in press, journal of personality and social...

Running head: STATUS-ENHANCEMENT ACCOUNT OF OVERCONFIDENCE

Astatus‐enhancementaccountofoverconfidence

CameronAnderson

UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley

SebastienBrion

UniversityofNavarra

DonA.MooreandJessicaA.Kennedy

UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley

INPRESS,JOURNALOFPERSONALITYANDSOCIALPSYCHOLOGY

AuthorNoteCameronAnderson,HaasSchoolofBusiness,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley;

SebastienBrion,IESEBusinessSchool,UniversityofNavarra;DonA.Moore,HaasSchoolof

Business,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley;JessicaA.Kennedy,HaasSchoolofBusiness,

UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley.

CorrespondenceshouldbesenttoCameronAnderson,HaasSchoolofBusiness,

UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,545StudentServicesBuilding#1900,Berkeley,CA

94720‐1900.Email:[email protected]

STATUS-ENHANCEMENT ACCOUNT OF OVERCONFIDENCE

Abstract

Inexplainingtheprevalenceoftheoverconfidentbeliefthatoneisbetterthanothers,prior

workhasfocusedonthemotivetomaintainhighself‐esteem,abettedbybiasesin

attention,memory,andcognition.Anadditionalpossibilityisthatoverconfidenceenhances

theperson’ssocialstatus.Wetestedthisstatus‐enhancingaccountofoverconfidenceinsix

studies.Studies1through3foundoverconfidenceleadstohighersocialstatusinboth

shortandlonger‐termgroups,usingnaturalisticandexperimentaldesigns.Study4applied

aBrunswikian(1956)lensanalysisandfoundthatoverconfidenceleadstoabehavioral

signaturethatmakestheindividualappearcompetenttoothers.Studies5and6measured

andexperimentallymanipulatedthedesireforstatusandfoundthatthestatusmotive

promotesoverconfidence.Together,thesestudiessuggestthatpeoplemightsooften

believetheyarebetterthanothersbecauseithelpsthemachievehighersocialstatus.

Keywords:overconfidence,self‐perception,status,power,groups,person‐perception

STATUS‐ENHANCEMENTACCOUNTOFOVERCONFIDENCE

1

AStatus‐EnhancementAccountofOverconfidence

Thepervasivenessofoverconfidenceissomewhatpuzzling.Individualsnot

onlytendtohavepositiveself‐perceptions,theyoftenbelievetheyaremore

talentedandcompetentthanothers,evenwhentheyarenot(forreviews,seeAlicke

&Govorun,2005;Dunning,Heath,&Suls,2004).Tomentionjustafewexamples,

individualstendtooverplacetheiroccupationalabilities(Haun,Zeringue,Leach,&

Foley,2000),socialskills(Swann&Gill,1997),andphysicaltalentsrelativetothose

ofothers(Dunning,Meyerowitz,&Holzberg,1989;forexceptions,seeKruger&

Burrus,2004;Moore&Small,2007).Thepropensityforoverconfidenceispuzzling

becausebeingabletoaccuratelyplaceone’sabilitiesrelativetothoseofothersis

clearlyuseful(e.g.,Alicke,1985;Dunningetal.,2004;Larrick,Burson,&Soll,2007).

Recognizingone’slimitationswouldhelppeoplesetmorerealisticgoals(Ehrlinger

&Dunning,2003),avoidcontestsonewilllose(Camerer&Lovallo,1999),andselect

strategiesthatfacilitatesuccess(Neale&Bazerman,1985),forexample.

Sowhywouldindividualsformoverlypositivejudgmentsoftheirabilities?

Scholarshavemostlyofferedtwoexplanations.Thefirstexplanationpositsa

motivatedbias:Individualsaredriventobeconfidentbecauseitprovidesthemwith

psychologicalbenefits(Dunning,Leuenberger,&Sherman,1995;Kunda,1987).For

example,self‐confidencecanimproveself‐esteem(Alicke,1985),mentalhealth

(Taylor&Brown,1988),andtaskmotivationandpersistence(Pajares,1996).The

secondexplanationhighlightsthecognitiveprocessesthatmaysometimesproduce

directionalbiases.Peoplemightsimplybeunabletoaccuratelyassesstheirown

competenceandarriveatbiasedself‐viewsfromfairlymundanejudgment


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processes.Forexample,biasedself‐viewscanarisesimplybecausepeoplearemore

likelytoattendtosuccessthanfailure(Miller&Ross,1975),becausetheymaylack

thecompetencetounderstandtheirownincompetence(Kruger&Dunning,1999),

andbecausetheymayholdidiosyncraticdefinitionsofsuccessorability(Dunninget

al.,1989;Santos‐Pinto&Sobel,2005).

Athirdpossibility,whichhasreceivedlittleempiricalattention,isthat

overconfidenceprovidestheindividualwithsocialbenefits.Anumberofscholars

havetheorizedthatbiasedself‐perceptionsmayhelptheindividualsucceedsocially

(Alexander,1987;Krebs&Denton,1997;Leary,2007;Trivers,1985;vonHippel&

Trivers,2011;Waldman,1994).Morespecifically,thesetheoriesproposethat

overlypositiveself‐viewshelpindividualsconvinceothersthattheyaremore

capablethantheyactuallyare.Therefore,thisaccountpositsoverconfidencetobea

motivatedbias.However,unlikeprevioustheories,itproposesthatoverconfidence

ismotivatedbythedesireforsocialsuccessinadditiontothedesirefor

psychologicalbenefitssuchashigherself‐esteem.

Consistentwiththisaccount,weofferandtestaseriesofhypotheses

regardingoverconfidenceandtheattainmentofsocialstatus.Specifically,we

proposethatoverconfidencepervadeshumanself‐judgmentbecauseithelps

individualsattainhighersocialstatus.Socialstatusistherespect,prominence,and

influenceindividualsenjoyintheeyesofothers(Anderson,John,Keltner,&Kring,

2001;Berger,Cohen,&Zelditch,1972;Goldhamer&Shils,1939).Highersocial

statuscomeswithahostofbenefitsincludingcontrolovergroupdecisions,access

toscarceresources,andreproductivesuccess(Bergeretal.,1972;Blau,1964;Ellis,


3

1994;Griskevicius,Tybur,&VandenBergh,2010;Keltner,Gruenfeld,&Anderson,

2003;Savin‐Williams,1979).Thedesireforhighstatusiswidelyconsidereda

universalhumanmotive(Buss,1999;Maslow,1943;Tay&Diener,2011).

Weconductedsixstudiesthattestedthreemainhypotheses.Thefirst

hypothesisisthatoverconfidencehelpsindividualsachievehigherstatusinsocial

groups.Thesecondhypothesisisthatoverconfidenceleadstostatusbecauseit

makesindividualsappearcompetenttoothers,evenwhentheylackcompetence.

Studies1through3testedthesetwohypothesesbyexaminingtaskdyadsand

groups,usingbothnaturalisticandexperimentaldesigns.Study4useda

Brunswikian(1956)lensanalysistoexaminevideorecordingsofoverconfident

individuals’behavior.Thethirdhypothesisisthatthedriveforsocialstatus

promotesoverconfidence.Studies5and6testedthishypothesisbymeasuringand

experimentallymanipulatingthedesireforstatusandobservingitseffecton

overconfidence.

DefiningandConceptualizingOverconfidence

Generally,overconfidenceisdefinedasinaccurate,overlypositive

perceptionsofone’sabilitiesorknowledge(forareview,seeMoore&Healy,2008).

Individualscanbeoverconfidentinanumberofways.Forinstance,peoplecan

overestimatetheirabilitiesorperformancerelativetoobjective,operationalcriteria

(e.g.,Buehler,Griffin,&Ross,1994;Krueger&Wright,2011;).Alternatively,people

canbeoverconfidentbyoverplacingthemselvesrelativetoothers–thatis,when

theybelievetheyarebetterthanothers,evenwhentheyarenot(e.g.,Krueger&

Mueller,2002;Kruger&Dunning,1999;Larricketal.,2007).Individualsare


4

overconfidentwhentheybelievetheyaremorecompetentthanobjectivemeasures

indicate,orwhentheythinktheyarebetterthanotherstoagreaterextentthanthey

actuallyare.

Overconfidenceisthereforedifferentfromself‐presentationandimpression

management,whichinvolvedeliberateattemptstopresentoneselfinapositivelight

(Baumeister,1982;Goffman,1959;Leary&Kowalski,1990;Paulhus,1984).Self‐

presentationandimpressionmanagementinvolvemodifyingone’sovertsocial

behaviors,oftenconsciouslyanddeliberately.Individualswhomanagetheir

impressionsmightormightnotbelievetheimpressiontheyaretryingtoconveyto

others.Incontrast,overconfidenceisagenuineyetflawedperceptionofone’sown

abilities(seevonHippel&Trivers,2011).Overconfidencecanpersistevenwhenthe

stakesarehighandalignedtorewardaccuracy(Ehrlinger,Johnson,Banner,

Dunning,&Kruger,2008;Hoelzl&Rustichini,2005;Williams&Gilovich,2008).

TheEffectsofOverconfidenceonStatus

Priorresearch.Totesttheargumentthatoverconfidencepervadesself‐

judgmentbecauseithelpsindividualsattainstatus,itwascriticaltofirstexamine

whetheroverconfidenceindeedhelpsindividualsattainsocialstatus.Thoughan

abundanceofresearchhasexaminedoverlypositiveself‐perceptions,studieshave

notadequatelytestedwhetheroverconfidenceleadstohigherpeer‐perceived

competenceandstatus(vonHippel&Trivers,2011).Moreover,theevidence

relevanttothisquestionhasprovidedhighlymixedresults.

Intheoverconfidenceliterature,scholarshavefocusedlargelyonmistakesin

decision‐makingandtheirimplicationsforperformanceoreconomicoutcomes


5

(Barber&Odean,2000;Cheng,2007;Camerer&Lovallo,1999;Koellinger,Minniti,

&Schade,2007;Malmendier&Tate,2005;Odean,1998;Odean,1999).Littlework

hasaddressedtheinterpersonalconsequencesofoverconfidence,suchasthe

impactofoverconfidenceonpeer‐ratedcompetenceorstatus(vonHippel&Trivers,

2011).

OtherworkhasexaminedoverlypositiveperceptionsusingwhatKwanand

colleaguescalledasocialcomparisonapproach,whichcomparesindividuals’self‐

perceptionstotheirperceptionsofothers(cf.Bonanno,Field,Kovacevic,Kaltman,

2002;Kwan,John,Kenny,Bond,&Robbins,2004;;Taylor&Brown,1988;Taylor,

Lerner,Sherman,Sage,&McDowell,2003).Accordingtothisapproach,individuals

possessoverlypositiveviewsiftheybelievetheyarebetterthanothers.However,

thosestudieshavenotoftendistinguishedinaccurate,overlypositiveself‐

perceptionsfromthosethatarejustifiablypositive(cf.Kwanetal.,2004;Tayloret

al.,2003).Therefore,peopleinthosestudieswhobelievedtheywerebetterthan

othersmighthaveinfactbeenbetterthanothers.Itiscriticaltoassesswhether

inaccurateself‐perceptionsperseleadtothosebenefits.

Stillotherscholarshaveexaminedoverlypositiveself‐perceptionsusing

whatKwanandcolleaguescalledaself‐insightapproach,whichcompares

individuals’self‐perceptionstoothers’perceptionsofthem(Anderson,Srivastava,

Beer,Spataro,&Chatman,2006;Colvin,Block,&Funder,1995;John&Robins,

1994;Paulhus,1998;Robins&Beer,2001).Inthisapproach,individualswhoseself‐

perceptionsareloftierthanothers’perceptionsofthemareconsideredtopossess

overlypositiveself‐views.Yetthosestudiesaddressedadifferentphenomenonthan


6

theoneinwhichweareinterested.Namely,theyfocusedontheconsequencesof

possessingself‐perceptionsthataremorepositivethanothers’impressions.In

contrast,weareinterestedininaccurate,overlypositiveself‐perceptionsofability

andhowtheyimpactothers’impressions.

Totestourhypotheses,overconfidencewouldideallybemeasuredby

comparingself‐perceptionstooperationalcriteria–thatis,unambiguous,concrete

indicesofability.Forexample,anidealmeasureoftaskabilitywouldinvolvetest

scores,andameasureofscholasticabilitywouldinvolvegrades(cf.Paulhus,Harms,

Bruce,&Lysy,2003).Theuseofoperationalcriteriadirectlyassessestheaccuracy

ofself‐perceptionsofcompetenceandthusisstandardpracticeinthe

overconfidenceliterature(e.g.,Krueger&Mueller,2002;Kruger&Dunning,1999;

Larricketal.,2007;Moore&Healy,2008).Operationalindicesalsohelpavoidsome

ofthecomplicationsofusingpeer‐ratingsasbothabenchmarkofrealityandasa

dependentvariable,suchasthepossibilityofspuriouscorrelationsdrivenby

commonmethodvariance(seeZuckerman&Knee,1996).

Overconfidence,peer‐ratedcompetence,andsocialstatus.We

hypothesizedthatoverconfidencehelpsindividualsattainhighersocialstatus

becauseithelpsthemappearmorecompetentintheeyesofothers,evenwhenthey

lackcompetence.Howmightthiseffectoccur?Individuals’competenceresides

withinthemandishiddenfromothers.Peoplearethusoftenforcedtojudgeothers’

abilitiesbasedonsuperficialcuessuchasnonverbalbehavior,appearance,orstyle

ofspeaking.Forexample,individualsareperceivedasmorecompetentwhenthey

expresstheirideasmore,appearmoreconfidentintheiranswers,andexhibita


7

calmerandmorerelaxeddemeanor(Anderson&Kilduff,2009;Carli,LaFleur,&

Loeber,1995;Driskell,Olmstead,&Salas,1993;Imada&Hakel,1977;Radzevick&

Moore,2011;Reynolds&Gifford,2001;Ridgeway,1987;Tiedens&Fragale,2003).

Priorworksuggestsindividualswithhigherself‐perceptionsofcompetence

shoulddisplaymoreofthese“competencecues”intheirinteractionswithothers

(Baumeister,Campbell,Krueger,&Vohs,2003).Self‐perceptionsareapowerful

driverofsocialbehavior(e.g.,Swann,2005)andindividualswhobelievetheyare

competentshouldexhibitmorecompetencecues.

Moreover,evenoverlypositiveself‐perceptionsofability,oroverconfidence,

shouldleadindividualstodisplaymorecompetencecues.Self‐perceivedabilities

candetermineone’sbehavioraboveandbeyondone’sactualabilities(Bugental&

Lewis,1999;Campbell,Goodie,&Foster,2004;McNulty&Swann,1994;vonHippel

&Trivers,2011).Thissuggeststhatwhenindividualsperceivethemselvesashighly

competent–eveniftheylackcompetence–theyarelikelytoexhibitmore

competencecueswheninteractingwithothers.Therefore,insituationswherethere

isambiguityabouttheindividual’scompetence(whicharetypical;Moore&Healy,

2008),holdingactualcompetenceconstant,overconfidentindividualsshouldbe

perceivedasmorecompetentbyothers,comparedtoindividualswithmore

accurateself‐perceptionsofcompetence.

Tobeclear,wedonotarguethatthereisanythinguniqueabout

overconfidencepersethatleadsindividualstobeperceivedasmorecompetentby

others.Ahighlevelofunjustifiedconfidence(i.e.,overconfidence)shouldleadthe

individualtoexhibitmorecompetencecues,justasahighlevelofjustified


8

confidencedoes.Intheeyesoftheobserver,itisdifficulttodifferentiatejustified

fromunjustifiedconfidence.

Inturn,onceindividualsareperceivedtopossesshighercompetence,they

arelikelytobeaffordedhigherstatus.Althoughthecharacteristicsthatcanleadto

higherstatusaremultifaceted,aprimaryandconsistentpredictorofstatusin

groupsisperceivedcompetence(e.g.,Bergeretal.,1972;Driskell&Mullen,1990;

Lord,DeVader,&Alliger,1986).Ingeneral,groupsgivehigherstatustoindividuals

whoexhibitabilitiesthatwillhelpthegroupsucceed(Bergeretal.,1972;Eibl‐

Eibesfeldt,1989;Emerson,1962;Goldhamer&Shils,1939).Becausecompetent

individualscanprovideimportantcontributionstothegroup’ssuccess,theyare

givenhigherstatus.

Insum,wehypothesizethatoverconfidentindividualswillbeperceivedby

othersasmorecompetent,andinturnwillachievehigherstatusingroups,than

individualswithaccurateself‐perceptionsofability.Stateddifferently,ifPersonsA

andBhaveequallevelsofactualability,butPersonAhashigherconfidencethan

PersonB,PersonAwillbeseenasmorecompetentandwillattainhigherstatus

thanPersonB,evenifPersonA’sconfidenceisunjustified.

TheDesireforStatusasaPredictorofOverconfidence

Theargumentthatoverconfidencebiasesself‐judgmentbecauseithelpsthe

individualattainsocialstatusimpliesthatthehumandriveforstatuspromotes

overconfidence.Totestthisidea,weexaminedwhetherthedesireforstatusleadsto

higherlevelsofoverconfidence.


9

Asmentionedearlier,statuscomeswithahostofsocialbenefits,including

respect,influence,andsocialsupport(Bergeretal.,1972;Blau,1964;Ellis,1994;

Griskeviciusetal.,2011;Gruenfeld&Tiedens,2010).Correspondingly,many

theoristshavearguedthatthedesireforhigherstatusisafundamentaldriverof

humanbehavior(Barkow,1975;Buss,1999;Hogan,1983;Maslow,1943).However,

evenifthedesireforstatusispervasive,therearealsodifferencesacross

individualsinthedegreetowhichtheywanthigherstatus(Jackson,1999;Josephs,

Sellers,Newman,&Mehta,2006;SchmidMast,Hall,&Schmid,2010;Smith,

Wigboldus,&Dijksterhuis,2008).Someindividualsdesirestatusmorethanothers.

Thisinter‐individualvariationallowsfortestingtheassociationbetweenthedesire

forstatusandoverconfidence.Accordingly,wetestedwhetherindividual

differencesinthedesireforstatuspredictdifferencesinoverconfidence.

Priorworkhasnotyettestedtheassociationbetweenthedesireforstatus

andoverconfidence.Indeed,researchthathasexaminedlinksbetween

overconfidenceanddispositionalvariables,suchaspersonalitytraits,hasyielded

mixedresults.Somestudieshavefoundpositiverelationshipsbetweenpersonality

andoverconfidence(e.g.,Schaefer,Williams,Goodie,&Campbell,2004),while

othershavefoundnulleffects(e.g.,Stankov&Crawford,1997;Wright&Phillips,

1979).Moreover,toourknowledge,noonehasyetmanipulatedthedesirefor

statusandobserveditseffectsonoverconfidence.Thus,weexaminedtherelation

betweendesireforstatusandoverconfidenceusingbothnaturalisticand

experimentaldesigns.

Study1


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Study1addressedwhetheroverconfidentindividualsareperceivedtobe

morecompetentbyothersandwhethertheyattainhigherstatus.Totestthese

hypotheses,weexamineddyadsthatworkedtogetheronalaboratorytask.We

measuredthethreeconstructsofinterest–overconfidence,peer‐perceived

competence,andstatus–usingestablishedmethodsfromtheliterature.

Basedonpreviousresearchonoverconfidence,weusedageography

knowledgetask(Ehrlinger&Dunning,2003).Wefirstmeasuredparticipants’

overconfidencebyhavingthemcompletethegeographytaskindividuallyand

comparedtheirself‐perceivedperformancetotheiractualperformance(e.g.,

Ackerman,Beier,&Bowen,2002;Ames&Kammrath,2004;Jones,Panda,&

Desbiens,2008;Krueger&Mueller,2002;Kruger&Dunning,1999;Larricketal.,

2007;Moore&Small,2007).Wethenpairedparticipantsindyads,whereinthey

workedonthesamegeographytasktogether.Basedonthestatusliterature,we

collectedpeer‐assessmentsofcompetenceandstatusafterthedyadicinteraction

(e.g.,Anderson&Kilduff,2009;Bales,Strodtbeck,Mills,&Roseborough,1951;

Bergeretal.,1972;Driskell&Mullen,1990;Ridgeway,1987).

Method

Participants.Participantswere76undergraduatestudentsataWestCoast

universitywhoweredividedinto38dyads.Theyreceived$15fortheir

participation.

Procedure.Inthefirstphaseofthesession,participantswerepresented

withablankmapofNorthAmerica.Thismapcontainedasmallamountof

topographicalinformation(e.g.,riversandlakes),butcontainednoinformation


11

aboutstateornationalborders.Participantsweregivenalistof15U.S.citiesand

askedtoindicatethelocationofeachcitybyplacingadotonthemap.Participants

weretoldthatadotthatlieswithin150miles(2.1cmtoscale)oftheactuallocation

ofacitywouldbeconsideredcorrect.Aftercompletingthetest,participantsrated

theirownperformanceonthetaskandU.S.geographicknowledgemoregenerally.

Participantswerenevertoldtheiractualperformanceonthetest.Inthesecond

phaseofthestudy,participantsworkedindyads.Theywererandomlypairedand

askedtocompletethesametaskasadyad.Morethantwoparticipantswere

scheduledforeachlaboratorysession,allowingustopairunacquaintedparticipants

together.Aftercompletingthedyadictask,participantsprivatelyratedtheir

partner’scompetenceandstatusinthedyad.

Overconfidence.Wemeasuredoverplacement,theoverestimationofone’s

abilityrelativetothatofothers.1Intheindividualtask,participantswereasked(a)

howtheycomparedtotheotherparticipantsinthestudyontheirgeneral

knowledgeofU.S.geography,and(b)howtheirtaskscorescomparedtothoseof

otherparticipants.Bothquestionswereratedonascalefrom1(I’matthevery

bottom;worsethan99%ofthepeopleinthisstudy)to100(I’mattheverytop;

betterthan99%ofthepeopleinthisstudy).”Thesetwoitemscorrelated,r(74)=

.92,p<.01,andwerecombinedtomeasureself‐perceivedpercentilerank.

Wescoredactualperformanceasdescribedabove.Thisdataforone

participantwerelost,leaving75participants’datafortheanalyses.Participants

showedreliabilityintheirperformanceacrossthecities,α=.66(M=6.84,SD=

2.85).Wetransformedtheirscoresintopercentilerankingstocomparetheirself‐


12

perceivedrankstotheiractualranks(whichcorrelatedwitheachother,r[73]=.56,

p<.001).

Asmanyscholarsrecommend,wemeasuredoverconfidencebyregressing

participants’actualperformanceontotheirself‐evaluationsandretainingthe

residualsoftheself‐evaluations(Cohenetal.,2003;Cronbach&Furby,1970;

DuBois,1957;John&Robins,1994).2Theresidualscorecapturesthevariabilityin

self‐perceivedrankafterthevariancepredictedbyactualrankhasbeenremoved.

Partner‐ratedcompetence.Afterparticipantsworkedindyads,they

rankedtheirpartner’sU.S.geographicknowledgerelativetootherparticipants’

(usingthesamepercentilerankscale).Participantsalsoratedtheaccuracyoftheir

partner'sknowledgeofU.S.GeographyonaLikert‐styleitem,onascalefrom1(Not

atallaccurate)to7(Veryaccurate).Thesetwoitemscorrelatedwitheachotherr

(74)=.52,p<.001,α=.69,andwerestandardizedandcombinedtoformameasure

ofpartner‐ratedtaskcompetence.

Status.Previoustheoreticalconceptionsofstatusingroupshaveidentified

statusasinvolvingrespect,influence,leadership,andperceivedcontributionstothe

group’sdecisions(e.g.,Andersonetal.,2006;Balesetal.,1951;Bergeretal.,1972;

Cohen&Zhou,1991).Whilethesecomponentscanbeconceptuallydistinguished

fromeachother(e.g.,Goldhamer&Shils,1939;Magee&Galinsky,2008),theytend

tocorrelatesohighlyingroupsthattheyarebestunderstoodascomprisingone

overarchingstatusconstruct(e.g.,Andersonetal.,2001;Anderson&Kilduff,2009;

Balesetal.,1951;Berger,Rosenholtz,&Zelditch,1980;Blau,1964;Ridgeway,

1987).Therefore,inthisstudy,eachparticipantratedthedegreetowhichhisorher


13

partnerdeservedrespectandadmiration,hadinfluenceoverthedecisions,ledthe

decision‐makingprocess,andcontributedtothedecisions.Eachofthesefouritems

wasratedonascalefrom1(Disagreestrongly)to7(Agreestrongly).Thesefour

itemscorrelatedtogether(α=.87)sowecombinedthemintoonemeasureofstatus,

M=4.88,SD=1.36.

ResultsandDiscussion

Becausedatacollectedindyadscanviolateassumptionsofindependence,we

testedourhypotheseswithastatisticaltechniqueoutlinedbyGonzalezandGriffin

(1997).Thisinvolvescalculatingthecorrelationbetweenthevariablesand

translatingthecorrelationintoaz‐scorethataccountsfordependenceinthedata

(alsoseeGriffin&Gonzalez,1995).

Partner‐ratedcompetence.Asexpected,overconfidencepredictedpartner‐

ratedcompetence,r(73)=.36(z=3.07,p<.01).Thissuggeststhatmore

overconfidentindividualswereperceivedasmorecompetentbytheirpartners,as

comparedtoindividualswithmoreaccurateself‐perceptions.Infact,

overconfidencehadasstrongarelationshipwithpartner‐ratedcompetenceasdid

actualability,r(73)=.39(z=3.44,p<.01).Itisimportanttonotethattheindexof

overconfidenceweemployedreflectsbiasinself‐perceptions.Consequently,the

observedcorrelationreflectstherelationshipbetweenpositivebiasinself‐

perceptionandothers’ratingsofone’sabilities.

Status.Overconfidencealsopredictedstatusinthedyad,r(73)=.26(z=

2.10,p<.05),suggestingthatoverconfidentindividualsachievedhigherstatusthan

individualswithmoreaccurateself‐perceptions.Again,therelationshipbetween


14

overconfidenceandstatuswasalmostasstrongasthatbetweenactualabilityand

status,r(73)=.33(z=2.71,p<.05).

Wethusexaminedwhethertherelationbetweenoverconfidenceandstatus

wasmediatedbypartners’ratingsofcompetence.Thismediationanalysisis

illustratedinFigure1.WeusedPreacherandHayes’(2008)bootstrapping

procedure.Weused1000resampleswithreplacementtoderivea95%confidence

bias‐correctedconfidenceintervalfortheindirecteffectofoverconfidenceonstatus

astransmittedviapartner‐ratedcompetence.Thisanalysisrevealedanindirect

effectof.018witha95%confidenceintervalrangingfrom.007–.032.Becausethe

intervalexcludeszero,thisindicatedastatisticallysignificantindirecteffect

(Preacher&Hayes,2008).Further,therelationbetweenoverconfidenceandstatus

wasreducedtozero(b*=.00,t=.025,ns)aftercontrollingforpartner‐rated

competence.Thissuggeststhattherelationbetweenoverconfidenceandstatusin

thedyadwasfullymediatedbypartner‐ratingsofcompetence.

Summary.Consistentwithourhypotheses,overconfidentindividualswere

perceivedasmorecompetentbytheirpartners.Moreover,thishigherpeer‐rated

competenceledoverconfidentindividualstoattainhigherstatusinthedyadictask.

Study2

Study2extendedthefindingsfromStudy1inseveralways.First,some

theoristshavesuggestedthattheinterpersonalbenefitsofoverlypositiveself‐

perceptionsarelimitedtoshort‐terminteractionsandthattheydisappearover

time,asindividualsgettoknoweachotherandobtainenoughevidencetoassess

whethereachperson’sconfidenceisjustified(Colvinetal.,1995;Tenney,Spellman,


15

&MacCoun,2008).However,priorevidenceinsupportofthisargumentused

personalitytraitsandself‐insightmeasuresdescribedintheintroduction(Paulhus,

1998).Weexpectedthestatus‐relatedbenefitsofoverconfidencetoendureover

time.Otherwise,thestatus‐relatedbenefitsofoverconfidencewouldbesomewhat

limited,giventhelargeproportionoftimeindividualsspendinteractingwith

friends,colleagues,andcoworkers(i.e.,individualswithwhomoneisfamiliar).In

Study2,weassessedprojectteamsthatworkedcloselytogetherover7weeks.

Second,tofurthertesttherobustnessofourfinding,weusedadifferent

measureofoverconfidence–Paulhusandcolleagues’well‐validatedandwidely

usedOver‐ClaimingQuestionnaire(OCQ;Paulhusetal.,2003).TheOCQisaclever

waytomeasureoverconfidenceinone’sbodyofknowledge.Itasksrespondentsto

ratetheirfamiliaritywithalistofitemssuchasfamousnames,events,orclothing

brands.Someoftheitemsarefoils,inthattheydonotactuallyexist.Themeasure

gaugestheextenttowhichindividualsover‐claim,orclaimknowledgeaboutnon‐

existentitems,andthusexhibitoverconfidenceintheirknowledge(Paulhusetal.,

2003).TheOCQwasidealforourpurposesbecauseitassessesoverconfidenceusing

operationalcriteria.Individualswhoclaimfamiliaritywithnonexistentitemsare

exhibitingadeparturefromreality,andoverconfidence.Indeed,theOCQcorrelates

withoverplacement(Paulhusetal.,2003).

Third,wewantedtoruleoutthepossibilitythatindividualdifferencesacted

asthirdvariables.Inparticular,confidencehasbeenassociatedwithhigherlevelsof

optimism(Wolfe&Grosch,1990),traitdominance(Gough,McClosky,&Meehl,,

1951),andextraversion(Schaeferetal.,2004),andlowerlevelsofneuroticism


16

(Costa&McCrae,1992).Eachofthesefourindividualdifferenceshasalsobeen

linkedtotheattainmentofstatus(Andersonetal.,2001;Lordetal.,1986;Stogdill,

1948).Therefore,wemeasuredeachoftheseindividualdifferences.

Fourth,wewantedtodemonstratethatgrantingstatustooverconfident

individualsisa“real”effect,inthatgroupmemberstrulybelievedthemtobe

worthy.Wethusutilized“life‐outcome”datainStudy2inadditiontopeer‐rated

status.Inthesestudentteams,partoftheirfinalgradeintheclasswasdetermined

bythegradegiventothembytheirteammates.Wetestedwhetheroverconfidence

wouldhelpindividualsachievehigherpeer‐assignedgradesaswellashigherstatus.

Method

Participants.Thestudy’sparticipantswerethe243membersofthefirst‐

yearMastersofBusinessAdministration(MBA)classataWestCoastbusiness

school(69%men).Participantsinthesamplehadbeenassignedtooneof48

groupsoffiveorsixpeoplebytheschoolatthebeginningoftheyear,withthegoal

ofmaximizingthediversityofeachgroupintermsofgender,race,culture,

disciplinarytraining,andworkexperience.

Procedure.Priortothefirstdayofclass,participantswereaskedviaemail

tocompleteanonlinesurveywithindividualdifferencemeasures.Overthecourse

oftheseven‐weekclass,studentsworkedintenselytogetherintheirgroupsto

completeacourseprojectthatwassubmittedonthefinaldayofclass.Thefinal

projectwasapaperonwhichthegroupcollaborated.Studentsworkedinthese

samegroupsforallfouroftheclassestheyweretakingatthatsametime.Twodays

afterthefinalclasssession,participantsreceivedalinktoanonlinesurveythat


17

askedthemtorateeachgroupmember.Wewereunabletomeasurepeer‐rated

competenceandthusfocusedonstatusintheteam.

Overconfidence.Priortothefirstdayofclass,participantscompleteda60‐

itemversionoftheOver‐ClaimingQuestionnaire(OCQ;Paulhusetal.,2003),which

askedthemtoratetheirfamiliaritywith60itemsinfourdifferentdomainsona

scalerangingfrom0(neverheardofit)to4(knowitverywell).Oneoutofeveryfive

itemswasafoil,inthatitwasbogus.WeusedPaulhusandcolleagues’(2003)

recommendedstrategyofscoringover‐claimingwithsignaldetectionanalysis.The

scoringroughlytranslatestothemeanofthehitrate(i.e.,theproportionoftimes

thepersoncorrectlyidentifiedanitemthatactuallyexists)andthefalse‐alarmrate

(i.e.,theproportionoftimesthepersonincorrectlyidentifiedanonexistentitemas

real),thuscapturingthetendencytosay“Yes,Irecognizethatitem”versus“No,I

don’trecognizethatitem.”Theover‐claimingindexwasreliable(α=.70).4

Toexaminetheeffectofactualknowledge,wealsoscoredparticipants’

accuracyontheOCQusingPaulhusetal.’s(2003)recommendedstrategythatalso

involvessignaldetectionanalysis.Accuracyisindexedbythenumberofhitsrelative

tothenumberoffalsealarms;individualsreceivepointsforaccuratehitsand

penaltiesforfalsealarms.Anaccurateindividual,then,isnottheonescoringthe

mosthitsbuttheoneshowingthebestabilitytodiscriminatebetweenexistentand

nonexistentitems.TheOCQaccuracyindexwasalsoreliable(α=.60).

Optimism.WemeasuredoptimismwithScheier,Carver,andBridges’s

(1994)six‐itemLifeOrientationTest‐Revised(α=.78).


18

Dominance.Participantsratedtheirtraitdominancewiththe16itemsfrom

thedominanceandsubmissivenessscalesfromtheRevisedInterpersonalAdjective

Scales(IAS‐R;Wiggins,Trapnell,&Phillips,1988),α=.80.

BigFivepersonalitydimensions.Extraversioninvolvestraitssuchas

sociability,activity,andpositiveemotionality(John&Srivastava,1999).

Neuroticismreflectsindividualdifferencesinnegativeemotionality(Costa&

McCrae,1992).Tomeasurethesedimensions,weusedtheBigFiveInventory(BFI;

John&Srivastava,1999).Thereliabilitiesweresatisfactoryforextraversion(α=

.85)andneuroticism(α=.73).

Status.Duetospacelimitations,weaskedonestatusquestionattheendof

thesevenweeks:“Pleaseindicatehowmucheachgroupmemberinfluencedthe

group’sdecisions”ona1(verylittle)to7(agreatdeal)scale.Influenceisacore

componentofstatushierarchiesor“power‐prestige”ordersingroups;further,

individualsmustachieverespectandadmirationintheeyesofothers,ortheywill

notbegrantedinfluence(Blau,1964;Homans,1950;Ridgeway&Diekema,1989).

Thegroupmembers’ratingsofeachotherconstitutedaround‐robindesign,

soweusedthesoftwareprogramSOREMO(Kenny,1994)toimplementtheSocial

RelationsModel(SRM)analysesofthesepeerratings(Kenny&LaVoie,1984).We

foundsignificantpeeragreementinthesejudgments(relativetargetvariance=.74).

SOREMOcalculatesatargetscoreforeachparticipantoneachpeer‐rated

dimension.Thistargetscoreisessentiallytheaverageoftheratingsgiventothe

persononthatdimension,butSOREMOremovesgroupdifferencesfromtarget

scores,makingthemstatisticallyindependentofgroupmembership.Inaddition,we


19

centeredallotherindividualdifferencevariablesaroundtheirgroupmeanto

controlforgroupeffects.(Wealsorantheanalyseswithnon‐centeredvariables;no

findingchangedfromstatisticallysignificanttonon‐significantorvice‐versa).

Peer‐assignedgrade.Eachindividualassignedagrade(AthroughF)toeach

othergroupmember.Gradeswerethencodedusinggradepoints(0‐4).


AsshowninTable1,overconfidence(i.e.,over‐claiming)predictedinfluence

inthegroup,supportingourhypothesisthatoverconfidentindividualswouldhave

higherstatus,evenafterthegrouphadworkedtogetherforsevenweeks.Table1

presentscoefficientsfromamultipleregressionanalysisinwhichwepredicted

statuswithoverconfidenceandaccuracyontheOCQaswellastheaforementioned

fourindividualdifferencevariables.Thisfindinglendssomereassurancethatthe

relationbetweenoverconfidenceandstatuswasnotdrivenbyanyoftheseother

variables.Wealsotestedforapossiblecurvilineareffect,butthequadratictermina

multipleregressionwasagainnotsignificant,B=‐.04(SE=.03,n.s.).Asshownin

Table1,overconfidencealsopredictedthegradethatteammatesassignedtothe

individual,suggestingthatoverconfidentindividualsnotonlyattainedhigherstatus

butwerealsoassignedhighergradesbypeers.Theseresultsalsohelpfurther

establishthatoverconfidencehasconsequencesforoutcomesforwhichindividuals

careagreatdeal.

Study3

AlthoughStudy2addressedanumberofpossiblethird‐variable

explanations,inStudy3,wetooktheadditionalstepofusinganexperimentaldesign


20

thatmanipulatedoverconfidence.Oneobviouswaytomanipulateoverconfidence

wouldbetopresentparticipantswithvignettesofindividualswhoexhibit

overconfidence(e.g.,Jones&Shrauger,1970;Powers&Zuroff,1986).However,this

methodmightsufferfromlowerexternalvalidity,asstudiessuggestthatconfident

individualsrarelydirectlyboastaboutthemselves(Anderson&Kilduff,2009).We

thusaimedtomanipulateoverconfidencemorerealistically,inactualindividuals

whothenworkedwithothersonjointtasks.

Previousresearchhasusedfalsefeedbackmanipulationstoshapethe

positivityofparticipants’self‐concept(e.g.,Harmon‐Jonesetal.,1997).Though

muchofthatworkprovidedfocusedonself‐esteem,wethusprovidedmorespecific

feedbackaboutabilitiesonaspecifictasktoinfluenceoverconfidenceonly.

Tomanipulateoverconfidence,weneededtofocusonself‐perceptionsof

abilitythatwouldbepossibletomanipulateinthelaboratory.Onesuchabilityis

personperception.Priorresearchsuggeststhatindividualstendtobelargely

unawareoftheirpersonperceptionaccuracy(e.g.,Ames&Kammrath,2004;

DePaulo,Charlton,Cooper,Lindsay,&Muhlenbruck,1997;Swann&Gill,1997).We

exploitedthisbygivingrandomlyselectedparticipantsoverlypositivefeedback

abouttheirpersonperceptionskills.Othersreceivedaccuratefeedback.

Method

Participants.Participantswereundergraduatestudents(N=80,53%

women)ataWestCoastuniversitywhoreceivedcoursecredit.Theparticipants

wereonaverage21yearsold(SD=1.0).Thesamplewas70%Asian‐American,

20%Caucasian,and10%whoreportedothertheirethnicities.


21

Procedureanddesign.Thelaboratorysessionhadthreephases.Inthefirst

phase,participantsprivatelyviewedstillimagesof10individualsviacomputerand

judgedeachindividual’spersonalityon10items(Gosling,Rentfrow,&Swann,

2003).3Afterjudgingeachtarget,participantsestimatedtheirownperformance.

Tomanipulateself‐perceivedability,afterparticipantsjudgedthefirstfive

targets,thoserandomlyassignedtotheoverconfidentconditionreceivedoverly

positivefeedbackabouttheirperformanceuptothatpoint,whereasthoserandomly

assignedtotheaccurateconditionreceivedaccurateperformancefeedback.(We

administeredthisfeedbackhalfwaythroughtheindividualtasksowecouldcheck

itseffectivenessintheremainderoftheindividualtask.)

Inthesecondphaseofthesession,participantsintheoverconfidentcondition

wererandomlypairedindyadswithparticipantsintheaccurateconditionandthey

completedasimilarpersonperceptiontasktogether.Finally,dyadpartnerswere

separatedandprivatelyprovidedvariouspeer‐ratings.

Overconfidencemanipulation.FollowingSwannandGill(1997),

participantsweretoldthateachanswerwasconsideredcorrectifitwaswithin0.5

aboveorbelowthetarget’struescore.Participantsintheoverconfidentcondition

weretoldthattheyanswered37outof50responsescorrectlyonthefirstfive

targets.5Intheaccuratecondition,participantsweretoldtheactualnumberofitems

theyansweredcorrectlyforthefirstfivetargets,whichonaveragewas8.8outof50

(SD=3.03).Asuspicioncheckattheendofthestudyshowedthatnoparticipantin

eitherconditionsuspectedtheperformancefeedbacktobefalse.


22

Toensurethatparticipantsinbothconditionsinterpretedtheirscoresusing

thesamemetric,wealsotoldthemthatattaining8correctanswerswasperforming

“aswellaschance(thesameasguessingrandomly),”andthatattaining32correct

answerswasperforming“extremelywell.”Toavoidthepossibilitythatdyad

partnerswouldsimplyexchangetheirfeedbackscores,participantswereinstructed

nottosharetheirscoreswiththeirpartner.Anexperimenterwaspresentwhile

dyadsworkedtogethertoensurenopartnersexchangedthisinformation.

Self‐perceivedcompetence.AsinStudy1,intheindividualtask,

participantsestimatedtheirpercentilerankrelativetootherstudentsattheir

university.Beforeparticipantsweregivenperformancefeedback,theirestimatesof

theirownabilitieswerereliableacrossthefirstfivetargets(α=.93),andthus

combined.Aftertheyreceivedthefeedback,participants’estimatesoftheirown

abilitieswereagainreliableacrossthesecondsetoffivetargets(α=.96),andthus

combined.

Actualperformance.Wescoredparticipants’actualperformanceonthe

taskusingthemethoddescribedtothem.Participantsshowedreliabilityintheir

actualaccuracyacrosstargets,α=.71.Wethuscombinedtheirscoresacrossthe

targetstoformanoverallindexofactualability,andthentransformedtheir

performancescoresintopercentilerankingstoallowustoscoreoverplacement.

Partner‐ratedcompetence.Inthepeer‐ratingsphase,participants

estimatedtheirpartner’scompetenceonthetaskwithfouritems.First,theyused

thesamepercentile‐rankitemonwhichtheyassessedtheirownability.Toincrease

thereliabilityofthispeer‐rating,theyalsoratedtheirpartnerusingthreeitems


23

fromtheMind‐ReadingBeliefScale(Realoetal.,2003):“Astranger’scharacteris

revealedtomypartneratfirstsight,”“Itishardformypartnertotellaperson’s

thoughtsbytheirlooks,”and“Idonotthinkmypartnerisgoodatknowinghuman

nature/judgingpeople.”Thesethreeitemswereratedonascalefrom1(Disagree

strongly)to7(Agreestrongly).Afterstandardizingallitemsandreverse‐scoringthe

lattertwo,theycorrelatedtogether(α=.63)andthuscombined.

Statusinthedyad.Participantsratedtheirpartner’sstatusinthedyadwith

thesamefouritemsasinStudy1.Theitemmeasuringrespectandadmirationhada

lowitem‐totalcorrelation(.13)andwasexcludedfromthemeasure.Theremaining

threeitemsshowedsufficientreliability(α=.62)andthuscombined.

Stateself‐esteem.Providingindividualswithpositivefeedbackaboutthe

selfcanboostself‐esteem(e.g.,Harmon‐Jonesetal.,1997).Toalleviatetheconcern

thatanyeffectsofthemanipulationmightbeduetoself‐esteemratherthanto

overconfidence,wemeasuredstateself‐esteeminthepeer‐ratingsphaseusing

HeathertonandPolivy’s(1991)20‐itemmeasure(α=.87).


Manipulationcheck.Asexpected,arepeated‐measuresANOVAshowedthat

beforetheperformancefeedbackwasadministered,self‐perceivedrankingsin

competencedidnotdifferbetweenparticipantsintheoverconfidentcondition(M=

61.61,SD=14.84)andintheaccuratecondition(M=61.23,SD=14.76),F(1,39)=

.02,ns.Thusparticipantsinthetwoconditionsdidnotdifferinoverconfidence

beforethefeedbackwasadministered.


24

However,afterthefeedbackwasadministered,arepeated‐measuresANOVA

showedthatparticipantsintheoverconfidentconditionhadhigherself‐perceptions

oftheircompetencerelativetoothers’(M=62.82,SD=15.82)thandidparticipants

intheaccuratecondition(M=57.14,SD=15.25),F(1,39)=3.92,p=.05.Further,a

within‐subjectsANOVAshowedthatparticipantsintheoverconfidentcondition

overestimatedtheirranks,F(1,39)=17.37,p<.01,whereasparticipantsinthe

accurateconditiondidnot,F(1,39)=1.70,ns.Therefore,thefeedbackmanipulation

waseffective.Itisinterestingtonote,however,thattheoverconfidencecondition

didnotboostparticipants’overconfidence,butrather,allowedthemtoremain

overconfident.Theaccuracyconditionreducedparticipants’overconfidenceto

makethemmoreaccurate.

Finally,abetween‐subjectsANOVAshowedthatparticipantsinthe

overconfidentcondition(M=3.76,SD=0.58)reportedthesamelevelofstateself‐

esteemasparticipantsintheaccuratecondition(M=3.76,SD=.49),F(1,39)=.00,

ns.Thus,themanipulationhadthetargetedeffectonoverconfidencebutdidnot

affectstateself‐esteem.

Partner‐ratedcompetence.Arepeated‐measuresANOVAshowedthat

participantsintheoverconfidentconditionwereperceivedbytheirpartnersasmore

competentatthetask(M=.23,SD=0.63)thanparticipantsintheaccurate

condition(M=‐.25,SD=0.68),F(1,39)=13.20,p<.01.Thisprovidessomecausal

evidencethatoverconfidenceledtobeingperceivedasmoretaskcompetent.To

illustratethiseffectinamoreintuitiveway,wefocusedononeoftheitemsofthe

partner‐ratedcompetenceindex—thepartner’sratingoftheparticipant’spercentile


25

rank.WepresentthecomparisonacrossconditiononthisiteminFigure2.This

differencewassignificant,F(1,39)=4.85,p<.05,eventhoughparticipantsinthe

twoconditionsdidnotdifferinactualabilities,F(1,39)=.48,ns.

Status.Arepeated‐measuresANOVAshowedthatparticipantsinthe

overconfidentcondition(M=4.74,SD=0.85)alsoattainedhigherstatusinthedyad

thanparticipantsintheaccuratecondition(M=4.10,SD=0.88),F(1,39)=7.80,p<

.01.Therefore,thisprovidesevidencethatoverconfidenceledtoachievinghigher

status.

Wenextexaminedwhetherpartner‐ratedabilitymediatedtheeffectof

overconfidenceonstatususingamethodsuggestedbyJudd,Kenny,andMcClelland

(2001).Theregressioncoefficientofthedifferencescoreforthemediatorwas

significant(b=.44,SE=.26,b*=.26,p=.05),whichindicatespartner‐rated

competencemediatedtheeffectofoverconfidenceonstatus.Theinterceptwasalso

significant(b=.43,SE=.26,p=.05),indicatingtheeffectofoverconfidenceon

statuswasstillsignificant,controllingforthemediatingeffectofpartner‐rated

competence(Juddetal.,2001).Therefore,thissuggestsoverconfidenceledtostatus

inpartbecauseitledtobeingperceivedasmorecompetent.

Summary.Thepartnersofindividualsinducedtobeoverconfident

perceivedthemasmoretaskcompetentandaccordedthemhigherstatusthan

individualsintheaccuratecondition,whoweremoreaccurateintheirself‐

perceptionsofability.Study3usedanexperimentaldesignandthusprovidedmore

directevidencethatoverconfidenceledtohigherpeer‐perceptionsofcompetence,


26

andinturn,higherstatus.Amediationanalysisconfirmedthattheeffectof

overconfidenceonstatuswaspartiallyexplainedbypeer‐perceptionsofability.

Study4

Studies1through3foundthatoverconfidentindividualsattainedhigher

statusbecausetheywereperceivedbyotherstobecompetent,evenwhenthe

impressionwasartifice.Butwhatexactlydooverconfidentindividualsdothat

makesthemappearcompetent?Study4examinedthebehavioraldisplaysof

overconfidentindividuals.

Inthisanalysis,weutilizedBrunswik’s(1956)lensmodelofhuman

perception.AccordingtoBrunswik’smodel,behavioralcuesdisplayedbyatarget

canserveasakindoflensthroughwhichobserversindirectlyperceivethetarget’s

innercharacteristics(seeFigure3).Forexample,someone’ssmilecouldserveasthe

lensthroughwhichanobserverinfersatarget’shighlevelofagreeableness.In

Brunswik’smodel,cueutilizationreferstothelinkbetweentheobservablecue(e.g.,

smile)andanobserver’sjudgment(e.g.,ofagreeableness).Ontheleftsideofthe

lens,wewillusethetermcuedisplaytorefertothelinkbetweenthetarget’sinner

characteristicandthebehavioralcue.Acorrelationbetweenaninnercharacteristic

(e.g.,agreeableness)andthedisplayofacue(e.g.,smile)indicatesthattheinner

characteristicpredictsthedisplayofthatcue(e.g.,thathigherlevelsof

agreeablenesspredictmoresmiles).

Wehypothesizedthatthebehavioralcuesdisplayedbyoverconfident

individualswouldmatchthebehavioralcuesobserversusetoinfercompetence.

Therefore,wewereprimarilyinterestedintwoquestions—whichbehavioralcues


27

areusedbyobserverstoinfercompetenceinothers,andwhichbehavioralcues

overconfidentpeopledisplay.Alonganexploratoryvein,wewerealsointerestedin

thebehavioralcuesdisplayedbyindividualswhoareactuallycompetent.Previous

researchhasshownthatobserversarenothighlyaccurateinperceivingothers’

competence(e.g.,Minson,Liberman,&Ross,2011).Onepossibilityisthatsuchlow

accuracyisduetolowcue‐displaycorrelationsforactualcompetence;inother

words,individualswhoareactuallycompetentmightnotdisplaythecuesthat

othersutilizetoinfercompetence.

Basedonasurveyofrelevantresearch(e.g.,Anderson&Kilduff,2009;Carli

etal.,1995;DePauloetal.,2003;Driskelletal.,1993;Imada&Hakel,1977;

Ridgeway,1987;Scherer,London,&Wolf,1973;Tracy&Robins,2004),we

hypothesizedthatobserverswouldutilizethedegreetowhichindividuals

contributedtothegroupdiscussion(e.g.,theamounttheyspoke,providedanswers

andopinions)andtheirnonverbaldemeanor(e.g.,confidentandfactualvocaltone,

relaxeddemeanor)toinfercompetence,andthatoverconfidentindividualswould

displaythesebehavioralcues.

Asanopenresearchquestion,wealsoexaminedexplicitstatementsof

confidence(e.g.,“Iamreallygoodatthis”).Previousresearchhasshownthatsuch

explicitstatementsleadtheindividualtobeperceivedasmorecompetentbyothers

(Jones&Shrauger,1970;Powers&Zuroff,1988).Therefore,weexpectedexplicit

statementsofconfidencetobeutilizedbyobserverstoinfercompetence.However,

explicitstatementsofconfidencealsomakeapersonseemunlikeable(Jones&

Shrauger,1970;Powers&Zuroff,1988).Moreover,toattainstatus,onecannotbe


28

disliked(Homans,1950;Roethlisberger&Dickson,1938;Whyte,1943).Therefore,

itwaspossiblethatoverconfidentindividualswouldnotdisplaythosebehaviors,as

theywouldbebestservedavoidingsuchexplicitstatements.

Finally,wewantedtoruleoutapossiblealternativeexplanationforour

findings.Ifweweretofindthatgroupsperceivedoverconfidentindividualsasmore

competent,itispossiblethattheseperceptionsmightreflectmotivatedperceptual

biases.Forexample,priortheoristshavesuggestedthatwithingroups,members

tendtodefertomoreassertiveindividuals,andthenconstructoverlypositive

perceptionsofthoseindividuals’competencetorationalizetheirownpassivity(Lee

&Ofshe,1981).Inasmuchasoverconfidencerelatestoassertiveness(Goughetal.,

1951),wethoughitimportanttoaddressthisalternativeexplanation.Wethus

askedindependent,outsideobserverstorateparticipants’competenceaswell,to

helpestablishthatoverconfidentindividualsactuallyappearedcompetenttoothers.

Outsideobserversshouldfeelnoneedtorationalizeanyofthegroupmembers’

passivity,andthustheirperceptionsshouldnotsufferfromanyrelatedbiases.

Therefore,weexpectedoverconfidentindividualstobeperceivedasmore

competentbyoutsideobserversinadditiontogroupmembers.

Methods

Participants.Participantswere120studentsandstaff(56%women)ata

WestCoastuniversitythatparticipatedaspartofabroaderstudyofsmallgroups

(seeKennedy,Anderson,&Moore,2011).Themeanagewas20years(SD=4.1).

Thesamplewasapproximately60%Asian,28%Caucasian,5%Hispanic,1%

AfricanAmerican,and6%otherracialbackgrounds.


29

Procedure.Uponarrivalatthelaboratory,participantswereassignedto

groupsoffour.Inthefirstphaseofthestudy,groupswerepresentedwithtenfull‐

bodyphotographsofindividualsandaskedtoestimateeachindividual’sweight

separately,usingtheirownanswersheet.Thistaskhasbeenusedinprevious

researchonoverconfidence(Moore&Klein,2008).Duringthisfirstphase,

participantswereinstructednottospeaktoeachotheruntileveryonehadfinished

withtheir10estimates.Thepresenceofanexperimenterensuredcompliancewith

thisinstruction.Inthesecondphaseofthestudy,groupmembersworkedtogether,

whilebeingvideotaped,toestimatetheweightsoftheindividualsinthe

photographs.Inthethirdphaseofthestudy,aftercompletingall10estimatesasa

group,participantsprivatelyratedeachother’srelativecompetenceatthetask.

Overconfidence.Sofarwehavemeasuredoverconfidence–specifically

overplacement–byfocusingonindividuals’self‐perceivedrankrelativetoallother

participantsinthestudy.Yetindividualsattainhigherstatusinagroupwhenthey

areperceivedasmorecompetentthanothergroupmembers(Bergeretal.,1972).

Forexample,arelativelyincompetentpersonislikelytoattainhighstatusina

groupofindividualswhoareevenlesscompetentthanhim.Wethusmeasured

overplacementbyassessingself‐perceivedperformancerelativetoothergroup

members.Participantsprivatelyreportedtheirperceptionsoftheirownabilitiesat

thetaskbyansweringtheitem,“Pleaserankthefourmembersofyourgroupwith

respecttotheirabilitytocorrectlyestimatepeople’sweights.”FollowingMooreand

Klein(2008),wemeasuredparticipants’actualperformanceintheindividualtask

bycalculatinghowclosetheirweightestimatesweretothecorrectweightforeach


30

photograph.Theparticipantwiththehighestaccuracyinestimatesreceivedthe

rankof“1,”thenextsmallest,“2,”etc.Onlytwogroupshadmemberswhotied,and

bothweretiedfor3rdrank.AsinStudy1,weregressedparticipants’self‐perceived

rankontheiractualrankandretainedtheresidual.

Peer‐rankedcompetence.Participantsprivatelyrankedeachgroup

member’scompetence.AsinStudy3,weconductedasocialrelationsmodelanalysis

oftheseround‐robinpeer‐perceptions.Groupmembersagreedaboutoneanother’s

taskability,inthatthevarianceattributabletothepersonratedwassignificant(the

relativetargetvariancewas.42;Kenny&LaVoie,1984).SOREMOalsocalculateda

targetscoreforeachparticipant,whichwasessentiallyhisorheraveragepeer‐

perceivedcompetence.Wethenreverse‐scoredtheserankingmeasuressothat

higherrankingsindicatedhigherpeer‐perceivedcompetence.

Ratingsofcompetencemadebyoutsidejudges.Inselectingoutside

observerswhowouldratethegroupmembers,wewantedtoavoidconfounding

groupmembership(i.e.,beingagroupmembervs.anoutsideobserver)withthe

judges’characteristics.Forexample,ifoutsideobserverswereolderormore

educatedthangroupmembers,theymightperceivegroupmembersdifferentlythan

groupmembersperceiveeachother.Toavoidthispotentialconfound,outside

observerswereselectedwhowereassimilartothegroupmembersaspossible.

Specifically,120undergraduatestudents,recruitedfromthesamesubjectpoolas

thetargetparticipants,wereusedasindependentpeerjudgesofcompetence.Four

separateindependentpeerjudgeswereassignedtoeachvideotape.Eachjudge

watchedasinglegroup’sinteractioninitsentiretyandratedallfourgroupmembers


31

intheirassignedgrouponthesamepeer‐rankedcompetencemeasureonwhich

groupmembersrankedeachother.

Recruitingoutsideobserversfromasubjectpoolgeneratedanadditional

concern,however–namely,thatthesejudgesmightstillbemotivatedtorationalize

thehierarchiestheyobservedinthegroups.Thatis,ifgroupmembersmightbe

motivatedtorationalizetheirownpassivity(Lee&Ofshe,1981),thensubjectpool

judgesmightalsobesimilarlymotivated,becausetheymightidentifywiththe

participantsinthevideotape.Toaddressthisconcern,werecruitedasecondsetof

judgesusingAmazon.com’sMechanicalTurk(MTurk),anonlineservicethat

matches”workers”with”requesters”whopostjobstobecompleted.Weuploaded

thevideorecordingstoallowonlineviewingandrecruited300MTurkjudgesin

total,or10separateindependentjudgespervideotape.Eachjudgewatchedasingle

group’sinteractioninitsentiretyandrankedeachofthefourgroupmembersin

theirassignedgrouponthesamecompetencemeasure.

Thecompetencerankingsmadebybothsetsofoutsidejudgescorrelated

highlywiththosemadebythegroupmembers,α=.71,indicatingthatgroup

members’perceptionsofeachother’scompetencecorrespondedtooutsidejudges’

perceptionsoftheircompetence.Thiscross‐judgeconsensushelpsaddressthe

concernthatgroupmember’sjudgmentswerebiased.Inlightofthisagreement

acrossthethreesetsofjudges,weaveragedthemtoformanaggregatemeasureof

observer‐perceivedcompetence.

Codesofbehavioralcues.Researchassistantswhowereblindtothe

researchquestionscodedparticipants’behavioralcues.Wefocusedon10separate


32

behavioralcues(withinter‐raterreliabilityinparentheses).Codersratedthe

percentageoftimeparticipantsspokeinthegroupdiscussion(α=.89,M=24.98,SD

=6.63),countedthenumberoftimesparticipantsofferedananswerbeforeanyone

else(α=.91,M=2.87,SD=2.47)andafteratleastoneanswerhadalreadybeen

provided(α=.84,M=10.84,SD=5.18),andprovidedinformationrelevanttothe

problem(α=.92,M=9.12,SD=6.33).Codersalsoratedwhethertheparticipant

hadaconfidentandfactualvocaltone(vs.uncertainandwaveringvocaltone;α=

.60,M=4.48,SD=1.52),seemedcalmandrelaxedornervousandanxious(α=.60,

M=1.88,SD=1.16),andwhetherthepersonshowedconstrictedpostureandtook

uplittlespaceorshowedexpandedpostureandtookupalotofspace(α=.67,M=

4.08,SD=1.26).Inaddition,coderscountedthenumberoftimestheparticipant

madeanexplicitstatementabouthisorherability(α=.81,M=.33,SD=.65),the

easeordifficultyofthetask(α=.92,M=.48,SD=1.05),andhisorhercertaintyin

hisorherestimate(α=.83,M=1.58,SD=2.19).

Results

ConsistentwiththefindingsfromStudies1through3,overconfident

individualswereperceivedbyothersasmorecompetent,r(118)=.29,p=.002.

Again,itisworthnotingthatthisindexofoverconfidencereflectsbiasinself‐

perceptions.Consequently,thecorrelationreflectstherelationshipbetween

positivebiasinself‐perceptionandothers’ratingsofone’sabilities.Drawingonthe

logicofBrunswik’s(1956)lensmodel,wenextexaminedwhichbehavioralcues

observersutilizedtomakeinferencesaboutparticipants’competenceandthe

degreetowhichoverconfidentindividualsdisplayedthosecues.


33

Cueutilization.Thecue‐utilizationcorrelationsintherightmostsideof

Table2reflecttherelationshipsbetweentheobservers’perceptionsofcompetence

andthebehavioralcuesparticipantsdisplayed.Thebehavioralcuesarepresented

indescendingorderofthemagnitudeoftheircue‐utilizationcorrelation.

Consistentwithexpectations,observersperceivedparticipantstobemore

competentwhenparticipantsspokemore,usedamoreconfidentandfactualvocal

tone,andprovidedmoreinformationrelevanttothegroup’sproblems.Infact,these

threecue‐utilizationcorrelationswerequitehigh,allabover=.50,suggesting

observersutilizethesecuesagreatdealwheninferringothers’competence.In

addition,observersperceivedparticipantstobecompetentwhenparticipants

exhibitedanexpandedposture,showedacalmandrelaxeddemeanor,offeredmore

answers(eitherfirstorafteranothergroupmemberhadalreadydoneso),and

mademorestatementsaboutthecertaintyoftheiranswers.Itisinterestingtonote

thatobserversdidnotutilizeatarget’sdirectstatementsofhisorherownabilityor

oftheeaseofthetask.Itseemsthatobserversreliedmoreheavilyonindirect

signalsofconfidence,suchasmorecontributionsandaconfidentnonverbal

demeanor,thanonexplicitstatementsofconfidence.

Cuedisplay.Thecorrelationsintheleft‐handsectionofTable2reflectthe

relationshipsbetweenparticipants’innercharacteristics–boththeir

overconfidenceandactualcompetence–andthebehavioralcuestheydisplayed.

Consistentwithourexpectations,overconfidentindividualstendedtodisplaymost

ofthebehavioralcuesutilizedbyobserverstoinfercompetence:Theyspokemore,

usedaconfidentandfactualvocaltone,providedmoreinformationrelevanttothe


34

problem,exhibitedacalmandrelaxeddemeanor,andofferedanswersfirst.

Althoughoverconfidentindividualsdidnotofferanswersafteranothergroup

memberhadalreadydoneso,thiswaslikelybecausetheyprovidedanswersfirst;

thosetwobehavioralcuescorrelatednegatively,r(128)=‐.33,p<.001.Theonly

surprisingnullcue‐displaycorrelationwasthusforexpandedposture.

Alonganexploratoryvein,wenextexaminedexplicitstatementsof

confidence.Overconfidentindividualsdidnotmakeexplicitstatementsabouttheir

ownabilities,theeaseofthetask,ortheircertaintyintheiranswers.Thesenon‐

significantfindingsareinteresting,givenpreviousfindingsthatsuggestsuchexplicit

statementscanleadtolowerlevelsofliking(Jones&Shrauger,1970).

Finally,itisinterestingtonotethatnoneofthecue‐displaycorrelationswere

significantforactualcompetence.Thissuggestscompetentindividualsdidnot

displaythebehavioralcuesthatsignalcompetencetoothersandmighthelpshed

lightonwhycompetenceissodifficulttodetectinothers(e.g.,Ames&Kammrath,

2004;Minsonetal.,2011).Ifindividualswhoareactuallycompetentdonotdisplay

thebehaviorsthatsignalcompetencetoothers,thenobserverswillhavedifficulty

recognizingtheircompetence.Infact,ouroverconfidenceindexpredictedthe

behavioralcuesmorestronglythandidtheindexofactualcompetence.

Overconfidentindividualsbehavedinwaysthatconveyedcompetencemore

convincinglythandidindividualswhoareactuallycompetent.

Summary.UsingaBrunswik(1956)lensmodelanalysis,wefoundthat

overconfidentindividualshaveabehavioralsignaturethat,toobservers,lookslike

actualcompetence.Thishelpsexplainwhyoverconfidentindividualsareseenby


35

othersascompetent,evenwhentheylackcompetence.Infact,overconfident

individualsmoreconvincinglydisplayedcompetencecuesthandidindividualswho

wereactuallycompetent.

Study5

Thusfar,wehaveprovidedevidencethatoverconfidentindividualsappear

morecompetenttoothersandattainhigherstatus.However,tosupportthe

argumentthatoverconfidencepervadesself‐perceptionbecauseofitsstatus

benefits,itisalsonecessarytoshowthatthedriveforstatusactuallypromotes

overconfidence.Study5thustestedwhetherindividualdifferencesinthedesirefor

statuspredictindividualdifferencesinoverconfidence.Ifsuchanassociationexists,

itwouldsuggestthatnotonlydoesoverconfidenceleadtosocialbenefits,butalso

thatthedesireforthosebenefitspromotesoverconfidence.

Fortunately,thereexistsawell‐establishedandwidelyusedself‐report

measurethatisappropriateforourneeds:Jackson’sneedfordominancemeasure

fromthePersonalityResearchForm(PRF;1999).Theneedfordominancerefersto

individualdifferencesinthedesiretooccupyrolesofprestige,influence,and

authority(Murray,1938);itemsonthemeasureaskindividualshowmuchthey

desiretobeinpositionsofhighstatus,andwishtohavecontrolandinfluencein

socialsituations.Wehypothesizedtheneedfordominancepredictsoverconfidence.

Wealsowantedtoruleoutanalternativeexplanation.Ifweweretofindan

associationbetweentheneedfordominanceandoverconfidence,itispossiblethat

thereisnothingspecialabouttheneedfordominanceorstatusperse;individuals

whoaremoremotivatedtosucceedingeneralmighttendtobemoreoverconfident.


36

Toruleoutthispossibility,wetestedwhethertheneedfordominanceuniquely

predictsoverconfidence,amongotherpotentiallyrelevantpsychologicalneeds.

Specifically,wefocusedontwoothermeasuresfromthePRF:theneedfor

affiliationandtheneedforachievement(Jackson,1999).Theneedforaffiliation

assessesthedegreetowhichindividualsdesiretoengageinsocialactivitiessuchas

partiesorcollaborativehobbies,havefriends,andmeetnewpeople.Theneedfor

achievementfocusesonhowmuchindividualsaspiretoachieveintheirfieldand

workhardtowardaccomplishingdifficultgoals.Wedidnotexpectthattheneedfor

affiliationwouldpredictoverconfidencebecause,accordingtocircumplexmodelsof

humanbehavior,statusandaffiliationconcernsareorthogonal(e.g.,Wiggins,1979).

Thedesiretoconnectwithothersshouldthusbeuncorrelatedwithself‐perceptions

ofexpertiseortaskcompetence.Wealsodidnotexpectthattheneedfor

achievementwouldpredictoverconfidence.Priorresearchsuggeststhatoverly

positiveself‐perceptionsmightnotfacilitateachievement(e.g.,Robins&Beer,

2001).Therefore,thosewhoseektoachievemightnotbemotivatedtoengagein

overconfidence;suchapracticewouldnotfurthertheirgoals.

Method

Participants.Oursampleincluded77individualsfromaroundtheUnited

States(60%male).Thedatawerecollectedonline,usingMTurk.Theaverageage

was36years(SD=11.39).Participantswereaskedtoselectallcategoriesthat

comprisedtheirethnicbackground;81.8%selectedWhite,6.5%selectedAfrican‐

American,3.9%selectedLatino,6.5%selectedAsian‐American,and1.3%selected

“other.”


37

Procedure.Participantsfirstcompletedmeasuresofdemographicand

individualdifferencevariables.Theywerethentoldtheywouldbeworkingwith

threeotherpeople,viaanon‐linechatroom,whowerealsocurrentlyparticipating

inthestudy.Beforeparticipantsweretojointhisostensiblegroup,however,they

completedaversionofthetaskindividually.Theindividualtaskinvolved10trials.

Foreachtrial,theyestimatedtheaverageoftheseventwo‐digitnumbers

simultaneouslydisplayedfortwoseconds.Aftercompletingalltentrials,they

estimatedtheirabilitiesonthetask.Finally,participantsweretoldtherewould

actuallybenogrouptask,thanked,anddebriefed.

Theneedsfordominance,affiliation,andachievement.Jackson’s

PersonalResearchForm(PRF;Jackson,1999)includesavarietyofneedsscales,

eachcontaining20statementsthatareratedaseither“true”or“false.”Wecoded

answersindicatingweakerorstrongerdesireas1and2,respectively.Theneedfor

dominancescaleshowedhighinternalreliability(α=.90,M=1.52,SD=0.31),as

didtheneedforaffiliation(α=.86,M=1.41,SD=0.28)andneedforachievement(α

=.76,M=1.63,SD=0.22)measures.

BigFivepersonalitydimensions.AsinStudy2,wecontrolledfor

extraversionandneuroticismbecausethesevariableshavebothbeenlinkedto

overconfidence(Schaeferetal.,2004)andtotheattainmentofstatus(Andersonet

al.,2001).Weagainusedthe44‐itemBigFiveInventory(BFI;Benet‐Martinez&

John,1998;John&Srivastava,1999).AllfiveBFIscalesshowedinternal

consistency,includingextraversion(α=.88,M=2.83,SD=0.85),agreeableness(α=

.85,M=3.77,SD=0.64),conscientiousness(α=.88,M=3.70,SD=0.72),


38

neuroticism(α=.87,M=2.85,SD=0.80),andopenness(α=.80,M=3.70,SD=

0.60).

Overconfidence.Afterparticipantscompleted10trialsofthenumberstask,

theylearnedthatananswerwouldcountascorrectifitfellwithinfivepointsofthe

actualanswer.Theywereaskedtoestimatetheirpercentilerankrelativetothe

otherparticipantsinthestudy,usingthesamescalefromStudies1and2(M=

54.18,SD=25.02).Wealsoaskedthemwheretheythoughttheywouldrank(in

termsofhowmanyquestionstheyansweredcorrectly)amongthefour‐person

groupinwhichtheywereabouttowork.Theyansweredusingascaleof1(thebest

inmygroup)to4(theworstinmygroup),M=2.56,SD=0.79.Wethenreverse‐

scoredthismeasuresuchthathigherscoresindicatedbetterrelativeperformance.

Asexpected,thesetwoself‐perceptionsofrelativeabilitycorrelatedhighlywith

eachother,r(75)=.70,p<.001.

Wescoredparticipants’actualperformanceonthetaskusingthemethod

describedtothem(M=4.79,SD=2.10).Wethentransformedtheirperformance

scoresintopercentilerankingstoallowustoscoreoverplacement.Inaddition,

althoughwedidnotactuallyassignparticipantstogroups,wewantedtoestimate

whatparticipants’rankwouldhavebeeniftheyhadbeenassignedtogroups.We

thusbrokeallparticipantsupintogroupsoffour,accordingtothetimeinwhich

theyparticipated,andrankedthemwithineachgroup.Thetwomeasuresofactual

rankinrelativeperformancecorrelatedhighlywitheachother,r(75)=.77,p<.001.

AsinStudies1and2,weregressedparticipants’self‐perceivedrankontheir

actualrank,andthenretainedtheresidual–forboththeirself‐perceivedpercentile


39

rankrelativetoallotherparticipants,andtheirself‐perceivedrankrelativeto

participantswithwhomtheywouldhavebeenassignedtoagroup.Thesetwo

measuresofoverconfidencecorrelatedhighlywitheachother,α=.81,r(75)=.68,p

<.001,andthuswecombinedthem.


Asimultaneousregressionequationwiththeeightpredictors,includingthe

threeneedmeasuresandallBigFivedimensions,appearsinTable3.Asshown,out

ofalltheindependentvariables,theneedfordominancewastheonlysignificant

predictorofoverconfidenceandthelinkbetweentheneedfordominanceand

overconfidencewassubstantial,withastandardizedbetaof.42.Thissuggeststhat

individualswhomorestronglydesiredpositionsofhigherstatusandinfluence

tendedtobemoreoverconfidentintheirtaskabilities.

Incontrast,theneedforaffiliationdidnotpredictoverconfidence.Therefore,

desiringstrongerconnectionswithothersdidnotleadtoastrongertendencyto

engageinoverconfidence.Perhapsmorenoteworthy,themotivationtoachievealso

didnotpredictoverconfidenceinone’staskabilities.Itseemsthatthedesirefor

socialsuccess,butnotnecessarilythedesirefortasksuccessperse,predicted

overconfidence.Finally,itisalsoimportanttonotethattherelationbetweenthe

needfordominanceandoverconfidenceremainedsignificantaftercontrollingforall

otherdimensions,includingpersonalitydimensions.

Study6

Study6furthertestedtheideathatthedesireforstatusdrives

overconfidence,andmakestwokeycontributionsoverandabovetheotherfive


40

studieswereport.First,Study6employedanexperimentaldesignandmanipulated

thedesireforstatus.Itusedanestablishedprocedurethatasksparticipantsto

imagineworkingforaprestigiouscompanyandaspiringtomoveupthehierarchy

(Griskeviciusetal.,2009).Wethenaskedparticipantstheirself‐perceived

percentilerankingonahostofdimensionsrelatedtoattainingstatusinabusiness

context.Wereasonedthatthroughrandomassignment,participantsineach

experimentalconditionwouldnotdifferfromeachotherinactualskillsandabilities

relevanttobusinesscontexts.Therefore,anydifferencesinself‐perceivedabilities

wouldbeduetothestatusmanipulation,ratherthandifferencesinactualabilities.

Second,althoughthereisconsistencyacrosscontextsinthepersonal

characteristicsthatleadtohigherstatus(Lordetal.,1986),thosecharacteristicscan

varymarkedlyfromonegrouptoanother(Anderson,Spataro,&Flynn,2008).For

example,quantitativeskillswilllikelybemoreimportanttoattainingstatusina

groupofengineersthaninafraternity.Thissuggeststhatbeingoverconfidenton

dimensionsthatleadtostatusinonecontextwillnotnecessarilyhelpindividuals

attainstatusinanothercontext(e.g.,Andersonetal.,2008).Beingoverconfidentin

one’squantitativeskillswouldnothelponeattainstatusinafraternity(andinfact

mighthurtone’sstatus).Therefore,apersuasivedemonstrationwouldshowthat

thedesireforstatusinagivencontextleadstooverconfidenceprimarilyon

dimensionsthatfacilitatestatusattainmentinthatcontext,butnotondimensions

thatdonotleadtostatusattainmentinthatcontext.


41

Method

Participants.Oursampleincluded68individualsfromaroundtheUnited

States(59%male).WerecruitedtheseparticipantsonlineviaMTurk.Theaverage

agewas33years(SD=10.16).Participantswereaskedtoselectallcategoriesthat

comprisedtheirethnicbackground;82.4%selectedWhite,4.4%selectedAfrican‐

American,2.9%selectedLatino,8.8%selectedAsian‐American,and1.5%selected

“other.”

Designandprocedure.Thestudyhadtwobetween‐participantconditions,

astatus‐motiveinductionandacontrolcondition,whichwerebasedonprevious

research(Griskeviciusetal.,2009;Griskeviciusetal.,2010),andtwowithin‐

participantconditions,business‐relevantandirrelevantpersonalcharacteristics.All

participantsfirstcompletedmeasuresofdemographicvariables.Theywerethen

askedtoreadastoryandimaginethemselvesinthescenarioandfeeltheemotions

andfeelingsthatthepersonisexperiencing.Participantsinthestatusconditionread

astoryinwhichtheyweremotivatedtoattainstatusinaworkcontext.Participants

inthecontrolconditionreadastoryinwhichtheylostandthenfoundtheirwallet.

Finally,participantsreportedtheirpercentilerankingonahostofability

dimensions,someofwhichwererelevanttoattainingstatusintheworkcontext

describedinthestatusprime,andsomeofwhichwereirrelevant.Acheckattheend

ofthestudyshowedthatnoparticipantcorrectlyguessedthenatureofthestudyor

itshypotheses.

Statusandcontrolprimes.Inthestatusprime,participantsreadashort

storyofabout400wordsthatwasadaptedfromanestablishedstatusmotive


42

manipulation(Griskeviciusetal.,2009;Griskeviciusetal.,2010).Inthestory,

participantsimaginethattheyrecentlygraduatedfromcollegeanddecidedtowork

foraprestigiouscompany.Thejobpayswellandoffersthemthechancetoascend

thehierarchy.Ontheirfirstdayatwork,theirbosssaysthatiftheydowell,theywill

beputonthe“fasttrack”tothetop.6Thecontrolprimewasalsobasedon

Griskeviciusetal.(2009),andaskedparticipantstoimaginebeingathomeand

realizingthattheirwalletismissing.Theysearchforthewalletandthestoryends

asthepersonfindsit.

Toensuretheadaptedstatusprimeelicitedthedesireforstatus,wepilot‐

testedbothprimesonaseparategroupofparticipants.Forty‐fourparticipantsread

eitherthestatusorthecontrolprimeandthenratedtheextenttowhichthey

desiredhighersocialstatus,regard,prestige,andrespectfromothers(α=.87).To

ensurethestatusprimeelicitedadesireforstatusspecifically,butnotadesirefor

bettersocialstandingingeneral,participantsalsoratedtheextenttowhichthey

desiredtobelong:tobelikedbyothers,acceptedbyothers,andincludedinsocial

groups(α=.87).Relativetothecontrolstory,thestatusstoryelicitedastronger

desireforstatusona1–7scale(5.85vs.5.12;p=.033)butnotastrongerdesireto

belong(5.79vs.5.39,p=.200).

Self‐perceivedcompetence.Weaskedparticipantstoratetheirpercentile

rankingon15skillsandabilitiesthatseemedrelevanttoattaininghigherstatusin

workcontexts.Wefocusedontask‐relatedskills(intelligence,analyticalabilities,

criticalthinkingskills,problemsolvingskills,innovativeness,generalmental

abilities,abilitytofocus,multi‐taskingskills,creativity),aswellassocial‐emotional


43

skills(socialskills,abilitytoworkinteams,managingconflict,handlingstress,

maskingemotions).Wealsoaskedparticipantstoranktheirpercentileonsixskills

andabilitiesthatseemedirrelevanttoattainingstatusinworkcontexts(driving

ability,athletics,generalhand‐eyecoordination,generalphysicalreflexes,musical

ability,artisticskills).The15business‐relevantskillscorrelatedwitheachother(α

=.85)asdidthesixirrelevantskills(α=.70).

Toestablishthatthebusiness‐relevantskillswouldbedeemedmorerelevant

toattainingstatusinthatcontextthantheirrelevantskills,wepilottestedall

dimensionsonaseparatesampleof44participants.(Thissamplewasdistinctfrom

theotherpilot‐testsampledescribedabove.)Theseparticipantsreadthestatus

primestoryandwereaskedtorateeachoftheskillsandabilitiesonascalefrom1

(unimportanttoperformingintheworkcontextdescribedabove)to7(extremely

importanttoperformingintheworkcontextdescribedabove).Afactoranalysis

showedthatthebusiness‐relevantskillsallloadedontothefirstfactor,andthe

irrelevantskillsallloadedontootherfactors.Wethuscombinedall15business‐

relevantskills(α=.97)andthencombinedallirrelevantskills(α=.72).As

expected,thebusiness‐relevantskills(M=5.99)wereseenasmorerelevantto

attainingstatusthantheirrelevantskills(M=2.80,p<.001).


Wesubmittedtheself‐perceivedcompetenceaggregatestoa2x2mixed‐

modelANOVAinwhichprime(desireforstatusvs.control)servedasthebetween‐

participantsfactorandskillrelevance(relevantvs.irrelevanttotheprimecontext)

servedasthewithin‐participantsfactor.Therewasnomaineffectforprime


44

condition,F(1,66)=0.23,p=.636,buttherewasamaineffectforskillrelevanceF

(1,66)=89.78,withindividualsperceivingthemselvestohavesuperiorwork‐

relevantskills(M=70.47,SD=10.95)thanirrelevantskills(M=54.63,SD=17.14).

Moregermanetoourhypotheses,however,wastheemergenceofa

significantinteractionbetweenprimeconditionandskillrelevance,F(1,66)=5.03,

p=.028.Specifically,individualsinducedtodesirestatusperceivedthemselvesto

possesshigherbusiness‐relevantskills(M=72.89,SD=12.24)thanindividualsin

thecontrolcondition(M=67.73,SD=8.67),t(66)=2.02,p=.047,butnottohave

higherskillsirrelevanttothebusinesscontext(M=53.57,SD=18.75)thanthosein

thecontrolcondition(M=55.80,SD=15.34),t(66)=.53,p=.595,ns.Therefore,the

effectofthestatusprimewasstrongerononlythoseskillsandabilitiesrelevantto

attainstatusinthebusinesscontext.Inducingthedesireforstatususingabusiness‐

relatedprimedidnotmakeparticipantsmoreconfidentonskillsandabilitiesthat

wereirrelevanttothebusinesscontext.

GeneralDiscussion

SummaryofFindings

Insixstudieswetestedastatus‐enhancementaccountofoverconfidence,

whichproposesthatoverconfidencebiasesself‐judgmentbecauseithelps

individualsattainhigherstatus.Insupport,wefoundthat(a)overconfident

individualswereperceivedbyothersasmorecompetentand,inturn,afforded

higherstatus,(b)overconfidentindividualsdisplayedthebehaviorsthatareusedby

otherstoinfercompetence,and(c)thedesireforstatus–bothnaturallyoccurring

andexperimentallyinduced–leadtohigherlevelsofoverconfidence.


45

Thecurrentstudieshadanumberofstrengths.First,thedatawereextensive,

involving1172individualstotal:664participants,519ofwhominteractedindyads

orgroups,inadditionto420independentjudgesand88pilottestparticipants.The

studiesalsousedawidearrayofdatasources,includingself‐report,operational

indices,peer‐ratings,independentjudgmentsbyoutsidejudges,andbehavioral

codesbytrainedcoders.Finally,thestudiesuseddiversedesigns,includingdyadic,

group,laboratory,field,short‐termandlonger‐term,correlationalandexperimental.

Therewerealsolimitationstothestudies.First,wecannotknowwith

certaintywhetheroverconfidentindividualstrulybelievedthattheywerehighly

competent,orwhethertheyweremerelyreportingwhattheywishedtobelieve.

However,vonHippelandTrivers(2011)reviewedfindingssuggestingthat

overconfidenceemergesunconsciously,withoutintentorawareness.Second,our

studieswereconductedprimarilyinthelaboratory,whichmightlimittheir

ecologicalvalidity.Itispossiblethatthesamefindingsmightnotemergein“real

world”contextswherethestakesarehigher.Therefore,futureresearchshould

explorethisissuebyexaminingnaturallyoccurringcontexts.

TheoreticalContributions

Thecurrentfindingsmaketwoprimarycontributionstotheliteratureon

overconfidence.First,theyspeaktotheoriginsofoverconfidence.Morespecifically,

humansmighthavethetendencytoformfalseself‐beliefsbecausedoingsohelps

convinceothersoftheirpositivevalue.Someintriguingrecenttheoriesspeculate

abouttheevolutionaryoriginsofcognitivebiases(Haselton&Nettle,2006)and

socialroleofoverconfidence(Johnson&Fowler,2011);ourstudiesprovidesomeof


46

thefirstempiricalinvestigationsofthepossiblesocialbasesofoverconfidence.In

addition,overconfidencehasbeenwidelyconsideredanimpedimenttoindividual

success(Dunningetal.,2004).Thecurrentfindingssuggestthattheeffectsof

overconfidencearelikelymorenuancedandcanhavebenefitsaswellascosts.

Ourfindingsalsohaveanumberofimportanttheoreticalimplicationsforthe

statusliterature.Forexample,onecommonlyaskedquestionaboutthosewho

possessstatusis,doestheirbehaviorreflecttheirpositionsortheirpreexisting

personalities?Forexample,inthecaseofnarcissisticCEOs(Chatterjee&Hambrick,

2007),didtheirstatusmakethemmorenarcissisticordidtheirnarcissismhelp

themriseinthehierarchy?Withregardtooverconfidence,ourfindingssuggestthat

theanswermightbe“both.”Higherrankmightleadtoinflatedself‐perceptions(e.g.,

Pfeffer,Cialdini,Hanna,&Knopoff,1998;Sachdev&Bourhis,1987),but

overconfidentindividualsarealsomorelikelytoattainstatusinthefirstplace.

FutureDirections

Thecurrentfindingsgenerateanumberofquestionsforfutureresearch.

First,acriticalissueforfutureresearchistounderstandtheboundaryconditions

fortheeffectsweobservedhere.Whenwilloverconfidenceleadtosocialbenefits

suchastheonesweobservedandwhenwillitnot?Also,inStudies1,2,and3,we

didnotfindanyevidenceforacurvilinearrelationbetweenoverconfidenceand

statusattainment.However,curvilineareffectsarenotoriouslydifficulttoobtain,

duetolackofstatisticalpower(McClelland&Judd,1993).Itisthusimportantthat

futureresearchexaminethisissuefurther.Finally,itisimportanttotestthese


47

hypothesesinothercultures,wheretheeffectsofoverconfidencemightdiffer

(Heine,Lehman,Markus,&Kitayama,1999).

Weconcludebynotingtheimportanceofexamininghowsocialstatusis

afforded.Thoseindividualsamonguswhoareelevatedtopositionsofstatuswield

undueinfluence,haveaccesstomoreresources,getbetterinformation,andenjoya

varietyofbenefits.Oneofthemostbasicquestionsforstudentsofhumansocial

groups,organizations,andsocieties,isthequestionofhowweselectindividualsfor

positionsofstatus.Althoughwemayseektochoosewisely,weareoftenforcedto

relyonproxiesforability,suchasindividuals’confidence.Insodoing,we,asa

society,createincentivesforthosewhowouldseekstatustodisplaymore

confidencethantheiractualabilitymerits.Theideathatoverconfidencemight

pervadehumanself‐perceptionbecauseofitssocialbenefitsgeneratesnew

hypothesesanddirectionsforfutureresearch.


48

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Footnotes1.Priorresearchhasdistinguishedvariousformsofoverconfidence(Moore&Healy,

2008).Wefocusedonoverplacement,whichinvolvesoverestimatingone’srankin

abilityrelativetoothers,becauseindividuals’statusisbasedonperceivedabilities

relativetoothers(Bergeretal.,1972;Ridgeway,1984).

2.Theuseofdifferencescoreshasbeenwidelycriticizedbecausedifferencescores

areunreliableandtendtobeconfoundedwithvariablesthatcomprisetheindex

(e.g.,Cohen,Cohen,West,&Aiken,2003;Cronbach&Furby,1970).Scholarssuggest

regressingparticipants’actualperformanceontotheirself‐evaluationsandretaining

theresidualsoftheself‐evaluations(e.g.,John&Robins,1994).

3.Thephotographedtargetsandthedataforeachtarget’s“true”personalitywere

obtainedfromDanielAmes.Eachtarget’s“truescore”wastheaverageratingmade

bytheselfandeightknowledgeableinformants.

4.Theaccuracyandover‐claimingindexeswerecalculatedusingstandardsignal

detectionformulas(Macmillan&Creelman,1991).Wefirstcalculatedthe“hit”rate

astheproportionofthe48realitemsonwhichtherespondentclaimedfamiliarity

(aresponseabove0onthefamiliarityscale).Similarly,wecalculatedthe“false‐

alarm”rateasthecorrespondingproportionofthe12foilsonwhichtherespondent

claimedfamiliarity.Fromthesehitandfalse‐alarmrates,twoindexeswere

calculatedforeachrespondent:Theaccuracyindexwasdprime(thez‐transformed

hitrateminusthez‐transformedfalsealarmrate),andtheover‐claimingindexwas

thecriterionlocation(theaverageofthez‐transformedhitandfalsealarmrates).


67

5.Providingfeedbackaboutpercentilerankwouldhavemeantprovidingsomein

theoverconfidentconditionoverlynegativefeedback(e.g.,tellingpeoplewhoscored

abovethe98thpercentilethattheyscoredinthe95thpercentile).Pilottestsshowed

thatfeedbackaboutabsoluteperformanceeffectivelymanipulatedoverplacement.

6.Wemodifiedtheoriginalstorytoavoidtwopotentialconfounds.First,toavoid

inducingcompetitivefeelingsmoregenerally,wedeletedapartthatspokeofa

competitionforpromotionwithothernewlyhiredemployees.Second,toavoid

directlypriminghigherlevelsofconfidence,wedeletedapartthatspokeaboutthe

protagonisttryingtoboosthisorherconfidence.


68

Table1.

Study2.CoefficientsforRegressionModelsCorrespondingtoEffectofOverconfidence

onPeer‐RatedStatusandPeer‐AssignedGrade.

Status

Grade

B

SEB

B

SEB

Overconfidence

.32*

.07

.08*

.03

Accuracy .27* .05 .06* .02Optimism ‐.01 .03 ‐.01 .01TraitDominance ‐.02 .03 ‐.02 .01Extraversion .04 .06 .01 .02Neuroticism ‐.01 .06 ‐.02 .02 *p<.01


69

Table2Study4.TheBehavioralSignatureofOverconfidence:ABrunswik(1956)LensModelAnalysis

Cue‐displaycorrelations

Cue‐utilizationcorrelations

Overconfidence

Actual

Competence

Behavioralcue("lens")

Observer‐perceivedcompetence

.25** .17 Percentoftimespoke .59**.29** .13 Confidentandfactualvocaltone .54**.19* .03 Providedinformationrelevanttoproblem .51**.00 .15 Expandedposture .37**.22* .02 Calmandrelaxeddemeanor .34**‐.10 .16 Offeredananswerlater .24*.27** ‐.04 Offeredananswerfirst .21*.17 .12 Statementsofcertaintyinestimate .21*.07 .10 Statementsabouteaseordifficultyoftask .18‐.14 ‐.06 Statementsaboutone’sowncompetence .09

*p<.05,two‐tailed. **p<.01,two‐tailed.

STATUS-ENHANCEMENT ACCOUNT OF OVERCONFIDENCE 0

Table3

Study5:NeedforDominancePredictsOverconfidence

Variable

b

SE

β

t

(Constant) ‐1.45 1.55 ‐0.94

NeedforDominance 1.22 0.46 .42 2.64*

NeedforAffiliation 0.22 0.60 .07 0.37

NeedforAchievement ‐0.11 0.58 ‐.03 ‐0.19

Extraversion ‐0.26 0.21 ‐.25 ‐1.25

Agreeableness 0.06 0.20 .04 0.27

Conscientiousness 0.17 0.17 .14 1.01

Neuroticism ‐0.05 0.16 ‐.05 ‐0.32

Openness ‐0.13 0.19 ‐.08 ‐0.68

Note.Statisticsappearinginboldrepresenttestsofourhypotheses.*p=.010.


Figure1.Partner‐ratedknowledgemediatedtherelationshipbetween

overconfidenceandstatusinthedyad(Study1).


Figure2.Participantsprovidedwithoverlypositiveperformancefeedback,who

engagedinoverconfidence,wereperceivedasmorecompetentbytheirpartners

thanparticipantsprovidedwithaccurateperformancefeedback,whomore

accuratelyperceivedtheirability(Study3).


Figure3.Brunswik’s(1956)lensmodel.

CueDisplay CueUtilization

InnerCharacteristic

(e.g.,agreeableness)

“Lens”

Cue3(e.g.,furrowed

brows)

Cue2(e.g.,frown)

Cue1(e.g.,smile)

ObserverJudgment(e.g.,ratingoftarget’s

agreeableness)

Inferenceoftarget’sinnercharacteristic

in press, journal of personality and social...

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