improved prediction of the vertical profile of atmospheric ... · improved prediction of the...
TRANSCRIPT
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Improved prediction of the vertical profile of atmospheric black carbon: development and evaluation of WRF
CMAQ
Annmarie G. Carlton
K. Fahey, J. Baek, N. Sareen, B. Marmo, M. Moeller, C. Farkas
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CAA is most successful US bill EVER Bush Administration OMB estimated Benefit to cost ratio is $30:$1, 2nd place bill is $2:$1
Credit: Chester Higgins, Jr. 1973 http://magictouchimaging.com/gwbridge.html
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Vertical profile: motivation to get it right
Aloft aerosols above clouds scatter diffuse backscatter and are subject to less removal processes
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Simple organic cloud chemistry changes vertical profile
OC predictions in base model
OC predictions when cloud SOA is added to CMAQ
WSOC measurements
Carlton et al., ES&T, 2008
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Cloud Processing
multiphase chemistry
O3
OH OH
vertical redistribution of trace species
Δ in aerosol population GMD (droplet mode)
oxidation chemistry
OH SO2 WSOGs NOx O3
ANTHRO BIOGENIC
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~rrGERS
Cloud aqSOA -----...--- ... • Goud droplets •
L Aqueou
Chemistry e e• ,ao..so"' p.erosO
Deliquesced • • • • aeroS<JI • • •
• • • •
React~ve l organic emissions
If) t.,.~ <p. ·I•.,. .
:i::: 0:: OI c ·v;
~ u .5
Water evaporation
••• • • ••••• ••••• aqSOA
-------------------------Adapted from Ervens et al., 2011 .)
Atmosphere is a Continuum
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Atmosphere is a Continuum
But we discretize the continuity equation in time with operator splitting
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Aqueous Chemistry in CMAQ: AQCHEM
Aitken scavenging
SO4, NO3, NH4, EC, POA, SOA, PRI, NA, CL, ORGC, NUM, SOILC, ANTHC, SEASC, FEACC, CAACC, MNACC, MGACC, KACC
If LWC > 0.01 g/m3
Gases
SO2, H2O2, O3, MHP, PAA, HNO3, NH3, N2O5, H2SO4, OH, MGLY, GLY, CO2, HCOOH, HCl
Wet deposition
H*p = Caq
SO2 <-> γ−HSO3 - + γ+H+
γ-HSO3 - <-> γ2-SO3
2- + γ+H+
…
Dissociation/Associ ation
SIV + O3 -> SO4 2
HSO3 - + H2O2 -> SO4
2
SIV + O2 (Fe3+, Mn2+) -> SO4 2
HSO3- + MHP -> SO4 2
HSO3- + PAA -> SO4 2
MGLY, GLY + OH -> 0.04 ORGC
Chemistry
*Based on original RADM model (Chang et al., 1987; and Walcek and Taylor, 1986)
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Molar conc. = initial amt. – amt. deposited (mol L-1)
bisection for pH, initial guesses between 0.01 – 10
liquid conc. (mol L-1) SO4, HSO4, SO3, HSO3, CO3, HCO3, OH, NH4, HCO2, NO3, Cl
Start iteration and bisection (3000 iterations)
Calc. final gas phase p. pressure of SO2, NH3, HNO3, HCOOH, CO2
liquid conc. (mol L-1) SO4, HSO4, SO3, HSO3, CO3, HCO3, OH, NH4, HCO2, NO3, Cl
Check for convergence
Check for convergence Compute ionic strength and activity coefficient (Davies Eqn.)
Calculate liquid concentrations and final gas phase concs. of oxdidants
Kinetic calcs Cal. Min time step – check for large time step SIV oxidized < 0.05 of SIV oxidized since time 0, double DT Don’t let DT > TAUCLD
1000 max. iterations Compute wet depositions and phase concentrations for each species
TIME = TAUCLD (OR 1000 iterations)
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t. – amt. deposited (m
Molar conc. = initial am ol L-1)partitioning bisection for pH, initial guesses between 0.01 – 10
liquid conc. (mol L-1) SO4, HSO4, SO3, HSO3, CO3, HCO3, OH, NH4, HCO2, NO3, Cl
Start iteration and bisection (3000 iterations)
Calc. final gas phase p. pressure of SO2, NH3, HNO3, HCOOH, CO2
liquid conc. (mol L-1) SO4, HSO4, SO3, HSO3, CO3, HCO3, OH, NH4, HCO2, NO3, Cl
Check for convergence
Check for convergence Compute ionic strength and activity coefficient (Davies Eqn.)
Calculate liquid concentrations and final gas phase concs. of oxdidants
Kinetic calcs Cal. Min time step – check for large time step SIV oxidized < 0.05 of SIV oxidized since time 0, double DT Don’t let DT > TAUCLD
1000 max. iterations Compute wet depositions and phase concentrations for each species
TIME = TAUCLD (OR 1000 iterations)
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t. – amt. deposited (m
– 10
Molar conc. = initial am ol Lpartitioning bisection for pH, initial guesses between 0.01 pH
-1)
liquid conc. (mol L-1) SO4, HSO4, SO3, HSO3, CO3, HCO3, OH, NH4, HCO2, NO3, Cl
Start iteration and bisection (3000 iterations)
Calc. final gas phase p. pressure of SO2, NH3, HNO3, HCOOH, CO2
liquid conc. (mol L-1) SO4, HSO4, SO3, HSO3, CO3, HCO3, OH, NH4, HCO2, NO3, Cl
Check for convergence
Check for convergence Compute ionic strength and activity coefficient (Davies Eqn.)
Calculate liquid concentrations and final gas phase concs. of oxdidants
Kinetic calcs Cal. Min time step – check for large time step SIV oxidized < 0.05 of SIV oxidized since time 0, double DT Don’t let DT > TAUCLD
1000 max. iterations Compute wet depositions and phase concentrations for each species
TIME = TAUCLD (OR 1000 iterations)
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t. – amt. deposited (m
– 10
)
3, HNO3
liquid conc. (mol L-1) SO4, HSO4, SO3, HSO3, CO3, HCO3, OH, NH4, HCO2, NO3, Cl
Start iteration and bisection (3000 iterations
Calc. final gas phase p. pressure of SO2, NH , HCOOH, CO2
Molar conc. = initial am ol Lpartitioning bisection for pH, initial guesses between 0.01 pH
partitioning
-1)
liquid conc. (mol L-1) SO4, HSO4, SO3, HSO3, CO3, HCO3, OH, NH4, HCO2, NO3, Cl
Check for convergence
Check for convergence Compute ionic strength and activity coefficient (Davies Eqn.)
Calculate liquid concentrations and final gas phase concs. of oxdidants
Kinetic calcs Cal. Min time step – check for large time step SIV oxidized < 0.05 of SIV oxidized since time 0, double DT Don’t let DT > TAUCLD
1000 max. iterations Compute wet depositions and phase concentrations for each species
TIME = TAUCLD (OR 1000 iterations)
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t. – amt. deposited (m
– 10
)
3, HNO3
oefficient (Davies E
Compute ionic strength and activity c
Calculate liquid concentrations and final gas phase concs. of oxdidants
Kinetic calcs
liquid conc. (mol L-1) SO4, HSO4, SO3, HSO3, CO3, HCO3, OH, NH4, HCO2, NO3, Cl
Start iteration and bisection (3000 iterations
Calc. final gas phase p. pressure of SO2, NH
Molar conc. = initial am ol L-1)
, HCOOH, CO2
qn.)
partitioning bisection for pH, initial guesses between 0.01 pH
partitioning
pH
liquid conc. (mol L-1) SO4, HSO4, SO3, HSO3, CO3, HCO3, OH, NH4, HCO2, NO3, Cl
Check for convergence
Check for convergence
Cal. Min time step – check for large time step SIV oxidized < 0.05 of SIV oxidized since time 0, double DT Don’t let DT > TAUCLD
1000 max. iterations Compute wet depositions and phase concentrations for each species
TIME = TAUCLD (OR 1000 iterations)
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t. – amt. deposited (m
– 10
)
3, HNO3
oefficient (Davies E
me step – chec zed < 0.05 of SIV
Compute ionic strength and activity c
Calculate liquid concentrations and final gas phase concs. of oxdidants
liquid conc. (mol L-1) SO4, HSO4, SO3, HSO3, CO3, HCO3, OH, NH4, HCO2, NO3, Cl
Start iteration and bisection (3000 iterations
Calc. final gas phase p. pressure of SO2, NH , HCOOH, CO2
Molar conc. = initial am
qn.)
ol Lpartitioning bisection for pH, initial guesses between 0.01
pH
pH
partitioning
-1)
liquid conc. (mol L-1) SO4, HSO4, SO3, HSO3, CO3, HCO3, OH, NH4, HCO2, NO3, Cl
Check for convergence
Check for convergence
Cal. Min ti
Don’t let DT > TAUCLD oxidized since time 0, double DT SIV oxidi
k for large time step oxidation
Kinetic calcs
1000 max. iterations Compute wet depositions and phase concentrations for each species
TIME = TAUCLD (OR 1000 iterations)
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t. – amt. deposited (m
– 10
)
3, HNO3
oefficient (Davies E
me step – chec zed < 0.05 of SIV
e concentrations
Compute ionic strength and activity c
Calculate liquid concentrations and final gas phase concs. of oxdidants
liquid conc. (mol L-1) SO4, HSO4, SO3, HSO3, CO3, HCO3, OH, NH4, HCO2, NO3, Cl
Start iteration and bisection (3000 iterations
Calc. final gas phase p. pressure of SO2, NH , HCOOH, CO2
Molar conc. = initial am
qn.)
ol Lpartitioning bisection for pH, initial guesses between 0.01
pH
pH
partitioning
-1)
liquid conc. (mol L-1) SO4, HSO4, SO3, HSO3, CO3, HCO3, OH, NH4, HCO2, NO3, Cl
Check for convergence
Check for convergence
Cal. Min ti
Don’t let DT > TAUCLD oxidized since time 0, double DT SIV oxidi
k for large time step oxidation
Kinetic calcs
1000 max. iterations Compute wet depositions and phas for each species deposition TIME = TAUCLD (OR 1000 iterations)
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AQchem with Rosenbrock solver and kinetic mass transfer: AQCHEM-KMT
SO2(g)
H2O2(g)
e.g.,
SO2 γ-HSO3 - + γ+H+
γ-HSO3 - γ2-SO3
2- + γ+H+
SO4
dC k dCg ,i mt ,i aero ,i= −k w C + C = −Amt ,i L g ,i aq,i scav ,idt H i RT dt R2 4Rkmt = ( d + d )−1
υ = ( 8RT )1/ 2
3D 3αυinterfacial processes by Schwartz (1986) g πMW
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,
Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP)* translates chemical mechanism (e.g., species, Rxns, rate coefficients) to Fortran90 exploits Jacobian sparsity modularity allows “easy”incorporation of new chemical mechanisms and/or solvers can generate the tangent linear or adjoint
Integrator, precision,
Fortran90language, modules driver, speciand rate subroutines expressions,
“inlined code”,etc.
KPP es
Equations file.eqn
Species file.spc
KPP input/definition
files.kpp
V. Damian, A. Sandu, M. Damian, F. Potra, and G.R. Carmichael, ``The Kinetic PreProcessor KPP -- A Software Environment for Solving Chemical Kinetics'', Computers and Chemical Engineering, 26(11), 1567-1579, 2002.
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Modeled processes and rate coefficients Process Equations Rate
coefficients Other information
Gas-Liquid phase transfer
aq i k
g i CC f ,, → Lmtf wkk = 1
2 1
3 4
3)(
−
−
+=
υ α a
D a
vol vol sk
gaq
air mt
Liquid-Gas phase transfer
g i k
aq i CC b ,, →
RTH kk T i
mt b
,
=
Dissociation +− +→ HCC aq i k
aq i f 1
,, kb = literature value, independent of T
bi Tf kKeqk , =
−
− ∆ =
TrefTR HKeqKeq a
i Trefi T 11
,,
Activity coefficients are rolled into the forward and backward rates as appropriate
Association aq i
k aq i CHC b
, 1 , →+ +−
Aitken scavenging
aq iaer i akn CC ,, , α → α α is the attachment rate for interstitial aerosols (an input to AQCHEM)
Wet deposition
WD i Wdep
aq i CC ,, →
wash
Wdep τ
1 = ( ) 0,0. 03600. sec d
PRCRATE dCTHKWTAVG
wash ××
=τ
Chemical kinetics
,3,2,1 aq k
aqaq CCC rxn→+ krxn Complex rate coefficients that are set according to 5.0.2 base mechanism
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Impact of droplet diameter and initial pH DIAMETER EFFECTS pH0 EFFECT
Ddr
ople
t =
40μm
30
20
10
302010 1.4 0.8 0.2
1.4
0.8
0.2 y=0.9298x R2=0.9543
y=0.8133x R2=0.8572
sulfate Cloud SOA sulfate
10 20 30
30
20
10 y=0.8729x R2=0.9356
Initi
al p
H =
3
Initial pH = 7 Ddroplet = 5μm
Cloud droplet size changes kmt and impacts SO4 and SOAcloud
Suggests continued development of linkages between microphysics (e.g., effective cloud droplet radius, activated aerosol fraction) and aqueous phase chemistry is needed
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Impacts of AQCHEM-KMT in CMAQ Jan. 2011 average SO4 difference January 2011 average SO4 4 0.2
3
0.1 2
1
0 -0.01 µg m-3
Typically < 10% (max: 16%) ∆ in monthly average surface SO4
Hourly differences can be more substantial: max. ∆SO4,hr = 16 µg/m3
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J\!-ITGERS
Current SOA reactions in CMAQ GLY +OH -7 0.04 • ORGC k1 = 3.0ElO M-1 5-!
MGLY +OH -7 0.04 * ORGC k1 = 3.0ElO M-1 5-!
Explicit reactions in new box model
GCOL + OH 7 GCOLAC + H 20 + H02
GCOL + OH 7 GLY + H0 2 GCOLAC + OH 7 GLYAC + W + H0 2
GCOLAC + OH 7 GLYAC- + H0 2
GLY +OH 7 GLYAC + H0 2
GLYAC +OH 7 OXLAC + H20 + H0 2
GLYAC- + OH 7 OXLAC + H20 + H02
OXLAC + 2 OH 7 2 C02 + 2 H20 OXLAC + OH 7 C02 + C02 - + 2 H20 OXLAC2- + OH 7 C02 + C02 - + OH·
MGLY +OH 7 0.92 PYRAC- + 0.08 GLYAC- + H02 + H20 PYRAC + OH ~ CH
3C0
2H + C0
2 + H0
2
PYRAC + OH 7 CH3C02• + C02 + H0 2 CH3C02H + OH ~ 0.85 GLYAC + 0. 15 CH20 HYO CH
3C0
2- + OH 7 0.85 GLYAC- + 0.15 CH
20HYD
CHzOHYO + OH 7 HCOOH + H20 + H0 2
HCOOH + OH ~ H20 + H02
GCOL - glycolaldehyde
GLY- glyoxa l
OXLAC - oxalic acid
PYRAC- pyruvic acid
CH 20HYD - hydrated formaldehyde
kl= S.OE8 M·1 5·l
kl= l .OE9 M·1 5·l
k l = 6.0E8 M·1 5-l
kl= 8.6E8 M·1 5-l
k l = 1.1E9 • EXP(-1516/RT) M -1 5-1
k l = 1.SE8 M·1 5·l
k l = l.2E9 M·1 5·I
k l = l .4E6 M·1 5-l
kl= 4.7E7 M·1 5-l
k1 = 7.7E6 M-1 5-l
k1 = 7.0E8 M-1 5-l
k l = 6.0E7 M·1 5·l
k l = 6.0E7 M"1 5-l
k l = l .6E7 M·1 5-l
k l = 8.5E7 M-1 5-l
k l = 1.1E9 • EXP(-1020/RT) M-1 5·1
k l = l .2E8 • EXP(-990/RT) M"1 s·t
GCOLAC - glycolic acid
G LYAC - glyoxylic acid
MGLY - methylglyoxal
CH3C02H - acetic acid
Explicit Oxidation Mechanism
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Explicit aqueous organic chemistry Introduces pH dependence to SOAcld
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0.015 0.1 0.3
OR
GC
(μg
m-3
)
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
Current Yield Approach Explicit Chemistry
0.015 0.1 0.3
Liquid Water Content (kg m-3)
Explicit chemistry does not perturb the averages, but increases variability in cloud SOA predictions
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Average SOAcloud
surface 800 mb
-50 0 50
ng m-3
AQChem-KMT KPP CMAQ simulations: explicit GLY, MGLY oxidation – psuedo 1st order approximation 10 day average during July 2013
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Average Total SOA
surface 800 mb
0.1-0.1 0 μg m-3
AQChem-KMT KPP CMAQ simulations: explicit GLY, MGLY oxidation – psuedo 1st order approximation 10 day average during July 2013
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Conclusions and Future Directions
New solver for aqueous chemistry implemented in CMAQ, available through CMAS
Droplet size dependent chemistry changes SO4 and cloud SOA production amounts and variability
Explicit Chemistry for organic species changes average cloud SOA values at the surface and aloft and introduces a pH dependence
Explicit calculation of the adjoint for cloud chemistry is now possible.
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BC Inspired ice chemistry
From CMAQ subroutine scavwdep.F:
C... NOTE: for now, scavenging coefficients are computed for only
C... the liquid water content, not on the total water content C... therefore, no ice phase scavenging is considered at this C... time, but it should be added in the future!
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Ice chemistry
Ice Particle
H₂O₂ and SO₂
Adsorbed gases react to form SO₄
H₂O₂(g)
adsorb to cloud ice
SO₂(g)
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HNO3(g) HNO3 (ads)
HNO₃(g) 25% Partitioning Case
Ice Particle
HNO₃ adsorbs to surface of the Ice
100% Partitioning Case
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Differences in Gas Phase HNO₃ Differences in gas phase HNO₃ concentrations between 100% partitioning case and LNOx case at 400 mb for 0Z on August 12th.
Units: ppb
Units: %
a) b)Absolute Differences Percent Differences
Maximum decreases in gas phase HNO₃ were near 0.10 ppb or 25%
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Conclusions
• HNO₃ partitioning to ice is an important process in the atmosphere • Decreases in gas phase HNO₃ were as high as 25%
• This resulted in decreases in NOx and HONO near 10% • Increases in particulate nitrate mass were as high as
0.15 μg/m³
• Very little sulfate formed on ice: the reaction as implemented did not change predictions
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J\!-ITGERS
0.16
c;; 0.14 c 0
.:t!. 0.12 ll'l c .~ 0.1
11'1 ll'l ·-E 0.02
LU Ill r.i 0 .06 ~ 0.. 0.04
0 .02
SMOKE vs. Carlton Group - PM2.s Emissions B.L. England - New Jersey Coal Plant
2006 - SMOKE/NE!
- CEM Calculated
0 ..µ....a......._ .......... L.....l........u,u.&.~~LUU.. ........................... ~ ............ --"'-~~~~~....___....,__......._~ ................... ......._---1
1/ 1 2/1 3/1 4/ 1 5/1 6/ 1 7 / 1 8/1 9/ 1 10/1 11/ 1 12/ 1
Date
BC inspired emissions
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J\!-ITGERS
0.16
-~ 0.14 0
.:!:. 0.12 Ill e .9 0 .1 Ill Ill ·-E o.os I.I.I Ill 1'i 0.06
~ Q. 0.04
0.02
SMOKE vs. Carlton Group - PM2.s Emissions B.L. England - New Jersey Coal Plant - sMoKE/NEI
July 12- 25, 2006 - CEM Calcula t ed
0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 . ' • Hours
SUMMER COMPARISON
Wednesday
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CMAQ RESULTS
Ambient PM2.5 Maximum Increase July 12, 2006 – July 25, 2006
100
86
71
57
43
29
14
0
Per
cent
Incr
ease
Maximum increases of >100% at some sites 34
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CMAQ RESULTS
Ambient PM2.5 Maximum Increase July 12, 2006 – July 25, 2006
3.0
2.7
2.2
1.8
1.3
0.9
0.4
0
µg m
-3
Maximum Increase > 6 μg m-3 40% of annual standard
35
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Conclusions:
PM2.5 emissions increase up to 500% during heat waves compared to base case SMOKE calculated emissions
Up to 2x ambient PM2.5 mass concentrations during heat wave when emissions are re-temporalized
Robust inclusion of 520 unmatched CEMs and plants with multiple fuels and evaluating findings.
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Acknowledgements
• Gerald Gipson • Shawn Roselle • Adrian Sandu • CMAQ, WRF, NEI developers
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