Impacts and responses Impacts and responses concerning Global climate concerning Global climate

change in Hungarychange in Hungary

a Joint Research Project of the a Joint Research Project of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the

Ministry for Environment and WaterMinistry for Environment and Water

The World’s climate has not been The World’s climate has not been constant. We know, it has gone constant. We know, it has gone through dramatic past changes, through dramatic past changes, but there is an increasing evidence but there is an increasing evidence that human activities are altering that human activities are altering our climate at an unprecedented our climate at an unprecedented rate.rate.

The Carpathian Basin

The Greenhouse EffectThe Greenhouse Effect

Incoming Incoming EnergyEnergy

OutgoiOutgoing ng

EnergyEnergyReflected Reflected EnergyEnergy

Energy Energy Trapped by Trapped by Greenhouse Greenhouse

GasesGases

Global temperature change (1860-1999) relative to Global temperature change (1860-1999) relative to 1961-1990 average temperature 1961-1990 average temperature

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

280

0 -

900 -

1000

-

1100

-

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-

1300

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oC

Average temperature changes in East EuropeAverage temperature changes in East Europe

mean temperature

cold

warm

„Little glacial”

ye

ar

1,5

oC

inte

rva

l

VargaVarga--HaszonitsHaszonits , 2003. , 2003. wwwwww ..vahavavahava.hu.hu

Trends in COTrends in CO22 concentrations for past 1000 years concentrations for past 1000 years

(parts per million by volume, ppmv)(parts per million by volume, ppmv)

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) (http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/)(http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/)

0

100

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'10 '20 '30 '40 '50 '60 '70 '80 '90 2000

mm

trend

y = - 0,8313x + 2223,9

1900

Changes in the annual precipitation of Hungary

Varga-Haszonits, 2003, klima.vahava@office.mta.hu

Water budgetWater budgetof the Earthof the Earth

97.41 % 97.41 % sea watersea water

99 % of sweet 99 % of sweet water is ice, water is ice,

snow or snow or undergroundunderground2.59% is 2.59% is

sweet watersweet water

1% is available1% is available

soilsoilrivers, rivers, lakeslakes

atmo-atmo-spheresphere

The VAHAVA projectThe VAHAVA project

vahavavahava

klima.vahava@office.mta.hu, klima.vahava@office.mta.hu, http//www.vahava.huhttp//www.vahava.hu

Change – Impact - Response Change – Impact - Response ((VáVáltozás - ltozás - HaHatás –tás – Vá Válasz)lasz)

vahavavahava

The main task of the project is to provide a large scale synthesis in the field of

• Exploration of complex impacts of Exploration of complex impacts of reliable scenarios on climate change;reliable scenarios on climate change;

• Response suggestions and proposals, Response suggestions and proposals, as well as emergency programmes as well as emergency programmes which may prevent or minimalize which may prevent or minimalize undesirable effects on national and undesirable effects on national and regional levels.regional levels.

Research fieldsResearch fields

Agriculture and forestryAgriculture and forestry

• Crop production, plant breeding.Crop production, plant breeding.• Pastures and grassland management.Pastures and grassland management.• Horticulture.Horticulture.• Forestry.Forestry.• Agricultural water management.Agricultural water management.• Seed production and propagation.Seed production and propagation.• Production and storage of fodder crops.Production and storage of fodder crops.• Problems related to the husbandry of grazing Problems related to the husbandry of grazing

animals.animals.• Pond fisheries.Pond fisheries.• Chances and boundaries of flood-plain farming.Chances and boundaries of flood-plain farming.• Wildlife management.Wildlife management.• Development in yield estimation methods.Development in yield estimation methods.

Nature conservation and climate changeNature conservation and climate change

• Predictable problems of protected areas. Predictable problems of protected areas. • Predictable problems of „Vulnerable Natural Predictable problems of „Vulnerable Natural

Areas”, areas of NATURA 2000, and areas of the Areas”, areas of NATURA 2000, and areas of the Ecological Network.Ecological Network.

• Effects of climate change on birds’ migration and Effects of climate change on birds’ migration and wild life habitats.wild life habitats.

• Harmonization of proceses of agriculture and Harmonization of proceses of agriculture and forestry with the protection of biodiversity.forestry with the protection of biodiversity.

• Stability of natural ecosystems and populations Stability of natural ecosystems and populations and their response related to climate change.and their response related to climate change.

Special scientific problemsSpecial scientific problems

• Climatic sensitivity of field crops.Climatic sensitivity of field crops.• Abiotic stress tolerance of crop plants Abiotic stress tolerance of crop plants

(cold tolerance, frost tolerance, heat (cold tolerance, frost tolerance, heat tolerance, drought tolerance etc).tolerance, drought tolerance etc).

• Effects of climate change on the spreading Effects of climate change on the spreading of pests and diseases.of pests and diseases.

• Land use problems in relation with water Land use problems in relation with water logged areas.logged areas.

• Land use problems related to drought Land use problems related to drought areas.areas.

Tasks of water managementTasks of water management

• Effects of climate change on water storage Effects of climate change on water storage capacities of soils.capacities of soils.

• Effect of climate change on surface and Effect of climate change on surface and subsurface water sources.subsurface water sources.

• Effect of climate change on water quality and Effect of climate change on water quality and water remediation.water remediation.

• Effects of floods and water logging on small water Effects of floods and water logging on small water catchment areas in certain climate scenarios.catchment areas in certain climate scenarios.

• Predictable problems of communal water supply Predictable problems of communal water supply in relation with climate change.in relation with climate change.

Economic and social consequencesEconomic and social consequences

• Adaptation of disaster rescue systems. Adaptation of disaster rescue systems. • Effects of climate change on transport and traffic.Effects of climate change on transport and traffic.• Predictable impacts on tourism.Predictable impacts on tourism.• Effects of climate change on energy consumption.Effects of climate change on energy consumption.• Revision of agricultural subsidy systems.Revision of agricultural subsidy systems.• Revision of insurance systems.Revision of insurance systems.• Foresight in telecommunication.Foresight in telecommunication.• Comprehensive evaluation of institutions affected Comprehensive evaluation of institutions affected

by climate change, and adaptation proposals.by climate change, and adaptation proposals.• Review and evaluation of legal systems, and Review and evaluation of legal systems, and

adaptation proposals.adaptation proposals.• Public health impacts and their consequences.Public health impacts and their consequences.

SynthesisSynthesis

In 2005 specialist working groups process research In 2005 specialist working groups process research results and reports, and elaborate a synthesis in results and reports, and elaborate a synthesis in favour of program proposals in the following fields:favour of program proposals in the following fields:

Nature conservation.Nature conservation.Economic systems in agriculture and Economic systems in agriculture and forestry.forestry.Water management.Water management.Communal systems, transport, traffic and Communal systems, transport, traffic and energy consumption.energy consumption.Human dimensions (health, education, Human dimensions (health, education, communication, legal system).communication, legal system).Social aspects.Social aspects.

The structure of the The structure of the projectproject

The project is iniciated and supervised by The project is iniciated and supervised by the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the Ministry for Environment and Water.Ministry for Environment and Water.

The Steering Committee of the project: The Steering Committee of the project: István Láng István Láng Márton JolánkaiMárton JolánkaiLászló CseteLászló Csete

The project is supported by the Scientific The project is supported by the Scientific Council. Council.

Project participants:Project participants:

Research institutions (institutes, universities)Research institutions (institutes, universities)

Scientific committees of the AcademyScientific committees of the Academy

Governmental bodies and organizationsGovernmental bodies and organizations

Commercial companiesCommercial companies

Non-governmental organizationsNon-governmental organizations

Individual specialistsIndividual specialists

Expected resultsExpected results

• Hopefully new scientific results in certain Hopefully new scientific results in certain disciplines.disciplines.

• Comprehensive evaluation concerning the Comprehensive evaluation concerning the impacts and consequences of climate impacts and consequences of climate change.change.

• Elaboration of complex program proposals Elaboration of complex program proposals for prevention or reduction of harm on for prevention or reduction of harm on national and regional level.national and regional level.

• Scientific support to future strategic plans Scientific support to future strategic plans and implementations of the Government.and implementations of the Government.

Thank youThank you

http://www.vahava.huhttp://www.vahava.hu

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