impacts of potential climate change on rain fed agriculture in jenin district , palestine

Baha Hamrasheh, Maher Abu-Madi*, Nidal Mahmoud, and Rashed Al-Sa’edBaha Hamrasheh, Maher Abu-Madi , Nidal Mahmoud, and Rashed Al-Sa’ed

Institute of Environmental and Water Studies, Birzeit University, P.O.

Box 14, Birzeit, West Bank, Palestine. Tel/Fax: +970-22982120; E-mail:

[email protected]

Background (1/2)

• Global concern over climate change is growing.

• Average surface temperature of earth is about 15 °C.

• This average has risen by about 0.6 °C over the last century.

• Scientists predict further warming of 1.4-5.8 °C by year 2100.

• According to climate models for the region, there would be an

increase in winter temperature combined with changes in

rainfall amount and distribution and thus would affect rainfall amount and distribution and thus would affect

agricultural production.

• Temperature is projected to increase from 0.8-2.1 oC in all

seasons of the Middle East.

• It is predicted that temperature increases by 2-6 °C and

precipitation decreases by up to 16% in the Mediterranean

basin.

• Global warming is projected to have significant impacts on

conditions affecting agriculture, including temperature and

precipitation.

• Palestine has a semi arid to arid climate and has one of the

lowest per capita share of water resources in the world.

• About 6% of the total cultivated land area of the West Bank is

under irrigation and the 91.6% of the total cultivated land is

Background (2/2)

under irrigation and the 91.6% of the total cultivated land is

rainfed.

• Jenin district that is one of the largest agricultural areas in the

West Bank and contributing with about 16.2% of the

Palestinian agricultural production. Mainly rainfed

agriculture.

• The aim of this study is to assess the impact of potential

climate change on rainfed agriculture in Jenin district.

• The specific objective is to study the impacts of different

future scenarios of climate change on crop yield and irrigation

water requirement in the study area.

Objectives (1/1)

• Jenin district has an area of about 583 km2 and populated by

about 260,000 inhabitants, living in about 48,000 households,

and distributed in 76 towns and villages.

• Jenin district is divided into four rainfall regions:

(a) eastern with average rainfall of about 200-300 mm/year,

(b) northern and the north-western with average rainfall of

about 300-400 mm/year,

Approach and Methodology (1/3)

about 300-400 mm/year,

(c) south-eastern with average rainfall of about 350-500

mm/year, and

(d) western and south-western with average rainfall of about

600-700 mm.

• The maximum average of temperature in the district is about

27.4 oC, while the average lowest temperature is about 13.4 oC.

• The study is based on the raw data collected from the records

of the Meteorological Department, the Ministry of

Agriculture, and the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics,

covering a ten-year period (1998-2008).

• The analysis employs CROPWAT to estimate the change in

yield in response to different scenarios of increasing

temperatures and decreasing precipitation.


temperatures and decreasing precipitation.

• Excel and SPSS are used for analysis of data.

• Three scenarios are used in the study representing increased

temperature by 1, 2, and 3 oC and decreased in rainfall by

10%, 20%, and 30%.

• The rainfall data was analyzed in order to find possible shifts

and changes in rainfall distribution and amount.

• The selected crops for the analysis were chosen according to

the area planted and the economical returns. The selected

crops are:

– seven field crops were chosen (chick-peas, wheat, clover,

barely, lentil, sesame, onion),

– five fruits (olive, almond, plums, grape, aloe), and

– four vegetables (tomato, okra, squash, snake-cucumber).


– four vegetables (tomato, okra, squash, snake-cucumber).

1. Impact of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation

on yield reduction

Results (1/7)

Area, yield and production of main rainfed crops in Jenin district (٢٠٠٦/٢٠٠٥).

Production

(Metric ton)

Yield

(kg/Dunum)

Area

(Dunum)

Crops

١١,٤١١٢٨٠٤٠,٧٥٥Wheat

١,٥٩٥١٣٠١٢,٢٧١Chick-peas

١١,٨٢٥٥٥٠٢١,٥٠٠Clover

٢,٤٥٦٢٤٠١٠,٢٣٥Barely

١٤٥٦٠٢,٤١٨Lentil ١٤٥٦٠٢,٤١٨Lentil

٢١٥٧٠٣,٠٧٠Sesame

١٥,٨٨٩١٧٠٠٦,٨٦٧Dry onion

Fruit trees

٣٣,٥٣٦١٩٥١٧٥,٨٠٣Olive

٣٠٦١٢٠٨,٦٤٧Hard/soft almond

٣٦٥٣٠٠١,٣٨٢Plums

١,٥٢٢١,٠٠٠١,٥٢٢Grape

١,٧٠١١,٠٠٠١,٧٠١Aloe

Open cultivated vegetables

٢٦,٥٢٦١,٧٠٠١,١١٩Tomato

٢,٤٥٤٧٠٠٣,٥٠٥Okra

٨,١٢٣١,٥٠٠٢,٤٧٧Squash

١,٢٠٤٧٠٠١,٧٢٠Snake cucumber


on yield reduction

Results (2/7)

Crops Equation at 30%

Rainfall Reduction

Vulnerability

Rank

Sesame y = 0.7x + 83 1 (Most)

Tomato y = 0.5x + 81.2 2

Chick-peas y = 0.83x + 76.8 3

Snake-cucumber y = 0.64x + 75.25 4

Aloe y = 0.4x + 60 5Aloe y = 0.4x + 60 5

Okra y = 0.36x + 58.95 6

Olive y = 0.8x + 54.4 7

Squash y = 1.06x + 51.45 8

Grape y = 0.66x + 44.55 9

Almond y = 0.8x + 39.6 10

Wheat y = 0.75x + 36.4 11

Plums y = 1.11x + 33.3 12

Onion y = 0.9x + 22.3 13

Barely y = 1.33x + 13.4 14

Lentil y = 0.6x + 0.65 15

Clover y = 0 16 (Least)

* y: amount of yield reduction (%), x: Temperature (°C). R2=1 for all values


on yield reduction

Results (3/7)


on yield reduction

Results (4/7)


on yield reduction

Results (5/7)


on irrigation water requirement

Results (6/7)

Crops Equation at 30%

Rainfall Reduction

Sesame y = 12.27x + 501.5

Tomato y = 18.94x + 765.7

Chick peas y = 12.94x + 521.2

Snake-cucumber y = 16.68x + 673.3

Aloe y = 24.04x + 902.7 Aloe y = 24.04x + 902.7

Okra y = 20.19x + 814.2

Olive y = 21.74x + 766.7

Squash y = 10.20x + 364.7

Grape y = 17.73x + 610.4

Almond y = 12.71x + 464.1

Wheat y = 16.96x + 497.8

Plums y = 9.419x + 298.9

Onion y = 9.901x + 223.0

Barely y = 9.508x + 252.5

Lentil y = 6.724x + 112.9

Clover y = 4.656x + 56.49

y: Irrigation water requirement (mm); x: Temperature (°C). R2=1 for all values

3. Climate change and seasonal shift

Results (7/7)

• Any change in the climate variables will have a significant impact on

the yield reduction and the irrigation water requirement for the

selected crops.

• The crops under the study can be ranked as follows in terms of

vulnerability to potential climate change (from most to less):

sesame, tomato, chick-peas, snake-cucumber, aloe, okra, olive, squash,

grape, almond, wheat, plums, onion, barely, lentil, and clover.

Conclusions (1/1)

grape, almond, wheat, plums, onion, barely, lentil, and clover.

• Under increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation, the

yield reduction will be greater and the amount of irrigation water

required for compensating the deficit in rain fall will be greater.

• The impact of the scenario of increasing temperature on the yield

reduction and the irrigation water requirement for Jenin district

gets worse when temperature increases by 3 °C and precipitation

decreases by 30%.

• The rainy season in Palestine is shifting toward April and May with a

delay in September and October.

Recommendations (1/1)

• Planners have to think in terms of expected change in yield

reduction and irrigation water requirement due to climate change.

• This study should take place in all the Palestinian districts, in order

to make integration between these districts, so that each district

plants the most useful crop with best economical revenues.

• Adaptation measures should be considered to cope with climate

change potential impacts on yield reduction and irrigation water change potential impacts on yield reduction and irrigation water

requirement.

• Government NGOs should act immediately to raise awareness of

framers and extended farmers on these potential impacts.

• It is very important to have an agricultural policy that promotes

certain crops for specific areas of Palestine.

• Further research is needed on the appropriate time for irrigating

the plants to compensate the shortage of rainfall. Besides, other

crops should be studied.