impacts of climate variability and change in agricultural

Impacts of climate change and variability on agriculture in Ethiopia

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Impacts of Climate Variability and

Change in

Agricultural Systems of

Semi-Arid Areas of

Ethiopia

Edited by

Habtamu Admassu Mezgebu Getinet

Abebe Kirub

Habtamu Admasu et. al.

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Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change

in Agricultural Systems

of Semi-Arid Areas

of Ethiopia

©EIAR, 2010 ›=ÓU›=' 2003 Website: http://www.eiar.gov.et Tel: +251-11-6462633 Fax: +251-11-6461294 P.O.Box: 2003 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia ISBN: 978-99944-53-58-X


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Contributors Tolessa Debele, Abuhay Takele, Kinde Tesfaye, Olani Nikus, Tewodros Mesfin, Aklilu Mekasha, Melesse Temesgen, Gizachew Legesse, Degefe Tibebe, Mohammed Yesuf, Emana Getu, Tesfaye Gissila, and Yesuf Kedir

Prepared for the Project Managing Risk, Reducing Vulnerability and Enhancing of Agricultural Productivity under Changing Climate in the Greater Horn of Africa’

Funded by Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA) program, a joint initiative of Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID)


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Contents Preface 6

Background 7

Historical pespective ............................................................................................ 7

Physiographic Features ....................................................................................... 8

Climate ..................................................................................................................... 8

Natural Resources .............................................................................................. 12

Agro-ecology ........................................................................................................ 14

Agriculture ............................................................................................................ 18

Climate Change and Variability 20

Introduction........................................................................................................... 20

Annual Rainfall Variability ................................................................................. 20

Long-term Trends in Rainfall ............................................................................. 21

Droughts in Ethiopia ........................................................................................... 24

Climate Change Projections ............................................................................. 28

Records of Natural Disasters and Climate Extremes .................................. 30

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on different sectors 34

Climate Change and Variability on Agriculture ............................................ 34

Climate Variability and Change on Crop Production and Productivity ... 34

Climate Variability on Length of Cropping Period and Crop Choices ..... 36

Seasonal Climate Variability on Crop Yields ................................................. 37

Climate Variability and Changes on Crops Diseases and Pests ............... 38

Vulnerability of Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Systems ................................. 42

Climate Variability and Change on Range Vegetation Composition ....... 44

Climate Variability on Agricultural GDP Growth Rates .............................. 46

Climate Variability and Change on Natural Resources .............................. 47

Climate Variability and Change on Lakes Tana, Ziway and Haramaya .. 48

Climate Change Impacts on Nile and Awash Rivers ................................... 51

Climate Variability and Change on Forest Resources ................................ 51

Climate Variability on Ecosystem and Biodiversity ..................................... 52

Climate Variability and Change on Human Health ....................................... 52

Impacts of Climate Change on Farm Power .................................................. 53

Climate Variability and Change on Livelihood Systems ............................. 54

The Changing Environment of Central Rift Valley ........................................ 56

Climate Variability and Change on Food Security ....................................... 57

Climate Variability and Change on National Economy ............................... 59

Climate Change on Millennium Development Goals .................................... 60

Strategies for Managing Risks and Reducing Vulnerability 61

Adaptations Options to Climate Variability and Climate Change ............. 61

Managing Risk and Reducing Vulnerability in Crop Production ............... 62

Adaptation to Rainfall Variability and Cropping Risks ................................ 74

Applications of Agro-meteorological Information ....................................... 75

Adaptation to Cope with Impacts of Climate Change ................................. 77

Adaptation Strategies for Livestock ............................................................... 81


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Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources ................................................. 83

Adaptation Strategies for Forest Resources ................................................ 84

Adaptation Strategies for Farm Power ........................................................... 85

Adaptation Strategies for Household Fuel Supply ....................................... 88

Adaptation Strategies for Livelihood Systems ............................................. 88

Adaptation Pre-requisites to Climate Variability and Change .................. 89

Policies Related to Climate Change 92

Conservation Strategies and Environmental Policy ................................ 92

Population Policy ............................................................................................. 93

Science and Technology Policy .................................................................... 93

Energy Policy .................................................................................................... 93

Agricultural Policy ........................................................................................... 94

Water Policy ...................................................................................................... 94

Forestry Action Plan ........................................................................................ 94

Disaster Prevention and Preparedness and Early Warning Policy ...... 95

Health Policy ..................................................................................................... 95

Solid Waste Management Plan of Addis Ababa City Council ................. 95

Approaches to disaster/risk management in national policy - Famine Early Warning Systems (FEWS) .............................................................................. 95

National level mitigation strategies ............................................................. 96

Summary and Conclusions 97

References 100

Appendices 109


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Preface In Ethiopia, the agricultural sector which provides the livelihood of large segments of the population is predicted to be especially vulnerable to climate change because the country already endures high temperature and low and erratic rainfall. The sectors’ reliance on relatively basic technologies limit its capacity to adapt. This book documents and compiles the information on climate variability and change and its impacts on agricultural systems and livelihoods of Ethiopian people. It presents existing and emerging evidence along with coping strategies adopted or developed and relevant to Ethiopia.Accordingly, attempt was made to assess various documents on past and current impacts on climate variability and change on the agricultural productivity and vulnerability of livelihoods of the people of Ethiopia. The research team hopes that this document will enhance the understanding of stakeholders about the past and current impacts of climate variability and change implications at scales ranging from household and community level to those at district, regional and national levels. The document can also serve as an entry point towards the development of better strategies for efficient management of climate variability and adaptation to projected climate change in the country. In terms of research, it can form the basis for future research focus and development efforts to bridge the adaptation gaps and there by to prepare Ethiopia for better adaptation as climate change unfolds. Editors Habtamu Admassu Mezgebu Getinet Abebe Kirub Henry Mahoo


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Chapter 1

Background

Historical pespective Ethiopia is one of the ancient settlements and civilizations in the world with rich cultural and architectural heritages. Ethiopia has a population of about 74.2 million with a growth rate of 3.0% (UN (2005). The life expectancy of the people is about 49 years. The average population density is about 34 persons per km2 with a range of 8-95 people per km2. At current pace of 3% per annum growth rate and the population estimates of 74 million, Ethiopia is the third largest in Africa after Nigeria and Egypt. Ethiopia's population is mainly rural with about 85% of the people living in rural areas. There is great number of distinct ethnic groups in Ethiopia. Hence, the country is a multi-national with major ethnicity/race estimates being Oromo (40%), Amhara and Tigray (32%), Sidama (9%), Somali (6%), Afar (4%), Gurage (2%), and the rest (6%). The major religions are Christian and Islam; almost half of the people are Muslims, while over a third belongs to the Ethiopian Orthodox Church and about 15% practice traditional religions.

Geographical Location ETHIOPIA is located in East Africa, between 30 241 and 140 531 North and 320 42 1 and 480 121 East. It is a vast country with an area of about 113.4 million ha. Ethiopia is, bordered in the west by the Sudan, in the east by Somalia and Djibouti, in the south by Kenya, and in the northeast by Eritrea (Fig 1.1).

Figure 1.1. Location Map of Ethiopia showing regional states Source: CSA, 2000


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Physiographic Features Ethiopia falls into four main geographic regions from west to east. That is Ethiopian Plateau, the Great Rift Valley, the Somali Plateau, and the Ogaden Plateau. The Ethiopian Plateau, which is fringed in the west by the Sudan lowlands (made up of savanna and forests), occupies more than 50% of the country. It has several high mountains and is generally 1,524–1,829 m high but reaches much loftier heights, including Ras Dashen (4,620 m), the highest point in Ethiopia. The plateau slopes gently from east to west and is cut by numerous deep valleys (Fig. 1.2). Figure 1.2 shows the geography of Ethiopia with her great geographical diversity with high and rugged mountains, flat-topped plateau, deep gorges, river valleys and plains. About one third of the country is comprised of a hilly and mountainous plateau between 1500 and 3500 m. The highland is surrounded by arid and semiarid lowland plains (<1500 m). It is also divided by the southwest to northeast oriented Rift Valley (extension of the Great African Rift Valley). The Great Rift Valley traverses the country from northeast to southwest and contains the Danakil Desert in the north and several large lakes in the south. The Somali plateau is generally not as high as the Ethiopian plateau, except in the Mendebo Mountains where it attains heights of more than 4,267 m.

Figure 1.2. Topography of Ethiopia Source NMSA 2003 [show North Direction in the Map]

Climate

Climate Classification Ethiopia has a much diversified climate ranging from hot and semi-desert to mild and humid. Ethiopia is characterized by the diversity in altitude accompanying climate and ecological variations. The climate ranges from temperate on the plateau and hot in the lowlands. Lemma (1996) classified Ethiopia into four


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climatic zones adopting Traditional, Köppen’s, Throthwaite’s, Rainfall regimes, and Agro-climatic zones as shown Figure 1.3.

Figure 1.3. Climatic zones of Ethiopia Source: L. Gonfa, 1996 based on Koppen’s classification system)

Accordingly, the country is classified into 11 climatic sub-divisions (Figure 1.3) that vary from hot arid climate to cool highland climate (Lemma Gonfa, 1996). The five moisture zones are hyper arid, arid, semi-arid, dry sub humid and humid zones. The dryland areas arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid zones are generally located in the eastern half of the country. The hyper-arid zone is located over northeastern parts of Afar and southeastern parts of the Somali regional states (Engida, 2000b).

Rainfall Regimes The climate of the country is mainly controlled by the seasonal migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and associated atmospheric circulation as well as by its complex topography. It has a diversified ranging climate from semiarid desert type in the lowlands to humid and warm (temperate) type in the southwest. Mean annual rainfall distribution has maxima (>2000 mm) over the southwestern highlands and minima (<300 mm) over the Southeastern and Northeastern lowlands. In terms of rainfall pattern, Ethiopia is divided into three regions such as A, B and C (Figure 1.4). The rainfall in A region (west and northwest parts of the country) has single maxima while it has two maxima in the region B (north eastern, central and some parts of eastern regions) and region C (southern, south eastern and eastern regions bordering Somalia). Moreover, seasons are classified based on rainfall patterns (Abate, 2003). Region A has only one wet and one dry season. Region B has three seasons: dry season (October-January), small rainy season (February-May) and big rainy season (June- September). Region C has double wet (March-May and September-November) and double dry (December-February and June-August) seasons. Generally, the country has two production seasons, although the large part is dominated by main season farming, pastoral and agro-pastoral production systems, and both the short and long seasons are used to grow crops and fodder in some parts of Ethiopia. The main season contributes 93% of the annual national average crop production whereas the remaining 7% comes from the short season (Abate, 2003).

Legend:

Bwh- Hot Arid Climate

Bsh- Hot Semi Arid Climate

Bsk- Cool Dry Climate

Aw- Tropical Climate (with distinct dry winter)

Am- Tropical Monsoon Rainy Climate (with

short dry season)

Aws- Tropical Climate (criteria of both w & s

are met)


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Although crop-livestock mixing is common in most parts of Ethiopia, about 75% of the population derives its livelihood from crops while 10% depend on livestock (Abate, 2003). In the arid and semi-arid areas rainfall is torrential, erratic, variable, and unreliable. Rainfall amount is generally low ranging between 50 and 800 mm and varies within seasons. There is high coefficient of variability (usually > 30%) with regard to quantum, onset, and cessation of rainfall. These areas are also characterized by high rainfall intensity, usually greater than 25 mm/hour leading to severe soil erosion incidence. Due to high variability and unpredictability water stress can occur at any time during the life cycle of the crop (Hailu and Kidane 1988).

Figure 1.4. Rainfall patterns in Ethiopia. Source: Federal DPPA, Early Warning Department, 2003; the boundaries are approximate and unofficial

Temperature Mean annual temperature over Ethiopia ranges from less than 15oC over the highlands to over 25oC in the lowlands. Evapo-transpiration rates are high ranging from 1400 to 2900 mm owing to high temperature normally exceeding 25oC (Table 1.1 and Fig 1.5). Monthly potential-evaporation (PET) rates usually exceed rainfall in most parts of the dryland areas except during few peak months, July and August, of rainy seasons. Thus, the atmospheric demand for water in the dry areas is high. Sunshine is abundant especially in the arid and semi-arid areas. Although season length varies across the country, one can identify three seasons, namely; dry season (October- January), short rainy season (February - May) and long rainy season (June - September).

Table 1.1. Thermal Zones of Ethiopia (LUPRD Classification-B)

Temperature (0C)

Terminology Area ha %

>27.5 Hot 28442412.54 25.11 21-27.5 Warm 52904522.07 46.71 16-20 Tepid 26716798.38 23.59 11-15 Cool 4794316.37 4.23 7.5-10 Cold 287117.25 0.25

Legend

1-Region A – Single Maxima

The wet period decrease northward

A1-June/July-August/September

A2-April/May-October/November

A3-February/March-October/November


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Thermal Class TerminologiesHotWarmTepidCoolColdVery Cold

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<7.5 Very cold 118731.62 0.10 Grand total 113263898.23 100

Figure 1.5. Thermal zones of Ethiopia

Climate Sensitivity Agriculture in Ethiopia is rainfed and is very sensitive to climatic fluctuations. The sector is predicted to be especially vulnerable to climate change because the country already endures high temperature and low and erratic rainfall, which limit its capacity to adapt to changing climate. Ethiopia has a diverse climate, both spatially and temporally. Within the main crop-producing regions, annual rains are expected in two seasons. The short rains usually fall between February and May, then, after a short dry interlude, the main rains normally turn up around June and last up until September. Short rains serve land preparation, pre-season weed control and planting of short-cycle crops – this account for some 7–10% of national crop production, though locally they may be much more important. If the short rains set in well and do not peter out, this is also a potential sowing time for the country’s main food crops, the longer and medium maturing cereals such as maize, sorghum, and millet, which will be harvested in October–December. More often, however, these crops are sown at the outset of the long rains. As well as being important for land preparation, the short rains are vital for the coffee crop, which flowers during this period and for regeneration of the pastures used to feed livestock. Thus failure of the short rains affects food and, cash crops, as well as livestock with serious consequences on food security. The penalties become even more serious when the long rains also fail or are greatly reduced. The east and north part of the country are the most vulnerable to drought and are the most food insecure. The west generally receives reliable rains. But even when the rains fall as expected, Ethiopia is unable to meet its food needs. Since the mid-1970s the country has had to rely on food aid almost every year to feed a great majority of its people. Resource poor farmers who are dependent on low input and low output rainfed mixed farming with traditional technologies dominate the agricultural sector which is often prone, very much victimized by


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drought. For instance, almost one million people died after crops failed during drought of 1984. Years of drought and famine (1984/1985, 1994/1995, 2000/2001) have been associated with very low contribution of agriculture to the country’s total GDP, whereas years of good climate (1982/83, 1990/91) were associated with better contributions. Such trends clearly explain the relationship between the performance of agriculture, climate, and the total economy. The government has given loftiest priority to this sector and has taken forward major steps to boost its efficiency. However, various tribulations are holding this back. One major cause of under-production is climatic extremes such as drought and floods. Most often crop failure results in famine. This climate related disasters make the nation dependent on food aid. Clearly, Ethiopia’s traditional smallholder agriculture being almost entirely rainfed, and already very sensitive to climate variability, projected climate change is expected to pose greater challenge.

Natural Resources Ethiopia is a large country endowed with considerable untapped natural resource such as good fertile soils, rivers and lakes, biodiversity, forests and wildlife. However, Ethiopia’s current productivity is low due to backward practices, although the agricultural potential (including livestock) is believed to be great, with proper use of these resources. Soils In the dry high land areas, the soils are diverse and soil types are widely scattered often shallow in depth and mostly light textured with low organic matter content and low water-holding capacity. The soils in the arid areas are less developed and tend to be stony and shallow or even saline. Within the main soil associations there are great variation in agricultural potential related to slope, texture, and moisture, as well as local variation in the kind of the soils themselves. The general nature of soils lead to short growing periods ranging from less than 60 to120 days with one or two short unreliable growing season, respectively (NRMRD, MoA 1998). In river valleys, there are deep alluvial soils. The effects of altitude on temperature, evapo-transpiration, and texture are always compounded with those of relief.. For example, the Wello highlands are very heterogeneous with a variety of land forms, very diversified due to difference in elevation, geology, edaphic conditions, steepness and orientation in slope, wind and precipitation, land mass and relief in terrain. These factors contribute to variations very often within short distance forming different niches.

Rivers and Lakes Ethiopia is known as the “water tower” of Northeast Africa with great potential for use in irrigation. The total surface area of the 18 natural and artificial lakes in Ethiopia is about 7,500 km2. There are 12 major drainage basins many of which are trans-boundary (Figure 1.6). The total annual runoff from these basins is estimated at about 111 billion cubic meters. There are also eleven major lakes. Seven out of the eight major natural lakes are found in the semi-arid areas of the Rift Valley, (EPA and MEDAC, 1997).. Most of the important rivers which could be used for irrigation are located in the dryland areas. This includes the Awash, Wabishebelle, Genale, Dawa, Bilate, Segen, Omo, and Tekeze-Angereb-Goang. The Blue Nile River rises from its chief reservoir, Lake Tana which lies in the northwest and flows in a great semicircle before entering the Sudan, It flows through the center of the plateau. Lake Tana is Ethiopia's largest lake, while the Awash River is the only navigable river, and it drains the central part of the plateau. The Ogaden Plateau (457–914 m high) is mostly desert but includes the Wabishebelle, Genale (Juba), and Dawa rivers. Over 70% of the areas developed under irrigation are entirely in the Awash River basin.


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Figure 1.6. River Basins of Ethiopia Biodiversity Ethiopia is known for its diversified plant and animal species including high level of endemism in wild plant and animal groups. Estimates of floral endemism for Ethiopia ranges between 12 and 15 % from a total of 6,700 plant species recorded for the country. Ethiopia is rich in flora and fauna with considerable endemism. The country has the fifth largest flora in tropical Africa. It is also one of the 12 Vavilov centers, hosting 7000 species of higher plants, 277 terrestrial mammals, 862 species of birds, 201 species of reptiles, and 63 species of amphibians. Ethiopia is the center of origin and diversity of many cultivated crops and hence very important center of genetic diversity. It is the sole or the most important center for arabica coffee, tef (Eargrostic tef), enset (Ensete ventricosum), and anchote (Coccinia abyssinica). It is also the center of diversity for noug (Guizotia abyssinca) and rapeseed (Brassica carinata). It is the main centers of sorghum, finger millet, field peas, chickpea, cow pea, perennial cotton, safflower, castor bean, and sesame. Almost all of these crop species are grown in the dryland areas of Ethiopia. The Ethiopian sorghum is one of the most diverse crops distributed over a wide range of ecological ration in the country, i.e. in a range of 400 to 3000 m. above sea level (Engels, 1991). Ethiopian legumes have wider diversity such as dominant genes responsible for some unique characteristics that are not common in many parts of the world (Westphal 1974). Because of the genetic erosion in other parts of the world, Ethiopia is considered now as the most important center of genetic diversity for durum wheat, barley, and linseed (Edwards, 1991). The


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Biodiversity Institute of Ethiopia has been entrusted with safeguarding this crop genetic wealth. In1994, it had a collection of 53,625 accessions of 100 crop types in its gene bank.

Forests Ethiopia is currently characterized into twenty forest zones. These are: Nival, Alpine, Subalpine wet forest, Montane moist forest, Montane wet forest, Lower montane dry forest, Lower montane moist forest, Lower montane wet forest, Subtropical desert, Subtropical desert scrub, Subtropical thorn woodland, Subtropical dry forest, Subtropical moist forest, Subtropical wet forest, Tropical desert, Tropical desert scrub, Tropical thorn woodland, Tropical very dry forest, Tropical dry forest and Tropical moist forest. Deforestation in the country has been going on at alarming rate which has reduced the forest area from more than 40% of the land area to the current cover of less than 3%.

Wildlife Ethiopia has nine national parks, three sanctuaries, eight reserves and 18 controlled hunting areas. Due to the declining area under forest, wildlife has been under pressure since early 1970’s. Of the 277 terrestrial mammals found in Ethiopian, 31 are endemic to the country, 20 of which are highland forms. The country is home to many endemic bird species. There are 862 bird species recorded in Ethiopia, of which 261 or 30.2% are species of international concern. Between 862 birds species, 16 are endemic to Ethiopia and the other 14 are endemic to both Ethiopia and Eritrea. This is a higher avian endemism than any other country in mainland Africa. There are 214 pale-arctic migrant species occurring in Ethiopia of which a total of 47 species are found in Ethiopia. Generally, Ethiopia holds five endangered, 12 vulnerable, and 14 near threatened species. There are about 63 sites globally recognized as endemic bird areas in Ethiopia of which the main ones are: Central highland, Southern highland, and Juba-Shebelle Valley. The Abijata- Shalla Lakes, National Park (Southern Rift Valley) has also been proposed as a park for the high diversity of water birds. It is also estimated that at least six reptiles and 34 amphibians are endemic.

Agro-ecology

Ethiopia has 18 major and 49 sub-agro-ecologies. Figure 1.7 shows the 18 major agro-ecological zones of the country (MoA, 1998).

Figure 10. Major agro-ecological zones of Ethiopia

Agro-ecologic ZonesHot AridHot Semi-AridHot Sub-MoistHot MoistHot Sub-HumidHot HumidHot Per-HumidWarm AridWarm Semi-AridWarm Sub-MoistWarm MoistWarm Sub-HumidWarm HumidWarm Per-HumidTepid AridTepid Semi-AridTepid Sub-MoistTepid MoistTepid Sub-HumidTepid HumidTepid Per-HumidCool Sub-MoistCool MoistCool Sub-HumidCool HumidCool Per-HumidCold MoistCold Sub-HumidCold HumidCold Per-HumidVery Cold MoistVery Cold Sub-HumidVery Cold HumidVery Cold Per-Humid300 0 300 600 Miles N

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Fig 1.7 Major agro-ecologies The various agro-ecologies greatly differ in the length of cropping period, which presents multiple opportunities and also pose challenges for crop and livestock production (Table 1.2).


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LGP TerminologiesAridSemi-AridSub-MoistMoistSub-HumidHumidPer-Humid

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Table 1.2. LGP classes and area coverage of different agro- ecologies for the different LGP Classes

Symbol LGP Days Terminology Area coverage (ha) %

A < 45 Arid 24546150.63 21.67 B 46 – 60 Semi-Arid 6895709.90 6.09

C 61 – 120 Sub-Moist 12660064.61 11.18 D 121 – 180 Moist 20243950.25 17.87 E 181 – 240 Sub-Humid 24416970.00 21.56 F 241 – 300 Humid 15719650.05 13.88 G > 300 Per-Humid 8781402.79 7.75 Grand Total 113263898 100

Source: MoA, 1998

The LGP ranges from short duration periods of 45 days in the semi-arid agro-ecologies to long duration periods of over 300 days in the humid agro-ecologies (Fig 1.8).

Figure 1.8. Length of growing period (LGP) for different agro-ecological Zones Source (MoA, 1998)

Drylands Agro-ecology According to NRMRD (MoA 1998), the dryland areas of Ethiopia have very wide and diversified agricultural environments and farming systems. The dryland areas cover eight of the 18 major agro-ecologies (Figure 1.9) and has 20 sub-agro-ecologies (Figure 1.10) covering about 66.6% of the total landmass of the country. This includes arid, dry semi-arid, moist-semi-arid, and dry-sub humid zones.


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The natural resources particularly, water and soil, vary within short distance. This is also true with the biological resources such as vegetation, crops, animal species, and others. Drylands are prevalent mainly in north, east, the central, south and southeastern parts of the country lying usually below sea level (-126 m) in the Afar depression in the northeast to 2400 m elevation in the northern highlands. Thus, they include highlands in mid-altitude and lowlands areas. The dryland areas provide crop, rangeland resources, forest products, water, energy, and minerals. They encompass key watersheds and wetlands and are preponderance of biological diversity. The biological diversity of drylands is of particular importance because it includes many unique biomes. The wetlands in dryland areas are often of crucial importance in supporting migratory birds and also a number of native species. The most important domesticate food crops and livestock originated in the drylands. Many human and livestock population in Ethiopia depend directly on the drylands for their daily livelihoods. There are numerous agricultural production and productivity problems relating to environmental degradation; social, economic, and policy constraints threatening the livelihood security of people in the drylands. Water stress and low soil fertility are among the major problems. Soil fertility decline is a core problem capping agricultural production in the dryland areas even when there is enough water form natural rainfall or other sources. For instance, during the good rainfall year of 1998 (with good distribution in almost all over the country including the drylands), there were about 2 million people food insecure due to poor soil fertility particularly in the northern part of Ethiopia.

Figure 1.9. Major dryland agro-ecological zones There is a general agreement that with a little more water and improved soil fertility; dryland areas have a comparative advantage over higher rainfall regions due to reduced disease pressures; and more sunlight. This new agronomic environment gives a much higher return to plant breeding. In spite of the great potentials, farming families in the dryland areas have been victimized by seasonal variability in


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rainfall, and extreme events such as floods and droughts. The vulnerability of the dryland systems are expected to worsen (Dryland Research Strategy, 1999). The summary of the farming systems, crop and livestock species, potentials, constraints, area coverage and location of the dryland agro-ecology is presented in Appendix 1.

Figure 1.10. Sub agro-ecologies of dryland of Ethiopia Source: MoA, 1998

Agriculture

The agriculture sector in Ethiopia is the main economic stay; it provides the livelihoods of large segments of the population. It directly supports about 85% of the population in terms of employment and livelihood. It contributes about 50% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and generates about 90% of the export earnings. Small-scale subsistence farmers dominate the production of crops. This sector is mainly rainfed, and relies on relatively backward technologies. Hence, production and productivity are extremely low. Major crops include cereals, pulses, oil Seeds, stimulants, fruits, sugarcane, fibers, vegetables, tuber crops, industrial crops, and export crops such as coffee. Subsistence mixed farming and nomadic pastoralism are widely practiced in the highlands and lowlands respectively. It is estimated that 16.5 million hectares (14.8% of the country) is under cultivation. About 73.6 million hectare (66%) of the country’s land area is estimated to be potentially suitable for agricultural production. The potential irrigable land in the country is about 3.7 million ha. Ethiopia has the largest livestock population in Africa and the tenth largest in the world. Currently there are about 70 million heads of livestock. It constitutes a large component of the Ethiopian agricultural sector and is well integrated with the farming systems found in the highlands and provide the sole means of subsistence for the nomadic pastoralists in the lowlands. Figure 1.11 shows the proportion of total population dependent on the two main sectors of agriculture.


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Figure 1.11. Crop, livestock dependent population of Ethiopia Source: DPPC, 2003

Farming Systems Farming systems in Ethiopia are highly complex, diversified and vary between agro-ecologies and socio-economic conditions. As indicated earlier, rainfed crop production is the basis of all subsistence farming in most parts of the country and accounts for more than 95% of the land area cultivated annually. In general the farming systems are mixed type and both animal and crop productions are important. Because of high human and livestock population the landholding is generally small. A typical farming household in semi-arid areas owns a small area of land (generally <1 ha) on which crops are produced and variable number of cattle, goats, donkeys, and sheep are kept. The holdings are not only small and marginal, but also unconsolidated and scattered making it difficult for farmers to work on all their fields at the same time. Traditionally, in the dryland areas of Ethiopia local communities steered their own agriculture. Crop production, forestry, and animal husbandry calendars are socially organized and customary laws regulated. With increase in demographic pressure, arable lands were fragmented, fallows shortened, the productivity of the agriculturally suitable land declined, marginal lands and steeper slopes were encroached upon for cultivation, and trees were cut to create more land for cultivation and fuel. This led to severe land degradation. Farmers in the semi-arid zone tend to rely on local cultivars and must deal with poor soils of low nutrient levels, and occasionally severe pest infestations. Substantial part of the cultivated land is devoted to food grains, primarily sorghum and tef, but also maize, barley, haricot bean, lentil, and field peas. Faba beans are also grown in some areas where the agro-ecology is conducive. The traditional sorghum cultivars, which are late to maturity, are the most preferred dryland crop. Planting for this crop starts in late April or early May depending on the location, and generally takes place after sufficient rain providing good soil water build up in the upper soil profile. Apparently, false start in the rainy season often cause loss of initial planting and necessitates re-seeding. These shorten growing period, and delay planting of medium and long maturity crops and cultivars. In such circumstances, farmers resort to early maturity crops and cultivars that are planted late. Fertilizer and manure applications are too small to replace crop nutrients withdrawal; long rejuvenating bush fallow is shortened or eliminated altogether because of land pressure. Erosion of topsoil and failure to return organic matter contributes further to soil deterioration. Oxen drawn farm implements or hand hoe are used for tillage, and cultivation, and harvesting is done manually. Soil crusting makes it difficult to work the soil and land preparation must await until early rains soften the soil. The need to both till and plant as soon as possible after the initial rains start creates special demand on labor that usually delays planting. Labor is usually in short supply not only during planting/land preparation, but also during weeding and harvesting periods.


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Chapter 2

Climate Change and Variability

Introduction

HE quantitative machinery of climate influences natural systems, industries, communities, regions and nations, productivity and reliability of supplies (Allen Consulting Group, 2005). Climate generally affects everyday life, because any slight deviation from ‘normal’ has serious

consequences. The incidence and magnitude of climatic disasters today is a widely recognized threat to the survival, dignity and livelihood of countless individuals, particularly the poor. Climate variability in Ethiopia over the last three decades of the 20th century has been the major cause of droughts, famines, (Comenetez and Caviedes, 2002). It is now understood that climate or environmental crises have a compelling influence over social structures and political stability in vulnerable traditional societies such as Ethiopia (McBeill, 2000). Ethiopia’s climate is influenced by general atmospheric and oceanic factors that govern the weather system (Sirocko, 1996; and Bekele, 1997). Although Ethiopia receives rainfall during the spring and autumn seasons depending on location, the summer rainfall contributes about 74% of the annual rainfall in the country. A weakness or failure of the rainfall in one or more of the rainy seasons has disastrous consequences in the country. During the last century, Ethiopia’s climate variability and the consequent agriculture as well as socio-economic crises have continuously attracted global attention. Shortage of precipitation and its variability in space and time had led to recurrent and substantial shortfalls in agricultural production, which claimed tens of thousands of human and animal lives (Wolde-Mariam, 1984; Degefu, 1987; and Hurni, 1993). During these years, the country suffered significant production shortfall in the agricultural sector by about 20% resulting in a decrease of total annual production by about one million tons (Osman and Sauerborn, 2002). In spite of great past and current climate variability and its influence in Ethiopia, there is no systematically documented database and information on its impact on society, environment, and the economy. As a result, development projects envisaging food security, resource management and rural development failed to consider climate variability and long-term climate change (Osman and Sauerborn, 2002).

Annual Rainfall Variability

In Ethiopia, the start and end of the rains and their patterns of distribution and the length, frequency and probability of dry spells in the growing season are key elements affecting planning, performance, and management of agricultural operations (Kindie, 2004). This is because unusual rainfall amounts and distributions usually lead to poor harvest and/or complete crop failure, and shortage of pasture and animal feeds. Such extreme conditions finally result in drought with a resultant depletion of assets, societal vulnerability, mass migration, and loss of life.

T


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Examination of long-term annual total rainfall from 92 meteorological stations in the semi-arid areas indicated a coefficient of variation ranging from 20 to 89%. Of the 92 stations considered, 15 had above 50% coefficient of variation indicating the extreme variability of rainfall over the country (Figure 2.1). The variability indicated above implies great uncertainty in expectation and hence great risks due to inter-annual variability is not to be unexpected in any given year.

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250

CV (%)

Annual total rainfall, mm

Figure 2.1. Relationship between annual total rainfall and its coefficient of variation Source: Habtamu, Degefie, and Gizachew, Unpublished data

Long-term Trends in Rainfall

In Ethiopia, rainfall behavior is better studied than any other climatic parameter because of its intra- and inter- season variability both in space and time. Analysis of rainfall for the central highlands of Ethiopia (Addis Ababa, Debre Markos, Debre Zeit, Ejaji, Fiche, Kombolcha, Majete, Sheno, Shola, Tulu Bolo and Wonji) over the period of 1898-1997 showed extreme variability and a general decreasing trend (Osman and Sauerborn, 2002). In addition positive rainfall deviations from the long-term mean in the first and negative deviations in the second half of the 20th century and these precipitation lows coincided with ecological crises. The positive departures observed during the first half of the 20th century are highly pronounced in the first three decades (Figure 2.2). Osman and Sauerborn (2002) noted that the second half of the 20th century suffered predominantly negative rainfall deviations, with summer values frequently lower than the long-term average. Similar findings were reported by Seleshi and Demaree (1995) for northern Ethiopia and Eritrean highlands where high concentrations of meteorological drought over 1948-1973 period were observed in Addis Ababa. They further reported meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought in Ethiopia in the second half of the 20th century.


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Figure 2.2. Long-term summer rainfall time series of the central highlands of Ethiopia Source: Osman and Sauerborn (2002)

Figure 2.3. Departure of long-term summer rainfall from its long-term average in the central Ethiopian highlands Source: Osman and Sauerborn (2002)

Pooled rainfall data over 42 meteorological stations during 1953-2002 periods showed a relatively constant trend. However, examination of regional data indicated a slight decline in rainfall trend in the northern and southeastern parts of the country while there was a slight upward trend in the central part of the country (Figure 2.3). Moreover, analysis of data for each individual weather station showed either increasing (Addis Ababa) or decreasing (Jijiga) rainfall trend (Figure 2.4) and Figure 2.5).


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Figure 2.4. Annual rainfall variability and trends

Figure 2.5. Annual rainfall trends at Jijiga and Addis Ababa Recent vulnerability assessment studies predict decrease in rainfall over the northern parts of Ethiopia. The investigation with three global climate models also indicated a high risk of more frequent droughts under climate change (Board and Agrawal, 2000). In addition, there has been a warming trend in temperature over the past 50 years. The average annual minimum temperature over the country has been increasing by about 0.25 0C every ten years while average annual maximum temperature has been increasing by about 0.10C every decade. Drought related disasters have increased over Ethiopia since the early 1970s. Climate change studies indicate that clear rising trend in average and minimum temperatures over the country, which signals negative consequences on people, environment, and economy.

J i j i g a A n n u a l R a i n fa l l

y = - 7 . 2 5 1 3 x + 1 5 0 9 3

0

2 0 0

4 0 0

6 0 0

8 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 6 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 9 5 5 1 9 6 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0

a n n u a l r a i n f a l l

L i n e a r ( a n n u a l ra in f a l l )

A d d i s A b e b a A n n u a l r a i n f a ll

y = 1 . 7 8 1 x - 2 3 3 3

0 . 0

2 0 0 . 0

4 0 0 . 0

6 0 0 . 0

8 0 0 . 0

1 0 0 0 . 0

1 2 0 0 . 0

1 4 0 0 . 0

1 6 0 0 . 0

1 8 0 0 . 0

1 9 5 5 1 9 6 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0

T o t a l

L i n e a r (T o t a l )


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Droughts in Ethiopia

Chronology of Droughts Throughout its history, Ethiopia has encountered a number of drought crises. Table 2.1 lists major droughts in chronological sequence.

Table 2.1. Chronology of El Nińo and drought/famine incidence in Ethiopia

El Nińo years Drought/famine periods Regions affected 1539-41 1543-1562 Hararghe 1618-19 1618 Northern Ethiopia 1828 1828-29 Shewa 1864 1864-66 Tigray and Gondar 1874 1876-78 Tigray and Afar 1880 1880 Tigray and Gondar 1887-89 1888-92 Ethiopia 1899-1900 1899-1900 Ethiopia 1911-1912 1913-1914 Northern Ethiopia 1918-19 1920-22 Ethiopia 1930-32 1932-34 Ethiopia 1953 1953 Tigray and Wollo 1957-58 1957-58 Tigray and Wollo 1965 1964-66 Tigray and Wollo 1972-73 1973-74 Tigray and Wollo 1982-83 1987-88 Ethiopia 1986-87 1986-87 Ethiopia 1991-92 1990-92 Ethiopia 1993 1993-94 Tigray, Wollo, Central Ethiopia

Source: Quinn and Neal, 1987; Degefu, (1987)

Frequency of Droughts NMSA (1987) has compiled frequent and disastrous droughts in Ethiopia based on information obtained from chronicles, archived data, historical texts, records of the levels of the Blue Nile in Egypt, travelers’ and missionary’s’ dairies, European settlers notes and folk songs (Table 2.2). Table 2.2 shows increase in the frequency of droughts from one in 100 years in the 1st century to one in six years in the 20th century and also once in 3 years around the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. In general, the intensity, frequency and the effects of droughts have increased since the mid 1970s (USAID, 2003 and ECBP, 2007). Besides climate variability, the dramatic increase in the frequency of drought in the past three decades is attributed to global climate change.

Table 2.2. Frequency of occurrences of drought events

Year interval Number of disasters

Average recurrence (years)

253BC-42 BC 5 40 12AD-787AD 6 100 832AD-968AD 3 45 1006AD-1200AD 4 48 1252-1340 5 18 1400-1789 26 15 1800-1900 10 10 1900-1987 14 6 1988-2002 5 3


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Source: NMSA, 1987

Spatial Coverage and Probability of Drought occurrences Almost all parts of Ethiopia have experienced some degree of drought over the past three thousand years although the frequency, intensity, and duration vary from one region to another. The most drought prone areas of Ethiopia are the northern and northeastern regions (Tigray, parts of Wollo, Gondar and Afar), the eastern (Somali Regional State, Hararghe) and southeastern (parts of Bale) and the southern (Borena) parts of the country (Comenetez and Caviedes, 2002; Wolde-Georgis et al., 2001; and Wolde-Mariam, 1986). The areas that are less affected by severe droughts and ensuing famines are the regions located in the central highlands and in the uplands descending to Sudan (Comenetez and Caviedes, 2002). According to ECBP (2007), the most drought prone areas of Ethiopia are: Central and Western Tigray; North Gondar, North and South Wollo and Oromiya zones of Amhara Region; East, North and West Shewa zones and Hararghe areas of Oromiya region; South Omo, Gurage, Sidama and Hadiya Zones of SNNPR, and Dire Dawa city. A pattern of drought progression has been indicated by Wolde-Mariam (1986). Accordingly, drought and famines begin to be felt in the northeast part of the country and then extend southward along the Awash Valley into the Southern regions of Hararghe and Bale. As the seriousness of drought mounts, the central highland regions of Wollo, Shewa, Arsi, Kafa, and Wollega become involved. The last regions to fall under the influence of dryness, livestock mortality, and increased lack of staple crops are the western regions of Gojam, Gondar, Wollega, and Illubabor (Wolde-Mariam, 1986). The intensity and frequency of drought also vary depending on the season type. For example, in 1971, 1973, 1975, 1977 and 1984, more than half of the administrative regions of the country were affected by drought because of lack of the short rains. The 1975 drought was the most severe and affected 11 of the 13 administrative regions. The year 1987 was the period when there was shortage of the long rainfall and as a result more than 50% of the regions comprising 70% of the total area of the country were under drought. Droughts as a result of shortage of long rainfall were also recorded from 1969-72 and from 1984-87 (Wolde-Giorgis, 1997). Records of drought events and their intensities and historical rainfall analyses indicated that long rainfall is more consistent, with the occurrence of few and mild droughts, than the short rainfall (Kindie, 2004b).

Causes of Drought Studies indicate that the decrease of precipitation in sub-Saharan Africa is associated with the occurrence of the warm phase of ENSO, that is, to the development of sea surface warming on the equatorial Pacific (Comenetez and Caviedes, 2002; Wolde-Georgis, 1997). ENSO refers to the coupling of El Niño (oceanic component) and the Southern Oscillation (atmospheric component). El Niño refers to the warming of the ocean waters off the coast of Peru during the wintertime of the northern hemisphere, which is believed to originate in the central or eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (WMO, 1987). The Southern Oscillation (SO) is a seesaw like motion of surface pressure with centers of action around the Indonesia-North Australia region and the Southern Pacific. ENSO affects the rainfall regime of Ethiopia by affecting its rain producing weather systems during the short and long rainy seasons. The main mechanisms for Ethiopia’s weather patterns during the short season are the interaction between the extra-tropical and tropical weather systems. Displacement of the Arabian ridge or


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anticyclone to the North Arabian Sea, penetration of large amplitude troughs in the westerlies into the lower latitudes, and the southward bend of the subtropical jet stream (STJ) at the upper level are the major rain producing mechanisms from February to May (Bekele, 1997). According to the NMSA (1996) report, the ITCZ, the southwest Indian Ocean anticyclone, the heat lows, the low-level jet (LLJ), and the South Atlantic anticyclone are the major low level rain producing atmospheric levels during the main rainy period (June to September). The tropical easterly jet (TEJ) and the Tibetan anticyclone are the two important upper-level atmosphere features during this period. The tropical disturbances forming over the Arabian Sea and the southwest Indian Ocean also have direct and indirect influences on Ethiopian weather during the short and long seasons (Bekele, 1997). The strength and position of these atmospheric systems vary from year to year so do the rainfall amount. The spatial and temporal variation of the rainfall is, thus, influenced by the changes in the intensity, position, and direction of movement of these rain-producing systems over the country (Tadesse, 2000). Various research findings have demonstrated the relationship between the ENSO and the Ethiopian rainfall and atmospheric systems (Krishnamurti and Kanamitsus, 1981; Haile, 1987; Hastenrath, 1990; and Bekele, 1997). The reports made it clear that the ENSO episodes are strongly linked with the various atmospheric systems and rainfall distributions over the country (Haile, 1988; Hastenrath, 1990; Bekele, 1997; and Wolde-Georgis, 1997). The principal cause of drought and extreme large-scale climate variability in the country is associated with the fluctuation of the global atmospheric circulation which is triggered by the seas surface temperature (SST) anomalies occurring during the ENSO events that significantly impact on the displacement and weakening of the rain producing mechanisms (Haile, 1988 and Bekele, 1997). There is strong belief that the occurrence of the various droughts in Africa, especially in Eastern and Southern Africa, are caused by physical process related to the occurrence of ENSO events thousands of kilometres away (Haile, 1988; Glantz, 1993 and Wolde-Georgis, 1997). Convincing evidence about the occurrence of El Nińos and their deleterious consequences for agricultural and pastoral communities in Ethiopia has been presented by Wolde-Mariam (1986) and Caviedes (2000). The occurrence of the most devastating drought events in Ethiopia are linked to the occurrence of El Nińos in the Pacific Ocean. The strong positive association between ENSO and droughts in Ethiopia is due to atmospheric tele-connections, that is, linkages of seemingly disconnected weather anomalies over great distances (Glantz et al., 1991; Wolde-Georgis, 1997). The coincidences of warm ENSO episodes and droughts in Ethiopia indicate that these phenomena are becoming more frequent and intense probably due to global warming (Comenetez and Caviedes, 2002). Warm ENSO events have also revealed remarkable simultaneity of droughts in Ethiopia and the Sahel with droughts in India, Indonesia, Australia, and Southeast Asia (Hastenrath, 1990). Comenetez and Caviedes (2002) demonstrated the association between monsoon failures in the Indian Ocean and drought in the Horn of Africa through examination of the inter-annual variation of rainfall at Addis Ababa. In addition to ENSO events, the spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia is significantly influenced by topography (NMSA, 1996 and Tadesse, 2000), which is the main cause for micro-level rainfall variability. As indicated above, Ethiopia has been facing serious impacts of climate variability throughout its history. However, the intensity and frequency of the variability has dramatically increased during the last three decades probably as a result of climate change.

Trends of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Projections According to IPCC (2001), climate change refers to any change in climate over time whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. According to UNFCCC (2001), climate change refers to a change in climate that is attributable directly or indirectly to human activity that alters atmospheric


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composition. In general, climate change refers to changes in long-term trends in the average climate, such as changes in average temperatures and rainfall. On the other hand, climate variability refers to changes in patterns, such as rainfall, weather, and climate. There is general agreement that climate change is caused by excess emission of greenhouse gasses. Developed nations and the fast growing ones like China and India emit more than 95% of the greenhouse gasses (CO2, CO, CH4, N2O, and SO2). However, Ethiopia’s emission of CO2 in 1998 was negligible compared to 2.1% in Africa and 8% in the world (UNFCCC, 2001; 2002). The National inventory of GHG was conducted during 1990-1995 covering seven Gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, CO, NOX, NMVOC, and SO2) across four sectors: Energy, Agriculture, LUCF, and Waste). The results are shown in Table 2.3. From Table 2.3, the inventory for the year 1994 indicates very low contribution of the country to greenhouse emissions, yet the country is one of the most vulnerable and is becoming a victim of the looming disaster of climate change.

Table 2.3. GHG emissions in Ethiopia, 1994

Sector CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 eq Energy 2,285 194 3 7,289 Industry 310 - - 103 Agriculture - 1,540 19.7 38,455 Waste - 46 1.5 1,418 LUCF -15,063 (net) 28 0.2 ??

Table 2.4 details CO2 emissions from different sectors as estimated by Earth trends (2003), and compare the total emission by sector across Ethiopia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the World. Table 2.4 shows that Ethiopia’s emission to be the lowest. Figure 2.5 shows that the largest proportion of emission in Ethiopia came from gas flaring and cement manufacturing, and the least from solid and liquid fuels. On the other hand, Figure 2.6 compares per capita emissions for the periods of 1950, 1975, and 1998 across Ethiopia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the world indicating that the Ethiopian emission during 1950’s was almost none and an increasing trend over the period to 1998. Whereas Figure 2.7 shows CO2 emission by sector during 1999 (Figure 2.8) it shows that transportation sector followed by manufacturing and construction industries to be the largest emitters while the rest contribute least. The overall presentations make it clear that Ethiopia still today emits very negligible CO2 as compared to sub Saharan and world averages.

Table 2.4. Ethiopia’s green house emission estimates

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emission (thousand metric tons)

Ethiopia sub-Saharan Africa World

Total emissions, 1998 1990 515,001 24,215,376 Percent change since 1990 -33% 10% 8% Emissions as percent of global CO2 production 0.0% 2.1% - Emissions in 1998 from: Solid fuels Liquid fuels Gaseous fuels Gas flaring Cement manufacturing

0 1,579 0 0 411

292,852 151,843 16,330 42,110 11,865

8,654,368 10,160,272 4,470,080 172,208 758,448

Per Capita CO2 emissions, 1998 (thousand metric tons of CO2)

0.0 0.8 4.1

Percent change since 1990 -57% -12% -2% CO2 emissions (in metric tons) per million dollars GDP, 1998

296 X 773

Percent change since 1990 -49% X -10% Cumulative CO2 emissions, 1990-1999 9in billion metric tons)

73 16,887 933,686

CO2 emissions by sector, 1999 (in million metric tons of CO2)


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Public electricity, heat production, and auto producers

0 X 8,693

Other energy industries 0 X 1,205 Manufacturing industries and construction 0 X 4,337 Transportation 1 X 5,505 Residential 2 X 1,802 Other sectors 0 X 5,640 Total emissions all sectors 0 X 27,180 CO2 Intensity, 1999 Emission per total Energy

Consumption (metric tons CO2 per terajoule energy)

Emission per GDP (metric tons CO2/million $ ppp)

4 76

X

32

56 582

Source: Earth Trends (2003)

Figure 2.5. CO2 Emission by source during 1998 period, Figure 2.6. Per capita CO2 emissions Source: Earth trends (2003)

Figure 2.7. CO2 emission by Sector, 1999 period Figure 2.8. Relative CO2 emission in Ethiopia, 1960-1998 Source: Earth trends (2003)

Climate Change Projections Studies have shown that Africa has already warmed by 0.7oC over the 20th century. Research using general circulation models (GCMs) showed that the continent could be warm by a temperature ranging from 0.2oC per decade (low scenario) to more than 0.5oC per decade (high scenario) (Hulme et al., 2001; IPCC, 2001). Simulation of future climate for 2030 and 2050 using the Canadian Climate Center Model, (CCCM); Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model, (GFDL), the United Kingdom Meteorological Office-1989 model, (UKMO-89); and GFDL-Transient Models indicated an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall over Ethiopia (NMSA, 2001). According to this simulation study, there will be an increase of temperature by 1.0 and 2.0oC and a decrease of rainfall by about 1 and 2% in 2030 and 2050, respectively (Figure 2.9). These changes in rainfall and temperature are expected to decrease revenue per hectare. 2 0 3 0 2 0 5 0 2 0 30 2 0 5 0

Projected change in rainfall (%) Projected change in temperature (oC)


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Figure 2.9. Projected changes in rainfall and temperature in Ethiopia for the years 2030 and 2050


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Records of Natural Disasters and Climate Extremes EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database provides the lists of natural disasters in Ethiopia over the last century. The disasters are summarized in three different forms in terms of number of people killed, numbers affected and economic damage due to the disasters. Tables 2.5, 2.6 and 2.7 are from CRED/EM-DAT (2007), showing top 10 natural disasters recorded in Ethiopia. Table 2.5 lists the number of people killed over the period spanning from 1965 to 2006 due to drought, disease epidemics and floods. Table 2.6 also lists the total number of people affected by drought and flood during 1965 to October 2006. On the other hand, Table 2.7 details the overall economic damages as a result of disasters like drought, earth quake and flood over the past century. Epidemics outlined include Diarrhoeal/Enteric (Cholera), Intestinal protozoa (Dysentery), Meningitis, Measles, Arbovirus (Yellow fever suspected), Meningitis (Meningococcal), Meningitis (Meningococcal disease), Unknown, Diarrhoeal/Enteric, Diarrhoeal/Enteric(Acute watery diarrhoea), Diarrhoeal/Enteric(Acute Watery Diarrheal Syndrome). The overall summary of the natural disasters in Ethiopia from 1906 to 2007 are presented in Table 2.8. For some natural disasters (particularly floods and droughts) there is no exact day or month for the event, and for other disasters (particularly pre-1974) the available record of the disaster does not provide an exact day or month. Global circulation models suggest that, in Africa climate will become more variable with climate change. Although the exact nature of the changes in temperature or precipitation, and extreme events are not known and still debatable, there is general consensus that extreme events will increase and may get worse (Elasha et al., 2006). According to IPCC (2001a), changes will be manifested in some extreme climate phenomena indicating that extreme events, including floods and droughts, will be increasingly frequent and severe in Africa, particularly in the Horn of Africa. Frequently occurring types of disaster in Ethiopia are drought, flood, landslide, thunderstorms accompanied by lightening and hail, frost, forest fire, and earthquake. The first two are the most common. Associated with adverse weather conditions outbreaks of locusts (on crops), tsetse fly (a vector for trypanosomaisis), and human disease outbreak like yellow fever, malaria, and meningitis were also observed. Flooding and droughts are now common across Ethiopia. It is probable that the increased frequency of recorded disasters results from a combination of climatic change and socio-economic and demographic changes (Elasha et al., 2006).

Table 2.5. Top 10 natural disasters sorted by numbers of

people killed

Disaster Date Killed

Drought May-1983 300,000

Drought Dec-1973 100,000

Epidemic Sep-1988 7,385

Drought Jul-1965 2,000

Epidemic Jan-1985 1,101

Epidemic 1981 990

Epidemic 1-Jan-1970 500

Flood 5-Aug-2006 498

Drought Jun-1987 367

Flood 13-Aug-2006 364

Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net

http://www.em-dat.net/


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Table 2.6. Top 10 natural disasters sorted by total number of people affected

Disaster Date Total affected

Drought 2003 12,600,000

Drought May-1983 7,750,000

Drought Jun-1987 7,000,000

Drought Oct-1989 6,500,000

Drought Dec-1973 3,000,000

Drought Nov-2005 2,600,000

Drought Sep-1969 1,700,000

Drought Jul-1965 1,500,000

Drought Feb-1997 986,200

Flood 27-Oct-2006 361,600


Table 2.7. Top 10 natural disasters sorted by economic damage costs

Disaster Date Damage US$ (000's)

Drought Dec-1973 76,000

Drought Jul-1998 15,600

Earthquake 25-Aug-1906 6,750

Flood 23-Apr-2005 5,000

Flood 15-Aug-1994 3,500

Flood 5-Aug-2006 3,200

Flood 20-May-2005 1,200

Drought Sep-1969 1,000

Flood 7-May-1968 920

Earthquake 29-Mar-1969 320





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Table 2.8.Nnatural disasters in Ethiopia from 1906 to 2007

No. of events

Killed Injured Homeless Affected Total affected Damage US

(000's) Drought 10 402,367 0 0 43,636,200 43,636,200 92,600 Ave. per event 40,237 0 0 4,363,620 4,363,620 9,260 Earthquake 7 24 165 420 0 585 7,070 Ave. per event 3 24 60 0 84 1,010 Epidemic 19 11,445 0 0 174,406 174,406 0 Ave. per event 602 0 0 9,179 9,179 0 Flood 43 1,896 132 175,800 1,896,238 2,072,170 13,820 Ave. per event 44 3 4,088 44,099 48,190 321 Insect Infestation 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ave. per event 0 0 0 0 0 0 Slides 3 39 10 184 0 194 0 Ave. per event 13 3 61 0 65 0 Volcano 3 66 0 0 9,200 9,200 0 Ave. per event 22 0 0 3,067 3,067 0 Wild Fires 1 0 5 0 0 5 0 Ave. per event 0 5 0 0 5 0


Flooding is also a common problem and occurs in lowlands where rivers flow over the gentle slopes with higher volume of water from the highlands. The Awash River in Afar; Baro River in Gambella; Wabeshebele, Genale and Dawa rivers in Somali; Omo, Weyto and Segen Rivers in South Omo commonly inundate large areas of grazing lands and inflict heavy loss of life and damage to resources. Flooding caused by heavy rainfall and river overflowing has regularly affected people and their property, especially those in the low lying areas of Somali, Afar, Gambella, Oromiya, Amhara and the Southern Regional States. The devastating flood incidences in Dire Dawa city, Gode in the Somali Regional State and South Omo in the South Nations and Nationalities and Peoples Regional State (SNNPRS) in 2006 are recent examples. Flash floods affect all regions depending on the intensity of rainfall. Some floods such as those of 1996 and 2006, triggered disasters which claimed the lives of hundreds of people, displaced hundreds of thousands and destroyed physical, natural and economic assets (ECBP, 2007). According to UNDHA (1995) and Osman and Sauerborn (2002), a series of flooding had inflicted environmental as well as socio-economic damage to the central highlands of Ethiopia. Floods are recurrent in some countries of Africa; even communities located in dry areas have been affected by floods. The floods had a devastating effect on livelihoods, destroying agricultural crops, disrupting electricity supplies, and demolishing basic infrastructure such as roads, homes and bridges (UNEP -Atlas, 2005). It is also not uncommon for some countries to experience both droughts and floods in the same year; the flooding experienced in East Africa is followed by periods of extended drought. Extremely cold temperatures are becoming common in the highland areas of the country exasperating the existing food insecurity. For example, the incidence of frost damage to field and vegetable crops as well as some ornamental plants grown in the valley bottoms and lower landscape positions particularly in the surroundings of sinkhole lakes and the lower positions of the sub-catchments in the highlands of East Hararghe is often taken for granted with varying degrees of severity from year to year. However, unlike other years, frost incidence occurred twice at the end of 2004 cropping season in these areas. The first incidence occurred between late October and mid to late November with some deviations



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depending on localities, and caused severe damage to field crops mainly sorghum and late planted beans and some vegetable crops.

The second frost incidence that is abnormal and almost unknown to the farmers in east Hararghe Zone of eastern Oromiya and Harari regional states occurred between January 1 and 5, 2005. For example, the temperature that was recorded at the Alemaya University (AU) campus meteorological station on 1 January 2005 was -7.5 oC (AU, 2005). Such low temperature is uncommon in the tropical climates. Besides its unexpected occurrence, the damage caused by the second frost incidence was extensive and very severe and affected plants on vast areas that are not even known to be affected in the past by the normal frost incidence. The frost severely affected field crops, vegetables, perennial cash crops of the farmers (chat and coffee) and fruit and forest trees. The unusual frost affected crops and vegetation on an area of 3,137 ha affecting 51,257 households with an estimated monetary loss of Ethiopian Birr 48.1 million (HU, 2005). Although not extensively reported, many farmers in the highland areas of the country are feeling such unusual temperatures and their devastating effects.


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Chapter 3

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on different sectors

Climate Change and Variability on Agriculture GRICULTURE IN ETHIOPIA is mostly subsistence with a high dependence on rainfall (over 95%). As a result, the country is highly vulnerable to climate variability, seasonal shifts, and precipitation patterns (WRI, 1996). Climate change could get worse and be devastating to Ethiopia.

According to FAO (1999), the general impacts of climate change on agriculture include: Reduction in soil fertility; Increasing variability in growing season conditions (shifts in start of rainy seasons, length and quality of

rains, etc); Direct and indirect decrease in livestock productivity (through higher temperatures) and indirectly

through changes in the availability of feed and fodder respectively; Increased incidence of pest attacks resulting from high temperature; Manifestation of vector and vector borne diseases; and Negative impacts on human health.

The impact on agriculture is exacerbated by the lack of adaptation strategies, which are increasingly limited due to lack of institutional, economic, and financial capacity to support such actions (FAO, 1999). Owing to limited research effort to address the multiple impacts of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture and the farm level adaptations that farmers make to cope with the potential impacts of climate change, very little is known about how climate change may affect the country’s agriculture. This seriously limits policy formulation and decision making in terms of developing needed adaptation and mitigation strategies (Deressa, 2006). Climate variability and projected changes presented in the foregoing chapter clearly revealed the vulnerability of agriculture. This chapter deals with the sectoral impacts of past and current climate variability and projected changes on agriculture, water resources, livelihoods, food security, diseases, bio-diversity, ecosystems, farm power and household fuel supply, national economy as well as MDG.

Climate Variability and Change on Crop Production and Productivity Ethiopia has about 73.6 million hectares of agricultural land of which about 66% is potentially suitable for agricultural production (MWR and NMSA, 2001). The arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas of Ethiopia account for about 70% of the total landmass and 46% of the total arable land. However the country is still unable to feed its people due to backward agricultural practices and climate variability (Thomas and Bekele, 2002). Crop production is one of the major components in food supply system in Ethiopia (Teshome, 1996). In terms of economy, crop production is estimated to contribute on average about 60% of the total agricultural value (Thomas and Bekele, 2002). Crop production by small-scale farmers is performed on

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95% of the total area and contributes over 90% of the total agricultural output (Temesgen, 2006). Because of the country’s diverse agro-ecological conditions, a large variety of crops are grown. Crop-based production system in the country (Figure 3.1) is governed by altitude, rainfall, soil type, topography and other socio-economic factors. Being predominantly rainfed, crop production system is highly affected by natural rainfall variations. Important production problems include water stress caused by the aberrant weather, soil erosion, poor inherent soil fertility, weeds, poor seedling emergence, pests, and diseases. Poor harvest and crop failure due to unreliable weather conditions are common particularly in the semi-arid areas. Consequently a series of drought have been recorded. The third assessment report by IPCC (2001) foresees a temperature rise in the range of 2° to 6° Celsius by 2100. Temperature increases in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios are in the lower range of 1.50C to 2.00C above pre-industrial revolution temperatures in 2050, and 2.0°C to 3.50C higher in 2100 (Alcamo et.al., 2005). Such temperature increases might lead to reductions in crop yields. But these losses might be offset by increases in yields because atmospheric carbon dioxide might act as “fertilizer.” The combined effect of temperature rises and carbon dioxide enhancement varies among crop types (Parry et al., 1999; Alcamo 2005). Farmers might be able to adapt to temperature increases by changing planting dates, using different varieties, or switching to different crops (Drooger and Aerts 2005; Drooger 2004). Adaptations might generate substantial transaction costs (Panne et. al. 2006). While future regional temperatures are uncertain, still more uncertain are future precipitation patterns within regions. Most climate models agree on a global average precipitation increase in the 21st century, but they disagree on the spatial patterns of changes in precipitation (Alcamo et.al, 2005), though some describe a trend of declining soil moisture (Dai, et.al, 2005). Most climate models indicate that the absolute amount of rainfall in Africa will decline as variability increases. In semiarid areas where rainfall already is unreliable, this might have severe impacts on crop production (Kurukulasuriya et. al., 2006) and the economy (Brown and Lall, 2006). Irrigation might help smoothen out variability, but is only useful if the total amount of rainfall remains sufficient to meet crop water demands. Impacts of climate variability on crop production are manifested through their effects on planting dates, growing season length, crop type or cultivar choices, and overall harvest size and productivity. Rainfed crop production in the country is influenced by the short and long rainy seasons caused by variations in annual rainfall patterns produced as a result of variations in the weather systems and topographic influences. The short rainy season in Ethiopia commences in mid-February and lasts until May, and is very important for many short maturing crop-growing areas such as southern Tigray northern Shewa, northern and southern Wello in the Amhara Region, northwestern Shewa, Arsi, Bale, East and West Hararghie Zones of the Oromiya Region, Hadiya, northern Omo, and the Kembata Alaba Tembaro (KAT) Zones of the SNNPR. Crop production from the short rainy season contributes only 5–10% to the country’s overall crop production, supplying 25–60% of the food needs. The short rains also serve to prepare for main growing season crops – maize and sorghum. Furthermore, short rains are important in the pastoral areas of the Borena, Somali, and Bale lowlands. The long rainfall season extends from June to September. With the exception of the south, all parts of the country receive rains during this period. The crops yield during the long rains contributes about 90–95% of the national crop production (Kidane et al., 2006).


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Figure 3.1. Crop production systems zones

Other cereals include oil seeds, and herbs and spices. Coffee, tea, chat, and tobacco are the major cash crops. Fruits, sugarcane, cotton, vegetables, roots, and tubers are other crops grown. Maize, sorghum, tef, and haricot bean are the major crops grown for food and cash under semi arid areas. Other crops grown are barley, Irish potatoes, wheat, lentils, and peas. Mono-cropping is predominant in the semiarid areas, but intercropping is also a common practice. Broadcasting is the dominant planting method.

Climate Variability on Length of Cropping Period and Crop Choices Climatic variability greatly impacts on seasonal rainfall dependent agricultural production. Particularly, the variability of onset date and amount of rainfall and occurrences of dry spell in the growing period affects success of cropping. Due to climate changes, delay in onset and early withdrawal of rains causes delay in the planting time denying farmers to grow their favored high yielding crops early in the season (Dryland crops research strategy, 2002). According to MoARD and NRMRD (1998), low water holding capacity of the soil in the semi arid areas limits effective length of the growing season from as short as <60 up to 120 days with one or two short, unreliable growing season, respectively. For instance the poor performance of the short rains and its total failure in many drier farming areas of the country in April and May 2002 significantly affected planting of earliest sown long cycle maize and sorghum crops, which account for 40 % of national production (DPPC, 2002; Rachel Roach, 2005). Poor early rains and associated agricultural performance was then compounded by delay of the main rains for about 1 to 1.5 months, which was the main cause of crop failure. During this period, rains also ceased earliest and some areas had less than a month growing season. As a result of impacts of climate variability, farmers in the semi-arid areas have


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abandoned crops such as faba bean, lentil, and wheat grown in the midlands areas of West Hararghe Zone. Farmers in Chiro areas are replacing traditional medium and long cycle cultivars by short-cycle sorghum, maize and haricot bean in response to declining and erratic rain fall (ICRA, 1996). Similarly, farmers in the CRV areas have replaced chickpea, field peas, and long maturing sorghum varieties by medium or early maturing varieties of other crops (ICRA, 1999). Over time there is considerable shift towards tef instead of maize and sorghum owing to early maturity and lower total water consumption (WUE) and drought escape nature. Kidane et al. (2006) reported that currently grown maize and sorghum cultivars in semi arid areas suffer water stress due to crop water availability being far lower than the crop water demand. Moreover, actual yields are very low as compared to maximum possible yield. Given the fact that farmer preferred crops and cultivars are prone to failure due to climate variability, there is a need to develop more drought tolerant crop varieties and adaptive measures to mitigate water stress problem.

Seasonal Climate Variability on Crop Yields Near complete dependence on natural rainfall and low-input farming methods are typical features of Ethiopian agriculture. Crop yield is strongly correlated with rainfall variability in Ethiopia (Lemi, 20050). Figure 3.2 depicts considerable variation in maize yield with rainfall for typical semi-arid areas of Ethiopia during 1992 to 2002 seasons. Thus, the amount and temporal distribution of rainfall is the most important factor in determining national crop production levels. On top of climate variability, climate change is predicted to present serious challenges. Therefore, crop production in the country is vulnerable to the effect of failure of rains or occurrence of successive dry spells during the growing season, which often leads to food shortage. Though food shortage resulting from adverse climatic conditions is not new in this country, it has increased in severity and there have been frequent shortages in the recent years.

Figure 3.2. Relationship between annual total rainfall and maize yield in Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia between 1992 and 2002 (Source: Habtamu, and Degefie, Unpublished data)

For instance, as a result of failure of short and long seasons in 2002, lowland areas in the North, East, South, and Central parts of the country were severely affected (FEWS Ethiopia Food Security Warning, US Agency for International Development, 30 Sept 2002). Some midland areas were also badly affected

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due to complete failure of long–cycle crops due to extended dry period between mid-April and end of July. Reduction in maize and sorghum production in drought affected lowland areas is estimated between 70% and 100%. Some surplus producing parts of the country have also been adversely affected. The overall national food availability in the country was thus low. In coffee producing areas in western, southwestern, and eastern parts of the country, harvest of coffee, the country's main cash crop on which almost 15 million people depend, declined by 30% in 2002/03 due to drought (Fews.net). Preliminary production assessment results indicate that total annual crop production in 2002 decreased by 21% compared to the five previous years (DPPC, 2002). Rainfall shortage and its impacts have been frequent in some parts of the country. For example, reduction in production due to drought is being observed every year in Boricha and Metarobi areas in southern part of the country since 2001. In 2004, shortage of short rain (MAM) resulted in maize yield losses of 80% at Boricha and 25% at Meta Robe lowlands (Rachel Roach, 2005). According to Devereux (2006), increasing crop yield reduction and high vulnerability of food production are caused by rain failure in semi-arid areas in recent years compared with the past decades (Figure 3.3).

Figure 3.3. Perceived trends in harvests in Somalia Region, 1994–2004 Source: Stephen Devereux (2006)

Climate Variability and Changes on Crops Diseases and Pests Global climate change is a major topic of discussion within both scientific and political forums. Agricultural systems have shown considerable capacity to adapt to climate changes in land management practices, crop and cultivar choice, and selection of animal species and technologies to increase efficiency of water use. They have all been used to change the geographic and climate spread of our agricultural activities. All of these activities could and will be deployed by farmers to respond to climate change, although as the degree of climate change increases the limits of this adaptive capacity may be tested. There may be some gains in some regions emerging from low levels of climate change as a result of longer growing seasons, fewer frosts, higher rainfall (Anonymous, 2005).


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Production of vegetables and fruits is seriously threatened by a number of factors among which diseases are in the forefront. Environmental conditions prevailing with air and soil, after contact of a pathogen with its host may greatly affect the development of the disease. Environmental factors that most seriously influence the initiation and development of infectious plant diseases are temperature, moisture, light, soil nutrient and soil pH (Agrios, 1988). Temperature, moisture, and combination of the two play an important role in the length of disease cycle or number of generation of a given pathogen in a crop season. Similarly, wind currents and solar radiation affect disease dispersal over geographical locations, and stimulate germination of fungal spores of economic importance. With changing global environment, it will be difficult to continue relying on what we know now. Increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has brought about a concern for rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and caused other numerous potential changes in our global climate (Norby et al, 2001). Climate change will directly impact crops, as well as their interactions with microbial pests (Rosenzweig et al, 2000). Horticultural crops mainly vegetables and fruits are known to be highly vulnerable to different diseases. The spread and epidemic of plant diseases are heavily influenced by weather variables. A number of disease outbreaks throughout the world that cause starvation, human death, and migration were heavily influenced by favorable environmental conditions. Increases in leaf area and duration, leaf thickness, branching, tillering, stem, and root length, and dry weight are well-known effects of increased CO2 on many plants (Bowes, 1993). According to Manning and Von Tiedemann (1995), elevated CO2 would increase canopy size and density, resulting in a greater biomass of high nutritional quality. When increased canopy is combined with humidity, it likely promotes foliar diseases such as rusts, powdery mildews, leaf spots, and blights. Recent studies on host-pathogen interactions in selected fungal patho-systems show two important trends about the effects of elevated CO2. First, the initial establishment of the pathogen may be delayed because of modifications in pathogen aggressiveness and/or host susceptibility. Colletotrichum gloeosporioides, causal agent of anthracnose of fruits and vegetables showed delayed or reduced conidial germination, germtube growth, and appressorium production when inoculated to susceptible Stylosanthes scabra plants under increased CO2 (Coakley et al, 1999). Similar effects in other pathosystems include a reduction in the rate of primary penetration in Erysiphe graminis (barley powdery mildew) (Hibberd et al, 1996). In these examples, host resistance may have increased because of changes in host morphology, physiology, nutrients, and water balance. A decrease in stomatal density (Betarini et. al., 1998; Bowes, 1993) increases resistance to pathogens that penetrate through stomata. In barley, although the thickness of beeswax did not play a role in resistance to E. graminis, plants in elevated CO2 were able to mobilize assimilates into defense structures including the formation of papillae and accumulation of silicon at sites of appresoria penetration (Hibberd et. al., 1996). The effect of temperature on the development of a particular plant disease after infection largely depends on the particular host-pathogen interaction. The most rapid disease development i.e. the shortest time required for the completion of a disease cycle usually occurs when the temperature is optimum. In many diseases, the optimum temperature for disease development seems to be different from those of pathogen and host. Moisture, like temperature, influences the initiation and field development of infectious plant diseases. The occurrence of economically important diseases in a particular agro-ecology is closely correlated with the amount and distribution of rainfall within the crop season. Most fungal and bacterial pathogens are dependent on the presence of free moisture on the host or high relative humidity in the atmosphere only during spore germination. Many soil plant pathogens such as damping of vegetables root diseases of fruits the disease severity is directly proportional to the amount of soil moisture (Agrios, 1988).


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At elevated CO2, increased partitioning of assimilates to roots occurs consistently in many of vegetable crops such as carrot, sugar beet, and radish. If more carbon is stored in roots, losses from soil borne diseases of root crops may be reduced under climate change. In contrast, for foliar diseases favored by high temperature and humidity, increases in temperature and precipitation under climate change may result in increased crop loss. The effects of enlarged plant canopies from elevated CO2 could further increase crop losses from foliar pathogens (Manining and Tiedemann, 1995). Unfortunately, canopy characteristics have not featured prominently in plant pathology research, despite their influence on microclimate and pathogen dispersal. Recent developments in three-dimensional modeling of plant architecture offer new opportunities to integrate canopy architecture with microclimate effects and pathogen dispersal (Wilson and Chakraborty, 1998). According to Coakley et. al., (1999), enlarged canopy of plants grown under elevated CO2 trap more conidia that, together with increased humidity in the denser canopy, leads to more severe anthracnose than on plants grown under normal concentration. The authors however indicated the the difficulty to arrive at realistic predictions of yield losses that may result from a slow and gradual climate change by extrapolating findings from controlled environment studies which generally do not substitute natural conditions. Detecting the effects of drought stress on plant resistance to infection is complicated by the fact that foliar pathogens tend to have lower infection success under dry conditions. But plant pathologists have studied the interactions between pathogen and drought stress at the scale of pathogen populations for some time. For example, it has been found that alfalfa plants inoculated with Verticillium alboatrum exhibited fewer symptoms under drought stress. For some host pathogen systems, however, resistance is apparently reduced under drought conditions (Edis et. al., 1996). Elevated CO2 and ozone also have the potential to influence the effectiveness of host resistance (Plazek et. al., 2001). Cultivar resistance to pathogens may become more effective because of increased static and dynamic defenses from changes in physiology, nutritional status, and water availability. Durability of resistance may be threatened, however, if the number of infection cycles within a growing season increases because of one or more of the following factors: increased fecundity, more pathogen generations per season, or a more suitable microclimate for disease development. This may lead to more rapid evolution of aggressive pathogen races. Climate change could affect the efficacy of crop protection chemicals in one of two ways. Changes in temperature and precipitation may alter the dynamics of fungicide residues on the crop foliage. Globally, climate change models project an increase in the frequency of intense rainfall events (Fowler and Henessy, 1995), which could result in increased fungicide wash-off and reduced control. The interactions of precipitation frequency, intensity, and fungicide dynamics are complex, and for certain fungicides precipitation following application may result in enhanced disease control because of a redistribution of the active ingredient on the foliage (Schepers, 1996). Morphological or physiological changes in crop plants resulting from growth under elevated CO2 could affect uptake, translocation, and metabolism of systemic fungicides. For example, increased thickness of the beeswax layer on leaves (Wolfe, 1995) could result in slower and/or reduced uptake by the host, whereas increased canopy size could negatively affect spray coverage and lead to a dilution of the active ingredient in the host tissue. Both factors would suggest lowered control efficacy at higher concentrations of CO2. Conversely, increased metabolic rates because of higher temperatures could result in faster uptake by and greater toxicity to the target organism. Despite the potential for important interactions, no similar studies evaluating the impacts of climate change variables on physiological aspects have been published for fungicide applications.


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Of the several African stem borers attacking maize and sorghum, only Chilo partellus is exotic. C. partellus was recorded at an elevation below 1600 meters above sea level (m), but very recently recorded at 2080 m, which could be explained by climate change. Emana et al. (2002) demonstrated that climate in general; temperature and relative humidity in particular highly influence the pest status by affecting biological parameters such as fecundity, fertility, longevity, developmental time and other life table parameters. Moreover, climate can affect the pest status by affecting the natural enemies of the pest. Studies were conducted in Ethiopia to assess the effect of climate change on C. partellus and its parasitoid C. flavipes: The spotted stem borer, Chilo partellus is one of the most important insect pests attacking maize

and sorghum in Ethiopia. Since arriving in Africa from Asia in the early 20th century, C. partellus has spread to several countries in southern and eastern Africa including Ethiopia. Evidence from Ethiopia indicated that the pest is continuing to spread to new locations and altitude ranges where it was not reported earlier. Several hypotheses have been suggested by researchers working in the area to explain reason for its rapid spatial and temporal expansion, and the prominent reason was environmental change. Laboratory investigation was carried out to observe the combined effect of relative humidity and temperature on the biological features of C. partellus in relation to its altitudinal expansion as these two physical factors have detrimental effect on the life style of insects. Three temperatures (220C, 260C and 300C) and three relative humidity (40 %, 60 %, and 80 %) regimes were tested for developmental time, longevity, potential fecundity and realized fecundity. The result obtained indicated that temperature, relative humidity and their interaction significantly affected the developmental time, adult longevity, potential fecundity and realized fecundity of the pest. Mean duration of C. partellus life cycle was 70.2 days at 22OC and 80 % relative humidity, whereas it took only 26.5 days to complete its life cycle at 30oC and 40 % relative humidity. The average adult life span of C. partellus ranged between 6.9 and11.1 days at 220C and 2.3 to 7.2 days at 300C for all levels of tested relative humidity. Developmental period and longevity of C. partellus were longer at the lowest temperature and highest relative humidity. From this study it can be concluded that C. partellus expanded its ecological requirement by adapting to both warm/hot and cool/intermediate weather conditions.

The recent development of geographic information systems (GIS) provides new avenues for analyzing spatial patterns in insect populations. Field survey data, along with GIS and statistical models were used to predict the distribution of C. partellus and Cotesia flavipes. The results obtained suggested that the distributions of C. partellus and C. flavipes were affected by rainfall and temperature. The predicted distributions of C. partellus and C. flavipes were similar.

Native natural enemies have expanded their host ranges to include C. partellus, but the impact is not sufficient to curtail its expansion and economic losses. Hence, as is the case with most introduced pests, classical biological control is a potential management approach using C. flavipes Cameron into Kenya and released it in some countries in eastern and southern Africa for the control of C. partellus. Though the parasitoid established itself in some countries, establishment and levels of parasitism vary from location to location. The current study was conducted to investigate the interactive effect of temperature and relative humidity on developmental time of two populations of C. flavipes originating from India and North Pakistan. The temperatures tested were 10, 15, 20, 25, 28, 30, 33, 35 and 40OC. The relative humidity used were 40-50, 60-70 and 80-90%. The results obtained indicated that developmental time was significantly influenced by the interaction of temperature, relative humidity, and population, suggesting the possibility of selecting populations for release depending on climatic conditions. From this study it can be concluded that for the development of both populations of C. flavipes temperature ranging from 250C to 28OC and relative humidity ranging from 40 to 70% seems optimum.

Cotesia flavipes , has been recently introduced into several countries in eastern and southern Africa for the control of C. partellus. Establishment has varied from country to country and within country, suggesting that among other factors, abiotic factors such as temperature and relative humidity may influence parasitoid performance. In this work, the effect of temperature and relative humidity on life table parameters of two populations of C. flavipes was measured. Four


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temperatures, three relative humidity and two populations of C. flavipes were tested in the laboratory. The results obtained indicated that the factors and their interactions significantly affected the population growth of C. flavipes. The intrinsic rate of increase of the North Pakistan population of C. flavipes was higher than that of the Indian population at all humidity at 28OC, but there were no differences at other temperatures or humidity.

Vulnerability of Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Systems

Livestock is an important component of the Ethiopian agricultural systems with great contribution to the household food supply and income and national economy at large. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MoARD, 2006), the sector contributes 30 and 12% to the agricultural and total GDP, respectively, excluding the values of draft power and manure. The sector also contributes from 15 to 20% to the national export market with hides and skin and leather products being the second largest export commodity of the country after coffee. At household level, it is a source of high quality food, cash income, and energy for farm activities, soil nutrient, and social prestige. The country is home for over 19.2%, 11.6%, 4.9% and 17.4% of Africa’s cattle, sheep, goat and camels, respectively (FAO, 2005) and stands first in Africa and tenth in the world. Of the total livestock population over 28% of the cattle, 60% of the goats, 28% of the sheep and all camels are found in the lowlands below 1500 m (Biruk, 2003) with significant role in the livelihood of the pastoral and agropastoral communities. Ethiopia has a huge livestock resource. The diversity in agroecological settings has endowed the country with rich animal genetic resources. The diversity is also in terms of vegetation composition and farming system. This opportunity however, has not yet been fully exploited. The increase in human population and the corresponding demand for food has increased the pressure on the sector. Nevertheless, observed and projected changes in climate and frequent occurrence of climatic extremes such as drought and flood have made the contribution of the sector far less than its potential. Climatic factors in conjunction with man-made influences have made the resource base not only unproductive, but also left food insecurity challenges to households whose livelihoods are entirely dependent on the sector. Pastoralism and agro-pastoralism as modes of production based on extensive and mobile livestock husbandry exist in all federal states but are predominant in the drylands of ,Afar, Somali and Oromia and parts of the Southern Nation Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNP, Gambella, and Dire-Dawa administrative council (MARD, 2004). Pastoralists and agro pastoralists depend on ruminants as source of food products like milk, meat, and blood in some societies. Livestock serve as financial capital banks, social prestige, social security, and for buffering drought crisis. They serve as for marriage gifts and debt payment. Nevertheless the pastoral and agro pastoral areas are under threat of resource degradation, shortage of feed, water and disease outbreaks than any other part of the country due to climate variability and changes in global climate. Both have reduced the livestock holding and productivity over years with net effects being increased vulnerability, migration, and changes in production system, and dependence on relief aid. This is true particularly after 1974 drought which ended in substantial environmental and rangeland degradation in pastoral areas (Amha, 2006). Climate fluctuations are the major characteristics of dry land areas. Vulnerability of the dry land areas is inevitable with increased emission of greenhouse gasses and associated global warming. Climate variability and change has been well documented in the pastoral agro-pastoral areas of Ethiopia. Devereux (2006) reported declining trend in annual total rainfall with increase in inter-annual variability in the Somali Regional State. The decrease in rainfall and the associated increase in temperature reduce the availability of feed and water to the pastoralists and the livestock. The changes have brought about increased loss of genetic resources, productivity and reproductively of farm animals, availability of water, vegetation composition, and productivity of rangelands.


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The dry land areas of Ethiopia are centers of diversity of animal species, breeds, strains, and their wild relatives that are of economic, scientific, and cultural interest for food production purposes. Animal genetic diversity is a fundamental natural resource for potential improvements in production and productivity of local agricultural systems, particularly in areas where climatic limitations, disease challenges and water availability dictate the type of animal that can survive and produce to support livelihood needs (ESAP, 2003). The common species of farm animals in Ethiopia include cattle, sheep, goat, camel, chicken, horse, and donkey. According to Workineh et.al (2003), there are 23 recognized indigenous cattle, 6 sheep, and 11 goat breed types in Ethiopia. Cattle breed types found in the pastoral and agro-pastoral areas of the include the Hammar, Jijiga, Mursi, Ogaden zebu, Aliab Dinka, Agnuak, Danakil, Raya Azebo, Borena, Murle, Bambawa and Jidu, sheep breed types include the Afar, and Black Head Somali sheep and long and short eared Somali goats (Workineh et. al., 2003). Information on population size, description of physical appearance, indications of their levels of production, reproduction and genetic attributes is not yet available for most of these breed types (Workineh et. al., 2003). However, it is apparent that theses breeds have been evolved through natural selection being there for years under harsh and variable climatic conditions. They have undergone physiological changes in response to drought and are tolerant to regular scarcity and seasonal fluctuations in availability of feed and water, high temperature, endemic diseases and parasites as compared to exotic breeds. However, these important traits of indigenous animals are subjected to loss with frequent drought and death of breeding animals. As post drought restocking strategy, pastoralists are forced to introduce animals of different breed types that are not well adapted to the pastoral environment. Matured male animals are often sold out to purchase female animals from the highlands. As a result, large sized lowland breeds of cattle known for their meat and milk production are gradually replaced by the smaller sized and less productive highland cattle as observed in the Borena plateau (Haile Mariam et. al., 1998; Nigatu et.al., 2003). The genetic erosion for the Afar cattle in north eastern part of the country was estimated to be between 45 and 73% (Belete, 1979) which was largely the result of the restocking programs conducted following the 1972-74 drought (Nigatu et. al., 2003). Climate variability and change on availability and quality of feed, water and livestock health The major source of feed for livestock is range vegetation chiefly composed of native grasses and browse species. Fallow land, crop residues, aftermath grazing, industrial byproducts, and improved forages. Natural pastures contribute the highest proportion of the feed across all pastoral and agropastoral areas amounting to over 76% to 90% of the total feed (MARD, 2004). The pastoral livestock production is totally dependent on range vegetation, while crop residues are available in agro-pastoral areas and agro-industrial byproducts are only available in urban areas. The use of improved forage crops is minimal in Ethiopia and limited to some irrigated areas of Afar and Somali Regional State. Over years, the availability and quality of pasture has deteriorated with amplified spatial variability. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MoARD, 2004), lowlands of western Benishangul Gumuz, Gambella and Somali Regional States have got excess dry matter yields than required to feed animals year round (Table 3.1). Except the Somali region, the western and southwestern lowlands generally produce higher amount of low quality grasses because of favorable climate. In these areas, livestock density to the available feed is low because of trypanosomaisis which is spread over 150,000 to 200,000 km2 of fertile land representing 13-17.5 % of total arable area (Workineh and Woudyalew, 2004). Pasture in the Somali Region is well spread across the whole region. But shortage of water is the most serious problem due to uneven distribution of watering points. Forages found in the remote wooded and dense bush covered areas are not at all accessible to animals. In Afar Region, lowlands of Dire-Dawa


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Administrative Council and lowlands of Oromiya Regional State are areas with great scarcity of feed throughout the year. The situation is worst particularly when drought occurs. Climate variability thus has created great variation and imbalance in availability of feeds across different regions, years and seasons.

Table 3.1. Feed balance in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas

Region DM production (ton)

DM required (ton)

Balance (ton)

Afar 1,057, 805 1,416,900 -359,095

Western Benishangul Gumuz lowlands 698,682 23,100 675,582

Lowlands of Dire-Dawa 50,482 263,300 -258,218

Western Gambella lowlands 1,497,165 658,800 838,365

Lowlands of Oromiya 7,918,290 11,390,000 -3,371,710

Southern Region lowlands 1,738,170 1,581,000 157,170

Somali 17,882,909 5,776,000 12,106,909

Source: MoARD, 2004

Ethiopia has over 22 million m3 surface and 1.9 million m3 ground water resources (MoARD, 2004). Nevertheless, scarcity of water is chronic particularly in dryland areas where rainfall is inadequate and erratic in distribution to meet the water requirement of plants and animals. The problem is aggravated by high evapo-transpiration due to high temperature, reduced rainfall and strong winds (Mesfin, 2000). In most of the lowland pastoral areas livestock are driven 30 to 50 km in search of water with longer watering interval of 3 to 4 days for cattle, 6 to 8 days for sheep and goats, and from 15 to 20 days for camels. The animals lose significant portion of body weight on long distance walk to watering points and back to grazing areas without getting feed on their ways (Mesfin, 2000). In dryland pastoral systems, traditional flood collections play key roles in coping with dry seasons water shortages. However, low rainfall, and excessive evaporation is a serious limitation. Also, this practice creates favorable condition for breeding of various insects and disease-causing agents. Up until 1976, tsetse flies have infested 98,000 km2 area of the country. More recently, however, a total of 150,000 km2 productive agricultural areas are already invaded in the west, south, and southwestern parts of the country (MoARD, 2004; Workineh and Woudyalew, 2004). Moreover there are threats of increased mosquito borne disease notably malaria and rift valley fever. Increasing snail born parasites like flukes and Bilharzia are also effects of the changes (Bonnet et. al, 2001).

Climate Variability and Change on Range Vegetation Composition Encroachment of unwanted plant species is resulting in deterioration of the rangelands in the pastoral areas. In Borena, encroachment of unwanted woody plant species have increased after the 1960s and worsened following a ban on the use of fire (Gufu, 1998). According to Coppock (1994), 15 woody plant species are considered to be encroachers in the Borena rangeland. About 40% of the total area is covered by bush (ILCA 1993), while 10% of the remaining area is estimated to be in good condition (Gufu, 1998). Among the different species, rapid expansion of Acacia drepanolobium is the most alarming. Even though there is no accurate information on types and area coverage of unwanted plant species, rapid expansion of Prosopis juliflora in Afar region is a prime concern. In the Somali Region, the rapid expansion of parthenium commonly known as congress grass into the rangelands and crop farms is also alarming. This plant species, besides reducing the size of the rangelands, makes taste of milk bitter impacting on quality of the products.


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In South Omo, local sources indicate that range areas that were once covered with good grassland, have been replaced with unpalatable hardy and woody species. In all the above cases, change in vegetation composition from grassland to woody and unpalatable plant species, has forced pastoralists to alter their livestock composition from grazing to browsing species. The implication is that, vulnerability of the livestock sector will be much higher as climate change unfolds. Rising temperatures, decreasing rainfalls and longer and more frequent droughts have increased pressure on livestock. At higher temperature, loss of moisture through evaporation and transpiration reduce growth and survival of plants. Desirable forage plant species are diminishing from grazing lands with reduced nutritional outputs of animals. The changes brought about by climate have forced herders to look for new types of animals. Cattle and sheep, which were part of the Afar herds, are now decreasing in numbers, as more emphasis is put on goats and camels. Similarly, camels were rare in Borena pastoral areas, but are becoming very common (Alemayehu, 2003). Temperature rise depresses feed intake and predisposes animals to reproductive inefficiency and disease. As a result of great climatic variability, flood is becoming frequent in lowlands where rivers flow from highlands in higher volume over the gentle slope . Awash River in Afar Region, Baro in Gambella Region, Wabishebelle, Genale, and Dawa in Somali Region, Omo, Weyto, and Segen in South Omo Region commonly inundate large area of grazing lands and inflict heavy loss of life and resources. The occurrence of flood in potential dry season grazing areas increases grazing pressure in the upland wet season. With projected climate change, these extremes are expected to be more frequent and hence will reduce the grazing areas and impact on sustainability of the sector. Reports indicate steady decline in the average cattle holding per household from as high as 90 head between 1980 and 1981 period to less than 65 head over 1996 to 1997 with cumulative mortality loss of 140 head per household in the Borena pastoral areas. Between 1980 and 1997 period, Solomon Desta (1999); Zinash et. al (2000) and Getachew et. al. (2003) estimated loss amounting USD 300 million for the entire Borena pastoralists over the 17 years period. On the other hand, the livestock holding per a household among the Somali pastoralists in Shinile Zone, have declined from 809 TLU before 1974 to 483 TLU after 1974 (Appendix 2). During the 2001/03 drought, the Somali Region alone lost more than 4.6 million livestock representing almost 25%, of the total cattle, 70% of the total small ruminants, and 5% of the total camel population of the region. This has left almost 40% of the pastoral households of the region food insecure and destitute (Amha, 2006). The species composition of livestock holding per household have also changed, the number of camels are increasing by 126.2%, goats by 73.7% and sheep by 47.1%, whereas the numbers of cattle and donkeys have declined by 77.5% and 48.6%, respectively among the Somali pastoralists after 1974 (Amha, 2006). Similarly, study reports by ICRA (1999) show decreasing trend in livestock number in Central Rift Valley. According to ICRA (1999), reduction in the number of livestock is perceived by farmers to be due to extreme variability and near total change of climate. The great reduction in livestock numbers is also due to crop failure that necessitated sell of livestock to purchase food. Livestock diseases including foot and mouth, anthrax, external and internal parasites are also contributing to the problem (ICRA, 1999). The response to climatic stress and the level of tolerance vary with the species, body condition, size and production level of the animal as well as the degree and duration of occurrence of stress. Although accurate information are currently lacking on extent of loss in productivity under the pastoral herd management system, drought simulated feeding trial conducted on different species of Somali animals in eastern Ethiopia (Amha, 2006) showed 30% weight loss and 25 % death in cattle; 50% weight loss and 25% death in case of goats, and pronounced emaciation in case of sheep when subjected to 50% and 75% reduction of the daily dry matter intake for a period five to ten weeks.


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Temperature increase above optimal range disrupts the normal physiological and biochemical activity of animals. The feed intake, reproductive efficiency, growth, and milk production continue to decline with increased mortality of young animals. The quality of pasture tends to decline with raising environmental temperature. More grazing lands will continue to be encroached by crop farming as a way out to mitigate the impact of climate variability and food insecurity. The evidence show that increasing global temperature and the observed long term decline in rainfall condition over most dryland areas of the Ethiopia will continue to threaten the sustainability of livestock industry of the country. There has been limited research to reduce the impacts of drought and scarcity of feeds. Some of the approaches adopted were Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS) in order to establish empirical relationship between weather, vegetation and re-growth potentials; soil and climate dynamics; nutritional status and livestock productivity; develop early warning systems for pastoral areas using the Spatial and Almanac Characterization tools (SCT/ ACT) for developing Nutritional Management System (NIRS/ NUTBAL), monitoring feed quality from faeces of the ruminant livestock, and Plant Growth / Yield/ Hydrology Simulation Models (PHYGROW and APEX) for monitoring grazing land herbage and crop production, respectively (Zinash et. al. 2000). Therefore, research is needed to develop adaptation strategies to sustain the livestock sector. As outlined earlier, the future of livestock production continues to be under threat of climate variability and climate changes. However, there is no effort to document information on magnitude of displacement and loss of life and productivity of the sector. Climate related research should focus on vulnerability assessment and quantify the magnitude of impacts of climate variability and change on livestock resources. Although geo-referenced early warning systems are important for drought, flood, and disease occurrences as an assist to traditional mobility patterns of the pastoralists, there are no research efforts in this area. Systems of proper information documentation for use in developing decision tools to mitigate impacts of the climate variability and changes on availability of feed and water, disease and parasite incidence, livestock mortality and grazing/ rangeland degradation are very much needed. Such modeling approaches are required to shape existing technologies and guide their application and permits choices among alternative to improve productivity of livestock in semiarid areas under the changing climate. Currently, there is no research effort to enable adaptation of the sector to climate change. The current CCAA-IDRC sponsored project being the first of the kind, offers the opportunity to address issues to prepare vulnerable communities for adaptation to changing climate.

Climate Variability on Agricultural GDP Growth Rates

Climate variability has also a direct bearing on the country's economy. According to Temesgen (2006) and Saddoff (2005) contribution of agriculture to total GDP of the country is directly related to climatic variability It shows, the percentage contributions of agriculture to GDP is very low in years of severe drought, crop failure and famine (1984/1985, 1994/1995, 2000/2001), as compared to better seasons (1982/83, 1990/91). This implies its direct impact on the country's economic performance. Similarly, Figure 3.4 depicts very close association of agricultural GDP, national GDP, and rainfall in Ethiopia indicating climate sensitivity of Ethiopian economy to be very high.


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Figure 3.4. Trend of % share of agriculture’s GDP Source: Temesgen, 2006, Central Statistics Authority, 2005

Climate Variability and Change on Natural Resources Rainfall fluctuations in East Africa have had significant short- and long-term effects on natural resource systems, particularly lakes, wetlands, and rivers (Conway et al., 2005). Climate variability represents a significant challenge for water resources management. Further changes in rainfall and river flows, caused by human-induced climate change, undermine traditional methods of water resource management. They increase the severity and frequency of floods and droughts, and increase water scarcity. This is causing major problems for people in the Nile river basin, from farmers in the Ethiopian highlands, the main source area, to those in Egypt who are almost completely dependent upon water that originates from these highlands. By affecting certain components of the hydrological cycle, especially precipitation and runoff, a change in climate can alter the spatial and temporal availability of water resources. Climate change that reduces either the overall quantity of water or the timing of when water is available for use will have important effects on agriculture, industrial and urban development. Increasing variability alone would enhance the probability of both flood and drought (William 1988). According to the IPCC report, by 2100 global average temperature would rise between 1.4 and 5.8°C and precipitation would vary up to ±20% from the 1990 level. Being one of the very sensitive sectors, climate change can cause significant impacts on water resources. Developing countries, such as Ethiopia, will be more vulnerable to climate change mainly because of the larger dependency of their economy on agriculture. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. Agricultural sector which is strongly predisposed by the availability of water is expected to suffer a lot. Rainfall in central Ethiopia provides over 50 % of the main Nile flows to Egypt. During the 1970s and 1980s, rainfall across much of the Ethiopian highlands has declined. This has contributed to the major famine of 1984-5 in Ethiopia. Low rainfall also meant that Egypt suffered a succession of low Nile flows. By 1988, Egypt was very close to a major water shortage. The impacts of climate change, including, changes in temperature, precipitation and sea levels, are expected to have varying consequences for the availability of freshwater around the world. Within the Nile basin, there is a high confidence that temperature will rise (Conway, 2005) but there are disparities between models on rainfall predictions over both the Blue Nile and White Nile (Hume et al, 2001; 2003). However, temperature rise will lead to greater water loss through evaporation placing additional stress on water resources regardless of changes in rainfall (Hume et al, 2000). Different climate model scenarios show decreases in Nile flows from zero to approximately 40% by 2025 (Strzepek et al, 2001). Dramatic decreases in water level (e.g. Rift Valley Lakes) or drying of lakes (e.g. Lake Haramaya) is a recent phenomenon in Ethiopia (Lijalem, 2006 and Furi, 2006).


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Decrease in water levels in Awash River will impact on water availability for industrial, commercial agriculture, and domestic water supply, above all the energy sector (hydropower supply) (Kiflemariam, 2006). Decreases in both surface and ground water levels in Ethiopia will affect water supply in quality and quantity for human, animal, agricultural, and industrial consumption as indicated by Elasha et al., (2006) for the whole African continent. Ethiopia’s wetlands serve as a buffer against pollution, flooding and siltation. They also provide critical ecological services, such as habitat for migratory birds, and fish breeding grounds. Wetlands also provide seasonal pasture as the water table recedes during the dry seasons. Many wetlands are hence undergoing rapid conversion to other land uses. According to UNEP (2002) and WRI (2000), water stress is likely to increase. General circulation models predict an increase in rainfall of up to 20%, a change in seasonal distribution of rainfall and an increase in air temperature of up to 5°C for this century, but there are also indications of increasing frequency and intensity of drought. According to the IPCC (2001), by 2100 global average temperature would rise between 1.4 and 5.8°C and precipitation would vary up to ±20% from the 1990 level. Being one of the very sensitive sectors, climate change can cause significant impacts on water resources. The burgeoning Ethiopia’s population will impact on available freshwater resources and wetlands in several ways. It will lead to increased pressure on the land, destruction of catchment, de-vegetation of wetlands, and devastation of forests. This will lead to secondary effects of soil erosion, overall loss of fertility of the soils and poor soil moisture retention, further destabilizing the equilibrium of the natural hydrological cycle.

Climate Variability and Change on Lakes Tana, Ziway and Haramaya Lake Tana is located at the headwaters of the Blue Nile (Abay) basin and has drainage area of 15,319 km2, the lake area. The mean annual flow at the outlet of Lake Tana is about 3.5 billion cubic meters and it varies from a maximum of 7 billion cubic meters to a minimum of 1 billion cubic meters in high and low water years, respectively. Studies using synthetic or incremental scenarios and scenarios from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to assess the sensitivity of the basin to climate change particularly possible changes in temperature and rainfall applied to the historical record for 1978–1987 reveled an increase in temperature by 2oC with no change in rainfall decreases the mean annual flow by 11.3%. When rainfall is decreased by 10% and 20% the decrease in runoff was 29.3% and 44.6% respectively. On the other hand, an increase in rainfall by 10% and 20%, the mean annual runoff increases by 6.6% and 32.5% respectively. This shows that the sub-basin is more sensitive to changes in rainfall than to changes in temperature. Based on GCM scenarios, the vulnerability of the Lake Tana sub-basin as per climate change predictions for rainfall and temperature will result in a reduction of 18.2% and 12.6% respectively in the annual runoff. Furthermore, GCMs predictions show reduction of monthly runoff by as much as 32% and 28% in the main rainy month of July, and significant reduction in rainfall in the short February to April rainy season. Assessments of vulnerability of the water resources of the Lake Tana sub-basin show that climate change is predicted to have serious implications for the hydrology of the sub-basin, affecting the magnitude and seasonality of surface flows, and increasing the frequency of extreme events such as


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drought and floods. The severity of predicted impacts, using different models in different months, varies widely, and the months in which floods and drought are predicted to occur also vary from model to model. But all the models agree that river flow will be reduced, by amounts ranging from 15% to 80% of the monthly mean, in some months of the year all over the basin. The decrease in river flow is predicted to cause small streams to dry up completely, and the magnitude of flow of the medium to large rivers will decrease significantly. Due to absence of reservoir in the sub-basin, most of the small-scale water developments’ existing water supply schemes draw directly on rivers or natural lakes. The supply of drinking water for humans and livestock depends mainly on river flow, so a decrease in the flow will have a severe impact. Because agriculture in the basin is mainly rainfed, an uneven distribution of rainfall and a decrease in or total failure of rainfall will cause crops to fail. On the other hand, the predicted increase in river flow in some months of the year will cause floods, as the natural river and stream channels may not be able to accommodate the increase. Overflowing of the channels of the minor and major rivers and an abnormal rise in the level of the lakes will flood agricultural fields and human settlements. The studies concluded that, the water resources of the Lake Tana area are highly vulnerable to climate change, especially in the distribution of runoff throughout the year. With climate change, the runoff may become much more seasonal and as a result small streams may dry up completely for part of the year. Lake Ziway, an Ethiopian Rift Valley Lake, has an open water area of 434km2 and average depth of 4 m. The area is characterized by semi-arid to sub-humid climate with mean annual precipitation and temperature of 650mm and 250C, respectively. The lake watershed, which covers an area of about 7300km2, is composed of two main rivers flowing in to the lake, Meki and Katar, and one river flowing out of the lake, Bulbula. Assessments of the level of impact of climate change on the watershed’s water availability for four future periods of 25 years until the year 2099 using the outputs of HadCM3 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM model revealed that, both precipitation and temperature show an increasing trend from the 1981–2000 (base period) level. Zeray (2006) and Zeray et al., (2006) estimated an increase by up to 29% and 9.4%, respectively of the average monthly and annual precipitation in the watershed. Seasonally, the MAM season (a small rainfall season and contributes 20-30% of the total annual rainfall) is likely to exhibit a decrease of the total precipitation share along the periods. In contrary, the ONDJF season (a dry season, which extends between October and February and contributes 10-20% of the total annual rainfall) is expected to exhibit an increase in the total share. The main rainfall season, JJAS, contributes 50-70% of the total annual rainfall. He reported, an increase in the average maximum temperature by up to 3.60C, and 1.950C; and the average minimum temperature 4.20C and 20C monthly and annually, respectively. In terms of changes in seasonality, he reported maximum and minimum temperatures, the most remarkable increase of up to 2.6°C might be observed during SJJA with only a relatively minor increment in ONDFJ season. By applying these changes of the climate variables to SWAT hydrological model to simulate future flows, Lijalem (2006) reported that, significant decline in the total average annual inflow volume into Lake Ziway by up to 19.47% for A2a- and 27.43% for B2a-scenarios except during the 2001–2025 period. He attributes the decreasing trend of the average annual inflow volume to mainly associate with the decrease in the SJJA inflow volume in the range of 11.8 and 28.4% for the A2a scenario and between 16.5 and 27.8% for the B2a scenario. He concluded in Lake Ziway Watershed, runoff is likely to decrease in the future and be insufficient to meet future demands for water of the ever-increasing population in the region. Both scenarios show a significant decline of the Lake water level and shrinkage of the lake water surface area. The reduction might be especially eminent during the 2051-2075 periods, where the lake level decline might reach up to 62 cm. Hence, the total average annual inflow volume into Lake Ziway might decline significantly, with a projected drop in the lake level up to two third of a meter Consequently, the water surface area might also shrink up to 25 km2 which is about 6% of the base period water surface area. When coupled with unbalanced supply-demand equation in


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the watershed, the same author reported this to have significant impact on the lake water balance and also worsen the recent lake level fluctuation and aerial coverage contraction. Lake Haramaya located on highland and is naturally closed lakes with a surface area of 33.2 km2 and catchment area of 140 km2 was formed within the erosion depression constituted by Mesozoic sedimentary rocks and crystalline basements. Area rainfall is bimodal with the mean annual precipitation of 751 mm. Maximum precipitation occurs in April, August and September with the highest peak in August (mean 149 mm), while the minimum is in December (mean 10.2 mm). The mean ambient temperature of the area is 160C (maximum in June, 190C and minimum December, 130C) and is classified as semi-humid and semiarid climate. The mean monthly relative humidity before the year 2003 falls between 53 and 75%. There are few seasonal springs that discharges 0.5 l/s and is a contact type between the lower sandstone and limestone formations. Due to the closed nature of the basin, hydrological outlet from the basin is mainly through evapo-transpiration and artificial abstraction while inflow to the basin is only from precipitation falling in the lake catchments. For the past many centuries, Lakes Haramaya has played very important role in environmental regulation. For the past 35 years it was the only source of drinking water for about 150,000 people living in the three towns of East Hararghe Zone. According to Furi (2006), and Tamiru et al., (2006), Lake Haramaya dried in 2005 mainly due to environmental degradation, as a result of deforestation and clearing of land for farming, which amplified the rate of siltation dramatically reducing the lakes’ volume and surface albedo, which increased the rate of evaporation. Furi (2006), and Tamiru et al., (2006) presented evidence of this impact. They used various models to estimate annual evaporation rate using (Thornthwaite and Mather soil moisture water balance method; (Dunne and Leopold 1978), Penman–Monteith model). Using the former method, evaporation rate amounts 715 mm, and the actual evapotranspiration is 641 mm. Using the Penman–Monteith model the annual potential evapo-transpiration is higher (980 mm). Using the actual evapotranspiration, effective precipitation in the basin is around 110 mm/year, which is equivalent to 15.4 Mm3. Hence, evaporation is the overriding factor for the loss of water in the lake. In addition, water abstraction is 316% higher than the effective precipitation, which is 110 mm/year. Hence, excessive evaporation and dwindling precipitation has been the major impact of climate change in the Haramaya that affected direct recharge to the lakes. The decrease in the lake level due to evaporation could accumulate the salt at the bottom of the lake. Over-pumping has left white calcite precipitate on the dry lake surface. According to Furi (2006), the high evaporation rate is due to the deforestation that has increased albedo, the increase of evaporative parameters such as temperature and wind speed that are aggravated by environmental degradation and alteration of lake basin such as clearing of vegetation in watershed and urbanization. In addition to excessive evaporation, decreasing trend of rainfall, and long dry periods have also been major factor that contributed the loss of the lake. According to Furi (2006) the relative humidity is expected to be low areas wind to be dry due to drying up of lakes.

Dead trees, bare soils, and absence of trees are the characteristic features that ended up in drying up of the Lake. The drying of the lakes have seriously affected urban residents of the three towns and the surrounding villages and livelihoods of people who depended on it for production food and cash crops, and hence has considerably affected their income and deepened their poverty. This has caused malnutrition and hunger. As well, it has resulted in population displacement. The impact of abstraction of water for irrigation purpose is equally responsible for the decreasing trend of water in the lakes of Rift Valley. Lake Adele also dried up in 2003 due to human and influence of climate. However, most of the lakes in the country are largely affected by improper water utilization. In general, the impacts of climate change coupled with overexploitation and environmental changes are serious on water availability both on the plateau and Rift Valley areas of the country. However, climatic changes play important role in changing the lake level (Coulomb et al. 2001; Legesse et al. 2003, 2004 and Alemayehu et al. 2006).


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Climate Change Impacts on Nile and Awash Rivers The Abay River (Blue Nile) starts in the Northwestern parts of Ethiopia, joins the White Nile at Khartoum, and ends in the Mediterranean. The Basin stretches over 201,346km2 areas. Study based on CCCM, GFDL R-30, and UKMO-89 models climate change scenarios (Deksiyos, 2000) indicates the basin to be highly sensitive to climate change. It was reported that runoff would decrease by 33.6% and 2.6% according to CCCM and GFDL R-30 models, respectively. According to UKMO projections, runoff changes would increase by 10%. According to Deksiyos, (2000), incremental climate change scenarios (i.e., temperature increase by 2 and 4°C, and ±20%, ±10, and no change in precipitation) would decrease runoff significantly in warmer and drier scenarios over the basin. It is also predicted that even a temperature increase by 2°C without precipitation change would result in a significant decrease in runoff. Precipitation increase would offset the effects of temperature increase (Kinfe, 1999 and Deksiyos, 2000). Rainfall variations in the central highlands of Ethiopia had considerably influenced the surface flow regimes of major rivers and originating from and flowing through the central highlands of Ethiopia, as well as the land use patterns in the area (Osman and Sauerborn, 2002b). The Awash River originates in the highlands of central Ethiopia, at an altitude of about 3000 m and ends in Lake Abe on the Ethio-Djibouti border. After flowing to the southeast for about 250 km, the river enters the Great Rift Valley at an altitude of 1500 m, and then follows the valley for the rest of its course to Lake Abe on the border with the Djibouti Republic, at an altitude of about 250 m. The total length of the river is about 1200 km and its catchment area is 113 700 km2. Awash drains the northerly part of the Rift Valley in Ethiopia from approximately 8.5°N to 12°N. The Koka Reservoir, about 75 km from Addis Ababa, has been in use since 1961 with a net available capacity of 1660 km2 and a concrete dam that is 42 m high. The maximum rate of outflow through its turbines is 360m3s–1, and the normal annual outflow is 120,000 m3. The Awash River Basin is relatively well developed for irrigation, and hydroelectric plant in Ethiopia. It drains several towns, including the capital, Addis Ababa, and industrial enterprises lie within the basin. However, water losses by evaporation are 31,500m3 year–1, and by percolation 38,000 m3 year–1 (FAO/SF 1964). The climate of Awash River basin varies from humid subtropical over central Ethiopia to arid over the Afar lowlands (Daniel 1977, Lemma 1996). Study results by Kiflemariam (1999) on the impact of climate change on the water resources of the Awash River Basin using GCM (both transient and CO2 doubling) and incremental scenarios projected decrease in runoff, ranging from –10 to –34%, with doubling of CO2 and transient scenarios of CO2 increase (GFD3, CCCM, GF01). Based on sensitivity analysis with incremental scenarios, he showed that a drier and warmer climate change scenario would reduce runoff. He concluded that areas where precipitation does not increase sufficiently to offset the temperature increase will have significant risk of drought. Findings by Kinfe (1999) indicate that the Awash River is highly vulnerable to climate change. He reported already a water stress has occurred due to population pressure even without climate change. Furthermore, he reported that 20% decrease in rainfall coupled with a 2°C increase in temperature would result in a 41% decrease in the annual runoff. Even a temperature increase of 2°C without precipitation change would result in a 9% decrease in annual runoff. On the other hand, an increase of precipitation by 10% would offset a 2 to 4°C increase in temperature and result in a surplus of runoff ranging from 4 to 12%. Kinfe (1999) concluded that the general warming simulated by all GCMs under CO2 doubling would result in a substantial decrease in annual runoff over the Awash River Basin. Given the economic role of the river, he concludes, climate risk will be too costly to be tolerated and urgent measures must be taken to reduce the impacts adopting feasible strategies.

Climate Variability and Change on Forest Resources Ethiopia is characterized into nineteen life zones. These are Nival, Alpine, Subalpine wet forest, Montane moist forest, Montane wet forest, Lower montane dry forest, Lower montane moist forest, Lower montane wet forest, Subtropical desert, Subtropical desert scrub, Subtropical thorn woodland,


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Subtropical dry forest, Subtropical moist forest, Subtropical wet forest, Tropical desert, Tropical desert scrub, Tropical thorn woodland, Tropical very dry forest, Tropical dry forest and Tropical moist forest (Annex Table 4.4.4.1). According to study results by Negash (2000) using Holdridge Life Zone Classification model simulation and GFDL climate change scenario, shift in forests from one type to another, from old to new habitat, reduction in forest area, fragmentation of forest life zones, disappearance of montane and lower montane wet forest and subtropical desert scrub under changed climate scenarios are expected. Similarly, appearance of tropical moist forest and expansion of tropical dry and very dry forests are projected. The expansion of tropical desert scrub and tropical dry and very dry forests and on the other hand highly shrinkage of lower montane moist forest in the northern parts of the country could be a result of predicted temperature increase by 2.4°C-3°C as well as rainfall decline by about 5%.

Climate Variability on Ecosystem and Biodiversity Ethiopia is endowed with a highly diverse fauna and flora with considerable endemism. The country has the fifth largest flora in tropical Africa. Biodiversity in Africa in general and in Ethiopia in particular is already under threat from a number of natural as well as human induced pressures. Climate change is now an additional stress factor (Desanker, 2002). Increasing frequency of droughts and floods associated with climate variability and change could have a negative impact on the ecosystems. Projection of climate change based on GFDL model showed ecosystem transformation in Ethiopia (NMSA, 2001) which will include transformation of the lower Montane Moist forest ecosystem into subtropical moist forest and sub tropical dry forest will be converted to tropical dry forest in the northwestern part of the country. In the southeastern part of the country, topical desert will dominate other ecosystems. Changing rainfall patterns could lead to soil erosion, siltation of rivers and deterioration of watersheds leading to ecosystem transformations. Climate change will trigger species migration and lead to habitat reduction. One study examining over 5,000 African plant species predicts that 81-97% of the plant species’ suitable habitats will decrease in size or shift due to climate change (McLean, 2005). Moreover, the same study noted that by 2085 between 25 and 42% of the species’ habitats are expected to be lost altogether. Ecosystems services that rely on sub-Saharan African plant diversity, including indigenous foods, as well as both locally used and potential exotic plant-based medicines are likely to be adversely impacted by climate change (WRI, 2005).

Climate Variability and Change on Human Health The health effects of a rapidly changing climate are likely to be overwhelmingly negative (IPCC, 2001). The outbreak of Rift Valley Fever, cholera and malaria are expected to increase with climate change (Mesfin and Tarekegn, 2000 and Elasha et al., 2006). Christopher (2004) showed highly suitable conditions for malaria transmission by the 2080s in previously malaria-free highland areas in Ethiopia. Malaria in Ethiopia is a major public health problem which significantly affects availability of agricultural labour ducing peak seasons. It occurs in most parts of the country and is unstable in its nature mainly due to topographical and climatological conditions. Because the transmission of malaria is dependent on temperature, rainfall, and humidity, we have selected it as indices to assess vulnerability of human health in relation to climate change (Mesfin and Tarekegn, 2000). Vulnerability assessment of the impacts of change in climate in recent past revealed six major epidemics have occurred in 1958, 1965, 1973, 1981-82, 1987-1988, and 1997-1998 (NMSA, 2001). In 1958, a notable epidemic occurred. Since 1958, major epidemics of malaria occurred at intervals of approximately 5-8 years, but recently there is a trend of more frequent small- or large-scale epidemics occurring in the same or different parts


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of the country. Currently, there are a number of epidemic precipitating factors in addition to natural environmental or climatological factors including chloroquine- resistance of falciparum malaria, high-scale population movement (due to resettlement and labor forces in agro-industrial development areas) and expansion of developmental activities such as irrigation schemes. Climatic, altitudinal and topographic diversities in Ethiopia create micro-and macroclimatic conditions that result in a discontinuous and widespread malaria distribution. The non-malaria afroalpine zone with an altitude above 2250m is the area where no indigenous transmission occurs. The malaria zone, which refers to the land below 2200m makes up 80-85% of the total landmass; roughly a minimum of 25 million people live in this region and are at risk of malaria infection. According to Weyessa et al (2002), malaria incidence of at Addis Ababa and surroundings is on the rises since 1996 with severe outbreak in the surroundings during 1998/99 period. The epidemics were one of the serious morbidity congesting health services in Addis Ababa City Administration. The epidemic at the peripheral part of the City, Akaki and its environs in 1998/99 is believed to be associated with the climate change during this period. With the anticipated increase in temperature and with little increase or slight decrease in rainfall over Ethiopia, the distribution of epidemic malaria was projected to widen.

Impacts of Climate Change on Farm Power Animal power is a major farm power resource in Ethiopia to perform tillage, and transportation. According to Abegaz (2005), animal power ranks first among the objectives of keeping animals in the mixed crop-livestock production systems in Northern Ethiopia. Tractors use is limited constrained by several factors including rugged topography, high altitudes that reduce the power outputs of engines, fragmented land holdings that make operation of tractors less economical due to high proportions of idle running with short fields, poor infrastructure that limit timely maintenance and supply of spare parts, shortage of capital for the purchase of tractors and associated machinery and limited hard currency to import fuel and spare parts. Moreover, long term tradition of use of draft animals for plowing coupled with favorable climates; for example, Absence of tsetse flies that also contributed to the high livestock population make animal power more attractive in Ethiopia. In southern part of the country, human power (hoe culture) is extensively used in agriculture. According to CSA (2001) there are over 10 million oxen, which represent approximately 50% of all oxen in sub-Saharan Africa, 4 million donkeys that is the second largest population in the world, 347 thousand mules, and 2 million camels in the country (Appendix 1). Animal power can be broadly classified as traction mainly for plowing and pack for transport. Oxen are widely used for plowing while equines are used for transport. The importance of these draft animals varies with the agro ecological settings. Over 70% of cattle and 80% of equines are found in the highlands of the country where over 90% of the farmers use oxen for food crop production (Asamenew et al 1993). Horses are used for plowing particularly secondary tillage in some highland areas such as West Gojam, Gonder, and North Shewa (Geza, 1999). In lowlands, camels are important for transportation of goods and people while donkeys are mostly used for transportation of water. According to Kassa et al (2006), camel is used for cross-border trade and medium distance transport while donkeys are used for short to medium distance travel and to fetch water from rivers and wells to the village inhabitants especially for elders and children. Crop and livestock production systems in the Ethiopian highland areas are highly integrated with increased yields of crops and crop residues combined with increased efficiency from draft power supporting the additional feed requirements of draft animals. Human labor is used for weeding, spraying, harvesting, and processing. Weeding is usually carried out by women and children. Human labor is also extensively used in commercial farming. Weeding, cotton picking, sugar cane harvesting, and sesame harvesting are carried out manually.

The vulnerability of farm power in Ethiopia to changes in climate stems from the fact that humans and animals are the main power sources; the performance of which depends very much on the climate unlike that of tractors. Heat stress due to increased temperatures results in less power outputs of both humans


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and animals. Rainfall variability has implications on feed and water availability. As a result of drought, biomass yield is reduced resulting in feed shortages especially during the dry season (Mulatu and Regassa, 1986). Primary tillage, which requires the highest power output of all agricultural operations, is carried out at the end of the dry season, during which feed shortage is a major problem. Therefore, any reduction in the annual biomass yields as a result of moisture stress causes severe reduction in power availability, which in turn has a negative effect on crop productivity or feed availability thus forming a vicious circle. According to MoARD (2006), the number of draft animals available at house hold level is declining over time. As a result, over 29% of the farmers in the highlands own no ox, while 34% have a single ox and 29% own a pair of ox with only 8% of the households having three oxen. The mule population is reportedly declined from 1.2 million to 0.35 million which has several implications on food production. Since oxen need to be paired traditionally to use them for work, more than 60% of the Ethiopian farmers in the highlands have to either rent or borrow one or more oxen for cultivation. As a result, timely land preparation is not possible leading to substantial yield reduction. Positive and linear correlations were reported between availability of draft animals and cereal production (Gryseels et al 1984, Omiti, 1995 and MoARD, 2006). In a similar study, farmers with two oxen were found to plant an average of 32% more land with cereals each year than farmers with no oxen, while farmers owning two oxen could plant 60% more land to cereals than farmers with less than two oxen (ILCA, 1987; MARD, 2006). Equines have been proved to harbor a wide range of internal parasites (Shiferaw et al., 2000 and Abdella, 1989) and they also suffer from protracted chronic under-nourishment (Gebreab, 1993). As a result, it is often observed that equines are in poor condition and are underweight which may contribute to a reduction in their working ability and effective working life. Sores due to improper/poor harnessing practice are endemic in the country and hence equines are subject to frequent use and severely suffer from the associated problems. Much of energy demand of the country comes from fuel wood (77%), dung (7.7%), crop residue (8.7%), Bagasse (0.06%), charcoal (1.15%), electricity (1%), liquid petroleum gas (0.05%), and oil products (4.8%). This implies that 95% of the energy supply of the country comes from biomass sources where as petroleum and hydro-electricity constitute the bulk of the modern energy supply source, with petroleum accounting for the lion's share (about 4%) and electricity supplying about 1%. In Ethiopia it is estimated that approximately 38 million metric tons of fuel wood was consumed in 1995/96 (NMSA, 2001). Traditional biomass fuels such as woody biomass, agricultural residue, charcoal, and dung are the dominant energy sources. The household sector accounts for about 93% of the biomass fuel consumption and there are serious shortages of fuel wood in both urban and rural areas. The average daily consumption of fuel wood by a household is estimated to be approximately 2 kg per capita but actual consumption varies considerably by region. In the northern part of the country, where natural forest is nonexistent, consumption is relatively low. On the other hand, daily consumption rates in the south-west forested areas could be as high as 5 kg per capita. With very little fossil fuel resources and limited foreign currency availability, Ethiopia will continue to depend heavily on biomass fuels. Because of de-vegetation, the supply of fuel wood has diminished and the use of dung as fuel is alarmingly increasing (Hadera, 2001). Moreover, growing numbers of people are forced to use a variety of crop residues for fuel. Much energy is lost in producing charcoal by the widely practiced earth-mound kiln technique. Approximately, 6% of the gross supply of wood is converted to charcoal, which is urban household’s dominant fuel source.

Climate Variability and Change on Livelihood Systems


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Farm households in the vulnerable areas to climate variability and change deal with a complex system of asset allocation, have different levels of access to capital assets such as natural, financial, physical, social and human, which affect the way they can respond to the impacts of the shocks from climate variability and climate change such as drought, floods and diseases on their livelihood system. According to Scoones (1996), 'risk and uncertainty dominate people's lives in dryland areas. Whether it is variability at a field level imposed by patterns of rainfall, the impacts of crop pests or the heterogeneity of soil types, or variability at a more macro level due to changes in market conditions, shifts in wage levels or adjustments in economic policy, hazards of various sorts overshadow farming livelihoods'. A livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets, and activities required for a means of living. A livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stresses and shocks and maintain or enhance its assets and capabilities whilst not undermining the natural resource base (Chambers and Conway cited in Carney, 1998). Livelihood is composed of a number of different assets on which people can draw to enable them to pursue a livelihood. According to Scoones (1998), natural capital include the natural resources that are available and useful to follow a livelihood, for example; land, water, wildlife, biodiversity and environmental resources), and social capital: The social resources (networks, membership of groups, relationships of trust, access to wider institutions of society) upon which people draw in pursuit of livelihoods. Human capital include the skills, knowledge, ability to labor and good health important to the ability to pursue different livelihood strategies, where as physical capital includes the basic infrastructure (transport, shelter, water, energy and communications) and the production equipment and means which enable people to pursue their livelihoods and that of financial capital incorporates the financial resources which are available to people (whether savings, supplies of credit or regular remittances or pensions and possibly livestock) and which provide them with different livelihood options (Scoones, 1998 cited in Carney, 1998). The five capitals are identified to categorize the different types of assets available to people. The livelihood system constitutes these inter-related assets that react to external influences and shocks on the system. Generally, a change in people's access to different assets and conversion of one asset to another (e.g. natural (crop production) to financial (income from sale of crops) determines the type of livelihood they pursue. Like the dynamic nature of climate, livelihoods are also not static; they change over time as they are influenced by different impacts and shocks. Hence, farming practices in the fragile drought prone areas are in a process of continual change and this is reflected in people's changing livelihood strategies. According to livelihood analysis by ICRA (1999), exposure to climatic shocks and changes in trends of livelihood system triggers changes in levels of assets and hence determine the vulnerability context of a livelihood. Trends include changing natural resources (rainfall patterns, deforestation, new or improved technologies, for example, short-maturing maize varieties), and livestock population (due to disease, lack of fodder, reduction in financial capital). Structures (organizations including government and private sectors) and processes (policies, laws) also define people's livelihood options (Carney, 1998) and hence the different livelihood strategies they pursue. Dryland farming households’ dwells in the fragile, complex, diverse and risk prone farming systems are extremely vulnerable to seasonal climate variability manifested by regular drought as a shock on their livelihood systems. In this areas farming households generally lack the assets needed to recover from shocks to their livelihood system. They perceive changes in climate have depleted their financial capital (livestock is considered a savings bank; trends illustrate livestock numbers in these areas are declining). Their natural capital is rapidly degrading, wells and rivers are drying out, and soil erosion is severe. The farming households are almost unable to recover in the short-term from shocks and impacts of climate variability such as drought, to their livelihood system. Their livelihoods are almost not sustainable as indicated by chronic food/feed insecurity after crop failure. Some households temporarily migrate as a short-term strategy, non-NR based alternative are sale of labor in state farms and NR-based arrangements such as charcoal burning and fuel wood production and


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engagement in food-for-work programs are the custom to ensure survival through some degree of food security. This calls for efforts to assist people to adapt to the changing climate and consequences of the shocks are not at all questionable.

The Changing Environment of Central Rift Valley According to ICRA (1999), soil erosion is dramatic in rate, partly due to deforestation and hillside cultivation. Run-off from the mountain leaves large gullies on fields. Charcoal burning and firewood collection are contributing to the rapid deforestation. In addition, changes in rainfall pattern have influenced livelihood adaptation/coping strategies. Crop failure and food shortages are caused by a change in the nature of rainfall. Rains have become much uncertain in onset and cessation, and erratic in distribution. Farmers perceive changed patterns of rainfall over the last 40 years, with the changes being caused by deforestation. Figure 3.5 illustrates farmers perceptions with 1978/1979 (farmers identified reference year as being particularly bad). Historical record confirms that 1978/79 was a drought year.

Figure 3.5. Farmer’s perceptions of Rainfall in Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia Source: ICRA, 1999

Trend analysis supported farmers’ perceptions of changes in patterns rainfall and amounts in the area. According to farmers, climate change is real. Their evidences are Increase in rainfall intensity (more heavy showers) resulting in more run-off and less infiltration; Increase in intra-seasonal variation of rainfall have increased over time; Increasing human and livestock populations resulting in movement into more marginal areas where

risks are higher; Decrease of effective rainfall due to human induced factors (land degradation and deforestation)

resulting in less infiltration and more run-off; Enhanced evapo-transpiration due to increase in temperature and wind speed over time; and Decrease in organic matter content of the top soil due to over-exploitation resulting in poor soil

moisture holding capacity.

ICRA (1999) studies with vulnerable communities in Ethiopia dryland areas indicate serious shock to the livelihood system due to changing climate. The changes have had a profound effect on people's livelihood strategies. Short-term desperate solutions include engagement in off-farm income generating activities to sustain the stocks of human capital (health) and are responses meant to secure food, however, this contribute to the long-term severe depletion of natural capital (trees). Dryland farmers must adapt their livelihood strategies in the face of shocks, such as drought, to the livelihood system. They have low levels of capital assets and this limit use of yield enhancing inputs. This vulnerable

General perception from farmers of Yaya on monthly

rainfall before and after 1978

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livelihood system is already unable to take risk. Consequently it is less likely that conventional research based recommendations will be of any help any more. In addition to farming, social networks are vital to livelihoods and strategies for coping with climatic uncertainties. Without these networks, which may provide sharing of labor, land, and oxen, some households find it impossible to carry out agricultural operations. Choice of livelihood strategies is therefore not only dependent on their choice of cropping system and management practices. Due to the vulnerability of their livelihoods to climate shocks, farmers’ management flexibility is an important asset for adaptation to changing environment. The implication is that impacts of climate variability and climate change on the livelihood system of people at risk in Ethiopia are a real challenge. Hence, the contribution research based adaptation strategies should focus a relatively broader field that will positively influence NR based livelihood strategies to ensure sustainable agricultural production as climate change unfolds.

Climate Variability and Change on Food Security Food security and famine and hunger deal with the most basic need of life-food. Food security indicates the availability of food, while famine and hunger refer to the effects of the non-availability of food. Famine and hunger, in other words, are the result of food insecurity. This section outlines the impacts of climate variability and climate change on food security in Ethiopia. Throughout its history, food security has been the prominent feature of Ethiopian people, and this issue still today remains a topic of considerable attention. Ensuring food security is equated to avoidance of famine and hunger. Famine and hunger result from the lack of food security. Famine is an absolute lack of food affecting a large population for a long time period. Famine is a disaster of food insecurity. Robert Klinterberg (1977) described famine as "an event which disrupts the functioning of a community to such an extent that it cannot subsist without outside assistance." According to Wolde-Mariam (1984), famine is a "general hunger affecting large numbers of people ... as a consequence of non-availability of food for a relatively longer time." Wolde-Mariam described it as a human tragedy: "a husband has eaten his wife, a mother has eaten her babies ... and free men have turned themselves into slaves. This is famine." Since famine does not strike unexpectedly, but builds up slowly and provides a lead-time before it occurs, its predictability makes it possible to prevent it. If a food shortage develops to the scale of a famine, it must therefore be the weakness of society in general and government in particular. In this sense, famine is a man-made disaster (Ayalew, 1988). Hunger is not famine. It is similar to undernourishment and is related to poverty. Throughout its history, Ethiopia has always undernourished and hungry people. People become weakened as a result of not having had adequate food for days. When hunger persists for a longer period, covering a large number of the population and resulting in mass migration and death, it then becomes famine. Drought is defined in general as a 50% shortfall in rainfall over three months (UNDP, 2004). The duration of drought plays the most important role in characterizing its hazard level, since it develops slowly and may last over a period of many years. Hydro-meteorological hazards, particularly drought, are the leading cause of disaster and human suffering in terms of frequency, area coverage and number of people affected (ECB, 2007; Figure 9). Famine has long been associated with fluctuations in rainfall (Board and Agrawala, 2000). The 1972-73 El Nińo was not extremely severe when compared with subsequent episodes. However, its consequences in Africa were the most calamitous of recent decades. This event deeply upset hydro-meteorological regimes of eastern and sub-Saharan Africa initiating the disastrous drought and subsequent famines of the Sahel (Kates, 1981). The precipitation of main rains were so scant or absent in some districts that the subsequent harvest season of the autumn of 1972 was seriously reduced, particularly in northern Wollo. As 1973 arrived and the ENSO episode became more severe, the failure of the main to materialize extended the drought further into the northern highlands. Agricultural dryness also expanded into the eastern and southern regions of the country to encompass 55% of all the 102 provinces into which the country was divided


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before the administrative restructuring in 1983. By mid-1974, the continued drought and failed summer harvest grew to comprise 60% of the provinces as the specter of famine covered most of the country with the exception of the western regions (Wolde-Mariam, 1986). The 1982-83 drought affected around 6.7 million people (Wolde-Georgis et al., 2001) and consequent famine claimed the lives of 500, 000 to 1,000,000 people (Dejene, 1990; Ezra, 2001). As a result of climate variability and climate change, the food security threat posed by climate change is great for Africa, where agricultural yields and per capita food production have been steadily declining, and where population growth will double the demand for food, water and forage in the next 30 years (Davidson et al, 2003 and Elasha et al., 2006). Continued droughts in 1991-92 and 1993-94 caused as much distress as during the 1980s. Moreover, in 1997-98, drought induced by another El Niño cost nearly estimates of $28 million damages (Comenetez and Caviedes, 2002). This drought was followed by catastrophic flooding in 1998 that compounded the shortage of food, which resulted in rural exodus and city in-migration (Wolde-Georgis et al., 2001). The failure of the 2000 short rains was more critical than the case in 1984 as it followed consecutive years of drought in 1998 and 1999, which had killed livestock and over-stretched the coping capacities of local communities (Board and Agrawal, 2000). Like that of farmers who suffers from periodic crop failures, pastoralists also suffer from loss of livestock when seasonal rainfall fails or when unusually heavy storms cause widespread flooding. Pastoralists, who move seasonally in search of water and grazing, often are trapped when drought inhibits rejuvenation of the denuded grasslands. During such times, a family’s emergency food supplies diminish rapidly, and hunger and starvation become commonplace until weather conditions improve and livestock herds are subsequently rejuvenated. The 1973 famine had threatened the lives of hundreds of thousands of Ethiopian pastoralists, who had to leave their home grounds and migrate into neighboring countries in search of food and relief from starvation. The effects of drought are often combined with other hazards such as migratory pest infestation (locust), prevalence of some crop diseases and pests (ECB, 2007), malaria outbreak (Mesfin and Tarekegn, 2000) and livestock diseases. Because of such compounded effects, the number of people in need of food in Ethiopia sharply increased from 1974 to 2003. Generally, recurrent drought depletes different economic assets of the majority of the Ethiopian population and creates weak resilience (high vulnerability) against disaster impacts year after year (Abate, 2003). Depletion of assets due to recurrent droughts increased the vulnerability of households and decreased their ability to cope up with climatic risks and other natural hazards. Famine and hunger are both rooted in food insecurity. Chronic food insecurity translates into a high degree of vulnerability to famine and hunger; ensuring food security presupposes elimination of that vulnerability. Vulnerable populations can reach the stage of famine with slight abnormalities in the food production-distribution-consumption process. Therefore, in conditions of chronic food insecurity there is always an impending famine. Food insecurity in Ethiopia derives directly from dependence on undiversified livelihoods based on low-input, low-output rainfed agriculture. Ethiopian farmers do not produce enough food even in good rainfall years to meet consumption requirements. Given the fragile natural resource base and climatic uncertainty, in spite of good current policy emphases on industrialization led agricultural intensification are very vulnerable to climate change, while institutional constraints such land tenure perpetuate this unviable livelihood system. Inappropriate food aid interventions by donors add another layer of dependence, at both household and national levels. Ethiopia has been structurally food deficit since at least 1980. The food gap rose from 0.75 million tons in 1979/80 to 5 million tons in 1993/94, falling to 2.6 million tons in 1995/96 (Befekadu and Berhanu 2000). Even in that year, 240,000 tons of food aid was delivered, suggesting that chronic food insecurity afflicts millions of Ethiopians in the absence of transitory production shocks.


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Asset-less rural Ethiopians cannot meet their food needs even under ideal weather conditions, they suffer seasonal hunger and malnutrition, and they are acutely vulnerable to famine in years of low or erratic rainfall. Less well understood than the immediate impact of drought on rural livelihoods is the impact of repeated droughts on long-term food insecurity. Two vicious cycles are at work: recovery from food crises is cut short by the next drought, and the threat of drought - which occurs frequently but is unpredictable in its timing and severity - inhibits investment in productivity-enhancing agricultural inputs, because the downside risk for marginal farmers is too high. Recurrent droughts add food production shocks to abnormally low yields; limited off-farm employment opportunities restrict diversification and migration options, leaving people trapped in increasingly unviable agriculture characterized by food insecurity. Government of Ethiopia has set up food security strategy, whose implementation has begun, is meant to break the complex problems to close the food gap and ensure food security. On the one hand, a structural transformation of agriculture is urgently needed - for instance, through the promotion of technological inputs, or land tenure reform, to rise yields. On the other hand, given the inherent vulnerability of agriculture, the role of agriculture in the economy must eventually be reduced by significantly increasing growth in other sectors (Befekadu and Berhanu 2000).

Climate Variability and Change on National Economy Ethiopia has highly variable climate both in space and time and experiences several drought incidences. Such unmitigated hydrological variability currently costs the Ethiopian economy over one-third of its growth potential (Sadoff, 2006). Currently, the extremely low level of hydraulic infrastructure and limited water resource management capacity of the country undermine attempts to manage rainfall variability. These conditions leave Ethiopia’s economic performance virtually hostage to its hydrology (Sadoff, 2006). The very structure of the Ethiopian economy, with its heavy reliance on rainfed subsistence agriculture, makes it particularly vulnerable to hydrological variability (Sadoff, 2006). According to a World Bank (2005) and Sadoff (2006), water variability reduced projected rates of economic growth by 38% per year and increased projected poverty by 25% over a twelve year period. The vast majority (80%) of Ethiopia’s population subsists on rainfed agriculture, thus their welfare and economic productivity are linked to the variable rains (Grey and Sadoff, 2005; Sadoff, 2006). Figure 3.6 depicts a very strong correlation between rainfall and overall GDP. According to Sadoff (2006), the impact of rainfall variability is felt not only on agricultural outputs but also on other sectors. Such effects of rainfall variability are severe mainly because they are unchecked either by good physical infrastructure or good management practices (Sadoff, 2006). Recent frequent floods disrupted the economy by destroying roads, electric power lines and installations, buildings, crop fields, animals and the working force. For example, the 2006 flood damage in Dire Dawa city was estimated at Ethiopian Birr 70 million (ECBP, 2007). A single day heavy frost in the highland areas of east Hararghe caused an estimated damage of Birr 48.1 million (AU, 2005).


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Figure 3.6. Rainfall variation around the mean and GDP growth in Ethiopia Source: World Bank 2005

Climate Change on Millennium Development Goals Climate change has the potential to undermine economic development, increasing poverty and delaying or preventing the realization of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (Elasha et al., 2006). According to Elasha et al. (2006), the lack of effective adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change can jeopardize the achievement of MDG goal 1 (eradicating extreme poverty and hunger), goal 6 (combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases) and goal 7 (ensuring environmental sustainability. This indicates a direct link between climate change and development, where the impacts of climate change could largely impede economic development.


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Chapter 4

Strategies for Managing Risks and Reducing Vulnerability

Adaptations Options to Climate Variability and Climate Change

ulnerability is defined by the IPCC (2001) as "the degree, to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. In this respect, vulnerability is seen as the function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate

variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity.” Because of high climatic variability, communities residing in marginal environments of Ethiopia have developed strategies to cope with drought. The high vulnerability of people in Africa to climate variability is attributed to a large extent to their low adaptive capacity which results from a deteriorating ecological base, widespread poverty, inequitable land distribution, a high dependence on the natural resource base and the ravages of HIV/AIDS (Hulme, 1996; IPCC, 1998; Magadza, 2003 and Ikeme, 2003). Improving adaptive capacity is important in order to reduce vulnerability to climate change (Elasha et al., 2006). Despite the low adaptive capacity of Africa in general and Ethiopia in particular, people have developed traditional adaptation strategies to face the great climate inter-annual variability and extreme events. They have been trying, testing, and adopting different types of coping strategies (Elasha et al., 2006). An unusually persistent drought may increase people’s vulnerability in the short term, but it may encourage adaptation in the medium to long term (Mortimore, 2001). This reinforces the observation that local people have perceived, interacted with, and made use of their environment with its meager natural resources and changing climatic conditions. This practical coping mechanism is particularly true for the drought prone areas in Ethiopia and in the African Sahel region, which is susceptible to frequent climatic hazards (Elasha et al., 2006). According to different sources (e.g., ECBP, 2007; Elasha et al., 2006; Admassie, 2007; Hellmuth et al., 2007), the most common climate variability and climate change adaptation strategies in Ethiopia are: Diversification of herds and incomes; Growing of drought and heat resistant and early maturing crop varieties; Use of small-scale irrigation, water harvesting and storage, and improved water exploitation methods; Labor migration; Response farming (season-customized farm management practices); Increased agro-forestry practices; Changes in farm location; Reduction in herd and farm sizes, and food storage; Crop and animal diversification; Controlled grazing; Selling of assets; Herd supplementation; Communal holding of grazing lands which facilitate free mobility in pastoral areas; Culling of animals; and Indigenous early warning and forecasting systems.

V


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Managing Risk and Reducing Vulnerability in Crop Production

Table 4.1 summarizes recommended research based technologies for drier farming areas of Ethiopia. Farmers in the drought-affected areas of Ethiopia are resource poor and in fact are more or less moderately risk averse. Their systems are characterized by periodic moisture deficit at any given period during the growing season. A range of crops differing in their maturities are currently grown by farmers adopting traditional field management strategies (Fujisaka et al., 1996, ICRA, 1999, ICRA, 1996). However, in recent years, these varieties frequently fail (Habtamu, 2004), failing often to provide the minimum food requirements for the family. Although, diverse and complex constraints are responsible for this, lack of flexible research recommendations for soil and water management under low and erratic rainfall condition is among the key factors. Some of the technologies to alleviate problems of soil moisture deficit include different cultural practice, soil, and water management options. The major research recommendations to address this problem in the past years are summarized in the following sections. The time and depth of sowing with respect to environmental variables such as soil moisture determine emergence, seedling establishment, growth, and development should be according to prevailing climatic and soil conditions. Due to high variability in season duration and water supplies, choices among alternative cultivar maturities with differences in seasonal water demand should be varied according to seasonality of rainfall behavior parameters (Habtamu et al 2007; Habtamu, 2004). Recommendations should be developed for various cropping scenarios through simulation modeling. Due to the high variability in the date of onset, planting decisions and cultivar choices and input levels should be differentiated for early and late season onset types adopting response farming approaches (Habtamu et al., 2007). Farmers in the drought-affected areas usually use high plant population for various reasons to ensure good stands. Optimum plant population should be determined according to seasonal rainfall and the soil moisture conservation practice employed. Farmers poorly adopt crop management technologies developed and recommended because they perceive them as rigid, which disregard seasonal climatic variability. Nevertheless, there are some major achievements in developing short maturity low yield targeted drought escape crop varieties, and soil and moisture conservation practices all valid to speed up recovery to normalcy under crises situations. Recommended early maturing varieties developed for drought-affected areas are focused to adapting crops to later portion of the season, which is perceived by researchers as more reliable. However, drought escape varieties though ensure harvest is inferior grain quality. There is a need to develop varieties for adapting to the long unreliable seasonal rainfall. Use of farmers adapted drought tolerant varieties in breeding should receive attention for adaptation to current variability and projected climate change Dryland areas are characterized by heavy and torrential rainfall that results in severe soil erosion. Erosion by wind is also notable. Soil moisture loss to high evaporative rates limits water availability and pose crop water deficit. Returns from yield increasing production inputs are limited. Proper tillage practices with respect to time, frequency and method could contribute to better soil and moisture conservation. Early plowing immediately after harvest followed by once plowing in June helps in recharging soil water during off-season. As in-situ rainwater harvesting using tie ridge is effective in controlling run-off and soil erosion. It enables considerable return on costly in puts such as fertilizers. In low rainfall seasons, crop response to fertilizer is much better than in seasons of high rainfall when extended waterlogging from use of tie-ridges caps crop growth, development and yield. Therefore, the use of tied-ridges should be determined for seasons varying in their rainfall potentials and soil types and


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climatic conditions to ensure better adaptation and encourage farmers to use yield enhancing production inputs.


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Table 4.1. Available technologies for crop production in the drylands of Ethiopia

Production package Varieties Maize Sorghum Tef Wheat Haricot bean

Improved varieties 90-110 day maize such as Katumani, ACV-3, ACV-6, Melkassa-, A-511, Local

Seredo, Dinkmash, 76 T1 # 23, Gambella 1107

Dz-cr-37, Dz-01-196 K 6295-4A' Dereselign, Enkoy, K 6290 bulk

Mexican -142, Roba, Ex-Rico 23

Seed rate (kg/ha) 25-23 8-10 25-30 125-150 Plant population 55000 plants/ha 90000 plants/ha Unknown Unknown Plant arrangement/spacing 75 X 25 cm or Row planting or broadcasting 75 X 15 cm or broadcasting Broadcasting Broadcasting Sowing time Late June-first week of July Late June-first week of July Weed management Early weeding; one hand weeding 25-30 DAE Early weeding; one hand

weeding 25-30 DAE 1-2 hand weeding 20-30DAE, 2,4-D + hand weeding

One early hand weeding (20-30DAE)

Fertilizer rate(kg/ha) 50-100 DAP + 50 UREA

50-100 DAP + 50 UREA

50-100 DAP + 50 UREA

50-100 DAP + 50 UREA

Tillage Tie-ridging, till after harvest of crops in December using mouldboard plough and use early season rains for tillage -Use tied ridges at planting (Kidane and Hailu, 199-)

Tie-ridging Fine seedbed (2-3cm) Tie-ridging

Crop rotation Maize after legumes(Haricot bean, faba bean, chick peas or field pea)

Sorghum after legumes (Haricot bean)

Tef after legumes After legumes (Haricot bean, faba bean, chick peas or field pea)

Mixed cropping With legumes (haricot bean) With legumes (haricot bean)

Unknown Unknown

Potential yield with improved technology

2.0-3.0tons/ha 2.0-2.5 tons/ha 1.5-2.0tons/ha 2.0-2.5tons/ha

Yield with traditional practice 1.0-1.5tons/ha 1.0-1.2tons/ha 0.5-.8 tons/ha 1.0-1.2tons/ha

Source: Compiled by Habtamu (2004) based on Abera and Beyene, 1995.

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Adaptation to Rainfall Variability and Cropping Risks In order to judge the significance of the recommendations based on non-participatory conventional white-peg agronomics, it will first be important to understand the problems farmers must contend with. Seasonal rainfall variability and its related problems, , form the greatest source of risk to crop production in the semiarid tropics and subtropics. Variability in amount of typically ranges from as little as one-third to as much as two times the long-term mean. The impact of seasonal variability however is a function not only of rainfall amount, but also other agriculturally relevant aspects of rainfall behavior such as the duration of the season, frequency of rains and their sequencing with respect to growth periods of the crop(s) to be planted, each of which poses its own risks. In the struggle for survival against pervasive drought, farmers have long been taking a different tack from that of agricultural researchers, based on accumulated indigenous knowledge. In response to the major rainfall related risks, and associated threats they pose, farmers have evolved a range of field level decisions and alternative actions aimed at minimizing their impacts. Paradoxically, dry land research agronomy has, by and large, actually taken a step backward to the more conservative concept of a fixed "best bet" cropping system for farmer use in all seasons in any given rainfall zone It has long been said that the efficiency with which land, capital, and labor are used in producing crops in semiarid climates is limited by the high probability that the yield opportunity provided by chance will not match the yield potential set by farmer’s selection of crops, plant population, and soil fertility amendment. In unexpected dry years, variable inputs are not fully utilized by the crop and often exacerbate water deficits. In unexpected years of good water supply, opportunities for high returns are foregone. Without the ability to predict the nature of the pending season, economic benefits from yield-improving technologies in risky climates will always be less than in more reliable ones. As each new season approaches in the dry land areas, a number of irreversible actions are demanded by the farmer, which shapes the cropping system for the entire season, whatever the rainfall pattern to follow. Summary of semi-arid farmers seasonal decision challenges are presented in Table 4.2 with possible suggestions on types of solutions (Stewart, 1991a). Dryland farmers’ seasonal actions relate to crop establishment operations, and influence effective water supply, crop water use efficiency (yield per unit of water), or some combination of these. Such operations include: Land and seedbed preparation, i.e. imparting slopes to plant rows and modifying infiltration characteristics of

the soil, thus influencing the balance between run-off and retention; Selection of crops to be planted, i.e., determining amount and sequencing of water requirements, capabilities

for soil water extraction during dry periods, and yield responses to water excesses or deficits; Selection of Cultivars, i.e., influencing the above factors and determining length of growing season from

germination to physiological maturity; Selection of Seed Rate and Spacing between Rows, i.e., influencing crop water requirements and patterns of

soil water extraction; Selecting Initial Fertilizer Types and Rates of Application, i.e., determining potential water use efficiency, with

attendant risks on both extremes of the range of rainfall amounts; and

Approximately 30-45 Days after Crop Germination, Final commitment on plant population, and fertilizer application, i.e., in compliance with crop water requirements use and / or potential use efficiency to observed

season rainfall.

Table 4.2. Sources and Nature of Risks Associated with Seasonal Rainfall Behavior and Appropriate Field Level Responses

Source of risk Nature of threat Field level decisions and actions Prolonged wet spells Water logging of crop root zone Land preparation and tillage: balance drainage

of excess water with needed retention Prolonged dry spells Early season, following onset Middle season End season, early cessation of rains

Crop water deficits, plus: Seedling death; need to replant Disproportionate crop yield loss if in critical growth stage Rainy period duration inadequate to mature selected crop

Increase onset soil water criterion and/or delay earliest planting date Select crop types/maturities; adjust ranges of planting dates to fit phonology of crops grown Select maturity classes of crops/cultivars commensurate with expected rainfall behavior

Deficit in seasonal rainfall amount Crop water deficit with resultant yield loss Select crop types with appropriate average daily water requirements; land preparation and tillage for water retention

Source: Stewart, 1991a

Applications of Agro-meteorological Information Development of flexible decision making packages should begin with proper understanding of climate resources, potentials, and risks and opportunities of any given location. Agro-meteorology is applied science. Drawing upon the accumulated knowledge of meteorology and agronomy, it enables man to describe the available atmospheric resources (the characteristics of climate and weather in different regions at different times) including their frequency or probability of occurrence as well as the atmospheric conditions required by crops and animals for optimal; sustainable growth, and their upper and lower limit. It also enables farmers to match these resources and requirements as realistically as possible. Agro-meteorology uses primarily climatic and recent weather information for agricultural planning. Mostly recent weather and forecast information are used for day-to-day operations.. In day-to-day agricultural operations, agro-meteorology aims to reduce risks, losses, costs and pollution in each successive agricultural operations and increase the efficiency of energy inputs, thus helping to keep agricultural production as close as possible to its qualitative and quantitative potential (Rijks, 1984). Although agro-meteorology may distinguish between climatic and weather information, a farmer who uses agro-meteorology makes many decisions by combining the two. A common feature of climate is its annual and within season variability. Farming practices in traditional agriculture which supplies humans and animals alike, had more or less adapted itself to this variability. It could draw upon the relatively extensively used fields at some distance from settlements or on newly opened forest land to buffer the effects of bad years, thereby avoiding the degradation of the normally cultivated fields. Climate variability persists although there is no concrete proof thus far that climatic variability or the climate itself has truly changed. One of the major problems in agriculture is that in many case, man has not yet found sustainable farming systems adapted to a new "balance" of population and climatic variability, particularly with regard to the water and land available to crops and pasture and the environment in which pests and diseases develop. Despite this population pressure, man still does not always exploit the available water and land sufficiently well. To reduce climate related risks agro-meteorology information should be applied in the following operations:

Land use planning ; Land/soil preparation; Sowing; Weeding;

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Thinning; Fertilizer management; Pest and disease control; and Control of migrating pests

Agro-climatic research in Ethiopia focused on rainfall characterization, wet and dry spell analysis, length of growing period for the purposes of climatic and agro-ecological zone classification, assessing of drought risk for crop production (DCRS, 2000). Attempts have been made to establish the growing period for few crops, and optimal planting calendar dates to match crops and varieties with the moisture availability period. Despite these attempts, the use of climatic information for agricultural decision-making at farm level remains very limited. There has been negligible research in making climatic data available to guide cropping decisions. Climatic analysis is not crop based, and often do not account farmers definitions and perceptions. Hence, farmers have continued using their traditional strategies in crop production developed over years based on trial and error (Fujisaka et al. 1996, ICRA 1999, Habtamu 2004, Habtamu et al., 2007). Thus, agricultural food/feed production in semi-arid dry land Ethiopia still today lags the 3.1% rate of population growth. The dry land areas, characterized by low and uncertain rainfall fraught with high risk, suffer frequent severe droughts, which have resulted in massive food shortages and chronic food insecurity (Fujisaka et al., 1996, ICRA 1999, Habtamu 2004, Habtamu et al., 2007). Despite the changing climate, dryland farming agronomic research has long been focused on development of single fixed "best bet" cropping systems, with rigid procedures for soil preparation, early maturity-drought susceptible varieties, blanket use of fertilizers, and spacing between rows and plants. But these ignore a complex of indigenous knowledge amassed over the years by farmers. More recently, participatory rural appraisal and farmer participatory research have revealed that resource poor farmers prefer flexible seasonal adaptation strategies for crop production during what they view to be a single long but unreliable seasonal rainfall stretching from March to October. While rejecting researchers notions of single fixed "best-bet" (e.g. a 90-day-low yielding maize and in the farmers' view, inferior grain quality), resource poor farmers, in their tradition of flexibility, have evolved a system of planting their favorite medium and longer maturity (up to 150 days) maize early in the season, and reworking the field and re-sowing with a 120-day and 90-day maize cultivars if stands are bad (Fujisaka et al., 1996; ICRA 1999; Habtamu 2004; and Habtamu et al., 2007).

Farmers’ Strategies In response to rainfall uncertainties, Ethiopian farmers have developed their ways of adapting their farming practices suited to different season types and soil and land types. They adjust frequency of tillage, planting density and the timing of various operations. They have changed crops and cultivars, and have developed different soil moisture conservation methods. These strategies have in fact been useful in coping with drought (ICRA, 1999; 1997; 1996, Fujisaka et al 1996, Habtamu et al., 2007, 2004). Table xxxlists some of traditional coping mechanisms in response to drought. In summary, traditional procedures adopted to cope with drought are outlined below As soon as soil moisture becomes sufficient, farmers start practicing a number of tillage to ensure moisture

infiltration and to encourage weeds to germinate. Three land preparations all aimed at moisture conservation and weed control are practiced. The fourth ploughing closes the furrow to reduce evaporation;

Farmers adjust the sowing time according to the cultivar, soil type and moisture availability. Long maturity crops are planted early if there is sufficient soil moisture;

If initial rains are intermittent and early sown maize and sorghum suffered drought, farmers perform shilshalo and under-planting beans at the same time. Katumani may be under-sown in late/medium maturing maize crops that have suffered from drought. If the maize is likely to fail, farmers re-plant with either tef or haricot bean;

Farmers plant early in the morning or late in the evening to avoid soil moisture loss. In May, during the hottest period of the year, farmers try to prevent livestock walking on the fields to avoid loss of conserved nish by evaporation (self mulch type of soil);

Some farmers divert run off into established (sown) fields whenever possible, especially at the flowering stage;

With June or early July rains, farmers now prefer to grow improved seeds of short maturing varieties of maize. If the rain delays much after June, and starts in July, farmers are unlikely to plant maize and instead concentrated on beans and tef;.

Planting early maturing crops if rains are too late and if earliest sown crops fail; Allocate crop and cultivars according to soil moisture holding capacity; Choose/change crops to sow (select drought tolerant crops); and Sow drought prone soils later with less water demanding crops

However, due to the ever changing climatic conditions, the effectiveness of farmers’ strategies are limited. Lack of access to seasonal climate information leaves farmers to struggle with the variability in their traditional hit-or-miss systems. Decision support tools to guide farmers to adapt the climatic risk are not available. Important operational agro-meteorological information that could guide crop/cultivar choices, type, rate and timing of fertilizer application, pesticides uses and planning of various other farming decisions are also not available to farmers. Hence, adoption of recommended technologies remains typically low.

Adaptation to Cope with Impacts of Climate Change

Response Farming In any newly approaching season, the major questions from the farmer's standpoint are how to handle the crops under uncertain rainfall. As each new season buds, farmers are concerned with: What to emphasize or de-emphasize? What should be seed rate and fertilizer application? What exactly would one need to know about the coming rainfall, when, in order to make rational decisions about these questions? But first, what should be the signal to plant at all, disregarding the details? Should it be a certain date which history indicates usually signifies the approach of the rainy season, or should one see the rain satisfactorily started before planting? If the latter, what is satisfactory? Perhaps it is sufficient rain to penetrate the soil to and beyond the seed depth, germinate the seed, and then assure the seedling its water needs are met until subsequent rainfall events are guaranteed, or nearly so. What amount of rainfall is required to accomplish this? Does soil, type matter? What is the present depth of seed placement? What do rainfall records show about the lengths of rainless periods commonly experienced after initial onset of the season? These are not rhetorical questions. They are real issues which must be considered if one seriously studies how a certain crop should have fared growth and yield wise, how it should have been managed in a given rainfall situation in the past. The same process is require if one wishes to identify and quantify the rainfall events which occurred just before or during the early days of season past, which were in fact indicators of the nature of the season to follow, had we known how to interpret them. Learning what these indicators are and how to interpret their meaning in time to guide crop production decisions is the goal of Rain behavior analysis. Using the indicators to forecast the season rainfall category, then using the forecast to guide farm management decisions is called Response Farming. Response Farming (RF) is a flexible system of farming in which key decisions affecting crop water utilization and crop yield are modified each season in response to pre-season and early season predictions of season rainfall amount, duration, intensity index and other parameters as appropriate. RF is the modernized form of a centuries old methodology for weather-guided flexibility in crop management - practiced by traditional farm families in the face of seasonal rainfall variability in tropical and sub-tropical regions. RF is a product of the computer age, merging ancient lore with recent advances in computer technology, plus an ever increasing availability of climate data and an ever expanding body of agronomic research findings; most importantly those which quantify impacts of alternative crop and soil management decisions on effective water use. Traditional weather based crop management, and RF, are based on the observation that seasonal rainfall parameters, for example, rainy period duration, amount, and other patterns of behavior, are related to the date

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of onset of the rains, and to sequences of rainfall events in the seedling stage of growth immediately following onset. In monsoonal and Mediterranean type rainfall regimes, the date of onset typically varies from year to year over a calendar period of two months or more. Early onset dates signal longer duration of the rainy period and significantly greater seasonal rainfall. The RF methodology was devised on the observation that seasonal rainfall parameters, e.g. rainy period duration, intensity, amount, and patterns of behavior, are related to the date of onset of the rains (as defined for safe establishment of crops to be planted), and to sequences of rainfall events in the seedling stage of growth immediately following onset. RF thus designates the date of onset as a useful predictor of “effective rainfall”, and essential characteristics of the seasonal rainfall in store. Fundamental to the derivation of a forecast in RF is the empirical relationship between the relative earliness of a rainy season and determinants of its potential for supporting crop production, i.e. the season length, the amount of rainfall received, and its sequencing with respect to growth stages. RF was initiated in Kenya in a project aimed at developing cropping systems to enhance and stabilize yields of basic food crops in the marginal rainfall zones of Kenya. In these areas, it was recognized that no fixed cropping system could take advantage of the high yield potential of good rainfall seasons (yield enhancement), and also reduce the crop failure rate in poor rainy seasons (yield stabilization). Accomplishment of both of these aims at a given location demands flexibility in management, which in turn implies a need for some agronomically meaningful seasonal rainfall prediction - timely enough to allow farmers to change or modify one or more key crop establishment decisions. The aim of RF is to match crops and management options to actual rainfall conditions in any given locality and season. In drier areas, RF offers opportunity for markedly improving food security as well as the economic status of low resource farm families. In poor rainfall seasons the aim is to achieve at least a subsistence crop, with little or no cash outlay. Most crop failures may be avoided, and recovery of food security hastened when failure occurs. This can be achieved by emphasizing short maturity cultivars of crops with lesser sensitivities to water deficits, sown in widened rows at reduced seed rates with rigorous control of weed competition and with little or no fertilizer added. In better rainfall seasons, the strategy is to produce for the market as well as for the family food supply. Longer maturity cultivars of more desired crops (often with greater sensitivities to water deficits) are recommended, sown in closer rows at higher seed rates and with fertilizers applied at rates calculated to enable yields more closely approaching climatic and genetic limits. Farmers, even those with very limited resources, are adept with RF practices RF simply changes this to a Plan A/ Plan B system, with Plan A is geared for the higher yield potential of early onset seasons. If onset does not occur in the early period, the modified Plan B is followed. Definitions of "early" and "late" onset, probabilities of rainfall in each of these subsets of past seasons, and details of Plans A and B are all worked out by researchers in close collaboration with farmers. Analytical procedures include the use of crop models that quantify both risk and expected returns from alternative decision packages, avoiding the need for expensive long-term field experimentation. Finally, on-farm trials are conducted for field verification of the efficacy of the newly indicated procedures. When both the research and farming communities are satisfied that the new procedures are substantially better than the old, all farmers in the locality are familiarized with the new recommendations. In each succeeding season farmers stand ready to pave the way for the desired Plan A if onset is early, or to switch to the modified Plan B when onset is late. RF feasibility was demonstrated in Kenya at ten sites in the Eastern Province, covering a wide area with major variations in rainfall, and verified in farmers' fields through four consecutive cropping seasons in a total of 32 trials. Average maize yields were essentially doubled from the farmers' own harvests of 1165 kg/ha to 2300 kg/ha in the RF plots, while average dried bean yields were increased more than 2.5 times from 350 to 900 kg/ha. When these results were extrapolated to the (then) 54 season rainfall record, expected long term average maize yields with normal management were estimated at 800 kg/ha, coupled with a failure

rate approaching 50% of seasons. RF reduced the failure rate to an estimated one season in nine (11%) with an average yield of 4610 kg/ha. Beans seldom totally fail, even with normal management, and were estimated to yield an average of 855 kg/ha. RF more than doubled this estimate to 1875 kg/ha. The World Hunger Alleviation through Response Farming (WHARF) (Stewart, 1988, 1995) methodology was validated for its potential benefits in improving traditional and conventional adaptation measure to current variability and projected climate change. Response farming methodology incorporates detailed season-by-season analysis of rainfall behavior parameters as defined for cropping purpose and enables development of forecast information upon which to base management decisions through matching crop types and practices to preseason forecasts of growing period rainfall. The model was applied to analyze historical rainfall in the 24-year period from 1977-2000, in conjunction with results of participatory rural appraisals around Melkassa Agricultural Research Center (MARC) and Adami Tulu Agricultural Research Center (ATARC), in which are located SE and S of Addis Ababa in Ethiopia respectively. The two sites were used to track three maize production scenarios described above, validating the model capacity in quantifying cropping season related rainfall probabilities and comparing potential yields and probabilities of success from each. Response Farming exploratory analytical results showed clearly that although researchers have greatly improved on the fixed 150-day maize system which bears a high risk of total or near failure, the flexible system combination adaptation strategy developed by the farmers is equal to the fixed 120-day system in stability, and far superior in yield and farmer satisfaction under extreme seasonal variability and changing climate. WHARF analysis favored farmers' perceptions of changing climate and proved their adaptation strategy to be on the right track. The findings strongly suggest approaches that combine farmers' knowledge gained in participatory interaction, and scientific Response Farming methodology may offer solutions for climate change induced agricultural development puzzles, which have plagued the area for decades. The methodologies very much promise ability to enhance farmer's native intelligence and long experience in coping with notoriously variable and uncertain climate. Field verification of the response farming approach under semi-arid areas of Ethiopia across 4 locations on 42 farmers’ fields during 2005-2007 cropping seasons made it clear that absolute failure on 4 fields adopting farmers hit-or-miss system of decision, whereas maize yields from response farming plots were more than doubled. On the other hand, maize yields where farmers were provided with detailed seasonal prospects to apply by their own gave better yields as compared to those farmers’ business-as-usual plots (Habtamu Unpublished data). These field studies on feasibility of the RF approach show that adaptation strategies developed based on response farming modeling (using power of modern computers and long-term weather records) is one of the keys towards improvements of traditional adaptation strategies to current climate variability and projected climate change. This will contribute by enabling farmers to make choices of the most promising cropping strategies. In addition, it will enable timely out/up-scaling of response farming led strategies to improve farmers’ seasonal hit-or-miss (win-or-lose games) cropping decision tactics. This will therefore contribute in making dry land farming ecologically sustainable and economically feasible as climate change unfolds. Based on the above account of validation of response farming models, we recommend that adaptation to current climate variability and agronomic planning and farm decision-making be based on dates of onset to be crucial to manage risks and reduce vulnerability of households in the Central Rift Valley drought prone areas of Ethiopia. Given that farmers in the area are already advanced in many of the useful application of response farming adaptation strategies, the approach holds promise first for instant adoption both in principle and practice, and secondly for scaling out in areas with similar agro-eco-systems To summarize, potential adaptation measures to cope with adverse impacts of climate change on crop production could be:

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Improving and changing management and techniques such as planting date, seeding rate, and fertilizer

application rate; Change in crop regions; Proper use of climate information for land use and early warning systems; Promoting irrigation agriculture where feasible; Enhancing erosion control; and Adopting suitable crop varieties and developing new ones.

Adaptation Strategies for Livestock Changing Livestock types - Diversification of livestock The change in vegetation composition due to climate change and variability has forced pastoralists to spread the risk by raising different but easily adaptable livestock types. The Afar pastoralists, who used to raise cattle, currently prefer to raise camels and small ruminants and tend to reduce the number of cattle. The Somali pastoralists too prefer camels followed by small ruminants and cattle. Among the Borena pastoralists, camel is becoming popular after cattle. However, among the South Omo and Nuer cattle are still priority animals raised by the pastoralists.

Conservation of dry season grazing reserves and use of crop by products One adaptation mechanism to cope with feed and water shortages is the use of dry season grazing reserves. During the rainy season when pasture and water is available, livestock are kept around villages or settlements. As pasture and water is depleted and the dry period advances, livestock are taken to dry season reserve areas. Transhumance as coping mechanism is based on traditional norms and resource management. In most instances, duration of stay in dry season areas ranges from 3-7 months depending on the onset of the rains and severity of the drought. However, transhumance to dry season areas is restricted because of rangeland resource shrinkage and degradation. As a result, some pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in Somali region have started fencing few grazing areas to conserve fodder for their own stock. According to Bruke (2003) agro-pastoral communities depend on crop residues to feed livestock in good rainy season. In bad seasons, they collect stalks of maize and sorghum, conserve, and feed their livestock

Minimizing watering frequency Livestock watering frequency primarily depends on the season, type of livestock and distance from watering points. Reduced frequency of watering is a common coping mechanism in areas where watering points are far from base village. Accordingly, cattle have access to water every 3 days, sheep, and goats every 5-7 days and camels every 10-12 days. Pastoralists who are residing close to perennial rivers and water points provide water for their animals every day (Biruk, 2003).

Sale of livestock The primary interest of pastoral family is maximization of herd for insurance and security purposes and not cash. In good years, pastoralists residing close to towns do sell livestock products such as milk and butter. In addition, male sheep and goats are sold for the purchase of cereals and household food supplies and to cover expenses for medical care, payment of debt, taxes, and social obligations. In addition, during post drought, male stocks are sold for the purchase of female breeding stock from the adjacent highlands. In pastoral area, sale of livestock is a major coping strategy in years of climatic crisis to respond to feed and water shortages as well as livestock health care. However, sale of young and productive cattle has serious limitations because productive animals are sold (Biruk, 2003).

Strengths and weaknesses of indigenous livestock production technologies Some of the coping strategies adopted by the pastoralists have brought a shift in production system that reduced availability of grazing lands. The emergence and spread of agro-pastoralism into pure pastoral rangelands of Ethiopia was recorded particularly over the last 100 years as people increasingly adapted to farming (Holt and Richard, 1989) and in response to food insecurity (Gufu, 1998). Expansion of agro-pastoralism could be partly associated with the decline in range resources as well as decrease in per capita livestock holding and productivity. Though, the area put under cultivation looks relatively small, the trend and impact is alarming. According to a study by ILCA (1984), there was little cultivation in Eastern Hararge until the 1940s. In the 1970s, about 10% of the area was converted to crop cultivation. In Borena zone,

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expansion of agro-pastoralism reached its peak between1993-1995 where most of the Borena lost their livestock. In Afar region, with the assistance from the former North East Rangeland Development Unit (NERDU) and the current crop extension package coordinated by the Regional Bureau of Agriculture, over 3,700 ha of land has been converted to crop agriculture using both rain fed and irrigation. Agro-pastoralism is also gradually expanding in the regions of Gambella and Benshangul Gumz (Biruk, 2003). Adoption of agro-pastoralism brought about the tradition of keeping large number of low-grade animals both to secure more milk and for household consumption and farm power needs. This however has intensified the pace of environmental degradation. With shrinking land, clan conflict over the rangeland resources mainly grazing and water has contributed to a decline and use of the resources. Conflict, not only limits access to common pool resource. Inter tribal (clan) conflict often results into loss of human lives, damage to property and resources. Conflict between the Afars and Isas on the Halidege plain of Zone 3 of Afar region has precluded the use of over 75,000 ha of good grazing area for both clans. Though the degree and magnitude vary, conflict occurs in the pastoral areas of Somali, Borena, South Omo, and Gambella. The resultant effects of conflict is loss of human and livestock lives and consequently, limiting access to the resources.

Exogenous livestock production technologies According to MoARD (2004), Ethiopia started pastoral programs in 1950s, by developing national policy of integrating the highland and lowland economies through trade and irrigation schemes. Until early 1970s, the program irrigated more than 120,000 hectares of land in Afar and Somali rangelands. In 1975, a project named as Third Livestock Project (TLDP) developed infrastructure - roads, markets, water, veterinary clinics, inter-regional trade in over 27% of the southern and eastern rangelands. From 1989 another project named as the Fourth Livestock Development Project (FLDP), funded by the World Bank, assisted the Southern Rangeland Development Unit (SORDU) to raise herd off-take. The project established service cooperatives, built roads, upgraded wells, trained herders in animal health, installed a range monitoring system, and transferred fattening ranches to the pastoral community. There have been efforts to introduce exotic breeds in times of droughts. Government has also established breeding centers as genetic resource conservation. Pastoral livestock development interventions mainly provision of veterinary services, roads, and market infrastructure have opened the pastoral areas for development. However, the introduction of large-scale irrigated agriculture on over 1.9 million ha of land and the protection of over 466,640 ha pastoral rangelands for national parks, sanctuaries and reserves displaced the pastoralists from their traditional dry season grazing areas ( Biruk, 2003). Since the last 50 years, the Afar pastoralists have lost close to 60,000 ha of dry season grazing area along the Awash River. The Kereyu pastoralists too lost about 22,000 ha for Metahara sugar estate. The closure of land for such non-pastoral systems without the consent and full participation of the pastoral communities has greatly affected the rangeland resources and the pastoralists’ traditional coping mechanisms.

Next steps The future of livestock production particularly in arid and semi arid areas continues to be under threat of climate variability and climate changes. The information gap in the past research and development intervention on impacts of climate variability and climate changes on livestock production and productivity need to be bridged. Drought and flood that lead to obvious death of animals; loss of reproductive and productive efficiency; deterioration in quality and productivity of grazing lands, and increased destitution of the pastoral community have occurred several times even at shorter intervals of less than five years. However, documented information on magnitude of displacement, loss of life and productivity of the animal is rare. The methodological data available in various stations have not been utilized to indicate the magnitude of climate variability and changes that have resulted in the catastrophic loss of animal. Geo-referenced early warning systems need to be developed for drought, flood, and disease occurrence in aiding traditional mobility patterns of the pastoralists.

Numerous technological options have been proposed to attain food security situation of the pastoral community. Among others intensification of irrigation schemes and sedentaryzation programs may provide alternatives to the pastoralists in making decisions. But areas far away from rivers still remain to be good wet season grazing grounds. Ways has to also be sought to integrate forage crops production with irrigated cropping systems. In semiarid areas where rainfed crop cultivation is practiced forage crops could also be harnessed in certain spatial and temporal arrangements. Introduction of crop varieties with options to use as fodder can also be considered as one-way. Adaptation options for lowlands/rangelands include the following: Strengthening the early warning systems and coping strategies; Introduce mixed farming system, where appropriate; De-stocking of livestock on a regular basis; Water resource development in appropriate sites; Promote lifestyle choices of pastoralists through access to education and local urban development; Rehabilitation of bush encroached areas; Conservation and utilization of hay from natural pastures; Promotion of herd diversification; - Promotion of grazing management schemes; Use of local legume forage including acacia fruits and leaves; Capacity building and institutional strengthening of the local community; and Integrated approach to pastoral development.

Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources

Technological, economic and policy adaptations The technological, economic and policy adaptations available will differ greatly depending on the hydro-climatic zone, the level of economic development and the relative sensitivity of the water resource system to potential climate change. The IPCC Technical Guidelines (IPCC 1994) list six generic types of behavioral adaptation strategy for coping with the negative impacts of climate:

Prevention of loss This involves anticipatory actions to reduce the susceptibility of an exposure unit to the impacts of climate.

Tolerating loss This means, when adverse impacts are accepted in the short-term because the exposure unit can absorb them without long-term damage.

Spreading or sharing loss This means, when actions distribute the burden of impact over a larger region or population beyond those directly affected by the climate event. Changing use or activity, involving a switch of activity or resource use from one that is no longer viable following a climatic perturbation to another that is, to preserve a community in a region.

Changing location Where preservation of activity is considered more important than its location and migration occurs to areas that are more suitable under the changed climate.

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Restoration This aims to restore a system to its original condition following damage or modification to climate. This is not strictly adaptation to climate, as the system remains susceptible to subsequent comparable climatic events.

Adaptation options for Lake Tana sub-basin In addition to the above adaptation options, attempts to control the environmental phenomenon itself to modify the threat were alternative strategy suggested for adaptation. The strategy includes use of flood control structures and cloud seeding to alleviate drought. The main way to modify long-term climate change is to slow its rate by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and eventually stabilizing the concentration of these gases in the atmosphere. Table 4.3 lists some ways the Lake Tana sub-basin might adapt to the negative effects of floods and drought.

Table 4.3. Adaptation options and their effectiveness for Lake Tana sub-basin

Adaptation option Option effectiveness for: Floods Drought

Construction of reservoirs for hydropower, High Medium Irrigation, water supply, flood control, and/or multipurpose uses. Construction of dykes Medium - Use of ground water - Medium Relocation of settlements from flood prone areas Medium - Afforestation Medium Medium Improvement of water management systems Medium Medium Establishment of flood forecasting and drought monitoring system High Medium

Adaptation Options for Lake Ziway The main objective of adaptation options is to reduce impacts of climate change. Hence, the adaptation options should focus on increasing water utilization efficiency, increasing water availability, and ensuring better management of the available water resources. Besides, watershed based integrated water resources management should be the central part of the whole adaptation option.

Adaptation Options for River Awash One possible adaptation options to the impacts on the basin should be to take into account integrating other factors such as anticipated developments in agriculture and industry and population growth in the basin, and the parallel impacts of climate in these sectors. Potential options for water resources of the Awash River based on adaptation assessment based on expert judgment include allocation of water supply through market based systems, control of pollution, conservation of water and use of river basin planning and coordination. The adaptation measures suggested above would also apply for the Abay.

Adaptation Strategies for Forest Resources

Forests may adapt to the changes in climate on their own, but rates of adaptation could be ‘much slower than the rate of change in climate. Tree species may die out before adapting to the changed climate. Therefore, to minimize the vulnerability of tree species from any climate change effect, anticipatory adaptation measures should be encouraged in contrast to reactive measures as the latter may probably lead to undesired results.

Considering the issues that the impact of climate change on the existing forest resources may be irreversible, i.e. death, species extinction, and loss of valuable ecosystem could occur. Also the costs of reactive adaptation measures could be expensive, thus, adaptation options suggested in the sector include (Negash, 2000):

Planting trees and establishing plantations; Adopting sustainable forest management practices; Environmental education and training; Maintain untouched forest lands and river banks as migration corridors; Promoting conservation! preservation; and Developing disaster resistant tree species.

Adaptation Strategies for Farm Power

Indigenous coping strategies for farm power Farmers have several strategies to deal with farm power requirements. Those farmers with one ox bring their animals to make a teaming arrangement while those without ox tend to borrow from their neighbors, friends, and relatives. When the oxen become exhausted, farmers use donkeys and horses for tillage. Traditional system of labor sharing known as debo is used to help households that face labor and oxen shortages due to several reasons including sudden loss of a family member ( responsible for such operations) or sudden loss of oxen. In extreme situations, part of the land is left uncultivated due to shortage of draft power. Some farmers lease out their plots on annual basis and engage in off-farm activities to generate additional income. To counter the effect of feed shortage, farmers reserve feed for lean period or sell their oxen after work. Moreover, special feeding arrangements can be applied. Thus, during the work period, draft oxen are grazed on better pasture which has been reserved especially for the work animals. Oxen also receive supplemental feeding in isolation from the other cattle. Associated with climate change, there is a gradual shift in importance of draft animal. Camel is increasingly becoming important animal in pastoral agro-pastoral areas because of its tolerance to the harsh climatic condition. Donkeys are also becoming important than ever in high and mid altitude areas.

Limitations of Indigenous Coping Strategies for Farm Power One of the limitations in the farm power sector is lack of diversified use of draft animals. There is an opportunity for farmers to keep fewer draft animals and utilize them in an efficient way for diversified purposes. Lack of proper management of draft animals is another limitation. The traditional livestock rearing practice is largely dependent on releasing animals to graze by roaming in search of pasture from available feed resources. As a result, most animals have developed survival mechanisms at the expense of strength for work performance (MARD, 2006). The harnessing of equines for transportation has many associated problems in terms of causing injuries and discomfort to animals. In most cases, farmers use undesirable materials, particularly for harnessing donkeys. While making padding for back loads, farmers are not keen to put a structure for protecting the backbone of the pack animal. As a result, equines that are frequently used for transportation suffer from injuries and wounds.

Recommended Adaptation Measures for Farm power Several options can be used to improve availability of farm power. These could be in the form of mitigating the effect of drought on animals and human beings such as shortage of drinking water and disease or it could be in the form of introduction of technologies to make better use of the available power or to look for alternative power sources.

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Water Development Water development activities both for surface and ground water can be used to mitigate the effects of drought. Drinking water for both livestock and human beings can be made available during the dry season through rainwater harvesting. Roof water harvesting can be used particularly to improve household water availability. Open ponds or closed storage structures can be used to make more water available for livestock drinking and for off season small scale irrigation depending on the amount of rainfall and area of catchment. Exploration of ground water using shallow wells is another option to improve water availability during the dry season. Some lowland areas in Ethiopia have potentials for ground water exploration through shallow wells as the water table is close to the surface. Simple equipment which can be either manually operated or animal driven can be used for pumping.

Improving Performances of Draft Animals In order to improve the performances of the available draft power, measures could be taken in the form of availing feed supplements such as urea, improving the harnessing system, and improving tillage implements and systems. Conservation and utilization of hay from natural pastures (hay making with local grasses) can be applied. Improving harnessing systems such as the use of proper padding can increase the draft power output of animals. Cross breeding for draft power can enable farmers to use fewer animals to develop the same power output, which has got implications on efficient use of feed.

Introducing Improved Implements Improved tillage implements can increase efficiency of oxen by either reducing the draft force requirement of tillage operations or by increasing the work rate. Different types of implements such as the animal drawn moldboard plough, which reduces the number of times the land has to be ploughed thereby reducing traction requirements can be used to make the available draft power more efficient. The sweep cultivator, which requires lower draft power and which operates wider than the traditional tillage implement, Maresha, can also be used to undertake secondary tillage operations thereby improving the work rate of draft animals. Other implements such as animal drawn row planters and tie-ridgers can also be used to improve crop productivity, which in turn improves feed availability. Introduction of forage choppers can be useful to improve efficiency of feed. Weeding implements make labor more efficient for timely operations while use of draft animals for weeding with appropriate implements can alleviate the problem of labor shortage during weeding. Wider use of mechanical threshers and shellers can reduce the need for oxen and other animals. This could be attractive to farmers who want to fatten their oxen after finishing tillage operations and sell them at higher prices thereby avoiding the need for keeping animals throughout the year just for the purpose of tillage. Farmers can then buy oxen again at the beginning of the rainy season, which will improve feed availability and household income. Animal drawn carts improve the capacity of animals for transportation of products, inputs, and people. In lowland areas with plain topography, the use of carts can successfully be introduced. In the Rift Valley of Ethiopia, donkey carts are being extensively used. Further improvement of the existing carts and introduction of animal drawn carts including oxen carts in other areas could improve power availability to rural people.

Conservation Tillage Conservation tillage generally aims at reducing the intensity of tillage. There are different forms of conservation tillage adapted to different regions of the world depending on the socio-economic and environmental conditions. Where socio-economic and environmental conditions (such as sufficient rainfall, well drained soils and mechanized farming) are present, no tillage systems in which plowing is replaced by the use of herbicides for weed control followed by direct planting with appropriate equipment can be applied. Zero tillage has been widely adopted in Southern American countries and in the US. Locally adapted conservation tillage systems have also been developed to suit the semi-arid areas of Ethiopia (Temesgen, 2007). Introduction of conservation tillage systems that suit local conditions can help reduce the need for draft power.

Use of Alternative Draft Animals Alternatives to the current draft animal use of a pair of oxen for tillage include single animal operations that also need introduction of single animal harnesses and associated implements. V-shaped yokes have been developed by the Agricultural Implements Research and Improvement Center (AIRIC). The V-shaped yokes can be used to improve power out puts of single animal harnessing. Implements that require lower draft power are also available to match the power output of the single animal. Following climate change, in particular, increased temperature and feed shortage, the use of alternative power sources to oxen becomes necessary. The tradition of using animal power, which started in the highlands, mainly employs oxen for tillage operations while equines are mostly used as pack animals. However, with the introduction of

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improved harnessing and implements, horses and mules can be used for tillage. Moreover, through careful selection of working periods in relation to reproductive cycles, cows can be used for traction. In low land areas, alternative power sources can be used including donkeys and camels. Field test results carried out at Melkassa Research Center have shown that a single camel can generate draft power equivalent to a pair of oxen (. Moreover, camels and donkeys can survive on low quality feed, which makes them appropriate for low land areas with deteriorating conditions of feed availability under changing climate. Harnesses and implements appropriate for use with camels and oxen have also been developed at AIRIC. Introduction of these implements and harnesses together with training of animals is recommended.

Adaptation Strategies for Household Fuel Supply According to NMSA (2001), without any intervention measures, total energy consumption would rise by a factor of 3.2 by 2030 as compared to the base year values of 1994. In the household sector, both demand management and supply side options can be considered. On the demand side, management options such as saving of energy through large scale introduction of improved cooking and baking stoves such as Mirt midija can be made. The coverage includes fuel wood and charcoal saving in both urban and rural areas. On the supply side, improved kilns with an efficiency of 34% against that of only 12-15% for traditional kilns can be introduced with the aim of reducing overall wood demand for charcoal making. Alternative use of biomass fuel for household energy supply includes the development of biogas reactors in the rural areas. Biogas technology makes multipurpose use of animal dung as the waste product can be used to enhance soil fertility. Other alternative renewable energy sources include wind and solar power. Wind power is abundant in low land areas. Windmills can be constructed at a community level to lift water from wells. Solar energy is also abundant in rural and low land areas, which can be tapped to supply energy for the household using appropriate solar cells and reflectors Adaptation Strategies for Livelihood Systems The foregoing section has presented the impact and trends from changing climate on the livelihoods of households. External shocks such as drought, and trends such as rainfall patterns and population growth, impact on the environment and also on the livelihood strategies of households and communities. The following section presents how households cope with drought, at field level-what farmers do in their fields and how they make decisions regarding their crop management practices according to the livelihood strategies they pursue. Households in the affected areas have a number of strategies to cope with drought. There are community structures and networks that help households to cope with drought. According to ICRA (1999) households have developed a number of livelihood strategies to cope with drought. Selling of livestock is one of the livelihood strategies of households. However, due to declining number of livestock, this may no longer be an option for many households. As a consequence, there is heavy reliance on other strategies such as charcoal production and firewood. During very bad years, poor fodder availability means livestock are in poor condition and consequently their value is greatly reduced. Other strategies include temporary migration with their livestock, temporary migration to state farms to sell their labor, sale of firewood and charcoal production, sand mining, begging on the streets and prostitution. As can be seen, all the strategies adopted are desperate, and not sustainable given the changing climate. Local social networks also play vital roles in coping with climatic shocks. In addition, traditional religious leader called Kallu are considered as social assets in the community for coping in times of crises. [How?] According to ICRA (1999), many households rely on the social networks through which various forms of sharing arrangements take place. Due to dramatically reduced livestock, most have an ox, which is a critical resource in crop production. Due to drought on the livelihood system, it is found that farmers access to resources of labor and oxen are not well balanced. Therefore, as a community coping mechanism, sharing

and trading arrangements of land, labor and oxen appear to have been strengthened. Though there appears to be a change in the type of arrangements, from social to economic, as more households move out of agriculturally based livelihood strategies, due to the non-sustainability of their livelihood systems. To adopt technological innovation the sharing arrangements may be decisive criteria as those with access to sharing arrangements may be in a position to take more risk. In order to develop adaptation strategies, such types of sharing and trading arrangements should be given due emphasis. Livelihood level drought coping strategies employed by households in Ethiopia include

Sell livestock; Temporary migration with their livestock: Temporary migration to state farms: Sale of firewood and charcoal burning; Sand mining; Begging on the streets; Prostitution; Joining military; Withdraw from schools and Refrain from participation in social activities; Divorce and marriage; and Theft and robbery

Adaptation Pre-requisites to Climate Variability and Change Since climate is changing and climate variability is expected to increase in frequency and intensity (IPCC, 2001), it will be expected that current coping strategies may not be considered as sufficient adaptation strategies in the future. Therefore, far more work is needed if adaptation itself has to be seen as an essentially dynamic, continuous, and non-linear process (ILRI, 2006). The following are suggested conditions that need to enable adaptation to changing climate.

Improved use of climate knowledge and technology The development of monitoring systems and response mechanisms to current weather, both at farm and government level, is an essential adaptation mechanism. Better forecasting and early warning systems have been identified as a prerequisite for adaptation, particularly to predict and prevent the effects of floods and droughts, and disease outbreaks in areas that are prone to epidemics as well as for indicating the planting dates to coincide with the beginning of the rainy season (Tarhule and Woo, 2002; Kovats et al., 2000). There are potentially wide ranging opportunities to benefit from improved forecasting skills, not only for extreme events but also for less extreme and more localized rainfall variability in East Africa (Conway et al., 2005). Applying ENSO based drought early warning to local conditions could reduce the impact of drought on society to a great extent. Farmers could be warned before the advent of drought so that they could be able to adjust their crop and animal management practices and their farm and household decisions. Such information helps the government reorganize its resources before the impact of drought is felt. However, this requires credible and reliable early warning and adequate information could flow between government agencies, extension workers, and farmers. It also requires the effectiveness of ENSO information dissemination to the local users and the confidence of the users in the information provided (Wolde-Georgis, 1997). The effective prediction ability of ENSO is global or regional at most, hence its forecasting precision decreases as the spatial focus is narrowed from global to regional and from regional to local levels (Wolde-Georgis, 1997). This is one of the reasons why the NMSA issues national and regional forecasts rather than specific local predictions. The regional forecasts provided by NMSA cost its credibility by local farmers in the different parts of the country as it may rain or become dry in their specific localities as opposed to the information provided by the NMSA for the wider region (Tesfaye, 2007). Forecasting needs to be more spatially specific for the information to be useful (Wolde-Georgis, 1997; and Farmer, 1993). The spatial and temporal variation of ENSO within a region has been documented by Farmer (1993). This is important to Ethiopia

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where there is climate variation within a short distance because of elevation differences (Gonfa, 1996). Therefore, for the ENSO information to be credible in Ethiopia, it has to take into consideration the unique conditions that arise due to diverse microclimates besides the general macroclimate (Wolde-Georgis, 1997). Ethiopia has developed a comprehensive Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) after the 1984 disaster, which integrated climate forecasts for Ethiopia with other information such as harvest assessments, vegetation indices, and field reports. Early warning information helped to avert the major famine crisis in the 1990s, 2000 and 2003 due to drought. The FEWS played a significant role in sensitizing the government and the famine early warning community. This also encouraged small participatory actions by affected populations, which improved their coping capacity (Board and Agrawal, 2000).

Education and awareness Education and awareness creation on climate change and variability among governments, institutions, and individuals should be viewed as a necessary step in promoting adaptation to climate change (ILRI, 2006). The issue of climate variability and climate change has to be incorporated in the country’s education system in general and in the curriculum of Higher Learning Institutions in particular.

Decision support systems Huq and Reid (2005) highlighted the importance of linking research to policy-making, with an emphasis on getting research messages to appropriate target groups; linking research to existing local knowledge of climate related hazards and involving local communities in adaptation decision-making. Washington et al. (2004) discuss the need for effective communication between the supply-side and demand-side communities of climate information in Africa and the need to work on means by which climate information can be incorporated into the livelihood strategies of potential users. Now days, decision support tools based on simulation analyses are available at the field and farm level to provide objective assessments of management alternatives for specific crops and locations. Combination of systems analysis, climate science, quantitative simulation tools, and discussion support and community interactions can be an extremely effective way to reduce vulnerability to climate risks and to realize societal benefits based on climate knowledge.

Communicating Climate Information There is a considerable gap between the producers of climate information and the ability of the decision makers and vulnerable stakeholders to interpret and react to such information. Deficiencies commonly remain in the awareness and understanding of climate change risks. Early warning information must be disseminated in a timely way to all stakeholders in formats they can understand or appreciate. Sewell and Smith (2004) emphasized the need for building credibility of rainfall forecasts and improving their dissemination and use, especially by people in the drought prone areas of Africa. Owing to its cultural, climatic, and natural resource diversities, farming in Ethiopia is complex. Therefore, it is difficult to make generalized crop and livestock management recommendations because of wide differences in a distance of a few miles (Wolde-Georgis, 1997, Wolde-Georgis, 1997; Osman and Sauerborn, 2002).

Policy Considerations and Sectoral Integration Drought is the main climate-related risk in Ethiopia, but there is no national-level drought strategy in the country. Moreover, Ethiopia’s development strategies do not explicitly factor in the issue of climate change, and efforts of public agencies are not well coordinated (Admassie, 2007). The issue of climate change should be mainstreamed in the development agenda of the country. Coping with climate variability requires that climate information be integrated into development planning and practice for both operational and strategic time frames (Meinke et al., 2003). Thus, the inclusion of climate change and vulnerability considerations in

sectoral and development planning and policies is an important way through which adaptation may be promoted.

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Chapter 5 Policies Related to Climate Change

There are different institutions, policies and strategies put in place to help reduce impact of disasters such

as drought and floods. However they have their own weaknesses. Most of the actions taken are reactive than being pro-active. DPPC early warning of drought or flood over is far from tackling the root cause of the problem. The forecasting system is not down scaled to the specific target area and is not in the utilizable form. NMA services in guiding agricultural development at farm level are limited. There is a need to develop human capacity in across the different institutions. Hence, there is a need to understand farmers seasonal climate information requirements, and avail them with useful information in time in order that they take strategic tactical decisions. Although Ethiopia has not yet developed specific climate change policies, programs and measures, there are a number of environmentally oriented, policies, strategies, and action plans already in place that can directly or indirectly contribute to the objectives of the Climate Convention. Support for the implementation of these policies, strategies, and action plans in the form of funding, technical assistance, training and technology transfer through the Convention mechanisms is extremely essential. In this chapter objective the relevant policies, strategies and action plans are briefly highlighted.

Conservation Strategies and Environmental Policy Widespread degradation of the natural resources and the environment are key problems for Ethiopia. To mitigate these problems, measures are under consideration and various policies and laws are in place. The Environmental Policy of Ethiopia (EPA, 1997a) indicates that environmental sustainability is recognized in policies and strategies as a key prerequisite. In line with this an institution in charge of environmental issues at the federal level, Environmental Protection Authority (EPA), is established. The EPA mainly assumes regulatory role and coordinates various activities within line ministries, agencies and nongovernmental institutions. To promote sustainable socio-economic development through sound management and rational use of natural resources and the environment, Conservation Strategy of Ethiopia (CSE) has been formulated (EPA, 1997b). The CSE encompasses 10 sectoral and 10 cross-sectoral environmental policies and seeks to integrate into a coherent framework plan, policies and investment related to environmental sustainability. The CSE stresses on community participation and is firmly placed on both bottom up and top down approaches. The Environmental Policy of Ethiopia also includes policy implementation issues like institutional coordination, legislative framework and monitoring, evaluation and policy review provisions. Sectoral environmental policies include, among others, sustainable agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources, energy resources, and environmental health. Climate change and atmospheric pollution forms the 9th priority of the sectoral Environmental Policy. The major overall objectives of this policy are to: Promote climate monitoring programs as the country is sensitive to changes in climate; Recognize that a firm and demonstrable commitment to the principle of containing climate change is essential

and to take appropriate measures for a moral position from which to deal with the rest of the world so as to bring about its containment by those countries which produce large quantities of GHGs; and

Foster use of hydro, geothermal, solar and wind energy so as to minimize emission of GHGs.

Population Policy The main objectives of the National Population Policy of Ethiopia (NPPE) are to:

Harmonize population growth with the country’s natural resources such as land, forest, water, etc; Reduce fertility rates through information, education and communication (IEC) strategies and

community-based distribution (CB D) programs of contraceptives; and Reduce mortality through the promotion of maternal and child health programs.

Within this framework, the NPPE, by 2015, hopes to see the reduction of total fertility rate from the current 7 to 4; increment of contraceptive prevalence rate from the current 4 to 44; and reduction of infant and child mortality rates.

Science and Technology Policy The Ethiopian Government issued the National Science and Technology (S & T) policy in December l3. The objectives of the policy inter alia include building national capability to generate, select, import, develop, disseminate, and apply appropriate technologies for realization of the country’s socio-economic development objectives and to rationally conserve and utilize its natural and manpower resources. Although the policy does not address climate change issues explicitly, the policy directives and strategies have duly addressed issues related to rational and efficient utilization of the natural resources and protection and conservation of the environment, both of which are closely related to climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. Then major strategies devised and the priority areas identified in the National S & T policy include:

Strengthen technologies that would help to follow up changes in the environment and to forecast, prevent and minimize the effects of natural disasters;

Support techniques that would help the search and use of alternative and renewable sources of energy; and

Formulation and implementation of S & T plans, programs and projects to accelerate the country’s socio-economic development; self-sufficiency in food production and satisfying the need for other basic necessities with due attention to environmental protection;

Application of S & T for awareness and control of environmental conditions and for the conservation and rational utilization of the natural resources of the country;

Develop the capacity and the mechanism to search, choose, negotiate, procure, adapt and exchange technologies that are appropriate and environmentally sound to the Ethiopian socio-economic conditions (this capacity would have an immense importance in acquiring technologies for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures);

Facilitate Research and Development (R & D) programs that would help to discover, popularize and develop fast growing, drought resistant and multipurpose tree species so as to rehabilitate and develop degraded environments;

Encourage and support strategies for efficient and economical use of energy in all sectors.

All these S & T policy aspects relevant to climate change have been further elaborated in the sectoral S & T policies which are envisaged to be implemented through the various institutions of the socio-economic sectors.

Energy Policy Ethiopia’s energy consumption is predominantly based on biomass energy sources. An overwhelming proportion (94%) of the country energy demand is met by traditional energy sources such as fuel wood, charcoal, dung-cakes and agricultural residues. The balance is met by commercial energy sources such as electricity and petroleum. The most important issue in the energy sector is the supply of household fuels.

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To improve the energy supply and efficiency of energy utilization the government of Ethiopia has formulated a national energy policy. The general objectives of the energy policy are to: ensure a reliable supply of energy at the right time and at affordable prices, particularly to support the

country’s agricultural and industrial development strategies; stream line and remove bottlenecks encounter in the development and utilization of energy resources;

Set general guidelines and strategies for the development and supply of energy resources; Give priority to the development of indigenous energy resources with a goal towards attaining self sufficiency;

increase energy utilization efficiency and reduce energy waste; and ensure that the development and utilization of energy is benign to the environment.

To achieve the above policy objectives the government had issued a national energy sector policy in 1994. The policy document stipulates that alternative energy sources and technologies shall be developed to meet increasing demand and encouraged and supports adoption of renewable energy technologies. It also encourages and support rational and use of modern fuels and, introduction of energy conservation and energy saving measures in all sectors. The national energy policy also clearly states that development and use of energy resources shall give due consideration to the protection of the environment.

Agricultural Policy The main objectives of the agricultural policy of Ethiopia are to: increase the production of food crops both in quality and quantity in order to attain food self

sufficiency; Improve the livelihood of the rural community through sustainable development of the agricultural

sector; promote the production of sufficient agricultural products, which can be used as raw material for the

agro-industries and to expand the production of industry led agricultural production; and ensure sustainable agriculture through promotion of agricultural practice, which realizes the

conservation of natural resources base.

Water Policy Ethiopia is often referred as “the Water tower of East Africa” because of its many rivers and water systems that drain neighboring arid countries. Estimates show that the surface water potential is about 111 billion m3, which represents a significant per capita. Major problem in developing this enormous resource is limited capacity and uneven distribution of the resource itself. As result of this, the country did not use its optimal irrigation potential and other uses that can be derived from the resource. Even not a significant portion of the potential is utilized for power generation. Therefore, the water policy aims at equitable, sustainable, and rational development of the water resources potential. In this policy, issues such as drought mitigation are addressed.

Forestry Action Plan The contribution of the forestry sector to the national GDP is very small in Ethiopia (about 6.3%). The rate of deforestation is at an alarming stage in Ethiopia. To enhance the economic contribution of the forestry sector and to mitigate deforestation, “Ethiopian Forestry Action Plan (EFAP) has been formulated. It is to be noted that forests serve as carbon sinks and hence enhancement of forestry is a measure that contributes towards the mitigation of GHG emissions. The main objectives of EFAP are:

increasing sustainable tree and forest products; increasing agricultural production through reduced land degradation; and conserving forest ecosystems, genetic and wildlife resources.

To achieve the above objectives, a series of complementary development programs that are classified as primary and supportive have been elaborated in the EFAP. The primary programs are: the tree and forest production program; the forest resource management program; the forest development program; and the wood fuel energy development program, all of which are directly linked to actions to mitigate

climate change.

Disaster Prevention and Preparedness and Early Warning Policy The Disaster Prevention and Preparedness and Early Warning Policy aims at reducing impacts of disasters through programs which generate employment, environmental rehabilitation and other drought-lessening activities. The main objectives of the Policy are to ensure that relief efforts reinforce capabilities of affected areas and people; and promote self-reliance and contribute to sustainable economic growth and development. The policy emphasize that public participation is central in planning, programming, implementing and evaluating relief programs and related measures. Health Policy More than 80% of the common diseases are infectious and communicable, which is mainly due to the poor standard of housing, the lack of potable water and inappropriate disposal of waste. The Ministry of Health considers its responsibility for strengthening the preventive health service among issues requiring top priorities. Thus, the long term health service strategy is to as much as possible concentrate on prevention of common infectious and communicable diseases. Such goals will be achieved mainly through promotion of environmental hygiene that includes safe disposal of waste and minimizing environmental pollution.

Solid Waste Management Plan of Addis Ababa City Council The City Council of Addis Ababa considers its responsibility for solid waste management among issues requiring top priorities and gives due attention to up-grade solid waste management and reinforce the legal aspects as regards to beautification and environmental protection in the city.

Approaches to disaster/risk management in national policy - Famine Early Warning Systems (FEWS) In response to different crises such as drought, past the government has established RRC to facilitate support for the affected people and later put policy that launched establishment of DPPC, then later renamed DPPC shifting strategy from relief services only to reduce vulnerability in the longer term besides relief provision. The government is also providing early warning system to predict risks to happen particularly with help of forecast information from NMSA. In this regards the 1996, summer floods and 2002 drought were predicted by the NMA, following which the DPPC distributed an early warning to the target users and also prepared beforehand coordinated action can be cited as good example. To reduce risks, currently the government is encouraging a shift from a rainfed production system to irrigation in potential areas. In this regard there are massive irrigation facility developments underway in the

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country. This is the right way, we believe, to adapt to the water stress and drought conditions at country level. Many small water tanks were constructed in all over Ethiopia to supplement crop production under moisture stress conditions though their efficiency is under question due to various inappropriate implementation problems.

National level mitigation strategies National level mitigation strategies includes establishment of Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC) to facilitate support for the affected people, formal rehabilitation schemes have been undertaken from places very risky to climate variability. Establishment of early warning systems (DPPC), for instances in 1988 and 1989, the Ethiopian authorities and donors used the seasonal predictive information to recommend appropriate measures regarding the lands to be cultivated, land areas to be apportioned among crops suitable to the season, fertilizers to be used, as well as conservation of food and water. Following the receipt of the 1992 predictive information, the government has institutionalized the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Committee in the Prime Minister’s Office. The famine condition of the 1994 was mitigated due to the appropriate use of the 1993 prediction information provided by NMA. In 1996, the summer floods were predicted by the NMA, following which the DPPC distributed an early warning to the target users. Due to the forecast information of the 2002 drought information provided from NMA, the food sector began a multi-agency contingency planning process in which the first coordinated food need contingency planning started under the leadership of the DPPC. Climate forecast (NMSA) Villagization (village establishment)- to restructure rural life, organize cooperative agricultural

production and effective accessibility to various services Adopted conservation strategies to protect forest, launch afforestation programs, construction of

terraces and soil bunds to reduce soil erosion Introduction of land reform Established national irrigation schemes for farmers. Promotion of In-situ rainwater harvesting technologies/ Constructing reservoirs for collection of excess

precipitation Adoption of suitable varieties or crops for an area ( e.g. early maturing, drought resistant crops)

Environmental policies, strategies, and action plans are in place that contributes measures related to climate change (NMSA, 2001).

Chapter 6

Summary and Conclusions

t is evident from the foregoing review that climate is highly variable in Ethiopia. It is also true that climate change will further aggravate the variability by increasing the intensity, frequency, and severity of unusual climatic events. Drought, which is highly linked to ENSO episode, is the most important climatic event in

Ethiopia with devastating consequences. Floods and extreme temperatures are also becoming important in affecting the livelihood of several communities in the country. Ethiopian economy, which is dominated by agriculture, is highly dependent on climate. Efforts made to partly decouple the economy from climate variability are not yet satisfactory because of poor infrastructural development, weak water management practices, and poor integration of activities across sectors. Disasters caused by climate variability are posing huge challenges on the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals in Ethiopia Therefore, water resource management measures and supporting natural resource management policies should be thoroughly and meticulously designed and strictly implemented to tackle the challenges of climate change and variability in Ethiopia. The impacts of climatic variations are multifarious and affect the environmental, economic, and social well being of the societies concerned. Further studies on the impacts and response strategies associated with inter-annual and inter-seasonal rainfall variability which is often poorly understood can provide insight into the regions vulnerability and adaptive capacity in relation to current climate variability and also to future climate change. Poor harvest and crop failure due to unreliable rainfall is becoming a challenge to feed the ever-increasing population in Ethiopia. The highly climatic variability and change has become the main reason for the recurrent series of droughts and floods recorded particularly in the recent past decades. Agricultural contribution to total GDP of the country is directly related to climatic variability implying its direct impact on the country's economic performance. There is evidence that food production trend in the country is very much correlated to the rainfall pattern as the result reduced yield and crop failure is frequent due to bad season. The impact of the current climate variability on crop production have been clearly seen on its effects on crop planting times, growing season length, shift in crop type or cultivars and productivity. In tackling these problems farmers have developed by trial and error responsive strategies to cope with such calamities. Some of these practices can be useful and can be fine-tuned if we seriously consider their indigenous knowledge. Research recommendations are not tailored to address seasonal variability, and there is no decision support tools and also seasonal climatic information which farmers could make use in decision making. The research recommendations fail to account use of climate forecast to enable strategic and tactical decision-making. Strong network and partnership between different concerned institutions to bring impact based on climate information should be in place. Simulation models should be introduced to capture more effectively the effects of seasonal rainfall variability and to help quantify climatic risk associated with available technologies.

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Climate fluctuations are general characteristics of the arid and semiarid areas where changes in climatic condition are inevitable with increased emission of green house gasses and associated global warming. The long term rainfall record of the different met stations found in the dry land areas of the country already showed a declining trend with rise in temperature, evapo-transpiration, and wind speeds. The frequency of occurrence of drought has become short with occasional flood. The resultant effect became deterioration in the livelihood of the pastoral and agropastoral communities. The prime effect of climate change and variability is genetic erosion of indigenous breeds with declining reproduction and productivity of the animals. In some pastoral areas genetic loss of 45% to 73% has been reported. The change in climate and the associated variability also influenced the spatial and temporal availability of feed. Scarcity of water and distance to be covered in search of water has increased with declining precipitation. The pastoralists and the agro-pastoralists being there for centuries have developed their own traditional coping strategies. Among others mobility, herd diversification, feed conservation, conflict resolution, herd reduction etc. have tended to sustain the system. However, the increased encroachment of non pastoral systems and the steady change in climate undermined the value of traditional coping strategies. External institutional and organizational supports by and large neglected the impact of climate change and variability and were not sustainable and fruitful. As observed in the above reviews, there is great variability and also changes in climatic condition of the country. The changes have already resulted in large amount of loss in livestock productivity and the environment. The impact is severe in the arid semiarid pastoral and agropastoral areas that cover over 61% of the total geographic area of the country. Feed and food security, protection of the natural resource and improvement in the livelihood of the pastoral and agropastoral community can only be attained if we able to manage the risks reduce vulnerability and enhance productivity of the livestock under this changing and variable climate. Decisions, recommendations, mitigation strategies, and development interventions need to base analysed of the past, present and prediction of the future climate of each locality.

Research on impacts of climate change on plant diseases has been very limited. Most attempts dealt with the effects of a single weather or meteorological variable on the host, pathogen, or the interaction of the two under green house and laboratory conditions. The most likely consequences are shifts in the geographical distribution of host and pathogens and altered crop losses, caused in part by changes in the efficacy of disease control strategies. Recent developments in experimental and modeling techniques offer considerable promise for developing an improved capability for climate change impact assessment and mitigation. Compared with major technological, environmental, and socioeconomic changes affecting agricultural production and productivity during the next century, climate change may be less important; but it will however, add another layer of complexity and uncertainty onto a system that is already exceedingly difficult to manage. Detailed research agenda need to be devised on climate change related issues that could lead to improved understanding and effective management of plant diseases in the area of current and future climate extremes.

Although Ethiopia's current emission of greenhouse gases is negligible, it is likely that the country will be affected negatively by global warming and climate change. Therefore conducting research on vulnerability and adaptation assessments to climate change is highly important for the country's long term development planning to ensure better preparedness and adaptation of the various economic sectors. In Ethiopia, climate variability, and frequencies of extreme events have increased over time. These greatly menaces the various agricultural sectors and natural resource base upon which poorest Ethiopian citizens draw their livelihoods. Crop production is dwindling, lagging very much behind population explosion, and increasing food insecurity at household and national level and grinding poverty remains rampant.

Water availability has dramatically reduced in rivers, streams, lakes, and reservoirs. Climate change in conjunction with human activities triggered by climate related disasters have killed Lake Haramaya, and Adele. The predicted likely death of Lake Tana, Lake Ziway, and River Awash water resources and the bio-diversity they host for many years are too costly and painful to tolerate. There is great fear and challenge of meeting the demands of escalating population water needs for food production irrigation, domestic, municipal, and industrial, and energy uses. Feed and water availability for livestock has greatly reduced, and livestock number has declined. This has already claimed lives of millions of financial and capital assets and threatens the livelihoods of great majority of marginalized pastoralists. Ethiopia’s GDP exhibits tremendous fluctuation with climate and its economy suffers greatly. Farm power and household fuel supply is jeopardized by changed climate, and this has led to desperate actions that culminated in deforestation, which has accelerated the pace of degradation of fertility and tilth. Sustainability of production and productivity driven by climatic resources in agrarian Ethiopia and future generation is quite under risk. Due to climate change, human and livestock diseases as well as crop diseases and pests have shifted in geographic spread, and vector borne and water borne diseases are causing serious losses. Ecosystem is shifting in a pace difficult to cope with. Bio-diversity losses are quite phenomenal. Farmers (crop and livestock) in Northern, Central and Eastern part of Ethiopia have long recognized these changes. They have set out strategies to cope with variability taking different tacks. Their systems based on trial-and-error over long years of struggle for survival have in fact made significant contribution in food production for the nation. The question is whether their adaptation strategies ranging from field level to livelihood levels will be adequate as climate change unfolds. In general, scientific evidences show climate has changed in Ethiopia. Projections show matters will be worse.

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Appendices Appendix 1. Summary of the farming systems, crop and livestock species, potentials, constraints, area coverage and location of the

dryland agro-ecology

Agro-ecology Farming system, crop/livestock species, potentials, constraints, area coverage and location Arid Farming Systems: Pastoral and agro-pastoralism, livestock species include sheep, goats, camel,

donkeys, and major crops: cotton, sesame, millet, tobacco, and sorghum. Major constraints: water stress, low soil fertility, over grazing and desertification, salinity, wind erosion, termite, lack of infrastructure, marketing. Potential: Livestock production, irrigated agriculture, wildlife and tourism, salt mining forestry and incense production. Area coverage and location: is about 33,848,000 ha (31.4%) and is located over large areas of Afar, Somalia, parts of east Shewa, and southern most parts of Borena.

Dry Semi-arid Farming system: Livestock/crop mixed type farming. Livestock species include sheep, goats, camel, donkeys, and major crops: include short cycle drought resistant crops including cotton, sesame, millet, tef, sorghum, horticulture crops, tobacco, sorghum haricot bean, and maize with supplemental irrigation. Constraints: open overgrazing, low input agriculture, land degradation, intense and erratic rainfall, water stress, low soil fertility, deforestation, salinity, wind erosion. Potential: livestock production, rainfed crop production, Afforestation, mechanized and irrigated particularly in the valley bottoms and rift valley area coverage and location: is about 4,240,000 ha, 3.57% and is located over the northern half of western Tigray, lake Koka in eastern Shewa, south Omo and pocket areas above Moyale in Borena area, both sides of rift valley lakes

Sub-moist/Most Semi-arid

Farming systems: Crop/livestock mixed type farming, Livestock species include same as above, Crops: highly diversified and major grown in the area include sorghum, tef, maize, barley, wheat, millet, haricot beans, chickpea, faba bean, field pea, safflower, sunflower and several horticultural crops. Constraints: water stress low soil fertility, open overgrazing, low input agriculture, land degradation, deforestation. Potential:, relatively higher potential for rainfed crop production, livestock production, Afforestation, incense production, Area coverage and location: (13,1400 ha, 11.66%) and located in most parts highlands of North Shewa, south and north Wello, Wag Hemera, north and south Gonder in the Amhara region, some parts of eastern, western, eastern and central Tigray region, rift valley areas around south and west extending up to Debre-Zeit, east and western Hararghie, east Shewa lowlands of Arsi, pocket areas around north Shewa, around Sheno area, mount Farit and Yoseph.

Dry SubHumid Farming systems: Crop/livestock mixed type farming in the Shewa Robit area and livestock/crop, agro-pastoralism in the Mega-Moyale area. The prevalent livestock and crop species in the moist zone are more or less the same as in the sub-moist zone. Constraints: Water stress, erosion, flooding, and malaria, limited soil fertility, pest infestation and deforestation. Potential: rainfed and irrigated agriculture, livestock and afforestation wildlife reserve and tourism particularly in the Mega-Moyale area. Area coverage and location: (13, 1400 ha, 11.66%) and this includes the north Shewa zone (Shewa Robit vicinity) M1-1, and the Mega-Moyale area in the Oromia region.

Source: (EIAR Research strategy, 1999)

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Appendix 2. Pastoralists’ perception on climate change and resource degradation

Perception indicators Perception indicators A. Eco-physical related indicators D. Livestock related indicators Permanent rivers diminish in water flow or dry up 1) Camels become leading arid animals Underground water discharge reduces significantly 2) Production of small ruminants increases Shallow water holes dry up and water tables get deeper 3) Cattle production declines Water tastes more salty and unfit for tap water 4) Animals spend more time in shade Soil becomes compacted and crusted 5) Animal productivity and growth decline Soil wind erosion is highly prevalent with dust devils 6) Stunted animals become a common problem Sand sheets and dunes appear with frequent sand storms 7) High calf mortality and weaning takes longer High run-off and flooding occur after rains 8) Longer interval between calving/kidding 9) Reduced supply of cattle at livestock market 10) Higher supply of camel milk than cow milk B. Climate related indicators Drought increases in frequency to every three years E. Animal disease indicators Drought lasts more than one year if once occurred 1) Contagious animal diseases are common Temperature increases above normal 2) Disease outbreaks increase sporadically Soil temperature is high and burning bare feet 3) Ticks and tick-borne diseases increase More thirst is felt and dehydration increases 4) Higher internal parasite problems More shading and less grazing/browsing of animals 5) Skin diseases become a common problem Incidence of predators increase with time 6) Respiratory diseases are often chronic C. Vegetation related indicators F. Insect and reptile related indicators Rainfall indicator plants do not flower 1) Termite problems increase Thorny shrubs and forbs increase 2) Mice and rats increase in population Dwarf bushes and trees overtake vigorous woody plants 3) Snake population and problems increase Growth of woody plants is stunted 4) Locusts can occur sporadically Woody plants tend to have more thorns and small leaves 5) Beetles and cattle biting flies increase Edible tuberous root plants are more abundant Fruit bearing plants die or reduce in population G. Social indicators Encroachment of non-palatable bush species increases 1) Population pressure on land increases Poisonous plants are more abundant 2) Poverty increases Palatable grasses and woody plants diminish/disappear 3) More dependence on food aid Feed sources grow scarce and become poor in quality 4) More migration of households takes place Encroachment of dwarf spiny Opuntia spp increases 5) Rich households face problems Encroachment of noxious weeds, which flourish after rains 6) Medium households grow poor/fragile

Source: Amah (2006)

Appendix 3. Changes in livestock holding over a 60 year period (1944-2004) among the Somali pastoral households

Wealth ranks over time Cattle Sheep Goats Camels Donkey Total (%)

30 year period before 1974 drought

Wealthy households 400 200 250 50 20 920 56.6 Medium households 200 100 150 20 10 480 29.5 Below medium households 80 50 80 10 5 225 13.9

Mean ( SD). 227162 11776 16085 2721 128 541352 -

Total TLU - - - - - 809 - DM per year in tons - - - - - 32.11 - 30 year period after 1974 drought

- - - - - - -

Wealthy households 100 350 500 120 10 1070 63.3 Medium households 50 150 300 60 5 565 33,6 Poor households 3 10 22 1 2 38 2.2 Very poor households 0 5 12 0 1 18 1.1

Mean (SD) 3847 129162 209236 4557 4.54 423500 -

Total TLU - - - - - 483.4 - DM per year in tons - - - - - 11.03 - Changes over 60 years - - - - - - - Decrease /Increase -527 +165 +354 +101 -17 +66 - Percent change +/- -77.5 +47.1 +73.7 +126.2 -48.6 +4.0 - Total feed reduction - - - - - 21.08 65.65 Summary - - - - - - -

Holding in TLU (SD) - - - - - 646230 -

Feed Requirement (SD) - - - - - 2215 -

Source: Amah (2006)

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Appendix 4. Pastoralists’ perception of constraints, their description and overall impact

Major constraints Description of the problem Overall impact of the problem Drought Became more recurrent High livestock mortality Lower prices for livestock Higher prices for grains and flours More dependency on food aid Increased poverty and destitution Migration and social destabilization Traditional coping mechanisms weakened Water shortages Becoming more scarce Increasing livestock mortality Increasing livestock emaciation Increasing migration and conflict Diminishing hopes on livelihood Total reduction in milk production Very poor quality of hides and skins Feed shortages Decline in quantity and quality Increasing livestock mortality Reducing animal productivity Increasing migration for feed Increasing conflict between clans Limiting livestock diversity Animal diseases No veterinary services Cause more mortalities and risk Lack of veterinary drug supply Total failure in producing marketable animals No early warning systems Ban on livestock export by Arabs No boarder quarantine system Total loss of hard currency earnings More cross border disease transmission Lower confidence in government Market for livestock Lack of appropriate markets More supply to neighboring countries Lack of market infrastructures Difficulty to access markets Low/no taxation to government No attachment to national economy Lack of information systems Cheaper price for livestock Unplanned livestock sales at loss Loss of producer benefits Increased cross border livestock trading Population growth Degradation of rangelands Over stocking and over grazing Increased desertification Deforestation for income generation Encroachment of woody plants Reduction of palatable grass species Shrinkage of grazing lands Increased poverty Deforestation for income generation Shrinkage of browsing vegetation Loss of biodiversity and important plants Increased conflict from animal theft Marginalization Lack of adequate development

interventions in pastoral concerned constraints

No/too little infrastructure and public services such as vaccination or drugs

No/too little development intervention No/too little rangeland rehabilitation/ No/too little water and feed development Lack of agricultural extension services Little/no health and education services Unsustainable security and more conflict Low confidence in the national system

Appendix 5. Wild life parks and sanctuaries found in the rangelands of the country

Region Area (ha) I Afar 1.1 Awash National Park 7560 1.2 Yangudirassa national Park 47310 1.3 Alaidege Wildlife Reserve 18320 1.4 West Awash Wildlife Reserve 17810 1.5 Gewane Wildlife Reserve 24390 1.6 Mille Serdo wildlife Reserve 87660 1.7 Gewane Controlled Hunting Area 59320 1.8 West Awash Controlled Hunting Area 91360 Sub-total 353,730 II Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Region 2.1 Omo National park 40680 2.2 Mago National park 21620 Sub-total 62,300 II Gambella 3.1 Gambella National Park 50610 Sub-total 50610 Total 466,640 ha

Source: EWCO, 1993; Biruk, 2003

Appendix 6. Draft Animal Population by Regional State

Regional states Cattle Draft oxen Donkeys Horses Mules Camel Afar 1,828,720 49,192 113,941 330,141 Amhara 10,431,301 3,061,586 1,452,979 292,915 103,015 19,902 Benishangul 309,593 67,543 30,949 530 1,149 15 Dire Dawa 54,155 5,940 - Gambella 126,197 1,160 264 338 Harari 34,608 5,911 Oromia 18,035,687 4,141,139 1,625,201 886,463 155,183 132,430 SNNP 8,616,269 1,912,812 318,441 289,323 49 71,599 1,300 Somali 2,455,000 70,023 615,000 49 427 2,259,000 Tigrav 2,668,076 791,618 403,518 5,846 16,316 37,212 Total 44,559,606 10,106,924 4,560,293 1,475,464 347,689 2,780,000

Source: ESA (2001)

Appendix 7. Ethiopian River Basins

Basin Countries Sharing

Drainage area (km2)

Annual flow (Billion m3)

Flow Contribution (%)

Abay Sudan, Egypt 210,846 52.62 42.64 Awash - 112,696 4.6 3.73 Baro Akobo Sudan, Egypt 74,102 23.55 19.08 Genale Dawa Somalia, Kenya 171,042 5.88 4.76 Tekeze Sudan, Egypt 90,001 8.13 6.59 Wabishebelle Somalia 202,697 3.16 2.56 Omo-Gibe Kenya 78,213 17.96 14.55 Mereb Sudan, Eritrea 5,700 0.15 0.12 Rift Valley - 52,739 5.63 4.56 Danakil - 62,882 0.86 0.70 Ogaden - 72,121 - 0 Aysha - 2,223 0.86 0.70 Total 1,135,262 123.4 100

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Appendix 8. Major characteristics of lakes and reservoirs

Name Elevation (m)

Drainage area (km2 )

Surface area (km2)

Maximum depth (m)

Tana 1788 5319 3000 14 Ziway 1636 - 485 9 Langano 1582 14600 225 46 Abyata 1577 - 200 13 Shala 1570 - 315 266 Hawassa 1680 1300 92 22 Abaya 1285 14487 1070 13 Chamo 1230 18573 350 13 Chew-Bahir 500 - 308 - Haik 1960 86 35 23 Ashenge 2440 129 20 25 Koka 1590 11250 236 13 Fincha 2219 1391 345 7 Beseka 1900 420 30 7 Turkana 375 - - - Abe 243 - 320 - Gamari 339 - 63 - Afambo 339 - 26 -

Appendix 9. The potential Holdridge Life Zone Distribution of Ethiopia

Holdridge life zones Current climate Climate change (GFDL) Area (ha) % Area (ha) %

Nival (Afroalpine) 1,890,755 1.64 945.377 0.82 Alpine (Afroalpine) 960,924 0.84 660,228 0.57 Subalpine (Subalpine Zone) 1,161,111 1.01 1,320,460 1.15 Montane moist (Moist evergreen forest) 3,793,630 3.30 2,971,032 2.58 Montane wet (Moist evergreen forest) 360,341 0.31 ------- ---- Lower montane dry (moist evergreen montane forest) 6,085,819 5.29 3,237,176 2.87 Lower montane moist (Dry evergreen montane forest and grassland) 10,359,911 9.01 1,980,688 1.72 Lower montane wet (Moist evergreen montane forest) 850,814 0.74 ----- ---- Subtropical desert (desert and semidesert scrubland) 1,801,627 1.57 360,362 0.31 Subtropical desert scrub (desert and semidesert scrubland) 2,742,618 2.38 ------ ---- Subtropical thorn woodland (Combretum Terminalia woodland savanna) 10,289,845 8.95 5,591,948 4.87 Subtropical dry forest (Combretum Terminalia woodland and savanna) 28,026,807 24.37 23,838,291 20.73 Subtropical moist forest (Moist evergreen montane forest) 13,873,266 12.06 18,816,543 16.36 Subtropical wet forest (Moist evergreen montane forest) 1,631,562 1.41 660,228 0.57 Tropical desert (Desert semidesert scrubland) 151,303 0.13 151,303 0.13 Tropical desert scrub (Desert semidesert scrubland) 7,206,897 6.27 9,073,156 7.89 Tropical thorn woodland (Desert semidesert scrubland) 10,490,032 9.12 14,945,200 13.00 Tropical very dry forest (Combretum Terminalia woodland and savanna) 9,729,306 8.46 16,786,316 14.60 Tropical dry forest (Combretum Terminalia woodland and savanna) 3,593,432 3.12 12,754,192 11.09 Tropical moist forest ------ ----- 907,500 0.79 Total 115,000,000 100 115,000,000 100 Source: Negash, 2000 Note: The names in the bracket were given based on the simplified vegetation map of Ethiopia developed by Environmental Protection Authority in collaboration with the Ministry of Economic Development and Cooperation

Appendix 10. Causes and Indicators of disasters and the use of climate Information as a factor to manage risks and reduce vulnerability

Disaster Causes Indicators River/flash Flooding

Heavy and high intensity rainfall, Sudden release of water from the dam, Sedimentation of river channel, Steep slopes and poor Land use

Heavy rainfall; Develop runoff and rising water levels frequently resulting in destruction of hydraulic –structures, and interruption many types of infrastructure (communication and water supply).

Drought Below normal rainfall, deficiencies in surface and sub surface water supply, low soil moisture.

Below normal rainfall for wide-range periods; water shortage, loss of vegetation, crop failure; starvation, migration

Water pollution Poor water and treatment system, population pressure around water resources, lack of proper land use and management, poor water and sewerage treatment, release of industrial/agricultural waste matter, floods, and drought.

Highly reduces water quality, Causes severe water-borne diseases, loss wild animals and vegetation

Land slides Extended heavy rainfall; poor land use and management practices, pressure of population settlement on sloping ground, poor construction along the slope

Heavy rainfall, contribute heavy sedimentation in the rivers, destruction of different infrastructures along the slope.

Dam breaks Heavy and high intensity rainfall; population pressure leading settlements in the dam area, weak management and land use in the upstream of dam area, poor dam design and maintenance

Heavy rainfall, deteriorating dam system and causes flooding

Soil erosion Heavy rain fall; poor land use and management,

Heavy rainfall, loss of topsoil, loss of vegetation and reduction of productivity.

Waterborne Diseases

Extended heavy rainfall; poor water and sanitation system, weak land use and management, poor drainage system

Heavy rainfall, poor sanitation, and drainage leading to stagnant waters and make ponds.

Forest Fires

Extended below normal rainfall and extremely hot temperature, deficiencies in surface and sub surface water supply, low soil moisture

Below normal rainfall for wide-range Periods, loss of wild animals, loss of vegetation, environmental pollution, starvation and migration of animals

impacts of climate variability and change in agricultural

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