india’s economic development – challenges to the young by dr t.h. chowdary director: center for...
TRANSCRIPT
India’s Economic Development – Challenges to the Young
By DR T.H. CHOWDARY
Director: Center for Telecom Management and StudiesFellow: Tata Consultancy Services
Chairman: Pragna Bharati (intellect India )Former: Chairman & Managing Director
Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited &Information Technology Advisor, Government of Andhra Pradesh
T: +91(40) 6667-1191(O) 2784-6137& 2784-3121®F: +91 (40) 6667-1111
HYD: 23 Feb 2014
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3 categories of people
• Entitlement• Employment • Entrepreneurship
What do you want to be?
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Which is the source of all wealth
• Nature• Sunlight• Ores, geysers, water• Rivers, forests, seas, mountains, deserts,
marshes and fawna
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How we convert natural resources into products/services
• Science& Technology• R&D & Inventions • Industries• Agriculture• Capital ( comes from savings)• Work ( labour, machines)
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7000
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1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2012
Sour
ce: A
ngus
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P.M
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World GDP per Person, 1000=100S & T for Wealth Creation
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World Population and the Poor
Year Population % of the Poor1820 1.1 billion 85%1980 5 billion 30%2000 6 billion 20%2007 6.5 bln 18%2012 70 bln 15%
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India’s Share of World’s Industrial Production
India Britain 1830 17.5 9.6 1900 1.7 18.6•Annual Revenue of Aurangzeb: $ 450 m
(France’s Louis XIV :$ 40m)•Pliny, Roman Historian called India
“The sink of the world’s gold”
INDIA WAS THE WEALTHIEST
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Time taken to double the per capita income (1)
Country UK USA Japan Indonesia S.Korea China
Years 58 47 33 17 13 10
Since 1780 1840 1880 1965 1970 1978
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Time taken to double the per capita income (2)
GDP Growth Population Time taken
3.5% 2.0% 50 Y
6.5% 1.8% 15 Y
10.0% 1.0% 7 Y
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Poverty came downCountry Indonesia Malaysia Thailand S/pore India
From % 58 37 49 24 75
(1972) (1973) (1962) (1972) (1951)
To % 17 14 26 10 30 (1982) (1987) (1986) (1982) (2002)
Life expectancy up from 56 to 71 during this period* UPA II puts the poor at 66% under Food Security Act & Programme
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India - Growth of GDP; Population; Per Capita Income (PCI) &
Years for doubling PCI
Period GDP POP PCI YRS1951 to 2000
3.5 2.8 0.7 70
2004-07 9.0 1.8 7.2 102013 4.8 1.8 3.0 25•Lesson from China: Control population during period of growth [JRD’s advice to Nehru in 1950s dismissed.]•BPL ratio is the index: in India it came down from 70% in the 1950s to about 30% now [BPL ratio in A P is 85% according to white ration cards & increasing.]
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Gross World Product: in $ Trillion
Year 2005 2010 2014
$T 32 40 60
Share of Services Sector
$18 $25 $40
% Traded 30% 40% 45%
* 2014-15 India’s trade ( Ex + Imp) will be 31% of GDP
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Jobs lost/created in the last 10 years in different sectors in India
• 2000-2012 jobs grew by a mere 2% p.a• Pop. growing @ 1.8% i.e adding about 20 mln • Job creation never> 10 mln• Unproductive spend GOI’s Interest Payments Rs.
3,64,244 cr• Welfare spend & subsidies Rs. 5,00,000 cr• Subsidies (Rs. 2,42,255 cr in 2013-14) (i/c Haj Rs. 1000 cr)• Give aways NREGA- Rs. 40,000 cr SHGTHC_CTMS
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Improper Spending• Farmers loans- 2008 Rs. 70,000 cr• Indira Awas• Old age pensions• Pregnant women nourishment• Fee Reimbursement producing “certified but not qualified”.
Engineers etc.• 10 lakh unemployed B.Techs in A.P alone• 85% (Rajiv’s) welfare becomes black money Rs. 4,00,000 cr p.a • Under spending :
Defence R&D• China : $148 1%• India : $38 2%
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India’s Share in the World Trade and Wealth
Year Wealth Trade
1701 22.6% 25%1947 NA 2.4%1990 NA 0.4%2003 1.5% 0.8%2005 1.6% 1.0%2014 3.5% 2.7%
INDIA WAS THE WEALTHIEST
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What we need to do
• Link up rivers & national water grids• National &Highways = Rs. 70,000 RKM• National Power Grid• 600 new towns/ cities• 100 ports & harbours• 200 airports• Solar Power Generation on all multi-storeyed buildings (
Germany, Israel)• Electric cars (Petrol/diesel stations become Battery
Replace Stations (Israel, Denmark…THC_CTMS
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What we need to do contd..
• NCC in all colleges• 2 Y service in Armed Forces Obligatory• Residential Universities• 5,000 PPP Hospitals• 1000 more Medical colleges• 500 more Nursing colleges
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Job Growth 2000-’122% per year
Sector Jobs in mln 2011-12
Share in Total Annual change
Agriculture 224 48 -0.001
Manufacturing 60 13 4
Construction 50 11 17
Trade, Hotel 53 11 4
Transport, storage coms.
23 5 6
Other services 53 11 4
All 468 100 2.2
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VRO, VRA applicants (A.P)9-02-14 written test
Jobs Exam
VRO 1,651 11,84,234
714/ for 1 job
VRA 4,305 88,609
20/ for 1 job
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Total 12.72 lakhs wrote
VRO jobs Applicants wrote
Karimnagar 83 81,825
Nalgonda 68 73,960
Mahboobnagar 103 71,302
Guntur 83 68,072
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