in the european unioneiwf.eu/socdial/ei/2014/infrastructure first-bostan-08052014.pdf · •each...
TRANSCRIPT
Infrastructure first
The benefits, design and financing of a CO2 transport and storage infrastructure
in the European Union
Mike BostanPolicy OfficerEURACOAL
Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee for EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRY Working Group Meeting on 8 May 2014Bruxelles
Overview of the paper
• Underlying theme: wealth creation
• chapter 2: why the energy system is fundamental to the
competitiveness of the EU economy
• chapter 3: EU climate and energy policy – security of supply,
economic development, environmental sustainability
• chapter 4: Options for a low emissions economy
• chapter 5: the need for a CCS infrastructure
• chapter 6: conclusions and recommendations – CCS
infrastructure offers the chance to balance policy objectives
at an affordable cost
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide 1
1. Why a CCS Infrastructure
Europe needs industry, for several reasons:
• each additional job in manufacturing creates 0.5-2 jobs
in other sectors
• each euro of final added demand generates 50 cents of
additional demand in other sectors of economy
• declining manufacturing erodes knowledge and the
technology base for the whole economy
• the European Union has a competitive advantage in
many industrial sectors
Source: European Commission, Competitiveness Report 2013
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide 2
1. Why a CCS Infrastructure
Source: Eurostat, 2013
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide 3
1. Why a CCS Infrastructure
• All industries use energy, with different shares, from 5% for motor vehicles to
21% in chemicals and 32% for basic metals. Mining is around 7%.
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide 4
1. Why a CCS Infrastructure
• Current energy policies, which aim to reduce the GHG emissions are focusing almost exclusively on renewables
• For example, the effectiveness of the German energy policy is heavily contested by IHS and EFI
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide 5
1. Why a CCS Infrastructure
Source: GCCSI, 2011
• A study looking for a low-carbon economy shows that CCS (coal/gas) is
cheaper than offshore wind and PV (GCCSI, 2011)
• A similar study find that costs for a coal-fired power plant with CCS
increase between £335 and £900/kW, still LOWER than offshore wind
(UKERC, 2012)
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide 6
2. Value for industry
• No value for CO2
• Risks related to CO2 price:
Government/ policies might change
Future carbon prices may not make future CCS projects commercially viable
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide 7
3. Shape of CCS Infrastructure
• Several ways to transport CO2
• But pipelines prevail
• Already substantial experience
• Can follow routes of already
established gas/oil networks
• Effective way to use clusters
• Most environmentally-friendly
method
Source: Element Energy 2010
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide 8
3. Economies of scale• the larger the capacity of the system being developed, the lower the fixed
costs associated with running the project, hence a lower cost-per-unit-
capacity
• the cost of providing each additional unit of capacity for new operators
decreases, therefore a lower marginal cost of capacity (National Grid,
2013)
+
• reduced barriers to entry
• reduces community and environmental disruption
• creates and protects industry and employment
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide 9
3. Economies of scale
The nature of investments for pipelines has specific risks:
• The pipelines are locked-in physically to a specific location between
the carbon collecting point and the storage point.
• It is specific to the output of the field and has little, or no value in
alternative use once the carbon collecting point is turned off or the
storage field is depleted.
• Both the pipeline operator and the emitting company are depending
on each other for mutual gains
private investment unlikely and inefficient (due to commercial
pressures, economies of scale will be disregarded) (BERR, 2007)
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide 10
3. Costs
• European Commission puts
forward the figure of 2.5 bn EUR for
2000 km of CO2 pipelines
(JRC data)
• Other studies (ARUP, 2010
for DG Energy) suggest 2 bn EUR
for 6800 km of CO2 pipelines
Source: JRC, The evolution of the extent and the
investment requirements of a trans-European CO2
transport network, 2010, p.7
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide 11
3. Costs
Source: ICF International, 2009
• Cost of pipelines is relatively low in comparison with other parts of the CCS chain
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide 12
5. Public or private investment?
Substantial risks for private developers:
• Technology and construction risks (cost overruns, delays,
performance risks)
• Contractual and integration risks (dependency on others)
• Uncertainty around CCS policy
• Obsolescence risks
• CO2 storage risks (reluctance to take on extremely long-term
liability)
Government support for CO2 pipelines needed. Kick starting for private investment.
Source: Insight Economics, 2011
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide13
6. Analogue with the gas sector
STUDY CASE: UK natural gas pipelines
• 1960-mid 1980s: gas infrastructure under nationalized governance with the Gas Council as the dominant actor. The introduction of the North Sea gas in the late 1960s contributed as well to new interconnections, storage and new control technologies
• after mid 1980s: only after the network was fairly developed, privatisation and market liberalisation took place.
Source: Arapostathis et al, 2011
Source: UKERC, 2011
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide 14
7. Cluster proposals
Several projects already planned:
• Rotterdam
• Humber
Source: GCCSI, 2011
Red dots = CO2 sources
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide 15
8. Conclusions
• CCS is the most affordable and reliable solution to tackle
both high energy prices and environmental concerns.
• Private investment will not follow CCS due to high risks and
uncertainties.
• Government intervention in the form of CCS infrastructure
will act as a “catalyst” for CCS development. Several large
projects of CCS infrastructure would be enough to show
government commitment.
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide 16
Thank you!
Questions?
Mike Bostan, EURACOAL
8 May 2014, Extractive Industries Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee– Slide 17