increasing wind energy penetration t hrough improved forecasting
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Increasing Wind Energy Penetration t hrough Improved Forecasting. Mrinal Kumar Assistant Professor, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering University of Florida http://www.mae.ufl.edu/~mrinalkumar [email protected]. Revisiting Sustainability. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Increasing Wind Energy Penetrationthrough Improved Forecasting
Mrinal KumarAssistant Professor, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
University of Florida
http://www.mae.ufl.edu/[email protected]
Revisiting Sustainability
• “Sustainability” as a model for development was first proposed in 1969
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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMICSOCIAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
In theory…
ECONOMIC
SOCIAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
In reality…
Revisiting Sustainability
ECONOMICSOCIAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
In theory…
ECONOMIC
SOCIAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
What we must do…
Revisiting Sustainability
According to the EPA:
Sustainability is based on a simple principle: Everything that we need for our survival and well-being depends, either directly or indirectly, on our natural environment. Sustainability creates and maintains the conditions under which humans and nature can exist in productive harmony, that permit fulfilling the social, economic and other requirements of present and future generations.
Revisiting Sustainability
According to the EPA:
Sustainability is based on a simple principle: Everything that we need for our survival and well-being depends, either directly or indirectly, on our natural environment. Sustainability creates and maintains the conditions under which humans and nature can exist in productive harmony, that permit fulfilling the social, economic and other requirements of present and future generations.
Revisiting Sustainability
The Lowdown on Wind EnergyAccording to the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA):
“Without doubt wind power has become a pillar of energy systems in many countries and is recognized as a reliable and affordable source
of electricity”
The Lowdown on Wind Energy
China overtook the US in total installed capacity in 2010
About 55% of total installed capacity in world is in Eastern Europe
About 55% of new installed capacity (~past 2 years) is in Asia
For some perspective, it is important to add in the “size” of the country as well
The Lowdown on Wind Energy
Wind Electricity Capacity Normalized by Country Size:
#12
#30 (!)
There is tremendous potential for increasing the penetration of wind power in the US
If the entire world had the same turbine density (pu area) as Denmark, the world production of electricity would be 12,000 GW: far more than the entire world’s needs…
??
FACTS from the WWEA Reports (2010-2012):
o About 3% of global electricity demand is supplied by wind power
o 100 countries and regions use wind power for electricity generation
o Factoring in the size of the country, USA ranks 20th in installed capacity per unit gross GDP, 12th in capacity per person and 30th in capacity per unit land area
o Smaller countries have shown incredible progress given their resources
o Policy uncertainty in major markets, notably the US represent the biggest barrier in increased penetration of wind power
o It will be crucial to move renewable energy to the center of the debate at UN Climate Change Conferences
The Lowdown on Wind Energy
Six major drivers for mid-term and long termprospects of wind power
1. Ongoing debate on climate change, search for emission free technologies
2. Depletion of fossil and nuclear fuels
3. Role Models: Increasing number of regions and countries demonstrating that 100% renewable energy is possible
4. Increasing awareness of the hazards of nuclear power, e.g. Fukushima
5. Contribution of wind energy to the “three pillars” of sustainability, namely ecologically, economically and socially
6. Further technological developments, e.g. forecasting, storage
The Lowdown on Wind Energy
COAL NATURAL GAS NUCLEAR HYDRO WIND ALL OTHER
0
500
1000
1500
2000Net Generation (GWH)
42%25%
19% 8%3% 3%
Share of Electricity Generation Sources: USA
Denmark leads the world with 21% wind share
Wind share in US is approximately same as world average
Potential for Wind Derived Electricity: USA
USA DENMARK
Ongoing ProjectProject Title: An Integrated Hybrid Forecasting Framework of Increased Wind
Power Penetration
Funded by: NSF
Grant Type: CAREER Grant
Duration: Feb 2013 – Jan 2018 (5 YEARS)
PI: Mrinal Kumar, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
Proposed Outreach Activities:
Sustainable Energy Professional Development Program (with CPET) Renewable Energy Design Challenge (with CPET)
Project DetailsMain technical challenges in harnessing wind energy:
o Wind flow is highly unpredictable due to inherent uncertaintieso Electricity storage is inefficient and still impractical
Objective of project: To develop the next generation of forecasting algorithms for accurate characterization of uncertainty in wind
Importance of project: Will help reduce the risk associated with wind, thereby
facilitating its reliable integration in the electricity grid
Project DetailsHOW DOES THE ELECTRICITY MARKET WORK?
How does the power grid work?
A basic electrical circuitsrpnet.com
Yet another circuit: though much more complex…
power source
load
Project DetailsHOW DOES THE ELECTRICITY MARKET WORK?
How does the power grid work? The power grid is basically one large electrical circuit
Power source is the generation side (coal, wind, etc) ≈ SUPPLY Power load is the consumer side (residential, commercial etc) ≈ DEMAND
SUPPLY must continuously match DEMAND (else outages occur)
Large scale STORAGE is INFEASIBLE
Power must therefore be generated real time RELIABILITY is CRUCIAL
Wind is inherently INTERMITTENT how to integrate it in grid with LOW RISK??
Electricity trading done by placing bids, e.g. DAY-AHEAD MARKET
Project: Technical Modules
MODELING of Wind Dynamics: Turbulence Orography, terrain roughness Local farm effects, e.g. shadowing
UNCERTAINTY CHARACTERIZATION: Nonlinear non-Gaussian uncertainty quantification High dimensional Fokker-Planck solvers Randomized Markov chain particle algorithms
INTEGRATION with Wind Farm data: Incorporate real data into analysis Collaborate with wind farms, NCAR and NREL
KEY: Increase reliability by improved forecasting
Project: Technical ModulesUncertainty in physical systems: a simple example
Initial probabilitydensity function
Project: Technical ModulesUncertainty in physical systems:
Example 1 of uncertainty propagation
Example 2 of uncertainty propagation
Example 3 of uncertainty propagation
Example 4 of uncertainty propagation
Example 5 of uncertainty propagation
Project: Outreach Activities
AIM: In collaboration with CPET, create and execute a “Sustainable Energy Professional Development Program” (SEPDP)
PURPOSE: To train high school teachers in the area of sustainable energy in general and wind energy in particular for:
o Increasing awareness about the challenges of wind energy, esp uncertaintyo Encouraging new leadership in the push towards sustainability
EXPECTED OUTCOME: o Trained teachers enrich high school curriculum and educate thousands
of students about relevant topicso Trained teachers put together a team to participate in Challenge-RED
Project: Outreach Activities
SEPDP DETAILS: 5 day training program
2 sessions per day
Morning Session:• Interactive presentation sessions for delivery of main material covering
sustainability, energy, power generation, wind, uncertainty• Discussion on technical, socio-economic, political, environment aspects
Afternoon Session:• Lab sessions, interaction with graduate students• Discussions on problem solving techniques, the scientific method• Designed exercises
Challenge-RED:
• After returning to their schools, trained teachers will put together a team of 5 students to participate in a Renewable Energy Design Challenge
• Challenge-RED will be an year-long inter-school design challenge, held as an after-school club activity
• Each team will have a UF based mentor (grad or undergrad student)
Project: Outreach Activities
CHALLENGE-RED FLYER
Or some number…
July 2014SEPDP
September 2014
Challenge-RED Team formation
March 2015Midcourse Meeting 1
July 2015Midcourse Meeting 2
November 2015Final
Presentations
Project: Outreach Activities
SAMPLE TIMELINE: SEPDP + Challenge-RED
NEW SEPDP Cycle
Sustainability in Electricity Generation
Operation of the Electricity Market
Wind Energy: Worldwide Status Quo
Electricity Generation from Wind Turbines
Challenges of Wind: Technical/Social/Political
Effect of Uncertainty on Engineering Systems
Forecasting Techniques and New Developments
1
2
3
4
6
5
7
Tentative Curriculum Content for SEPDP
Thank You!
Questions…Comments…
FACTS from the WWEA 2010-2012 Reports
7. Policy uncertainty in major markets, notably the US represent the biggest barrier in increased penetration of wind power
8. It will be crucial to move renewable energy to the center of the debate at UN Climate Change Conferences
9. In USA, the main source of stagnation is regulatory uncertainty and lack of focus on renewable energy.
10. In developing countries, there is a massive policy gap and not enough stability and reliability in the market framework, next to lack of financial resources
11. While more and more political leaders declare their support for renewable and in particular wind power, less and less is seen in actual implementation
Amount: 2.3¢/kWh for wind, geothermal, closed-loop biomass; 1.1¢/kWh for other eligible technologies. Generally applies to first 10 years of operation.
FACTS from the WWEA 2010-2012 Reports
10. In developing countries, there is a massive policy gap and not enough stability and reliability in the market framework, next to lack of financial resources
11. While more and more political leaders declare their support for renewable and in particular wind power, less and less is seen in actual implementation
Amount: 2.3¢/kWh for wind, geothermal, closed-loop biomass; 1.1¢/kWh for other eligible technologies. Generally applies to first 10 years of operation.
1. Sustainability2. Basics of energy and electricity3. Various sources of electricity: Renewable and non-renewable4. Operation of the electricity market5. Wind Energy Essentials
6. Basics of Energy and Electricity7. Different Types of Sources of Electricity8. Renewable and Non-Renewable Power9. Operations of the Electricity Market10. Wind Power – Basics: Wind, Turbines11. Wind Power – Issues: Technical (reiability, storage, uncertainty, etc)12. Wind Power – Issues: Political13. Wind Forecasting – Types, Methods
Project: Outreach Activities