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Beyond the second wave

India Insights

A second wave of Covid infections began in India in mid-March, resulting in twelve consecutive days with daily cases

above 300,000 by early May

This time, the central government is keen to avoid a full-scale lockdown and instead encouraged local governments

to adopt more localised and targeted containment measures, to avoid too big an economic impact

India may reach a 70 per cent vaccination coverage ratio in the first quarter of 2022 – a condition that some experts

forecast would bring about population immunity

It is expected that there will be some short-term disturbances in the economy but the fundamental factors bolstering

the long-term growth trend remain intact

May 2021

This commentary provides a high level overview of the recent economic environment, and is for information purposes only. It is a marketing communication and

does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to any reader of this content to buy or sell investments nor should it be regarded as investment

research. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any

prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the past and past performance should not be seen

as an indication of future returns. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global Asset

Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target.

After the first wave peaked in mid-September last year, culminating in just short of 100,000 cases per day, India went

through a relatively manageable period until daily confirmed cases started ramping up again in mid-March. By the time

the number of Covid cases passed the 100,000 threshold in the first week of April, it was apparent that a second wave of

infections was upon the world’s second most populous country. At the time of writing (first week of May), case numbers

have remained above 300,000 for the twelfth consecutive day. Some parts of the country have gone back to partial

lockdowns, sparking concerns of hindrance to an ongoing economic recovery. Indeed, the Indian economy contracted by

a fourth in the April to June quarter last year, however there are some key differences between then and now.

No national lockdown

In March to May last year, when relatively little was known about Covid-19, India went into national lockdown in an

attempt to halt the spread of the disease. The economy took a substantial hit as most business activities were

suspended. This time around, the central government is keen to avoid a full lockdown and instead encouraged local

governments to adopt more localised and targeted containment measures in areas where infections are most serious.

In the spotlight

Non contractual document

For Professional Investors only. Not for further distribution

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Beyond the second wave (contd)

Any forecast, projection or target contained in this presentation is for information purposes only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management

accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecasts, projections or targets. For illustrative purposes only and does not constitute any investment

recommendation in the above mentioned asset classes, indices or currencies.

Good vaccination progress

Also different from last year, we now have multiple working vaccines that have been proven

effective against the disease. India is also a regional manufacturing base of the vaccine

originally developed by Oxford and AstraZeneca. As of 2 May, about 130 million (a tenth of

the total population) Indians have received at least one dose of a vaccine. In April on average,

about 2.5 million people in India were vaccinated daily. Assuming that this vaccination rate

holds up, India may reach a 70 per cent vaccination coverage ratio in the first quarter of 2022

– a condition that some experts forecast would bring about population immunity. In the

meantime, the nation will grow increasingly resistant to the virus as more people get

vaccinated.

Economic growth

As the government is keen to avoid a national lockdown as a means to tackle this second

wave of infections, the economy is unlikely to take a hit as bad as last year’s, especially when

much of the country’s industrial activity is maintained. In fact, early this April when the surge of

infections was already apparent, the IMF still decided to revise India’s output growth forecast

for next year upwards from 11.5 to 12.5 per cent.

Stock market reaction

Generally speaking, despite the recent surge in Covid-19 infections, there is much less

uncertainty around the outlook of India’s economy compared with last year for the reasons

given above. It is expected that there will be some short-term disturbances in the economy but

the fundamental factors bolstering the long-term growth trend remain in-tact. The equity

market seems to be a lot more sensitive to the country’s long-term growth prospects than to

short-term turbulences, as evident by the fact that the S&P Sensex index only retreated by a

modest 1.5 per cent in April. Looking to the experience of the first wave, the index also

remained largely flat until the country hit peak cases in late September, then resumed its

previous upward trend.

India may reach a 70

per cent vaccination

coverage ratio in the

first quarter of 2022 –

a condition that some

experts forecast

would bring about

population immunity.

It is expected that

there will be some

short-term

disturbances in the

economy but the

fundamental factors

bolstering the long-

term growth trend

remain in-tact.

Source: Our World in Data, Bloomberg, as of April 2021

India stock market performance vs daily Covid cases

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000 Daily Covid cases (7-day moving average)

S&P Sensex (rhs)



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Equity market

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not

guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecasts, projections or targets. For illustrative purposes only

and does not constitute any investment recommendation in the above mentioned sectors, asset classes, indices or currencies.

Source: NSDL, as of April 2021. For illustrative purpose only.

Foreign investor inflows into Indian equities

$ million

Index Currency Total return (%)

Nifty 50 Index INR -0.4

S&P BSE Sensex Index INR -1.5

MSCI India Index USD -0.8

MSCI Emerging Markets Index USD 2.5

Sector April return (%) YTD return (%)

Healthcare 8.1 4.1

Materials 5.2 25

Communication Services 3 0.5

Financials -0.8 1.4

Energy -1.4 0.6

Information Technology -3.2 5.1

Utilities -3.6 5.9

Industrials -3.8 12.7

Consumer Discretionary -3.9 1.8

Consumer Staples -4.3 -2.9

Real Estate -15 4.8

Performances of Indian indices vs emerging markets

MSCI India dollar returns – breakdown by sector

Source: Bloomberg, as of April 2021. For illustrative purpose only.

Source: Bloomberg, as of April 2021. For illustrative purpose only.

The Indian equity indices lost between two

and four per cent up to the third week of

April, but regained some ground in the final

week to end up with mildly negative

monthly performances.

In terms of sector performances,

healthcare, materials, communication

services recorded positive performance

numbers in April. Healthcare has bounced

back from negative territory where it spent

most of its time in the last quarter. Materials

is continuing its strong run year-to-date,

relative to other sectors.

Several sectors have done well year to

date but retreated a bit in April – info tech,

utilities, industrials.

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Indian equities recorded foreign investor

outflows for the first month since last

September, likely driven by cautious

sentiment toward the second wave of the

pandemic in the nation.



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Sector positioning

Sector focus - a flourishing start-up landscape

According to a dataset that spans the period 2011 to 2021, prepared by an Indian

financial data provider called Venture Intelligence, thirteen start-ups have become

unicorns (reaching a one billion dollar valuation) in just the first four months of 2021,

compared with nine such companies in each of 2019 and 2020.

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management

as of April 2021

Note- above information reflects the sector

positioning of HSBC Global Asset

Management’s flagship offshore Indian

equity product.

Source: Venture Intelligence, HSBC Asset Management, data as of April 2021. For illustrative purpose only.

Sector Weighting

Financials Overweight

Real Estate Overweight

Communication

ServicesOverweight

Information

TechnologyOverweight

Energy Neutral

Health Care Underweight

Consumer

StaplesUnderweight

Industrials Underweight

Materials Underweight

Consumer

DiscretionaryUnderweight

Utilities Underweight

Even as brick-and-mortar businesses are taking a hit as the pandemic is raging,

companies in the digital space are not only going through the turmoil unscathed, but

are actually thriving – eight start-ups (all apps and internet platforms) reached unicorn

status in April alone. People having to stay home more during the pandemic has

accelerated the digitisation of the economy as a whole. Also, the nation coming to a

complete shutdown when Covid-19 hit last year has led to a accumulation of pent-up

venture capital investment demand. These factors are contributing to a funding frenzy

into digital start-ups that we observe now.

An industry breakdown of the 39 unicorns since 2018 shows that almost half of them

are in e-commerce and fintech. Likewise, a location breakdown of the same companies

suggests that Bangalore is leading in the race to become India’s Silicon Valley.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

No of companies

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

No of companies

Industry and geographical breakdown of the 39 unicorns since 2018:

Total startup funding from 2015 to 2021 ($ billion)

Source: Venture Intelligence, Bloomberg, data as of April 2021. For illustrative purpose only.

8.6

5.1

10.9 11.2

13.1

11.2

4.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Q1






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Fixed income

(%)

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management,

as of 30 April 2021

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

05/1

6

09/1

6

01/1

7

05/1

7

09/1

7

01/1

8

05/1

8

09/1

8

01/1

9

05/1

9

09/1

9

01/2

0

05/2

0

09/2

0

01/2

1

Time to maturity 30 April 31 March

1-year 3.65 3.75

3-year 4.75 4.89

5-year (end 2025) 5.43 5.70

10-year 6.00 6.17

Government bond yields

Source: Bloomberg, data as of April 2021

Sector Time to maturity April 30 March 31

NBFC2-year 5.10 5.27

3-year 5.65 5.94

PSU

2-year 4.55 4.72

3-year 4.97 5.20

5-year (end 2025) 5.78 6.05

10-year 6.80 6.83

Corporate bond yields

Source: CRISIL, data as of April 2021

Inflation March 2021 February 2021

CPI inflation 5.5 5.0

WPI inflation 7.4 4.2

Foreign reserves 23 April 2021 31 March 2021

Foreign reserves $585 billion $580 billion

Rupee spot price 30 April 2021 31 March 2021

USD-INR rate 74.1 73.1

Macro metrics

Source: RBI, Bloomberg, data as of April 2021

Government bond yields rallied by between 15 to 25 basis points across various points on the curve, reflecting positive

market sentiment after the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee announced in April that it would conduct the

Government Security Acquisition Programme (G-SAP) to the amount of one trillion rupees. The market expects the RBI

to continue its accommodative monetary stance to provide support for the economy. In addition, the RBI announced at

the end of April that it would conduct an ‘operation twist’ of one hundred billion rupees on 6 May.

Government 10-year yield over time

CPI inflation rose in March 2021 due to low-base effect.

Core inflation also stayed high. Moreover, elevated

commodity prices contributed to an increase in the WPI.

As the second wave of Covid-19 progresses in India,

the rupee might feel some near term pressure on the

back of risk aversion and the disease’s impact on

growth. However, foreign exchange reserves continue

to remain robust as the RBI continues its build up of

reserves, while smoothing the volatility of the exchange

rate.

With liquidity as the key driver and a reasonably steep

curve and attractive roll down, the front and belly of the

yield curve continue to be attractive. Spreads in the

local currency credit space are likely to stay range

bound in the near future.

While dollar bonds are less attractive in comparison,

selective opportunities are still present in the short end,

given attractive synthetic yields and a well anchored

US policy stance.






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Indicator Latest data

Consensus

data

Previous

data Analysis

Industrial

production (%

year on year)

-3.6 (Feb) -3.0 -1.6 (Jan) India’s industrial production for February surprised to the downside

for a second consecutive month as manufacturing activity

contracted. In manufacturing, declines were broad based but

concentrated in petroleum products, machinery and basic metals.

Mining production fell in the month, while electricity sectors were

largely unchanged. The contraction was expected amid a high base

last year. However, looking ahead, a resurgence of Covid-19

remains a headwind.

Local

passenger

vehicle sales

(units)

290,939

(Mar)

(115% year

on year)

NA 281,380

(Feb)

Passenger vehicle sales rose sequentially in March as economic re-

opening continued. Underlying demand was robust for cars and

tractors, while two-wheeled vehicle demand was lacklustre. The

year-on-year growth reading surged following a nationwide

lockdown in March 2020. Downside risks, including higher

commodity prices, semiconductor supply chain issues and

lockdown measures amid a second wave, weigh on near-term

sentiment.

Exports, $ (%

year on year)

60.3 (Mar) NA 0.7 (Feb) India’s exports and imports jumped in March from a low-base given

nationwide lockdowns starting in March 2020. Pharmaceuticals and

rice primarily drove the growth in exports, while imports were

supported by gold, edible oils and some materials. Sequentially,

both exports and imports accelerated as external demand remained

robust and domestic consumption rebounded. The trade deficit

widened modestly to $13.9 billion.

Imports, $ (%

year on year)

53.7 (Mar) NA 7.0 (Feb)

Trade balance,

$

-13.93bn

(Mar)

-14.1 bn -12.6 bn

(Feb)

Inflation (%

year on year)

- CPI

- WPI

5.5 (Mar)

7.4 (Mar)

5.4

6.2

5.0 (Feb)

4.2 (Feb)

India's CPI rose in March and beat expectations amid a low-base

effect and higher domestic fuel prices. Compared with the prior

month, food prices were steady. Core inflation growth, excluding

food, fuel and mobile charges, moderated following a drop in gold

prices. Policy makers are likely to look through elevated inflation

readings given the flexible target range of two to six per cent.

Repo rate (%)

Reverse repo

rate (%)

Marginal

standing

facility rate (%)

4.00

3.35

4.25

(7 Apr)

NA

NA

NA

4.40

3.75

4.65

As widely expected, the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at four

per cent and said it would maintain an accommodative stance until

conditions indicated a sustained recovery - shifting to an outcome

based guidance. Surprising the market was the announcement of a

commitment to purchase one trillion rupees worth of government

securities during the second quarter of 2021 with the aim of keeping

bond yields under control, amid large bond issuance from the

government. This new tool supplements the existing discretionary

open market operation tools of the RBI.

GDP (% year

on year)

Gross value-

added (% year

on year)

0.4 (Oct-

Dec)

1.0 (Oct-

Dec)

0.6

0.7

-7.5 (Jul-

Sep)

-7.0 (Jul-

Sep)

In the December-quarter GDP print, India recorded 0.4 per cent

year on year growth suggesting robust recovery. The recovery on

the supply-side was notably more robust than the demand-side,

with growth in fixed investment. Contraction in private and

government consumption also narrowed. An acceleration in Covid-

19 cases across some states and an increasing number of virus

containment measures being put in place have started to weigh

significantly on activity and mobility, impacting overall output.

Estimates for growth for the full year have been reduced, but still

remain around nine to ten per cent.

Current

account

balance

$1.7bn

0.2% of

GDP (Oct-

Dec)

NA $15.1b

2.4% of

GDP (Jul-

Sep)

The current account narrowed slightly in the quarter, on the account

of a rise in the trade deficit to $14.8 billion from $10.8 billion in the

prior quarter. Private transfer receipts, mostly remittances, declined

on a year-on-year basis but improved sequentially by 12 per cent.

Indicates improved data on month-on-month/quarter-on-quarter/year-on-year basis

Indicates worsened data on month-on-month/quarter-on-quarter/year-on-year basis

Indicates no change in data on month-on-month/quarter-on-quarter/year-on-year basis

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, as of April 2021

Data watch

Any forecast, projection or target contained in this presentation is for information purposes only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management

accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecasts, projections or targets. For illustrative purposes only and does not constitute any investment

recommendation in the above mentioned asset classes, indices or currencies.



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