Impact of the deficits of the monsoon rainfall significant despite the technology inputs

YIELD ANALYSISROUGH ANALYSES

Yield Analysis (maize)Source Years

availableRange Missing

years

DES, AP Hyderabad

7 2000-2006

0

CMIE 32 1970-2001

10

World Bank 32 1956-1987

12

Yield reconstructed based on rainfall availability

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

CMIE

DESKg/h

a

Year

Yield reconstruction using three datasets

0500

1000150020002500300035004000

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

World Bank CMIE DES-AP

Kg/h

a

Year

Yield reconstruction and de-trending

0500

1000150020002500300035004000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Observed Trend

12 years data, trend

0500

1000150020002500300035004000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Observed Trend

7 years data, trend

Kg/h

a

Year

Yield residuals (=Yobs/Ytrend-1)Kg

/ha

Year

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

7 years data, residuals

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

12 years data, residuals

Yield reconstruction and de-trending

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

400019

5719

5919

6119

6319

6519

6719

6919

7119

7319

7519

7719

7919

8119

8319

8519

8719

8919

9119

9319

9519

9719

9920

0120

0320

05

Yield Trend-7 Trend-10

A low-pass Fourier-based smoother is used

Kg/h

a

Year

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5Residuals, 50y, 7y smoothing

Resi

dual

sYield residuals (=Yobs/Ytrend-1)

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5Residuals, 50y, 10y smoothing

Resi

dual

sYield residuals (=Yobs/Ytrend-1)