india china ppt final 1
TRANSCRIPT
INDIA-CHINA
Sonam Taneja (103)Sooraj R. (104)
EMERGENCE OF THE ASIAN GIANTS
Together account for 2.5 billion people.
Engines of growth in the midst of rapid economic transformation in the global economy.
Major factors behind the shifting of the global economic focus towards Asia.
Comparing Asian Giants
CHINA Population: 1.3
billion Driving Force:
Manufacturing Largest
Communist Country
Capital: Beijing Liberalization:
1978
INDIA Population:1.147
billion Driving Force:
Services Largest
Democracy Capital: New
Delhi Liberalization:
1991
Economic Indicators
Indicators India China GDP
(Official) $ 1.237 tr. $ 4.22 tr.
GDP per capita (PPP)
$ 2900 $ 6100
GDP composition (by sector)
Agriculture: 17.2%
Industry: 29.1%
Services: 53.7%
Agriculture: 10.6%
Industry: 49.2%
Services: 40.2%
Public Debt 5.1% of the GDP
15.7% of the GDP
Economic Indicators
Indicators India China
Exports $ 162 billion $ 1.465 trillion
Imports $ 260.35 billion $1.13 trillion
Forex reserves $ 249.27 billion $ 1.95 trillion
Mobile Users 362 million 600 million
Country Rank Exports in 2008 Contribution to GDP
Germany 1 $US 1.53 trillion 40%
China 2 $US 1.465 trillion
35%
USA 3 $US 1.377 trillion
9.3%
Japan 4 $US 776.8 billion 16%
France 5 $US 629.7 billion 21%
Italy 6 $US 566.1 billion 23.5%
Netherlands 7 $US 537.5 billion 59%
Russia 8 $US 476 billion 27%
UK 9 $US 468.7 billion 17%
Canada 10 $US 461.8 billion 29.5%
India 26 $US 162 billion 13.09%
Countries with largest exports in 2008
Country Rank Imports in 2008 Contribution to GDP
USA 1 $US 2.19 trillion 15.3%
Germany 2 $US 1.202 trillion 31.5%
China 3 $US 1.156 trillion
27%
UK 4 $US 645.7 billion 23.2%
France 5 $US 833 billion 28%
Japan 6 $US 696.2 billion 14.4%
Italy 7 $US 566.8 billion 23.7%
South Korea 8 $US 435 billion 50.7%
Netherlands 9 $US 485.3 billion 50.1%
India 16 $US 287.5 billion
23.2%
Countries with the largest imports in 2008
Country Current Account Balance
China $US 368.2 billion
India - $US 38.39 billion
USA - $US 568.8 billion
As the exports of China far exceed its imports, its current account balance is a positive value. On the other hand, India and USA have negative account balance as their imports exceed exports.
Current account balance
IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
Global financial crisis- staple of front page news
Job losses
Exports
Imports
JOB LOSSES - INDIA
Indian Companies have cut half a million jobs between October and December 2008.
Slowest economic growth (5.3% in the fourth quarter) since 2003.
Global recession lowered demand for India’s goods overseas. Manufacturers cut production.
JOB LOSSES- CHINA
20 million workers have already lost jobs due to closure of export dependent factories.
China’s growth rate has now dropped for six consecutive quarters.
GDP growth of 6.8% in the fourth quarter. Lowest growth rate since 1991.
JOB LOSSES- U.S.A
The US unemployment rate rose to a 25 year high of 8.1% in February.
US February losses may have been the highest in six decades : Bloomberg.
650,000 jobs lost in February alone.
Economy has shed 4.4 million jobs since December 2007.
EXPORTS - INDIA
India’s exports dipped 13% in February, the fifth decline in a row.
India’s exports in February: $13.04 billion.
Revised exports’ target of $175 billion for the fiscal could not be achieved.
India’s exports for 2008-09 - $162 billion.
EXPORTS- CHINA
February - Exports dropped 25.7%.
Exports in February stood at $ 64.8 billion from a year earlier.
Biggest decline in 13 years.
China’s Exports (2008-09) -$1.465 trillion.
EXPORTS- USA
Total export volumes of US fell 4.4% in the final quarter of 2008 YOY.
US trade dropped 18% between July and November 2008.
The monthly deficit, the difference between what the US exports and imports narrowed 4% to $39.9bn from November's $ 41.6bn.
IMPORTS- INDIA
February: India’s imports fell for the second consecutive month by about 18%.
Imports in February - $ 17.02 billion.
Cumulative Imports (2008-09)- $287.35 bn as compared to $215.22 bn in 2007-08.
IMPORTS- CHINA
China's imports fell 24.1% in February to $ 60bn.
2008- China’s imports stood at $1.156 trillion.
China’s consumption as a % of the GDP has shrunk from 47% in 1997 to 37% in 2007.
IMPORTS- U.S.A
Recession depressed demand for imports.
US imports dropped 5.9% in the final quarter of 2008 to $173. billion in December 2008.
Imports of autos and auto parts dropped to $14.9 billion, the lowest level since May 1999.
Trade deficit in December fell 4% to $39.9 billion from $ 41.6 billion in November.
Services
India 53.7% of GDP US $ 664 billion Employs 28% of labor
force Export oriented• Indian edge - IT and
ITES
China 40.2% of GDP US $ 1.7 trillion Employs 32% of
labor force Domestic demand
I T industry
India China
Total Revenue $ 71.7 bn $920 bn
Growth 12% 12.5%
Hardware $ 21.1 bn $ 871
Software and Services
$ 59.6 bn $ 49 bn
Total Exports $ 47.3 bn $ 522 bn
Software and Services export
$ 47 bn $ 3 bn
Industry
India 29.1% of GDP US $ 360 billion Employs 12% of
labor force Domestic demand
driven
China 53.7 % of GDP US $ 2.08 trillion Employs 25% of
labor force Export driven Chinese edge-
Manufacturing
Agriculture
India 17.2% of GDP US $ 213 billion Employs 60% of
work force Ranks second in
farm output
China 10.6% of GDP US $ 447 billion Employs 43% of
work force Ranks first in farm
output
Infrastructure
India China
Airports 346 467
Railways 63221 75438
Roadways 3316452 km 1930544km
SEZ 63 (234 approved) 129
Telephones 38.76 million 365.4 million
Mobile phone 362 million 600 million
Internet Users 80 million 253 million
Electricity 665.3 bn kwh 3.256 tn kwh
Expenditure $500 bn (2007-12) $1 tln (2006-10)
Ease of doing business
India China US
Ease of doing business 122 83 3
Starting a business 121 151 6
Employing workers 89 111 1
Getting credit 28 59 5
Protecting investors 38 88 5
Paying Taxes 169 132 46
Closing a business 140 62 15
India-China trade relations
1984,India & China signed a Trade Agreement which provided for Most Favored Nation Treatment
1994, the two countries signed an agreement to avoid double taxation
2006,border trade between India and Tibet after 40 years
India’s export to China -US $ 13.16 billion(8.7%) India’s Import from China - US $ 24.43 billion(10
.6%)
Year Brazil China India Russia US
2000 762 1,078 469 391 9825
2010 668 2,998 929 847 13271
2020 1,333 7,070 2,104 1,741 16415
2030 2,189 14,312 4,935 2,980 20833
2040 3,740 26,439 12,367 4,467 27229
2050 6,074 44,453 27,803 5,870 35,165
Projected GDP US $ Billion
FUTURE
Require enormous natural resources Will outsource manufacturing to other
resource rich nations especially in Africa The global integration of China and India
will be radically different Future survival of most admired enterprises
will depend on how quickly they participate in ensuing rise of China and India
Will result in a change in power equations of the world
FUTURE
China has an aging population.By 2050 India will have 220 million more workers than China.
China will have to concentrate on their economic software while India more on its economic hard ware.
China need to concentrate on innovation while India need to refocus on Manufacturing.
Takeaways’
India and China are the fastest growing economies. India driven by services and China by
manufacturing. Economic meltdown had a greater impact on China
than India. By the middle of this century world’s economic and
political axis will shift to Asia. India’s growth model more sustainable than China
in the long run.