implications of a nuclear build a for south african...medupi kusile work started: may 2007 april...
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Saliem Fakir, Head of the Policy
Futures Unit , WWF-SA
Implications of a Nuclear Build
for
South African
© In
du
stry
.SA
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1. How much will nuclear cost us?Nuclear capital costs according to IRP 2010 Update
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Reality check!What can we learn from the global experience?
The US
• Average cost overrun in first round of reactors 207%
Finland
• Areva EPR reactor project 50%+ overrun
The UK
• Sizewell B - cost £1.8 billion as opposed to a projected £300 million
• Hinkley Point C - Construction cost of of £7bn per reactor as opposed to
originally promised £2bn per reactor
• Most expensive power on system - £95-100/MWh, more than double
2013 wholesale electricity cost
France
• EDF’s Falmanville – Euro 3.3 bn in 2012 to Euro 8.5 bn in 2016
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More realistic capital cost estimates?
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We don’t know yet….
Russian, Chinese loans? At what cost? Are we mortgaging SA?
Public-private financing?
South African government/tax payers?
Eskom has already indicated that based on its current balance sheet and existing electricity tariffs it cannot pay.
2. How will the nuclear programme be financed in SA?
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Who carries the payment risk?
Consumers?• Higher electricity tariffs with time and cost overruns
Tax payers?
• Government guarantees’ the loans so that if company cannot repay the loans, the government, i.e., taxpayers, pay the banks back
• US - $18.5 Billion available in taxpayer loan guarantees; Industry has already requested $122 Billion in taxpayer guarantees
• Europe - Loans of €2bn for Areva’s Olkiluoto supported by loan guarantees of €700m from the French (€600m) and Swedish (€100m) governments
Vendor?
• Nuclear particularly unsuitable for turnkey contracts (vendors offer fixed terms - no matter what the project costs, buyer only pays original contract price)
• Poor record time and cost management
• Building a nuclear power plant involves a large number of companies & a large amount of site fabrication & installation
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3. What is our electricity demand and can it be met by other technologies?
IRP 2010 Update Electricity Demand Projections
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Based on capital costs alone is nuclear the best option to meet our projected demand?
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4. 9.6GW of nuclear by 2030 - Really?
Medupi Kusile
Work started: May 2007 April 2008
Estimate in Nov 2007 1st unit: April 2011/ last unit January 2015
1st unit: March 2012; Last unit December 2015
Estimate in July 2012 1st unit: August 2013; last unit May 2017
1st unit December 2014;last unit August 2018
Estimate in Feb 2014 1st unit: 2cnd half of 2014
Estimate in April 2015 Fully operational in 2021 Fully operational in 2021
What have Medupi and Kusile taught us?
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5. Spent fuel management, radioactive waste, liability issues and decommissioning costs…
Is nuclear really worth it?
Just some examples of nuclear safety and security concerns in SA:
• Security breach at Necsa’s Pelindaba facility on 28 April 2012 – incident report only submitted to NNR on 7 July 2012.
• April 2012 NNR suspended Necsa’s acceptance of nuclear waste from Koeberg following non-compliance at Vaalputs nuclear waster storage facility.
• November 2012 police discover radioactive material at a scrap metal recycling facility in Epping, Cape Town
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6. We cannot do nuclear without asking some important questions
• If affordability of electricity is a key concern for the country, how can nuclear be justified?
• How will nuclear be paid for?
• Who should pay for nuclear accidents? How should capacity to pay be ensured?
• What risks are appropriate as far as nuclear waste is concerned? Who should pay for waste management?
• Is large bulky infrastructure the route to go in light of new emerging technologies which are starting to change the energy landscape?
• Nuclear cannot meet the current electricity supply shortages– how do we prevent a oversupply when nuclear comes on board?
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Thank youEnkosi
Siyabonga kakuluNgiyabongaKe a leboga
DankieKe a lebohaKe a lebohaNgiyabonga
Ndi a livhuwandzi khense ngopfu