Impact of Geopolitics on Middle Eastern Trade

Impact of Geopolitics on Middle Eastern TradeINTERNATIONAL TRADE LOGISTICS

Group 2Arani Das 10ALekha Kamath 23ASaman Nayyar 40ASoham Gandhi 50AVishwadeep Mishra 55A

CONFLICT IN YEMEN

IRANIAN NUCLEAR DEAL

Iraq Conflict and Rise of ISISThe rise of jihadis inIraqandSyriais disrupting trade routes across the Middle East and casting a shadow over economic prospects as trucks queue at borders, food and energy prices increase and exports falter.The rapid advance of theIslamic State of Iraq and the Levant known as Isis, in Iraq is causing economic difficulties for Turkey and Jordan, as well as in Iraq itself. It is also reversing a decade of growth intrade across the broader region.Because of fighting in Iraq, and neighbouring Syria, where Isis also holds territory, many Turkish exports to the Gulf have been diverted to roll-on roll-off ferries from the Mediterranean port of Iskenderun and onward to Egypt or through the Suez Canal to Saudi Arabia. A few also disembark at the Israeli port of Haifa to access the Jordanian market, although this route gives only limited access to the Gulf, where imports passing through Israel are banned.About 1,700 trucks a day were passing through Habur, Turkeys main crossing into Iraqi Kurdistan, last week but beyond the boundaries of the KRG the country can be perilous: the Turkish foreign ministry and the countrys chambers of commerce are working together to evacuate Turkish executives and workers from areas of dangerRegionally, ISIS will disrupt and degrade the economy of several states, and that in turn may lead to further political chaos -- which is precisely ISIS's goal. And ripples from the stones ISIS is throwing at the Middle East's economy may be felt around the world.

FINDINGSTrade between Iraq, Syria and neighboring Middle Eastern nations grew rapidly in the middle and late 2000s. But since 2011, violent protest, government crackdowns and civil war have had repercussions on trade across the region In 2000 exports were spread relatively evenly across the region. Turkey and Syria each had a number of major trade partners, while Iran and Iraq each relied heavily on a single trade partner.Between 2000 and 2012 trade within the region soared from $4bn to $55.7bn. This growth was driven primarily by Turkey, whose intra-regional exports increased from $1bn to $26.5bn. By this point Syria relied heavily on Iraq for export revenues.The onset of Syria's civil war had a major impact on regional trading patterns. Total regional trade contracted by 13 per cent between 2012 and 2013, and flows between Syria and Iraq fell by 16 per cent.From 2000 to 2002, trade between the seven territories in the region Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and the Palestinian Territories averaged just $4.2bn annually, according to the World Bank. From 2008 to 2010, that trade soared to an annual average of $29.7bn.