india demonitization nov 2016- pros & cons
TRANSCRIPT
DEMONITIZATIONGood | Bad | Ugly
Sunil SahaINDIAN
Neither an AAP-Tard or BHAKT
OBJECTIVES
• Stop PAK cash-funded terrorism
– Kashmir
– Bangladesh – Nepal Routed Money
• Reforms: Banking Sector Needs
• Move towards Cashless Economy
• Curb Black Money
AGENDA
• The GOOD
• The BAD
• Who„s Affected: The INCONVENIENCE
• Who„s Affected: HUGELY
• Operational Strategies – UNEXPLAINED by GOVT.
• Common Debates Facts
• NOT SO COMMON : FAQs
• Advantage BJP : WHY?
• What else could have been Done?
• FUNNY side of it
The GOODLet„s see what„s been GOOD
• 10 Lac Crore Of Cash Expected to Flow In Banks till Dec 30, 2016
• Banks can become stronger to give loans
• Interest Rates Marginally Down
• 92% app users supported the Move i.e. 5 lac people i.e. .0005 % of Population VOTED in first 30 Hours
The GOOD Cont.
• NO.1 Pak CASH Sponsored Kashmiri Terror in Decline
• Fake NOTES will be Curbed
• Income tax payers will increase from 1.5%
• Unaccounted income will come in with new TAX Reforms
• Banks will be saved
Who„s AffectedJust A Little Inconvenience
- Top 5% of Indian Population – who lives/ Or can live off PAYTM FREECHARGE etc
- 150 mn PAYTM Ids by 2016 end
- 7 mn Daily Trxn worth 120 Cr
- PAYTM transactions higher than all banks put together in NOV 2016.
What„s BadWHO„s AFFECTED : Oh My GOD!
• 51 Deaths Reported
• Families with ILLNESS and Marriage
• Daily Wages Earners – WORST HIT
• FARMERS Worst Hit: Rabi Season Produce at risk– wheat, barley, oats (cereals), chickpea/gram (pulses), linseed, mustard (oilseeds)
• Expected Losses : 50000 cr to 3 lac crore
Who„s AFFECTED:How Much?
• 20% of Indian Population Standing in BANKS and ATMS
– i.e. 25 Crore in 1,30,000 i.e. 2000 people in queue per ATM
• Avg 3-4 Days of Work Loss for India as a whole
• No. of ATMS : 2,20,000
• Working ATMs: 1,30,000
• Callibrated ATMs Time Taken = 8000 ATMS per day
• Cooperative Banks devoid of CASH
OPERATIONAL STRATEGIES HURDLESUnderstandably- India Is Just too HUGE
• On ground – 1.55 Post Offices
• Jan Dhan Yojana- 75 Cr Total Bank Accounts
– On Ground execution is Question Mark
• Why RBI Ex Governor Mr. RAM was not consulted
• Why NOTE Sizes were changed
– New 500 and 2000 Rs Size should have been same for Operational Ease
COULD HAVE BEEN BETTER
OPERATIONAL STRATEGIES Unexplained
• Frequent Changes in Announcements
2500 Cash Deposit> 2000 Cash Deposit> 4500 Cash Deposit and again> 2500 Cash Deposit
• Petrol Pump- Hosp. – Medical Shops miscommunication
• Cash RUSH of Rs. 24000
• Marriage Families Withdrawal Rate Issues
COULD HAVE BEEN BETTER
COMMON DEBATE FACTS• 85% of Indian CASH was in 500-1000 Rupee Notes
• 99.9% of Black money is with 0.1% of population
• Differentiation of UNACCOUNTED MONEY & BLACK MONEY
NOT So FAQs 1. Infra: INTERNET SPEED
• CASHLESS ECONOMY : Without INTERNET Speed
• India has 35% Internet Penetration on paper (It doesn„t count multiple connections)
• 1.5% 4G users of 46 Cr Internet Users
• 26 Cr still using 2G
• 20% Indian Males ; 50% of Indian Female in Rural India are illiterate
• How to train people E BANKING/ WALLET?
NOT So FAQs 2. Infra: Mob Internet Training
BJP„s Political Mileage
• UP elections will be cleaner than ever
• All major parties are requested to show
• However Questions remain on last 4 months of LAND Purchases on Inflated rates
• BJP questioned by Opposition which has lost all respect and credibility
What ELSE Could have been Done?If Not NOTE BAN
• Hire 5000 Judges (As req.) by Chief Justice
• Run IT Raids across India for 5000000 people who have maximum Black Money
– Majority- Builders and Politicians
– And Fast Track court to punish it
FUNNY But TRUE
• People at FIRST SUPPORTED Even after Inconvenience : WHY?
• Because all are HOPING
“THE RICH ARE SUFFERING”
INDIAN JUGAAD
• 1st WEEK :
Deposit my 4500 and take home 500
• Bookmychotu.com : OUTSOURCE- who stood in line for Banks and ATMs
• 200% tax and Legal fears – People burnt CASH and CUT it to spread into Fields
• Give me 500, take Rs. 400
• 50% white money by agents
THANK YOUSUNIL SAHA
INDIAN