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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. DBS Bank accepts no liability whatsoever with respectto the use of this document or its contents.

India macroeconomic outlookBalancing act – Health vs Recovery

Radhika RaoEconomistDBS Group [email protected]

November 2020

Implications for India from the US elections

Source: Government agencies, RBI, Bloomberg, CEIC, media reports, DBS Group Research

India: Taking stock of the pandemic curve

Source: Government agencies, RBI, Bloomberg, CEIC, media reports, DBS Group Research; *WEF study

Watch Factors

Second wave less devastating for livesand livelihoods

Onset of the domestic festive period

Widespread testing is picking up a lot ofasymtomatic infections

New infections mostly among the young, and lessfatalities

Pipeline of anti-virals and vaccine is encouraging

Construction, manufacturing unlikely to be halted

Ample liquidity and low interest rates supporting borrowers

Global/ regional instances of resurgence

Cold weather conditions/ winter cometh

Air pollution influences severity and mortality from COVID19*

Herd- Immunity not on the cards

Unlocking on track, encouraging high-frequency trends


Sectors: Varying pace of recovery

Inputs from Crisil survey

Source: Government agencies, RBI, Bloomberg, CEIC, Crisil, media reports, DBS Group Research

Concerns for banks under check, covered by stalled insolvency proceedings, recast window, moratoriums

One time recast window - take-up rate by non-MSME corporates is minimal

Reasons: a) optimism over recovering economy, b) impact on long term credit history, c) concern over insolvency proceeds onceinsolvency proceedings cover is lifted

Policyon a balance beam

Pause likely in rest of 2020 – Anchoring rates will be key



Policy on a balance beam

Financial markets – Catch up since the pandemic outbreak


Returns Risk Ratios

Top Quartile Funds

Scheme Name / Index Name Fund Quartile Inception Date 1 Mth 6 Mth 1 Yr 5 Yr Since

InceptionFund Size INR Cr

3 Yr. Std. Dev

3 Yr. Sharpe

3 Yr. Treynor

Aggressive Allocation

SBI Equity Hybrid Fund Reg Gr Q1 19/01/05 7.04 26.22 5.12 9.65 14.74 31772.77 14.85 0.00 -1.22

Mirae Asset Hybrid Equity Reg Gr Q1 29/07/15 6.01 31.53 8.52 11.32 10.15 3824.02 15.53 0.02 -0.82

Sundaram Equity Hybrid Gr Q1 23/06/00 5.93 25.13 4.07 9.76 11.82 1526.63 15.62 0.00 -1.19

DSP Equ & Bond Reg Gr Q2 27/05/99 7.76 29.55 9.88 10.45 14.32 5586.52 17.18 0.02 -1.04

ICICI Pru Equity & Debt Gr Q2 03/11/99 9.29 21.43 -0.34 8.40 13.23 15479.31 16.08 -0.30 -5.84

Franklin India Equity Hybrid Gr Q2 10/12/99 9.20 32.77 7.85 8.10 13.14 1273.86 15.24 -0.16 -3.45

Arbitrage Fund

Kotak Equity Arbitrage Reg Gr Q1 29/09/05 0.36 1.54 4.39 5.91 7.20 15289.36 0.76 -0.10

UTI Arbitrage Reg Gr Q1 22/06/06 0.33 1.60 4.43 5.83 7.14 3189.75 0.73 -0.11

ICICI Pru Equity Arbitrage Reg Gr Q2 30/12/06 0.37 1.43 4.34 5.82 7.26 9673.38 0.80 -0.21

Contra

Invesco India Contra Gr Q1 8.46 39.96 12.35 12.52 13.26 5026.94 22.01 0.04 -1.72

Kotak India EQ Contra Reg Gr Q2 27/07/05 6.95 42.52 6.89 11.82 12.18 801.96 21.04 0.03 -1.72

Dynamic Asset Allocation

DSP Dyn Asset Alloc Reg Gr Q1 06/02/14 4.21 21.33 9.81 8.37 8.70 1746.92 10.43 0.05 -0.01

ICICI Pru Balanced Adv Gr Q1 30/12/06 5.18 28.49 8.14 9.28 10.61 26122.94 13.42 0.03

All returns displayed are for Growth option Returns are as on 20th Nov 2020 All other data are as on 31st Oct 2020

11/04/07

Top Quartile Funds

Returns Risk Ratios

Sectoral - Thematic

SBI Magnum Global Reg Gr Q1 27/06/05 2.89 24.22 8.55 8.04 16.18 3901.11 16.83 0.00 -1.81

Tata Ethical Reg Gr Q1 24/05/96 3.29 31.16 12.98 7.48 15.63 633.81 16.48 -0.01

-4.21UTI MNC Reg Gr Q1 29/05/98 2.07 20.82 3.73 6.24 15.71 2138.81 16.88 -0.12

Nippon India Pharma Gr Q1 05/06/04 -0.42 28.29 52.12 9.05 20.85 3899.68 20.66 0.64 14.90

SBI Infrastructure Reg Gr Q1 06/07/07 9.26 33.83 0.18 7.54 3.48 436.32 24.48 -0.20 -7.98

Aditya BSL Digital India Gr Q1 15/01/00 1.96 56.83 40.93 16.48 10.23 683.71 21.03 0.87 17.78

Aditya BSL MNC Gr Q2 27/12/99 4.87 23.60 2.73 6.87 15.98 3708.26 18.63 -0.10 -4.04

SBI Magnum Equity ESG Reg Gr Q2 27/11/06 7.98 41.41 5.01 9.80 10.94 2796.36 20.62 0.03

Aditya BSL Manufacturing Eq Reg Gr Q2 31/01/15 4.03 33.80 11.93 8.05 6.55 484.30 18.56 -0.31 -9.42

ICICI Pru FMCG Gr Q2 31/03/99 5.61 18.71 -1.20 8.85 15.97 516.10 14.60 -0.11 -2.84

ICICI Pru Infrastructure Gr Q2 31/08/05 12.93 33.17 -8.45 3.06 10.46 1015.57 24.97 -0.48



3 Yr. Std. Dev

3 Yr. Sharpe

3 Yr. Treynor

ELSS (Tax Savings)

Axis Long Term Equity Gr Q1 29/12/09 12.04 36.60 10.16 12.14 16.61 22631.51 19.36 0.14 0.98

Aditya BSL Tax Relief 96 Gr Q1 06/03/08 5.79 32.28 7.05 10.21 10.11 11157.91 19.58 -0.12 -4.97

ICICI Pru Long Term Eq (Tax Sav) Gr Q2 19/08/99 9.26 36.69 4.40 8.15 18.94 6514.01 20.94 -0.06 -3.83

UTI Long Term Equity Reg Gr Q2 15/12/99 10.52 42.66 12.16 9.69 14.08 1379.32 20.74 -0.06 -3.96

Kotak Taxsaver Reg Gr Q2 23/11/05 6.56 40.23 8.17 10.66 11.26 1311.51 20.83 -0.01 -2.67

Equity Savings

IDFC Equity Savings Reg Gr Q2 09/06/08 1.08 14.56 7.21 5.44 6.48 50.09 8.83 -0.12

Tata Equity Savings Reg Gr Q2 23/07/97 2.86 15.09 6.03 6.21 7.93 92.32 7.09 -0.20


Top Quartile Funds

Returns Risk Ratios



3 Yr. Std. Dev

3 Yr. Sharpe

3 Yr. Treynor

Multi-Cap

UTI Equity Reg Gr Q1 18/05/92 10.08 48.41 20.04 12.45 12.93 11917.47 21.13 0.26 3.66

DSP Equity Reg Gr Q2 07/06/07 10.26 37.75 9.14 11.35 12.01 3818.64 22.07 0.04 -1.79

Kotak Standard Multicap Reg Gr Q2 11/09/09 7.17 40.00 5.59 11.41 12.91 29807.21 20.58 -0.04 -3.31

SBI Magnum Multicap Reg Gr Q2 29/09/05 9.58 39.63 3.37 10.25 11.59 8956.84 20.88 -0.11 -5.09

Focused Fund

SBI Focused Equity Fund Reg Gr Q1 11/10/04 9.90 31.59 5.74 11.97 18.65 10619.72 20.51 0.13 0.52

ICICI Pru Focused Equity Gr Q1 28/05/09 7.41 28.76 10.75 8.34 10.79 806.89 17.30 -0.14 -5.48

Principal Foc Multicap Gr Q1 11/11/05 8.73 35.06 11.64 10.76 14.36 399.62 18.30 -0.01

Sundaram Sel Focus Gr Q2 30/07/02 6.65 31.72 3.70 10.50 17.70 1046.53 20.17 0.04 -1.56

Multi Asset Allocation

HDFC Multi - Asset Gr Q2 17/08/05 2.88 30.42 13.76 7.99 9.02

17.70

345.85 15.63 0.04


Top Quartile Funds

Returns Risk Ratios



3 Yr. Std. Dev

3 Yr. Sharpe

3 Yr. Treynor

Index Funds

HDFC Index Sensex Q1 17/07/02 7.94 45.28 8.08 11.90 14.55 1527.71 21.08 0.15 0.88

UTI Nifty Index Reg Gr Q1 06/03/00 7.75 44.68 7.51 11.21 10.83 2852.80 21.10 0.07 -0.84

HDFC Index Nifty 50 Q1 17/07/02 7.73 44.45 7.16 11.03 14.13 1975.95 21.07 0.06 -1.02

SBI Nifty Index Reg Gr Q2 17/01/02 7.74 44.36 6.65 10.58 13.77 870.34 21.18 0.04 -1.48

ICICI Pru Nifty Next 50 Index Gr Q2 25/06/10 8.02 30.76 4.80 9.02 9.64 824.63 20.46 -0.31 -8.56

Large & Mid- Cap

Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Gr Q1 09/07/10 8.74 46.78 15.05 16.03 19.76 11928.63 22.18 0.12

Invesco India Growth Opp Gr Q1 09/08/07 4.80 35.45 4.16 10.90 10.47 3018.01 20.54 0.02

0.14

Tata Large & Mid Cap Reg Gr Q1 25/02/93 8.29 39.75 8.69 9.66 12.04 1666.41 21.40 0.01 -2.39

Kotak Equity Opportunities Reg Gr Q2 09/09/04 6.43 38.47 9.50 11.38 17.53 3884.93 20.46 -0.02 -2.86

Principal Emerging Bluechip Gr Q2 12/11/08 8.59 41.76 13.38 12.39 22.97 2119.85 22.08 -0.12 -5.63

SBI Large & Midcap Reg Gr Q2 25/05/05 7.57 39.41 4.79 9.06 16.12 2912.39 22.59 -0.08 -4.76

Large-Cap

Axis Bluechip Fund Gr Q1 05/01/10 8.46 33.45 10.46 13.12 12.13 18282.98 16.73 0.28 4.62

UTI Mastershare Unit Reg Gr Q1 15/10/86 8.10 40.66 10.70 10.01 15.43 6471.88 19.55 0.02 -1.80

Mirae Asset Large Cap Reg Gr Q1 04/04/08 6.80 44.07 7.08 12.51 14.78 18999.07 20.78 0.02 -1.84

Kotak Bluechip Reg Gr Q2 29/12/98 6.40 41.82 8.59 9.78 17.83 1740.20 20.46 0.04 -1.53

ICICI Pru Bluechip Gr Q2 23/05/08 8.81 38.76

43.80

5.77 10.20 13.02 23486.07 19.72 -0.09 -4.27

SBI Bluechip Reg Gr Q2 14/02/06 10.18 6.97 9.54 10.55 22421.38 20.70 -0.08 -4.14

All returns displayed are for Growth optionReturns are as on 20th Nov 2020

All other data are as on 31st Oct 2020

Top Quartile Funds

Returns Risk Ratios



3 Yr. Std. Dev

3 Yr. Sharpe

3 Yr. Treynor

Value

UTI Value Opportunities Reg Gr Q1 20/07/05 9.25 42.14 11.42 9.22 13.49 4427.11 20.91 0.00 -2.45

ICICI Pru Value Discovery Gr Q1 16/08/04 7.51 34.52 11.99 6.92 18.54 15421.99 18.89 -0.14

Tata Equity P/E Reg Gr Q2 29/06/04 4.78 38.63 5.62 11.10 17.68 4426.79 21.17 -0.19 -6.86

HDFC Capital Builder Value Gr Q2 01/02/94 6.73 43.08 4.38 8.28 13.71 3924.46 22.68 -0.21 -7.24

Gold

Kotak Gold Reg Gr 25/03/11 -1.61 5.78 30.17 13.40 7.80 769.80 13.61 0.95

Nippon India Gold Savings Gr 07/03/11 -1.58 5.75 29.67 13.10 7.72 1310.57 13.81 0.88

Mid-Cap

DSP Midcap Reg Gr Q1 14/11/06 7.64 39.77 17.35 12.74 14.41 8407.43 22.10 0.01 -3.12

Nippon India Growth Gr Q1 08/10/95 9.31 46.37 13.32 9.83 21.23 7004.74 24.17 -0.08 -5.40

UTI Mid Cap Reg Gr Q2 07/04/04 9.01 48.22 21.20 8.67 16.75 4037.30 23.79 -0.11 -6.51

Small-Cap

Nippon India Small Cap Gr Q1 16/09/10 8.34 54.77 16.82 10.92 15.84 9391.87 28.01 -0.09 -7.53

Kotak Small Cap Reg Gr Q2 24/02/05 9.43 63.82 23.01 10.82 14.80 1855.03 27.23 0.00 -4.94

Global - Other

PGIM India Global Eq Opp Reg Gr Q1 13/05/10 0.60 36.83 63.03 17.26 11.63 392.78 17.20 1.13 21.66

Franklin Ind Feeder-Frank US Opp Gr Q1 06/02/12 0.50 22.07 42.32 17.77 19.50 2281.57 19.41 0.86 16.50

Kotak Emerging Equity Reg Gr Q2 30/03/07 9.49 47.20 14.30 11.58 11.67 7668.47 24.12 -0.03 -4.63

Tata Mid Cap Growth Reg Gr Q2 01/07/94 8.92 43.69 14.98 9.72 11.10 874.78 24.46 -0.01 -4.03

Franklin Asian Equity Gr Q2 16/01/08 7.84 34.46 25.66 13.85 8.84 197.77 17.55 0.24 2.60

Returns are as on 20th Nov 2020, All other data are as on 31st Oct 2020All returns displayed are for Growth option

Top Quartile Funds

Returns Risk Ratios



3 Yr. Std. Dev

3 Yr. Sharpe

3 Yr. Treynor

Banking & PSU

Axis Banking & PSU Debt Gr Q1 8/6/12 0.68 5.00 9.46 8.71 8.81 18605.61 1.98 1.56

Aditya BSL Bkg & PSU Debt Reg Gr Q2 9/5/08 0.79 5.69 10.72 9.03 8.60 14577.39 2.14 1.27

Conservative Allocation

ICICI Pru Regular Savings Gr Q1 30/3/04 2.18 12.98 9.59 9.39 10.05 2255.57 4.35 0.31

Returns are as on 21st Sep 2020 All other data are as on 31st Aug 2020

Corporate Bond

Aditya BSL Corporate Bond Reg Gr Q1 3/3/97 0.87 6.28 11.80 9.05 9.44 23394.66 1.80 1.65

HDFC Corporate Bond Gr Q1 29/6/10 0.74 5.99 11.46 9.09 9.09 23494.11 2.28 1.30 5.16

Dynamic Bond

Kotak Dynamic Bond Reg Gr Q1 26/5/08 1.00 6.04 11.38 9.70 8.90 1907.68 2.89 1.18

DSP Strategic Bd Reg Gr Q1 9/5/07 0.94 3.83 12.32 8.61 7.37 1776.88 3.92 0.74 3.33

IDFC Dynamic Bond Reg Gr Q1t 3/12/08 0.70 4.32 12.61 9.19 8.71 2809.59 4.04 0.82 3.12

ICICI Pru All Seasons Bond Gr Q2 20/1/10 1.02 5.83 12.44 9.67 9.84 4773.09 2.70 1.02

Returns are as on 21st Sep 2020 All other data are as on 31st Aug 2020

All returns displayed are for Growth option Returns are as on 20th Nov 2020All other data are as on 31st Oct 2020

Top Quartile Funds

Returns Risk Ratios



3 Yr. Std. Dev

3 Yr. Sharpe

3 Yr. Treynor

Liquid

Franklin India Liquid Super Instl Gr Q1 02/09/05 0.27 1.69 4.65 6.72 7.58 1707.36 0.42 3.05 0.89

Axis Liquid Gr Q1 09/10/09 0.28 1.72 4.56 6.65 7.56 26508.84 0.42 2.62

0.65Mirae Asset Cash Management Gr Q1 12/01/09 0.28 1.71 4.44 6.47 6.54 3153.00 0.41 2.30

Aditya BSL Liquid Reg Gr Q1 30/03/04 0.27 1.78 4.58 6.66 7.35 34021.01 0.40 2.80 0.59

Nippon India Liquid Gr Q1 09/12/03 0.27 1.73 4.54 6.65 7.20 26076.67 0.41 2.70

L&T Liquid Gr Q1 03/10/06 0.27 1.70 4.49 6.60 7.49 7413.92 0.41 2.36

0.56

UTI Liquid Cash Plan Reg Gr Q2 11/12/03 0.28 1.72 4.45 6.62 7.19 26217.58 0.41 2.46 0.52

Low Duration

ICICI Pru Savings Gr Q1 27/9/02 0.58 4.78 8.30 8.12 8.09 23676.84 1.08 1.79

Aditya BSL Low Duration Reg Gr Q2 14/5/98 0.54 4.30 7.81 7.64 7.50 14195.65 0.95 1.71

Medium Duration

SBI Magnum Medium Dur Reg Gr Q1 12/11/03 1.11 6.71 12.58 10.08 8.31 5321.42 2.36 1.37

IDFC Bond M/T Reg Gr Q1 08/07/03 0.66 4.65 10.03 8.19 7.75 3915.62 2.36 0.95

HDFC M/T Debt Gr Q2 06/02/02 1.06 6.99 9.96 8.22 8.05 1715.21 2.38 0.74

ICICI Pru Medium Term Bond Gr Q2 15/09/04 1.09 7.27 11.16 8.20 7.74 5464.64 2.53 0.69

DSP Bond Reg Gr

DSP Bond Reg Gr Q2 29/04/97 0.47 4.39 9.24 6.56 8.12 368.43 4.06 -0.15

ICICI Pru Liquid Gr Q2 17/11/05 0.28 1.75 4.56 6.62 7.59 40246.63 0.41 2.36 0.50

All returns displayed are for Growth option Returns are as on 20th Nov 2020All other data are as on 31st Oct 2020

-0.80

Top Quartile Funds

Returns Risk Ratios



3 Yr. Std. Dev

3 Yr. Sharpe

3 Yr. Treynor

Money Market

Aditya BSL Money Mgr Reg Gr Q1 13/10/05 0.38 3.00 6.89 7.51 7.08 11973.56 0.59 3.12

Nippon India Money Market Gr Q2 16/06/05 0.36 2.64 6.23 7.33 7.72 6887.14 0.53 3.36

UTI Money Market Reg Gr Q2 13/07/09 0.36 2.78 6.29 7.32 7.78 7776.76 0.53 3.16

Kotak Money Market Reg Gr Q2

Q1

Q2

14/07/03 0.36 2.53 5.92 7.25 7.34 10114.06 0.48 3.54

Overnight

UTI Overnight Reg Gr 24/11/03 0.24 1.50 3.58 5.81 6.16 5708.52 0.44 -2.63

SBI Overnight Fund Reg Gr 01/10/02 0.23 1.48 3.52 5.61 6.76 11580.36 0.36 -4.38

Short Duration

IDFC Bond S/T Reg Gr Q1 14/12/00 0.59 5.10 9.63 8.14 7.76 13210.24 1.85 1.24

Kotak Bond S/T Reg Gr Q1 02/05/02 0.72 5.32 9.83 8.14 7.85 17050.35 1.78 1.24

ICICI Pru Short Term Gr Q2 25/10/01 0.81 5.92 10.57 8.56 8.25 20927.11 1.92 1.16 2.26

SBI Short Term Debt Reg Gr Q2 27/07/07 0.78 4.77 9.52 8.17 7.10 19096.92 1.90 1.09 2.13

DSP S/T Reg Gr Q2 09/09/02 0.73 4.70 9.25 7.81 7.38 3456.97 1.90 0.89 1.73

Ultra Short Duration

SBI Magnum Ultra Short Dur Reg Gr Q1 21/05/99 0.37 2.73 6.17 7.31 7.37 14207.11 0.52 3.31

Aditya BSL Savings Gr Q1 16/04/03 0.47 3.82 7.26 7.98 7.78 16215.21 0.76 2.27

Kotak Savings Fund Reg Gr Q2 13/08/04 0.36 2.80 6.10 7.27 7.68 13539.44 0.58 2.19

Returns are as on 20th Nov 2020All other data are as on 31st Oct 2020

All returns displayed are for Growth option

DISCLAIMERThe information relating to Market Outlook and DBS Forecast is published by DBS Bank India Limited (the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

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india economic and markets snapshot monthly · advances against gold ornaments and jewellery:...

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