improving your decision-making · your decision statement clarifies what it is that you wish to...
TRANSCRIPT
Improving Your Decision-Making
by
Ralph L. KeeneyDuke University
website: http://ralphkeeney.com/
Imagine Your Life with No Decisions
Consider the familiar metaphor that a life is like walking down a path on which there are forks that represent decisions at various locations.
Now imagine your life if it hadno decisions, no forks.
Fortunately, your life will include numerous decisions.
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Your Life with Decisions
• Your life is the result of • Decisions you will make, • your previous decisions, • your actions, • the decisions and actions of other individuals and
organizations, and• happenstance.
• The only way that you can purposeful influence anything in your life is by the decisions that you make.
• Those decisions represent the power that you have to influence the quality of your life.
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How Good are We at Making Decisions?
Almost all individuals routinely fall into decision traps that lead to inferior decisions.
Over the past 50 years, psychologists, decision scientists, and behavioral economists have identified over 175 separate biases, errors, and shortcuts that regularly affect our decisions.
Examples include:• addressing the wrong decision, not clarifying objectives of the
decision, maintaining the status quo, selecting the default alternative or the easiest to implement, anchoring on first thoughts, choosing alternatives to justify earlier decisions (sunk costs), overweighting confirming evidence, and underweighting conflicting information.
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Nudging
A nudge is a mental push that helps you make a better decision.
Examples: lines in middle of highways, retirement accounts, cafeteria eating
Nudge units now exist in 200 countries and in numerous organizations, and collectively they have helped millions of individuals make some better decisions.
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The revolutionary 2008 book Nudge by Thaler and Sunstein indicates how the presentation of decisions nudges individuals to make decisions more in their own interests.
Give Yourself a Nudge
For most important decisions that you face, no government agency or organization can nudge you. So any nudging for your decisions must be done by you.
The rest of this presentation is about numerous nudges that you can use to help yourself make better decisions, and hence positively influence your quality of life.
These ideas will be in a new book, titled Give Yourself a Nudge to be appear in early 2020 by Cambridge University Press.
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How Are Decisions Typically Made?Something happens that leads you to 1. recognize a decision problem2. Identify an alternative (or maybe more than one) to
solve it3. evaluate the alternative(s) and implement one
This is Alternative-Focused Decision-Making. It isReactive We rarely exert influence over which decisions we end up facing. Nor do we deliberately conceive of decisions to face that would surely enhance our lives if we did.
Constrained We often do not spend the time and effort to create alternatives better than the first acceptable one.
Backwards For most decisions, we do not know all that we want to achieve by making that decision. Not knowing what you want to achieve, how can you thoughtfully achieve it?
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How Should Decisions be Made
Once you recognize any decision:
1. Your first thoughts should be about your values for that decision – what you want to achieve.
2. Your values then guide all else that you do regarding this decision.
This is Value-Focused Decision-Making.
A more useful and empowering approach that requires being proactive.
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Value-Focused Decision Framework
Front-End: Define the decision that you face1. State the decision that you want to face.2. Identify your values and state them as objectives.3. Create alternatives that contribute to achieving your objectives.
Back-End: Analyze or thoughtfully examine your alternatives and make your decision
1. Describe possible consequences to indicate how well each alternative achieves your objectives.
2. Evaluate alternatives by weighing the pros and cons of each.3. Select an alternative using insight from your analysis.
My presentation only concerns the front-end.
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Why the Front-End Is So Crucial• Defining your decision takes you from a vague thought
that you must do something about a problem or opportunity to a unambiguous understanding of the decision you should address
• Most decisions will not have a back-end analysis.1. Very few individuals could do such an analysis2. It is rarely worth the time and effort
• In these cases, the only contribution to a quality decision is the front-end decision structure, which nudges you to make better decisions.
• The quality of the front-end greatly enhances the insight from and the quality of any back-end modeling, analysis, and/or appraisal of the alternatives.
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Understanding Your Decision: Your Decision Frame
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Your clearly framed decision: Choose the alternative from the set of alternatives that best achieves your stated values.
AlternativeA
AlternativeB
AlternativeC
AlternativeD
Value 1Objective 1
Value 2Objective 2
Value 3Objective 3
Value 4Objective 4
Front-End
1. State the decision.
2. Identify your values.
3. Create alternatives.
Cho
ose
the
alte
rnat
ive
Decision Frame
your stated objectives
from the set of alternatives that best achieves
Six Crucial Nudges
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I am going to discuss six key components of good decision-making, with practical procedures to implement them, that you can use to make significant improvements to your decision-making.
1. defining the decision you face2. stating the objectives you want to achieve3. creating alternatives4. identifying decision opportunities5. constructing alternatives acceptable to an
authorized decision-maker6. developing strategic objectives to guide your life.
1. The decision statement
• Your decision statement should clearly and concisely state the decision you want to address.
• Its purpose is to provide guidance for identifying your values for the decision and an appropriate set of alternatives to consider.
• These define your decision frame, which then replaces your decision statement.
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Composing Your Decision Statement
Develop a statement of your decision that is clear and concise.
Begin any decision statement with the decide typically followed by which, what, when, whether, how or if.
Your decision statement clarifies what it is that you wish to decide. The ‘what it is’ specifies either the values you hope to achieve or the alternatives you want to consider. Respective examples are ‘decide how can I have more enjoyable weekends’ and ‘decide which new pair of skis should I buy’. Then, make sure that it summarizes the decision that you want to make.
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Poor Decision Statements
• Decide what to do because my job isn’t interesting.vague: improve current job, transfer within your organization, get a new job?
• Decide whether to visit Mexico on my vacation this next summer. unclear: what would you otherwise do?
• Decide whether or not to visit your grandmother next weekend. versus decide when to visit your
grandmother the next four months; you may never go with sequential decisions
• Decide whether to exercise today. versus policy decision to decide whether to exercise regularly. Then rarely make the daily decision.
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• Whenever you face a decision, your first thought should be ‘what are my values for this decision’.
• A value is anything that you care about achieving in making a decision. It can be stated in any convenient form; just articulating each value is the key.
• Your values should guide your decision-making.
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If you don’t know what you want to achieve by making a decision, how could you possibly make a good decision?
2. Identifying and Organizing Your Values2. Identifying and Organizing Your Values
Where Do Values Come From?
From the minds of decision makersbased on thoughts and feelings
Key Questions
• Can individuals list their values for a decision?
• Can they do this well?
The answer to both questions is “often not”.
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Step 1: DMs generate as many relevant objectives as they can.
Step1a: DMs try harder
Objectives List§ DM Objective A§ DM Objective B§ DM Objective C§ DM Objective D§ ….§ ….§ ….
Step 2: DMs see the master list and check all objectives that are relevant.
Master Listþ Objective
þ Objective
¨ Objectiveþ Objective
¨ Objective
¨ Objective
þ Objective
¨ Objectiveþ Objective
¨ Objective
¨ Objective
þ Objective¨ Objective
þ Objective
¨ Objective
Step 3: DMs map objectives from Step 1 to the master list. Checked items that map back are self-generatedobjectives; all others are recognized.
Master Listþ Objective
þ Objective D
¨ Objectiveþ Objective
¨ Objective
¨ Objective
þ Objective B
¨ Objectiveþ Objective
¨ Objective
¨ Objective
þ Objective A¨ Objective
þ Objective
¨ Objective
DM Objective C
_____________
__________________________
Step 4: DMs rate the importance of all checked objectives.
Master Listþ Objective
þ Objective D
¨ Objectiveþ Objective
¨ Objective
¨ Objective
þ Objective B
¨ Objectiveþ Objective
¨ Objective
¨ Objective
þ Objective A¨ Objective
þ Objective
¨ Objective
DM Objective C
_____________
__________________________
1
2
3
4
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Experiment: Creating MBA Internship Objectives
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Master List of Summer MBA Internship Values
Is at a well recognized / respected companyAllows me to meet interesting peopleIs with an organization that I am passionate
aboutUses skills I have learned in my first year of B-
schoolImproves my attractiveness for full-time job
offersMakes me more savvy about office politicsAllows me to experience a new geographical
areaGain experience leading team projectsHelps me improve my analytical skillsIs in near family or friendsIs enjoyable to doEnhances my knowledge in a particular industryCould lead to a full time offer from that firmCompensates me wellProvides information to help select a job after
graduationEnhances my resumeHelps me develop my leadership skillsHelps me improve my communication skills
I would like to choose an internship that...
Provides flexibility for personal interests during the summerGives me a substantial project of which I can feel ownershipProvides opportunities to interact with senior managersIs with a company whose culture I identify withGives me pride from landing a prestigious internshipProvides a structured program for learning and trainingIs professionally challengingLet me work with a diverse group of peopleOffers the chance to learn new skillsHelps me decide what courses and skills I need to develop next yearIs at a company that sponsors work visas for placement in US officesHelps me make good networking contactsIs a job that I would like to do full-time after graduationHelps me decide whether the internship field is good for me long-term
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Average Number Importance
of Values Created of Values
Original list 6.4 7.28 average
Then think more/work harder
Review/add as appropriate 0.5
Research shows …, think
• Add any you think of 2.8
• Add at least 3 3.1
• Add at least 6 3.9
• Add at least 9 4.9
• Use categories: 3.6
Tangible Benefits, Intangible Benefits,
Develop Professional Skills, Enhance
Attractiveness to Potential Employers
Checked Objectives 20.1
7.23
average
Summary of MBA Internship Experiment Results
Summary of Experimental Results
For real decision problems:• Individuals often identify less than
half of their values• They miss values roughly
as important as those identified
The implication: It is important to dedicate serious effort to help decision makers specifytheir values
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Identifying Values Requires Focused Thought
Some world-renowned individuals have recognized that identifying all of your values for a decision is extremely difficult.
• Benjamin Franklin said that important decisions “are difficult, chiefly because while we have them under consideration, all the reasons pro and con are not present in the mind at the same time, but sometimes some set present themselves, and at other times another, the first being out of sight”.
Ø Franklin’s pros and cons refer to values.
• Friedrich Nietzsche said “forgetting our objectives is the most frequent stupidity in which we indulge ourselves”.
Ø Nietzsche’s objectives are values.
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A Process to Help Identify Your Values
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Step 1 Create a wish list. Include every value you hope to achieve in the decision situation.
Step 2 Stimulate additional values by using mind-probing techniques.
Step 3
Step 4
Ask others for suggested values. Their suggestions may be one of your values or stimulate you to think of others.Use previously identified values to identify additional values
Step 2: Stimulate Values Using Mind-Probing Techniques
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Technique Questions
Emotions and Feelings
Articulate your emotions and feelings evoked by the decision situation. Ask yourself why you care about these and how your alternatives may address them.
Alternatives Identify a perfect alternative, a terrible alternative, some reasonable alternatives, the status quo. What is good or bad about each?
Consequences Think about what might occur after you make your decision. What might occur that is good or bad?
Goals and Constraints
Review any goals and constraints you have. What are your reasons for setting these?
Different Perspectives
Suppose a friend or a competitor you know faced your decision. What might their values be? If you faced this decision at some time in the future, what would concern you?
Strategic Values Consider the strategic values for guiding your life or your organization that are relevant to the decision? Are any of these values, or aspects of them, relevant to this decision?
Disappointment and Regret
After you have experienced the consequences of your decision, what might disappoint you and what might you regret?
Generic Values What values have you had for the same or similar decisions that you have faced? Are these relevant now?
Step 4: Using Recognized Values to Search for Missed Values
For each recognized value, ask yourself:
a. Why do I care about this value?b. How can you best achieve this value?c. What does this value mean?d. What is the general category of this value?
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Clarifying Values
• Once you have a list of values for a decision, it is useful to state them in the common format.
• An objective is a value stated in a verb-object format that also clarifies the meaning of the value, for example: • ‘money’ becomes ‘maximize my salary’ or ‘maximize profits’ or
‘minimize cost’• ‘dirty lake’ becomes ‘reduce pollutant inflow’ or ‘restore habitat’
or both• ‘successful’ becomes ‘increase my skills’, ‘be promoted’, or ‘be
respected by peers’
Suppose someone you know has been diagnosed with cancer. What would be a good set of values to guide the creation and appraisal of alternatives? Think of some potential values.
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Objectives for Cancer Treatment
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• Get all the cancer• Avoid a recurrence of cancer• Ensure that the cancer doesn’t
spread• Minimize medical risks of
treatment• Minimize medical risks of cancer• Reduce the likelihood of death in
the near future• Reduce the likelihood of serious
complications• Minimize personal costs of the
entire procedure• Have insurance pay the
maximum possible• Limit any pain and suffering
• Minimize inconvenience to self• Have a comfortable hospital room• Avoid worry about treatment• Have trust in doctors• Minimize inconvenience to family• Receive good communication• Have the best physicians• Receive quality healthcare• Limit time in hospital• Minimize limits on activities after
recuperation• Receive friendly service at the
hospital• Provide future financial security
for family• Have the treatment soon
It is difficult to make sense and gain insight from such along and multifaceted list of objectives
Organizing Your Values
Stating your values as objectives helps to understand their relationships and to facilitate their use.
Relationships between objectives• Means Objective: an objective whose importance
stems from its influence on achieving another objective, referred to as an ends objective.
• Fundamental Objective: an objective that defines a basic reason for caring about a decision.
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Means and Fundamental Objectives for Cancer Treatment
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Means Objectives
Get all the cancerAvoid a recurrence of cancerAssure that the cancer doesn’t spreadMinimize medical risks of treatmentMinimize medical risks of cancerReceive friendly service at the hospitalReduce the likelihood of serious complicationsHave insurance pay the maximum possibleHave a comfortable hospital roomHave trust in doctorsReceive good communicationHave the best physiciansReceive quality healthcareHave the treatment soon
Fundamental Objectives
Minimize the likelihood ofdeath in the near future
Minimize personal costs of the entire procedure
Limit any pain and sufferingAvoid worry about treatmentMinimize inconvenience to
selfMinimize inconvenience to
familyMinimize limits on activities
after recuperationProvide future financial
security for familyLimit time in hospital
Uses of Means and Fundamental Objectives
• Only fundamental objectives should be used to evaluate and compare alternatives.
• Means objectives can be used to create alternatives.
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3. Creating Alternatives
• Alternatives are the potential choices for pursuing your objectives.1. Alternatives must be completely under the control
of the decision maker2. Alternatives are defined such that only one
alternative is chosen for a specific decision. This is not a limitation.
• Two important facts about alternatives:• You can never choose an alternative that you
haven’t identified• Your chosen alternative can be no better than the
best of those that you have identified
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Pitfalls when Creating Alternatives
• Stopping your search after one alternative is identified
• Thinking too narrowly (e.g. Business as usual) • Inappropriate constraints • Focusing on alternatives presented by others• Incrementalizing existing alternatives• No (or little) time spent creating alternatives• Lack of guidance for creating good alternatives
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Conventional Advice: Think Outside of the Box
The spirit of this advice is worth following.
With this reasonable advice, it is natural to think that one should not think inside of a box.
However, outside of the box is everywhere else, which is a phenomenally large space to look for anything.
You cannot look everywhere effectively or efficiently. Guidance on where to look would be useful.
33“the proverbial box” “outside the box”
The proverbial box(a too-small box)
The Alternatives Box(a right-sized box)
Outside of The box(a very large space)
My Advice: Think Inside the Right-Sized Box You need to think “outside of the box”, but not “outside of abox”. You should think inside a bigger ‘right-sized’ box.
The size of this right-sized Alternatives Box is defined by your objectives.
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How Should You Create Alternatives Inside the Alternatives Box?
• Since alternatives are the means to achieve the objectives …
• Thinking about ‘how to better achieve each objective’ can suggest alternatives or elements of alternatives that will contribute to achieving your objectives
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Creating Alternatives to Enhance One’s MBA Internship
What alternatives could you initiate prior to and/or during your MBA internship that would enhance meeting your objectives?
When Asked Average Number CreatedBefore listing objectives 5.5After listing – using objectives +3.9After, focus separately on each objective +5.7
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Some Alternatives Created to Enhance An MBA Internship
• Interact proactively with senior management• Seek out mentors• Be proactive in taking responsibility• Talk to previous interns at the company• Create a list of people to meet and make
appointments• Network extensively during internship• Review courses/concepts from first year• Research the company and industry• Prioritize what I want to learn from internship• Choose useful elective courses
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Create alternatives using your objectives. First identify alternatives to achieve each objective.
Second, use pairs of objectives, and then larger sets of objectives.Third, enhance alternatives that you have already created. Initially, work alone to create alternatives, so you do not anchor on suggestions made by others.
Fourth, have friends and other knowledgeable individuals suggest alternatives or enhancements.
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Practical Guidance for Creating Alternatives
4. Decision Opportunities
• It seems odd that the words decision and problem are so intertwined in everyday use. We say ‘I have a decision problem’.
• Yet our decisions are the only purposeful way to influence anything. Our decisions are the opportunities to guide our lives, hopefully for the better, and to positively influence the well-being of others, our communities, our countries, and our planet.
Ø So are decisionsreally problems?
Most of our currentdecisions are!
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How Do Your Decision Problems Occur?
• Your decision problems are caused by the decisions of others, happenstance, actions that you take without thinking, and bad consequences of your decisions (from good decisions or poor decisions).
• Respective examples are when your employer eliminates your job, you contract a serious illness, or a fire damages your home.
• Each of these situations presents you with a decision problem and it is definitely a problem.
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Your Decision-Making
• Who should make your decisions?Ø You should!
• Who should choose the decisions that you face?Ø You should, at least more than you do.
• Making decisions on problems that you must face is reactive.
• Making decisions on ‘problems’(i.e. opportunities) that you choose to face is proactive.
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Creating Decision Opportunities
• You have the power to create some of the decisions you will face. I refer to these as decision opportunities.
• Decision opportunities are more attractive decisions than the decision problems that you must face.
• You can create decision opportunities by• converting decision problems into decision opportunities by
creating a broader set of objectives and/or more appealing alternatives.
• proactively creating decision opportunities that offer you the possibility to achieve very desirable consequences.
• Value-focused thinking helps you be systematic about creating decision opportunities.
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Reactive versus Proactive Decision-Making for Health Decisions
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today
You feel ill
You visitdoctor
You getdiagnosis
You arewell again
Alternatives:see doctor
or not
Alternatives:test A, B,
or C
Alternatives:treatmentX, Y, or Z time
Your decision problem
Another decision problem
Maybe you won’t be sick; if sick, maybe it is less severe so you don’t visit a doctor; and/or you may recover sooner
Doctor’s decision problem
Reactively Solving Decision Problems
Life goes on. Life goes on.
today
You feel ill
You visitdoctor
You getdiagnosis
You arewell again
Alternatives:see doctor
or not
Alternatives:test A, B,
or C
Alternatives:treatmentX, Y, or Z time
Proactive Pursuing Decision Opportunities
Life goes on. You pursue health decision opportunities.
Life goes on. You pursue health decision opportunities.
Reactive versus Proactive Decision-Making for Employment Decisions
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today
You lose your job
You applyfor jobs
You choosea job
You areworking again
Alternatives:employment possibilities
Alternatives:hire or not
Alternatives:select among
offers
time
Your decision problem
Your decision problem
Maybe you won’t lose your job; if so, you have better skills and better references and thus obtain a better job sooner
Employer’s decision problem
Reactively Solving Decision Problems
Life goes on. Life goes on.
today
You may loseyour job
You applyfor jobs
You chooseA job
You areworking again
Alternatives:employment possibilities
Alternatives:hire or not
Alternatives:treatmentX, Y, or Z
time
Proactive Pursuing Decision Opportunities
Life goes on. You pursue decision opportunities toimprove work skills.
Life goes on. You pursue decision opportunities to improve work skills.
today one weeklater
some timelater
qualityof life
qualityof lifetoday
today one weeklater
some timelater
qualityof life
qualityof lifetoday
alternativeimplemented
decisionproblemoccurs
solving a decision problemrestores your quality of lifeto near the previous level
decisionopportunity
occurs
alternativeimplemented
pursuing a decision opportunityincreases your quality of life
above its previous level
A Decision OpportunityA Decision Problem
The consequences of implementingan alternative to address a decisionopportunity will generally be in thisshaded areaThe consequences of implementing
an alternative to address a decisionproblem will generally be in thisshaded area
Decision problems usually do not improve your life
Decision opportunities usually do improve your life
A Key Distinction between Decision Problemsand Decision Opportunities
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Why Don’t Decision-Makers Routinely Create Decision Opportunities?
Two main hindrances to creating decision opportunities:
• We don’t have a distinct concept or name for what I’m calling a decision opportunity, so we not routinely think about utilizing this idea.
• We think of decisions as problems,we have enough problems already,
we don’t like problems,so why should we create any for ourselves?
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Stimulate the Creation of Decision OpportunitiesInitial Thought Decision opportunity: Decide
My life is less interesting than desired
Experiencing Z would be great
I admire people who have skill S
I’d like to do X, but I can’t because …
Something is bothering me
how to meet more interesting people
to experience Z
to develop skill S
to eliminate the reason why I can’t do X
to eliminate the bother
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Do not accept a decision problem as presented; consider changing it into a decision opportunity, that is a better decision to face.
Before implementing an alternative, declare a decision opportunity, namely how can I improve my chosen alternative?
5. Decisions Requiring Authorization
The situation: another individual - an authorized decision-maker - controls whether an alternative that you want can be implemented.
• You and an authorized decision-maker both recognize your joint authority to implement alternatives that you each pursue
• Only you recognize that an authorized decision-maker shares the joint authority to implement an alternative that you jointly pursue
• Only you recognize that an authorized decision-maker can allow you to implement an alternative that affects only you
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(a silent negotiation, co-authoring an article)
(a standard negotiation, buying - selling a house)
(a silent negotiation, working remotely)
An Offer that Cannot Be Refused
For a decision opportunity, you create a ‘dream’ alternative, but you need someone’s (e.g. boss, friend, parent, teacher, colleague) authorization to implement it. At this time, the authorized decision-maker is unaware of your thoughts.
Identify: the values of the authorized decision-maker for the alternative that you want.
Create: an alternative that provides what you want and also is better than the status quo of the authorized decision-maker.
Act: propose that win-win alternativeto the authorized decision-maker, which should be an alternativethat can’t be refused.
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An Alternative that Can’t Be Refused
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Value to You
Value toAuthorizedDecision MakerStatus Quo
DreamAlternative
Contenders for the proposed alternative that cannot be refused
BC
D
E
� Co-authoring a book � Leave of absence
Identifying Values of an Authorized Decision-Maker
There are four possibilities for articulating the values of a specific authorize decision-maker:
• You know the authorized decision-maker and articulate their values.• You know the authorized decision-maker and ask them about their
values. It’s in their interest to indicate their values. • You ask someone else, who knows the authorized decision-maker
well, about their values.• Use your general knowledge and common sense about likely values
of the authorized decision-maker. Also, their values may have been documented.
Practical note: you only need to know some of the authorized decision-maker’s values to create an alternative that is better for them than their status quo.
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Creating Desirable Alternatives for the Authorizing Decision-Maker
• Assume that there are such alternatives; the authorizing decision-maker has a multitude of values.
• For jointly implemented decisions, modify the dream alternative to reduce negative consequences or increase positive consequences.
• For separately implemented decisions, identify an alternative in a different setting that has sufficient positive value for the authorizing decision-maker to accept the two decisions together.
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6. Developing Your Strategic Life Objectives
Your strategic values, stated as your strategic life objectives, describe who you want to be and guide your decisions to become that person.
(same as strategic values for an organization)53
A Comment on Life and Life Objectives
“I always knew I wanted tobe somebody, but perhapsI should have been morespecific.”
– Lily Tomlin
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Constructing Your Life Objectives
• Your overall life value should be to “maximize your quality of life”.
You need to define your quality of life:• Identify your life values (what you care about)
• Hard thinking over time• Expand to be complete
• Organize your values• Convert values to objectives• Relate means and ends objectives• Identify components of major objectives• Identify strategic life objectives
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Stimulating Thoughts to Identify Your Life Values
Each of these can suggest life values
• Consider activities (e.g. work and leisure) that you have spent a significant time doing that you like or dislike.
• Reflect on both very good and very bad decisions that you have made.
• Identify very good and very bad consequences that did or could have happened to you.
• Imagine your concerns at different ages in the future; think hard about your life values you may have then.
• Inquire about perspectives of your family and friends.
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Understanding Your Reasoning for Each Value
• State values as objectives (i.e. verb-object format).
• Ask yourself why you care about each objective.
• Then ask why for the response, and for its response. Push yourself to better understand what it is that you want out of life.
• Consider whether to modify or expand any objective to clarify its meaning.
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Organize Your Life Objectives
• Cluster objectives. Combine objectives into groups concerned with a similar focus. Clarify major objectives with components.
• Identify relationships of objectives. Specify inclusion and means-ends relationships.
• Select your strategic life objectives. Your strategic life objectives are the fundamental objectives of your life. They essentially define what you ultimately want to achieve in your life.
• Strategic life objectives should be stable. Otherwise, they are not life objectives.
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Means Life ObjectivesMake Good Decisions
Pursue worthwhile activities
Pursue worthwhile relationships
Maximize freedom of choice
Maximize opportunities for choice
Minimize constraints on freedom of choice• Maximize health• Maximize financial well-being• Maximize available time
Minimize constraints on opportunities for choice• Maximize creative thought• Minimize constraints due to others
Have Enriching Experiences
Strategic Life ObjectivesMaximize my quality-of-life
• Enjoy lifeHave funHave excitementRevel in emotionsRelish experiences
• Be intellectually fulfilledLearnKnowUnderstandReason
• Enhance the lives of family and friends
Wife Janet and Son GregOther family and friends
• Contribute to societyMy employerOrganizations to which I belongMy professional fieldMy communityIndividuals
influences
Maximize health
Maximize financialwell-being
Maximize availabletime
Maximize creative thought
Minimize constraintsdue to others
Maximize freedom of choice
Pursue worthwhileactivities
Maximize opportunities
for choice
Pursue worthwhile
relationships
My Strategic Life Objectives Network
Enjoy life
Be intellectually fulfilled
Enhance the lives offamily and friends
Contribute tosociety
Strategic Objectives:Maximize my quality-of-life
Minimize constraintson freedom of choice
Minimize constraintson opportunities
for choice
Note: an arrow means “influences”
Make gooddecisions
Haveenriching
experiences
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Pursuing your Life Objectives
• With a clear understanding of what you hope to achieve in life, you have a better chance of achieving it.
• The logic is simple. If you do not know what you want to achieve, you are less likely to think of ways to achieve it, less likely to pursue it, and so less likely to achieve it.
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“If you don’t know where you are going, you just might end up somewhere else.” Yogi Berra
Your Life Objectives Guide Your LifeYour strategic life objectives help coordinate all of your
decisions toward enhancing your quality of life.
• Your life values are like a car navigation system.
• A car navigation system provides guidance for any travel. Your life values provide guidance for your life travels (i.e. decisions). Many vehicle trips are familiar, so you don’t use your navigation system explicitly, but your travel is consistent with its suggestions.
• Many of your decisions are also familiar, so you do not need to explicitly use your life objectives. They are internalized and naturally used to guide your decisions.
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Becoming a Value-Focused Decision Maker
Being a value-focused decision maker requires mastering a set of skills. This requires that you:
• Learn what the concepts are and their the usefulness,
• Learn how to use those concepts on decisions.
• Practice using these skills.
Notice that this is analogous to what is necessary to become competent at any other skills, such as any sport, playing a musical instrument, being a good parent, or cooking. You can learn how to be skillful by reading, but you will not be skillful without significant practice.
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Last Thoughts
Being a proactive value-focused nudging decisionmaker is conceptually easy, but requires some thoughtful effort.
Most of us have years of experience and a life-long habit of being a reactive alternative-focused decision maker.
It is hard to break such an engrained habit, but I hope that you recognize the usefulness of value-focused nudges and, therefore, of the effort necessary to develop your skill at using it.
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Improving Your Decision-Making
by
Ralph L. KeeneyDuke University
website: http://ralphkeeney.com/
Thank You
Steps of Value-Focused Brainstorming
When a group is creating alternatives
1. State the decision to be solved.2. Identify the values of the decision.3. Individually generate alternatives.4. Collectively generate alternatives.
Avoids the shortcomings of traditional brainstorming;
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Value-Focused Brainstorming:Emergency Evacuation of Large Buildings
• In the 2001 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center, 2,602 individuals lost their lives. Many fewer would have died had they been able to evacuate the buildings.
• A federal investigation recommended developing much better emergency egress systems.
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A Value-Focused Brainstorming Workshop
Purpose: to identify new, creative, and useful ways for emergency evacuation from buildings. The need could be due to fires, natural disasters, or human-caused problems including terrorist attacks.
Response: A 2.5 day invitation-only workshop sponsored by the National Institute of Standards and Technology and the National Institute of Building Sciences
Participants: Approximately 35 experts with expertise about architecture, fire safety, legal issues, standards and codes, people with disabilities, emerging technologies for egress, and human behavior.
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Results of the WorkshopOn day 1, objectives were elicited from all participants.
That evening, facilitators constructed a means-ends objectives network to provide a basis for creating new alternatives.
On day 2, participants use the objectives to create alternatives working individually at first and then in small groups.
That evening, facilitators identified about 400 alternatives or elements of alternative that could facilitate evacuation from large buildings. These were categorized into several types of alternatives to facilitate understanding, communication, and use.
The collections of alternatives and of objectives should provide a sound basis for further fruitful thinking about emergency evaluation and its consequences.
Means-Ends Objectives Network for Emergency Evacuation
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Enhancesafety
Fundamental ObjectivesSave lives
-occupants-responders
Prevent injuries-occupants-responders
Minimize economic costsMinimize property damageMin. impact on property operationsReduce stressReduce grief to relatives and friends
Enhancecommunication
Isolatefire
Enhancedetection
Provide easyegress procedures
Facilitateresponder
access
Improve educationand training
Minimize response
time
Min. evacuationtime
Make peoplefeel safeMaximize situation
awareness
Improve knowledgeabout system “ ” means “influences”
Some Alternatives Suggested to Improve Emergency Evacuation
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Involving CommunicationUse technology such as cell phones, PDA’s, computers, phones for timely communicationUniversal emergency ringtoneInvolving Information SystemsDynamic reactive signageInvolving Pre-event PlanningPresent occupants with actual simulation/videos of what could happen in a real eventInvolving Efficient Use of Egress SystemEnhanced stairway descent devicesTo Enhance Stairwell Evacuation / Reduce Stairwell LoadUse electroluminescent strips in hotelsImpacting the Design Process / Risk Informed Performance-Based DesignPerform analysis to evaluate emergency proceduresThat Enhance Reliability of Building SystemsTwo remote sources for sprinkler waterThat Involve Event Procedural ChangesStairs to refuge floors, elevators from thereThat Enhance Event DetectionUse thermal imaging systems for detection
Involving Sprinklers / Active Suppression SystemsIncrease sprinkler density with building heightInvolving Protect in Place / Areas of RefugeZoned floors to create “safe” areas for people awaiting evacuationInvolving Building Construction ChangesReduce fuel loads in buildings Involving Building Material ChangesHardened evacuation routesInvolving the Fire ServiceEquipment lift for fire fightersDedicated firefighting stairwellStairwell mini-door for firefighting hosesInvolving ElevatorsProtected elevators for evacuation of transitional refuge areasInvolving Societal /Regulatory / Legal ChangesDon’t build high buildingsMake occupants more fitExternal to the BuildingChutes / slides / controlled descent devicesHorizontal egress or skybridge
Note that understanding the decision context is important for developing alternatives.