improving weather forecast office performance in the polygon warning era ken cook – soo ict...
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Improving Weather Forecast Office Performance in the
Polygon Warning EraKen Cook – SOO ICT
NOAA/National Weather Service Office2142 South Tyler Road
Wichita, KS 67209Phone: (316) 942-8483 Fax: (316) 945-9553
Email: [email protected]
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Outline
• Polygon (Storm Based) Warnings FY08
• Identify Challenges Ahead
• Demonstrate Training and Review Program (TARP) at WFO Wichita
• Software/Other Deficiencies
• Mitigations Developed from the TARP
• Results
• Recommendations/Conclusions
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Polygon-Based Tornado Warnings Improve Service
Area Warned is Appropriately Reduced
Four Four Counties Counties WarnedWarned
Polygon-Polygon-Based Based
Warning AreaWarning Area
Area Area Removed Removed
From From WarningWarning
In the current system, four full counties are warned. Polygon-Based Tornado Warnings provide much improved service.
Source – Eli Jacks, National Program Management Committee
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Challenges
• Probability of Detection (POD) for Tornadoes 15-20 percentage points less Nationwide (Polygons vs. Counties)
• Local POD of Severe Weather Events (1” Hail) about 15% points less
• No Comprehensive Training Plan available yet for implementation
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Challenges
• Lead Time Will Be Lost
– Old: 3 separate warnings
– New: One warning
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
24 April 2006
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
24 April 2006
3” Hail
City of Wichita
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
24 April 2006
• 80-100 Million Dollars in Damage In Sedgwick County
• County-Based Paradigm, Warnings Verified
• Polygon-Based Paradigm, Largest Hail Not Warned (Bulk of the Damage Area)
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Challenges
• Local (ICT) POD of Severe Weather Events (1” Hail)– January through April: 15 % Points Less– May through August: Nearly Equal
• What changed?
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Training and Review Program
• A Training and Review Program Created– Identified shortfalls– Developed methods of improvement– Software Used:
• ArcGIS 9• Paint Shop Pro 9• Microsoft Access• Presentation Software
– Datasets Used:• Storm Reports - Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) web site• Warning Polygon Shapefiles - Iowa State Mesonet web site
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Training and Review Program
• Findings– Reports that fell outside the warning polygon
were the result of• Boxology of warning (>90%)
– Majority were gaps between warning polygons
• Software limitations
Let’s Look at a Sample Review
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Software Limitations• LSR Program
– Resolution not high enough• WarnGen
– Cannot incorporate detail of CWA boundaries • Suggest working out a local agreement with local media and
adjacent WFOs– Right clicking county to include in warning results in
portions being excluded!!– Rounding of Warning Lat/Lon– Outdated/Poor Shapefile Resolution/Mapping
• EAS/NWR/etc…– Not using GPS
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Software Limitations
• LSR Program– Distance and
direction resolution was too coarse
– Result – wind report fell out of the polygon
– Persons should examine these and make corrections as needed
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Software Limitations
• Poor Shapefile Resolution; Lat/Lon Rounding– WarnGen polygon
coordinates when applied to the map background will appear slightly different
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Software Limitations• EAS/NWR
– Is this area warned or not?
– Polygon - Yes– County - No– Even though we are
shifting paradigms, public safety must be highest priority
– Re-issue warning
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Mitigations• Always be thinking ahead to the next box (1st
box very critical).
• Leave yourself plenty of room.
• Avoid right clicking to include an entire county.
• Zoom and edit vertices appropriately.
• Avoid gaps between polygons: Zoom!!!
• It is a must to have local warnings overlay loaded w/ warngen).
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Mitigations
• Slightly overlap polygons.
• For Bow echoes, replicate linear convection.
• Only adjust SVS Polygon when canceling portion of county.
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Results
• Polygonology has seen remarkable improvement at WFO ICT
• POD between the 2 paradigms within a few points
• FAR remains ~10 percentage points lower for Polygons
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Recommendations/Conclusions• Developing a local training and review program
will improve:– Transition to Polygon Warnings– Warning Meteorology and Service– Metrics (GPRA Goals)
• Utilize Mitigations to improve polygon warnings• Instructions for the ICT TARP are available upon
request or on WFO ICT’s Science and Training Page at: http://204.194.227.45/soo/Training/Polygonology/Polygonology-TARP.htm
• Change is certain, be prepared!!!• Thank you – Questions?
Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)
Resources• Cook, Kenneth (SOO – ICT), 2006: WFO Wichita Science and Training Intranet Page (
http://204.194.227.45/soo/soopage.htm)– Training Materials Also Available
• Herzmann, Daryl, 2006: Iowa State University (http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current• National Program Management Committee• SPC Storm Reports (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports)• PANDA (http://panda.crh.noaa.gov)