Indian Transformer Market

• Transformer industry is suffering since last 2 years with low recovery and cash

loss and phase is worst then 1997-2001 phase due to higher installed capacity

• Transformer Market is growing 10% in volumes but price recovery is lower by

15% to 20% compared with 2006-07

• Also growth is 20% for voltage higher then 220kV like HVDC 765kV & Reactors

that is where Tier-1 player get better recovery

• 2013 will see small recovery as pent up demand for 220kV and below will

increase and market will grow by 15% , prices should improve by 3% point

Transformer Industry Status

Capacity & Demand

Loss Zone Loss ZoneProfit Zone

Ind

ex

MV

A

Note – Index taken with base of Prior 94-96 years, Source IEEMA

Demand

Capacity

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

prior to 94-95

1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16

Contribution pts Demand Capacity

Additional capacity of 50% Is the trigger

•Capacity is 280000 MVA

•Demand is 200000 MVA

•Addition of 50 % +

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Sales Price (Comparison) Material cost (Comparison) Contibution Points

Ind

ex

Movement of Material Cost & Sales Price & Contribution

While Material cost has increase by 7%, the Sales price has come down 20%, this explains present crisis of industry.

Expected to

improve

In 2013-14 by

%

•Price drop is 20%+ thus shrinking

contribution to avg. 16% or less

•33 •13

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

60

80

100

120

140

160

prior to 94-95

1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16

Sales price (Comparison) Material cost (Comparison) Contribution pts Demand Capacity

Identical graph, when Demand & Capacity & Contributions seem together

Loss Zone Loss Zone/BE or

marginal profit

Profit Zone

Ind

ex

MV

A

Note – Index taken with base of Prior 94-96 years, Source IEEMA

Demand

Capacity

� This will trigger action from the industries in year 2012-13 and in

2014-15, which will be a)Capacity reduction b)Cost cutting c)Better

terms of payment d)Price increase by 3-4%

Manufacturers Across India

Kerala Electrical & Allied Engg.

EFG

Danish Private Limited

•Andhra Pradesh

•Karnataka

•Tamil Nadu

•Gujarat

•Kerala

•Maharashtra

•Madhya Pradesh

•Rajasthan

•West Bengal

PME, UP

Kotsons, UP

East India Udyog,

Mirzapur Electrical Ind

ABB

Transformers & Rectifiers

Voltamp Transformer

AREVA T&D

Bharat Bijlee

EMCO

Kirloskar Power Equipment Ltd

High Volt Electricals

Universal Transformers

Southern Power Equipment Company

Kamath Transformers

Venkateswara Electrical Industries (p) ltd

Indo – Tech transformers

P.S Electricals

Transformers & Electricals Kerala

Andrew Yule & Co

Marson's Limited

RTS Power Corporation

Vijai Electricals

Pan-Electro TechnicEnterprises

The Thana Electric Supply Company

Technical Associates, Uttaranchal

, Accurate Transformers, Uttaranchal

Rajasthan Transformers & Switchgears , Delhi

•Uttar Pradesh

Tesla Transformers Limited

Crompton Greaves

BHEL

•Orissa

Alfa Transformers Ltd

Orissa Transformers Ltd

Aarkay Transformers

•Delhi

•Uttaranchal

Power Transformer Market Segmentation

KV Ranges

PGCIL NTPC+ Large IPP STATE UTILITY IPP renewable part INDUSTRY Grand

Total

(MVA)Units MVA Total Units MVA Total Units MVA Total Units MVA Total Units MVA Total

765 kV20 270 5400 20 270 5400 10 270 2700 10 270 2700 10 270 2700

2390010 500 5000 10 270 2700

Total 30 10400 30 8100 10 2700 10 2700 10 2700

400kV24 315 7560 14 270 3780 48 315 15120 10 270 2700 15 270 4050

412606 500 3000 10 315 3150 6 500 3000 10 160 1600

Total 30 10560 24 6930 54 18120 10 2700 25 5650

Reactors30 80 2400 5 80 400

460010 120 1200 5 120 600

Total 40 3600 10 1000

220kV

6 100 600 15 80 1200 68 160 10880 40 50 2000 30 50 1500

3358020 200 4000

40 50 2000

114 100 11400 20 100 2000

Total 6 600 1200 242 28280 40 2000 50 3500

132kV &

66kV

10 100 1000 15 80 1200 240 50 12000 100 50 5000

39284

30 50 1500 60 63 3780 50 40 2000

200 40 8000 50 20 1000

30 50 1500

54 16 864

44 10 440 100 10 1000

Total 10 1000 45 2700 628 26584 0 0 300 9000

Grand

Total

(MVA)

26160 19930 756847400 to 9000

MVA

20850 to 25000

MVA142624

Competitor Market Matrix

Total production for MPT & LPT is around 175,000MVA + Imports around 20,000MVA & Export around 20,000MVA = 215,000MVA

MVA BBL Vijai T&R EMCO Voltamp

Prolec

GE AREVA ABB Siemens IMP Kanohar

Tech

Asso TELK BHEL CGL Kirloskar

CEN UTILITY 550 1100 2500 900 375 8750 3600 4000 500 400 0 600 11200 8400

SEB 6050 6600 4000 4500 1500 300 3750 1600 800 3000 2400 3150 4500 9800 8400 240

EPC 2200 2200 2000 1800 2250 750 6250 1200 800 750 800 0 600 2800 4200 240

INDUSTRIAL 2200 1100 1500 1800 3375 1800 6250 1600 2400 750 600 350 300 1400 7000 1920

PROD 11000 11000 10000 9000 7500 3000 25000 8000 8000 5000 4000 3500 6000 28000 28000 2400

•Production by end User (MVA)

Competitor Focus by End User Segment

� Tier-1 players like AREVA, Siemens, ABB etc., concentrate on Central

Utilities.

� Whereas Tier 2 players like BBL, Vijay, T&R, EMCO concentrate on SEBs

� BHEL and CGL are prominent in both Central and State Utilities

� Industry segment is small market size about 35000 MVA+

Indian Transformer Market

Transformer Market, India – 250,000MVA

REC, 36,000, 14%

Dry type, 10,000, 4%

Oil DT, 29,000, 12%

Oil PT, 175,000, 70%

•Imports 20000 MVA extra so 195000 MVA

Indian Transformer MarketPower Transformer Market, India – 175,000 MVA+

20,000 Import + 20,000 MVA export

Cental25%

SEBs39%

EPC15%

Industrial21%

�SEB’s (State Utilities) are 40% of the market

�400kV, 765kV are 42% of the market

�Industry only 20 %

BBL7%

Vijai8%

T&R7%

Voltamp8%Areva

22%

BHEL10%

CGL14%

Others24%

EPC – 29,000 MVA

Areva21%

ABB8%

Siemens9%

BHEL26%

T&R6%

CGL20%

Others10%

Central Utility – 43,000 MVA

BBL10%

Vijai11%

T&R7%

EMCO8%

Areva6%

IMP5%

Kanohar4%

Techasso5%

TELK7% BHEL

16%

CGL14%

Others7%

State Utility - 70,000MVA

Areva18%

CGL20%

Siemens7%

Voltamp10%

BBL6%

EMCO5%

Kirloskar6%

ABB5%

Prolec GE5%

Others18%

Industrial – 35,000 MVA

Power Transformer Market -170,000MVA

�ABB, Siemens, BHEL, CGL, ALSTOM focus on central utility & IndustrialMarket + 765kV and 400kV + Reactor + HVDC

�Tier 2 players concentrate on EPC & State utility market

•Power Transformer Market – 170,000 MVA

765kV16%

400kV26%

220kV26%132kV

32%

Chinese20%

CGL25%

ABB*13%

Areva22%

BHEL10%

T&R10%

765kV - 24,000MVA

CGL17%

ABB*15%

Areva15%Siemens

15%

BHEL17%

TELK5%

Vijay5% Others

11%

400kV - 40,000MVA

CGL8%

Areva9%

BHEL13%

TELK5%

Emco9%BBL

9%

T&R8%

Vijay10%

Voltamp4%

Kanohar5%

IMP5%

Others15%

220kV - 40,000MVA

CGL6%

Areva6%

BHEL8%

TELK6%

Emco9%

BBL10%Voltamp

7%

T&R10%

Vijay10%

Kanohar7%

IMP7%

Techasso4%

Others10%

132kV & 66kV - 50,000MVA

�400kV & 765kV market is covered by ABB, AREVA, Siemens, CGL, T&R &Chinese manufacturers

�230kV & 132kV are crowded market with many players

Distribution Transformer Matrix (by MVA)

VoltampVoltamp

Total MVA – 10000MVA Total MVA – 29000 MVA

Distribution Transformer Matrix

Total MVA – 39000MVATotal Value – $M680

Competitor’s Production & Revenue

Range BHEL CGL Areva ABB Siemens L&T Vijai Emco T&R BBL Voltamp IMP Kanohar Tech Ass

Prolec

GE Kirloskar Aditya

Own production 28000 25000 21000 10000 8000 11000 9000 10000 10000 7500 5000 4000 3500 3000 2400 2000

Outsourced (MVA)

MPT -

500, DT -

500 Nil

MPT -

800, DT

200

MPT -

800, DT -

500

MPT -

2000, DT

-500

MPT -

4000, DT

- 1000 Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil

Total Sales (MVA) 29000 25000 22000 11300 10500 5000 11000 9000 10000 10000 7500 5000 4000 3500 3000 2400 2000

Notes - ABB, Siemens – When HVDC order comes, own system becomes major part, Aditya Produces 1000 MVA for CGL

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Sales to other EPC

Own System consumption

Industry

State

Central

Own Consumption

and Central Focus

Mainly State Focused

� Siemens has EPC, the own consumption is around 3000MVA, they procure 2500MVA from outside

� ABB having order for HVDC from their own EPC 3000MVA, they procure 2500MVA from outside

� Areva has EPC, the own consumption is around 4000MVA, they procure 2500MVA from outside

� L&T procure 4000MVA from outside + 5000MVA smaller EPC very competitive = 16500MVA

Thank you very much