implications of policy changes a global overview...dec 05, 2018 · implications of policy changes...
TRANSCRIPT
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Implications of Policy Changes
– a global overview -
Eelco Dekker, Chief EU Representative
Methanol Institute
MTPCC, MMSA
Frankfurt – December 5, 2018
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Growth and Policy01
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What is driving demand growth?
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Most developments around energy applications
CHEMICALS ENERGY
Methanol-to-OlefinsRoad fuels
Marine fuels
Power
Heat
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Growth potential impacted by policies drivers
Renewable energy
CO2 reduction
Local air quality
Trade balance
ENVIRONMENT
ECONOMY
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Renewable Energy02
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RED II, the devil is in the detail
20% 32%
10% 14%
3,5%
7% max 0%
1,7%
renewable energy
renewable energy in transport
palm oil
Annex IX Part B
Annex IX Part A
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RED II modest growth at first glance
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Multipliers distort actual contribution
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Increased complexity at country level
Interpretation art. 27.1.b?
Impact of cap on
UCOME
National level reduced
because of art. 26.1
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Mixed messages for methanol
Conventional methanol
✗ Palm oil to be reduced to zero from 2021 to 2030
✗ MS have the option to reduce all food & feed crop based biofuels
to zero
✗ Increasing use of E10 could limit MTBE market
✓ Recycled carbon can contribute to the transport target
Bio-methanol
✓ When made from feedstocks in Annex IX Part A, bio-methanol is
one of the few options to meet the 3,5% minimum sub-target
✓ Benefits from double counting
✓ When used in marine, a further 1,2 multiplier is applied
e-methanol
~ Although recognised as renewable fuel, it does not qualify as
advanced, and therefore does not benefit from the sub-target nor
double counting
~ Several restrictive conditions
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CO2 emissions03
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EU CO2 regulations the most stringent
Source: https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/NEDC_CO2_cars_Apr2018_updated.eps
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Methanol helps reduce tail pipe CO 2
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Major OEMs re-evaluating methanol
Fiat Chrysler and ENI are testing a blend of 15% methanol and
5% ethanol (A20) in Fiat 500 Enjoy car sharing vehicles
Initial results demonstrate reduced tail pipe emissions
Ford R&D Aachen has tested DME and OME in single cylinder
engines in close cooperation with IDA and Oberon Fuels
Two DME demonstrator vehicles ready for field testing Q4 2018;
fuel system supplied by Prins Autogas
Blue World Technologies announced plans to construct worlds
largest methanol fuel cell factory at Port of Aalborg
The technology aims to enable 1.000 km electric capability and
3 minute refuelling time
According to reliable sources the next edition of the World Wide
Fuel Charter is being prepared
MI actively attempting to get the industry to be more nuanced in
the views on methanol, and not exclude one of the more viable
options to reduce emissions
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Local air quality04
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Shipping industry aims to reduce emissions
SOx limits
NOx limits
IMO ship pollution rules are contained in the “International Convention on the Prevention of Pollution from Ships”, known as MARPOL 73/78. On 27 September 1997, the MARPOL Convention has been amended by the “1997 Protocol”, which includes Annex VI titled “Regulations for the Prevention of Air Pollution from Ships”. MARPOL Annex VI sets limits on NOx and SOx emissions from ship exhausts, and prohibits deliberate emissions of ozone depleting substances from ships of 400 gross tonnage and above engaged in voyages to ports or offshore terminals under the jurisdiction of states that have ratified Annex VI.
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Methanol enables significant emission
reductions
Emission reductions when compared to alternative fuels currently available
(fuel oil)
source: Stena Line
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Putting things inperspective
Gasoline [1]
8,2 mg/l
Diesel [3]
65 mg/l
LC50 - Lethal dosis fish
Sources:[1] Petrobras/Statoil ASA, Safety Data Sheet, ECHA registration dossier Gasoline[2] ECHA, European Chemicals Agency, registration dossier Methane[3] ECHA, European Chemical Agency, registration dossier Diesel[4] GKG/ A/S Dansk Shell, Safety Data Sheet[5] ECHA, European Chemical Agency, registration dossier Methanol
Methanol [5]
15.400 mg/l
Methane [2]
49,9 mg/l
Heavy Fuel Oil [4]
79 mg/l
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India
Cochin shipyard
fishing vessel project
Singapore
Billion Miles propulsion unit
Nanyan TU pilot
Canada
Waterfront 7+4 chemical
tankers
China
Tianjin University and ZiChai
fishing vessel project
Austria
Hymeth project
Netherlands
Leanships project, a.o.
Sweden
Stena Germanica
SUMMETH
GreenPilot
Iceland
Fishing vessel project
Finland
Viking line methanol fuel cell
hotel load
Germany
Methanol fuel cell tourist
boats
Many marine initiatives around the world
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Methanol is a low flash point fuel
Properties HFO MGO LNG Methanol
Physical state liquid liquid cryogenic
liquid
liquid
Boiling temperature at 1 bar [oC] - 175 – 650 -/- 161 65
Density at 15oC [kg/m3] (LNG shown at -/-160oC)
989 Max. 900 448 796
Dynamic viscosity at 40oC [cSt] - 3,5 - 0,6(at 25oC)
Lower heating value [MJ/kg] 40 43 50(at -160oC, 1 bar)
20
Lubricity WSD [μm] - 280-400 - 1100
Vapour density air = 1 - >5 0,55 1,1
Flash point (TCC) [oC] >60 >60 -/-175 12
Auto ignition temperature [oC] - 250-500 540 464
Flammability limits [by % vol. of mixture] - 0,3 – 10 5 – 15 6 - 36
Source: EMSA
Study on the use of ethyl and methyl alcohol as alternative fuels in shipping
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Draft guidelines methanol completed
CCC 2
• Consider establishing WG to
develop measures for:
o Ethyl/methyl alcohol
o Fuel cells
o Low-flashpoint diesel
• Consider re-establishing CG
• Consider the need for other sub-
committees to examine drafts or
parts of them and, if so, make the
necessary request to the relevant
sub-committee(s)
CCC 1
• Establish CG to develop
measures for:
o Ethyl/methyl alcohol
o Fuel cells
o Low-flashpoint diesel
CCC 3
• Consider establishing WG
to finalize measures for:
o Ethyl/methyl alcohol
o Fuel cells
o Low-flashpoint
diesel
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MSC 97
• Approval
• Not Approved
MSC 98
• Adoption, if required
• Not Adopted
CCC 4
• Approval
• Consider establishing
WG to finalize measures
for:
o Ethyl/methyl
alcohol
o Fuel cells
o Low-flashpoint
diesel
• Not Approved
MSC 99
• Approval
• Adoption, if
required
MSC 100
• Approval
• Adoption,
if required
2019
CCC 5
• Approval
• Consider establishing
WG to finalize measures
for:
o Ethyl/methyl
alcohol
o Fuel cells
o Low-flashpoint
diesel
❖ Not clear when IGF Codes will be Approved (ie; which future CCC X)
❖ Not clear after IGF Codes will be Approved, at which MSC they could
be Adopted In Principle
❖ IMO has reserved 2024 by which IGF Codes must come into Force
❖ After Approval, IGF Codes may be implemented at flag state level
with the understanding that additional amendments may be added,
requiring compliance, before IGF Codes come into Force
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Reduce emissions whilst turning up the heat
• Industrial boilers are widely used for heating and industrial stream
• Many cities in China prohibiting use of coal and diesel fuels
• Capacity ranged from 1 to 20 ton/hour
• One steam ton capacity consumes 110 kg of methanol, and runs 24/7
• Standards developed with MI and Methanex support
• Estimated more than 1000 units, consuming over 2 MMTs methanol in
2017; growing to 5 MMT in 5 years
• https://www.methanol.org/energy/boiler-cookstoves/
• Glass/ceramic kilns – China produced 60% of world’s glass products;
methanol uses less air intake and produces cleaner flue gas for superior
finish
• Tobacco drying – One in every 3 cigarettes smoked in the world are
smoked in China
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Trade balance05
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India is developing methanol economy
NITI Aayog formed three expert groups:
• Production of Methanol and DME (coal and biomass from local resources)
• Utilization of Methanol and DME (esp. energy applications, incl road, rail,
marine, industrial boilers and cookstoves)
• Research and Development
MI committed to assisting these Expert Groups
Jointly organized Methanol Economy Seminar in Delhi (2016)
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MI opposes tariffs
• 23 August, 2018 – MI testified before U.S. Trade Representative
• Urged USTR to remove methanol from list of 6,000 products of Chinese goods for 25% tariff
• Virtually no methanol trade from China to U.S.
• U.S. becoming net methanol exporter and China the world’s largest market for methanol
• Tariffs threaten expansion of U.S. methanol production
• Reciprocal 10% tariffs on methanol now in effect, going up to 25% tariff in January
• Hopeful U.S. and China can resolve differences
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Policy interaction06
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What we do or don’t do...
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MI is actively involved in regulatory processes
The WWFC, IMO IGF and other policy
developments all impact the direction of the
methanol market potential
These processes need to be managed by:
• Coordinating tests and pilots
• Writing position papers
• Participating in working groups and committees
• Interacting with policy makers, NGO’s, and others
• Responding to consultations
• Bringing stakeholders together
• Initiating and publishing studies
• Presenting at conferences
And actively interacting with industry to
determine and agree priorities and tactics
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Methanol Institute07
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A global industry association
• First formed in 1989, the Methanol Institute (MI) serves as the trade
association for the global methanol industry.
• MI represents the world’s leading methanol producers, distributors and
technology companies from offices around the world
MI provides value to its members by:
• Ensuring safe handling of methanol and its derivatives
• Promoting methanol growth by furthering methanol as an essential
chemical commodity and an emerging source of clean and renewable
energy
• Influencing global regulatory and public policy initiatives that impact the
methanol industry
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2018 members
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CONTACTS
01
02
03
04
• G R E G D O L AN
CEO
• C H R I S C H AT T E R T O N
COO
• T I M O T H Y C H AN
Director of Government Affairs
Asia Pacific/Middle East
• L AR RY N AV I N
Senior Manager External
Affairs
05
06
• E E L C O D E K K E R
Chief EU Representative
• K AI Z H AO
Chief China Representative
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