india smart grid week, 2017. plenary-1 grid mordernization/5. n...micro- and nano-grids energy...
TRANSCRIPT
N. Venu
Big Shift in Power: Shaping the System of the Future
President and Head, Power Grids Division, South Asia, Middle East and Africa
ABB
India Smart Grid Week, 2017
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Source: UN World urbanization prospects: 2012 revision
Population growth & urbanization Paris climate agreement (COP 21)
Average global temperature increase <2°C
$100 billion/a to support developing countries
Emission peak soon, 2050 balance of emissions and capturing
Several global challenges
2
Source: UN World urbanization prospects: 2012 revision
Grid interconnection DigitalizationDemand management
Residential roof top solar plus
Micro- and Nano-grids New business modelsEnergy storage & power quality
Elements of the evolving grid
…the Energy Revolution in combination with Digitalization, impacting across the value chain
3
units <50 MW connected to MV/LV, Source: BNEF, ABB analysis
Power balance tipping towards
renewables, driven by policy &
disruptive technology cost
reduction
Main growth in variable
renewables such as wind and
solar
Two growth paths
– Mainly centralized renewables
– Mainly distributed renewables
Power generation Coal, gas, nuclear, oil
2015 2010 2015 2030 2035 2040Perc
enta
ge o
f to
tal
pow
er
genera
tion
All RES Variable RES Distributed*
RES
100
Renewables expected to be dominant source for electrical power generation
Changing power generation balance
Centralized vs decentralized
RES c
ontr
ibuti
on t
o a
nnual
tota
l dem
and [
%]
0 10 20 30 4050 60 70 80 90 100
Distributed RES* contribution to annual total demand [%]
C-RES D-RES
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
2015
2020
2030
2030
2020
2015
DK, Ministry of Energy
DE, Energiewende
IN, 5-years dev’t plan
CN, Government plan
CH, Energy Strategy 2050
100
4
1 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance & pv.energytrend.com
2 Source: Data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Batteries & photovoltaic
• Dramatic cost reduction – to be continued
• Scalability of technologies
• Consumer investment across market segments accelerating developments
Price history of silicon PV cells1 Yearly demand for EV batt. power2Cost for lithium-ion battery packs2
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
gigawatt hours
Estimated
Actual
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
$1,200 per kilowatt hour90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
$76.00
$0.30
$/w
att
1977
1981
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Disruptive developments driving key changes
5
Grid – enabler or bottleneck?
Take away message
Significant grid investment & technologies required to address challenges
Technical challenges countries encounter
Conventional operation
System inertia & grid voltage
Max.
hourl
y v
ari
able
renew
able
genera
tion
as
a p
erc
enta
ge o
f to
tal
dem
and
2012
Short circuit power & significant variable RES curtailment
Grid capacity & reserve
2040Today
Germany
6
A global interconnected grid brings many advantages
A global interconnected HVDC grid would bring many advantages…
ABB is building the world’s1st multi-terminal UHVDC grid
Renewable integration across regions
– Fluctuations during the day
– Seasonal variations
Optimal use of reserve and peaking capacities
Diversification of electricity supply
Reduction of wholesale electricity price
volatility
Strengthening grid operation in case of fault
conditions
Increase capacity utilization factor
of conventional generation
Opportunities
7
Microgrids and integration of renewables
Grid code compliant integration of wind & solar
Stabilizing weak grids
Microgrids acting as one controllable generator or load
Access to power in remote locations
Resilient and cost-
effective technologyMarble Bar, Australia
PV* (300 kW)
Diesel (1280 kW)
Flywheel (500 kW)
Kodiak Island, Alaska, USA
Wind (9MW)
Diesel
Flywheel (2 x 1MW)
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Power quality & storage solutions increasingly needed
Dispatchable = more $ per kWh
Postponement of grid upgrades
New revenue
from ancillary
grid services
Stabilization
Reduced fees from
harmonic pollution &
demand peaks
Grid
Industry and large commercial
Generation
Residential and small commercialMicrogrids
Transport
Higher reliability
rail network
PQ
PQ
Storage
Storage
PQ
Storage
PQ
Storage
PQ
Storage
PQ
Storage
PQ
Storage
Compliance with grid codes
Storage Increase self-consumption
PQ
Storage
PQ
Storage
Integration of distributed renewables & EV
9
From conventional to digital substations
CAPEX reduction
– Reduced footprint (AIS)
– Up to 80% less copper cabling
Reduced engineering & installation time
Improved safety
OPEX reduction
– Asset health & predictive maintenance
– Up to 50% reduction in outages
Fast & easy reconfiguration
Fit for future grid requirements
275 kV digital substation with digital sensors
& 61850 digital communication bus, in operation since 2011
Queensland, Australia
Enabling flexibility for new and existing substations
10
Power systems of the future-an evolutionary vision
Renewables will take major share in electrical power generation
– Disruptive elements
• Photovoltaics
• Batteries
• Digitalization
– Distributed generation with changing consumer & producer patterns
– Distribution grid role changing
– Transmission backbone essential
– New business & operational models Self sufficiency x %
Storage capacity x kWh
Grid
Interconnection
Interconnected system of regional grids with fluctuating demand and generation patterns
11
THANK YOU