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8/14/2019 INDIASPEECH GoldMarketSituation&Outlook SpeechtotheSixthAnnualIndiaInternationalGoldConvention Goa,India–Se…

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INDIASPEECH

GoldMarketSituation&Outlook

SpeechtotheSixthAnnualIndiaInternationalGoldConvention

Goa,India–September5th,2009

by

JeffreyNichols,ManagingDirector

AmericanPreciousMetalsAdvisors

Thankyou,Mr.Chairmanforyourkindintroduction...andmanythanksalso

totheconferenceorganizersforinvitingmetoparticipateinthisprestigiousgathering.

Itisagreathonortobeheretoday,notonlytosharemyviews–buttolearnfromyou,andmakemanynewfriendsintheIndianGoldCommunity.

Afewweeksago,inpreparationfortoday’spresentation,IaskedtheconferenceorganizerwhatIshouldtalkabout.Hesaid,Ishouldtalkabout15minutesinthemorning...andabout10minutesintheafternoon.

Onlythendidhesay:“Inthemorningtalkaboutglobalsupplyanddemand.Intheafternoontalkaboutthepriceoutlook.”

PriceFirst

Tomanygold‐marketanalysts,itmayappeartobeanartificialdistinctiontoseparateadiscussionaboutsupply/demandfundamentalsandthepriceoutlookwithaluncheonbreak.

Traditionaleconomictheorysaysthepriceofacommodityisafunctionofsupplyanddemand.ButI’dliketosuggestanalternativepointofview:

Intheworldofgold,pricecomefirst...andchangesinthesupply/demandfundamentalsfollow.

Inotherwords,thesupplyanddemandforgold–asmeasurablequantities–aremoreafunctionoftheyellowmetal’sprice,ratherthantheotherwayaround.



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Meanwhile,thepriceitselfisareflectionofthecollectivepsycheofthemarketplaceanditsmillionsofparticipantsworldwide.Simplyput,anounceofgoldisworthexactlywhatpeoplethinkitshouldbeworth–andthesupply/demandfundamentalsadjustthemselvestothispricelevel.

I’mmarriedtoapsychiatrist.IfIwanttoknowthefuturepriceofgold,Iaskher!

I’maneconomist.Ifshewantstoknowwhatthepricemeansforsupplyanddemand,sheasksme!

GoldisarareandunusualcommoditybecauseitisfirstandforemostafinancialandmonetaryassetwhetheritisheldinbarsandcoinsbyWesterninvestorsandcentralbanks,orjewelrybyIndianhousewivesandindividualinvestorsandsaversacrossAsiaandtheMiddleEast.

ConsiderthesharepriceofanycompanythattradesontheNewYorkStockExchangeorhereinMumbaioranywhereelseforthatmatter.Thenumberofsharesoutstandingformostpubliccompaniesmaybefixedforyears...butthesharepricegoesupordownbasedsolelyonwhatthecollectivewisdomofthemarketdeemsfairandappropriate.

Althoughforgold,thenumberofouncesmaynotbequitesofixed,changesinsupply,thatistosaynewsupplyfrommineproduction,areverysmallrelativetotheentirestockofgoldoutstanding.

Above-GroundStocks

Theentireabove‐groundstockofgoldisestimatedtoberoughly165,000tons...andthisstockgrowspredictablyfromnewmineproductionbysome2,300to2,400tonsayear.

Prospectivechangesinannualmineoutput,atleastforthenextfewyears,arealsofairlypredictable...andarealreadyreflectedintoday’sgoldprice.

Ifnotthegrowthofnewsupply,whatisitthatsetsthepriceofgold?

Itischangesinthewillingnessanddesireofexistingandprospectivegoldholders–individualandinstitutionalinvestors,ownersofgoldjewelryandotheritems,andcentralbanksandotherofficial‐sectorinstitutions–thatsettheprice.



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And,thoughit’snotquitethissimple,itischangesinthepricethatcausechangesinthevarioussectorsofsupplyanddemand–nottheotherwayaround!

Themaincategoriesofsupplyanddemandaremineproduction,oldscrap

arisingfromtherecyclingofjewelryandothergold‐bearingitems,jewelryfabrication,netofficial‐sectortransactions,andnetinvestmentbyindividualsandinstitutionsinbarsandcoins.

MineProductioninDecline

Mineproductionpeakedin2001at2,645tons,anall‐timehigh,andhasbeenfallinggraduallyeversince–adowntrendthatisexpectedtocontinueatleastforthenextfewyears.Thisyearweexpectnewminesupplyofsome2,370tonsandtwoyearshence,in2011,itwilllikelyhavedwindledtothe

neighborhoodof2,275tons.

Overthelongterm–lookingoutfiveto10yearsorlonger–mineoutputisareflectionofpriceversustherapidlyrisingcostofproductionandtheincreasingdifficultyandexpenseinfindingnewdepositslargeenoughtooffsetthelossofproductionfromtheongoingdepletionandexhaustionofexistingmines.

Inaddition,increasinglystringentenvironmentalregulationsareaddingtocostsandunfriendlygovernmentattitudestowardminingorforeign

ownershipinsomecountriesarediscouragingexplorationanddevelopment.

Itshouldalsobementionedthatthestock‐marketcrashandcontinuingglobalcreditcrisishasslowedfundingandretardedgold‐minedevelopmentinmanycountries.

However,oneexplanationtotheon‐goingdeclineinworldwidemineproductionisthatpricesinthepastcoupleofdecadessimplyhavenotbeenhighenoughtoencourageexplorationandminedevelopmentsufficienttoreplacethedwindlingeconomicreservesinthehistoric“bigfour”gold

producingcountries–SouthAfrica,theUnitedStates,Canada,andAustralia.

Interestingly,thelocusofworldgold‐mineproductionisshiftingfromthe“bigfour”totheemergingmarketnations.China,Peru,Russia,andIndonesiatogetheraccountedfor20percentoftotalworldminesupplytenyearsago.Today,theirshareisnow35percent–andtheirshareofworldwidemineproductionwillcontinuetoincreaseforyearstocome.



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Chinabecametheworld’snumberonegold‐producingcountryin2007–duenotonlytotherapidpaceofminedevelopmentandthecontinuingrationalizationoftheindustry...butalsoduetothecollapseofSouthAfricangoldproductionasthatcountry’smineshavebeenrapidlydepletedandthe

difficultiesofoperatingatdeeperdepthshaverestrictedmining.Althoughthereismuchexplorationandminedevelopmentactivityinallofthesecountries–andmorecanbeexpectedaspricesriseandaccesstofinancingimproves–itwillnotbesufficienttoreversethedowntrendinglobalgold‐mineproductionforatleastthenextfiveyears–andlikelylonger.

Evenifbigpriceincreasesoccurinthenextyearortwosufficienttoprovokearushofexplorationandminedevelopment,forprojectslargeenoughtomakeabigdifference,itusuallytakesfivetotenyearsorlongertomovefromexplorationanddevelopmenttolarge‐scaleproduction.

TheRiseofSecondarySupply

Unlike“primary”outputfrommines,“secondary”supply–therecyclingofoldscrap–mostlyfromjewelry–reactsquicklytochangesinthepriceofgoldbeyondcertainlevelsthatareseenbyholdersasattractive“selling”points.

Lastyear,aspricesrosethroughthe$800,$900,and$1,000levels,holdersofoldgoldjewelryandotheritems–hereinIndiaandelsewhereinAsia,aswellasintheMiddleEast,intheUnitedStates,Europe,andvirtuallyeverywhere–

madeacollectivejudgmentthatthepricewastoohigh.Asaresult,scrapsuppliesexploded,somuchsothattherewasafloodofmetalintothemarket,makingthehigherpricelevelsunsustainable.

Scraprecycling,whichonaveragerunsabout1000tonsayearclimbedtodoublethatrateinthefourthquarterof2008andthefirstquarterof2009.

Inthepastcoupleofyears,theriseinjewelryscraphasalsobeenareflectionofeconomichardship,highunemployment,adesperateneedforcashbysomeholdersofgoldjewelry,andthecollapseofequityandrealestatevalues.

HereinIndia,asyouknow,high‐karat“investment‐grade”jewelryisboughtandheldasmuchasaninvestmentandsavingsmediumasitisasanadornment.Indeed,asaresultofyourcountry’sstrongculturalaffinitytogold,inmanyyears,Indiahasbeentheworld’slargestandmostimportantgold‐consumingmarket.



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Butlatelastyearandearlythisyear,Indiainsteadbecameamajorsourceofsupply,asmanyholdersofgoldjewelrysoldtheiroldbangles,chains,andthelikebacktothemarket–respondingtothehistorichighrupee‐denominatedgoldprices.

Aroundtheworld,evenintheUnitedStatesandEuropewherejewelryistypicallylowkaratage(andhardlyworthitsweightingold),peoplehavescavengedtheirdresserdrawersforoldbraceletsandtheliketosellforimmediatecash.

Thisdesiretorecycleandcashinhasbeenfacilitatedbytherapidexpansionofascrap‐collectinginfrastructurewithtraditionaljewelryretailers,shoppingcenterkiosks,anditinerantscrapbuyersvyingforthebusinessandmakingiteasyforpeopletoselltheiroldgolditems.

TheFallofJewelry

Let’sturnfromoldscrap–wherejewelryisasourceofsupply–tojewelryfabrication,whichuntilrecentyearshasbeenasteadyandreliablesourceofgolddemand.

Goldjewelryfabricationdemandreachedanall‐timein1997at3,342tons–and,sincethen,hasbeentrendingdownward.Thisyear,Iexpectworldwidejewelryfabricationdemandwilltotallittlemorethan2,100tons.

Muchofthedeclineinjewelryofftakehasoccurredsince2001andreflectsthesubstantialriseingoldprices–bothinU.S.dollartermsandinlocalcurrenciesformanyimportantgeographicjewelrymarkets.

Withthecontinuingcreditcrisisandglobalrecession,demandhasalsobeenhithardbythecollapseinretailsales,especiallyintheUnitedStatesandEurope.Inaddition,andofimportancetothenear‐termoutlook,thesteepdeclineinfabricationhasbeenexaggeratedbytherunningdownofinventoriesonhandatmanufacturers,distributors,andretailers.

Again,itisimportanttodistinguishbetweentheWest,wherejewelryisboughtasconsumerorluxuryitemsandtheEastwhere,asinIndia,jewelryhasimportantinvestment,savings,andculturalcharacteristics.

IlookforwardtolearningmorefrommyIndiancolleaguesatthisconferenceabouttheprospectsforjewelryconsumptioninyourlocalmarket.



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Ingeneral,Iexpectamodestrecoveryinworldwidejewelrydemand,reflectingtheimprovingeconomicenvironmentinsomeofthedevelopingmarkets–especiallyIndiaandChina–andsupportedalsobysomerebuildingofinventories...butthisrecoverywillbemutedbytheexpectedriseinthe

metal’spriceoverthenextfewyears.OfficialSectorGoldPolicy

Let’sturnourattentiontotheofficialsector.Asmanyofyouknow,centralbanksandtheIMFhavebeenahottopicintheworldofgoldthispastyear.

Ibelievewearenowatakeyturningpointinthemodernhistoryofgoldasanofficialreserveasset.Centralbanksattitudeswithrespecttogoldarebecomingincreasinglypositive.Afteryearsofpersistentnetsalesbycentralbanksintheaggregate,theofficialsectormaysoonbecomeanetpurchaserof

goldfromthemarket.

Infact,ifweincludesovereignwealthfunds–whicharenon‐centralbankgovernment‐ownedinvestmentinstitutions–theofficialsectormayalreadybeanetbuyerofgold.

Onaverage,thecentralbanksoftheworldholdabout10percentoftheirinternationalreservesingold...butthereisgreatdisparityfromcountrytocountryandregiontoregion.

ThemajorEuro‐zonenationstogetherholdabout55percentoftheirassetsingold.Incontrast,theAsiannationsasagroup(includingIndia)holdonlyabouttwopercentoftheirreservesingold.ChinahasaboutoneandahalfpercentofitsreserveassetsingoldandRussiaholdsaboutfourpercentingold.

Forthepastthreedecadesbeginninginthemid‐1970s,goldhasbeenunderthethreatofmassivesalesbytheworld’sgold‐richcentralbanksandbytheInternationalMonetaryFundaswell.Infact,theofficialsectorhasbeenanetsellerofgoldeachandeveryyearsince1989.

Attimes,officialsales–andthethreatofmoretocome–havecontributedtonegativesentimentinthemarketplacewiththepricetypicallyfallingwheneveroneoranothercentralbankannouncedasalesprogram.



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Thiswasseenmostdramaticallyin1999when,muchtoitsrecentembarrassment,theBankofEnglandsoldoverhalfitsofficialgoldreservesatanaveragepriceofabout$275anounce!

OtherEuropeancentralbanks–amongthemSwitzerland,France,Italy,Spain,

Portugal,andtheNetherlands–followedBritain,togethersellingabout3900tonsintotaloverthenext10years.

Realizingthattheirgoldsaleswerehavingaconsiderabledisruptiveaffectonthemarketandthemetal’sprice,theEuropeancentralbanksannouncedinSeptember1999theiragreementtolimitfuturegoldsalestonomorethan400tonsperyearoverthenextfive‐yearperiod.

ThisfirstCentralBankGoldAgreement(alsoknownastheWashingtonAgreement)wasfollowedbythesecondCentralBankGoldAgreement,which

limitedsalesbytheEuropeansignatorynationsto500tonsperyearforanotherfiveyears.

Justafewweeksago,theEuropeanCentralBankand18othercentralbanksannouncedathirdCentralBankGoldAgreementthatcapsthegroup’saggregatesalesnowagainat400tonsperyearforanotherfiveyears.

AllofthismayprovetobeirrelevantbecausetheEuropeancentralbankshavenotbeeninclinedtosellmuchgoldthispastyear–andmyguessisthattheywillnotsellmuchatallduringthenextfewyears.

Foronething,thepatternofsalesinrecentyearssuggeststhatthosecentralbanksmosteagertosellhavealreadydoneso.Foranother,manycentralbankersarebullishonthemetalanddon’twanttosellanappreciatingasset.

Moreover,centralbanksthathavesoldlargequantitiesofgoldinthepastdecadelookfoolishindeedasthemetal’spricehasmovedhigherandthevalueoftheirU.S.dollarreserveshasdeclined.

EuropeancentralbanksalesinthisfinalyearofthesecondCentralBankGold

Agreement,endinginjustaboutthreeweeks,willprobablytotalnomorethan150or160tonsversusthe500tonsallowed.

IbelievethedeclineingoldsalesbytheEuropeancentralbanksreflectsarenewedrespectfortheyellowmetalasareserveassetandreliablestoreofvalue.



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TheEuropeanCentralBank,inannouncingthelatestAgreementsaid,“Goldremainsanimportantelementoftheglobalmonetarysystem.”

TheSwissNationalBank,asignatorytotheAgreement,addedthatit“hasnoplansforanyfurthergoldsalesintheforeseeablefuture.”

GermanyandItaly,thetwobiggestholdersofofficialgoldaftertheUnitedStatesandtheIMF,havebothimpliedtheyhavenointentiontoreducetheirgoldreserves.

And,perhapsaharbingerofthingstocome,theEuropeanCentralBankalsoreportedrecentlythatoneofitsmembers(andasignatoryoftheCentralBankGoldAgreement)recentlypurchasedgold,goingagainstthetrendofthepastdecade.

TheInternationalMonetaryFundhasalsomadenewswithitsplanstosell403.3tonsofgoldtosupportlendingtothepoorestcountries.IMFmembershipisexpectedtoapprovetheseprospectivesalesbeforeitsannualmeetingthisOctober.

IMFstrategistshavesuggestedsalesmightoccurgraduallyovertwoorthreeyears.Othersbelieveall403tonsmaybesold“offthemarket”directlytooneorafewcentralbanks–withChina,Russia,India,Brazil,ortheGulfstatesmentionedaspossiblebuyers.

Importantly,thenewCentralBankGoldAgreementincorporatesthesesalesbytheIMF,eventhoughtheFundisnotasignatory.

Morespecifically,theAgreement“recognize(s)theintentionoftheIMF...andnotedthatsuchsalescanbeaccommodatedwithinthe(Agreement)ceiling.”Inotherwords,totalsalesbytheEuropeancentralbanksandtheIMFcannotexceed400tonsperyearor2000tonsoverthefive‐yeartermoftheAgreement.

Toalargeextent,goldsalesbytheIMFarealreadyanticipatedandfactored

intothecurrentprice.However,directsales–offthemarket–tooneormorecentralbankswouldbeconfirmationthatcentralbankattitudesareshiftinginfavorofgoldandwouldlikelyhaveapositiveaffectonthemetal’sprice.

ThebignewsofthepastyearhasbeenannouncementsfrombothChinaandRussiathattheyhavebeenbuyinggoldfromtheirdomesticmineproduction–



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importantlydemonstratingthatlargecentralbankscangraduallybuygoldwithoutdisruptingthemarket.

ThepastApril,Chinatoldtheworldithadpurchased454tonssince2003,bringingitstotalofficialholdingsto1,054tons–stilllessthantwopercentof

itstotalofficialreserves.

IbelieveChinacontinuestobuygoldfromdomesticproductionatarateofatleast75tonsayear–butgoldpurchasesthisyearhavenotyetbeentransferredtothecentralbankandhavenotyetbeenreportedasofficialreserves.

[Lookingahead,asChina’sdomesticmineproductionrisesfromyeartoyear,itsofficialpurchasesmayverywellincreaseatasimilarpercentagerate.]

Russia,likeChina,hasalsobeenbuyinggoldforofficialreservesfromitsowndomesticmineproduction,whichthisyearshouldtotalcloseto190tons.PrimeMinisterPutinhassaidthatRussiashouldhold10percentofitsofficialreservesingoldbullionversusthefourpercentthatitheldatmidyear.Somereportssuggestthecountryhasaddedsome40to50tonstoitsofficialreservessofarthisyearwhileotherreportsputpurchasesthisyearat90to100tons.

Lastyear,speakingatagoldconferenceinShanghai,ItoldtheChinesetheyshouldbeaddingtotheirofficialreservegoldholdings.Today,Isaythesame

totheReserveBankofIndia,withonlyfourpercentofitsofficialassetsnowingold.Totheextentthatyoucanbuygoldwithoutdisruptingtheworldmarket,doso.

Ilookforwardtoreturningtothespeaker’srostrumthisafternoontodiscussinvestmentandthefuturepriceofgold.

AFTERNOONPRESENTATION–PRICEOUTLOOK:

TheExpansionofInvestment

Whilechangesingold’scommodityfundamentalsareimportant–particularlytothoseofusinthetrade–itisdevelopmentsintheinvestmentarenathatwillhavethegreatestimpactontheevolutionofthemarketandonthemetal’sprice.



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Beforediscussingthemacroeconomicenvironmentanditsimplicationsforthefuturepriceofgold,let’sfocusbrieflyononeveryimportantinstitutionaldevelopment:

Theintroductionandgrowingpopularityofexchange‐tradedfunds(ETFs)

havechangedthegoldmarketinaveryimportantstructuralandfundamentalwaythatisnotyetwellappreciatedorunderstoodbymanyobserversofthegoldscene.

GoldETFsaregold‐backedstock‐marketsecuritiesrepresentingownershipinatrustdesignedtotracktheupsanddownsofthemetal’sprice.Despitesomerumorstothecontrary,goldETFsarebacked100percentbyphysicalbullionheldindepositoriesonbehalfofETFinvestors.

Importantly,goldETFsarebought,sold,andtradejustlikeequitiesonastock

exchange–yettheyavoidthetax,storage,andotherdifficultiesassociatedwithowningphysicalgold.

Byfacilitatinggoldinvestmentandownershiptheyhave,withoutadoubt,broughtsignificantnumbersofnewparticipantstothemarket–notjustindividualsbuthedgefunds,pensionfunds,andotherinstitutionalinvestors.

SomuchsothatbullionheldindepositoriesonbehalfofETFinvestorstotaledmorethan1,667tonsinlateAugust,morethanthecentralbanksofeitherSwitzerlandorChina.

However,therapidgrowthofgoldexchange‐tradedfundsisatwo‐edgedswordforgold,increasingvolatilitybothupanddown.Remember,ETFinvestorscanjustaseasilyexitthemarket,sellingtheirgoldasquicklyastheymightsellanyequity–andsomedaymanyETFinvestorsprobablywill!

It’stheEconomy

AsIdiscussedearliertoday,thefuturepriceofgold–atleastoverthelongterm–haslittletodowithmineproduction,orsecondarysupply,oranyof

theother“commodity”fundamentalsofgoldsupplyanddemand.Remember,goldisfirstandforemostafinancialormonetaryassetheldasasavingsmedium,storeofvalue,andinvestment.

Assuch,overthelongterm,itspriceisdeterminedbythereal(orinflation‐adjusted)rateofreturnonothercompetingfinancialassetsversusthe



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expectedrateofreturnongolditself–wheretheexpectedreturnissimplythemarket’sowncollectiveforecastofitsfutureprice.

RealinterestratesarealsoaprecursoroftheU.S.dollar’sperformanceonworldcurrencymarketsandfutureinflationathome–sincelowornegative

realratesindicateareflationarymonetarypolicyandhighrealinterestratesindicatearestrictivemonetarypolicy...anditismonetarypolicyandmoney‐supplygrowththatultimatelyaffectsgold,inflation,andthedollar.

ThehistoricaldatashowthattheU.S.dollargoldpriceisinverselyrelatedtothereal(orinflationadjusted)rateofreturnonU.S.Treasurysecurities.

Notsurprisingly,thecurrentbullmarketforgoldthatbeganin2001(withgoldnear$255anounce)has,forthemostpart,beenaperiodofnegativeorlowrealinterestrates.

Infact,intheyearsofmarket‐determinedgoldprices(sinceAugust1971whenPresidentNixonclosedthegoldwindow)eachandeverytimetherealinflation‐adjustedthree‐monthU.S.Treasurybillratefellbelowzerointonegativeterritory,theU.S.dollargoldpriceroseoverthesubsequent12‐monthperiod.

Thegreatbullmarketforgoldinthelate1970sculminatinginthe1980highnear$875anouncewasaperiodofnegativerealinterestratesintheUnitedStates.And,gold’srunupinlate2007andearly2008–anadvancethatsaw

thepricerisebrieflyover$1,030anounce–wasagainaperiodofnegativerealinterestrates.

Today,real“inflation‐adjusted”interestratesacrossarangeofmaturitiesareagainnegative...so,ifhistoryisaguide,wecanexpectthepriceofgoldtotrendhigheroverthenextyear.

Althoughmanyeconomists,politicians,investors,andnewsreportersarebeginningtotalkabouteconomicrecoveryintheUnitedStates,thosethatareseeing“greenshoots”inmyviewarelookingthrough“rose‐colored”

eyeglasses...andthereissignificantriskofa“double‐dip”recessionwithfurthercontractionandaseconddown‐legyettocome.

Sure,WallStreethasenjoyedagoodrunascorporateAmericacutexpensesbylayingoffmillionsofworkers...butsmallbusinesses,whicharethebackboneoftheAmericaneconomyaredying...andrecoverisagonizingly



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slowintermshouseholdincome,unemployment,andothermeasuresofwellbeing.

Withbanksafraidtolend,businessescan’tborrow,anditisimpossiblefortheU.S.economytoresumeahealthy,durableexpansion.Meanwhile,regional

banksarestillfailingundertheweightofbadcommercialloansandhouseholdmortgages.Andanotherwaveofreal‐estateinsolvenciesandworthlessloanportfoliosiscomingfromthecommercialreal‐estatesector.

Indeed,muchoftherecentuptickineconomicactivityreflectsthegovernmentstimulusprograms,suchasthejust‐expired“cash‐for‐clunkers”programthatgavetheU.S.autoindustryatemporaryboost.Whilesomeoftheseprogramshelpbusinessesandhouseholdsintheshortrun,theyarealladdingtotheFederalbudgetdeficitandwillcomplicatetheFederalReserve’smonetarypolicydilemma.

Asaresult,theFedwillremainunderpressuretomaintainastimulativemonetarypolicywithlowrealinterestratesforsometimetocome–perhapsyears:Badnewsforthedollarandinflationbutmusictotheearsofgoldbulls.

TheFuturePriceofGold

Asmyclientsknow,Iam“extremelyoptimistic”onthegold‐priceoutlook—but,unlikemanyotherbullishanalysts,Ibelievethemetal’sascentwilltakeseveralyearstoreachitsnextlong‐termcyclicalpeak.

Inthemeantime,andpartlybecauseoftheactivityofETFinvestors,wecanexpecthighvolatilityandadifficultclimb,fraughtwithsharpreversalsalongthewaythatwill,attimes,causesomeobserverstowonderifthemarkethasalreadytoppedout.Ultimately,goldwillmostlikelyclimbintotheUS$2000to$3000range–butitcouldgoevenhighergiventherightconfluenceofeconomicandpoliticaldevelopments...orifalate‐cyclemaniaproducesafinalhyperbolicbubble

beforethegold‐pricecyclemovesintoitsnextbear‐marketphase.LadiesandGentleman,thankyouagainforyourattentionthisafternoon.Now,Iamlookingforwardtomeetingmanyofyoupersonally...andhearingyourthoughtsaboutthefutureofgold.

indiaspeech goldmarketsituation&outlook speechtothesixthannualindiainternationalgoldconvention...

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