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INDIAN CENTRE FOR CLIMATE AND
SOCIETAL IMPACTS RESEARCH (ICCSIR)
Annual Report 2014 - 2015
Dr. Rohit Srivastava 1, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
Indian Centre for Climate and Societal Impacts Research,
Sri Vivekanand Research & Training Institute (VRTI) Campus,
Nagalpur Road,
Mandvi, Kachchh,
Gujarat, India.
Phone No. +91 - 2834 - 224024 & Fax: +91 - 2834 - 224024
Web: http://www.iccsir.org
Vision
An integrated, multidisciplinary approach to research in the science of climate
evolution and in societal adaptation to climate evolution is necessary for socio-
economic and political stability of the global society in the 21st century.
Goals
Research Goals : Development of methodologies for assessment of climate vari-
ability and changes in western India at sub-seasonal to decadal time scales due to
natural variability and human-induced changes, including global warming, and their
societal impacts, using observations and models. Understanding of climate related
societal issues by means of inter-disciplinary (both at national and international
levels) association; and development of techniques and technology for Earth System
observations and modeling.
Education Goals : Education and training programs for high-school to post-
graduate college teachers, public and private sector officials, on Earth System Sci-
ence (ESS) and societal impacts of climate variability and changes, including global
warming. Ph.D. program for education and research in ESS and societal impacts.
Applications and Outreach Goals : Generate ESS and societal impacts data
and information systems for farmers, water managers, public health officials, other
stakeholders, and policymakers.
Create public awareness to these issues through exhibition-cum-experiments labo-
ratory, and video and TV programs.
Board of DirectorsShri J. S. Gosalia Excel Industries, Mumbai and Trusty VRTI
Shri D. B. Mehta Excel Industries, Mumbai
Shri Khushalbhai Bhanani Manager, Agrocel Industries Ltd., Bhuj
Dr. Yogesh Jadeja Director, Arid Communities and Technologies, Bhuj
Faculty & Staff
Dr. Rohit Srivastava Assistant Professor
Shri Shouvik Jha Research Assistant
Shri Sherin Hassan Bran Junior Research Fellow
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Contents
1 Research Activities 4
1.1 Southwest Indian monsoon variability on decadal timescales associ-
ated with variabilities in the Pacific and Atlantic regions . . . . . . . 5
1.2 Spatial variation of Black Carbon and its climatic implication over
western and northern Indian regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.3 Application of GIS and Remote Sensing for Sustainable Agriculture
in Rukmavati River Basin of Kachchh, Gujarat . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2 Application and outreach activities 11
2.1 ICCSIR’s weekly weather forecast bulletin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.2 Dissemination of current weather data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.3 Satellite imagery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2.4 Training Programme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3 Educational activities 13
4 Summary and Future plan 16
4.1 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
4.2 Future Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3
Chapter 1
Research Activities
This part of report contains the scientific research activities carried out from January,
2014 to March 2015. Presently, ICCSIR is involved in two scientific projects details
given below :
� Project title : “South Asian Precipitation: A Seamless Assessment: SAPRISE”
Funding agency : Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India under the Indo-
UK Changing Water Cycle Programme
� Project title : “Investigation of the role of black carbon on aerosol radiative
forcing over western India”
Funding agency : Department of Science and Technology (DST), Govt. of
India.
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1.1 Southwest Indian monsoon variability on decadal
timescales associated with variabilities in the
Pacific and Atlantic regions
Rohit Srivastava, Satyendra Bhandari and Vikram Mehta
Indian summer monsoon provides about 80% of annual rainfall in India. One of
the key drivers is potential teleconnections on decadal time scales with the Pacific
and the Atlantic. There are considerable challenges to model and predict these
variations decadal/mutidecadal modes and their interactions with the monsoon in
the future. There are also significant uncertainty in the pattern and magnitude of
future projections of South Asian monsoon rainfall.
In the present study the variabilities in South Asian monsoon on decadal timescales
associated with decadal climate variability (DCV) e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are investigated. In ad-
dition, a study on the ability of the new generation of models in Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) (Taylor et al., 2012), to simulate South
Asian monsoon variability on decadal timescales associated with PDO is done.
Rainfall anomaly is estimated by removing the annual cycle from the gridded
rainfall data. The spatial map of temporal correlation between rainfall anomaly and
DCV indices are estimated during 1961 - 2007. In addition, significance (p-value) of
the correlation is also estimated at each grid point. The correlation between PDO
and monsoon (June - September) rainfall anomaly shows moderate negative (-0.3 to
-0.4) correlation over central Indian region at 99% significance, while negative (-0.3
to -0.5) correlation over most of the western Indian region at 99.5% significance
is observed (Figure 1.1). The composite rainfall and wind anomaly for negative
and positive phases of PDO suggest that winds anomalies are converging at regions
having above average rainfall.
5
Figure 1.1: Spatial map of correlation coefficient between PDO and (a) June-
September rainfall (b) September rainfall during 1961 - 2007
6
1.2 Spatial variation of Black Carbon and its cli-
matic implication over western and northern
Indian regions
Rohit Srivastava and Sherin Hassan Bran
Black carbon (BC) is a primary aerosol emitted directly at the source due to
incomplete combustion processes (fossil fuel and biomass burning) and therefore
much atmospheric BC is of anthropogenic origin. The average current emission
of anthropogenic BC over India was reported to be 0.7 Tg yr−1 and ranges from
0.5 to 1.0 Tg yr−1 (IPCC, 2013, references cited therein). Black carbon aerosol
strongly absorbs solar radiation, heats the air and has significant impact on the
Earth-atmosphere radiation balance. BC is the next strongest contributor to global
warming after carbon dioxide (Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2008). The absorbing
aerosols (viz., BC) and scattering aerosols (viz., sulfate) play a significant role in the
reduction of the ground reaching solar radiation (direct effect) and hence cause the
solar dimming. BC is mainly hydrophobic, however it can mixed with other water
soluble aerosols and become hydrophilic. A study by Evan et al. (2011) suggested
that the intensity of pre-monsoon Arabian Sea tropical cyclones during the period
1979–2010 got enhanced owing to simultaneous upward trend in anthropogenic black
carbon and sulfate emissions. In the present study, spatial and temporal variations
of black carbon and their radiative and climatic impacts are presented and discussed.
Spatial map of BC mass concentration over the western and northern Indian
regions during winter (December-January- February) 2008 is shown in Figure 1.2.
The higher concentration of BC are found over the source regions viz., Indo-Gangetic
basin, urban regions of Gujarat and Maharashtra. The spatial variability in BC
are well simulated in the model, however, the magnitude of the concentration is
found to be different over most of the Indian regions. Winter period average BC
concentration over Ahmedabad, an urban location in western India, was found to be
12 µg m−3 (Ramachandran and Kedia, 2010) however, the simulated value is 2 µg
m−3, which is six times lower than the observation (Figure 1.2). Similar discrepancy
in magnitude of simulated BC was also reported during 2005 – 2007 over most of
the Indian region during winter (Nair et al., 2012).
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Figure 1.2: BC mass concentration (µgm−3) simulated by (a) RegCM (b) WRF-
CHEM during winter (December, January and February) season of 2008. The mea-
sured BC concentration are also shown by circles.
References :
Evan T. A., J. P. Kossin, C. E. Chung and V. Ramanathan (2011). Arabian Sea
tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols, Nature,
479, 94 – 97.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2013. Clouds and Aerosols.
In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Boucher, O., et al. (2013),
Stocker, T. F., et al. (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U. K. and
NY, U.S.A.
Nair, V. S., et al. (2012). Simulation of South Asian aerosols for regional climate
studies, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D04209, doi:10.1029/2011JD016711.
Ramachandran, S., and S. Kedia (2010). Black carbon aerosols over an urban
region: Radiative forcing and climate impact, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D10202,
doi:10.1029/2009JD013560.
Ramanathan, V., and G. Carmichael (2008). Global and regional climate changes
due to black carbon, Nat. Geosci., 1, 221–227.
8
1.3 Application of GIS and Remote Sensing for
Sustainable Agriculture in Rukmavati River
Basin of Kachchh, Gujarat
Rohit Srivastava and Shouvik Jha and in collaboration with VRTI and Agrocel
Rukmavati River basin is coastal saline belt of Kachchh district of Gujarat.
Kachchh district has unique agro-climate due to low and erratic rainfall (380 mm
rainfall and 15 rainy days), aridity, hostile terrain and seismic instability. Arid cli-
mate with increasing salinity in water make basin less sustainable for agriculture.
In order to understand soil and water constraints, water samples were regularly col-
lected from 250 bore-wells during pre and post-monsoon seasons, whereas soil sam-
ples were collected at 3 km grid locations. Soil and water samples were analyzed for
different chemical properties. Irrigation water quality varied widely (pH: 5.84-9.67,
TDS: 2.3-9480ppm, EC: 0.3-50.3mS/cm, SAR: 0–1372me/l). Soil is mostly saline
and sodic, low in available N and P, medium in OC, and high in K. Spatial varia-
tions of parameters are analyzed and GIS based maps are prepared. The different
GIS layers of soil and water parameters are integrated and based on selective cri-
teria the irrigated basin area is divided in different suitability zones. About 56%
of irrigated basin area is found to moderate suitable for agriculture. The basin can
be developed for sustainable agriculture by adopting scientific management plan for
cropping patterns and promoting precision farming for optimal use of resources.
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Figure 1.3: Spatial variations of soil quality parameters (a) Nitrogen (N, kg/ha),
(b) Phosphorus (P, kg/ha), (c) Potassium (K, kg/ha), (d) Calcium (Ca, ppm), (e)
Sulfur (S, ppm) and (f) organic carbon (OC, %) for pre-monsoon season of 2014 in
Rukmavati River Basin.
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Chapter 2
Application and outreach activities
ICCSIR is involved in different outreach activities.
2.1 ICCSIR’s weekly weather forecast bulletin
ICCSIR is releasing weekly weather forecast bulletin based on publicly available
data and maps. The bulletin contains the spatial map of daily rainfall forecast
over India and surrounding regions. The rainfall maps are generated from NCM-
RWF’s Global Forecast System (NGFS) model for 6 days forecast. 5 day forecast
of weather parameter (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature, total cloud
cover, maximum and minimum relative humidity, wind speed and directions) over
district centers of Gujarat and Maharashtra are provided in tabular form.
ICCSIR’s weather bulletin was found to very helpful for farmers, social workers
etc.
2.2 Dissemination of current weather data
The current morning and afternoon weather data have been recorded from the me-
teorological observatory installed at VRTI campus, Mandvi, Kachchh. The data are
being disseminated to the farmers and para-workers of the region on each day.
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2.3 Satellite image over Agrocel Marine Chemical
Division (MCD) at Dhordo, Kachchh
The satellite images of Dhordo area were obtained from Landsat 8 at a interval of
2 weeks. The raw images were processed and the images of horizontal resolution of
15 m were generated over the area of interest. These processed images is very useful
in planning different activities at MCD, Agrocel Industries Ltd., Dhordo, Kachchh.
2.4 Training Programme
ICCSIR is involved in different farmers training program. ICCSIR provided the
training on role of weather and climate on agriculture. ICCSIR also provided train-
ing on role of farmer in mitigating the climate change. Weather forecasts and its
utilization for sustainable agriculture. ICCSIR also participated Farmer Training
Workshop for Sustainable Agriculture organized by National Centre for Sustainable
Development (NCCSD) under Central Research Institute on Dryland Agriculture
(CRIDA) programme. This workshop was organized at four centers in Mandvi,
Naliya, Rapar and Bhuj in Kutch region of Gujarat.
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Chapter 3
Educational activities
ICCSIR participated in different educational activities in different places in India,
� ICCSIR staffs provided lectures on different courses on Environmental Science
and Marine Science at Graduate level in Government Science College, Mandvi,
Kutch.
� ICCSIR participated as resource organization in six day “Capacity Building
Workshop on Regional Climate Modeling” organized by the Centre for Atmo-
spheric Studies during 29 December 2014 - 03 January, 2015.
� ICCSIR provided knowledge on weather to school children of Vivekanand pri-
mary school in VRTI campus.
� ICCSIR was involved in delivering lectures to students of different school/colleges
on Weather and Climate.
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Research Publication and
participation in conferences
ICCSIR published its research outcomes in various reputed National scientific bul-
letins such as:
� Aerosol Mixing States over Central Himalayan Region, Rohit Srivastava, In-
dian Aerosol Science and Technology Association Bulletin, 21, (1–2), ISSN:
0971-4570, 67–68, 2014.
� Spatial Variation of Black Carbon and its climatic implication over western
and northern Indian regions, Rohit Srivastava, and Sherin Hassan Bran, Indian
Aerosol Science and Technology Association Bulletin, 21, (1–2), ISSN: 0971-
4570, 548–549, 2014.
� Aerosol variability over south-western Himalayan region, Mudit Mishra, Mohd.
Kamran, S. Sood and Rohit Srivastava, Indian Aerosol Science and Technology
Association Bulletin, 21, (1–2), ISSN: 0971-4570, 409–410, 2014.
ICCSIR participated in various Conferences such as:
� Oral presentation entitled “Seasonal and spatial variations of black carbon over
Indian region”, TROPMET 2015 organized by Indian Meteorological Society
(IMS), during, February 15 - 18, 2015, Punjab University, Chandigarh, India.
� Oral presentation entitled “Aerosol Mixing States over Central Himalayan
Region”, Conference of Indian Aerosol Science and Technology Association,
during November 11 – 13, 2014, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India.
� Poster presentation entitled “Spatial Variation of Black Carbon and its cli-
matic implication over western and northern Indian regions”, Conference of
14
Indian Aerosol Science and Technology Association, during November 11 - 13,
2014, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India.
� Poster presentation entitled “Aerosol variability over south-western Himalayan
region”, Conference of Indian Aerosol Science and Technology Association,
during November 11 - 13, 2014, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India.
� Oral presentation entitled “Application of GIS and Remote Sensing for Sus-
tainable Agriculture in Rukmavati River Basin of Kachchh, Gujarat”, Inter-
national Symposium on New-Dimensions in Agrometeorology for Sustainable
Agriculture (NASA-2014),during 16 – 18 October, 2014, GBPUA & T Uni-
versity, Pantnagar, India.
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Chapter 4
Summary and Future plan
4.1 Summary
ICCSIR was involved on different research, outreach, training and education activi-
ties during 2014 -2015.
The major research finding during year 2014 - 2015 were as follows :
� The correlation between Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and south-west
monsoon (June - September) rainfall anomaly shows moderate negative (-0.3
to -0.4) correlation over central Indian, while negative (-0.3 to -0.5) correlation
over most of the western Indian region at 99% significance level.
� The regional climate model simulated black carbon (BC) mass concentration
was found to be two to six times lower than the observation over most part of
the western, central and norther Indian region.
� In Rukmavati river basin of Kutch region, the irrigation water quality varied
widely (pH: 5.84-9.67, TDS: 2.3-9480 ppm, EC: 0.3-50.3 mS/cm, SAR: 0–1372
me/l). Soil is mostly saline and sodic, low in available N and P, medium in
OC, and high in K. About 56% of irrigated basin area is found to moderate
suitable for agriculture.
ICCSIR was involved in different education and outreach activities :
� Dissemination of ICCSIR’s weekly weather forecasts on each Monday of the
week.
16
� Dissemination of daily current weather data to para-workers and formers in
Rukmavati River basin region.
� ICCSIR was providing high resolution satellite imagery over Dhordo Kutch to
Marine Chemical Division of Agrocel Industries Ltd.
� ICCSIR was involved in different Training programmes on weather and agri-
culture.
� ICCSIR’s staffs were also involved in educating graduate students of Govern-
ment Science College, Mandvi, Kutch on Environmental and Marine Sciences.
� ICCSIR was one of the resource organization in six days workshop on Regional
Climate Modeling at Dibrugarh University, Dibrugarh, Assam, India.
4.2 Future Plan
ICCSIR will continue its education and outreach activities and participate in differ-
ent training programs.
� Research on MoES and DST projects will continue.
� ICCSIR will be planning to research on weather forecasts and agro-met advi-
sory over village level in Rukmavati River basin of Kutch, Gujarat region.
� Estimation of carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration due to improvements in
agriculture under Rukmavati River Basin project in the basin area.
� Estimation of reduction in green house gases (GHGs) due to composting ac-
tivities.
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