestry systems. The practices are expected to improve farmers

coping mechanisms against climate risks. Community fallow lands in selected VDCs will be

converted into grassland and reforested with fodder/forage crops to enhance livelihood

opportunities and community level assets.

iii. Mitigation of River Bank Cutting: Soil erosion due to over grazing, deforestation and

agricultural activities can cause an undercut of the river banks. As a result several rivers

entering into Terai region in Nepal deposit tonnes of sediment from the site of erosion onto

the river bed causing water stagnation and loss of productive land. Increased pressure on

land and accelerated intensity of rainfall events due to changing climate are perceived to

enhance the damage and loss agriculture infrastructure and crops. Revetments need to be

created to stabilise river banks and reduce erosion. Both living materials such as

fodder/forage grass and bamboo plantations can mitigate the impacts of extreme climate

events like floods and non-living materials such as rocks and boulders are suitable to

stabilise points of erosion.

iv. Slope Stabilization and Management: Nepal is a mountainous country: approximately

86% of the area is characterized by steep hills and mountains. Two of the four pilot districts

represent approximately 30% of the mid-hills are affected by landslides and soil erosion.

Intensive use of the land resource for agriculture, grazing and fuel wood and development of

infrastructure without adequate conservation measures has accelerated surface gully and

mass wasting erosion in Nepal. The percentage of landslides caused by human activities is

significantly higher in the densely populated mid-hills. One of the major causes of slope

instability produced by human activities is deforestation in the hills and mountains. Climate

change and associated climate variability would exacerbate the slope instability due to

extreme precipitation events. Slope Agriculture Land Technology (SALT) is one of the

practices identified for promotion. Slope land management by plantation of fodder trees and

coffee in terrace to control erosion is being promoted in mid-hills of Arghakanchi district.

This practice is being implemented by involving farmer groups. The practice provides dual

benefit: soil erosion control and fodder for livestock. Another option prioritized to stabilize

the slopes is the hedge row planting. Rows of perennial crops such as coffee, cacao, citrus

and banana are planted on every third alley created by contoured hedge rows. The alleys not

occupied by permanent crops are planted alternately to cereals such as corn, upland rice,

sweet potato, melon and legumes such as mungbean, soybean etc., This cyclical cropping

provides the farmer with several harvests throughout the year. The intervention would

identify best suitable model for the mid-hill region.

v. Management of High/Low Temperature Stress: Temperature records of the last 30

years indicate increasing trend and the warming seems to be consistent and continuous after

the mid-1970s. The average warming in annual temperature between 1977 and 1994 was

0.06 ºC/yr and warming is more pronounced in high and mid hill regions of Nepal and lower

in the Terai regions. Warming in the winter is more pronounced compared to other seasons.

Nepal 133

Summer temperature exceeds the thresholds of many agricultural crops and in certain cases,

fluctuations in winter temperature causes temperature stress. Two viable practices have been

identified for field demonstration with farmers to reduce the impact of temperature

fluctuations: (i) Tunnel farming and off season vegetable cultivation and (ii) Community

cantered small scale potato seed storage.

Tunnel farming technology is suitable and preferred by the small-farmers to produce off-

season vegetables. Hence priority is being given for the development of localised tunnel

farming technology by using new ways and techniques. Localised tunnel cultivation system

is sustainable and causes low environmental pollution to agriculture system in addition to

reducing the high/low temperature risks. The technology has been locally considered helpful

to increase agricultural production and diversify the agriculture base.

vi. Crop diversification: Nepal is broadly divided from south to north into three agro-

ecological zones. Based on the prevailing climatic conditions, different types of crops can be

grown. Primarily, rice, wheat, legumes and oilseeds are the major commodities of the Terai,

rice, maize, wheat, pulses and oilseed are major commodities in the hills and potato, barley,

buckwheat and amaranthus are the commodities suitable for the mountains. Based on the

above conditions the suitable cropping patterns are being promoted. However, there is local

scale dry and wet spells which affect these crops and needs intercropping systems to

stabilize the productivity. Farmers in mid-hills prefer to grow soybeans/beans and Zinger

with maize as an intercrop to reduce the risk of drought. Similarly the preferred intercrops

with wheat are Pea and mustard. Field demonstrations were started in participation with

farmers to identify best suited intercropping systems in mid-hills.

vii. Climate Change Adaptation and Resource Conservation: Practice of cultivating rice

and wheat is unique in Indo-Gangetic Plains because of suitable thermal conditions for both

crops during the annual cycle in warm-temperate and sub-tropical areas. Since 1960s, there

has been substantial increase in the area cultivated to rice – wheat in Terai regions. The

driving force for expansion, however, remains the increasing demand for food that must be

met by more intensive production systems because no new land is available for expansion of

agriculture. In many places, the pressure to intensify agriculture is exacerbated, as land is

lost through degradation and by urbanization. The magnitude and intensity of Rice – Wheat

systems in the region depend in part upon soil and climate but also on the socio-economic

circumstances of the farmers.

Rice and wheat yields in warm environments can be raised significantly by modifying

agronomic practices. Conservation agriculture involves significant reductions in tillage,

surface retention of adequate crop residues, and diversified, economically viable crop

rotations. Along with other resource-conserving farming practices, conservation agriculture

can improve rural incomes and livelihoods by reducing production costs, managing agro-

ecosystem productivity and diversity more sustainably, and minimizing unfavorable

environmental impacts, especially in small and medium-scale farms. One of the longer term

productivity benefits of conservation agriculture practices would be to reverse the

widespread, chronic soil degradation that threatens yields in intensive wheat-cropping

systems like those of the Indo-Gangetic Plains. Conservation agriculture with minimum

tillage, zero tillage, surface seeding of wheat in the rice – wheat system, bed planting and


arobic rice and System of Rice Intensification are the better mix showing climate change

adaptation and mitigation synergies.

viii. Drought Tolerant Varieties of Crops: Clearly, rice, wheat and maize yields in lower

latitudes may decrease due to global warming, which may be further affected by water

scarcity or drought. One approach to dealing with these heat-related constraints is to improve

rice, wheat and maize germplasm to provide higher tolerance to stresses associated with

these environments. Hence, the new varieties screened by NARC are being demonstrated to

the farmers focusing on enhancing the crop yield potential and to maintain yield under

higher temperatures. In this way, they will assist in building cropping system resilience to

the global warming and natural hazards that could jeopardize the livelihoods of resource-

poor farmers who depend on the rice, wheat and maize harvest.

5.3.5 The Need for Agrometeorological Advisory Service (AAS)

From the last couple of years, Nepal has been experiencing flooding, landslides, drought and

variability in the occurrence of the regular course of monsoon. Flooding of the Kosi River in

monsoon, over the past two years has displaced millions in Nepal as well as in Bihar (India).

On the other hand, a weakened and irregular monsoon is causing drought threatening

millions of farmers all over Nepal while heavy rains have caused terrible landslides across

the Himalayas. The agriculture production particularly paddy in the current year in Nepal

will decrease by half due to the late monsoon. Likewise, last year’s drought plagued winter

has adversely affected this year’s food production creating deficit of food. According to a

World Food Programme estimate more than 3.4 million people in Nepal currently require

food assistance, due to a combination of natural disasters, including last year's winter

drought - one of the worst in the country's history, affecting agricultural production and

higher food prices, reducing people’s ability to purchase food.

Scientists claim that Nepal is getting warmer. Monsoon changes its regular course in a slow

and creeping manner. While none of these natural disasters can be directly attributed to

climate change, scientists predict that they will become more frequent and more severe

unless we act properly.

Furthermore, scientists claim that increasing warming and changes in the occurrence of

monsoon in Nepal are the worst consequences of climate change. Agriculture sector is facing

its dire effects with the fall in production and productivity. Most of the arable land remains

fallow as its cultivation depends on the rainfall resulting in food supply shortages. The

livelihood of the majority of farmers is in danger due to crop failures arising from the

uncertainty of monsoon. It is the poorest who are most vulnerable to these natural disasters

getting most severely affected by the climate change. The rising trend of warming if allowed

to continue will put the Himalayan glacier in danger. Scientists have warned that the fast

melting of ice in the Himalayan range will convert the ever flowing river into desert after 30

years. There will be shortage of water that would put livelihood of 1 billion people in

danger.

Farmers were changing crop patterns from rice paddy that needs more water to vegetables,

selling assets like livestock because there was not enough water for them and are migrating

in search of work.

Nepal 135

According to an Oxfam report on Nepal, changing weather patterns had caused crop

production to dramatically drop across Nepal, leaving farmers unable to properly feed

themselves and pushing them into debt. Among recent changes in weather patterns in Nepal

are an increase in temperature extremes, more intense rainfall and increased unpredictability

in weather patterns.

Oxfam report based on interviews conducted in rural communities across Nepal in February

and March last year revealed that majority of Nepal's population are poor farmers reliant on

rainfall and occupying small parcels of land that can barely produce enough food for the

family.They often live in areas most at risk to floods and landslides and are more reliant on

local natural resources such as forests and water. Even small changes to rainfall patterns can

have devastating consequences on their crops.

Last year Nepal's winter rains failed altogether, leading to severe water shortages and power

cuts of up to 18 hours a day in the capital as hydro-electric projects struggled to meet

demand.

Nepal could face drier phases during dry seasons with wetter monsoon (as much as three

times the current level of rainfall) with chances of flooding and landslides during rainy

seasons with subsequent impacts on agriculture and livelihoods(Alan M, Regmi B.R., 2005).

The effect of unprecedented climatic codition over past years have been observed

detrimental to agriculture production and productivity in Nepal.

Cold wave in Nepal in 1997/98 had negative impacts on agricultural productivity and

showed reduction in the production of crops by 27.8, 36.5, 11.2, 30, 37.6 and 38 % in potato,

toria, sarson, rayo, lentil and chickpea respectively (Source: NARC annual reports from

1987/88 to 1997/98,).

Eastern Terai faced rain deficit in the year 2005/06 by early monsoon and crop production

reduced by 12.5% on national basis. Nearly 10% of agri- land were left fallow due to rain

deficit while mid western Terai faced heavy rain with floods, which reduced production by

30% in the year (Regmi, 2007).


adverse effects associated with it could be minimized. Had we been able to forecast the

changes quite advance and advice the farmers to cope with the changes, there could not have

been such a great loss in production and productivity of agricultural crops. Nepal has not

been able to cope with such cliamte and weather related problems due to its poor data base

and weak advance weather forecasting mechanism. The agromet advisory system is not well

established and needs to be strenghthened at different levels.

Climate determines the general adaptation of ecosystems and land use activities at any

location. Year to year recurrences of extreme climate events such as drought, flooding,

hot/cold spells, etc. often have far reaching consequences in agriculture. Advance warning of

such events through climate prediction can minimize various socio-economic problems

which are often associated with such events. The severity of the socio-economic impacts of

climate related stress varies significantly from one region to another. The impacts are

generally more severe in Nepal where technological adaptations are often very low, and

where most of the agricultural systems are rain dependent.


The unprecedented monsoon behavior has prompted farming communities to search for

advance measures to manage the risks of change in weather and climate. Like in other

developing countries, Nepalese farmers have developed their own methods of climate and

weather forecasting based on their experience, religious beliefs and observations of their

environment to anticipate weather patterns and they rely on interpretation of cloud color and

form, animal behavior and flowering of certain plants, among others, as indicators of

seasonal conditions. The prevalence of traditional forecasting methods reflects the demand

for advance climate information to cope with climate variability in planning for agricultural

operations .

Direct effect on

Crop Growth

� Physiology

� Phenology

� Morphology

Indirect effects

� Soil fertility

� Irrigation availability

� Pests

� Floods & Droughts

� Sea level rise

Socio-economics

� Food demand

� Cost & benefits

� Policy

� Trade

� Farmers

response

Agricultural

Production &

Vulnerability

Human intervention

Adaptation strategies

Mitigation Strategies

Climate Change

cHANGE

Figure 1. Assessment of Vulnerability of Agriculture to

Climate Change

Nepal 137

Such global climatic changes will affect agriculture through their direct and indirect effects

on crops, soils, livestock and pests. Increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide has a fertilization

effect on crops with C3 photosynthetic pathway and thus promotes their growth and

productivity. Increase in temperature, depending upon the current ambient temperature, on

the other hand, can reduce crop duration, increase crop respiration rates, alter photosynthate

partitioning to economic products, effect the survival and distributions of pest populations

thus developing new equilibrium between crops and pests, hasten nutrient mineralisation in

soils, decrease fertilizer use efficiencies, and increase evapo-transpiration. Indirectly, there

may be considerable effects on land use due to snow melt, availability of irrigation,

frequency and intensity of inter- and intra-seasonal droughts and floods, soil organic matter

transformations, soil erosion, changes in pest profiles, decline in arable areas due to

submergence of coastal lands, and availability of energy. All these can have tremendous

impact on agricultural production and hence food security of any region. Equally important

determinants of food supply are socio-economic environment including government policies,

capital availability, prices and returns, infrastructure, land reforms, and inter- and intra-

national trade that might be effected by climatic change.

Agriculture and its economy in Nepal is strongly influenced by the vagaries of the weather.

The farming community is in great need to have access to weather information to plan and

manage their crops and their livelihoods. One of the important communication systems

which is gaining increased acceptance in the recent times is the Internet. It is the need of the

day to provide valuable agro-meteorological information to the users through an interface

like Crop Weather Outlook of SAARC countries and exchange of meteorological data

between national Meteorological Services of WMO member countries.

Long-range forecasts could provide the indications of monsoon rainfall variability at local

level or at farm level. Established crop calendars and yields would get disturbed by the

following aberrations in rainfall behavior :





5. The rains may be violent or week.


measures:



crops;



location;






livestock.

Whereas at regional level or district level it can help policy makers to take certain initiatives

on the following aspects to mitigate the adverse situation:

1. Water Resources Management: Water resources managers at catchment, watershed and

river basin levels could undertake proactive measures to manage water resources. There is a

potential possibility of introducing water budgeting arrangements to prioritize water use and

allocate water resources among various competitive users. In areas where water availability

for irrigation purposes is scarce, a campaign can be launched to advise farmers to provide

minimum irrigation only at the critical crop stages. The lead-time available could be used for

augmenting water resources by constructing small-scale water harvesting structures and

rehabilitating old irrigation structures.

2. Compensatory Cropping Program: This has two dimensions. One is to try to compensate

for crop loss in the most severely affected areas by intensifying the production program and

increasing yield in the most favorable areas where there are expectations of good rainfall and

availability of assured irrigation sources. The second is to make up the crop loss in the same

area by taking up short duration cultivars.

3. Alternate Cropping Strategy: This involves shifting of crops which could be grown on the

availability of soil moisture during less than normal conditions. The success of this strategy

could depend on government intervention in providing input and market support to farmers.


agroclimatic zonation maps to evolve suitable cropping patterns. District level institutions

would have lead-time to provide agricultural input support, credit arrangements and

technical advisories to enable farmers to undertake contingency crop plans. District level

institutions could also provide support for marketing the agricultural products.

Similarly central level institutions could provide necessary support to district level

institutions and farming communities in terms of resources. Governments can undertake

policy decisions to map out potential impact areas and target resources for mitigation

measures. They could also undertake policy measures for export and import of agricultural

commodities. Governments could undertake measures to plan for good logistics such as

procurement of food grains, transport and distribution to potentially affected areas.

The broad strategy of such a project in a specific region would be to:

1. Forecast seasonal onset of monsoon indicating the dates of monsoon onset at ten day

intervals

2. Forecast monthly rainfall

3. Seasonal cumulative rainfall status for the entire season.

4. Determine the baseline relationship between climate variability and crop production

in the region

Nepal 139

5. Establish awareness in the region of the potential for climate predictions to be used

to increase crop yield

6. Mobilize a multi-disciplinary team to design and execute the project in the region

7. Identify agriculture practices in the region that may be modified through knowledge

of future climate variations

8. Design a project in which the impact of changes in agriculture practice can be

quantified;

5.3.6 Existing Agrometeorological Advisory Service in Nepal

Agrometeorological advisory service (AAS) in Nepal is at rudimentary stage. It is not well

organized and what so ever exists is not easily accessible to the end users. The agency

responsible for this service is Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) of the

Government of Nepal. Government of Nepal started hydrological and meteorological

activities in an organized way in 1962. The activities were initiated as a section under the

Department of Electricity. The section was subsequently transferred to the Department of

Irrigation and was ultimately upgraded to Department status in 1988. The department with

headquarters in Kathmandu has three basin offices: Karnali Basin Office in Surkhet,

Narayani Basin Office in Pokhara and Kosi Basin Office in Dharan. DHM has a mandate

from Government of Nepal to monitor all the hydrological and meteorological activities in

Nepal. The scope of work includes the monitoring of river hydrology, climate,

agrometeorology, sediment, air quality, water quality, limnology, snow hydrology,

glaciology, and wind and solar energy. General and aviation weather forecasts are the

regular services provided by DHM. As a member of the World Meteorological Organisation

(WMO), DHM contributes to the global exchange of meteorological data on a regular basis.

The department is also a focal point for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) and for the meteorological activities of the South Asian Association for Regional Co-

operation (SAARC). The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has recognized

DHM as an authority to provide meteorological services for international flights.

Agromet Section of DHM is responsible for preparation of crop calendar of different

weather to help agriculture.

DHM maintains nation-wide networks of 337 precipitation stations, 154 hydrometric

stations, 20 sediment stations, 68 climatic stations, 22 agrometeorological stations, 9

synoptic stations and 6 Aero-synoptic stations (Appendix 1). Data are made available to

users through published reports, bulletins, and computer media outputs such as hard copies

or diskettes. DHM publishes data on an annual basis. Most of the sections under DHM are

equipped with personal computer systems connected through a network. The computers are

not only used for database management but also for hydrological and meteorological

modelling and analyses. Hydrological and meteorological studies are produced as reports

every year. Recent publications include the reports on low flow analyses, flood risk

assessment and integrated database developments.

DHM is equipped with several data collection facilities based on different technologies, such

as, wireless communication, meteor burst, Satellite Distribution Information System


(SADIS), Weather Fax, and satellite picture receiving system. Wireless system connects

Kathmandu to 54 stations spread over Nepal for climatic and hydrological data whereas the

Global Telecommunication System (GTS) links DHM to the global meteorological

community.

DHM actively participates in the programs of relevant international organizations, such as,

the UNESCO's International Hydrological Program (IHP) and WMO's Operational

Hydrology Program (OHP). In the past, DHM has hosted several regional and international

workshops, symposia, seminars and meetings on different aspects of meteorology,

hydrology, sediment, and snow hydrology. The department is also a focal point for the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and for the meteorological activities of

the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC). The International Civil

Aviation Organization (ICAO) has recognized DHM as an authority to provide

meteorological services for international flights.

DHM publishes Hydrological and Meteorological Data, Water Quality and Air Pollution

data, Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly Weather Report, Weather Information for Civil

Aviation and 24 hours Weather Forecasting for General Public. It also publishes monthly

weather summary report covering different climatic parameters. Weather Information for

Civil Aviation and 24 hours Weather Forecasting for General Public is broadcast through

radio Nepal and Nepal Television daily. Sample weather bulletins are attached on Appendix

2-6.

The other agency involved in some sort of agrometeorological activities is the Nepal

Agricultural Research Council (NARC). There are four regional agricultural research

stations and 13 agricultural stations under NARC. It has meteorological stations in each farm

located throughout the country. Presently climate and weather data are recorded and

alnalyzed for research purpose only. This analysis could be made applicable to the local

level farmers through weather forecast bulletins. The dilemma is that the Department of

Agriculture (DOA), NARC and DHM have no coordination and cooperation in providing

AAS to the farmers. DOA does provide advisory service to the farmers through its regular

network and has no specific AAS prevalent in Nepal. The extension and communication

service that includes AAS at different level is as follows.

5.3.6.1 National level:

DHM publishes weekly, monthly, and quarterly weather report, crop calendar and 24 hours

weather forecasting for general public. It also publishes monthly weather summary report

covering different climatic parameters. Prime users of these bulletins are Ministry of

Agriculture and Cooperatives, DOA, researchers, mountaineers, NGOs and other

stakeholders.

Bimonthly agriculture bulletin published by Agriculture Information and Communication

center under Ministry of Agriculture and Communication highlights major climatic issues

among other technical issues in agriculture. The end users of this bulletin are the farmers

Commodity Program Directorates under DOA also publish quarterly and annual bulletins

covering among other issues agrometeorological data relevant to the concerned field.

Nepal 141

NARC also publishes its quarterly and annual reports covering agrometeorological data of

the research stations and its application in research and extension.

Agriculture Extension Directorate (AED) under DOA collects weekly weather reports from

the districts through District Agricultural Development Offices (DADO) on general

observation basis. It compiles and interprets data and present in a bulletin published

quarterly/annually. AED has mentained Agriculture Knowledge Bank where one can access

relevant information on agriculture including agrometeorological advices.

5.3.6.2 Regional level:

There are five development regions in Nepal, Each Regional Directorate under DOA

publishes its quarterly bulletin covering agrometeorological issues of the region. Similarly,

four Regional Agricultural Research Stations also publish research bulletins covering

agrometeorological issues among others.

Co-work/Co-ordination Line of Command Information Flow

Figure 2: Existing AAS Generation and Dissemination Mechanism

Ministry of agriculture and Cooperatives ( GON)

Department of Agriculture

Directorate of agriculture Extension

District Agriculture Development Office

Agriculture Service Centers

Nepal Agriculture Research Council

Agriculture Research Stations

NGOs

Ministry of Science and Technology (GON)

337 precipitation stations, 154 hydrometric stations, 20 sediment stations, 68 climatic stations, 22 agrometeorological stations, 9 synoptic stations and 6 Aero-synoptic stations

Department of Hydrology and Meteorology

Mass Media and ICT

Rural Telecenters

Ministry of Environment (GON)

Farmers Groups/Farmers


5.3.6.3 District level:

District level organization of DOA is DADO which is responsible for the implementation of

agricultural programs in the district. The grass root level organization for agriculture is

Agriculture Service Center (ASC) under DADO. The number of ASC is 4-6 per district.

DADO publishes different extension materials covering farming technology and advices to

the farmers. It also broadcasts advice to the farmers through FM radios and cable televisions.

Existing agrometeorological advisory mechanism at different level is presented in Figure 2.

The Government of Nepal has been focusing on strengthening farmers' knowledge on

sustainable farm practices in their overall efforts to augment food security of the nation.

Nepalese farmers are facing a multitude of problems to sustain crop productivity. Many of

these problems are linked to variability in weather and climate. To address this issue

effectively, the Government should provide AAS to generate agro-meteorological

information (weather forecast and agro-met-advisories) and develop suitable dissemination

system, to the farming community in order to improve crop/livestock productivity. Presently

DHM publishes weather reports through the center only. It does not have its regional level

and district level institutions. Though DOA has its wide network right from ASC (cluster of

VDCs). to the center, no work is done specifically to agromet advice to the farmers. The

institutions under DOA involved in extension activities do include agromet advices in their

extension publications. Regular publication of agromet bulletins from central and district

level with the use of weather data from DHM and its stations will enable farmers to take

advantage of good weather and minimise the adverse impact of bad weather on crops.

Presently, the weather based agro-advisories do not exist and overall agricultural advices are

disseminated to the farming community at district level through word of mouth and mass

media (Radio, Print and TV). But there exists a wide information gap between information

generator, processor and user. The delivery or collection of the information by the

generator/processor in a timely manner needs to be stepped up. AED under DOA should be

made responsible to bridge the information gap by exploiting advances in Information

Technology (IT), which has witnessed incremental use in dissemination of information in the

recent past.

5.3.6.4 Weather Observing System:

Weather observation is carried out through 337 precipitation stations, 154 hydrometric

stations, 20 sediment stations, 68 climatic stations, 22 agrometeorological stations, 9

synoptic stations and 6 Aero-synoptic stations run by DHM. There are 13 observatories run

by NARC for research purpose. Similarly each government farms of DOA has

agrometeorological observatory to record climatic data. All these sources collect climatic

data and make use of their own. These have to be integrated to yield AAS to be used for

weather forecasting and dissemination to the end users.

5.3.6.5 Weather Forecasting System:

Weather forecasting is done by DHM through mass media like radio, TV and newspapers for

24 hours. Weekly, monthly and quarterly weather report of DHM can also be accessed

through different media. But weather forecasting of longer duration is erratic. DHM makes

announcement of longer duration forecasts through mass media in case of emergency and

Nepal 143

long spell of detrimental weather conditions. Regular weather forecasting of longer duration

is not yet practiced. The reliability of weather forecast through DHM is found poor. DHM

should expand its technical capability with collaboration from different International and

Regional Organizations working in the field of agrometeorology.

5.3.6.6 Advisory Dissemination Mechanism:

Weather based advisory dissemination mechanism is very weak in Nepal. A strong

mechanism should be developed to deliver weather based advisories to the farmers through

mass media dissemination, Internet etc. as well as through district level intermediaries. The

advisories should be communicated through multi-channel dissemination system including

Radio, television channels, FM radios, print media (newspapers), Internet and Rural

Telecenters of Ministry of Science and Technology, Cell Phone-SMS, ASCs ,DADOs,

NGOs etc. A mechanism has to be developed to obtain feedback from the farmers on quality

of weather forecast, relevance and content of agro-met advisory and effectiveness of

information dissemination system. The weather based information, generated by 337

precipitation stations, 154 hydrometric stations, 20 sediment stations, 68 climatic stations, 22

agrometeorological stations, 9 synoptic stations and 6 Aero-synoptic stations are being

analyzed and disseminated to the end users through published reports, bulletins, and

computer media outputs such as hard copies or diskettes and mass media dissemination,

Internet etc. A separate package of AAS has to be prepared by DHM with coordination from

NARC and DOA. The dissemination mechanism needs to be scaled up to communicate

advisories through multi-channel dissemination system including Radio, TV, print media,

Cell Phone-SMS, Farmers Call Centers, Internet and Rural Telecenters of Department of

Science and Technology In order to communicate agromet advisory in real time to the rural

farmers in every district of the country District Agriculture Development Committees

comprising all the stakeholders should be made responsible for strengthening the agro-met

advisory service. Meteorological information may be linked with agri-productivity measures

like farming inputs/ precautions/ package of practices –information and guidance.


solution for small farmers through integrated framework of the related stakeholders

like NARC, Agricultural Institutes/Colleges etc.

• Weather warnings to ensure minimal losses due to disasters. Establishing a two way

communication linkage through ASCs so that agri-related queries may be attended

to and replied.

• A mechanism may also be developed to obtain regular feedback based on the skill of

forecast, quality and relevance of advisories, problem solving by interactive mode,

answering questions of common interest through bulletins, accessibility to


• ASCs may communicate local level observation (Meteorological, Crop, Soil,

Pest/Disease, Sowing, Harvesting and Other prevailing intercultural operations) to

the knowledge pool for generating relevant and specific advisories.

• The training needs of end-users and of the various intermediaries that provide them

with advisory services should be assessed and training may also be planned for the

farmers on use of agro-met advisories in farm management through DADOs.


• We must consider how diverse types of agrometeorological data be integrated into

useful information that responds to the often-dissimilar application needs of farming

communities.

• Assess the types of information needed by diverse groups of end-users and, given

their different farming, socio-economic and cultural systems, find out the

appropriate communication technologies to reach them

• Package of agrometeorological advice should include

• Pesticides application – prediction of pests and diseases incidence /chance of

epidemic occurrence, when to apply, prepone/ postponing application based on

sensitive weather elements.

• Fertilizer application – when to apply i.e. pre-poning/ postponing application based

on sensitive weather elements.

• Application of Irrigation – when and how much to apply i.e. pre-poning /post-

poning application based on past weather as well as weather forecast.

• Date of sowing

• Date of harvest

• Incidence of cold / heat waves

• Incidence of frost and fog

• Incidence of agricultural drought

• Contingent crop planning

• Selection of cultivars

5.3.7 Proposed District Level Agrometeorology Advisory Service

District level agrometeorology advisory service does not exist in Nepal. District level

institutions along with their service centers are the main executing bodies of developmental

works in Nepal. Agricultural advice and information to the farmers are transferred through

different media and techniques by these institutions. It is proposed that DADO be equipped

with Agrometeorological Advisory Unit (AMU). AMU receives district wise agro-met data

through DHM field stations and NARC/DOA stations within the district. Furthermore, AMU

receives district wise medium range weather forecast by DHM Meteorology Division. The

unit then analyses and interprets so collected weather and meteorological information and

prepares district specific advisories. The package of these advisories shall then be

disseminated through different mass media, ICT and word of mouth communication.

Farmers feedback will be regularly entertained and taken into consideration while preparing

district specific advisories. The proposed model is presented in Figure: 3

5.3.8 Proposed organizational set up for AAS

i. AAS Steering Committee Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives- Chairman

Secretary, Ministry of Environment- Member

Secretary, Ministry of Science and Technology- Member

Executive Director, NARC- Member

Joint Secretary, Gender Equity and Environment Division- Member Secretary

Nepal 145

ii. Central AAS Implementation Committee

Program Director, AED, DOA- Coordinator

Division Chief, Meteorology Division, DHM- Member

Division Chief, NARC Environment Division- Member

Section Chief, AAS Unit, AED- Member Secretary

iii. District AAS implementation Committee District Agriculture Development Officer- Coordinator

Chief, DHM Weather Station- Member

Chief, NARC Research Station- Member

Chief, DOA Farm Center- Member

District AAS Unit Chief (Aronomist/Plant Protection Officer)- Member Secretary

District Agriculture Development

Office

Agriculture Service Centers

Dissemination of Agro-met Advisories

Feedback Analysis

NARC/DOA Stations within

district

Preparation of district specific advisories: Agro-met unit of

DADO

Farmers Groups/Farmers

through mass media, ICT, personal contact

DHM Field Stations within

district

Preparation of District wise Medium Range Weather

Forecast by DHM Meteorology Division

Department of Hydrology and Meteorology

District wise Agro-met Data

Figure 3: Proposed District Level Agrometeorology Advisory Service


5.3.9 Recommendations

i. Establish an effective and efficient Agrometeorology Advisory Service Unit at

National and District level within the extension service delivery mechanism of

Nepal.

ii. Formation of AAS Steering Committee under the chairmanship of Secretary,

Ministry of Agriculture and Cooeratives to coordinate and decide about policy issues

in AAS.

iii. Use of decision-support systems should be promoted as an effective means of

providing output of integrated climate-agronomic information

iv. Research into the introduction of new scientific-based weather and climate forecast

services, which provide accurate and reliable outlooks into the local indigenous

cultural traditions in many poor rural areas;

v. Increased attention to facilitate access by the rural poor to technical expertise and

technological innovations; Development of agrometeorological products with an

emphasis on local user communities.

vi. Development of capacity building of persons involved in agromet service and

farmers as well.

vii. Application of remote sensing techniques for AAS andOexploitation of rapid

innovation of technologies for the benefit of agromet service.

viii. Development of crop weather models for AAS.

ix. Generation of advisories for different areas- Horticulture, Crops, Livestock,

Fisheries, Post Harvest and Storage.

x. Exchange of data and Agricultural Meteorological knowledge between member

countries and also the Inter-Regional exchange of these materials.

xi. Use of Meteorological forecasts and short- and long-term Agricultural

Meteorological recommendations should be included in specialized bulletins for

further notice.

5.3.10 References

APN-QCR 2006. International Workshop on coping with Agrometeorological Risks and

Uncertainties: Challenges and Opportunities, Final Report submitted to APN, pp 12

Climate and Hydrological Atlas of Nepal, www.icimod.org

Climate change mitigation and adaptation in agriculture, forestry and fisheries,

ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/009/j9271e/j9271e.pdf

Climate information for adaptation and development needs, World Meteorological

Organization, 2007

Climate Risk Management in Nepal, www.fao.org/climatechange

Dr. Steve Jennings John Magrath, October 2009, What Happened to the Seasons?, OXFAM

Research Report

Nepal 147

Eakin, H. 2000, Seasonal climate forecasting and the relevance of local knowledge. Physical

Geography

Exchanging Meteorological Data, Guidelines on Relationships in Commercial

Meteorological Activities, WMO Policy and Practice, World Meteorological

Organization - Geneva- Switzerland, 1996

Filippo Giorgi, Colin Jones andGhassem R.Asrar, Addressing Climate Information Needs at

the Regional Level: The COEDEX Framework, WMO Bulletin 58(3) July 2009

IPCC, 2001. Climate change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Inter-

Governmental Panel on Climate Change. Report of the Working Group II.

Cambridge, UK, p 967.

L.S. RATHORE AND C.J. STIGTER, Challenges To Coping Strategies With

Agrometeorological Risks And Uncertainties In Asian Regions

Lal, M., Nozawa, T., Emori, S., Harasawa, H., Takahashi, K., Kimoto, M., Abe-Ouchi, A.,

Nakajima, T., Takemura, T. and Numaguti, A. 2001. Future Climate Change:

Implications for Indian Summer Monsoon and its Variability. Current Sci., 81: pp

1196-1207.

Malla, G. 2008. Climate Change and its Impact on Nepalese Agriculture. The Journal of

Agriculture and Environment. Volume 9, pp 62-71.

N. Chattopadhyay, Agrometeorological Service in India and Associated RA Countries

Official website of Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, www.dhm.gov.np

Roger E. Rivero Vega, April 2008, Workbook on Climate Change Impact Assessment in

Agriculture, Report of the Chairman of Working Group on Agricultural

Meteorology of RA II, 5-11 December 2008, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Sukardi, W. 1998 The Meteorological Meaning of Traditional Time Reckoning: Wariga and

its Applications. Journal Agromet. XIII(1), pp.15-24. Indonesian Association of

Agricultural Meteorology.

Watson, R.T., Zinyowera, M.C. and Moss, R.H. (Eds). 1998. The Regional Impacts of

Climate Change. An Assessment of Vulnerability. IPCC II Report. Cambridge

University Press, pp 517

Weiss, L., Van Crowder, M., Bernardi 1999. Communicating Agrometeorological

Information, Sustainable Development Department. www.fao.org


Appendix 1: Synoptic Meteorological Stations, Nepal

Nepal 149

Appendix 2 : Morning Weather Forecast


Appendix 3: 24 Hour Weather Forecast

Nepal 151

Appendix 4: Weather Bulletin


Appendix 5: Weather Forecast for Mountaineering Expedition

Nepal 153

Appendix 6: Preliminary Weather Summary

Nepal 155

Nepal 157

Appendix 7: Normal (Average) Maximum, Minimum Temperature (°C) and Rainfall

(mm) through 2000 year

Dr. Muhammad Asim

Pakistan Agricultural Research Council

Islamabad, Pakistan

5.4 PAKISTAN

Pakistan 161

5.4.1 Introduction

The Islamic Republic of Pakistan covers 79.61 million hectares (ha) geographical area

situated between latitude of 24 and 37 degree North and longitude of 62 and 75 degree East.

The country exhibited a great variation in its landscape from Indus plains to deserts, from

forests to Salt range and Potohar Plateau, from the western bordering highlands to

Balochistan Plateau, from the northern high mountain ranges and snow-covered peaks to the

coastal areas of the Arabian Sea in the south.

Pakistan is a land of great topographic and climatic contrasts. Low rainfall and extreme

variations in temperature characterize the climate in Pakistan. About 60 per cent of the total

land area is classified as arid, which receives less than 200 mm annual rainfall. The southern

slopes of the Himalayas and the sub mountainous tract receive higher rainfall from 760 to

1270 mm. Some areas adjoining Kashmir receive more than 2000 mm precipitation per

annum. The temperatures can be as low as -27° Celsius in the north (at Skardu) in winter and

as high as 52° Celsius in the southern parts during summer.

Pakistan is basically an agricultural country and its economy mainly revolves around this

sector. Though, the share of agriculture in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been

declining, it still accounted for 21.8 percent (%) of GDP during 2008-09. Despite its

declining share it remains the single largest sector of Pakistan’s economy and an

overwhelming majority of the population (Table 1) depends directly or indirectly on income

streams generated by the agriculture sector. Rural areas in the country are home to around 65

percent of its population (Table 1) and agriculture is their principal livelihood, employing

over 60 percent of the labor force.

Table 1: Population distribution by Rural / Urban areas

Year Rural Areas Urban Areas Estimated Population (million)

1999 91.94 44.47 136.41

2000 93.75 45.66 139.41

2001 95.52 46.83 142.35

2002 97.27 48.02 145.28

2003 99.00 49.21 148.21

2004 100.30 50.80 151.09

2005 101.55 52.41 153.96

2006 102.75 54.02 156.77

2007 103.91 55.66 159.57

2008 105.06 57.32 162.37

(Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2008-09)

The Green Revolution during the last century substantially increased food grain productivity,

and improved food security and rural wages. The challenge is to replicate and sustain these

achievements during the future with a more variable and unpredictable climate.

In Pakistan, like in many other regions, climatic conditions are highly variable and climate

can be one of the known biggest risks factors impacting on agricultural system’s

performance and management. Climate change has started to measurably affect agricultural

production. There is enormous year-to-year climate variability, in terms of seasonal and in-

season temperature and rainfall variability. Elevated temperatures and drought are among the


biggest issues in agriculture. Occurrence of these climatic events represents the risk that

existing agricultural activity may not be sustainable, given spatial and temporal variations in

rainfall and other climatic conditions.

5.4.2 Climate and Crop Productivity

5.4.2.1 Crop Situation

There are two principal crop seasons in Pakistan. One as summer, which is locally called as

kharif season starting from June and extended until September and other as winter, locally

known as rabi season, the duration of which is from October to May. Rice, sugarcane,

cotton, maize, mong, mash, bajra and jowar are important “Kharif" crops while wheat, gram,

lentil (masoor), tobacco, rapeseed, barley and mustard are main "Rabi" crops. Major crops,

such as, wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane account for 89.1 percent of the value added in the

major crops. The value added in major crops accounts for 33.4 percent of the value added in

overall agriculture. Thus, the four major crops (wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane), on

average, contribute 29.8 percent to the value added in overall agriculture and 6.5 percent to

GDP. The minor crops account for 12.0 percent of the value added in overall agriculture.

Livestock contributes 51.8 percent to agricultural value added – much more than the

combined contribution of major and minor crops (45.4%) (Anonymous, 2009).

5.4.2.2 Climate and Crop Productivity: A Case Study on Wheat in Rainfed

Area

5.4.2.2.1 Rainfall Pattern Over Time in Rainfed Area

In Pakistan, wheat is the most important crop being the staple diet and is cultivated on the

largest acreages (8.5 million hectares) among cereals in almost every part of the country. It

contributes 13.1 percent to the value added in agriculture and 2.8 percent to GDP

(Anonymous, 2009).

Over the past three decades, increased wheat productivity occurred largely due to the

development of high-yielding cultivars and increased fertilizer use (Curtis, 2002). With the

introduction of semi-dwarf wheat cultivars, wheat productivity has been increased in all the

major cropping systems of rainfed and irrigated areas, representing the diverse and varying

agro-ecological suitable conditions (Aslam et al., 1989). However, in a given environment,

wheat growth, development and yield depend on suitable cultivars (Grausgruber et al.,

2000), management practices and weather conditions (Anda and Antons, 2004).

In Pakistan, wheat is sown over a wide range of sowing date in various cropping systems of

rainfed and irrigated areas. This variation in sowing time is caused by various factors such as

erratic rainfall, late planting due to harvesting of preceding crop, lack or unavailability of

farm machinery and inputs, etc. The sowing window of wheat in Pakistan generally starts

from mid of October and extends until the end of December. Delayed planting reduces wheat

yield almost linearly at the rate of 42 kg/ha/day after optimum sowing time generally quoted

as 10th November (Khan, 2003).

Pakistan 163

Two distinct rainfall patterns are observed in rainfed areas of Islamabad (Figure 1). The

analysis of long term rainfall data revealed that in the rainfed area of Islamabad, about 60 %

rainfall occurred during summer and 40 % during winter season (Figure 1). Analysis also

revealed that the long-term rainfall pattern are showing increasing trends in case of

occurrence of summer rainfall in rainfed areas whereas, it showed a slight decreasing trend

in winter rainfall over this period of 47 years. During summer period it is observed that

rainfall intensity in the month of July has increased overtime whereas, the month of

September has shown a decrease in rainfall intensity. This September rainfall decrease is of

great concern as it could provide better residual moisture for sowing of wheat during

October (Figure 2).

Figure 1. Long term rainfall pattern in Islamabad over time (1961-2007). Actual rainfall data

was plotted in an aggregated polynomial format, aggregated over a span of 3 years

and each data point with a range bar.

Figure 2. Long term rainfall pattern in Islamabad during the months of July, August and

September from 1961-2007. Actual rainfall data was plotted in an aggregated

polynomial format, aggregated over a span of 3 years.


5.4.2.2.2 Wheat and Climate Variability

The weak monsoon during the entire month of September left much of the wheat region with

inadequate soil moisture and dry conditions in rainfed areas. Very low precipitation has also

been observed in most wheat growing areas during the sowing and establishment period of

mid-October to mid-December, and dryness continued through January. This variability in

rainfall during the crop duration from sowing to harvesting resulted in variable yield as the

crop is exposed to erratic climatic conditions. To improve climate risk related decision

making at the farm level, farmers need to gain a better understanding of the climate factors

that affect crop yield in their environment (Table 2). This will allow decision makers to

identify possible management options based on climate information or seasonal climate

forecasts.

Table 2: Wheat: as affected by changes in weather

Cropping Year Yield (kg/ha) % change Climate Events

1999 1319 -25 Drought

2000 534 -70 Drought + Terminal heat stress

2001 717 -59 Drought +Terminal heat stress

2002 1310 -25 Drought

2003 1321 -25 Terminal heat stress

2004 1730 -1 -

2005 1354 -23 Terminal heat stress

2006 1755 = Bumper Crop Year

2007 1205 -31 Frost + Terminal heat stress

2008 1465 -17 -

5.4.2.2.3 Effective Climate Risk Management

Understanding climatic variability is one of the many risk management tools that play an

important role in agricultural decision making. An appropriate approach is to engage all the

stakeholders in well-informed negotiations so that the farmers, the primary producers, can

be educated and encouraged to adopt self-reliant approaches in managing the risks

associated with climatic variability.

Current pattern of climate change (floods, drought, temperature increase / change during

critical crop growth stages, etc.) increases the urgency for implementing measures that are

needed to ignite agricultural growth in the country with major emphasis on following areas:

• Enhancing resilience in agriculture through research on and dissemination of

innovative production technologies and management options

• Use of biotechnology in developing new, more resilient crop varieties, and

• Provision of better climate information through improved forecasting and early

warning systems

Climate can be understood most easily in terms of annual or seasonal averages of

temperature and precipitation etc. From a risk management perspective we need to

understand existing climate variability.

Pakistan 165

There is enormous year-to-year climate variability (Figure 3, 4, 5 and 6) which is a major

source of wheat production variability (Table 1). So, the effective Climate Risk Management

requires an understanding of management options in response to climate information.

The Southern Oscillation (SO) is one of the known most important influence on rainfall

variability between years. It has a strong influence on rainfall particularly in monsoon. SO is

a see-saw of air pressure between the eastern and western Pacific and its strength is

measured as an index known as Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which reflects the

difference in atmospheric pressure between Darwin and Tahiti. The phases of the SOI were

defined by Stone et al. (1996), who used cluster analysis to group two-month pairs of the

Figure 3. Long term mean temperature pattern in Islamabad during the wheat growing

season (October – April) 1961-2007.

Figure 4. Recent temperature variability during wheat growing season (October – April) in

Islamabad region.

Mean Seasonal (Oct-Apr) Temperature

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

1961-62 1966-67 1971-72 1976-77 1981-82 1986-87 1991-92 1996-97 2001-02 2006-07

Temperature (C)

I sl a ma ba d

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

October November December Januar y Febr uar y Mar ch Apr i l

Normals 2006-07 2007-08


Seasonal (Oct-Apr) Rainfall

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1961-62 1966-67 1971-72 1976-77 1981-82 1986-87 1991-92 1996-97 2001-02 2006-07

Rainfall (mm)

Figure 5. Long term rainfall pattern in Islamabad region during the wheat growing season

(October – April) 1961-2007.

Islamabad

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

October November December January February March April

Rainfa

ll (m

m)

Normals 2006-07 2007-08

Figure 6. Recent rainfall variability during wheat growing season (October – April) in

Islamabad region.

Pakistan 167

Figure 7. Five phases of SOI as defined by Stones et al. 1996

SOI from 1882 to 1991 into five clusters as phases (Figure 7). The phases are:

Phase 1 consistently negative,

Phase 2 consistently positive,

Phase 3 falling,

Phase 4 rising,

Phase 5 consistently near zero.

Relationship was examined between rainfall variability in Islamabad region during October-

November (wheat crop establishment period) and monthly SOI phase in July. Analysis was

done using actual rainfall during 1961-2008. The analysis revealed that Islamabad zone has

44% and 35% possibility of exceeding median rainfall with consistently near zero and

consistently negative SOI phases, respectively during July (Figure 8).


5.4.2.2.3.1 Understanding Climate Variability to Sustain Wheat Productivity

Understanding climatic variability is one of many risk management tools that play an

important role in agricultural decision making. Understanding when, where and how to use

this tools is a complex and multi-dimensional problem.

Figure 8. Relationship between rainfall variability during October-November and monthly

SOI phase in July. The horizontal line indicated median rainfall for that period.

Effective climate risk management also requires an understanding of management options in

response to climate information. To do this effectively an appropriate approach, that brings

together disciplines like climate science and agricultural systems science, is applied. In this

approach climate science provides an insight into climatic processes while agricultural

systems science translates this insight into management options. This tool can be used

successfully to understand crop bio-dynamism, climate and cop management simultaneously

in a given environment.

5.4.2.2.3.1.1 Use of Crop Simulation Models: An appropriate tool to understand Crop

systems in relation to Climate

Crop growth simulation models have emerged as a valuable tool for enhancing our

understanding of crop ecology and physiology In this case study, the parameterized

Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) (McCown et al., 1996) wheat module

(Table 3) was used as a tool for selecting optimum sowing time and cultivar to enhance the

resilience in wheat based cropping system of the area against climatic variability.

Phase 5 Phase 1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Rainfall (m

m)

Pakistan 169

Table 3. Performance of Parameterized APSIM-Wheat module under local conditions for

Grain Yield (kg ha-1)

Cultivar /

Advance

Line

Measured Simulated

Bias t Regression

Equation r2

Mean SD Mean SD

Wafaq-2001 3245 485 3177 444 -68 -0.36 S=0.88M+324.3 0.92

Chakwal-97 3056 542 3017 464 -39 -0.19 S=0.83M+473.5 0.94

NR-55 2729 466 2729 483 0.2 0.001 S=1.02M-61.73 0.98

NR-232 3062 524 3067 462 5 0.02 S=0.83M+528.5 0.88

Margalla-99 2938 559 3067 455 129 0.54 S=0.69M+1028 0.73

The significance of similar exercise has been reported by Aggarwal et al. (1994), Hunt et al.

(1996), Meinke et al. (1997, 2001) and many others. The APSIM model was used to analyze

the impact of SOI phases on wheat yield of various genotypes (Figure 9) and sowing time

(Figure 10) for selecting suitable genotype and optimum sowing time for Islamabad area.

The simulation analysis regarding partitioning of wheat yield using SOI phases showed that

sowing after mid November was vulnerable to climatic fluctuations governed by SOI phase

in July. It was mainly due to probability of occurrence of rainfall at the growth stage of crop

establishment. It predicted that rainfall received in relation to crop phenological stage is

efficiently utilized compared to other sowing windows in SOI phase 3 (Figure 11). The

simulation studies clearly depicted that the yield increased to about 1 t/h with the SOI phase

3 during July as compared to phase 5 during the same month. The simulation results also

showed that prevalence of SOI phase 2 and 3 explains less yield depressions in all varieties

under study in rainfed areas compare to other patterns of SOI phases. This type of

knowledge may be used to decide for the sowing of wheat if information about these phases

is known prior to start of wheat sowing in the area.

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

1 2 3 4 5SOI Phases

Yield (t/ha)

W C N5 N2 N4 M

Figure 9. Simulated wheat yield of various genotypes over years (1961-2008) for Islamabad

partitioned against July SOI phases.


Figure 10. Simulated Yield of Chakwal – 97 (1961-2008) over sowing time partitioned

against the prevailing SOI phase in July.

Figure 11. Wheat Growth Stages, Degree Days and Rainfall (avg. 1961-08)

Pakistan 171

In these studies, there has been considerable progress made in the field of using seasonal

climate forecasting and the use of this skill in selecting optimum sowing time and suitable

cultivar coupled with crop simulation models.

5.4.3 Existing Weather Forecasting System

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) is responsible to provide meteorological

expertise and professional services to the development of agricultural sector in the country

through its weather forecasting mechanism. The department is in charge to deliver quality

forecast, warning and advisory services.

PMD is both a scientific and a service department, responsible for providing meteorological

service throughout Pakistan. Apart from Meteorology, the department is also concerned with

Agro-meteorology.

The department has established:

A network of observing stations to generate meteorological and geophysical data.

A telecommunication system for speedy dissemination of data

Meteorological offices to analyze data for issuing forecasts and warnings for

agriculture, and irrigation etc.

Climatological and data processing units for scrutinizing, comparing and publishing

data for appraisal of long term weather trends and earthquakes.

Research & Development (R&D) Division to carry out research activities regarding

analysis of extreme events observed in the past and their future trend, climate

change, weather modification, land-ocean-atmosphere interaction, seasonal weather

prediction and etc.

PMD at the time of its establishment in 1947 inherited only 15 Meteorological Observatories

(MO) from the Central Meteorological Organization (CMO) then operating in the Subcontinent.

With continuous efforts, PMD has improved its weather forecasting capabilities in the country.

Improvements in the forecasting capabilities were achieved by expanding the network of

meteorological observatories (Figure 12 and Table 4), developing methods of observation,

improving telecommunication facilities and forecasting techniques. PMD extends its

meteorological services through dissemination of relevant information not only through its

various publications / reports and regional offices but also through print and electronic media.


Figure 12: Network of Met Observing Stations in Pakistan

(Source: Pakistan Meteorological Department)

Pakistan 173

Table 4. PMD Observatories at District / Tehsil / Agencies Level

Punjab NWFP Sindh Balochistan Azad

Kashmir

Northern

Areas

Chhor

(PBO)

Panjgur

(PBO)

Skardu

(PBO)

Bahawal Nagar Balakot Hyderabad

(PBO)

Pasni

(PBO)

Garidopatta Skardu

(A/P)

Bahawal Pur Cherat Jacobabad

(PBO)

Gwader

(PBO)

Kotli Bunji

Bahawal Pur

(A/P)

Chitral S K.A.P.

(MO)

Lasbella

(MO)

Rawlakot Gilgit

(PBO)

Faisalabad D.I.Khan

(PBO)

Nawabshah

(PBO)

Turbat

(AM)

Muzaffarabad

(PBO)

Astore

Jhelum D.I.Khan

(Aeromet)

Badin

(PBO)

Ormara

(AM)

Muzaffarabad

(Aeromet)

Chilas

Khanpur Dir Larkana

(PBO)

Jiwani

(PBO)

Gupis

Lahore (A/P). Drosh Padidan

(MO)

Babusar

Lahore (PBO). Kakul Rohri

(MO)

Multan Parachinar

(PBO)

Moen-jo-

daro (AM)

Mandibahauddin Parachinar

(Aeromet)

Sukkur

(AM)

Sialkot Saidu

Sharif

(Aeromet

Obsy)

Karachi,

Marine

Met.

Keemari.

D.G. Khan Saidu

Sharif

(MO)

Mithi (MO)

D.G. Khan

(Aeromet)

Kalam Tandojam

(AM)

Jhang Malam

Jabba

Mangla Mir Khani

Rahim Yar

Khan

Bannu

In addition to this, nine observatories also exist in Balochistan which are under the control of

Geophysical Centre, Quetta. These observatories are; Pilot Baloon Observatory (at


Shekhmanda, Quetta; Kalat; Khuzdar; Zhob; Barkhan, Dalbandin; and Nokhundi), Regional

Agro-Met Centre at Quetta, and Meteorological Observatory at Sibbi.

Legends:

P.B.O = Pilot Baloon Observatory

A.M. = Aeromet Observatory

M.O. = Meteorological Observatory)

Pakistan is basically an agricultural country. In order to boost up agricultural productivity,

there are still a number of areas in the agromet field where research activities are needed to

be undertaken. For example;

� Studying and quantifying the impact of Climate Change on:

o agriculture/crop production in Pakistan

o water resources in Pakistan

� Drought monitoring and the development of early warning and prediction models.

� To enhance the resilience in various cropping systems of the country based on

climate considerations, climate forecasts through better and improved Decision

Support System (DSS) regarding:

o the crops sowing dates in different areas

o the selection of suitable genotype o the selection of suitable crop type.

Obviously, there are challenges that we face and will encounter more as were move forward.

In order to meet the present and future challenges, PMD placed a team of scientists under the

umbrella of R&D Division to work mainly with the objective to provide expertise and

advisory services to the planners and policy-makers in addressing emerging problems

relating to Climate Change agriculture, assessment of available water resources and their

effective/optimum utilization, flood control and environmental hazards.

The Research and Development division of PMD is carrying out various modeling activities

for attaining a purposeful forecast. The major activities include:

5.4.3.1 Numerical modeling

Numerical modeling is the process of obtaining an objective forecast of the future state of

the atmosphere by solving a set of equations that describe the evolution of variables

(temperature, wind speed, humidity, pressure) that define the state of the atmosphere.

5.4.3.2 Regional Climate Model

PMD is using the PRECIS regional climate modeling system developed by Hadley Centre of

Meteorological Service, United Kingdom and RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model version 3)

of ICTP, Trieste, Italy, for developing climate scenarios, climate predictions, land use / land

cover climate impact and for climate and climate change related research.

Pakistan 175

5.4.3.3 Numerical Weather Forecasting Systems

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) is using Mesoscale Model version5 (MM5) for

numerical weather forecasting and is also preparing to use the High Resolution Model

(HRM) with a grid length of 7km in near future. The HRM is developed by DWD (National

Meteorological Service of Germany). The models have been installed at Research &

Development Division of PMD.

5.4.4 Existing Agromet Advisory Systems

5.4.4.1 Agromet Centres in Pakistan

Pakistan, being an Agricultural country, requires sufficient and accurate agromet data. Keeping

in view this responsibility, a National Agromet Centre at Islamabad and four Regional Agromet

Centres at Quetta, Tandojam, Faisalabad and Rawalpindi were set up. These are fully functional

now.

Apart from these Centres, a forecasting office for agriculturists has also been established at

Islamabad. This Centre named, National Agromet Centre (NAMC) issues necessary forecasts

for the benefit of farmers and other related agencies. Main objective/functions of National and

Regional Agromet Centres are described as under

5.4.4.1.1 National Agromet Centre (NAMC), Islamabad.

The main responsibilities of the centre are :

� To develop coordination and liaison with national authorities of agriculture and water sector

� To regularly publish “Monthly Agromet Bulletin of Pakistan” for farming community.

o This bulletin is published by the 5th day of each month and has two portions;

one is in English language and the other is in Urdu language.

o More than 70 recipients are receiving this bulletin throughout the country from

various disciplines of agriculture.

� To compile research work on crop-weather relationship on regional basis for its

publication as well as dissemination to agriculture authorities.

� To establish agrometeorological data base for different agroclimatic zones of Pakistan.

NAMC shares the research responsibilities on national level. Progressive work on water

requirement of major and minor crops, crop and animal diseases and analysis for climatic soil

moisture stress conditions is an integral part of research at this centre. Agromet computer data

processing for different agromet activities is an additional duty of this centre.

5.4.4.1.2 Regional Agromet Centres

The regional centres are located in four districts namely; Rawalpindi, Faislabad, Quetta and

Tandojam. These centres are responsible for:

� Preparation of crop reports in relation to prevailing weather conditions on regional level


is the main responsibility of RAMCs. On the basis of these reports for several years,

agrometeorological crop modeling work is in progress for major crops of different

regions.

� RAMCs perform research in collaboration with agricultural scientists of the region on

common and important issues. They actively participate infield research and provide

processed data, as and when required in research investigations.

� Transmit regional information on crops and animals to national focal point NAMC,

Islamabad. Prepare and disseminate agromet advisory for farmers of the region in

consultation with local agriculture authorities.

� Technically assist in establishing new agromet observing station when required. Perform

calibration and maintenance of agromet instruments installed. RAMCs are responsible to trim

technical main power of local agricultural related personnel and involved in agromet work.

5.4.5 Existing Agromet Advisory Dissemination Mechanism

Agromet service is in operation since 1988 with a National Agromet Centre, (NAMC) at

Islamabad and Regional Agromet Centres (RAMCs).

The PMD provides the information in the form of current, 10-day and monthly Agromet

Bulletins, Pakistan Weather Outlook etc. from NAMC.

5.4.5.1 National Weather for Next 24 Hours

In the form of a ‘weather outlook’ this forecast contains information regarding expected

weather conditions and temperatures in following 25 districts / tehsils of Pakistan.

Table 5. Regions for which 24 hours forecast issued

PUNJAB SINDH NWFP Balochistan

Bahawalnagar Hyderabad Abbotabad Gawadar

Bahawalpur Jacobabad Bannu Khuzdar

D. G. Khan Karachi D. I. Khan Quetta

Faisalabad Larkana Gilgit Sibbi

Gujranwala Nawabshah Kalat Zhob

Islamabad Kohat Ziarat

Jiwani Mardan

Jhelum Peshawar

Lahore Parachinar

Mandi-Bahaudin Skardu

Mianwali Turbat

Multan

Murree

Rawalpindi

Sargodha

Sialkot

Pakistan 177

The weather forecast for next 24 hours contains information like

WEATHER IN LAST 24 HRS:

Weather remained dry in most parts of the country.

OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HRS:

Dry weather expected in most parts of the country.

SYNOPTIC SITUATION/OUTLOOK:

Continental air is likely to prevail in most parts of the country during next few days.

PUNJAB INCLUDING ISLAMABAD:

Dry weather is expected in most parts of the province during next few days. Whereas day

temperatures likely to remain above normal in plain areas of the Punjab during next few

days.

NWFP:

Dry weather is expected in most parts of the province during next few days.

SINDH:

Dry weather expected in most parts of the province during next few days. Whereas day

temperatures likely to remain above normal in most parts of Sindh during next few days.

BALOCHISTAN:

Dry weather expected in most parts of the province during next few days. Whereas day

temperatures likely to remain above normal in coastal and central parts during next few days.

KASHMIR & GILGIT-BALTISTAN:

Dry weather is expected in the above mentioned area during next few days.

5.4.5.2 Four Days Forecast

PMD issues a four days forecast regarding precipitation for 50 major districts / tehsils /

regions of the country just showing the expected weather as below:.

Thunderstorm-Rain

Partly Cloudy

Sunny


5.4.5.3 Weekly Forecast

A weekly forecast is prepared for 17 districts / tehsils / regions of Punjab, 10 of NWFP, 13

of Balochistan, 13 Sindh, and 3 of Northern Areas and Azad Kashmir each. The information

presented in this forecast is regarding precipitation, temperature, dew point, humidity etc.

The list of the region / areas covered in this forecast is given in table 6.

Table 6. Regions covered under weekly forecast

PUNJAB SINDH NWFP Balochistan

Bahawalnagar Hyderabad Abbotabad Gawadar

Bahawalpur Jacobabad Bannu Khuzdar

D. G. Khan Karachi D. I. Khan Quetta

Faisalabad Larkana Kohat Sibi

Gujranwala Nawabshah Peshawar Zhob

Islamabad Mohenjodaro Chitral Ziarat

Okara Sukkar Saidusharif Kalat

Jhelum Thatta Miranshah Ormara

Lahore Badin Wana Dalbandin

Rahim Yar Khan Mithi Balakot Nokkundi

Mianwali Port Qasim Panjgur

Multan Keti Bandar Pasni

Murree Hawksbay Jiwani

Sargodha

Khanpur

Khanewal

Vehari

5.4.5.4 Agro-meteorological Advisory Bulletin

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) issues a 10 days Agromet Bulletin which

contains information as presented in table 7 below and appendix 1:

Table 7. Agro-meteorological Advisory Bulletin

Information about: Description

Past weather Know about any weather induced crop damages

Forecast Keep your self updated about coming weather to schedule

on-farm activities

Crop reports Get insight to performance of standing crops

Crop water requirements Know about water requirement of your crop

Soil Moisture Know any potential risk of moisture stress to crop

Pakistan 179

5.4.5.5 Monthly Agro-Met Bulletin

Agromet Bulletin is prepared on the basis of data from 18 stations representing major

agricultural areas of Pakistan selected in consultation with Agriculture authorities. This bulletin

is updated during first week of each month, having information about temperature, solar

radiations and moisture conditions which can be used by researchers of various disciplines. It

also contains valuable additional information such as monthly evapotranspiration, crop report /

conditions and expected weather conditions during the next month.

The information generated from following PMD stations are included in this bulletin:

Peshawar, D.I.Khan, Kamra, Rawalpindi, Jhelum, Sargodha, Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan,

Khanpur, Quetta, Rohri and Tandojam.

5.4.5.6 System of Dissemination of Agromet Data

In Pakistan, until early 1960’s, agricultural information was disseminated mainly through

extension workers by holding meetings, field days, demonstrations and melas (fairs).

In Pakistan, radio has played a significant role in bringing awareness and technological changes

particularly in rural population through its various special programmes. These programmes

were introduced in Radio Pakistan in December 1966 from its Peshawar, Lahore and

Hyderabad stations daily for 30 minutes duration in the evening. These various programmes

under different titles were warmly welcomed by the rural community. Later on these

programmes were also started from the remaining stations. Now almost all stations of Radio

Pakistan transmit agricultural programmes from 15 o 60 minutes duration daily in one or two

segments in consultation and active collaboration with the provincial agricultural departments.

These programmes and events were useful but lack in providing the information to the farming

community to enable them to cope with the climate variability.

In the current century, with the changing agricultural practices and increased awareness

regarding role of climate in agriculture, the information generated by PMD are released and

disseminated to the farming community in the form of ‘Farmers Bulletins’ which are provided

to all the regional broadcasting stations and newspapers. The information to the press /

information Medias are also provided through telephone / fax. National forecast is also

presented through electronic media.

5.4.6 Conclusion

In Pakistan, general but non-specific climate information for the agricultural sector is available

for producers from a range of sources. Information providers and users are often either ignorant

of the possible consequences of a certain climatic outcome or unable to quantify its effect.

While general information is somewhat useful and of interest, it usually stops short of providing

the level of details needed in order to affect management decisions. To improve climate risk

related decision making at the farm level, farmers need to gain a better understanding of the

climate factors that affect crop yield in their environment. This will allow decision makers to

identify possible management options based on climate information or seasonal climate

forecasts.


Use of seasonal climate forecasting can help to enhance the resilience in various cropping

systems. However, to further improve financial profitability, economic efficiency and resource

risk management, well-targeted case studies should address the following objectives:

• Quantify relationships between SOI phases (using the phenomena of El Nino Southern

Oscillation, ENSO) and rainfall, crop yields and income;

• Identify promising management strategies in existing cropping systems via simulation

analysis using seasonal climate forecasts and climate variability information;

• Quantify the impact of using climate knowledge in economic and social terms;

• Provide a methodology for objective evaluation of policy consequences.

For successful climate applications, there is a need for effective collaboration and

communication. It requires to engage in participatory, cross-disciplinary research that brings

together institutions (partnerships), disciplines (eg. climate science, agricultural systems science,

sociology and many other disciplines), people (scientists, policy makers, farmers and

agribusiness representatives) and institutions as equal partners to gain maximum benefit from

agricultural systems and climate research. Most importantly, the concept that has proven

valuable to reduce vulnerability in agricultural systems is applicable for other crops exposed to

climate induced risks.

5.4.7 References

Aggarwal, P. K. and N. Kalra. 1994. Analyzing the limitations set by climatic factors, genotype,

water and nitrogen availability on productivity of wheat II. Climatically potential yields

and management strategies. Field Crops Res. 38: 93-103.

Anda, L. and R. Antons. 2004. Variety and environment effects on quality traits in Latvian -

grown winter wheat. In: New directions for a diverse planet: Proceedings for the 4th

International Crop Science Congress, (Eds. Fischer et al.) Brisbane, Australia, 26

September - 1 October, 2004.

Anonymous. 2009. Economic Survey of Pakistan. Planning Commission of Pakistan. Ministry of

Finance. Government of Pakistan.

Aslam, M., A. Majid, P. R. Hobbs, N. I. Hashmi and D. Byerlee. 1989. Wheat in Rice – Wheat

cropping system of the Punjab: a synthesis of on – farm research results 1984 – 1988.

PARC/CIMMYT Paper No. 89 – 3. Islamabad, Pakistan Agricultural Research Council.

Curtis, B. C. 2002. Wheat in the world. In: Bread Wheat Improvement and Production (Eds. B.

C. Curtis, S. Rajaram and H. Gómez Macpherson). Food and Agriculture Organization

of the United Nations. Rome, Italy. Pp. 1 – 17.

Grausgruber, H., Oberforster, M., Werteker, M., Ruckenbauer, P. and Vollmann, J. 2000.

Stability of quality traits in Austrian - grown winter wheats. Field Crops Res., 66: 257-

267.

Hunt, L. A., S. Pararajasingham and J. V. Wiersma. 1996. Effects of planting date on the

development and yield of spring wheat: simulation of field data. Can. J. Plant Sci., 76:

51-58.

Pakistan 181

Khan, M, A. 2003. Wheat Crop Management for Yield Maximization. Wheat research Institute,

Faisalabad, Pakistan. pp. 1-94.

McCown, R. L., G. L. Hammer, J. N. G. Hargreaves, D. P. Holzworth, and D. M. Freebairn.

1996. APSIM: a novel software system for model development, model testing and

simulation in agricultural systems research. Agricultural Systems 50: 255 – 271.

Meinke, H., G. L. Hammer, H. Van Keulen, R. Rabbinge and B. A. Keating. 1997. Improving

wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective: water

and nitrogen effect on spring wheat in a semi – arid environment. Eur. J. Agron., 7: 75 –

88.

Meinke, H., W. E. Baethgen, P. S. Carberry, M. Donatelli, G. L. Hammer, R. Selvaraju and C. O.

Stöckle. 2001. Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using

participatory systems simulation approaches. Agricultural Systems. 70: 493 - 513.


Appendix 1

Agrometeorological

Advisory Bulletin (March 10-20, 2010)

This bulletin contains analysis of:

Past Weather: Know about any weather induced crop damages

Forecast: Keep yourself updated about coming weather to schedule

on- farm activities.

Find predictions for wintering / hygrothermal stress

conditions & possible damages to crops.

Crop reports: Get insight to performance of standing crops and know

about suitable actions for better crops.

Crop Water Know how much water is needed for optimum yield of

your crop. Requirement:

Soil Moisture: Know is there any risk of water stress to crops.

Pakistan Meteorological Department National Agromet Centre, Islamabad-Pakistan

Ph: 051-9250299 Fax: 051-9250362 URL: http://www.pakmet.com.pk Email: [email protected]

PMD 10 days Agromet Bulletin based on actual observations and field reports

Dr. B V R Punyawardena

Research Officer

Natural Resource Management Centre


Peradeniya, Sri Lanka

5.5 SRI-LANKA

Sri-Lanka 185

5.5.1 Climate of Sri Lanka

Being located in low latitudes between 6° and 10° N and surrounded by the Indian Ocean,

Sri Lanka shows very typical maritime-tropical temperature conditions. Moreover, there is a

marked variation in climate of the island due to the central highland region being surrounded

by an extensive lowland area. Out of major climatic parameters, temperature, rainfall,

humidity and evaporation are of special significance which can cause substantial impact on

the agricultural productivity of the country. However, being a tropical country solar radiation

hardly limits the crop growth under general weather conditions.

5.5.2 Temperature

The regional differences in temperature are due to altitude; there is no temperature variation

due to latitude. The mean monthly temperatures differ slightly depending on the seasonal

movement of the sun, with some modifying influence caused by rainfall. In the lowlands, the

mean annual temperature is 27ºC and the mean daily range is 6ºC. In the central highland

with altitudes up to 2,400m a cooler climate is experienced. At Nuwara Eliya, altitude

1800m, the mean annual temperature is 15ºC and the mean daily range is 10ºC. However,

during the period of January to March the diurnal variation around Nuwara Eliya is large and

ground frost is observed on about four days early in the mornings or nights when the

temperature near the ground falls below freezing point. During the period May to

September, if the westerly winds are strong, the leeward area east of the central highland,

and the relatively flat terrain extending to the east coast experience a warm dry wind. Such

local winds are known as the Kachchan or Yal-hulang. The mean daily range of temperature

could then reach 9ºC with a mean daily maximum temperature of 34ºC. The coldest month

with respect to mean monthly temperature is January and the warmest months are April and

early May

5.5.3 Rainfall

Rainfall of Sri Lanka is of multiple origins. Monsoonal, convectional and weather systems

formed in the Bay of Bengal account for major share of the annual rainfall. It varies from

900 mm (southeastern lowland) to over 5,400 mm (southwestern slopes of the central

highland). The four rainfall seasons that have been recognized in the rainfall calendar of Sri

Lanka are based on the monsoons. These are the First Inter Monsoon (FIM), South West

Monsoon (SWM), Second Inter Monsoon (SIM) and North East Monsoon (NEM). The

rainfall distribution during the FIM period of March-April shows that that the entire

southwestern sector and hill country receives 0vver 250 mm of rainfall with a localized area

in the southwestern slopes experiencing rainfall in excess of 700 mm. Rainfall during SWM

period of May to September varies from about 100 to over 3,000 mm. The highest rainfall is

received in the mid elevations of the western slopes. The SIM period of October to

November is the most evenly balanced distribution of rainfall over Sri Lanka. Almost the

entire island receives in excess of 400 of rain during this season, with southwestern slopes

receiving higher rainfall in the range of 750 to 1,200 mm. During the NEM period in


December to February of the following year, the highest rainfall figures are recorded in the

northeastern slopes of the central hills with over 1,200 mm. Being chiefly convective in

nature, rains during two intermonsoon periods usually associates with thunder and lightning

along with short-duration high intensity rains especially during the FIM period. Out of these

four rainfall seasons, two consecutive rainy seasons make up the major growing seasons of

Sri Lanka, namely Yala and Maha seasons. Generally Yala season is the combination of FIM

and SWM rains. Since SWM rains are effective only over the country’s southwestern sector,

the length of this season in the rest of the country confines only to two months. Being

effective only for two months in most parts of the island, the Yala season is considered as the

minor growing season of the country. The major growing season of the island, Maha season

begins with the arrival of SIM rains October and continues up to late January/February with

the MEM rains.

5.5.4 Relative Humidity

Relative humidity generally ranges from 70 to 90 per cent during morning and 55 to 80 per

cent during late afternoon depending on the geographical location. Very low humidity

values (from 55 to 60 per cent) are reported in dry lowlands during June to August where the

föhn like wind (Kachchan wind) is often very marked. Comparatively high humid condition

that prevails during winter months (December to January) is one of the predisposing factors

for plant disease outbreaks during the Maha season.

5.5.5 Evaporation

During the Yala season often pan evaporation is likely to range between 3 to 8 mm per day

depending on geographical region. Higher values over 8 mm per day are often experienced

in dry lowland areas during this period. Meanwhile, a range of 2 to 5 mm per day is

generally observed during the Maha season across different localities of the island.

5.5.6 Climatic zones of Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has traditionally been generalized in to three climatic zones in terms of “Wet

Zone” in the southwestern region including central hill country, and “Dry Zone” covering

predominantly, northern and eastern part of the country, being separated by an “Intermediate

zone,” skirting the central hills except in the south and the west (Map 1). In differentiating

aforesaid three climatic zones, rainfall, contribution of southwest monsoon rains, soils, land

use and vegetation have been widely used. The Wet zone receives relatively high mean

annual rainfall over 2,500 mm without pronounced dry periods. The Dry zone receives a

mean annual rainfall of less than 1,750 mm with a distinct dry season from May to

September. The Intermediate zone receives a mean annual rainfall between 1,750 to 2,500

mm with a short and less prominent dry season.

Sri-Lanka 187

5.5.7 Climate parameters and crop growth

The relationship between weather parameters and crop growth and yield has been adequately

documented over the decades in national, regional and international literature archives and

hence, needs no further elaboration. Therefore, for the special needs of this document, only

as to how the climate variability and change would affect agricultural production in Sri

Lanka will be discussed.

Weather is the major uncontrollable factor that influences the growth and development of

crops. It has become a common grievance that expected yields are hardly achieved despite

adapting advance technology and optimum amount of inputs. This is of a concern as we have

been seeing greater deviation from yield trends during last several years than were

experienced during the 1970s and the early 1980s.


Due to the continuous advancement of the technology after 1970s, potential yield of almost

every crop appears to have increased in a linear manner even though yield trends show

diminished rates of increase and high variability. If weather were ideal each season, crop

yield trends would likely to show a linear increase during the years from 1970s through

2000. It is probable that the cause of the leveling of yield trends, though not uniform within

the country and even within an agro-ecological region, is caused by increasingly uncertain

weather conditions. There can be many reasons for this leveling of the yield trend, most of

them are directly or indirectly related to the climate change such as increased variability of

rainfall, increased ambient temperature, changes in the severity and number of pests and

diseases and perhaps many other factors. For example, the assumption that we made at the

very beginning is that sunlight is sufficient for the growth of crops may not always be true

under a changing climate. High variability of monsoon may bring some years with which

will have a month where light is not sufficient for optimal crop growth and grain filling.

5.5.8 Major issues of climate change with respect to agricultural

productivity in Sri Lanka

Being a country whose economy is highly dependent on agriculture is very sensitive to the

weather aberrations. Thus, there is no doubt that climate change/variability would inflict

additional strain on the agricultural productivity of Sri Lanka due to reduction of crop yields

both quantitatively and qualitatively. Recent estimated statistics indicate that the climate

change will affect the agricultural production in Sri Lanka, and is expected to decrease

agricultural production by 16 per cent in 2020. If accurate and timely agro-met advisory

products are available, the magnitude of this impact could be reduced considerably.

Following is a list of possible impacts on the agriculture sector of Sri Lanka that would arise

in future due to the climate change:

A). Reduction of crops yield due to increased variability of rainfall

• Soil moisture stress on rainfed upland crops

• Less availability of irrigation water at crucial times

• Flood damages to crops grown in flood plains

• Excess soil moisture for upland crops during certain times of the growing season

• Increased post-harvest losses due to abnormal rainy weather conditions during

harvesting period of crops

• Increased rate of soil erosion and subsequent sedimentation of downstream

reservoirs

• Increased pest and disease infestation

B). Reduction of crop yields due to increasing ambient temperature

• Reduction of food reserves in crops due to reduced photosynthesis and increased

respiration rates

• Desiccation of pollens

• Spikelet sterility in grain crops, especially in rice

• Reduced bulking of tuber crops, especially in potato

• Increased soil moisture stress due to high evapotranspiration rates

Sri-Lanka 189

• Reduced availability of irrigation water due to rapid drying up of irrigation tanks,

especially the minor tanks

• Increased pest damages

• Reduced soil fertility

a. Land degradation due to salinization

b. Rapid decomposition of organic matter c. Less microbial activity

C). Possible impacts due to sea level rise

• Contamination of both surface and ground water irrigation sources by brackish water

• Salinity and Sodicity in coastal agricultural lands

• Encroachment of agricultural lands for other land uses

5.5.9 Importance of seasonal weather prediction to Sri Lanka

Being a country whose economy has been based on agriculture since ancient times, it is

recognized that weather plays a dominant role in country’s prosperity. As a result, farming

systems and agronomic practices in almost all agro-ecological regions of the country have

evolved in close harmony with the climatic regime of respective regions. However, it has

been evident in recent years that heritage of farming experiences and accumulated weather

lore of centuries are no longer useful in the process agricultural planning at any level due to

climate change. Because, climate of the island has undergone a change to such an extent that

correct amount of rainfall does not come at the correct time of the growing season where as

more rains would come when it is not needed. Meanwhile, ambient temperature also shows a

rising trend with web of negative impacts on the agricultural productivity. Therefore, it has

become a timely need to produce reliable seasonal weather forecasting than ever before so

that appropriate changes to farming practices could be undertaken to minimize the impacts

of possible weather aberrations under a changing climate.

The recent foresight activities on seasonal weather forecasting have emphasized the need of

the agricultural sector and to be even more responsive to the needs of farmers and agri-

business people. Thus, there should be a better match between publicly-funded strategic

research on seasonal weather forecasting and the needs of the stakeholders, in particular, the

agricultural sector. It is also recognized that benefits and efficiencies could be gained if

forecasts, especially seasonal forecasts, were available on time and reliable. Deviation from

the norm is considered the most important, especially relating to extreme conditions and the

likely duration of such events. In view of the regional and global nature of the modern food

chain, there is interest in forecasts on a regional and global basis, especially where weather

conditions are likely to affect the availability and quality of raw materials and ingredients.

The ability of Department of Meteorology, Sri Lanka to forecast weather on a seasonal basis

is improving and there is a growing recognition by the agricultural sector for such an

achievement. It will enable the farmers and policy makers to minimize the risk of farming

through:

• Choice of growing location;

• Choice of cultivar/s with respect to potential growing conditions and potential pest

and disease;


• Determination of sowing and planting times;

• Planning and control of stocks and distribution of seed, fertilizers and agro-

chemicals;

• Irrigation planning;

• Potential demand for application of pesticides (insecticides, fungicides, herbicides,

etc.) and fertilizers;

• Protection against extreme weather conditions, e.g. flood, drought, frost;

• Arrangements of contract growing;

• Potential harvesting conditions;

• Prediction of quality and quantity of crop (Yield forecasting);

• Production and manufacturing in agri-based industries;

• Prediction of timing, quality and quantity of raw materials;

• Optimize the marketing opportunities to meet consumer demand higher prices for

farmers;

• Potential volume and quality of raw materials from competitor imports from other

countries.

5.5.10 Present Situation of Long Range Weather Forecasting (LRF) in

Sri Lanka

For agricultural purposes it is important to have both short range and long range weather

forecasts, especially the rainfall. However, being a tropical country it is easier said than done

to issue accurate short range weather forecast due to unexpected development of meso-scale

weather phenomenon in the tropical region, especially during the intermonsoon periods

At present, Long Range weather Forecast (LRF) is not issued by the Department of

Meteorology (DoM) due to lack of resources and expertise in this field of meteorology.

Thus, DoM has compelled to use climatological averages (1961-1990 Average) as a tool for

LRF. However, this information will provide only upon the request of clients. Probability of

having such climatological events will also be given along with such forecast using the

present synoptic situation and the possible future changes of the atmosphere.

But the climatological averages do not give a clear indication on the very below average and

very above average (extremes) situations of the climate. As a result, climatological averages

tend to mislead the users including farmers during the extreme weather conditions.

Meanwhile, it has been observed that extreme weather conditions such as heavy rainfall and

drought conditions are in a rising trend during recent past probably due to the climate

change. Therefore, development of accurate LRF tools is of paramount importance to reduce

the vulnerability of agricultural sector to the weather aberrations induced by the climate

change.

To fulfill this requirement, DoM developed a statistical model to issue seasonal rainfall

forecasting to cater the country’s agricultural sector. However, it was observed that skill of

the model in predicting the extreme rainfall events was very poor. Subsequently, scientists

have tried statistical downscaling of GCMs as a seasonal rainfall forecasting tool, but to end

up with the same results. This was mainly attributed to the fact that relative size of the island

compared to the scale of available GCMs. Hence, it has become very clear that dynamic

Sri-Lanka 191

downscaling of GCMs models and Numerical Weather Predictions (use of current weather

conditions as input in to mathematical models) is the only available options to issue reliable

seasonal weather forecasting. However, as mentioned before lack of resources and expertise

on this field have severely hampered the further development of this discipline in the field of

meteorology and climatology in Sri Lanka. Nevertheless, acquiring of a new Dropler

Weather Radar System, installation 38 AWS and 20 Telemeter rain-gauges by the

Department of Meteorology will definitely enhance the quality and accuracy of weather

forecasts of Sri Lanka in future and to produce valuable agro-met advisory products.

5.5.11 Current state of agromet advisory service in Sri Lanka

At present, even though agro-meteorological information are being collected by both

departments of agriculture and meteorology, there is hardly any collective effort to

synthesize these information and compile agro-met advisory products or documents which

are of any use to farmers and agri-business people. Whatever information that is being

collected is used by researchers and policy makers for long-term planning and decision

making. It has also been observed that there is only minimal interaction exists among

agricultural and meteorological officials and farmers and agri-business people. As a result

meteorological officials have only limited concern on agriculture when they issue short or

medium range forecasts. This has led to farmers and peasants have no experience in relying

on weather information which in turn results in no demand for agro-meteorological products

or documents to be produced by the met service.

5.5.12 Proposed networking of Department of Meteorology and


Even though an agro-met advisory service does not exist in Sri Lanka at present, its

importance has been surfaced in various platforms during recent times in dealing with the

challenge of climate change on agricultural productivity. Therefore, it has become a

fundamental requirement to make aware the farmers and the agri-business people on the

importance of real time agro-advisory products and to enlighten the met officials on the

requirements of agricultural sector with respect to weather forecasting. At this place,

agricultural officials have a vital role to play to link these two groups by respecting needs

and constrains of both parties.

Therefore, it is proposed to take following steps by respective authorities in order to increase

the demand for agro-met advisory products by agricultural stakeholders to reduce the risk

that may arise due to the climate change

• Establishment of an Agro-met Forecasting Cell at the Department of Agriculture

(DoA) with a team of Scientists and Extension Agronomists

• Linking this cell directly to the National Meteorological Center (NMC) of the

Department of Meteorology (DoM)

• Immediate transferring of short and medium range weather forecasts issued by the

NMC directly to the Agro-met Forecasting Cell

• Preparation of Value-added Agro-Advisory Reports by the Agro-met Forecasting

Cell


• Dissemination of these information immediately to the, Farm-broadcasting service,

On-line agricultural extension service, Cyber Extension Service of the DoA, all

printed and electronic media

In long-run, following activities should be undertaken

• Carry-out awareness programme to educate farmers and other stakeholders on the

importance of Agro-advisory reports and build their confidence on such information

• Develop a mechanism to get the feedback of end-users to improve the agro-advisory

reports

• Preparation of area specific detailed value-added agro-advisory reports on request

through on-line for agri-business people after paying a small fee

All these will help farmers and agri-business people and policy makers to utilize the real

time weather information for improved decision making and management of agricultural

systems for enhanced and sustainable productivity through minimizing the risk of weather

aberrations.

5.5.13 Information that should give along with value-added agro-advisory

reports

• Possible onset of seasonal rains

� Is it quite early or considerably late ?

• Any prolong dry spells during the season

� How long they will be ?

• Spatial variability of seasonal rains

� At least for major agro-climatic zones

• Possible withdrawal of seasonal rains

� Is it quite early or considerably delayed ?

• Possible extreme weather conditions

� Frost occurrences in Up Country Wet Zone

� Daytime maximum temperatures exceeding some threshold levels � Above 33

0C in Dry and Intermediate zones during July

• Appropriate crops/varieties for the season specifying for different agro-ecological

regions

• Appropriate agronomic and water management practices

• Suitable soil and water conservation techniques

� Eg. Should mulching be in placed ?

• Increase or decrease in area planted

� Upland and lowland

• Advices on timing of land preparation

• Possible pest and disease outbreaks

• Optimal period for harvesting

• Placing orders and Stocking of inputs

• Advices on borrowing loans

• Advices on crop insurance

• Advices on marketing of farm products

6. Proceedings

Consultation meeting on

"Operational Agrometeorological Services in

SAARC and other countries in RA II region"

20-21 April 2012

at

National Meteorological

Training Institute,Pashan,

Pune

Proceedings of WMO and SAARC meeting 195

WMO, Non-SAARC Participants

Mr Robert Stefanski Chief,

Agricultural Meteorology Division

Climate and Water Department

World Meteorological Organization

7bis Avenue de la Paix

CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland

[email protected]

Mr. Ngo TienGiang Deputy Director

Center for Agricultural Meteorology

(CAMET)

Vietnam Institute of Meteorology,

No 23-62 Alley, Nguyen Chi Thanh Road,

Dong Da District, Ha Noi, Viet Nam

[email protected]

Mrs. Erdenetsetseg 7-73, Khoroo 7, Sukhbaatar district,

Ulaanbaatar Mongolia

[email protected]

Mrs. ValeyevaDilya Chief of Agrometeorological Forecasts,

Department of Uzhydromet

[email protected]


SAARC Participants

Dr. A. K. Azad

Director, SAARC Agriculture Centre

BARC Complex, Farmgate, New Airport Road, Dhaka,

1215, Bangladesh

[email protected]

Dr. S. K. Pal

Deputy Director (Agriculture)

SAARC Agriculture Centre BARC Complex, Farmgate,

New Airport Road

Dhaka, 1215, Bangladesh [email protected]

Dr. M. N.Alam

Senior Program Specialist SAARC Agriculture Centre

BARC Complex, Farmgate, New Airport Road

Dhaka, 1215, Bangladesh

[email protected]

Dr. N. Chattopadhyay

Head, Agricultural Meteorology

Division, India Meteorological

Department,

Shivajinagar, Pune-411 005 India

[email protected]

Md. A. Mannan

Scientist, Synoptic Division

SAARC Meteorological

Research Centre(SMRC) Dhaka, Bangladesh

[email protected]

Dr. M. H. Mondal

Director General (Retd.),

Bangladesh Agricultural

Research Institute (BARI), Gazipur, Bangladesh

[email protected]

Mr. Abdul Ramiz

Director,

Maldives Meteorological

services. abdul_muhsin@meteorology

.gov.mv

Mr. J. P.Khanal

Director of Agriculture

Regional Directorate of

Agriculture Hariharbhawan, Lalitpur, Nepal

[email protected]

Dr.H. K. Kadupitiya

41-B-4, Hantana, Housing

Scheme, Kandy Sri Lanka

kadupitiya @gmail.com

Dr. Chimmi Wangda

Meteorology Division

Department of Hydromet

Services, Moea, Thimphu

[email protected]


India Meteorological Department has been working for the countries under the Regional

Association II regions on different aspects of agricultural meteorology through the different

programmes of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation(SAARC) and the

Commission of Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) of World Meteorological Organization

(WMO) like agrometeorological services for agricultural production, strengthening of

operational agrometeorological services, application of agrometeorological products and

services for sustainable agricultural development, severe weather forecasting demonstration

project development for the Bay of Bengal region (RA II – South Asia) etc. Besides,

initiative has been taken recently between India Meteorological Department and World

Meteorological Organization on operational agrometeorology particularly in capacity

building and application of state of art technology in AAS in RA II region.

In this endeavour,Agricultural Meteorology Division, India Meteorological Department

(IMD), Pune, World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), Geneva and SAARC Agriculture

Centre (SAC), Bangladesh jointly organized the Consultation Meeting on Operational

Agrometeorological Services in SAARC and other countries in Regional Association (RA) II

region at National Meteorological Training Institute, Pune from 20-21 April 2012. A number

of high level dignitaries such as Dr. A. K. Azad, Director, SAC, Mr. Robert Stefanski, Chief,

Agricultural Meteorology Division, WMO, Prof. R. R. Kelkar, Former Director General of

Meteorology, IMD, AVM (Dr.) Ajit Tyagi, Former Director General of Meteorology, IMD

and Permanent Representative of WMO, Government of India, Dr. K. J. Ramesh, Scientist

G, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, Shri S. Krishnaiah, Deputy Director

General of Meteorology (Surface Instruments), IMD, Pune, Shri B. Mukhopadhay, Deputy

Director General of Meteorology (HRD) & Scientist F,IMD,New Delhi,

Dr.N.Chattopadhyay, Head, Agricultural Meteorology Division, IMD, Pune, Dr. S. K. Pal,

Deputy Director (Agriculture), SAC, Dr. S. D. Attri, Deputy Director General of

Meteorology ( International) and Scientist E, IMD, New Delhi, Dr. S. Venkataraman,

Former. Director, IMD, Pune, Dr. S. Sardesai, Scientist G, National Informatics Centre

(NIC), Pune, Dr. H. P. Das, Former Deputy Director General of Meteorology (Agrimet),

IMD and number of Scientists / Officers from Meteorological Services of SAARC and Non

SAARC countries in RA II region have participated in the meeting. The objective of the

meeting was to share the ideas and understanding of agromet advisory services among the

agrometeorologists from SAARC and Non-SAARC countries in the RA-II which would

ultimately boost the agricultural activities and also benefit both the group of countries.

Extensive discussion was made to effectively integrate the skills of operational,

experimental, theoretical aspects of agricultural meteorology and their possible development

for the purpose of making the agriculture production system in the country in general more

robust.

Dr. N.Chattopadhyay heartily welcomed the dignitaries

and participants from different parts of the RA II region.

He complimented the SAC and WMO for their support

in organising the meeting as it is the need of the hour to

make a sensible programme in Agromet Advisory

Service in the countries in Asian region. He informed

the participants that the aim of the meeting was to

discuss different aspects of Agromet Advisory Services


(AAS), share ideas and understanding of AAS in SAARC and Non SAARC countries.Dr. N.

Chattopadhyay noted that IMD has achieved several milestonesin AAS with the active

support of the Ministry of Earth Sciences(MoES), Government of India and alsoin

collaboration with number of organisations under Public Private Partnership (PPP) mode. He

also informed that there would be three sessions followed by discussion on operational AAS

at different SAARC and Non SAARC countries and recommendations would be made which

may be applicable to the neighbouring countries.

Shri S.Krishnaiah mentioned that economy of most

of the countries of the world are dependent on

agriculture and development of agriculture has direct

bearing on the economy of the country. He said that

an exclusive Division for Agricultural Meteorology

was set up in IMD in 1932 in Pune with an objective

of minimising adverse weather impact and make

benefit of favourable weather. Shri S. Krishnaiah also

mentioned that Integrated Agromet Advisory

Services started in India in 2007 in collaboration with ICAR, Ministry of Agriculture and

different stake holders for implementing the services and also added that IMD is working

with RA II of WMO for sustainable development in agriculture. He added that initiation of

WMO in the development of operational Agrometeorology is highly beneficial for the

countries of RA II region and this has started a new era for operational agrometeorology. He

also added that the objective of the meeting would be sharing of ideas and educate each

other for benefit of other countries in RA II region and the meeting would be able to create a

new era of partnership in these the countries.

AVM (Dr.) Ajit Tyagi extended heartiest welcome to

all the delegates. He mentioned that with the success of

AAS, during next five year plan, AAS in India would

reach at block level. Dr.Tyagi also said that Pune is city

of learning and Agricultural Meteorology Division is

the true example for operationalization of District level

Agromet Advisory Service. He wished that during the

two days meeting the experiences to be gained in AAS

among the participating countries would be shared and

the recommendations and action plan of the meeting would be directly benefiting the

countries.

Prof. R.R.Kelkar briefly described the history of

Agricultural Meteorology in India. He said that as

most of the Asian countries are affected by drought,

floods, tropical cyclones etc. and there would be

much of impact of climate change in food security in

Asian countries,the RA II countries would have

tremendous responsibilities and important role from

the view point of food security. He has also discussed

about the status of food production in India in last two

years in relation to the spatial and temporal


distribution of monsoon rainfall. Prof. Kelkar stressed for the need of proper education of

farmers under the changing weather scenario. He said that he is very hopeful that two

different bodies i.e. RA II and SASCOF (South Asian Climate Change Outlook Forum)

would come together and come out with some good strategy for increased production.

Mr.R.Stefanski said that weather forecasting is

important aspect of Agricultural Meteorology

specifically in AAS. He said that IMD and the AASs

are providing a valuable service to farmers. He added

that weather and farming are related and operational

agrometeorology has much scope to explore the

relation for higher crop productivity. Mr. R. Stefanski

said that IMD’s medium range weather forecasting

and AAS of 5-7 days help the farmers to take

decisions on day-to-day agricultural operations and

that this is an excellent example of operational agromet. He also informed that dissemination

on climate forecast for a season and their application in agriculture would be explored jointly

by IMD and WMO. He stated that member countries of RA II would benefiting the most

out of the meeting and would be able to start issuing sensible Agromet Advisory Services in

their countries.

Dr. A. Azad said that the SAARC Agriculture Centre

has started in 1988 for policy planning and

management of agriculture. According to him,

weather based AAS and technology development for

dissemination of Agromet advisories are some of the

objectives of the centre. Dr. Azad informed that SAC

has initiated a programme on impact of climate on

agriculture in SAARC countries and to reduce the

negative impacts and to take corrective steps and

capacity building for the same.He appreciated the AAS activities in India which already

shared theseexperiences with neighbouringcountries. He also advised that if

recommendations of the meeting are implemented, there would be scope to minimise the

losses. He hoped that India would take a lead in this regard in future also.

Dr.S.D.Attri has read the message of

Dr.L.S.Rathore, Director General of Meteorology,

IMD, New Delhi. At the outset, Dr. Rathore

complimented both WMO and SAC for extending

support in organising the meeting. He

communicated that this meeting would lead the way

to deliver the weather information to the farmers in

the Asian region. He also informed that weather and

climate information would help to reduce the impact

of adverse weather. According to him, modernisation of IMD has considerably improved

with the AAS and Agro AWS data particularly of leaf wetness duration would help to

forecast disease at certain stations. He also said that Doppler Weather Radar data would be

useful for nowcasting at some stations. He also informed the august gathering that using


improved observations, IMD has been able to generate district level weather forecast and

generate advisories and to disseminate the advisories to about 3 million farmers by SMS and

other modes. According to him under changing climate, IMD, WMO and SAARC have to

work jointly to try to solve the future problems. He stressed for more collaboration among

IMD, WMO and SAARC and the countries in RA II region.

Dr.A.Kashyapi, Scientist E, IMD, Pune proposed

the vote of thanks. In this meeting

sixteenpresentations along with the discussion

were made in three technical sessions.

In the Technical Session-I, nine important

presentations were made with the theme on

“Operational Agromet Advisory Services in

SAARC countries” by Dr.S.K.Pal, Dr.M.Mondal,

Shri Jhanaki Prasad Khanal, Dr. M.N.Alam (on

behalf of Dr.M.Asim), Dr.H.K.Kadupitiya, Dr.A.M.Ramiz, Dr.ChimmiWangda,

Dr.Mohammed Abdul Mannan and Dr.N. Chattopadhyay.

Technical Session-II was arranged as joint session with SASCOF (South Asian Climate

Change Outlook Forum) organised by IMD and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

(IITM) and WMO during the same period. In this session Dr.D.S.Pai, Scientist E and Head,

Long Range weather Forecast Division, IMD, Pune and Smt (Dr.) Sulochana Gadgil made a

presentation on “Seasonal climate forecasting and agriculture in SAARC countries”. In

Technical session III, Mr. Robert Stefanski, Mrs.ValeyevaDilya (Uzbekistan) ,

Mrs.B.Erdenetseteg (Mongolia), and Mr. Ngo Tien Giang (Vietnam) made presentations on

“Operational Agromet Services in Non SAARC countries in the RA II region”. As a Guest

lecture,Dr. S. Venkataraman, Former Director, IMD, Pune has gave a presentation on

requirement of providers and users of Agromet Advisory Services. After each presentation

there was discussion among the participants of the meeting from the view point of

improvement of Agromet Advisory Services particularly in the countries where it has not

been established as per the requirements of the users. The salient points emerged out of the

discussion has been properly considered in the recommendation and the action plan in the

penultimate session of the meeting. This was followed by the panel discussion to frame the

recommendations and action plan. Brief description of the different Technical Sessions is

given below.


Technical Session I

Theme:Operational Agro meteorology in SAARC countries

In this session, there were nine presentations

made by the participants of the SAARC

countries. The first presentation was made by

Dr.S.K.Pal on ‘Overview of Agromet Advisory

Services in SAARC countries”. He highlighted

the genesis of SAARC Agriculture Centre and

objectives of centre, level of Agromet Advisory

Services in SAARC countries and proposed

plan of work to improve the AAS in member

countries. He mentioned that SAARC

Agriculture Centre (SAC) has initiated a

program on “Impact of climatic parameters on agricultural production and minimizing crop

productivity losses through weather forecast and advisory service in SAARC Countries”

during 2009. He stated that the Country Status report was invited on this aspect from all the

member countries and finally the samehasbeen received paper from Bangladesh, India,

Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. He informed that these Country Status Reports would be

discussed in details in this consultation meeting and that certain country specific as well as

region specific recommendations for improving the existing system would be developed. He

desired to provide valuable agro-meteorological information to the users through an interface

like Crop Weather Outlook of SAARC countries like Crop Weather Watch Group system in

India. He said that the future plan would be developing regional weather forecasting system,

establishment of Agromet advisory system network and Advisory dissemination mechanism.

Second presentation was made by Dr.

M.H.Mondal on “Impact of climate parameters

on Agricultural production and minimizing crop

productivity losses through weather forecast and

advisory service in Bangladesh”. Dr. Mondal

informed that the Bangladesh Meteorological

Department (BMD) is a government

organization under the Ministry of Defense and

the organization has two major wings: Storm

warning centre (SWC) and Agromet Division.

Dr. Mondol gave the following information. The

Agromet Division of BMD at present operates its activities through a network of 12 agro-

met stations. The stations are distributed over 7 divisions of the country. The forecast

information generated are disseminated by e-mail, website, fax and postal service to

different end users mainly DAE, AIS, Ministry of Agriculture, NARS, etc. The agromet

bulletin contains weather forecast for next 7 days (rainfall, temperature etc.), advisories for

the farmers (selection of technology, time of application of inputs, etc.) and 7 days location-


specific deterministic forecast (rainfall, temp.). Model outputs of international

meteorological centers like ECMWF (EU), NCEP (USA), JMA (Japan), MRWFC (India)

etc. are used for making deterministic forecast.Forecast information and advisories are useful

to address several risks like drought, flood and late blight diseases in Bangladesh to

minimize crop losses.

Third presentation was made by Shri Janaki Prasad

Khanal on “Present Status of Operational Agromet

Services in Nepal”. In his presentation he informed

about the climate change adaptation and disaster risk

management practices in Nepal. He said that

Agrometeorological advisory service (AAS) in Nepal

is at rudimentary stage. He said that at present the

Agromet Section of Department of Hydrology and

Meteorology (DHM), Ministry of Environment is

responsible for preparation of crop calendar of different weather to help agriculture. He also

stated that the existing AAS generation and dissemination mechanism is under the

collaboration of Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Science

and Technology. He informed that at National Level, DHM publishes weekly, monthly, and

quarterly weather report, crop calendar and 24 hours weather forecasting for general public.

AICC of MOAC publishes bi-monthly agricultural bulletin, broadcasts from Radio Nepal

and Nepal TV, PD under DOA and NARCpublishes quarterly and annual bulletins,AED

under DOA has maintained Agriculture Knowledge Bank. At regional level, RAD under

DOA publishes quarterly and annual bulletin, weekly broadcast from Radio Nepal and

NARS under NARC publishes research bulletins. He also proposed the strategy and set-up

for a proposed district level AAS system in Nepal.

The fourth presentation was made byDr. M.N. Alam

on“Agromet Advisory Services in Pakistan” on behalf

of Dr.M.Asim, who could not make to attend the

meeting. Dr. Alam said that Pakistan Meteorological

Department (PMD) is responsible to provide

professional services to the development of agricultural

sector in the country through its weather forecasting

mechanism. He has presented the following

information on weather forecast and agromet services

in Pakistan. The existing Weather Forecasting System

of PMD (R&D division) is carrying out various modelling activities for attaining a

purposeful forecast. The major activities include numerical modelling, regional climate

modelling and numerical weather forecasting systems. The fully functional National (1) and

Regional (4) Agromet Centres regularly publish Decadal Agromet Bulletin and Monthly

Agromet Bulletin of Pakistan for the farming community. Weather and flood forecasting by

PMD is disseminated through national media (TV, radio, press and mobile phones), weekly

and seasonal weather forecast for farmers through TV, radio, press and mobile phones and

seasonal forecast for water availability by PMD and WAPDA.


Fifth presentation was made by

Dr.H.K.Kadupitiya on “Agromet Advisory

Services in Sri Lanka”. He briefed about the

following operational climate monitoring and

prediction Systems in use for water management

in Sri Lanka. Monthly Bulletin on crop forecast

is issued by Socio-economic Center of

Department of Agriculture.Forecasting of paddy

area and yield by remote sensing is being taken

up. Agro-based weather forecast (WF) is not

issued by DOM due to lack of resources and

expertise. DOM use climatological averages (30 years) as a tool for Long Range Weather

Forecasting.He proposed establishment of an Agro-met Forecasting Cell at the Department

of Agriculture (DOA) with a team of Scientists and Extension Agronomists linking this cell

directly to the National Meteorological Center (NMC) of the Department of Meteorology

(DOM).

Sixth presentation was made by Mr. A.M.Ramiz

on “Status of Agrometeorological Service in the

Maldives”. He briefed about weather observation

network, information on severe weather events in

Maldives, weather information provided to the

users and crops grown. He said that no

information is provided to farmers on operational

basis at present and there are no trained staffs in

the field of Agrometeorology. He informed that a

workshop for stakeholders has been planned with

support of WMO and RIMESfor first week May 2012 to share the first monsoon forecast.

He also added that technical and financial support is also required to formulate a plan to

develop Agrometeorology and to train the staff in the field.

Seventh presentation was made by

Dr.Chimmi Wangda on “Current status of

operational Agromet Advisory Services in

Bhutan”. He said that the Department of

Hydromet Services (DHMS) was Hydromet

Services Division since 2002 and Department

of Energy was bifurcated into three new

departments in December 2011. He added

that there are four divisions under the

Department and Agromet/ climatology forms

one of the four sections under the

Meteorology Division. He informed that

farming in Bhutan mainly depends on maize, rice, vegetables and cash crops. He is very

hopeful that once Agromet office is operational, it is expected to improve the service by

providing timely Agro meteorological services to the farmers. At present the weather

forecast is disseminated to the public through national TV, radio and newspapers.


Eighth presentation was made by Md. Abdul

Mannan on “Role and Responsibilities of

Bangladesh Meteorological Department”.

He presented on the observational network,

forecasting techniques, warning messaging

system in Bangladesh. He mentioned that

weekly agromet forecasts and advisory are

being prepared and the same is also

displayed in WAMIS website

(www.wamis.org). He also made a

presentation on “Role and responsibilities of

SAARC Meteorological Research Centre

(SMRC) for Operational Meteorological/Agrometeorological Advisory Services in SAARC

countries”. He informed that at the 17th Governing Board Meeting, the proposed programme

for 2012 were on the thematic areas of Monsoon Initiatives, Severe Thunderstorm, Tropical

Cyclones andClimate Change. He also added that under capacity building a four weeks

training course on “Forecasts for extreme events by using NWP Techniques” would be held

in Delhi, India and three days seminar on ‘Heavy Rainfall Forecasts by NWP and its

validation over the SAARC Region’ would be held in Bhutan during 2nd Quarter (May) of

2012. He informed that weather forecasts for SAARC countries were prepared and placed in

SMRC website for benefit of SAARC countries.

Ninth presentation was made by Dr.

N.Chattopadhyay on “Agromet Advisory

Services in India”. He has given comprehensive

information of the agromet service in India by

presenting organisation structure, preparation of

forecast and advisory at district level,

dissemination under multi-purpose dissemination

system, feedback mechanism, economic

assessment and future strategies etc. He said that

many organisations are working together in

multidisciplinary approach and at National, State

and district level and that the advisories are being

prepared. He informed that under modernisation programme, a reasonable network of AWS

is being installed in India. Dr. Chattopadhyay has also furnished the following information in

respect of the AAS in India. In IMD’s modernization plan,all the meteorological data will

be used in GIS platform to generate various Agromet products to facilitate the preparation of

district level agro advisories at different Agrometeorological Field Units (AMFUs). The use

of crop weather calendars, pest weather calendars and aridity anomaly maps are being

prepared for farming agromet advisory. The dissemination of agromet advisory is being

undertaken in public partnership mode where SMS service is important one. Several partners

are likely to disseminate the advisory in this mode. The Agromet advisory service is being

popularized through awareness programmes to the farmers, field visits and circulation of

brochures in different languages. Crop yield forecasting at the National level is being

undertaken under FASAL project. In XIIth Five Year Plan, the GraminKrishiMausamSewa

project would be taken up to further strengthen the AAS in India.


Technical Session II

Theme: Seasonal forecast and Agriculture

In this session, two presentations were made on

the above theme. First presentation was made

by Dr.D.S.Pai, Scientist E & Head, Long Range

Weather Forecasting, IMD on “Status of

seasonal climate forecast in SAARC”. He

briefly discussed the South West Monsoon in

India. He showed the close relation between

crop production and rainfall in India. He also

showed the relation between ISMR and GDP

agriculture. He informed that National Monsoon

Mission project in the country was started for

coupled model for long range forecasting. Also, the SASCOF initiative has been taken up

to enhance the seasonal prediction capabilities in coordination with WMO and at present

forecast for south Asian region is prepared with experts of SAARC countries along with IRI,

WMO, JMA etc. as the output of SASCOF meeting.

An interesting and thought provocation presentation

was made byDr.Sulochana Gadgil, an eminent

scientist in Atmospheric Science in India on “Use of

seasonal climate forecasting for Agriculture”. She

said that seasonal forecasting on all India scale had a

large impact on agriculture. She showed that

deficiency of -10% over all India has more impact

than excess of 10% in agriculture. She stated that

rainfed production has not increased because the

research programmes are scientist oriented and

seasonal prediction should have one sided prediction

like drought prediction etc. She inferred that it is important to educate farmers and scientists

in seasonal climate forecasting. She discussed the various strategies for generating climate

forecast variables.

These presentations were followed by the discussion on operational aspects of seasonal

forecast on agriculture in SAARC countries. It was agreed that the users need must be taken

into account even in experimental mode. Also the participants agreed that seasonal forecasts

are best used for macro scale (continent) features and that this information would be best

suited for input managers and planners at state and national level. It was requested that such

observations of the gathering may be included in the recommendation of the SASCOF

meeting.


Technical Session III

Theme: Operational Agrometeorolgy in Non SAARC countries in RA II region

Five presentations were made during the session.

First presentation was made by Mr.Robert Stefanski

on “Overview of WMO’s Agricultural Meteorology

Activities”. He stated that WMO is the United

Nations agency for weather, climate, hydrology and

water resources and related environmental issues.

He informed that there are 189 members from

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

(NMHS). WMO is composed of 10 major scientific

and technical programmes (Secretariat), 8 Technical

Commissions which advise and guide activities of

programmes (Experts) and 6 Regional Associations

involved in implementation.He noted that the

Commission of Agricultural Meteorology supports the development of Agromet Services of

Members by transfer of knowledge and methodology and by providing advice on various

subjects and methods, procedures and techniques for the provision of meteorological

services to agriculture (all sectors). He added that WMO assists in organizing Roving

Seminars on Weather, Climate and Farmers in West Africa and other countries where

agrometeorological advice was prepared and provided to the farmers along with the

raingauges.He also described the meaningful feature ofWAMIS (www.wamis.org) which

helps member countries to disseminate and improve their agro meteorological products. He

also said that as a dedicated web server, WAMIS allows countries to place their existing

agrometeorological bulletins and advisories on a near real-time basis. He also briefly

presented the on-going and proposed activities of the recently initiated Severe Weather

Forecasting Demonstration Project and application of NWP in agriculture.

Second presentation was made by Mrs.

ValeyevaDilya on “Operational Agromet

Service in Uzbekistan”. She informed that

Centre of Hydrometeorological Service

(Uzhydromet) is the state governing body

specially authorized for the solution of tasks in

the field of hydrometeorology in the Republic

of Uzbekistan and in its activities it is

accountable to Cabinet of Ministers.

According to her, Department of

Agrometeorological forecasts in the centre

support the needs of Agromet and the tasks fulfilled by the Department are the assessment of

the past and expected agrometeorological conditions of the growth, vegetation and formation


of crops, forecasting of the rate of vegetation of agricultural crops, time of the main field

activities (sowing, harvest, defoliation, cutting of mulberry tree, opening of vineyards, etc.)

and assessment of the productivity of pastures. She also added that the Department also

provides special agromet advisory for cotton farmers in Uzbekistan.

Third presentation was made by

Mrs.B.Erdenestetsegon “Agrometeorological

Advisory Service in Mongolia”. She showed how

the National Agency for Meteorology and

Environment Monitoring of Mongolia

conductsAgrometeorological

observation/Monitoring, Agrometeorological

service and Research studies. She said that the

objectiveof the Agromet service is to provide the

government, organizations, agents and people with

agrometeorological services and products by

providing decadal, monthly and seasonal agrometeorological bulletins. She also showed how

Agromet forecasts covers soil thawing and freezing date, spring soil moisture, wheat heading

and wax maturity date, yield of wheat and potato, biomass of pasture and Ewe (female

sheep) weight. She stated that the objectives of research are modeling of pasture yield and

crop productions, improving satellite and ground data based monitoring, data acquisition and

database technology and studying the impacts of climate change on agricultural productions,

its assessment and future projection.

Fourth presentation was made by Mr. Ngo

TienGiangon“Agro-meteorological Services in Vietnam”.

He stated that main activities of Agro-meteorological

Monitoring and Forecasting are the assessment and wise-use

of agroclimate resources, crop yield forecasting,

agrometeorological information consulting services,

agrometeorology serving, sustainable agricultural

development and food security. In addition to that he said

that the experimental studies at stations are also carried out

on tropical agrometeorological problem and adaptability of

imported new or hybrid varieties and issue

agrometeorological bulletins and forecasts. He also

mentioned about agrometeorological bulletins (monthly,

seasonal) which contains weather forecast in agricultural

aspect, agrometeorological forecast on main stages of

growing of crop, agrometeorological seasonal report and

other report from requests of users. He also explained the

state of art technology i.e. GIS and Satellite technology are used in some of operational

service (bulletin, crop yield forecasts, making agro-ecological and agro-climatic zoning) and

crop yield simulations are used for developing / customize for strengthening operational

activities and yield forecasting of rice.


Fifth presentation was made by

Dr.S.Venkataraman as a Guest lecturer on

“Requirements of Providers and Users of

Agromet Advisory Services”. He said that

study of crop-weather situations in recent

past ten years were conducted to draw up

contingency crop plans for late start of crop

season of both rainfed and irrigated crops,

change of varieties/crops, cut-off dates for

their sowing/planting,planting density etc.

He emphasised the agronomic technologies

that are developed for mid-seasonal weather vagaries and protection from pests and diseases.

According to him, Medium Range weather forecasts (MRWFs) offer the highest potential for

real-time use as inputs for farming operations. Dr. S.Venkataraman added that Crop Weather

Calendars can help examine the actually realized crop-weather situations in terms of

aberrations from normal in the recent past at a location for a post-facto analyses of what was

done or what could have been done to mitigate crop losses.

At the end, panel discussion was organised

inviting Mr. Robert Stefanski, Dr. A.Azad,

Dr.N. Chattopadhyay, Dr.K.K. Singh, Dr.

M.N.Alam, Dr.S.K.Pal and Dr.H.P.Das for

developing the future activities and

preparing the recommendation and action

plan of the meeting. Based on the

presentations from different countries and

experts, in-depth discussion was made on

strategies and streamlines the activities of

Agromet Advisory Service in SAARC and

Non SAARC countries.


7. RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION PLAN:

Based on the agreement of the panel of experts, recommendations and action plans were

made on the four major areas: 1. Weather Forecasts 2. Agromet Advisory Services 3.

Dissemination 4. Policy issues

1. Weather Forecasts

A. Recommendation: Available weather forecast products may be shared amongst the

countries in the RA-II region (SAARC and Non -SAARC countries) for preparation

of Agromet Advisories.

Action Plan:Regional Forecasting Centres may generate the forecast and share the

products with the neighboring countries.

Period of Implementation:Six months to one year.

B. Recommendation: Medium Range Weather Forecast (MRWF) for 5-7days may be

developed for use in AAS.

Action Plan: WMO and Regional Centres should assist the lead countries in

developing MRWF for all the countries in the region

Period of Implementation: Within 3 years

2. Agromet Advisory Services

A. Recommendation: There is need to establish AAS centres in each country.

Action Plan: Each country should submit proposal including technical and financial

requirement to the respective Government. Permanent Representative of WMO of

each country may initiate the process to form a steering committee (involving the

Departments of Agriculture, Meteorology and allied Departmentsetc.) that will

identify the appropriate persons to prepare the proposal.

Period of Implementation:6 months

B. Recommendation: There should be appropriate manpower available in the Agromet

Division.

Action Plan: Steering committee to propose to the concerned Ministry regarding

the manpower recruitment (both technical and supportive).

Period of Implementation: One year

C. Recommendation: Arrangement may be made for proper infrastructure in the

Agromet Division

Action Plan: Construction of building and setting up of state of art instruments may

be included in the project proposal submitted to the concerned organization.

Period of Implementation: 3 years


D. Recommendation: Arrangement may be made for Capacity Building in Forecasting

and Agrometeorology.

Action Plan: WMO and Regional Centres should assist in Capacity Building in

forecasting as well as preparation of agromet advisories.

Period of Implementation: Three Years

3. Dissemination

A. Recommendation: Proactive initiative may be started to disseminate the agromet

advisories through Mass media, Internet, mobile & Extension services.

Action Plan: Implementing organization may develop linkages with collaborative

organisations as well as private firms to disseminate the advisories.

Period of Implementation: Two Years

B. Recommendation: There is need to developfeedback mechanism to assess the

agromet advisories.

Action Plan: A system may be developed to get the accuracy of the forecast and

advisories issued to the users from different stake holders and even users also. State

of art technology may be used in obtaining the feedback.

Period of Implementation: Two Years.

4. Policy issues

A. Recommendation:There is need toraise awareness on importance and benefits of

AAS.

Action Plan: Exchange of available information / brochure, exposure visits and

meeting with SAARC and other countries of RAII region particularly in India.


B. Recommendation: National and International collaboration on AAS may be

initiated.

Action Plan: MOU with different national/international organisations and also

private firms may be signed to strengthen the AAS and also encourage to develop

collaborative projects with WMO, SAC and other organisations in this regard.

Period of Implementation: Three Years

C. Recommendation: Review and refinement of existing policies.

Action Plan: If needed, concerned department of the country in the RA II region

may consult and convince the competent authority to review and refine the existing

policies.



8. Programme Details

Friday, 20 April 2012

OPENING OF THE MEETING

09.30 - 09.40 Lighting of Lamp and Invocation

09.40 - 09.50 Welcome address by Dr. N. Chattopadhyay, Head, Agricultural

Meteorology, Division, IMD, Pune

09.50 -10.00 Address by Shri S. Krishnaiah, Additional Director General of

Meteorology (Research), IMD, Pune

10.00 -10.10 Address by AVM (Dr.) Ajit Tyagi, Former Director General of

Meteorology, IMD & Permanent Representative of WMO

10.10 -10.20 Address by Dr. R. R. Kelkar, Former Director General of

Meteorology, IMD

10.20 -10.30 Address by Mr. Robert Stefanski, Chief, Agricultural Meteorology

Division, WMO, Geneva

10.30 -10.40 Address by Dr. Abul Kalam Azad, Director, SAARC Agriculture

Centre, Dhaka, Bangladesh

10.40 -10.50 Message from Dr. L.S. Rathore, Director General of Meteorology,

presented by Dr. S.D. Attri

10.50 - 11.00 Vote of thanks by Dr. A. Kashyapi, Scientist-E, Agricultural

Meteorology Division, IMD, Pune

11.00 -11.30 High Tea

SESSION 1:Operational Agrometeorology in SAARC Countries

Chairman: Mr. Robert Stefanski Rapporteur: Dr. A. Kashyapi

11.30 -11.50 Overview of Agromet Advisory Services in SAARC countries by

Dr. S.K. Pal, Deputy Director Agriculture, SAARC Agriculture

Centre

11.50 -12.10 Agromet Advisory Services in Bangladesh by Dr. Mohammad H.

Mondal

12.10 -12.30 Agromet Advisory Services in Nepal by Mr. Janaki Prasad Khanal

12.30- 12.50 Agromet Advisory Services in Pakistan by Dr. Muhammad

NurulAlam

12.50 -13.10 Discussion

13.10 -14.00 Lunch Break

Remaining part of the Session I arranged on 21st April

SESSION 2 :Seasonal forecast and Agriculture (Joint Session with South

Asian RCOF)

Chairman: Dr. Abul Kalam Azad Rapporteur: Dr. K. Ghosh

14.00 -14.20 Status of seasonal climate forecast in SAARC by Dr. D. S. Pai

14.20 -14.40 Use of seasonal forecast in agriculture by (Dr.) Sulochana Gadgil

14.40 -15.40 Discussion on Seasonal Forecast and Agricultural Applications


15.40-16.00 Tea break

16.00-17.30 Discussion on Seasonal Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF)

Saturday, 21 April 2012 SESSION 1 continued ---------

09.30-10.00 Agromet Advisory Services in Sri Lanka by Dr.H.K. Kadupitiya

10.00 -10.30 Agromet Advisory Services in Maldives by Mr. Abdul Muhsin

Ramiz

10.30 -11.00 Agromet Advisory Services in Bhutan by Dr. Chimmi Wangda

11.00 -11.30 Tea break

11.30 -12.00 Agromet Advisory Services in India by Dr. N. Chattopadhyay

12.00 -13.00 Discussion

13.00 -14.00 Lunch break SESSION 3 : Operational Agrometeorology in Non-SAARC Countries in RA II

Region

Chairman: Dr. H. P. Das Rapporteur: Shri R. Balasubramanian

14.00-14.20 Overview of WMO Agricultural Meteorology Programme by Mr.

Robert Stefanski, Chief, Agricultural Meteorology Division, WMO,

Geneva

14.20-14.40 Agromet Advisory Service in Uzbekistan by Mrs. Valeyeva Dilya

14.40-15.00 Agromet Advisory Service in Mongolia by Mrs. Erdenetsetseg

Baasandai

15.00-15.20 Agromet Advisory Service in Viet Nam by Dr. NGO Tien Giang

15.20-15.30 Requirements of Providers and Users of Agromet Advisory

Services by Dr. S. Venkatraman

15.30-15.45 Tea Break

15.45-16.45 Panel Discussion (Dr. Abul Kalam Azad, Mr. Robert Stefanski,

Dr. S. K. Pal, Dr. Muhammad NurulAlam, Dr. H.P.Das, Dr.K.K.

Singh, Dr. N. Chattopadhyay)

16.45-17.00 Recommendations

17.00-18.00 Valedictory Function and Vote of Thanks

Acronyms 213

Acronyms used in the document

AAS - Agrometeorological Advisory Service AED- Agriculture Extension Directorate AICRPAM All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology AIR All India Radio AMFUs AgroMet Field Unit AMU- Agrometeorological Advisory Unit APSIM Agricultural Production System SIMulator ARG Automatic Rain Gauge ARM Annual Review Meeting ASC- Agriculture Service Center ATMA Agricultural Technology Management Agency AWS Automatic Weather Stations BDO Block Development Officer CCC Canandian Climate Centre CMO Central Meteorological Organization CSC Common Service Centre CWWG Crop Weather Watch Group DADO- District Agricultural Development Office DAMU District Agromet Field Unit DAO District Agriculture offices DHM- Department of Hydrology and Meteorology DOA- Department of Agriculture DSS Decision Support System DSSAT Decision Support System for Agrometeorology Transfer DST Department of Science and Technology ECMWF European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation ESP Economic Survey of Pakistan ET Evapotranspiration GCM Global Circulation Model GDD Growing Degree Days GDP Gross Domestic Production GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GHG - Greenhouse gas GIS Geographical Information System GTS- Global Telecommunication System GTS- Global Telecommunication System ha Hectares HRM High Resolution Model IAAS Integrated Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service ICAO- International Civil Aviation Organization ICAR Indian Council of Agriculture Research ICT Information & Communication Technology


ICT- Information and Communication Technology IHP- International Hydrological Program IITs Indian Institute of Technologies IKSL IFFCO Kisan Sanchar Limited IMD India Meteorological Department IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPCC- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IT Information Technology IVR Interactive Voice Response JJAS June July August September JMA Japan Meteorological Agency kg Kilograms KVKs Krishi Vigyan Kendras MCs Meteorological Centres MD Monsoon Depression MFA Most Favourable Areas mKRISHI mobile KRISHI mm Millimeter MM5 Mesoscale Model version 5 MMET Multi Model Ensemble Technique MO Meteorological Observatories MoES Ministry of Earth Science MONTCLIM Monsoon and Tropical Climate and Agrometeorology Programme MoU Memorandum of Understanding MSA Most Severely Affected Areas MSSRF MS Swaminathan Research Foundation NABARD National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development NAMC National Agro-Met Centre NARC National Agricultural Research Centre NARC- Nepal Agricultural Research Council NATP National Infrastructure Technology Program NCA National Commission of Agriculture NCAP National Centre for Agricultural Economics and policy Research NCEP National Centre for Environmental Prediction NCMRWF National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NGO- Non-governmental Organization NGOs Non-Governmental Organization NWP Numerical Weather Prediction OHP- Operational Hydrology Program P Precipitation PAR Photosynthetically Active Radiation PE Potential Evapotraspiration PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department R & D Research & Development R&D Research & Development

Acronyms 215

RegCM3 Regional Climate Model version 3 RH Relative Humidity RHC Red Hairy Caterpiller RML Reuter Market Light SAARC South Asian Association For Regional Cooperation

SADIS Satellite Distribution Information System SALT Slope Agriculture Land Technology SAU State Agriculture University SD Standard Deviation SMC State Meteorological Centres SMS Short Message Service SO Southern Oscillation SOI Southern Oscillation Index TC Tropical Cyclone TCS Tata Consultancy Services TSI Thermal Sensitivity Index UKHI UK Met Office high resolution UKMO United Kingdom Met Office UKTR UK Met Office transient experiment USAID United States Agency for International Development VDC Village Development Committee VKC Village Knowledge Centre VPN Virtual Private Network VRC Village Resource Centre WD Western Disturbances WMO World Meteorological Organization

impact of climatic parameters on agricultural production and

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