implications of population change: labour migration
TRANSCRIPT
Labour MigrationAnne Green
Institute for Employment Research University of Warwick
A presentation given at State of the Region: Implications of Population Change event, 31 March
2009.
This presentation forms part of the Observatory’s ongoing State of the Region dialogue between policy makers and researchers on the theme of
population change.
WMRO – 31st March 2009 Implications of Population Change:
LABOUR MIGRATIONAnne E. Green
Institute for Employment Research University of Warwick, [email protected]
Introduction• Policy context for interest in geographic mobility –
especially short-term international mobility• EU: mobility as a key element of the Lisbon Strategy and European
Employment Strategy freedom of movement as a founding principle of the EU Action Plan on Skills and Mobility 2002 EU enlargements in 2004 and 2007 – transitional arrangements EURES – European Employment Services job portal – information,
advice and job-matching services New Skills for New Jobs agenda
• Non-EU: PBS
• Economic context – from economic growth to recession
The geography of A8 migrantstocks and flows (1)
• Policy interest in both stock and flows (gross and net) – in the context of literature pointing to more temporary and short-term migration
speed and scale of migration are important determinants of local impacts – and have implications for cohesion – “recessionary racism”
• Migration as a spatial phenomenon: previous migration flows tended to focus on major cities A8 migration is more spatially dispersed and shows a
greater orientation to rural areas than previous migration flows
The geography of A8 migrantstocks and flows (2)
• At national level WRS registrations peaked in 2006
• In all regions there was a substantial reduction in WRS registrations between the latter part of 2007 and 2008
reductions were particularly marked in northern England, Wales and Northern Ireland
• In all urban-rural categories in England there was a reduction in substantial reduction in WRS registrations between late 2007 and late 2008
reductions were least marked in large urban areas and the most sparsely populated rural areas
The geography of A8 migrantstocks and flows (3)
• Considerable local variation in migration trends• Changes in migration stocks and flows are likely to be
felt in different ways in different places because different areas play different roles in the migration system
gateway areas – first to feel a reduction in in-flows, but if migrant in-flows are maintained but migrants stay for shorter periods they are less likely to be impacted than are
secondary destinations
Volumes and length of stay matter
Economic and non-economic factors in understanding migration
• Economic motivations for migration predominate but non-economic factors play a role too
• Role and importance (irrespective of economic conditions) of the English language - English language skills as ‘desirable’ in most European countries and help in ‘moving on’
• Social networks may help sustain migration flows even when initial triggers decline in importance - and may also help facilitate migration flows elsewhere)
• Role of exploration / discovery – likely to remain important
The migrant’s frame of reference
• A migrant has a dual (or triple) frame of reference – relative attractiveness – in economic and non-economic terms - of:
the destination (i.e. the UK) the origin (i.e. the home country) competing destinations (i.e. alternative destinations other
than the UK)
Migrant decision-making may be more complicated than a simple comparison of economic conditions in the destination and the origin country
Relative importance of different factors in different places is likely to vary between individuals
Project on Short-term International Mobility (for European Commission)
Short-term international mobility is a particular type of geographical mobility of longer duration than weekly commuting but not involving a permanent change of residence
blurring between different types of mobility – scope for substitution of different types as one morphs into another ￫ challenges for definition
Short-term: UN definition is 3-12 months, but interest in 1-12 months
Methods: Literature review, Data search and review, Interviews with EURES advisers
Workers’ geographical mobilityHigh Type of production-
related move
Circulation - Daily
Commuting
Long distance (weekly) commuting
Circulation – at least one (usually several) overnight stays
SHORT-TERM
ASSIGNMENTS / MOBILITY
Freq
uenc
y of
mov
emen
t
Permanent Relocation
Labour Migration (intra- and inter-
organisational moves)
Low
Duration of move
High
Visitors and migrants – duration of move
Short-term migrants
Visitors
Long-term migrants
Intended or reported length of stay
Freq
uenc
y
3 months 12 months
Selected terms and definitions
• Short-term / temporary mobility• Commuter assignments
• Expatriate
• International cadre/ Career expatriates
• Internship
• Placement• Posted worker
• Rotational assignment:
• Seasonal working
• Secondment
• Virtual assignment
Literature review: key issues• Dearth of empirical studies focusing specifically on short-
term international mobility• International transferees within large corporations: short-term international mobility is becoming increasingly
important - due to cost pressures and HR issues mobility is often project-based and focuses on technical
skills transfer
• Free movers: studies tend to be less common some adopt a biographical approach the consensus is that short-term international mobility is
difficult to measure
Evidence from EURES advisers and relocation specialists
• Highlighted importance of short-term international mobility, while being unable to quantify trends
important role of private sector recruitment agencies
• Motivations for short-term international mobility: prompted by project requirements a way of escaping unemployment economic motivation – earn more money elsewhere need to gain (international) work experience – and
language skills ‘discovery migration’
Synthesis• There is no single universally accepted definition of a
‘short-term international assignment’
• Short-term international mobility is one aspect of workers’ mobility
• There is limited information on several of these dimensions – ‘known unknowns’
• No one ‘typical’ individual engaged in short-term international mobility – from managers and professionals in international corporations to unskilled workers engaged in less skilled work
• Most movers are relatively young
Review of statistical data: general issues• Distinction between: stocks: the number of movers
present at a particular point in time
flows: the number of moves
• The most mobile groups arethe most difficult to capture instatistical data sources andshorter duration moves aremore difficult to capturethan longer duration ones
x
x
Time
x
x
x
y
y
y
y
y
X = start of moveY = end of move
Individuals
T1 T2 T3
Time
x
x
x
y
y
y
y
y
X = start of moveY = end of move
Individuals
T1 T2 T3
A
B
C
D
E
Individuals’ contribution to a stock estimate of short-term moves
Key data sources• No single data source provides comprehensive
information on geographical mobility• No population registration system
• Survey and census sources International Passenger Survey (IPS); estimates of Total
International Migration; Census of Population; Labour Force Survey; ad hoc local surveys
• Administrative sources National Insurance numbers registered to overseas
nationals; Worker Registration Scheme; Work permits
• Development of e-borders
Improving intelligence• Principle of free movement means that it should be
possible to move freely between Member States without providing details of a reason for moving or of intended length of stay
• Possibility of conducting Web surveys on movers’ motivations, changing intentions, etc, to derive intelligence on emerging trends and issues
• Consider how and whether to make greater use of other labour market intermediaries in deriving intelligence on trends in volume of short-term international mobility and characteristics of movers
• Possibility of sectoral case studies on short-term international mobility
• Longitudinal study – want to develop a study following up migrants in the West Midlands as they move
Contact details
Anne GreenInstitute for Employment ResearchUniversity of WarwickE [email protected] +44 (0)2476 524113Web www.warwick.ac.uk/ier/
Stephen HowarthDeputy Chief ExecutiveWest Midlands Regional ObservatoryE [email protected] +44 (0)121 202 3258Web www.wmro.orgBlog http://wmro.wordpress.com
Rosie DayResearch AnalystWest Midlands Regional ObservatoryE [email protected] +44 (0)121 202 3286Web www.wmro.orgBlog http://wmro.wordpress.com