independent representation for dairy crest direct dpo ... · independent representation for dairy...
TRANSCRIPT
OCTOBER 2017 NEWSLETTER
Independent representat ion for Dairy Crest Direct DPO
DCD General Manager:
Sophie James M: 07879 992099 E: [email protected]
Your DCD Forum Member:
Contact details can be found at www.dairycrestdirect.co.uk
Dairy Crest
Farm Business Centre:
Freephone: 0800 121 4766
www.dairycrestd i rect .co.uk
Company Price Month
Arla 31.04 Oct-17
Meadow Foods 31.00 Nov-17
DC Davidstow Core 30.42 Nov-17
Wyke Farms 30.15 Nov-17
Barber’s 30.08 Nov-17
South Caernafon 30.01 Oct-17
Muller Direct 30.00 Oct-17
Crediton Dairies 30.00 Oct-17
Glanbia 29.96 Oct-17
Belton 29.25 Oct-17
Cadbury 29.11 Oct-17
First Milk H’west 29.06 Oct-17
Arla Direct 29.00 Oct-17
LIQUID LEAGUE TABLE WITH
LATEST DECLARATIONS
4%b/f & 3.3% prot, 30 bacto, 200 SCC, 1mltrs/yr EODC. Excludes seasonality, monthly profile payments, balancing charges, capital deductions, annual/part growth incentive schemes and First Milk H’West Tesco Cheese Group Premium. Includes Arla forecast 13th payment.
Aug-17 Jul-17 Aug-16
Bulk Cream £2,850/t £2,500/t £1,470/t
Butter £6,150/t £5,420/t £3,250/t
SMP £1,550/t £1,570/t £1,570/t
Mild Cheddar £3,425/t £3,300/t £2,650/t
Whey Powder €870/t €928/t €774/t
AMPE 40.1ppl 36.7ppl 26ppl
MCVE 38.7ppl 37.1ppl 28ppl
SNAPSHOT OF UK/ EU WHOLESALE PRICES AND
AHDB MARKET INDICATORS FOR AUGUST
*AMPE and MCVE calculations above do not include the cost of transport.
Company Price Month
Arla 32.30 Oct-17
DC Davidstow Core 31.50 Nov-17
Wyke Farms 31.22 Nov-17
Barber’s 31.19 Nov-17
South Caernafon 31.03 Oct-17
Glanbia 31.00 Oct-17
Wensleydale Dairy 30.45 Sep-17
Arla Direct 30.16 Oct-17
First Milk H’west 30.05 Oct-17
Fresh Milk Company 30.03 Dec-17
Belton 30.00 Oct-17
Parkham Farms—Tesco 29.95
First Milk Lake District 29.93 Oct-17
Cadbury 29.11 Oct-17
MANUFACTURING LEAGUE TABLE
WITH LATEST DECLARATIONS
4.2%b/f & 3.4% prot, 30 bacto, 200 SCC, 1mltrs/yr EODC. Excludes seasonality, monthly profile payments, balancing charges, capital deductions, annual/part growth incentive schemes and First Milk H’West Tesco Cheese Group Premium. Includes Arla forecast 13th payment.
Sources: Milkprices.com and AHDB Dairy dairy.ahdb.org.uk
NOVEMBER MILK PRICE
Following extensive negotiation over the course of several days,
DCD have agreed a 0.5ppl milk price increase from 1st November
2017 with Dairy Crest. The increase will take the Davidstow
November milk price to 31.50ppl for a manufacturing standard litre
and 30.42ppl for a liquid standard litre (standard litre according to
Milkprices.com). The league tables to the left represent the latest
pricing announcements on Milkprices.com at the time of printing.
MARKET UPDATE
AHDB Market Indicators AMPE and MCVE both moved up in
August compared with July, AMPE by 9% and MCVE by 4%. In
terms of MCVE, mild cheddar prices increased around £125/tonne
in August compared to July, but whey powder prices again
decreased, by 4%. Moving to September, AMPE and MCVE both
dropped slightly with AMPE moving from 40.1ppl in August to
39.9ppl in September and MCVE from 38.7ppl in August to
38.5ppl in September. Mild cheddar values increased in by £25/
tonne in September, but whey powder prices fell a further 10%.
Global wholesale prices remained buoyant for August but also
showed contrasting trends in fats and powders, with Skimmed Milk
Powder (SMP) prices continuing their downward trend.
The EU Commission still has over 350k tonnes of SMP to be sold,
despite holding 12 tenders. The intervention programme closed at
the end of September, with a weakening of SMP prices predicted
following the closure. According to AHDB, only 4% of the powder
in intervention stores is less than 12 months old, therefore it may
be that this will only be in demand in the animal feed markets.
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Price Index was up 0.9% at the
auction on 19th September, which follows a 0.3% increase at the
previous auction, with the index having remained relatively stable
since late 2016.
GB milk production has been running slightly
up y-o-y in recent months, but not significantly
and overall is slightly behind production in
2016. Milk yield has shown an overall
improvement in 2017, but a reduction in herd
size has impacted milk production. The
widespread move to beef semen when prices
hit rock bottom, is reflected in the current
number of youngstock recorded by BCMS,
which may have an impact on production in
the longer term.
OCTOBER 2017 NEWSLETTER
Independent representat ion for Dairy Crest Direct DPO
DCD General Manager:
Sophie James M: 07879 992099 E: [email protected]
Your DCD Forum Member:
Contact details can be found at www.dairycrestdirect.co.uk
Dairy Crest
Farm Business Centre:
Freephone: 0800 121 4766
www.dairycrestd i rect .co.uk
Dairy Crest Direct Limited, Registered in England and Wales, Company Number 5094434
Registered Office: Davisons, Lime Court, Pathfields Business Park, South Molton EX36 3LH
PRINCES FARM RESILIENCE
PROGRAMME
Applications are open for the Prince’s Farm Resilience
Programme, which now in its second year, provides
business support for small and medium sized family
farm operations to help them improve their efficiency
and resilience. This year, 300 businesses will be invited
to take part in 15 locations across the UK, including
Penzance and Dartmoor. Applications must be
received by 31 October 2017.
More info: www.princescountrysidefund.org.uk
NEW TB ADVISORY SERVICE A new TB Advisory Service is launching in October 2017.
Farmers in the High Risk and Edge Areas of England will be able to access specialist advice on biosecurity and
trading through the service, which is fully-funded by Defra. The service will be delivered by trained consultants from
ADAS, Kingshay and Westpoint Farm Vets, overseen by a Technical Board comprising experts in the field of bTB.
The service aims to provide on-farm advice to 2,400 businesses over a three year period. A telephone advice
service will also be available for farmers with specific questions relating to bTB.
Farmers wishing to pre-register their interest in the service are advised to e-mail [email protected] or call 01306
779410. Further information is available at www.tbas.org.uk.
AHDB LAUNCH OPTIMAL DAIRY
SYSTEMS APPROACH
AHDB has launched an Optimal Dairy Systems
strategy, with a focus on two systems: block calving
where all cows calve within a 12 week window and all
year round calving with no dry period or seasonal
emphasis on calving. AHDB suggest that farmers
should choose a system that enables them to compete,
matches their market segment, complements their
mind-set and takes account of any on-farm limitations or
opportunities.
More info: dairy.ahdb.org.uk
INTL FCSTONE MILKPRICES.COM
UK MILK FUTURES EQUIVALENT (UKMFE)
Jan
05
Jan
07
Jan
11
Jan
09
Jan
08
Jan
13
Jan
12
Jan
10
Jan
06
Jan
14
Jan
15
Jan
16
Jan
17
Jan
18
Jul 0
5
Jul 0
7
Jul 1
0
Jul 0
9
Jul 0
6
Jul 0
8
Jul 1
3
Jul 1
4
Jul 1
5
Jul 1
2
Jul 1
6
Jul 1
7
Jul 1
8
15
20
25
35
45
40
Pen
ce p
er li
tre
UK Milk Futures Equivalent 25/09/17 18/09/17
Jul 0
8
equivalent of 29.15ppl net to the producer after taking into account 5% processor margin and 2ppl ex-farm haulage.
With thanks to Milkprices.com and INTL FCStone for giving permission to DCD to reproduce the UKMFE graph.
FUTURES UPDATE
In the last newsletter we wrote that
the FCStoneMilkprices.com UKMFE
had delivered the first gross of 40ppl
on its forward curve. Although the
UKMFE is still showing decent price
levels, September has brought
negative price movements, falling
three weeks consecutively in part
due to the increase in sterling value.
The UKMFE Futures results shown
in the graph opposite are derived
from future trades in butter and
SMP, converted to UK pence per
litre equivalents at the latest
exchange rates. The forward curve,
as highlighted by the green line
(Sept ‘17 to Jan ‘19) currently repre-
sents an average gross UKMFE of
32.79 and therefore a milk price