importance of decision making
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Importance of Decision Making. Measure Regulation Influence. What Makes Making a (Good) Decision so Difficult?. Multiple Criteria conflicting values Intangibles Unknowables, Unmeasurables Uncertainty Consequences Long/Short ; Near/Far ; Intended/Unintended - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Importance of Decision Making
• Measure
• Regulation
• Influence
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Impact
Process
Assess/Understand
Thinking
Perceptual Issues
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What Makes Making a (Good) Decision so Difficult?
• Multiple Criteria– conflicting values
• Intangibles– Unknowables, Unmeasurables
• Uncertainty• Consequences
– Long/Short ; Near/Far ; Intended/Unintended• Our Knowledge is Always Incomplete• Our Knowledge is influenced by Perception
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What do you see?
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What do you see now?
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Paris
in the
the Spring
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Types of Decisions Managers Make
• Programmed
• Non-Programmed
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A company was losing money. Key managers were asked to investigate the
decline in sales• Marketing Manager framed the problem…
– a lack of advertising & promotional support• Sales Manager framed the problem…
– a lack of promotion and distributor support programs• Manufacturing framed the problem…
– inaccurate forecasting by marketing and sales, causing poor production planning
• Finance framed the problem…– budget overruns by all departments and unreliable
forecasts by marketing
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Some Decision Traps• (Mis-) Framing
– limiting our questions• Anchoring
– disproportionate wt to 1st info, biasing subsequent thinking• Status Quo
– decisions tend to involve the least change• Confirming Evidence
– use of (only) data that confirms pt of view• Escalation of Commitment
– “throwing good $ after bad”, “avoid being wrong in the past”• Overconfidence
– never doubting what one believes– fear of admitting that you don’t know
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Decisions are Made:
• Individually• Individually But With the
Consultation of Others• Group
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Group Decision Making
• GroupThink• Debating Group• Ideal Group Process
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GroupThink
ConvergentThought
Problem A Conclusion
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Discussion& Debate Problem
No Action Decision Process
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Ideal Decision Process
Problem Dialogue Discussion Action
Divergent Thinking
Convergent Thinking
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Ways of Dealing with Problems• Avoid making a decision
– simply ignore an issue exists
• Reactive in making a decision
– event level mgmt, problems of the day, circumstance directed
• Proactive in making a decision
– anticipate, prevention, problems=opportunity
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Ways to Find a Solution• Logical/Rational Thinking
– reductionistic, one-at-a-time, mechanical, memory based
• Intuitive Thinking
– connecting many, relationships, flexible, less reliance on mechanical thinking, creative
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Confidence vs UncertaintyD
egre
e of
Con
fiden
ce
Amount of Uncertainty
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Types of Problems Managers Face• Structured
– familiar, constant circumstances
• Unstructured
– ambiguity, not logically apparent
• Crises
– isolate and identify real issue, time is short, full information is lacking
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Common Mistakes in Problem Solving
• Deciding on the Focus
• Confusing Symptoms for the Problem
• Selecting the Wrong Problem
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A Problem Solving Process• Identify & Define the Problem• Analyze the Potential Causes & Gather
Information• Generate Possible Solutions• Evaluate & Select a Course of Action• Implement the Solution• Monitor and Follow Up & If not
solved, return to step 2 above
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Given the following symptoms, what is the problem and what is your plan for its resolution?
PersonalFinancialWorries
BalancingWork & Family
Little or norecognitionof achievement
Poor InternalCommunication
PoorLeadership
Burdened w/work hrs & load
Insuff. Resources
Lack ofMgt Support
Co.Politics
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What is Creativity?• An Attitude
– willingness to embrace doubt, uncertainty, curious
– willingness to suspend judgment • An Ability
– to generate new ideas, to be playful with ideas– to seek challenge– constructive discontent
• A Process– it takes time, it is not the result of a single
stroke of brilliance
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The Creative Process
Preparation Incubation
Elaboration
Evaluation
Insight
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Creativity• Preparation
– Knowledge– Non-mechanical thinking
• Incubation & Insight– Unconscious thinking– Intuition– Creative Leap
• Evaluation & Elaboration: Development– Seeking the logic of it all– Reality altering check
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Critical vs Creative Thinking
• Analytic• Linear• Objective• Rational• Logical• Convergent• Left Brain
• Generative• Non-Linear• Subjective• Non-Rational• Non-Logical• Divergent• Right Brain
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Obstacles to Creativity• Looking for the Right Answers• Trying to be Logical• Strictly following The Rules & Tradition• Avoiding Ambiguity• Having an Expert Mind vs Beginners Mind• Fearing Failure• Forgetting How To Play• Believing “You’re not Creative”• Failure to Express (& Be Playful with) Ideas• Failure to be Open, Flexible & Tolerant to Different
Ideas– prejudice, stereotype thinker, rigid