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IMPROVE OUR ABILITY TO IDENTIFY DESIRED FUTURE CONDITIONS OF BOTH VEGETATION CONDITIONS AND LEVELS OF DISTURBANCE PROCESSES CAPTURE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN VEGETATION PATTERNS AND DISTURBANCE PROCESSES PROVIDE FOR A QUANTIFICATION OF THE RANGE OF VARIABILITY FOR BOTH VEGETATION CONDITIONS AND DISTURBANCE PROCESSES HANDLE DISTURBANCE PROCESSES AS STOCHASTIC EVENTS CONSIDER THE IMPACT ON DISTURBANCE PROCESSES FROM SPATIAL OPTIONS IN TREATMENTS INTEGRATE KNOWLEDGE FROM RESEARCH STUDIES, FINE SCALE MODELS AND EXPERT OPINION Modeling Landscapes with SIMPPLLE for Decision Support OBJECTIVES SYSTEM DESIGN APPLICATIONS APPLICATION LOCATIONS Sim ulated acres offire process by treatm entscenario over a 50 yearperiod 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 no treatm ents alt1 alt 2 alt3 alt4 acres offire srf m sf lsf 27 % 64 % 24 % 24 % 9 % 66 % 67 % 9 % 10 % 27 % 51 % 22 % 14 % 26 % 62 % HISTO R IC FIR E OVER 500 YEARS 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 DECADE ACRES LS F M SF SRF SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape scaLEs TO HELP DESIGN AND EVALUATE MANAGEMENT IN A COLLABRATIVE FASHION WITH AN UNDERSTANDING OF LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS White spruce 3,237,498 hectares Beaverhead-Deerlodge NF 483,297 hectares 113,196 hectares Potential old growth conditions under three different fuel treatment levels Models from thousands of hectares to millions of hectares Model time steps in decades, years, and seasons Models trees, shrubs and grasses PROJECT PLANNING WATERSHED ASSESSMENT Interaction of vegetation, aquatics, landforms, and manmade features GIS input Locatio n & Severity o f D istu rb ance P rocesses Sched ule o f Treatm en ts in Tim e & Space Step 1:Multiple Sim ulations ofNo Action Step 2:Optim ization based on Managem ent Objectives & C onstraints SIM P PLLE M AGIS SIM PPLLE C alculated O verallE ffects and Econom ics Step 4:A pply SIMPPLLE treatm en t-process sim ulations to MAGIS M AGIS Locatio n & Severity o f D istu rb ance P rocesses Step 3:Multiple Sim ulations forTesting Each MAGIS Scenario SEQ UEN CE O F U S IN G SIM PPLLE (sim ulation) AN D M A G IS (optim ization) FOREST PLAN REVISION RESOURCE SUITABILITY ANALYSIS Mixed Conifers Southern Pines Jack Pine Chaparral Sagebrush & Pinion-Juniper All vegetation types in Northern Rocky Mountains Ponderosa Pine & Pinion-Juniper Grasslands Mixed Conifers Hydrologic response modeled by linking SIMPPLLE output to the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a USGS system. A SOFTWARE DESIGN THAT PROVIDES FLEXIBILITY TO MODEL IN ONE SYSTEM: Model with polygons or grids

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Modeling Landscapes with SIMPPLLE for Decision Support. HANDLE DISTURBANCE PROCESSES AS STOCHASTIC EVENTS. CONSIDER THE IMPACT ON DISTURBANCE PROCESSES FROM SPATIAL OPTIONS IN TREATMENTS. PROVIDE FOR A QUANTIFICATION OF THE RANGE OF VARIABILITY FOR BOTH VEGETATION CONDITIONS AND - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: IMPROVE OUR ABILITY TO IDENTIFY DESIRED FUTURE CONDITIONS OF BOTH VEGETATION CONDITIONS AND LEVELS

IMPROVE OUR ABILITY TO IDENTIFYDESIRED FUTURE CONDITIONS OF BOTHVEGETATION CONDITIONS AND LEVELSOF DISTURBANCE PROCESSES

CAPTURE THE INTERACTION BETWEENVEGETATION PATTERNS AND DISTURBANCEPROCESSES

PROVIDE FOR A QUANTIFICATION OFTHE RANGE OF VARIABILITY FOR BOTHVEGETATION CONDITIONS AND DISTURBANCE PROCESSES

HANDLE DISTURBANCE PROCESSESAS STOCHASTIC EVENTS

CONSIDER THE IMPACT ON DISTURBANCE PROCESSES FROM SPATIAL OPTIONSIN TREATMENTS

INTEGRATE KNOWLEDGE FROM RESEARCH STUDIES,FINE SCALE MODELS AND EXPERT OPINION

Modeling Landscapes with SIMPPLLEfor Decision Support

OBJECTIVES

SYSTEM DESIGN

APPLICATIONS

APPLICATION LOCATIONS

Simulated acres of fire process by treatment scenario over a 50 year period

020000

4000060000

80000100000

120000140000

no treatments alt 1 alt 2 alt 3 alt 4

ac

res

of

fire

srf

msf

lsf

27 %

64 %

24 % 24 %

9 %

66 % 67 %

9 %10 %

27 %

51 %

22 %14 %

26 %

62 %

HISTORIC FIREOVER 500 YEARS

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

DECADE

AC

RE

S

LSF MSF SRF

SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape scaLEs

TO HELP DESIGN AND EVALUATEMANAGEMENT IN A COLLABRATIVEFASHION WITH AN UNDERSTANDING OF LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS

White spruce

3,237,498 hectares Beaverhead-Deerlodge NF

483,297 hectares

113,196 hectares

Potential old growth conditions under three different fuel treatment levels

Models from thousands ofhectares to millions of hectares

Model time steps in decades, years, and seasons

Models trees, shrubsand grasses

PROJECT PLANNING

WATERSHED ASSESSMENT

Interaction of vegetation, aquatics,landforms, and manmade features

GIS input

Location & Severity of Disturbance Processes

Schedule of Treatments in Time & Space

Step 1: Multiple Simulations of No Action

Step 2: Optimization based on Management Objectives & Constraints

SIMPPLLE

MAGIS

SIMPPLLE

Calculated Overall Effects and Economics

Step 4: Apply SIMPPLLE treatment -process simulations to MAGIS

MAGIS

Location & Severity of Disturbance Processes

Step 3: Multiple Simulations for Testing Each MAGIS Scenario

SEQUENCE OF USI NG SI MPPLLE (simulation) AND MAGI S (optimization)

FOREST PLAN REVISION

RESOURCE SUITABILITY ANALYSIS

Mixed Conifers

Southern Pines

Jack Pine

Chaparral

Sagebrush & Pinion-Juniper

All vegetation types in Northern Rocky Mountains

Ponderosa Pine & Pinion-Juniper

Grasslands

Mixed Conifers

Hydrologic response modeled by linking SIMPPLLE output to the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a USGS system.

A SOFTWARE DESIGN THAT PROVIDES FLEXIBILITY TO MODEL IN ONE SYSTEM:

Model with polygons orgrids

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