Impact of Emissions on Intercontinental Long-Range Impact of Emissions on Intercontinental Long-Range TransportTransport

Joshua Fu, Joshua Fu, Yun-Fat Lam and Yang Gao, University of Tennessee,Yun-Fat Lam and Yang Gao, University of Tennessee, USAUSA

Rokjin Park, Seoul National University, KoreaRokjin Park, Seoul National University, KoreaDaniel Jacob , Harvard University, USADaniel Jacob , Harvard University, USA

Source-Receptor Modeling StudiesSource-Receptor Modeling Studies

36 km domain

12 km domain

• Downscaling effect to SR scenariosDownscaling effect to SR scenarios• GEOS-Chem to CMAQGEOS-Chem to CMAQ

• Regional impacts on both CMAQ 36km/12km domainsRegional impacts on both CMAQ 36km/12km domains• Beijing, Seoul, Shanghai, Taipei & PRDBeijing, Seoul, Shanghai, Taipei & PRD• Seattle, Atlanta, Chicago, NYC, LAX & Denver (36km only)Seattle, Atlanta, Chicago, NYC, LAX & Denver (36km only)

• Examination of distance transport effect on receptors, Examination of distance transport effect on receptors, East Asia and North America, using CMAQ 36km/12km East Asia and North America, using CMAQ 36km/12km domainsdomains

• Examination of perturbation of outflow from East Asia Examination of perturbation of outflow from East Asia due to emission increasedue to emission increase

• Summary

OutlineOutline

Current Defined ExperimentsCurrent Defined Experiments

SR Global Model (GEOS-Chem)

• Reference simulation in 2001 and simulations reducing anthropogenic emissions by 20% in EU, NA, EA, and SA.

• SR3 - Anthropogenic NOx emissions reduced 20%

• SR6 - Combined reduction of anthropogenic emissions (NOx/ NMVOC/ CO/ SO2/ NH3/ POM/ EC) by 20%

SR Regional Model (CMAQ)

• Using GEOS-Chem outputs as initial and boundary conditions

• e.g. SR3EU = Boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem (20% Anthropogenic NOx emissions from Europe)

• Average monthly (not hourly) GEOS-Chem outputs are used

GEOS-Chem ConfigurationsGEOS-Chem Configurations

• Domain:Domain: GlobalGlobal• Horizontal Grid Spacing:Horizontal Grid Spacing: 2 ° x 2.5°2 ° x 2.5°• Horizontal Coordinate:Horizontal Coordinate: Lat x LonLat x Lon• Vertical Grid Spacing:Vertical Grid Spacing: 30 layers 30 layers • Simulation Period:Simulation Period: 20012001• Meteorological Input:Meteorological Input: GEOS3GEOS3

Regional Modeling ConfigurationsRegional Modeling Configurations

• Features : Models-3/CMAQ One-Atmosphere Features : Models-3/CMAQ One-Atmosphere (multi-pollutants) Modeling (multi-pollutants) Modeling• 2001 and 2006 2001 and 2006 JanuaryJanuary, , AprilApril, , JulyJuly andand OctoberOctober scenarios scenarios

• 12 & 36-km CMAQ Domain in Lambert Conformal projection East Asia and 12 & 36-km CMAQ Domain in Lambert Conformal projection East Asia and North AmericaNorth America

• Model Setup :Model Setup :• NASA’s TRACE-P and updated emission inventories and local emissions and NASA’s TRACE-P and updated emission inventories and local emissions and

GEIA/MODIS biogenic emission inventoryGEIA/MODIS biogenic emission inventory

• Emissions Processing: Spatial allocation (GIS/Gridding) and Temporal, Emissions Processing: Spatial allocation (GIS/Gridding) and Temporal, speciation needed for the M3/CMAQ simulationsspeciation needed for the M3/CMAQ simulations

• 14 vertical layers14 vertical layers

• Meteorology : MM5 V3.7, AQM: CMAQ V.4.6Meteorology : MM5 V3.7, AQM: CMAQ V.4.6

• Chemical mechanism: CB-IVChemical mechanism: CB-IV

• Initial and Boundary Conditions: GEOS-ChemInitial and Boundary Conditions: GEOS-Chem

EUEUSASA

EAEA

Regional Modeling Receptor Domains: Regional Modeling Receptor Domains: East Asia (36km & 12km)East Asia (36km & 12km) Continental USA (36km only)Continental USA (36km only)

Model Domains & Scenario MatrixModel Domains & Scenario Matrix

Regional Modeling Scenario Matrix: Regional Modeling Scenario Matrix:

Receptor: East Asia Receptor: ConUSASR3NA SR6NA SR3EA SR6EASR3SA SR6SASR3EU SR6EU

Effect of Using Monthly Average OEffect of Using Monthly Average O33 value for value for

CMAQ boundary condition (BC)CMAQ boundary condition (BC)

From Continental USA domainFrom Continental USA domain

1)1) US standard Profile Boundary US standard Profile Boundary (fixed value)(fixed value)

2)2) GEOS-Chem Boundary GEOS-Chem Boundary (average hourly output)(average hourly output)

Max = 55 ppb

Max = 62 ppb

Max = 66 ppb

Max = 55 ppb

Max = 62 ppb

Max = 66 ppb

Max = 50 ppb

Max = 64 ppb

Max = 66 ppb

Max = 50 ppb

Max = 64 ppb

Max = 66 ppb

Max = 69 ppb

Max = 70 ppb

Max = 69 ppb

Max = 69 ppb

Max = 70 ppb

Max = 69 ppb

Max = 55 ppb

Max = 62 ppb

Max = 66 ppb

Max = 55 ppb

Max = 62 ppb

Max = 66 ppb

Max = 50 ppb

Max = 64 ppb

Max = 66 ppb

Max = 50 ppb

Max = 64 ppb

Max = 66 ppb

Max = 69 ppb

Max = 70 ppb

Max = 69 ppb

Max = 69 ppb

Max = 70 ppb

Max = 69 ppb

Max = 55 ppb

Max = 62 ppb

Max = 66 ppb

Max = 55 ppb

Max = 62 ppb

Max = 66 ppb

Max = 50 ppb

Max = 64 ppb

Max = 66 ppb

Max = 50 ppb

Max = 64 ppb

Max = 66 ppb

Max = 69 ppb

Max = 70 ppb

Max = 69 ppb

Max = 69 ppb

Max = 70 ppb

Max = 69 ppb

Monthly Average OMonthly Average O33 - JULY - JULY

Time series of hourly OTime series of hourly O33 - JULY - JULY

Profile Profile

GEOS GEOS

GEOS GEOS Profile Profile

Not much effect on Average O3 when using average monthly data. Time series data is needed

This fixed value have very similar average as GEOS-Chem average

0

20

40

60

80

100

Near Huntsville, AL

0

20

40

60

80

100ProfileGEOS

Near Boulder, CO(34.28N, 85.96W)(40.27N, 105.54W)

Even hourly time-series show very little different in concentration if we use monthly average data as BC

Effect of Using Monthly Average OEffect of Using Monthly Average O33 value for value for

CMAQ boundary condition (BC) – ContCMAQ boundary condition (BC) – Cont

Monthly Maximum OMonthly Maximum O33 - JULY - JULYGEOS GEOS PerturbationPerturbation

+0.6

+2.1

+1.34 +0.2 +3.15

+0.58

60

80

100

120

140

160

SEATTLE LAX DENVER CHICAGO ATLANTA NEW YORK

Do

mai

n M

axim

um

Ozo

ne

(pp

bv)

GEOS Profile

Profile Profile

Downscaling Effects to SR Scenarios Downscaling Effects to SR Scenarios – – East Asia ReceptorEast Asia Receptor

GEOS-Chem – SR1 GEOS-Chem – SR1 CMAQ 36 km – SR1CMAQ 36 km – SR1

Monthly average OMonthly average O3 Concentration - JULY Concentration - JULY

Monthly Average OMonthly Average O33 Perturbation – JULY Perturbation – JULY

-0.01

-0.05

-0.01

+0.00-0.03

-0.06

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

SR1-SR3EU

SR1-SR6EU

SR1-SR3SA

SR1-SR6SA

SR1-SR3NA

SR1-SR6NA

O3

Pertu

rb

ati

on

(p

pb

)

GEOS-Chem 36km resol. CMAQ

AverageAverage

Downscaling Effects to SR Scenarios Downscaling Effects to SR Scenarios East Asia Receptor – ContEast Asia Receptor – Cont

GEOS-ChemGEOS-Chem CMAQ 36 kmCMAQ 36 km

Monthly average OMonthly average O33 Concentration – JULY SR1 Case Concentration – JULY SR1 Case

Similar pattern is found between GEOS-Chem to CMAQ, GEOS-Chem shows about 5 to 10 ppbv different. This mostly is caused by different in emission inventory and meteorology

CMAQ 12 kmCMAQ 12 km

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

SR1-SR3EU

SR1-SR6EU

SR1-SR3SA

SR1-SR6SA

SR1-SR3NA

SR1-SR6NA

Ave

rag

e O

3 P

ertu

rbat

ion

(p

pb

) GEOS-Chem 36km resol. CMAQ12km resol. CMAQ

Monthly Maximum and Average OMonthly Maximum and Average O33 Perturbation – JULY Perturbation – JULYMaximunMaximunAverageAverage

+0.02

+0.12

+0.02

+0.02

+0.00

+0.01

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

SR1-SR3EU

SR1-SR6EU

SR1-SR3SA

SR1-SR6SA

SR1-SR3NA

SR1-SR6NA

Ma

xim

um

O3 P

ert

urb

ati

on

(p

pb

)

36km resol.CMAQ12km resol.CMAQ

MaximumMaximum

Regional Modeling Receptor Domains: Regional Modeling Receptor Domains: Continental USA (36km only) – SR6EUContinental USA (36km only) – SR6EU East Asia (36km & 12km) – SR3EU, SA & NA; SR6EU, SA & NA East Asia (36km & 12km) – SR3EU, SA & NA; SR6EU, SA & NA

Regional Impacts on CMAQ 36km/12km domainsRegional Impacts on CMAQ 36km/12km domains

BeijingBeijing

ShanghaiShanghai

WulumuqiWulumuqi

PRDPRD

ChengduChengdu

TaipeiTaipei

TokyoTokyo

SeoulSeoul

12 km domain12 km domain36 km domain36 km domain36 km domain36 km domain

East Asia (36km & 12km)East Asia (36km & 12km)USA (36km)USA (36km)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

SR1-SR3EU

SR1-SR3NA

SR1-SR3SA

SR1-R6EU

SR1-SR6NA

SR1-SR6SA

OC

T -

O3

Per

turb

atio

n (

pp

b)

Regional Impacts – EAST ASIARegional Impacts – EAST ASIA

12 km Resolution12 km Resolution - Surface – Maximum Perturbation- Surface – Maximum Perturbation

12 km Resolution12 km Resolution0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8

SR1-SR3EU

SR1-SR3NA

SR1-SR3SA

SR1-R6EU

SR1-SR6NA

SR1-SR6SA

JAN

- O

3 P

ertu

rbat

ion

(p

pb

)

OVERALL BEIJING SHANGHAISEOUL TAIPEI PRD

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

SR1-SR3EU

SR1-SR3NA

SR1-SR3SA

SR1-R6EU

SR1-SR6NA

SR1-SR6SA

AP

R -

O3 P

ertu

rbat

ion

(p

pb

)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

SR1-SR3EU

SR1-SR3NA

SR1-SR3SA

SR1-R6EU

SR1-SR6NA

SR1-SR6SA

JUL

- O

3 P

ertu

rbat

ion

(p

pb

)

JANJAN APRAPR

OCTOCTJULJUL

Could up to 1.4 ppb

Beijing could reach about 1 ppb

different

36 km Resolution36 km Resolution

Surface – Maximum PerturbationSurface – Maximum Perturbation

12 km Resolution12 km Resolution

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

SR1-SR3EU

SR1-SR3NA

SR1-SR3SA

SR1-SR6EU

SR1-SR6NA

SR1-SR6SA

JA

N -

O 3 P

ert

urb

ati

on

(p

pb

)

BEIJING SHANGHAI SEOULTAIPEI PRD

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

SR1-SR3EU

SR1-SR3NA

SR1-SR3SA

SR1-SR6EU

SR1-SR6NA

SR1-SR6SA

AP

R -

O 3 P

ert

urb

ati

on

(p

pb

)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

SR1-SR3EU

SR1-SR3NA

SR1-SR3SA

SR1-SR6EU

SR1-SR6NA

SR1-SR6SA

JU

L -

O 3 P

ert

urb

ati

on

(p

pb

)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

SR1-SR3EU

SR1-SR3NA

SR1-SR3SA

SR1-SR6EU

SR1-SR6NA

SR1-SR6SA

OC

T -

O 3 P

ert

urb

ati

on

(p

pb

)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

SR1-SR3EU

SR1-SR3NA

SR1-SR3SA

SR1-SR6EU

SR1-SR6NA

SR1-SR6SA

JA

N -

O 3 P

ert

urb

ati

on

(p

pb

)

BEIJING SHANGHAI SEOULTAIPEI PRD

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

SR1-SR3EU

SR1-SR3NA

SR1-SR3SA

SR1-SR6EU

SR1-SR6NA

SR1-SR6SA

AP

R -

O 3 P

ert

urb

ati

on

(p

pb

)0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

SR1-SR3EU

SR1-SR3NA

SR1-SR3SA

SR1-SR6EU

SR1-SR6NA

SR1-SR6SA

JU

L -

O 3 P

ert

urb

ati

on

(p

pb

)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

SR1-SR3EU

SR1-SR3NA

SR1-SR3SA

SR1-SR6EU

SR1-SR6NA

SR1-SR6SA

OC

T -

O 3 P

ert

urb

ati

on

(p

pb

)

Regional Impacts – EAST ASIA – ContRegional Impacts – EAST ASIA – Cont

12 km Resolution – JULY SR1 - SR6EU 12 km Resolution – JULY SR1 - SR6EU

Upper layer has stronger OUpper layer has stronger O33

transport than at the surfacetransport than at the surface

113º E 122º E

122º E

113º E

110º E

Vertical Distribution – MaxVertical Distribution – Max

Distance Effect on Receptor, East AsiaDistance Effect on Receptor, East Asia

12 km Resolution – JULY SR1-SR6EU12 km Resolution – JULY SR1-SR6EU

3D-Vertical distribution3D-Vertical distribution

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

110115

120125

130

2025

3035

40

Ozo

ne P

ert

urb

atio

n (p

pb)

LON

LAT

SR1-SR6EU (JULY)

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

The latitude that separating the effect is at about 32 degree

for EU

0.34

0.37

0.100.26

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

JAN APR JUL OCT

O3 P

ertu

rbat

ion

(p

pb

)

EAST ASIA BEIJING SEOULSHANGHAI TAIPEI PRD

0.82

1.041.20

0.80

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

JAN APR JUL OCT

O3 P

ertu

rbat

ion

(p

pb

)

US SEATTLE DENVER CHICAGO

NEWYORK LAX ATLANTA

0.35

0.45

0.240.33

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

JAN APR JUL OCT

O3 P

ertu

rbat

ion

(p

pb

)

US SEATTLE DENVER CHICAGO

NEWYORK LAX ATLANTA

Regional Impacts – ORegional Impacts – O33

North America Vs. East AsiaNorth America Vs. East Asia EA to NA EnhancementEA to NA Enhancement (SR1 - SR6EA)(SR1 - SR6EA)

East Asia - AVERAGEEast Asia - AVERAGENorth America - AVERAGENorth America - AVERAGE

North America - MAXNorth America - MAX

0.98

1.19

0.99

0.78

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

JAN APR JUL OCT

O3 P

ertu

rbat

ion

(p

pb

)

EAST ASIA BEIJING SEOULSHANGHAI TAIPEI PRD

East Asia - MAXEast Asia - MAX

EA influencing NA is stronger than NA

influence EA

NA to EA EnhancementNA to EA Enhancement (SR1 - SR6NA)(SR1 - SR6NA)

EAST ASIA OUTFLOW STUDYEAST ASIA OUTFLOW STUDYNOx Emissions increase from 2001 to 2006NOx Emissions increase from 2001 to 2006

2006 NOx Emission

Zhang Q, et al. [Atmos. Chem. Phys, 2009]

NOx emission Comparison between 2001 and 2006

53783399

9973614

13439

9197

5371

1166

5096

20830

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

POWER INDUSTRY RESIDENTIAL TRANSPORTATION Total

Sector

NO

x E

mis

(Gg

/ye

ar)

2001 NOx emission

2006 NOx emission

2006 NOx emission

TRANSPORTATION: 24%

RESIDENTIAL: 6%

INDUSTRY: 26%

POWER: 44%

RESIDENTIAL: 33%

TRANSPORTATION: 28%POWER: 4%

INDUSTRY: 35%

2006 NMVOC Emission

Zhang Q, et al. [Atmos. Chem. Phys, 2009]

NMVOC emission Comparison between 2001 and 2006

546

4973 5985 6564

18021

961

8056 7601 6630

23247

05000

1000015000200002500030000

POWER INDUSTRY RESIDENTIAL TRANSPORTATION Total

Sector

NM

VO

C E

MIS

(Gg

/ye

ar)

2001 NMVOC emission

2006 NMVOC emission

EAST ASIA OUTFLOW STUDYEAST ASIA OUTFLOW STUDYNMVOC Emissions increase from 2001 to 2006NMVOC Emissions increase from 2001 to 2006

Outflow due to emission changeOutflow due to emission change

East Asia– Maximum in July 2001East Asia– Maximum in July 2001

Maximum OMaximum O3 3 outflow outflow from EAfrom EA can can increaseincrease 4-8ppbv due to emission increase4-8ppbv due to emission increase

MAX JUL 2006 –JUL 2001MAX JUL 2006 –JUL 2001

864k

m to

rig

ht b

ound

ary

504k

m

144km

Outflow due to emission changeOutflow due to emission change

East Asia– Maximum in OCT 2001East Asia– Maximum in OCT 2001

Maximum OMaximum O3 3 outflow outflow from EAfrom EA can can increaseincrease 4 ppbv due to emission increase4 ppbv due to emission increase

MAX OCT 2001 - OCT 2006MAX OCT 2001 - OCT 2006

864k

m to

rig

ht b

ound

ary

504k

m

144km

Summary and future workSummary and future work

• The average IC/BC compared with hourly IC/BC have very little effect on The average IC/BC compared with hourly IC/BC have very little effect on simulation of average ozone concentration.simulation of average ozone concentration.

• Downscaling improves the maximum ozone perturbation. The value could reach Downscaling improves the maximum ozone perturbation. The value could reach as much as 1.6 ppb in difference, which is 3 – 5 times higher than the average as much as 1.6 ppb in difference, which is 3 – 5 times higher than the average valuevalue

• For East Asia, Spring time shows the strongest perturbation response, compared For East Asia, Spring time shows the strongest perturbation response, compared with other seasons.with other seasons.

• Maximum OMaximum O33 outflow from EA can increase 4-8ppbv due to emission increase outflow from EA can increase 4-8ppbv due to emission increase from 2001 to 2006, which may create more influence to North Americafrom 2001 to 2006, which may create more influence to North America

Summary

Future work• Run 2006 GEOS-Chem, downscale to local scale and simulate the impact from Run 2006 GEOS-Chem, downscale to local scale and simulate the impact from

East Asia to North AmericaEast Asia to North America

Thank you for your attention

Questions?