India Risk Tracker™ 13th April 2018 Page 1

INDIA RISK TRACKER

13 APRIL 2018

INDIA SNAPSHOT

DELHI Fearing protests, Delhi exhibitors refrain from screening ‘Nanak Shah Fakir’

MAHARASHTRA AND TELANGANA

Kopri bridge work to worsen Thane's traffic; Traffic diversion at Tank Bund Circle in Hyderabad

TAMIL NADU Cauvery row: Black flags greet PM Modi as he visits Chennai; over 1,000 vehicles to join Stalin's Friday rally

NATIONAL Temperature set to rise in several parts of the country

NATIONAL Ministry of Home Affairs asks states to ensure security during Ambedkar Jayanti on 14 April; Section 144 imposed in Gwalior and Bhind in Madhya Pradesh

NATIONAL Congress to observe black day and Mahila (Women) Congress to hold a nationwide protest against BJP government on 17 April

REGIONAL SNAPSHOT

BANGLADESH Quota demonstration called off; Freedom fighters in Magura protest quota abolishment

NEPAL Chand Maoist men held for carrying out explosions in Udayapur

SRI LANKA Severe thunderstorm warning for several provinces

PAKISTAN TLP protesters cause extreme traffic congestion in Lahore city

VERY HIGH HIGH MEDIUM LOW VERY LOW

Delhi: Fearing protests, Delhi exhibitors refrain from screening ‘Nanak Shah Fakir’ The Supreme Court on Tuesday cleared the film ‘Nanak Shah Fakir ', which is based on the life and work of Guru Nanak, for release, but exhibitors in NCR have decided not to screen the film, anticipating protests. While the film was to release on Friday all across the country, Delhi didn’t have any shows of the film. On Tuesday (10 April), the SC stated that the CBFC’s nod was final to clear the film for

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release. Earlier, many state governments had stayed the release of film fearing protests of hurting sentiments of people. But this time, instead of the state governments, the exhibitors have decided to take censorship in their own hands. On Wednesday (11 April), many prominent multiplexes in Delhi, Noida and Gurgaon decided to not screen the movie. ANALYSIS: Keeping in mind trends of earlier protests against a few films, exhibitors in Delhi didn’t take a risk by screening controversial films. Cinema halls are the new protest venues. There are risk of groups coming to cinema halls and vandalising them. Also, if it’s a movie with a religious plot and the religious groups are directing followers to not watch the film. Further, film is not being released this week to avoid any untoward situation. Reportedly, some members from the Sikh community have been protesting before the release of this film in Punjab where the producers had decided to not screen it. Delhi has a prominent Sikh community; therefore they have decided to not release it in NCR. Meanwhile, Delhi Police say they have not received any request from cinema halls regarding any protest or security threat yet. Back to Top

Maharashtra and Telangana: Kopri bridge work to worsen Thane's traffic; Traffic diversion at Tank Bund Circle in Hyderabad Mumbai: After repairs of the Mumbra bypass, the road widening of Kopri bridge is set to add to the traffic woes for Thane. The work is likely to begin by next week and is expected to be complete in the next three years. The widening of the Kopri overbridge was proposed in 2003. Though it is the most-awaited project wherein the current two-lane bridge will be widened to four lanes, the work will also add to Thane's traffic congestion. The Thane Municipal Corporation (TMC), Thane traffic police, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) and other stakeholders will work in close coordination to minimise traffic issues of commuters travelling between Mumbai and Thane. Hyderabad: The city police has imposed traffic curbs in view of Dr B R Ambedkar Birthday celebrations on April 14 at the Tank Bund Circle. The following traffic diversions will be imposed. Traffic will be stopped or diverted at the following places from 10 pm on Friday to 8 pm tomorrow (14 April).

• Traffic coming from Kattamaisamma towards Ambedkar Statue via Lower Tank Bund will be diverted on to Telugu talli flyover towards Iqbal Minor and Ravindra Bharathi. Traffic from Children’s Park will not be allowed towards Ambedkar statue and will be diverted at Children's Park towards DBR Mills, Kattamaisamma and Telugu Talli flyover.

• Traffic from Liberty will not be allowed towards Ambedkar Statue and will be diverted towards BRK Bhavan, IT office, Telugu Talli towards Ambedkar statue and Upper tank bund. Traffic from NTR Marg and Iqbal Minar towards Liberty will not be allowed and will be diverted at Telugu Talli Junction towards I-T office, Crystal Hotel left turn Balaji Grand Bazar, while traffic towards Upper Tank Bund will be allowed.

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Traffic diversions for Hyderabad Metro Rail construction: In order to make arrangements for the early commencement of commercial operations of Hyderabad Metro Rail in Corridor-2 (Jubilee Bus Stand to MGBS) and for the completion of Metro Pier construction activities at Musheerabad Junctions and to avoid inconvenience to the general public, the Hyderabad traffic police imposed traffic diversions for a period of 14 days from today (13 April) to 26 April.

• Traffic from RTC Cross-roads towards Secunderabad have to take a right turn at Musheerabad Crossroads towards Padmaraonagar, reach Padmaraonagar Crossroads and take right turn to go Chilkalguda Circle and Secunderabad.

• Traffic coming from Kavadiguda Crossroads instead of taking left at Musheerabad Crossroads will continue straight via Padmaraonagar to reach Padamaraonagar Crossroad and take a right turn to go to Chilkalguda Crossroads and Secunderabad.

• Traffic from Secunderabad Station via Gandhi Hospital towards Musheerabad Crossroads will continue to proceed as usual.

• Traffic from Kavdiguda to Secunderabad (light vehicles) will take left turn at Mekalmadi via. Bhoiguda T Junction, Gandhi Hospital and Secunderabad Station.

• Traffic from Kavidguda to Secunderabad (light vehicles) will take left turn at A.E. Home Studio via Evergreen Function hall, take a right turn to Gandhi Hospital and Secunderabad Station.

Diversions for RTC Buses: RTC buses coming from Nirankari Bhavan, Old PS Saifabad towards Liberty will be diverted at Iqbal Minar towards Ravindra Bharathi, PCR- Basheerbagh. RTC buses from Ranigunj, Karbala Maidan intend to go towards Ambedkar Statue, Liberty, Basheerbagh will be diverted at Children’s Park towards DBR Mills, Dhobi Ghat, Kattamaisamma on the Telugu talli flyover and Indira park. Parking Arrangements: Lorries and trucks coming for the event to be parked behind Buddha Bhavan. Two and four wheelers to be parked at Nizam College Grounds, Mee-Kosam (NTR Marg), Lumbini Park. The in-charge Commissioner of Police, Hyderabad City, D S Chauhan requested the public to take alternate routes to reach their destinations. IMPACT ANALYSIS: In Mumbai:

• Illegal parking of vehicles at Anandnagar subway will be penalised and removed.

• Space for parking BEST buses will also be made available.

• Meanwhile, this puts more work for Thane traffic police that have been working on handling traffic diversions from April 16 which when the Mumbra bypass will shut for repair work for two months.

• Commuters travelling from Mumbai to Thane, Kalyan and Dombivali Thane commuters travelling from Thane, Kalyan, Dombivali to Mumbai will be affected.

• Further, commuters will have to use alternate route to reach Thane and Navi Mumbai.

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• Cater for traffic diversions and route change. Advised to follow the traffic diversion in place to avoid further delays and confusion.

In Hyderabad:

• Traffic diversions and route changes have been issued. Advised to follow the traffic diversion in place to avoid further delays and confusion.

Back to Top

Tamil Nadu: Cauvery row: Black flags greet PM Modi as he visits Chennai; over 1,000 vehicles to join Stalin's Friday rally On the ground, the opposition to PM Modi’s visit to Chennai was evident. Yesterday (12 April), opposition parties and others carried out black flag protests across Tamil Nadu, with as many as 3,080, including DMK’s Kanimozhi and MDMK’s Vaiko, being arrested in Chennai alone. Chennai protestors released black balloons in the air while members of a fringe outfit climbed an advertisement hoarding across from the Chennai airport and waved black flags. Meanwhile, the DMK working president concluded his week-long road march along the Cauvery delta region, at a public rally in Cuddalore yesterday evening, a huge vehicle rally led by the party is expected to reach Chennai city today (13 April). A senior DMK leader said Stalin and leaders of nine opposition parties are expected to leave Cuddalore this morning. The appointment with Governor Banwarilal Purohit is scheduled for noon.

IMPACT ANALYSIS:

• The vehicle rally is expected to enter Chennai by noon and opposition party leaders will meet the Governor with petitions from the people.

• Senior police officials are busy negotiating with the DMK leadership over the vehicle rally in the city as traffic has been disrupted for the past four days due to a series of protests.

• A minimum of 1,000 vehicles are expected to follow the convoy of Stalin. Police are requesting them to enter the city with about 10 vehicles by dispersing the vehicle rally before Tambaram (city gateway).

RECOMMENDATIONS:

• Traffic congestion can be expected in Chennai, Tamil Nadu today (13 April) due to the vehicle rally by DMK.

• Protests over Cauvery water-sharing row are ongoing, further protests can be anticipated. Advised to exercise caution in Tamil Nadu until situation normalizes completely.

• Travel disruptions can be anticipated on State Highway connecting Cuddalore to Chennai, Tamil Nadu today (13 April).

• Cater for heavy security presence across Tamil Nadu especially in Chennai, co-operate with authorities.

• Monitor local developments closely to stay updated regarding the situation. Back to Top

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National: Temperature set to rise in several parts of the country Delhi: Mercury levels in Delhi remained below normal yesterday morning (12 April), due to light rains on Wednesday. The national capital has been witnessing pleasant weather since last Saturday, when a bout of thunderstorm and dust storm brought the temperatures down. However, the western disturbance that caused the light drizzle is traveling eastwards. Hence, from today (13 April), temperatures will rise and Delhi will be dry and hot again. Mumbai: Mumbai is expected to experience hotter days ahead as the Met department forecasts rising temperatures, with mercury likely to touch 38 degrees Celsius by Wednesday next week. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) weekly forecast, the maximum and minimum temperatures in the city will gradually rise through the week. While the maximum temperature is expected to touch 38-degree Celsius next week, the minimum temperature is likely to be 25 degrees Celsius. Telangana: With the thunderstorm warning for Telangana ending today (13 April), temperatures were expected to rise from April 15, according to the Indian Meteorological Department. Thought light to moderate rain was being received at isolated spots in the State, there had been a slight rise in the day temperatures. Hyderabad recorded 37 degrees yesterday (12 April), Ahmedabad: Due to the upper air cyclonic circulation over the state, maximum temperatures in most parts of the state were below 40°C yesterday (12 April). The maximum temperature in Ahmedabad city was just a tenth of a degree below 40°C, 0.6 degrees above normal and the minimum temperature was 25.6°C, two degrees above normal. ANALYSIS: Delhi

• Delhi received rains because of a trough, formed due to a cyclonic circulation over Central Pakistan and neighbouring Haryana and North Rajasthan. However, within the next couple of days, the temperatures will go above normal.

• The dust storm Delhi received last week affected flight operations significantly. As many as 24 Delhi-bound flights were diverted due to low visibility. One-hour delays in both arrival and departure were reported for several flights. Some were diverted to nearby Amritsar after landing attempts failed.

Mumbai

• Last month, 124 people suffered heatstroke in the state of Maharashtra. District health officials had earlier said that cases of hyperthermia, a condition in which body temperature rises due to sudden spike in heat and body absorbs more heat than it dissipates, are estimated to rise throughout April.

• Officials from Maharashtra Emergency Ambulance Service (MEMS) said that on an average 8-10 people are being treated in the 108-ambulance service for hyperthermia every day. In Mumbai, at least four such patients were handled by the ambulance service last month.

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Telangana

• The current weather spell indicates thunderstorm accompanied by gusty winds up to April 13. However, the forecast is light to moderate rainfall for the State.

• April, generally considered the peak summer month, had been witnessing irregular moderate rain and drop in temperature due to the thunderstorm caused by high humidity levels and south-easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal. The city on Friday is likely to be partly cloudy with possibility of development of thunder and lightning.

• For today (13 April), there is warning of likely thunderstorm accompanied with gusty winds at isolated places in all districts.

Ahmedabad

• According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the weather could get humid in the next few days and there will be no drastic change in maximum temperatures in state.

• After that, maximum temperatures will rise by two to three degrees. RECOMMENDATIONS: • Solar radiation is at its strongest between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m., with the hottest time

in the late afternoon (3 p.m. to 6 p.m.), so restrict activities in the open air to morning and evening, and where possible remain in the shade.

• Protect yourself from direct sun (with shade, appropriate clothing, head covering, sunglasses, sunscreen etc.

• Wear loose, light-coloured clothing. • Ensure that your body gets sufficient liquid (at least 2 litres a day), and compensate

for salt and water loss simultaneously. • Eat fresh, cool and light meals, and spread these out over the course of the day. • Compensate for salt loss during or after sporting activities. • Make the most of the lower night-time temperatures: allow plenty of outside air to

circulate through buildings. • Cool down with a cool shower or bath. • Take plenty of liquid to stay hydrated. • Stay updated on weather alerts and warnings. Back to Top

National: Ministry of Home Affairs asks states to ensure security during Ambedkar Jayanti on 14 April; Section 144 imposed in Gwalior and Bhind in Madhya Pradesh Ahead of the Ambedkar Jayanti tomorrow (April 14), the Centre yesterday (12 April) asked all states to increase security and check any possible attempt to inciting violence during the event. MHA directed Districts Magistrates and Superintendents of Police to ensure peace and check violence in their respective areas of jurisdiction. Meanwhile, according to district administration officials, prohibitory order against large gatherings (Section 144) will be imposed in Bhind and Gwalior cities of Madhya Pradesh (MP) on 14 April. Moreover, District administration officials in Morena are also likely to

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impose section 144. HISTORIC ANALYSIS: This is the third advisory by the MHA within a fortnight. The first one was sent a day before the 02 April Bharat bandh (nationwide shutdown), which was called to protest against the alleged dilution of the SC/ST (Prevention of Atrocities) Act. Another advisory was sent before the 10 April strike called by people opposed to caste-based reservations in jobs and education. The latest MHA advisory came in the wake of massive violence in different parts of the country during the 02 April Bharat bandh, leading to the death of about a dozen people, and vandalisation of statues in some parts of the country. Meanwhile, in MP, a prohibitory order under Section 144 will be imposed as violence broke out in Gwalior, Bhind, and Morena on 02 April, when Dalit groups across the country had called for a nationwide strike in protest against a Supreme Court order diluting the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes Prevention of Atrocities Act. Three Dalits had died in Gwalior in clashes that broke out during the protest, while four were killed in Bhind. The decision to impose prohibitory order against large gatherings on the day of Ambedkar Jayanti was first taken in Bhind when the district administration came across a fresh set of Whatsapp messages doing the rounds. According to officials, since Whatsapp groups in the district have come under the police radar after the 02 April strike, circulation of the messages concerning the day of Ambedkar Jayanti is happening mostly through personal accounts. While Dalit groups are circulating messages about strikes to be organised again, upper caste groups are circulating messages about retaliation. Notably, according to the district administrations, strikes on 02 April and 10 April were organised entirely through social media. The protesting groups had no centralised leadership or political banner. IMPACT ANALYSIS:

• Events, rallies, campaigns and demonstrations can be expected by Dalits and political parties across India, starting from the evening today (13 April) and on Ambedkar Jayanti (14 April). Advised to monitor the developments closely and plan business schedules accordingly.

• Travel disruptions are likely in several parts of India. Cater for traffic disruptions and heavy security, enhanced vigilance can be expected on 13 and 14 April.

• In case of any untoward incident, the chances of communal tensions spurring cannot be ruled out, due to the sensitivity of the issue and the current state of affairs.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

• Travel disruptions can be expected, cater for diversions and delays especially in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Advised to plan commute accordingly.

• Follow all instructions/ restrictions imposed by the authorities.

• Cooperate with security personnel during checks and carry valid Id at all times.

• Monitor local news portals / advisories to stay updated regarding latest

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developments.

• Advised to monitor announcements by local law enforcement authorities and abide by all instructions.

• Advised to refrain from rumour-mongering or posting strong sentiments regarding the issue on social media platforms.

• Avoid venturing close to rally locations and crowded places as it poses incidental risk.

Back to Top

National: Congress to observe black day and Mahila (Women) Congress to hold a nationwide protest against BJP govt on 17 April The Congress party decided to observe black day on 17 April to protest rising crimes against women in the country. Furthermore, all India Mahila Congress (AIMC) declared yesterday (12 April) that it would hold a nationwide protest against the BJP-led government over alleged rising cases of crime against women on 17 April. Meanwhile, congress president Rahul Gandhi led the candlelight vigil at India Gate in New Delhi yesterday (12 April) to protest against the Kathua and Unnao rape cases in Jammu & Kashmir and Uttar Pradesh. Congress party president asked the Modi government to act against the perpetrators of the crime and ensure women safety across the nation. ANALYSIS: The BJP government is drawing a lot of criticism over rape of a minor in Kathua, Jammu & Kashmir, and Unnao rape case, which allegedly involves BJP MLA. Details of the cases:

• In Jammu & Kashmir, an eight-year-old lost her life in the Kathua rape and murder case. Following the charge sheet, protests had broken out in which some sought to defend the accused persons. According to police, the primary intention of the murder was to frighten and dislodge the Bakarwal community (a nomadic tribe) to which the girl belongs.

• In Uttar Pradesh, an FIR has been registered against rape accused BJP MLA yesterday (12 April) at the Makhi police station in Unnao. The accused allegedly gang-raped the girl in Unnao - who later attempted suicide outside Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath's residence in Lucknow, UP on Sunday (08 April).

IMPACT ANALYSIS:

• Demonstrations are likely to be held by Mahila Congress in all state capitals on (17 April).

• Demonstrations are likely to be peaceful, however large-scale participation and heavy security measures can be anticipated.

• Cater for crowd presence and traffic movement could be disrupted in all state capitals on (17 April), as large number of women are likely to participate in the protest.

• Heightened security arrangements can be expected.

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IMPACT ANALYSIS:

• Cater for increased security near key government installations and prominent areas in state capitals on 17 April as demonstrations are likely by Mahila Congress on 17 April.

• Demonstrations are likely to be peaceful, however large-scale participation and heavy security measures can be anticipated.

• Traffic disruptions can be expected in state capitals on 17 April, plan commute accordingly.

• It is advised to maintain situational awareness at all times to avoid incidental risks.

• Monitor local news portals / advisories to stay updated regarding latest developments.

• Avoid venturing close to rally locations and crowded places as it poses incidental risk.

Back to Top

REGIONAL SNAPSHOT

Bangladesh: Tight security planned for Pohela Boishakh celebrations on 15 April in Dhaka As part of its extensive security measures to ensure foolproof safety during Pohela Boishakh celebrations in Dhaka, Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP) has issued a traffic advisory ahead of the event. Police will cordon off venues around the Dhaka University campus, Ramna Park, Teachers-Student Centre (TSC), Shahbagh and Suhrawardy Udyan areas for ensuring smooth celebrations of the first day of Bangla New Year. Similar security measures would also be taken for Hatirjheel and Rabindra Sarobar areas. Separate patrol teams of the Bangladesh Navy would be deployed in Hatirjheel and Rabindra Sarobar areas and divers and fire service units would remain on standby. In addition to this, a special team will be deployed to prevent eve-teasing during the festival. The following are the traffic restriction in Dhaka, Bangladesh from today (13 April) till 15 April: Traffic movements will be stopped on the following routes:

• Motor-Ruposhi Bangla-Shahbagh-TSC-Doel Chatta

• Ruposhi Bangla- Kakrail-Matshya Bhaban-Kodom Foara

• Matshya Bhaban-Shahbagh-Kantaban

• Polashi- Shaheed Minar-Doel Chattar-High Court Crossing

• Bakshibazar-Shaheed Minar- TSC

• Shahidullah Hall Crossing-Doel Chattar

• Nilkhet-TSC areas. The following are the parking slots: Vehicles could be parked on:

• The Navy Admission Information Centre-Holy Family Hospital route

• Old Elephant Road, Abdul Gani Road

• Curzon Hall-Bangabazar-Fulbaria

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• Matsya Bhaban-Carpet Lane

• Shilpakala Academy alley

• Sugandha-Officers Club

• Katabon-Nilkhet-Palashi See picture below for further details:

Source: Dhaka Tribune

IMPACT ANALYSIS: Due to the festivities this weekend, traffic congestion in Dhaka is likely to be very high. Additional security measures will also be in place due to the large-scale celebrations that are going to be in place on 15 April. It may also take longer than usual to reach the destination. RECOMMENDATIONS: • Cater for increased security in Dhaka, Bangladesh from13-15 April. • Cater for increased travel time due to traffic congestion that should be anticipated. • Advised to stay updated on any road blockades / traffic diversions and plan

accordingly. • Monitor ground situation for further updates. Back to Top

Nepal: Chand Maoist men held for carrying out explosions in Udayapur Two cadres of Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) were arrested for their alleged involvement in carrying out explosions in Udayapur. A bomb was

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detonated at Chuhade-based crusher factory in Triyuga Municipality on Sunday (08 April) and another was exploded in Gaighat. Additionally, Cadres of Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) looted Hupsekot Rural Municipality ward 3 office. Police said computer, printer, lamination machine and important paperworks were looted by the cadres who broke into the building. Chand Maoist men have also been previously involved in several IED attacks in the country. RECOMMENDATIONS:

• Cater for increased traffic congestion due to closure of roads. • Take alternate routes to reach destination.

If you find yourself at the scene of an IED attack: • Get out of the area in case a secondary device is set off. This will also minimise

exposure to dust, smoke and hazardous substances. • If you are in a building, get under a sturdy table or desk if objects are falling

around you. • Leave as quickly as possible, without stopping to get personal belongings or

make phone calls. • Stay away from windows, glass doors and other potentially hazardous areas. • If you have been at the site of an IED attack but don’t have any immediate

injuries, stay vigilant in the weeks and months afterwards, as some health effects such as eye injuries, abdominal damage and psychological effects can take longer to appear.

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Sri Lanka: Severe thunderstorm warning for several provinces The Department of Meteorology says that thundershowers with severe lightning activity is expected in the Western, Samaragamuwa, Central, Southern, Uva and North-Western provinces for today (13 April). Temporary strong winds with speeds up to 70-80kmph could accompany the thundershowers, it said, issuing a weather advisory. RECOMMENDATIONS:

• Follow all the precautions the weather department and the administration.

• Take alternate modes of transportation to reach the destination.

• Advised to exercise caution. Pre-plan your travel route and be aware of changing weather conditions.

• Ensure that your cell phone is fully charged while venturing out.

• Keep an up-to-date emergency kit.

• Monitor the local weather developments to stay updated on the ground situation

• Seek shelter, preferably indoors, covered vehicles and never under trees

• Avoid open areas such as paddy fields, tea plantations and open water bodies

• Avoid using wired telephones and connected electric appliances

• Avoid using open vehicles, such as bicycles, tractors and boats etc.

• Beware of fallen trees and power lines Back to Top

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Pakistan: TLP protesters cause extreme traffic congestion in Lahore city Lahore city remained paralysed yesterday (12 April) as the roads were blocked by demonstrators of Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan’s (TLP). TLP demonstrators blocked Walton Road, Ferozpur Road, Multan Road, Shadara Chowk, Daroghey Wala, Sheikhupura Road, Babu Sabu Interchange, Azadi Flyover and various entry points to the Lahore Ring Road. Due to the roads being blocked, the traffic diverted to alternate routes where it remained stuck for hours at end because of lack of proper traffic control. In Defence Housing Authority (DHA), the traffic remained congested for several hours because the alternate routes for DHA were blocked by the sit-in and the citizens had to opt for the main boulevard of DHA which was already blocked at various points due to the ongoing construction of the residential area. RECOMMENDATIONS:

• If travelling in Lahore, Pakistan; consult local authorities for route options.

• Be prepared for delays and plan your commute accordingly.

• Monitor the local developments to stay updated on the ground situation.

• Traffic diversions may be put in place, as large numbers of protesters are likely to join the agitation in Lahore, Pakistan.

• Even though it is going to be a peaceful protest it recommended to stay away from the protest site to avoid incidental risks.

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