Imperialism, globalization in crisis and Obama’s Middle Eastern empire

Introduction

o Place of report in the sessiono Reporter:

a US Jewish gay anti-imperialist … in Holland

o Reporter’s limits: not an economist not an expert on any of these countries

Overview of report

I. Imperialism: Lenin’s classic theory

II. Neoliberal globalizationIII.Armed globalization and the

‘war on terror’IV.From Bush II to Obama: in Iraq,

Afghanistan, Libya and Palestine

I. Imperialism: Lenin’s theory

The Marxist understanding of imperialism before Lenin Marx and Engels: Ireland, Poland, Algeria and India German social democracy: ‘not a man, not a penny’ Cracks in the consensus: the Moroccan crisis (1911) An outdated vision of capitalism: revisionism and

Hilferding’s Finance Capital Luxemburg’s The Accumulation of Capital The shock of 1914

Basics of Lenin’s theory

(from a non-economist!)Laissez-faire capitalism and monopoly capitalismUneven development and export of capitalCompetition for raw materialsThe division of the planet: colonial empiresSpheres of influence and semi-colonies

Colonial empires 1914

(Official) division of the world

PERCENTAGE OF TERRITORY BELONGING TO THE EUROPEAN COLONIAL POWERS (including the United States)

1876 1900 Increase or decreaseAfrica.......... 10.8 90.4 +79.6Polynesia.... 56.8 98.9 +42.1Asia............ 51.5 56.6 +5.1Australia..... 100.0 100.0 —America...... 27.5 27.2 -0.3

(Unofficial) control of the world

DISTRIBUTION (APPROXIMATE) OF FOREIGNCAPITAL IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE GLOBE(circa 1910) Britain France Germany

Total (in billions of German marks)

Europe.......... 4 23 18 45America.......... 37 4 10 51Asia, Africa, and Australia...... 29 8 7 44

Total........ 70 35 35 140

Imperialism, 1916-1982

1914-20 Re-division: German and Ottoman possessions become British, French, Italian, Japanese and US

1936-45 Failed German challenge to re-division; Italy and Japan lose their colonial possessions

1947/1956 Truman Doctrine and Suez crisis mark replacement of British by US hegemony

1949 Chinese revolution1955 Bandung: India, Indonesia, Egypt etc. gain

autonomy1975 US defeat in Vietnam1979/1980/1982 Thatcher elected; Reagan elected; debt crisis

II. Neoliberal globalization

Is imperialism still a relevant framework to analyze the post-1979 world economy?

Claudio Katz’s arguments:• Growth of inequality: dominant and dependent countries• Terms of trade• Extraction of financial resources• Transfer of industrial profits• Loss of political autonomy

Distribution of wealth (2005)

% world pop. % world GDP GDP per cap.

Dominant 14% 78% $ 31,000countries

Dependent 80% 19% $ 1,410countries

(Figures from CADTM)

Debt: the poor fund the rich

Marshall Plan aid to Europe, post-WW2: $ 90 billion

Debt payments from dependent to dominant countries, 1980-2004: $5300 billion

Number of total Marshall Plans from poor to rich: 59

Terms of trade and repatriation of profits

Ratio of prices between dependent country exports and dependent country imports:1980 1002002 48

Net repatriation of profits from dependent countries by multinational corporations, 1998-2002:$ 334 billion

Multinationals: monopoly finance capital Selected GDP of countries and revenues of multinational corporations

Countries (IMF, 2010, $ billion) 1. US $ 14,658 2. China 5,878 5. France 2,582 7. Brazil 2,09010. India 1,53812. Spain 1,41016. Netherlands 869 Egypt 218 Israel 213 Iraq 82 Afghanistan 15

Multinationals (2010/11, $ billion)1. Wal-Mart $ 4222. Exxon Mobil 3703. Shell 3684. BP 2975. Sinopec 2906. Toyota 2427. PetroChina 2228. Total 2139. Chevron 20510. Japan Post 201

Autonomy lost - and found?

IMF/World Bank/WTO: one dollar, one vote‘Structural adjustment’ and ‘conditionality’Consequences for social spending and debt repaymentConsequences for negotiating positionsBeyond dependence: China, Brazil, India(?)Signs of change: Doha, Bancosur(?)

III. Armed globalization and the ‘war on terror’

• Militarism: response to — and cause of — disintegration of peripheral states (Katz)

• Role of US:* Enforcer of neoliberal world order* Sole superpower: 50%+ of global military spending* Military-industrial complex* Military supremacy & inter-imperialist rivalries* Oil: Latin America and the Middle East

• Tools: ‘Coalitions of the willing’, NATO and UN

The post-1991 world order

The first US invasion of Iraq (1991): a decisive moment (Achcar)US military return to Gulf region (after 1962 withdrawal)Demonstration of superior US military technologyNetwork of bases and alliances

9/11: Bush’s opportunity

The intervention in Afghanistan and the US presence in Central Asia

IV. The empire and Obama

A time of deepening crisisIn Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and PalestineFactors in imperial politics in Mideast:

• Oil• Geopolitics• Alliance with Zionism• ‘Clash of civilizations’

Introduction: imperialism and globalization in the Islamic world

Glory of the Islamic world

Ottomans (and Safavids)

British and French

US imperialism

1933 US contract with Saudi king1956 Suez crisis1967 & 1973 US backs Israel1979 Iran revolution; USSR invades Afghanistan1989 USSR leaves Afghanistan1991 First US invasion of Iraq2001 9/11; US invasion of Afghanistan2003-? US invasion and occupation of Iraq2008 Descent into global slump2010/1 Arab revolutions; intervention in Libya

Lessons of Middle Eastern history

Depth of anti-imperialismOil, imperialism and populismVital interests: converging and contradictory‘The Arab despotic exception’

Oil: proven reserves (2010)

Rank Country Reserves (bil. bbp) % of total Saudi Arabia 265 19Canada 175 13Iran 138 10Iraq 115 8Kuwait 104 8United Arab Emirates 98 7Venezuela 98 7Russia 74 5Libya 47 3Nigeria 38 3

Oil: reserves by region

Oil: control

Control over oil depends less on legal ownership than on extraction and refining technology and profit-sharing

1912 Iraq: Turkish Petroleum Company founded (later Iraq Petroleum Company, European consortium)

1933 Saudi Arabia: Agreement with Standard Oil (US)1951 Iran: Parliament nationalizes oil1954 Iran: After coup, shah signs Consortium

Agreement with Western companies1972 Iraq: Ba’athist regime nationalizes oil1973 OPEC boycott of US and Netherlands2007 Iraq: Hydrocarbon law introduced in parliament

Israel: imperial liability, imperial asset

Liability• Spark of revolutions (1952 and after)• Major factor in legitimacy of independent-minded fundamentalism

(Hamas, Hezbollah)• Cost ($3 billion per year and trade benefits)• A loose cannon

Asset• A rock-solid ally• Source of expertise in spying, assassination, torture• A useful proxy for intervention (in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq…)• World’s fourth-largest military• … at a fraction of the cost of US forces

The clash of barbarisms

Islam and Arab identityThe diversity of Islam: Sunni centre and Shia crescentPetty bourgeoisie and fundamentalismThe diversity of fundamentalism: pro-imperial, anti-‘crusader’ and undecidedWomen and LGBTsFundamentalism: a deadly enemy‘March separately, strike together’The Arab revolutions: fundamentalism sidelined

Iraq

Oil (fourth largest proven reserves)Resistance: 1920s, 1958, Ba’athism‘A new Middle East’US hegemony: challenge to Russia, China … FranceUS power, Iranian influence: clash ahead?Obama’s ‘withdrawal’Ongoing resistance and solidarity

Afghanistan

No oilResistance: 19th century (Durand Line, 1893), 1979, TalibanAl-Qaeda in AfghanistanState-building?: the US (‘Enduring Freedom’), NATO (ISAF) and the UNObama’s warA difficult solidarity

Arab revolutions/intervention in Libya

An end to the ‘Arab despotic exception’?Tunisia: the sparkEgypt: the central country (since 1952)Imperialism threatened (Bahrain) or marginalized (Syria)A very unfinished process (tomorrow)Libya: oil (a bit), history of resistance (since 1911), shifting relation to imperialismThe right to assistance - and the danger of subordination

Palestine

No oilResistance: 1929, 1936, fedayeen, Intifadas (1987 & 2000)Fatah, Hamas … and the leftThe impossible second stateThe assault on Gaza (2008)Obama and the ‘peace process’Towards a new strategy?

Palestine: the impossible second state

Resistance and solidarity

The legitimacy of resistanceThe balance of military forcesOur globalization: linking civil societiesFundamentalism and democracy, capital and labourSolidarity: a political battleSolidarity: concrete tasks