Germany takes an early shower "Some people believe football is a matter of life and death… I can assure you it is much, much more important than that." – Bill Shankly

The latest European summit has (so far) been greeted, like so many others, by a classic ‘beta bounce’ in the markets. We are sceptical that this bounce will continue through the summer: the euro’s existential crisis has not suddenly gone away – as we’ve noted here often, the necessary integration and reform will take years, not days – and there are many practical uncertainties still to be resolved even around the measures just announced. That said, the Commission’s statement in particular is admirably direct and brief, and does at least confirm that euro area politicians increasingly ‘get it’. A ‘muddle through’ is still likely.

There are (so far) two components to the summit news: a palliative economic initiative involving the European Investment Bank, and (more importantly) a package of financial proposals from the Commission aimed at stabilising the euro area markets and banking systems. Both hint at some modest compromise by Germany.

The economic initiative involves a small capital increase for the EIB that, when levered and accompanied by structural funds, could reportedly result in €120bn (roughly 1% of area GDP) of infrastructure projects in the next year or two. This is hardly transformative, but may at least offer some modest cyclical and political support to the weaker economies.

The Commission’s package has three important elements. First, it tasks the politicians with considering quickly proposals for a “single supervisory system” for euro area banks, which will allow future banking crises to be quickly dealt with centrally, breaking the “vicious circle” between banks and sovereigns. Second, it makes it clear that the Spanish banks in particular will be recapitalised by the EFSF (the short-term rescue fund) and eventually the ESM, and that this will occur without the rescue funds gaining seniority to other lenders (note: the statement also refers to Ireland being viewed favourably by the Eurogroup, the only other country mentioned by name). Thirdly, it affirms that EFSF and ESM funds will be used to “stabilise markets for Member States”, with the ECB acting as agent.

We see this as the beginning of the “circling of the wagons” around the systemically important banks and markets that we’ve been expecting. As noted, there are still many unresolved issues that could cause further volatility – tellingly, Greece has not featured in the commentary and communiqués as we write – but progress is slowly being made, albeit no doubt in a two-steps-forward-one-step-back fashion. Our Tactical Allocation Committee’s recent caution on risk assets is focused near-term, over the next 3-6 months: strategically, we expect neither the euro nor the global economy to meet with disaster, and still see equities as offering the best long-term risk-adjusted returns.

Meanwhile, the most important economic news we’ve seen this week has been further evidence that the US housing market is indeed continuing to stabilise (a key support for our positive Investment Idea on the US banks – aimed at more risk-tolerant investors only).

The July issue of Compass will be published next Friday: In Focus will be back on 13 July

Kevin Gardiner, Head of Investment Strategy EMEA

Inside Investment Ideas: Our strong convictions Equities: Second quarter earnings previewed Fixed income: Summit offers peripheral support; global I-L preferred to UK Commodities and foreign exchange commentaries will be back in July

Our views at a glance End of the beginning for the euro – ECB et al to backstop until fiscal integration arrives No double-dip in the US – consumers in better health than many realise Stay diversified via a balanced portfolio containing both risk and safe haven assets Corporate securities offer more long-term risk-adjusted value than government bonds Developed markets have lowest medium-term expectations and most room for positive surprises Dollar collapse unlikely not least because no comparable reserve currencies exist

29 June 2012 In Focus Markets as we see them

For EMEA Distribution Only

Our strongly-held risk-adjusted Investment Ideas for EMEA investors*

The Ideas should be viewed in the context of Barclays Wealth and Investment Management’s wider Investment Philosophy, which emphasises the importance of investors’ differing financial personalities and circumstances, and of portfolio diversification. These, together with the rest of our views, are summarised and discussed in the relevant pages below and online. More detail on each Investment Idea is available as a separate note.

Idea Inception Envisaged time horizon

Rationale Performance gauge/benchmark

Exit strategy and stop loss/take profit guide

Cross asset

Developed equities to outperform bonds by more than enough to compensate for risk

13 Jan 2012 Multi-year Current relative valuations imply a lasting decline in corporate profitability and continuing negligible real interest rates

MSCI Developed World equity index relative to the BarCap Global Treasury 7-10-yr bond index, net of a developed market equity risk premium of 4.5% per annum

Exit if global recession, banking crisis or sharply higher corporate taxes loom, or if valuations reverse. Stop loss at 15%

Equities

Buy Euro STOXX 50 dividend futures

17 Feb 2011 2 years Dividend futures for the Euro STOXX 50 imply a material fall in aggregate dividends, but we expect them to remain largely intact

Focus on 2013 contract. Dividend futures are more volatile than cash equities: compare with LIBOR plus a higher risk premium of 5.5% per annum

Exit if the ability of the euro area corporate sector to pay dividends is materially threatened. Stop loss at 15%, take profit at 30%

Blue Chips 6 Jan 2012 Multi-year A basket of liquid and solvent US and European companies with competitive franchises offers a good risk/reward mix at current prices

Compare basket performance against LIBOR plus a developed equity risk premium of 4.5% per annum

Exit if macro picture changes as above, if a new sector fad emerges, or valuations exceed trend. Stop loss at 15%

Gaining Exposure to Income stocks

6 Jan 2012 2 years With interest rates low, equities carrying high (and sustainable) dividends can be attractive to income-seeking investors familiar with equity risk

Compare basket performance against LIBOR plus a developed equity risk premium of 4.5% per annum

Exit if macro picture changes as above, or if the ability to pay dividends is threatened. Stop loss at 15%

Buy US Banks 4 May 2012 12 months The effects of the US economic recovery on the US banking sector are potentially being underestimated judging by current valuations in the sector

Compare basket performance against LIBOR plus a higher risk premium of 6.75% per annum to account for the higher Beta sector

Exit if the US Financials sector falls 15% in absolute terms

Fixed income & hybrids

Own a convertibles fund

2 Mar 2011 2 years A hybrid investment for low composure investors who see some growth in stock markets but are wary of full equity risk

LIBOR plus 200bps per annum as a compensation for risk

Exit if the Barclays Capital US Convertible index return falls below 5% or exceeds 10% per year and/or beta falls below 60%

Own a defensive investment grade credit portfolio

6 Jan 2012 2 years For low composure investors looking for medium-term income without much added risk

LIBOR plus 25bps per annum as a compensation for risk

Exit if a significant recession looms, or if spreads narrow to extreme levels. Stop loss at 5%.

Buy a basket of oversold European Financials

08 Jun 2012 2 years High risk, high composure investors can benefit from the sell off in European financials

LIBOR plus 500bps per annum as a compensation for risk

Exit if stability of banks is threatened by European crisis. Stop loss at 7%, take profits if annual return exceeds 15%

Foreign exchange

Buy basket of selected EM Asian currencies

4 Jan 2010 Multi-year Ongoing renminbi appreciation and positive growth differentials should support EM Asia currencies as risk appetite stabilises

LIBOR plus 150bps as a compensation for risk

Exit if China faces hard landing and/or further sharp decline in risk appetite looms. Stop loss 10%

Buy euro against Swiss franc: an asymmetric risk

3 Feb 2012 6-12 months For risk aware investors: we believe that the SNB will succeed in maintaining the euro’s 1.200 floor vs the franc

LIBOR plus 135bps as a compensation for risk

We strongly advise a stop loss at EUR/CHF 1.199, and would take profits at 1.240-1.250

Commodities

Gain exposure to long-dated Brent crude futures

16 Mar 2012 Multi-year Ongoing tightness in the supply-demand market balance and geopolitical risks will likely underpin prices in the long term

LIBOR plus 4.5% per annum as a compensation for risk

Exit if the global economy re-enters a recession, or if the futures price reaches $135. Stop loss at 20%

Overall performance to be reported quarterly in a separate note. Unless otherwise stated, Ideas are intended for investors with a moderate risk appetite

Jim Davies +44 (0) 203 555 8397 Ryan Gregory +44 (0) 203 555 8403 William Hobbs +44 (0) 203 555 8415 Jim.davies@barclays.com ryan.j.gregory@barclays.com william.hobbs@barclays.com

Equities

3

Q2 earnings season starts on 9th July

Expectations have understandably fallen

We think markets are more than pricing this in

Q2 Earnings Season Q2 reporting season is nearly upon us, with Alcoa (usually the first company to report) set to unofficially kick off proceedings on 9th July. The quoted corporate sector has exceeded analysts’ earnings expectations for 13 consecutive quarters and analysts will be keen to see whether this run can continue in what are difficult conditions.

The effects of weaker-than-expected global growth, as well as the uncertainty caused by the sovereign debt crisis, are likely to impact on many companies’ results. Expectations for this quarter have fallen consistently this year (Figure 1). A number of companies have reduced guidance recently and 13 consecutive quarters of earnings beats might suggest that corporate management are simply improving their control over analysts’ forecasts.

European companies have suffered the most

Earnings forecasts have been lowered on both sides of the Atlantic over the current quarter, and it is unsurprising to see that Europe ex UK has seen the largest revisions. Year-on-year Euro STOXX earnings growth forecasts for the second quarter have declined sharply from 7.0% to -2.3% over the past three months. This compares to a downward revision to S&P 500 earnings growth from 9.2% to 6.2% over the same period. US companies have fared better but below trend economic growth is still likely to have dented corporate profits.

Focus on the bigger picture

The reporting season gains a lot of attention and gives investors a good insight into corporate profitability, but quarterly profits tend to be volatile. We believe investors should instead focus on the medium term picture. Full year 2012 estimates have also fallen since the beginning of the second quarter, but not nearly as sharply (Figure 2). In the US, S&P 500 earnings are now expected to grow by 7.9% this year, only a slight slip from the 8.4%

expected at the end of March. The US economy is in relatively good health when compared to the rest of the developed world, and this should translate into superior earnings growth, one of the main reasons why the US is our most preferred equity market.

The Euro STOXX has seen a larger fall, from 9.7% to 3.3%. However, given the current state of the euro area, we would be encouraged should such growth be realised. We also remain positive on Continental European equities as we do not expect the region to plunge into the severe recession that some commentators are predicting and European companies’ exposure to global growth should help offset any domestic weakness.

Developed stocks still appear good value

Despite the earnings downgrades we remain constructive on equity markets over the next 12-18 months. Modest economic and revenue growth continues to be translated into stronger corporate earnings growth. Management efficiency has played its part, but weak labour markets have also helped to preserve margins. We believe these factors are unlikely to be quickly reversed, and corporate profitability should help drive markets higher in our view. Meanwhile, balance sheets look pretty healthy.

Developed equity market valuations appear to suggest that these earnings revisions are more than priced into the market already. The S&P 500 currently trades on an estimated 2012 P/E of under 13x, while the Euro STOXX index is below 10x, comfortably below their five year historical averages. If earnings were to disappoint, equity markets would likely still be attractively valued in our view. We see this as an attractive long-term entry point.

Our four Regional Portfolios (Global, US, Europe ex UK, and UK) provide investors with a way to gain exposure to these inexpensive markets, primarily focussing on higher quality, larger-cap companies.

Figure 1 – Q2 earnings estimates have consistently fallen Figure 2 – 2012 earnings revisions are not as dramatic

25.0

25.2

25.4

25.6

25.8

26.0

26.2

26.4

26.6

Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12

5.5

5.7

5.9

6.1

6.3

6.5

6.7

6.9

7.1

7.3

S&P 500 (lhs) Euro Stoxx (rhs)

Q2 2012 EPS (USD) Q2 2012 EPS (EUR)

104.0

104.5

105.0

105.5

106.0

106.5

107.0

Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

S&P 500 (lhs) Euro Stoxx (rhs)

2012 EPS (USD) 2012 EPS (EUR)

Source: FactSet, Barclays Source: FactSet, Barclays

4

Market valuation data as at 28th June 2012 EPS growth (%) P/E ratio (x)

MSCI indices Global Market Capitalisation

(%) 2012 2013 2012 2013 LTM 10 Year Ave.

LTM1

Developed markets 87.5 9.4 13.6 11.9 10.5 12.5 18.0 US 47.8 8.7 12.7 12.8 11.3 13.3 18.6 Europe ex UK 14.1 7.0 13.4 10.3 9.1 10.7 16.3 UK 8.3 3.3 9.9 9.9 9.1 10.1 13.2 Japan 7.9 45.4 27.0 13.1 10.3 16.1 0.5 Asia ex Japan 9.3 12.1 14.4 10.9 9.5 11.5 15.4 Emerging markets 12.5 9.5 12.5 9.9 8.8 10.4 14.1

Source: FactSet, Barclays Strategy1 LTM = Last Twelve Months, i.e. trailing

Equity Insights We have compiled lists of stocks that we believe will give clients the means to take advantage of certain identified trends in the market place. Please speak to your relationship manager for more details.

Asian Fusion We continue to like emerging market economies, in particular in Asia, where our bullish economic growth story still prevails. Developed market equities with a proportion of revenues pointing to emerging economies are one means of accessing this theme.

Energy Stocks We continue to carry a positive recommendation on the energy sector globally, seeing valuations as attractive and oil prices as well underpinned by tight supply, even in the absence of elevated tensions in the Persian Gulf, and recovering demand. We have compiled a list of stocks enabling clients to gain exposure to the sector through our preferred names.

M&A Gaining exposure to rising M&A activity has been an investment theme we have had in place since the start of the 2010. The basis for it remains unchanged. Put simply, funding is cheap and equity valuations, particularly those of developed market equities, look appealing. For clients willing to get exposure to this theme, we have assembled a list of stocks which we believe offer some potential for M&A / restructuring activity, and where this potential is not already priced in.

Pricing Power Consensus forecasts for inflation suggest mild and manageable rises in US CPI for the next couple of years, and a gradual pull back in UK CPI this year. Whilst it is not our central view, there are fears that these forecasts underestimate the effects of ongoing easy monetary policy. In terms of hedging this risk, unfortunately there is no “magic bullet” – no single investment that serves as a perfect hedge in all periods of inflation. However, one option is equities…

Weekly vs. year to date equity market returns Global sector tilts

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

MSCI EM

FTSE100

Nikkei 225

DJ Eurostoxx 50

S&P 500

MSCI dev. mrkts

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

Weekly Year to dateWeekly % return

YTD % return

Source: DataStream, Barclays Source: FactSet, Barclays

0

5

10

15

20Consumer Discretionary

Consumer Staples

Energy

Financials

Health Care

Industrials

Information Technology

Materials

Telecoms

Utilities

MSCI AC World Barclays Wealth Equity Strategy

Amie Stow +44 (0) 20 3134 2692 Fadi Zaher, PhD +44 (0) 20 3134 8949

amie.stow@barclays.com fadi.zaher@barclays.com

Fixed income

5

Refuelling: Switch from UK ILG to a global basket The UK treasury has been busy backtracking on a variety of measures it originally outlined it its May budget including the so called ‘pasty’ and caravan taxes. This week the scheduled increase in fuel duty did not suffer the same fate and get scrapped completely but it was postponed until January 2013. This would have had a slight negative impact on inflation leaving us to revise our UK inflation forecast lower.

We now expect CPI to fall to the 2% target rate in October 2012 and for this to remain stable through to the second half of 2013. Our RPI profile is also lower; we expect it to fall from its current 3.1% to 2.7% by year end. At next weeks Bank of England meeting we expect more quantitative easing which we have factored into the new profile. The lower inflation outlook leaves the door open for more easing further down the line, either in the form of asset purchases or, possibly a rate cut.

In the short term additional quantitative easing is likely to support valuations or even push corporate and government yields slightly lower. Further soft UK data and the continuing euro area debt crisis will also be a factor, anchoring yields near historic lows. However over the medium term we expect a moderate move higher in yields. This alongside a lackluster inflation outlook leads us to reaffirm our call to reduce holdings in UK index linked gilts and switch to a global inflation linked basket of bonds. Uncertainties stemming from the risk the RPI measurement could be adjusted downwards due to it coming in persistently above RPI also support this call. Year to date this strategy has performed well, and we believe the case for EM inflation over developed inflation remains strong. We advocate a global basket of inflation linked bonds as it exposes investors to different inflation and business cycles. Furthermore, it provides an option to hedge against geopolitical risks.

Figure 1 – 10-year peripheral bond yields over German bunds Figure 2 – There is a large disparity in inflation forecasts

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

03/01/2012 03/03/201 03/05/201

Italy 10Y vs Germany 10Y Spain 10Y vs Germany 10YPortugal 10Y vs Germany 10Y Greece 10Y vs Germany 10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2011 2012 2013UK Developed Emerging

CPI, %

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Source: Bloomberg, Barclays

• The EU summit seems to be on the right track

• We have revised our UK inflation forecast lower…

• … and suggest refuelling with a global inflation linked basket

EU Summit: Positive engagement Despite the German defeat to Italy in Euro 2012, the latest EU summit brought positive engagement by Chancellor Merkel to the outstanding items on the euro area agenda. The summit has, as noted above, delivered incremental progress. The road may seem unclear but the destination is known: greater political, banking and fiscal union.

The summit proposes a single bank supervisor by the end of 2012; the empowering of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to recapitalize banks directly rather than through governments; a ‘growth pact’; and perhaps most important in the short term, that bailout loans to Spain would not be granted seniority.

Going forward, the ESM is likely to pick up the bill to support banks instead of governments being intermediaries that facilitate loans for national banks. In our view, the separation of the financial institutions’ balance sheets from those of the sovereign is likely to bring more comfort to the market with the banking system less likely to be a drag on government borrowing costs. The outstanding question is whether the ESM firepower of the €500bn is likely to be enough for sovereign and banks support.

The growth pact, comprising funding to support growth in the European Union, is expected to include infrastructure financing and support of small and medium-sized businesses to address long-term issues of the euro area. Actions with instant impact are most needed for Spain and Italy in the short term.

The summit does not look likely to be a game changer, though it is not yet over and could deliver surprises later. Meanwhile, it has so far had a positive impact on sentiment – Spanish and Italian 10-year bond yields fell by 20-30bps following the announcement.

6

Figure 5 – Typical bank capital structure Figure 6 – Fixed income asset classes in focus (TAA views as of 28th May are expressed for a medium risk profile)

Low risk Senior Unsecured Debt

Lower tier 2 Convertibles, dated suboridnated debt

Upper tier 2CoCos, perpetuals (coupons are deferrable and cumulative)

High risk

Tier 1 (Core)Ordinary shares, retained earnings, reserves (coupons are deferrable and non-cumulative)

Pri

ori

ty o

f p

aym

ent

in li

qu

idat

ion

Loss

ab

sorb

ance

Cash overweight: Reduces risk in the portfolio and leaves funds available for opportunities ahead. Government bonds neutral: Valuations look expensive but they provide an additional layer insurance against rising uncertainty. Investment grade credit underweight: Year to date spreads have tightened but there are still pockets of value. For high risk profile investors we like selected European financials. For investors with lower composure, we advocate a defensive portfolio of bonds that are more immune to market volatility. High yield & emerging market bonds overweight: Returns in high yield are more likely to be from income rather than capital gain. For emerging markets we prefer local currency debt.

Source: Barclays

Source: Barclays

Fixed income market data and views Figure 3 – Yield curves in UK, US and Germany Figure 4 – Credit spreads*/indicators

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29US Germany UK

Yield, %

Data as of close 28/06/2012 Source: Barclays * Rising credit spreads tend to indicate a fall in prices

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays

**Markit provides a family of credit default swap (CDS) indices. iTraxx main 125 European IG issuers; iTraxx Snr financials 25 European senior financials; CDX IG 125 North American IG issuers; iTraxx XO 50 European HY issuers; CDX HY 100 North American HY issuers

Fixed Income Insights Switch from peripheral governments into covered bonds For investors holding Spanish and Italian government debt, we recommend switching to covered bonds which have recourse to a pool of collateral. While the yield is lower, it provides investors an additional safety net against volatility in the euro area.

Switch from UK index-linked gilts into a global inflation-linked basket UK index-linked gilts had an impressive 2011. Valuations now look expensive and we expect RPI inflation to stabilise at these levels and moderate in the fourth quarter this year. We recommend investors reduce their holdings in UK index-linked gilts and switch to a global inflation-linked basket where holders are likely to benefit from different business cycles, central bank policies and geopolitical risks.

CoCos For high composure and high risk profile investors, contingent convertibles (CoCos) provide attractive risk-adjusted yields. Recent market volatility has caused these to sell-off but we believe prices will rebound. Lloyds remains our favoured issuer in this space.

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5HP. Barclays Bank PLC activity in Portugal is supervised by Banco de Portugal (BoP) and Comissão de Mercado de Valores Mobiliários (CMVM). Qatar – Barclays Bank PLC is

registered in England and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered No. 1026167. Registered Office: 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP.

Barclays Bank PLC in the Qatar Financial Centre (Registered No. 00018) is authorised by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority. Barclays Bank PLC QFC Branch may

only undertake the regulated activities that fall within the scope of its existing QFCRA authorisation. Principal place of business in Qatar: Qatar Financial Centre, Office 1002,

10th Floor, QFC Tower, Diplomatic Area, West Bay, PO Box 15891, Doha, Qatar. This information has been distributed by Barclays Bank PLC. Related financial products or

services are only available to Business Customers as defined by the QFCRA. South Africa – Barclays offers wealth and investment management products to its clients through

Barclays Bank PLC and its subsidiaries. Absa Bank Limited t/a ABSA Private Bank. Registration number: 1986/004794/06. Authorised financial services Licence No 523 and

registered credit provider NCRCP7. Spain – Barclays Bank, S.A.U. es un banco español regulado por el Banco de España e inscrito en el registro de bancos y banqueros del

Banco de España con el nº 0065. Domicilio social: Plaza de Colón, 1 28046 Madrid. Inscrito en el R.M. Madrid, T. 3755, F.1, Hoja M62564, I. 1381. NIF: A47001946. Barclays

Bank, S.A.U. es una filial de Barclays Bank PLC, autorizado y regulado por la Autoridad de los Servicios Financieros, e inscrito en Inglaterra con el no: 1026167. Domicilio social 1

Churchill Place, London, E14 5HP. Switzerland – Barclays Bank (Suisse) SA - Switzerland. Barclays Bank (Suisse) SA is a Swiss Bank regulated and supervised by FINMA.

Registered in Switzerland. Registered No. 1381/1986. Registered Office: Chemin de Grange-Canal 18-20, P.O. Box 3941, 1211 Geneva 3, Switzerland. Registered VAT No. 288

787. Barclays Bank (Suisse) SA is a subsidiary of Barclays Bank PLC registered in England and authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered number

is 1026167 and its registered office is 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP. United Arab Emirates – Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England and authorised and regulated by

the Financial Services Authority. Registered No. 1026167. Registered Office: 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP. Barclays Bank PLC in the UAE is regulated by the Central Bank

of the U.A.E. and is licensed to conduct business activities as a branch of a foreign bank in the UAE ( Dubai Licence No.: 13/1844/2008, Registered Office: Building No. 6, Burj

Dubai Business Hub, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai City) and Abu Dhabi (Licence No.: 13/952/2008, Registered Office: Al Jazira Towers, Hamdan Street, PO Box 2734, Abu Dhabi).

United Arab Emirates (Dubai International Financial Centre) – Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England and authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

Registered No. 1026167. Registered Office: 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP. Barclays Bank PLC in the Dubai International Financial Centre (Registered No. 0060) is regulated

by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. Barclays Bank PLC DIFC Branch may only undertake the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing DFSA

licence. Principal place of business: Wealth and investment management, Dubai International Financial Centre, The Gate Village Building No. 10, Level 6, PO Box 506674, Dubai,

UAE. This information has been distributed by Barclays Bank PLC DIFC Branch. Related financial products or services are only available to Professional Clients as defined by the

DFSA. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England and authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered No. 1026167. Registered Office: 1 Churchill Place,

London E14 5HP.