improvement on pm forecasting – anthropogenic fugitive dust (primary pm emission) –
DESCRIPTION
Improvement on PM forecasting – Anthropogenic fugitive dust (primary PM emission) – modulated by snow/ice cover. Pius Lee 1 , Jeff McQueen 2 , Ivanka Stajner 3 , Daniel Tong 1,4,5 , Jianping Huang 2 , Hyuncheol Kim 1,4 , Li Pan 1,4 , Barry Baker 1,6 , Sarah Lu 2 , - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Improvement on PM forecasting – Anthropogenic fugitive dust (primary PM emission) –
modulated by snow/ice cover
National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
Pius Lee1, Jeff McQueen2, Ivanka Stajner3, Daniel Tong1,4,5, Jianping Huang2, Hyuncheol Kim1,4, Li Pan1,4, Barry Baker1,6, Sarah Lu2 ,Jerry Gorline7, Daiwen Kang8,9,Sikchya Upadhaya3,10
1Air Resources Lab. (ARL), NOAA, NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP), College Park, MD2Environmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), NCWCP, College Park, MD
3Office of Science and Technology, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD4Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellite, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
5Center for Spatial information Science and Systems, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA6Department of Physics, University of Maryland Baltimore County, MD
7Meteorological Development Lab., NOAA, Silver Spring, MD8Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division, U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC
9Computer Science Corp., Research Triangle Park, NC10Syneren Technologies Corporation
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Networking with AQ managers and forecasters/researchers
National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
Good examples: Insights and inspiration
Anne Gobin, Burear Chief, CT DEEP: improved NAM, NAQFC
Jhih-Yuan Yu, EPA ,Taiwan: 臺中國小 1044 µg m-3
Susan Wierman, CEO, MARAMA
Natalie and Connor, San Lorenzo VH
A great thank you to the conference organizers
AIRNow
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OUTLINEImprove PM* forecast by 1st principles
NCEP plans on 3 km horizontal grid spacing for CONUS Q&A: Vertical and compositional distributions? -- intensive campaigns
Wind blown dust – primary PM emission
Anthropogenic fugitive dust
Real-time testing of modulation methodology
Summary and future work
3National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC Air Resources Laboratory
* Fann et al. Risk Analysis 2011: PM risk ≥ O3 risk
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Finer horizontal grid resolutions
PBL processesConvective & turbulent mixingLand-Sea interactionFine features: e.g. terrain, urban
Wrf-nmm
Wrf-Post & AqmPrdgen
PREMAQ
CMAQ
GRiB products & graphics
Verification
ICON
BCON
SMOKE
MOBILE6
“grid-2-obs verification and beyond”Kang et al., CMAS 2011
Emissions
Meteorology
Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
Forecasting support for DISCOVER-AQ
SJV
BW
HOU
5Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
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Comparison of Wind along flight track of P3B on July 20 2011
Spirals over Wilmington and Edgewood
Model under-predicted wind shear
More frequent calmBias in higher altitudes
Less turbulence may not matter as PBL well-mixed, shallow-convection may matter.
calm bias inPBL topventing
Investigate processes near PBL top Heat-wave 2011
6Air Resources Laboratory
National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
12-km (cut from 5X CONUS) 4-km Houston domainComparison of verification results for pm
Finer descriptions helped
TYPE OBS_Mean MOD_MEAN RMSE NME MB NMB RAll_12KM_Dmean 9.34 12.36 8.12 60.17 3.02 32.32 0.27
All_4KM_Dmean 9.34 11.36 6.42 52 2.02 21.62 0.33
Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
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June 1 –July10 2013
Science questions:
“How do anthropogenicAnd biogenic emissionsInteract and affect AQAnd climate”--- Joost de Gouw
Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
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Comparison between 12 and nested 4 km forecast for June 12 2013
Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
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Bias RMSE
“grid-2-obs verification and beyond” Kang et al., CMAS 2011Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
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Push towards higher resolution at NCEP
Expr product Targeted next date Remark
GFS T878L64 ~ 22km April 2014
GDAS T574 Enk/GSI ~ 27 km April 2014
GEFS T382L64 ~ 35 km April 2014 ~30 members
NAM 12 km North America Already in place
NAM 3 km CONUS nest July 2014
NAM On demand basis 1.3 km limited domain
Already in place
Fire weather
Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
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Versatility of selecting a limited-area domain of interest
Limited-area domain forecasts are heavily influenced by boundary conditions and their derivation is criticale.g. exo-domain wild fire emissions
~21x
~12x
5x
Agricultural burningprevails in the monthsof March and Aprilin Mexico
HMS wildfire detections during Apr. 2010
Emission should include Exo- and intra-domain wild fires
Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
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The Dust Emission Model (FENGSA) Contribution attributable to ARL in CMAQ5.0 release
Modified Owen’s Equation (source: Marticorena et al, 1997):
Effect of non-erodiable elements (Drag partition) (Marticorena et al, 1995):
Threshold Friction Velocities (u*t) (source: Gillette et al.1980, 1982,1988):
Soil typeSand(cm/s)
Loamy Sand
Sandy Loam
Silt Loam
LoamSandy Clay Loam
Silty Clay Loam
Clay Loam
Sandy Clay
Silty Clay
Clay
Desert Land 0.42 0.51 0.66 0.34 0.49 0.78 0.33 0.71 0.71 0.56 0.78
Agricultural 0.28 0.34 0.29 1.08 0.78 0.78 0.64 0.71 0.71 0.56 0.54
)])
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Effects of rain and snow (Fecan et al, 1999):
)(%*17.0)(%*0014.0'w 2 clayclay Air Resources Laboratory
Tong et al., JGR, (in review)
National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
Air Resources Laboratory 14
Windblown dust from agricultural land
Washington
--http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards
12:30 p.m, May 3,2010
Washington
National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
?Anthropogenic
Unpaved Road
Paved Road
Construction Agriculture
Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
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Fugitive Dust
Tong et al., Environ. Int. 2009)
Chemical Splitting of Fugitive Dust Dust Contribution to PM “Other”
Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
Spring
Fall
CMAQ vs. IMPROVE SW Observations (January 2002)
Air Resources Laboratory 17
Two CMAQ runs: with and without anthropogenic dust emissions; Dust contribution is calculated from the difference;
Fugitive Dust contribution < 1g/m3 Fugitive Dust contribution > 2g/m3
National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
Tong et al., Environ. Int. 2009)
18National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC Air Resources Laboratory
NAM Physics/Assimilation Upgrades : June 2014
Replace legacy GFDL radiation with RRTMModified gravity wave drag/mountain blocking
• More responsive to subgrid-scale terrain variability• Target : Improve synoptic performance w/o adversely impacting
10-m wind forecastsNew version of Betts-Miller-Janjic convection
• Moister convective profiles, convection triggers less• Target : Improve QPF bias from 12-km parent
Ferrier-Aligo microphysics• advection of rime factor
Modified treatment of snow cover/depth• Moister convective profiles, convection triggers less• Target : Improve QPF bias from 12-km parent
Reduce roughness length for 5 vegetation types• Target : Improved 10-m wind in eastern CONUS
Hybrid variational-ensemble GSI analysis
Courtesy: Eric Rogers, Environ. Modeling Center NCEP/NOAA
19National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC Air Resources Laboratory
Case Description of NAM CMAQ
Expr Current ops NAM: Hanson Radiation, simpler advection of hydrometeor, no regional/categorical modification of snow cover and roughness, respectively, less tuned gravity wave, convective schemes 3-D VAR assimilation system
As current Expr:CMAQ4.6CB05Aero4ACM2 PBLMobile6 NOx
para2 Upgrade of all of the above* As above
para3 Anthropogenic fugitive dust emission modulated by snow and ice cover fed from NAM
Binary on/off
Real-time testing for up-coming implementation: Expr 2014
*Please see details on previous slide
20National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC Air Resources Laboratory
Weather.com
Improved fidelity
21National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC Air Resources Laboratory
1st Principle approach to holistically improve PM forecast
Proactively looking into NCEP’s push for high resolution NWP:• Participate actively in field campaigns e.g. DISCOVER-AQ and SOAS• Guide vertical and speciation profiles by measurements
Proactively working with NCEP to understand NAM/GFS/NGAC changes• Feedback responsively and responsibly to strengthen EMC/ARL partnership• Integrate meteorological and chemical weather forecasting
Proactively contributing to CMAQ forum and module development• Reinforce the culture e.g., dust module (2012) & fine resolution forecasting• Complement the SIP and regulatory community with forecasting niche (e.g. D.A.)
Proactively promoting satellite products for dynamic emission modeling• Improve climatology e.g. dust source region, forest fuel loading ..• Improve methodology for dynamic adjustment: e.g. OMI NOx
Proactively seeking verification metric applicable for fine resolution forecast• Overcome the hit or miss simplistic metric• Overcome the single value criterion but open to stochastic and tendency metric
Contact: [email protected]:www.arl.noaa.gov
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Acknowledgement
James Crawford, NASA, Langley, VA.
Christopher Loughner & Ken Pickering NASA, Greenbelt, MD.
Alex Guenther, NCAR, CO.
Eric Rogers, EMC, NCEP, NOAA
22Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC
Glossary can be found under
Monthly CO emission from wildfire
23Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC