Increasing Yields

Text extracted from

The World Food Problem

Leathers & Foster, 2004

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Yields have increased

• British wheat yields tripled in last 50 years– 15X increase from 500

years ago

• Cereal yield worldwide doubled since 1960s

Reasons Yields Increase

• Increased inputs– Labor

– Fertilizer

– Machinery

• increased output – Using technology

– without increasing inputs

• Increased efficiency

Production Function

• Initially, as input increases, output increases

• Eventually, a point of maximum efficiency will be reached

• Additional input will lead to diminished increases in output

Inputs

• Fertilizer– Can improve yields

dramatically: 20-1000%– Diminished response if keep

adding– Reduces growth at high

levels– Effectiveness depends on

• Water/Irrigation• Timing of application

– Biggest increase will be in Africa

• Dem. Rep. Congo uses 1% fertilizer used in South Africa

                                                      

Cassava in Gambia

Inputs

• Animal Traction– 400 million draft animals

in world

– ½ World’s ag land farmed with draft animals

– ¼ farmed with hand tools

– ¼ mechanized

China

Use of Draft Animals

• Do the work of 3-4 humans

• Increase land able to be farmed

• Animal plowing breaks soil better than by hand

• Source of fertilizer

• Initial cost high– Profitable if can expand

land

Vietnam

Tractors

• Poorest farmers will consider moving from hand tools to animals

• Farmers using animals will consider using machinery

• May not be efficient choice:– Credit limited

– Gas expensive

– Maintenance expensive

– But labor cheapZimbabwe

Big Growers More Efficient?

• Are big growers more efficient?– have the know-how to

produce

• Would redistribution of land would lower production?– hurt the hungry?

Brazil Farm

Answer

• Big Growers are actually less efficient than small growers in yield/acre

• Often land left idle by large landowners (89% in Brazil)

• Big operations are fossil fuel intensive requiring 10 Calories for every one produced: NeoCaloric Ag

Answer

• Small farmers use labor more intensively

• Small farmers use space more efficiently

• Small landowners more motivated for production and conservation

Tanzania

Big Growers

• Advantages of wealth and size– Big farms can more easily

survive

• Large operations with absentee owners (investors) tend to:– Overuse the soil

– Over-spray with chemicals

– Remove wealth generated from the community

                                                                                                                                                                   

                                                                                              

Land Reform

• World Bank: productivity would be increased if land distribution more equitable

• Land reform (redistribution) successful after WWII: – South Korea,– Taiwan– China

• Recent success– Japan– Zimbabwe– Kerala, IndiaKerala, India

Green Revolution

• 1960’s: improved wheat varieties gave dramatic increase in yield in Mexico

• Varieties more responsive to irrigation and petrochemical fertilizers

• Soon new rice and maize varieties

Norman Borlaug

• Joined Rockefeller Foundation team in Mexico 1944

• Increased yield, rust resistance in wheat

• Biggest contributor to Green Revolution

• Won Nobel Peace Prize in 1970

Green Revolution

• 1970’s: spread to millions of third world farmers

• 1990’s: 40% of all farms in third world– 75% Rice in Asia– 80% Wheat in third

world– 70% Corn worldwide

• Improved standard of living for millions people worldwide

CIMMYT

• CIMMYT– International Maize

and Wheat Improvement Center

– In Mexico

• Part of CGIAR– Consultative Group

on International Agricultural Research

Criticisms of the Green Revolution

• Green Revolution hasn’t alleviated hunger

• Economic power, land controlled by few

• Technology benefits wealthy

• Therefore Green Revolution increases inequity

• More hunger AND more food at same time

Criticisms of the Green Revolution

• Food Insecurity of poor not addressed

• Cash Crops: food flows from the poor and hungry nations to the rich and well-fed nations

• Green Revolution not sustainable– destroys resource base

on which agriculture depends

Example: India

• Self-sufficient in grain due to Green Revolution

• But 1/3 of people poor

• 5,000 children die each day

• Poor cannot afford to BUY the food

India

Criticisms of the Green Revolution

• Early, poor had little access to credit

• Could not buy seeds, fertilizer, irrigation to make Green Revolution work

• Wealthy invested, got richer, drove out poor

• Now, more emphasis on loans for poor

There are still problems• Need good land (wealthy own)

• Agrochemicals bad for health, environment

• Expensive inputs: profits to global chemical companies

• Rural people displaced from land

• Mechanization reduces agricultural jobs

• Not ecologically sustainable: depletes soil, pesticide race

Philippines Example• Two villages studied:

– large and small farmers invested in Green Revolution

• Village 1 had more equal land holdings, solidarity– All benefited from Green

Revolution

• Village 2 dominated by a few wealthy landowners.– Wealthy increased land by

50% at expense of poor

Farm Squeeze

• Fertilizer use increases by huge amount

• Yields do not increase proportionally

• India: 6x rise in fertilizer use but 2/3 less production/ton fertilizer

• Need more fertilizer, pesticide each year for same result

• Thus cost go up faster than yields: cost-price squeeze

Farm Squeeze

• U.S. true home of Green Revolution

• Yields up 3x but prices down

• To survive, must expand acreage to make up for lower per acre profit.

U.S. Farm Squeeze

• Since WWII– number of farms

decreased 2/3– average farm size up ½– rural communities

gutted– production costs up

from 50% of gross to 80%

Soil Depletion Worldwide

• Dramatic increases in yields during 1970s, 1980s

• Soil now depleted, resulting in leveling off or dropping yields

• 6% of Ag land in India now useless

Rice

• Rice breeding at International Rice Research Institute: IRRI

Rice Problem

• 1968: IR8 rice had 2x yield increase– Short: need herbicides to

compete with weeds– Uniform genetically:

susceptible to pests– Brown plant hopper

devastated rice– Insecticide spraying

useless; brown hopper resistant

Rice Problem

• 1973: IR26 Resistant to brown plant hopper– Worked 2 years – Then Biotype 2 of

plant hoppers attacked

Rice Problem

• 1975: IR32 Resistant to Biotype 2– Now Biotype 3

appeared– Insecticides again

useless– Insecticides killed off

brown hopper predators

– Resulted in 40x increase in hoppers

Profits

• Profits from Green Revolution go to – Middlemen

– Banks

– Chemical companies

– Biggest growers

• Grain prices fall

• Farms get bigger

Brazil

Increased Dependency

• Poor countries must import:– Seeds

– Fertilizer

– Pesticides

– Herbicides

• Cost to India increased 600% 1960-1980

• Biotechnology leads to more dependency

Unsustainable Agriculture

• Industrial agriculture = mining land to extract maximum output

• “War” between humans and weeds, insects and disease

• Market dictates weapons: pesticides and chemical fertilizers

• We are destroying our food producing resources

Destruction of Ag Resources

• Desertification

• Soil erosion

• Pesticide contamination

• Groundwater depletion

• Salinization

• Urban sprawl

• Genetic resources shrinking

• Fossil fuels depleting

Sustainable Agriculture Goals

• Environmental Health

• Economic Profitability

• Social and Economic Equity

Agroecology

• Sustainable farming based on ecological principles:

– Diversity– Interdependence– Synergy– Complex interactions

• Science to improve not displace traditional farming

• Low energy, capital costs

Agroecology

• Intercropping– Mixing annual and perennial

crops

• Crop rotations– Rotate cereals and legumes

• Mixing of plant and animal production– Rice paddies with edible

weeds, fish and rice

• Not continuous production of one crop

Africa

• Fragile soils must be protected• Could mix millet, cattle, and Acacia

trees• Trees fix nitrogen, have deep tap

roots• Cattle eat tree pods• Plant millet after leaves fall• Could support 2x population in

Senegal• Aid agencies instead promoting new

seeds, fertilizers, agrochemicals, biotechnology, free trade

• Swaminathan led Green

Revolution in India• Agrees cannot maintain crop yields• Problems:

– Excessive use of pesticides– Groundwater depletion– Pollution– Monoculture

• Therefore, India needs sustainable agriculture– “Evergreen Revolution “

M.S. Swaminathan

World Food Prize 2003

Evergreen Revolution

Vandana Shiva

"Ecological problems arise from applying the engineering paradigm to life."

Failure of the Green Revolution in India

• “The Green Revolution has been a failure. – It has led to reduced

genetic diversity, – increased vulnerability to

pests, – soil erosion, – water shortages, – reduced soil fertility, – micronutrient

deficiencies,– soil contamination…

Vandana Shiva

Failure of the Green Revolution in India

• “…reduced availability of nutritious food crops for the local population, the displacement of vast numbers of small farmers form their land,

• rural impoverishment and

• increased tensions and conflicts. …

Vandana Shiva

Failure of the Green Revolution in India

• “…The beneficiaries have been the agrochemical industry,

• large petrochemical companies,

• manufacturers of agricultural machinery,

• dam builders and • large landowners.”

-- Vandana Shiva "The Violence of the Green Revolution: Ecological Degradation and Political Conflict in Punjab." The Ecologist, 1991, 21(2):57-60

Genetic Engineering:The Next Green Revolution ?

Next Green Revolution?

• “Biotechnology will help [developing countries] accomplish things that they could never do with conventional plant breeding

• “I believe genetically modified food crops will stop world hunger.”

Norman Borlaug Nobel Peace Prize

The Next Green Revolution?

• Biotechnology helps farmers produce higher yields on less land.

• Technology allows us to have less impact on soil erosion, biodiversity, wildlife, forests, and grasslands

• To achieve comparable yields (1950-1999) with old farming methods, would have needed an additional 1.8 Billion hectares of land

Norman Borlaug Nobel Peace Prize

Biotechnology

• “Biotechnology is being developed with the same vision that promoted chemicals to meet the single, short-term goals of enhanced yields and profit margins…

-- Jane Rissler, Union of Concerned Scientists

Biotechnology

• “This vision embraces a view of the world characterized by beliefs that nature should be dominated, exploited, and forced to yield more…”

Jane Rissler

Biotechnology

• “…by preferences for simple, quick, immediately profitable 'solutions' to complex ecological problems…”

Jane Rissler

Biotechnology

• “…by 'reductionist' thinking that analyzes complex systems like farming in terms of component parts, rather than as an integrated system…”

Jane Rissler

Biotechnology

• “…and by a conviction that agricultural success means short-term productivity gains, rather than long-term sustainability.”

Jane Rissler