8/2/2019 In Sen GOP Primary Survey Polling Memorandum 4-26-2012

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P O L L I N G M E M O R A N D U M

FR: Fritz Wenzel, President, Wenzel Strategies Research

RE: Survey of Likely Republican Primary Election voters in Indiana

The latest Wenzel Strategies survey of likely Republican Primary Election voters shows thatchallenger Richard Mourdock has moved ahead of longtime incumbent Richard Lugar and now leads by a44% to 39% margin. The results show the candidates have switched places since a similar WenzelStrategies survey in mid-March found Lugar holding a six-point lead over Mourdock.

Overall, 17% of the respondents said they were yet unsure for whom they would vote.

Mourdock leads among TEA Party conservatives by a 63% to 24% margin over Lugar. Thesurvey shows TEA Party conservatives are the largest philosophical voting bloc in Indiana, comprising 36%of the GOP electorate. Moderates, who comprise 17% of the Republican electorate, give Lugar the leadby a 61% to 27% margin. The race is close among traditional conservatives, with Lugar holding a 46% to39% lead.

Mourdocks favorability among Indianas Republican primary voters has improved by sevenpoints since the earlier survey, moving from 31% to 38%. His unfavorability rating has also increasedfrom 19% to 28%.

Meanwhile, Lugars favorability has dropped nine points, from 53% six weeks ago to 44% today.

Also, Lugars unfavorability rating has increased nine points, a substantial swing considering Lugarslong tenure in public office.

Interestingly, the percentage of those who said they were firm in their choice for the Republicannomination for U.S. Senate has remained essentially unchanged over the last six weeks, as 51% in thisnew survey said they were firm in their choice, compared to 50% who said the same thing in last months

poll. One in four respondents in this new survey said they were very open to changing their mind.

Republican voters said they were mostly upbeat about the current overall state of affairs inIndiana, as 64% said they believed things were generally headed in the right direction. Another 21% saidthey felt things were off on the wrong track, while 15% said they were not sure.

Wenzel Strategies conducted a telephone survey using live operators of likely Republican Primary Election voters statewidein Indiana. The survey was conducted April 24-25, 2012, and included 601 respondents. The survey carries a margin of

error of +/- 3.97 percentage points.

6. If the election for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senator from Indiana was today, and the candidates wereRichard Mourdock and Richard Lugar, for whom would you vote?

Q6-BALLOT TEST

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

Valid

MOURDOCK 265 44.1 44.1 44.1

LUGAR 235 39.1 39.1 83.2

NOT SURE 101 16.8 16.8 100.0

Total 601 100.0 100.0